2.Predicting Mortality and Cirrhosis-Related Complications with MELD3.0: A Multicenter Cohort Analysis
Jihye LIM ; Ji Hoon KIM ; Ahlim LEE ; Ji Won HAN ; Soon Kyu LEE ; Hyun YANG ; Heechul NAM ; Hae Lim LEE ; Do Seon SONG ; Sung Won LEE ; Hee Yeon KIM ; Jung Hyun KWON ; Chang Wook KIM ; U Im CHANG ; Soon Woo NAM ; Seok-Hwan KIM ; Pil Soo SUNG ; Jeong Won JANG ; Si Hyun BAE ; Jong Young CHOI ; Seung Kew YOON ; Myeong Jun SONG
Gut and Liver 2025;19(3):427-437
Background/Aims:
This study aimed to evaluate the performance of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) 3.0 for predicting mortality and liver-related complications compared with the Child-Pugh classification, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, the MELD, and the MELD sodium (MELDNa) score.
Methods:
We evaluated a multicenter retrospective cohort of incorporated patients with cirrhosis between 2013 and 2019. We conducted comparisons of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of the MELD3.0 and other models for predicting 3-month mortality. Additionally, we assessed the risk of cirrhosis-related complications according to the MELD3.0 score.
Results:
A total of 3,314 patients were included. The mean age was 55.9±11.3 years, and 70.2% of the patients were male. Within the initial 3 months, 220 patients (6.6%) died, and the MELD3.0had the best predictive performance among the tested models, with an AUROC of 0.851, outperforming the Child-Pugh classification, ALBI grade, MELD, and MELDNa. A high MELD3.0score was associated with an increased risk of mortality. Compared with that of the group with a MELD3.0 score <10 points, the adjusted hazard ratio of the group with a score of 10–20 pointswas 2.176, and that for the group with a score of ≥20 points was 4.892. Each 1-point increase inthe MELD3.0 score increased the risk of cirrhosis-related complications by 1.033-fold. The risk of hepatorenal syndrome showed the highest increase, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.149, followed by hepatic encephalopathy and ascites.
Conclusions
The MELD3.0 demonstrated robust prognostic performance in predicting mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Moreover, the MELD3.0 score was linked to cirrhosis-related complications, particularly those involving kidney function, such as hepatorenal syndrome and ascites.
3.Predicting Mortality and Cirrhosis-Related Complications with MELD3.0: A Multicenter Cohort Analysis
Jihye LIM ; Ji Hoon KIM ; Ahlim LEE ; Ji Won HAN ; Soon Kyu LEE ; Hyun YANG ; Heechul NAM ; Hae Lim LEE ; Do Seon SONG ; Sung Won LEE ; Hee Yeon KIM ; Jung Hyun KWON ; Chang Wook KIM ; U Im CHANG ; Soon Woo NAM ; Seok-Hwan KIM ; Pil Soo SUNG ; Jeong Won JANG ; Si Hyun BAE ; Jong Young CHOI ; Seung Kew YOON ; Myeong Jun SONG
Gut and Liver 2025;19(3):427-437
Background/Aims:
This study aimed to evaluate the performance of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) 3.0 for predicting mortality and liver-related complications compared with the Child-Pugh classification, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, the MELD, and the MELD sodium (MELDNa) score.
Methods:
We evaluated a multicenter retrospective cohort of incorporated patients with cirrhosis between 2013 and 2019. We conducted comparisons of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of the MELD3.0 and other models for predicting 3-month mortality. Additionally, we assessed the risk of cirrhosis-related complications according to the MELD3.0 score.
Results:
A total of 3,314 patients were included. The mean age was 55.9±11.3 years, and 70.2% of the patients were male. Within the initial 3 months, 220 patients (6.6%) died, and the MELD3.0had the best predictive performance among the tested models, with an AUROC of 0.851, outperforming the Child-Pugh classification, ALBI grade, MELD, and MELDNa. A high MELD3.0score was associated with an increased risk of mortality. Compared with that of the group with a MELD3.0 score <10 points, the adjusted hazard ratio of the group with a score of 10–20 pointswas 2.176, and that for the group with a score of ≥20 points was 4.892. Each 1-point increase inthe MELD3.0 score increased the risk of cirrhosis-related complications by 1.033-fold. The risk of hepatorenal syndrome showed the highest increase, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.149, followed by hepatic encephalopathy and ascites.
Conclusions
The MELD3.0 demonstrated robust prognostic performance in predicting mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Moreover, the MELD3.0 score was linked to cirrhosis-related complications, particularly those involving kidney function, such as hepatorenal syndrome and ascites.
4.Predicting Mortality and Cirrhosis-Related Complications with MELD3.0: A Multicenter Cohort Analysis
Jihye LIM ; Ji Hoon KIM ; Ahlim LEE ; Ji Won HAN ; Soon Kyu LEE ; Hyun YANG ; Heechul NAM ; Hae Lim LEE ; Do Seon SONG ; Sung Won LEE ; Hee Yeon KIM ; Jung Hyun KWON ; Chang Wook KIM ; U Im CHANG ; Soon Woo NAM ; Seok-Hwan KIM ; Pil Soo SUNG ; Jeong Won JANG ; Si Hyun BAE ; Jong Young CHOI ; Seung Kew YOON ; Myeong Jun SONG
Gut and Liver 2025;19(3):427-437
Background/Aims:
This study aimed to evaluate the performance of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) 3.0 for predicting mortality and liver-related complications compared with the Child-Pugh classification, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, the MELD, and the MELD sodium (MELDNa) score.
Methods:
We evaluated a multicenter retrospective cohort of incorporated patients with cirrhosis between 2013 and 2019. We conducted comparisons of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of the MELD3.0 and other models for predicting 3-month mortality. Additionally, we assessed the risk of cirrhosis-related complications according to the MELD3.0 score.
Results:
A total of 3,314 patients were included. The mean age was 55.9±11.3 years, and 70.2% of the patients were male. Within the initial 3 months, 220 patients (6.6%) died, and the MELD3.0had the best predictive performance among the tested models, with an AUROC of 0.851, outperforming the Child-Pugh classification, ALBI grade, MELD, and MELDNa. A high MELD3.0score was associated with an increased risk of mortality. Compared with that of the group with a MELD3.0 score <10 points, the adjusted hazard ratio of the group with a score of 10–20 pointswas 2.176, and that for the group with a score of ≥20 points was 4.892. Each 1-point increase inthe MELD3.0 score increased the risk of cirrhosis-related complications by 1.033-fold. The risk of hepatorenal syndrome showed the highest increase, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.149, followed by hepatic encephalopathy and ascites.
Conclusions
The MELD3.0 demonstrated robust prognostic performance in predicting mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Moreover, the MELD3.0 score was linked to cirrhosis-related complications, particularly those involving kidney function, such as hepatorenal syndrome and ascites.
6.Predicting Mortality and Cirrhosis-Related Complications with MELD3.0: A Multicenter Cohort Analysis
Jihye LIM ; Ji Hoon KIM ; Ahlim LEE ; Ji Won HAN ; Soon Kyu LEE ; Hyun YANG ; Heechul NAM ; Hae Lim LEE ; Do Seon SONG ; Sung Won LEE ; Hee Yeon KIM ; Jung Hyun KWON ; Chang Wook KIM ; U Im CHANG ; Soon Woo NAM ; Seok-Hwan KIM ; Pil Soo SUNG ; Jeong Won JANG ; Si Hyun BAE ; Jong Young CHOI ; Seung Kew YOON ; Myeong Jun SONG
Gut and Liver 2025;19(3):427-437
Background/Aims:
This study aimed to evaluate the performance of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) 3.0 for predicting mortality and liver-related complications compared with the Child-Pugh classification, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, the MELD, and the MELD sodium (MELDNa) score.
Methods:
We evaluated a multicenter retrospective cohort of incorporated patients with cirrhosis between 2013 and 2019. We conducted comparisons of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of the MELD3.0 and other models for predicting 3-month mortality. Additionally, we assessed the risk of cirrhosis-related complications according to the MELD3.0 score.
Results:
A total of 3,314 patients were included. The mean age was 55.9±11.3 years, and 70.2% of the patients were male. Within the initial 3 months, 220 patients (6.6%) died, and the MELD3.0had the best predictive performance among the tested models, with an AUROC of 0.851, outperforming the Child-Pugh classification, ALBI grade, MELD, and MELDNa. A high MELD3.0score was associated with an increased risk of mortality. Compared with that of the group with a MELD3.0 score <10 points, the adjusted hazard ratio of the group with a score of 10–20 pointswas 2.176, and that for the group with a score of ≥20 points was 4.892. Each 1-point increase inthe MELD3.0 score increased the risk of cirrhosis-related complications by 1.033-fold. The risk of hepatorenal syndrome showed the highest increase, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.149, followed by hepatic encephalopathy and ascites.
Conclusions
The MELD3.0 demonstrated robust prognostic performance in predicting mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Moreover, the MELD3.0 score was linked to cirrhosis-related complications, particularly those involving kidney function, such as hepatorenal syndrome and ascites.
8.Effect of Biliary Drainage on the Prognosis of Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Bile Duct Invasion
Keungmo YANG ; Hyun YANG ; Chang Wook KIM ; Hee Chul NAM ; Ji Hoon KIM ; Ahlim LEE ; U Im CHANG ; Jin Mo YANG ; Hae Lim LEE ; Jung Hyun KWON ; Soon Woo NAM ; Soon Kyu LEE ; Pil Soo SUNG ; Ji Won HAN ; Jeong Won JANG ; Si Hyun BAE ; Jong Young CHOI ; Seung Kew YOON ; Hee Yeon KIM
Gut and Liver 2024;18(5):877-887
Background/Aims:
Bile duct invasion (BDI) is rarely observed in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), leading to hyperbilirubinemia. However, the efficacy of pretreatment biliary drainage for HCC patients with BDI and obstructive jaundice is currently unclear. Thus, the aim of this study was to assess the effect of biliary drainage on the prognosis of these patients.
Methods:
We retrospectively enrolled a total of 200 HCC patients with BDI from multicenter cohorts. Patients without obstructive jaundice (n=99) and those who did not undergo HCC treatment (n=37) were excluded from further analysis. Finally, 64 patients with obstructive jaundice (43 subjected to drainage and 21 not subjected to drainage) were included. Propensity score matching was then conducted.
Results:
The biliary drainage group showed longer overall survival (median 10.13 months vs 4.43 months, p=0.004) and progression-free survival durations (median 7.00 months vs 1.97 months, p<0.001) than the non-drainage group. Multivariate analysis showed that biliary drainage was a significantly favorable prognostic factor for overall survival (hazard ratio, 0.42; p=0.006) and progression-free survival (hazard ratio, 0.30; p<0.001). Furthermore, in the evaluation of first response after HCC treatment, biliary drainage was beneficial (p=0.005). Remarkably, the durations of overall survival (p=0.032) and progression-free survival (p=0.004) were similar after propensity score matching.
Conclusions
Biliary drainage is an independent favorable prognostic factor for HCC patients with BDI and obstructive jaundice. Therefore, biliary drainage should be contemplated in the treatment of advanced HCC with BDI to improve survival outcomes.
9.Predictors of histologic remission in patients with biologic-naïve, moderate-to-severe ulcerative colitis treated with first-line biologic agents and small-molecule drugs: a single-center, retrospective cohort study
Kijae JO ; Kwang Woo KIM ; Hyun Jung LEE ; Jong Pil IM ; Joo Sung KIM ; Seong-Joon KOH
Intestinal Research 2024;22(4):453-463
Background/Aims:
The prevalence and incidence of ulcerative colitis (UC) in Korea is increasing. Each patient has a different disease course and treatment response. Recently, with the development of biologic agents, histological remission has become a treatment goal. In this study, we aimed to identify the predictors of histological remission after first-line biologic agent treatment in patients with biologic agent-naïve UC.
Methods:
We retrospectively analyzed the medical records of 92 patients who had been diagnosed with UC and treated with first-line biologic agent treatment at our center, between 2015 and 2022. The clinical characteristics, laboratory test results, and endoscopic and biopsy findings were analyzed. Histological remission was defined as the absence of cryptitis, crypt abscesses, and inflammatory cells on histology. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the predictors of histological remission after first-line treatment.
Results:
Of the total 92 patients, 25 (27.2%) achieved histological remission. Each cohort had a varied body mass index (BMI) distribution, with a statistically significant overweight ratio, as defined by the Asian-Pacific BMI category of 23–25 kg/m2, of 48.0% in the histological remission cohort (P= 0.026). A causal correlation between the overweight category and histological remission was confirmed (odds ratio, 3.883; 95% confidence interval, 1.141–13.212; P= 0.030).
Conclusions
We confirmed that the overweight category was a predictor of histological remission after first-line treatment with a biological agent. However, as BMI does not account for skeletal muscle mass, future studies are required to confirm the correlation between skeletal muscle mass and histological remission.
10.Impact of Crohn’s Disease on the Survival of Patients with Small-Bowel Adenocarcinoma in Korea: A Bicenter Cohort Study
Kyuwon KIM ; Kookhwan CHOI ; Sung Wook HWANG ; Jong Pil IM ; Byong Duk YE ; Joo Sung KIM ; Kyu Joo PARK ; Suk-Kyun YANG ; Seong-Joon KOH ; Sang Hyoung PARK ;
Gut and Liver 2023;17(4):581-590
Background/Aims:
Owing to the low prevalence of small-bowel adenocarcinoma (SBA), data on the impact of Crohn’s disease (CD) on the survival of patients with SBA are lacking. Therefore, we investigated this issue in this study.
Methods:
In this bicenter cohort study, patients with histologically confirmed SBA were retrospectively enrolled and classified into two groups: sporadic SBA and CD-associated SBA. Patients with duodenal SBA were excluded. Overall survival, disease-free survival, and factors associated with survival were analyzed.
Results:
Of 128 patients with SBA, 115 had sporadic SBA and 13 had CD-associated SBA. Ileal involvement and poorly differentiated tumors were more common in the CD-associated SBA group than in the sporadic SBA group (ileal involvement, 53.8% vs 22.6%; poor differentiation, 46.2% vs 14.8%; both p<0.05). In survival analysis, overall survival showed no statistical difference between the sporadic SBA and CD-associated SBA groups (p=0.370). However, when stratified by stage, the adjusted overall survival of the CD-associated SBA group was lower in patients with an advanced disease stage (p=0.029). Disease-free survival showed the same tendency, albeit without clinical significance (p=0.097). CD (hazard ratio [HR], 2.308; p=0.047), older age (≥65 yr) at SBA diagnosis (HR, 2.766; p=0.001), and stage III/IV disease (HR, 3.151; p<0.001) were factors associated with mortality.
Conclusions
The overall survival of patients with CD-associated SBA did not differ from that of patients with sporadic SBA. However, as CD is an independent risk factor for mortality, vigilant surveillance in high-risk patients may be crucial.

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