Objective To compare the performance of seasonal difference autoregressive moving average exogenous variable model (SARIMAX), backpropagation neural network (BPNN), long short-term memory network (LSTM), and various combination models in fitting and predicting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD), and to provide a reference for optimizing HFMD prediction and prevention and control decisions. Methods Taking the monthly HFMD incidence data in Changsha from 2010 to 2024 as the training set, and the monthly HFMD incidence data from January to August 2025 as the validation set, the single models, SARIMAX-BPNN, SARIMAX-LSTM and weight combination models were constructed respectively. The R², mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the model fitting and prediction performance. Results Based solely on MAPE, the LSTM model showed the best fitting and prediction performance. A comprehensive analysis of multiple indicators including R², MAPE, MAE, and RMSE indicated that the combination models had superior prediction performance. Compared with the LSTM, RMSE predicted by equal weight combination, different weight combination and SARIMAX-BPNN decreased by 40.97%, 37.50%, and 25.00%, respectively, while MAPE increased by 124.84%, 96.90%, and 89.69%, respectively. The fitting effect was as follows: LSTM > unequal weight combination > equal weight combination > SARIMAX-LSTM > SARIMAX-BPNN > BPNN > SARIMAX. The prediction performance was as follows: SARIMAX-BPNN > unequal weight combination > equal weight combination > LSTM > SARIMAX-LSTM > BPNN > SARIMAX. Conclusion SARIMAX-BPNN combination or weighted combination of multiple different models are two more robust combination strategies for predicting the incidence trend of hand, foot and mouth disease in Changsha.

Objective To explore median effective dose(ED50)of 0.375％ropivacaine based on the cross sectional area(CSA)of supraclavicular brachial plexus block(SCBPB)with L-shaped baffle intervention.Methods Patients scheduled for upper limb surgery from September 2023 to May 2024 at Ningbo NO.6 Hospital were enrolled.Patients were randomly divided into two groups:L-shaped baffle compression group(group L)and non-compression group(group C).CSA of supraclavicular brachial plexus was measured by ultrasound,and 0.375％ropivacaine was administered based on the CSA.The ED50 was determined by using the Dixon up-and-down sequential method,with an initial dose of 0.4 ml/mm2 and an incremental difference of 0.04ml/mm2.If the block was effective within 30 minutes,the next patient received a lower dose;If ineffective,a higher dose was administered.The process continued until seven cross-over points(ineffective to effective)were observed.ED50 and its 95％CI were calculated by using the Probit method.Adverse reactions,such as phrenic nerve paralysis,nerve injury,dyspnea were recorded.Results The ED50 of 0.375％ropivacaine for SCBPB in group C was 0.254 ml/mm2(95％CI:0.228-0.278),while in group L,it was 0.239 ml/mm2(95％CI:0.215-0.262),with no statistically significant difference between two groups(P＞0.05).The incidence of phrenic nerve paralysis in group L was significantly lower than that in group C(14.29％vs.41.67％,P＜0.05).No significant nerve injuries,dyspnea,or local anesthetic toxicity were observed in either group.Conclusion The ED50 of 0.375％ropivacaine for SCBPB with L-shaped baffle compression,based on the CSA of the brachial plexus,was 0.239 ml/mm2(95％CI:0.215-0.262).L-shaped baffle compression significantly reduced the incidence of phrenic nerve paralysis without notable side effects.

Objective To explore median effective dose(ED50)of 0.375％ropivacaine based on the cross sectional area(CSA)of supraclavicular brachial plexus block(SCBPB)with L-shaped baffle intervention.Methods Patients scheduled for upper limb surgery from September 2023 to May 2024 at Ningbo NO.6 Hospital were enrolled.Patients were randomly divided into two groups:L-shaped baffle compression group(group L)and non-compression group(group C).CSA of supraclavicular brachial plexus was measured by ultrasound,and 0.375％ropivacaine was administered based on the CSA.The ED50 was determined by using the Dixon up-and-down sequential method,with an initial dose of 0.4 ml/mm2 and an incremental difference of 0.04ml/mm2.If the block was effective within 30 minutes,the next patient received a lower dose;If ineffective,a higher dose was administered.The process continued until seven cross-over points(ineffective to effective)were observed.ED50 and its 95％CI were calculated by using the Probit method.Adverse reactions,such as phrenic nerve paralysis,nerve injury,dyspnea were recorded.Results The ED50 of 0.375％ropivacaine for SCBPB in group C was 0.254 ml/mm2(95％CI:0.228-0.278),while in group L,it was 0.239 ml/mm2(95％CI:0.215-0.262),with no statistically significant difference between two groups(P＞0.05).The incidence of phrenic nerve paralysis in group L was significantly lower than that in group C(14.29％vs.41.67％,P＜0.05).No significant nerve injuries,dyspnea,or local anesthetic toxicity were observed in either group.Conclusion The ED50 of 0.375％ropivacaine for SCBPB with L-shaped baffle compression,based on the CSA of the brachial plexus,was 0.239 ml/mm2(95％CI:0.215-0.262).L-shaped baffle compression significantly reduced the incidence of phrenic nerve paralysis without notable side effects.

Objective:To explore the gaze characteristics towards emotional portraits in children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder(ADHD),in order to reveal their potential unique patterns of emotional cognition.Methods:A case-control design was employed,including 81 children diagnosed with the DSM-5 ADHD and 57 normal control(NC)children.Emotional images from the Chinese Children's Emotional Image Library were used as stimuli.The Tobii Pro X3-120 eye-tracking device was utilized to record fixation count(FC)and fixation duration percentage(FDP)under a free-viewing paradigm.Mixed-effects ANOVA was applied to explore the effects of group,gaze region(eyes and mouth),and emotional attributes on gaze characteristics,controlling for gen-der and age.Results:The FC and FDP of ADHD children were lower than those of NC children,particularly in the eye region of non-negative emotional images(P＜0.05).However,no significant differences were observed be-tween the two groups when viewing negative emotional images(sadness and anger)(P＞0.05).NC children ex-hibited a significant emotional bias effect in their gaze behavior towards emotional portraits(P＜0.05),whereas ADHD group showed only slight differences between non-negative emotional images(adjusted P＜0.05),indica-ting a weaker overall emotional attention bias.Conclusion:Children with ADHD display reduced attention to non-negative emotional expressions and a diminished emotional attention bias,suggesting potential deficits in emotional processing during face perception.

Objective:To explore the gaze characteristics towards emotional portraits in children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder(ADHD),in order to reveal their potential unique patterns of emotional cognition.Methods:A case-control design was employed,including 81 children diagnosed with the DSM-5 ADHD and 57 normal control(NC)children.Emotional images from the Chinese Children's Emotional Image Library were used as stimuli.The Tobii Pro X3-120 eye-tracking device was utilized to record fixation count(FC)and fixation duration percentage(FDP)under a free-viewing paradigm.Mixed-effects ANOVA was applied to explore the effects of group,gaze region(eyes and mouth),and emotional attributes on gaze characteristics,controlling for gen-der and age.Results:The FC and FDP of ADHD children were lower than those of NC children,particularly in the eye region of non-negative emotional images(P＜0.05).However,no significant differences were observed be-tween the two groups when viewing negative emotional images(sadness and anger)(P＞0.05).NC children ex-hibited a significant emotional bias effect in their gaze behavior towards emotional portraits(P＜0.05),whereas ADHD group showed only slight differences between non-negative emotional images(adjusted P＜0.05),indica-ting a weaker overall emotional attention bias.Conclusion:Children with ADHD display reduced attention to non-negative emotional expressions and a diminished emotional attention bias,suggesting potential deficits in emotional processing during face perception.

Background::Carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and diameter, stiffness, and wave reflections, are independent and important clinical biomarkers and risk predictors for cardiovascular diseases. The purpose of the present study was to establish nationwide reference values of carotid properties for healthy Chinese adults and to explore potential clinical determinants.Methods::A total of 3053 healthy Han Chinese adults (1922 women) aged 18-79 years were enrolled at 28 collaborating tertiary centers throughout China between April 2021 and July 2022. The real-time tracking of common carotid artery walls was achieved by the radio frequency (RF) ultrasound system. The IMT, diameter, compliance coefficient, β stiffness, local pulse wave velocity (PWV), local systolic blood pressure, augmented pressure (AP), and augmentation index (AIx) were then automatically measured and reported. Data were stratified by age groups and sex. The relationships between age and carotid property parameters were analyzed by Jonckheere-Terpstra test and simple linear regressions. The major clinical determinants of carotid properties were identified by Pearson’s correlation, multiple linear regression, and analyses of covariance.Results::All the parameters of carotid properties demonstrated significantly age-related trajectories. Women showed thinner IMT, smaller carotid diameter, larger AP, and AIx than men. The β stiffness and PWV were significantly higher in men than women before forties, but the differences reversed after that. The increase rate of carotid IMT (5.5 μm/year in women and 5.8 μm/year in men) and diameter (0.03 mm/year in both men and women) were similar between men and women. For the stiffness and wave reflections, women showed significantly larger age-related variations than men as demonstrated by steeper regression slopes (all P for age by sex interaction <0.05). The blood pressures, body mass index (BMI), and triglyceride levels were identified as major clinical determinants of carotid properties with adjustment of age and sex. Conclusions::The age- and sex-specific reference values of carotid properties measured by RF ultrasound for healthy Chinese adults were established. The blood pressures, BMI, and triglyceride levels should be considered for clinical application of corresponding reference values.

Objective:To evaluate the clinical efficacy and safety of retrograde intrarenal surgery(RIRS) and miniaturized percutaneous nephrolithotomy(mini-PCNL) in the treatment of lower pole kidney stones with a diameter <1.5 cm.Methods:The data of 95 patients with lower pole kidney stones with a diameter <1.5 cm treated in Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University from June 2017 to October 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. According to different surgical methods, the patients were divided into RIRS group and mini-PCNL group. There were 51 cases in RIRS group and 44 cases in mini-PCNL group. There was no significant difference in age [(48.2±11.4) years vs. (46.4±14.1) years], body mass index [(21.9±2.4) kg/m 2 vs. (20.7±3.2) kg/m 2], gender [male/female: 37/14 vs. 24/20], stone CT [(746.42±164.24)HU vs. (858.62±148.72)HU], creatinine [(71.3±21.6)μmol/L vs. (63.5±20.3)μmol/L], stone location (left/right: 26/25 vs. 23/21), stone diameter [(10.5±2.1) mm vs. (12.5±2.4) mm], infundibulopelvic angle [(43.32±9.42) degrees vs. (43.82±10.34) degrees], infundibular length [(24.92±4.85)mm vs. (24.37±5.26)mm] and infundibular [(9.26±3.04)mm vs.(9.46±2.94)mm] between the two groups ( P>0.05). The operation time, stone-free rate, hospital stay and postoperative complications between the two groups were compared. Results:Compared with the mini-PCNL group, the RIRS group had significantly smaller decrease in postoperative hemoglobin [(1.53±0.92) g/L vs. (4.54±2.46) g/L, P<0.05], the postoperative hospital stay was shorter [(2.52±0.94) d vs. (4.51±1.25)d, P<0.05], and postoperative visual analogue score was lower [(2.43±0.92) vs. (3.24±0.76), P<0.05]. The operation time of the mini-PCNL group was shorter than that of the RIRS group [(42.32±13.28) min vs. (54.24±14.43)min, P<0.05]. There was no significant difference in postoperative complications [5.9% (3/51) vs. 11.4% (5/44), P>0.05], postoperative cveatinine [(71.3±21.6) μmol/L vs. (63.5±20.3) μmol/L, P>0.05], postoperative intestinal function recovery time [(25.46±10.28)h vs. (32.43±9.25)h, P>0.05] and stone-free rate [92.2% (47/51) vs. 97.7% (43/ 44), P>0.05] between the two groups. Conclusions:Both RIRS and mini-PCNL are effective and safe minimally invasive treatments for lower pole kidney stones with a diameter < 1.5 cm. RIRS has shorter operation time, less blood loss, lower pain score and faster postoperative recovery.

Objective:To understand the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of human infection with avian influenza A(H3N8) virus and the molecular biological characteristics of the pathogen, and provide scientific evidence for the prevention and control of human infection with avian influenza A(H3N8) virus.Methods:An epidemiological investigation was conducted for a case of human infection with avian influenza A(H3N8) virus in Changsha in May 2022 to collect the information about exposure history, route of infection, onset and treatment, potential contacts and other possible exposures for a descriptive analysis. Nucleic acid detection and gene sequencing were used to detect the pathogen and analyze the genetic characteristics.Results:The case had a history of exposure to live poultry trading market 6 days before the onset of illness. Subtypes H3 and N8 of avian influenza virus were detected in live poultry markets. Deep gene sequencing showed that the virus had adaptive mutations in mammals, reduced sensitivity to alkamine agent, and no resistance mutations related to neuraminidase inhibitors and polymerase inhibitors were detected.Conclusion:The case was infected due to exposure to the live poultry market environment contaminated by avian influenza A(H3N8) virus, and no human to human transmission was found.

ObjectiveTo explore the association between dietary retinol intake and prognosis of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. MethodsThe study enrolled 388 cases with primary esophageal squamous cell carcinoma that was pathologically diagnosed in the first affiliated hospital of Fujian medical university and the cancer hospital of Fujian medical university from July 2014 to August 2019. Chi-square test was used to determine the relationship between retinol and patients' characteristics. Kruskal-Wallis rank sum test was used to analyze the relationship between retinol and multiple nutrients. Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to explore the association between dietary retinol and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. ResultsPatients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma did not significantly differ in gender， age， TNM stage， tumor length or nutrient intake by different retinol intakes （P>0.05）. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the high retinol intake group had a better prognosis （overal survial：HR=0.279，95%CI：0.150‒0.520，P<0.001；disease-free survival：HR=0.306，95%CI：0.181‒0.516，P<0.001）. ConclusionHigh dietary retinol intake may improve the prognosis of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

Objective:To understand and predict the situation of occupational diseases in Changsha, and to provide theoretical basis for the scientific formulation of occupational diseases prevention, control strategies and measures.Methods:In April 2019, the data of occupational diseases incidences from 2010 to 2018 were collected. The original GM (1, 1) grey model and buffer operator improved model were established, and compared their prediction effect. The model with the smallest average relative error was selected to predict the incidence of occupational diseases during 2019-2023.Results:The relative accuracy of the original GM (1, 1) grey model and the first-order and second-order buffer operator improved model were 80.92%, 97.71%, 99.64%, respectively. And the c values were 0.74, 0.28, 0.09, and the P values were 0.67, 1.00, 1.00, respectively. It was predicted that the incidence number of occupational diseases in Changsha during 2019-2023 would be 40, 39, 39, 38, 37, respectively. Conclusion:The buffer operator improved model is suitable for the prediction of the original data series with high volatility, and it can fit the incidence of occupational diseases in Changsha.