1.Risk prediction models for delirium after adult cardiac surgery: A systematic review and meta-analysis
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2026;33(03):444-453
Objective To systematically evaluate the risk prediction models for postoperative delirium in adults with cardiac surgery. Methods The SinoMed, CNKI, Wanfang, VIP, PubMed, EMbase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library databases were searched to collect studies on risk prediction models for postoperative delirium in cardiac surgery published up to January 29, 2025. Two researchers screened the literature according to inclusion and exclusion criteria, used the PROBAST bias tool to assess the quality of the literature, and conducted a meta-analysis of common predictors in the model using Stata 17.0 software. Results A total of 21 articles were included, establishing 45 models with 28733 patients. Age, cardiopulmonary bypass time, history of diabetes, history of cerebrovascular disease, and gender were the top five common predictors. The area under the curve (AUC) of the 45 models ranged from 0.544 to 0.98. Fourteen out of the 21 studies had good applicability, while the applicability of the remaining seven was unclear; 20 studies had a high risk of bias. Meta-analysis showed that the incidence of postoperative delirium in adults with cardiac surgery was 18.6% [95%CI (15.7%, 21.6%)], and age [OR=1.045 (1.036, 1.054), P<0.001], history of cerebrovascular disease [OR=1.758 (1.459, 2.057), P<0.001], gender [OR=1.732 (1.430, 2.034), P<0.001], mini-mental state examination score [OR=3.930 (1.859, 8.309), P<0.001], and length of ICU stay [OR=5.586 (4.289, 6.883), P<0.001] were independent influencing factors for postoperative delirium after cardiac surgery. Conclusion The risk prediction models for postoperative delirium after cardiac surgery have good predictive performance, but there is a high overall risk of bias. In the future, large-sample, multicenter, high-quality prospective clinical studies should be conducted to construct the optimal risk prediction model for postoperative delirium in adults with cardiac surgery, aiming to identify and prevent the occurrence of postoperative delirium as early as possible.
3.Preliminary study on the quantitative assessment model of mitral regurgitation in echocardiography based on fully convolutional networks: automatic identification and measurement of regurgitant radius
Lu ZHONG ; Hongning SONG ; Bo HU ; Qing DENG ; Jinling CHEN ; Qing ZHOU ; Fengxia JIANG ; Sheng CAO
Chinese Journal of Ultrasonography 2025;34(2):98-106
Objective:To develop an artificial intelligence system using fully convolutional neural networks(FCN)to assist echocardiographers in the quantitative assessment of mitral regurgitation(MR)severity.Methods:From August 2021 to June 2024,echocardiographic images of 441 patients with MR were prospectively collected from Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University and the Central Hospital of Wuhan. After screening,a total of 269 patients(4 917 frames)were included in the study. Of these,3 644 frames(128 patients)of apical four-chamber color Doppler MR flow convergence images from Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University were selected as the training/validation set,while images from 121 patients(813 frames)were used as the internal test set. Additionally,images from 20 patients(460 frames)from the Central Hospital of Wuhan were selected as the external test set. The FCN algorithm was employed to capture features and segment the MR color region on the left atrial side,simultaneously outputting the regurgitant radius(r)for the calculation of the effective regurgitant orifice area and regurgitant volume. The severity of MR was then classified according to the 2017 guidelines of the American Society of Echocardiography. The segmentation and classification performance of the model was evaluated,and the measurement results of the AI system was compared with that of both senior and junior physicians.Results:In the internal test set,the accuracy of r identification for cases classified as Grade Ⅰ to Ⅳ was 0.48,0.81,0.86,and 0.87,respectively. In the external test set,the accuracy of r identification for cases classified as Grade Ⅰ to Ⅳ was 0.60,0.77,0.64,and 0.77,respectively. The average accuracy of MR classification in the internal and external test sets was 0.91 and 0.88,respectively.Conclusions:The FCN model is capable of segmenting the left atrial side regurgitant areas in apical four-chamber heart color Doppler images,aiding physicians in obtaining quantitative assessment parameters for MR,and assisting junior physicians in accurately assessing the severity of MR.
4.Risk factors for delayed hemorrhage in patients with early gastric carcinoma after endoscopic submucosal dissection and its predictive value
Jinling GUO ; Xiuning ZHANG ; Lu LIU ; Xulei ZHANG ; Dan LI ; Heqian GAO
China Journal of Endoscopy 2025;31(9):62-68
Objective To analyze the risk factors for delayed hemorrhage in patients with early gastric carcinoma(EGC)after endoscopic submucosal dissection(ESD),as well as to explore the predictive value of predictive models.Methods The clinical data of 386 EGC treated with ESD patients from July 2019 to March 2024 were retrospectively analyzed.They were followed up for a short period of time(24 h~30 d postoperatively)after ESD,and were divided into the group of occurrence(50 cases)and the group of non-occurrence(336 cases)according to the occurrence or non-occurrence of delayed hemorrhage.To understand the clinical data of the patients,multivariate Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors for delayed hemorrhage in patients with EGC after ESD,and plot receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC curve)to analyze the predicted value.Results The proportions of cardia gastric fundus,lesion diameter ≥ 3 cm,submucosa with fibrosis,coarse blood vessels,and having ulcer or scar in the occurrence group were significantly higher than those in the non-occurrence group,the differences were statistically significant(P<0.05).The results of multivariate Logistic regression analysis(with an introduction level of 0.05)showed that the lesion location was cardia-gastric fundus(OR=1.088,95%CI:1.040~1.138),the diameter of the lesion was ≥3 cm(OR=1.095,95%CI:1.057~1.135),and fibrosis under the mucosa(OR=1.130,95%CI:1.061~1.203),thick blood vessels under the mucosa(OR=1.177,95%CI:1.116~1.241),and the presence of ulcer or scar(OR=1.082,95%CI:1.057~1.108)were the risk factors for the occurrence of delayed hemorrhage in patients with EGC after ESD(P<0.05).A prediction model was established:Logit(P)=-9.238+Location of lesion as cardia-gastric fundus × 0.084+Diameter of lesion ≥ 3 cm× 0.091+Submucosal with fibrosis × 0.122+Submucosal with thick blood vessels × 0.163+Ulcer or scar×0.079(P<0.05),the likelihood ratio test yielded x2=131.09,DF=8,P<0.05,which indicated that the constructed prediction model was valid.Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed a good model fit(P>0.05).The ROC curve showed an area under the curve(AUC)value of 0.929 at a cutoff value of 12.00,with a sensitivity of 88.00%(95%CI:0.757~0.955)and a specificity of 83.04%(95%CI:0.780~0.869).Conclusion Postoperative delayed hemorrhage in patients with EGC treated with ESD is associated with cardia-gastric fundus,lesion diameter ≥3 cm,submucosal fibrosis,thick blood vessels,and the presence of ulcer or scar,and the prediction value of the prediction model constructed accordingly is good.
5.Preliminary study on the quantitative assessment model of mitral regurgitation in echocardiography based on fully convolutional networks: automatic identification and measurement of regurgitant radius
Lu ZHONG ; Hongning SONG ; Bo HU ; Qing DENG ; Jinling CHEN ; Qing ZHOU ; Fengxia JIANG ; Sheng CAO
Chinese Journal of Ultrasonography 2025;34(2):98-106
Objective:To develop an artificial intelligence system using fully convolutional neural networks(FCN)to assist echocardiographers in the quantitative assessment of mitral regurgitation(MR)severity.Methods:From August 2021 to June 2024,echocardiographic images of 441 patients with MR were prospectively collected from Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University and the Central Hospital of Wuhan. After screening,a total of 269 patients(4 917 frames)were included in the study. Of these,3 644 frames(128 patients)of apical four-chamber color Doppler MR flow convergence images from Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University were selected as the training/validation set,while images from 121 patients(813 frames)were used as the internal test set. Additionally,images from 20 patients(460 frames)from the Central Hospital of Wuhan were selected as the external test set. The FCN algorithm was employed to capture features and segment the MR color region on the left atrial side,simultaneously outputting the regurgitant radius(r)for the calculation of the effective regurgitant orifice area and regurgitant volume. The severity of MR was then classified according to the 2017 guidelines of the American Society of Echocardiography. The segmentation and classification performance of the model was evaluated,and the measurement results of the AI system was compared with that of both senior and junior physicians.Results:In the internal test set,the accuracy of r identification for cases classified as Grade Ⅰ to Ⅳ was 0.48,0.81,0.86,and 0.87,respectively. In the external test set,the accuracy of r identification for cases classified as Grade Ⅰ to Ⅳ was 0.60,0.77,0.64,and 0.77,respectively. The average accuracy of MR classification in the internal and external test sets was 0.91 and 0.88,respectively.Conclusions:The FCN model is capable of segmenting the left atrial side regurgitant areas in apical four-chamber heart color Doppler images,aiding physicians in obtaining quantitative assessment parameters for MR,and assisting junior physicians in accurately assessing the severity of MR.
6.Risk factors for delayed hemorrhage in patients with early gastric carcinoma after endoscopic submucosal dissection and its predictive value
Jinling GUO ; Xiuning ZHANG ; Lu LIU ; Xulei ZHANG ; Dan LI ; Heqian GAO
China Journal of Endoscopy 2025;31(9):62-68
Objective To analyze the risk factors for delayed hemorrhage in patients with early gastric carcinoma(EGC)after endoscopic submucosal dissection(ESD),as well as to explore the predictive value of predictive models.Methods The clinical data of 386 EGC treated with ESD patients from July 2019 to March 2024 were retrospectively analyzed.They were followed up for a short period of time(24 h~30 d postoperatively)after ESD,and were divided into the group of occurrence(50 cases)and the group of non-occurrence(336 cases)according to the occurrence or non-occurrence of delayed hemorrhage.To understand the clinical data of the patients,multivariate Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors for delayed hemorrhage in patients with EGC after ESD,and plot receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC curve)to analyze the predicted value.Results The proportions of cardia gastric fundus,lesion diameter ≥ 3 cm,submucosa with fibrosis,coarse blood vessels,and having ulcer or scar in the occurrence group were significantly higher than those in the non-occurrence group,the differences were statistically significant(P<0.05).The results of multivariate Logistic regression analysis(with an introduction level of 0.05)showed that the lesion location was cardia-gastric fundus(OR=1.088,95%CI:1.040~1.138),the diameter of the lesion was ≥3 cm(OR=1.095,95%CI:1.057~1.135),and fibrosis under the mucosa(OR=1.130,95%CI:1.061~1.203),thick blood vessels under the mucosa(OR=1.177,95%CI:1.116~1.241),and the presence of ulcer or scar(OR=1.082,95%CI:1.057~1.108)were the risk factors for the occurrence of delayed hemorrhage in patients with EGC after ESD(P<0.05).A prediction model was established:Logit(P)=-9.238+Location of lesion as cardia-gastric fundus × 0.084+Diameter of lesion ≥ 3 cm× 0.091+Submucosal with fibrosis × 0.122+Submucosal with thick blood vessels × 0.163+Ulcer or scar×0.079(P<0.05),the likelihood ratio test yielded x2=131.09,DF=8,P<0.05,which indicated that the constructed prediction model was valid.Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed a good model fit(P>0.05).The ROC curve showed an area under the curve(AUC)value of 0.929 at a cutoff value of 12.00,with a sensitivity of 88.00%(95%CI:0.757~0.955)and a specificity of 83.04%(95%CI:0.780~0.869).Conclusion Postoperative delayed hemorrhage in patients with EGC treated with ESD is associated with cardia-gastric fundus,lesion diameter ≥3 cm,submucosal fibrosis,thick blood vessels,and the presence of ulcer or scar,and the prediction value of the prediction model constructed accordingly is good.
7.Effects of treadmill exercise on osteoporosis and wnt/beta-catenin signal pathway in aged rats
Linwei YIN ; Xiarong HUANG ; Mengjian QU ; Lu YANG ; Jinling WANG ; Feiyang JIA ; Yang LIAO ; Jun ZHOU
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2024;28(2):231-236
BACKGROUND:Exercise training can improve osteoporosis,but its effects and mechanisms on senile osteoporosis are not fully understood. OBJECTIVE:To observe the effect of treadmill exercise on osteoporosis and wnt/β-catenin signal pathway in aged rats. METHODS:Sixteen 24-month-old male Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly divided into osteoporosis group(n=8)and treadmill group(n=8)and eight 6-month-old male Sprague-Dawley rats were used as young control group.The model of senile osteoporosis was replicated by natural aging and the rats in the treadmill group were treated with treadmill exercise once a day,5 days a week,for 8 weeks.Levels of bone metabolic markers such as type I collagen cross-linked C-terminal peptide,tartrate resistant acid phosphatase,osteocalcin and bone specific alkaline phosphatase were detected by ELISA;bone mineral density of the left femur and L5 was measured by dual energy X-ray;bone scanning and bone microstructure quantitative analysis were performed by bone micro-CT;and the mRNA and protein expression levels of wnt3a,β-catenin,LRP5,DKK1 and GSK3β were detected by RT-PCR and western blot,respectively. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:Compared with the young control group,the osteoporosis group showed a reduction in serum bone specific alkaline phosphatase and osteocalcin levels(P<0.05),bone mineral density of the femur and L5,the number of tibia and L4 bone trabeculae,bone volume,bone volume fraction(P<0.05),and mRNA and protein expression of wnt3a,β-catenin,and LRP5 in bone marrow tissue(P<0.05)as well as an increase in serum levels of tartrate resistant acid phosphatase and type I collagen cross-linked C-terminal peptide(P<0.05),the intertrabecular space between the tibia and L4,structural model index(P<0.05),and mRNA and protein expression of DKK1 and GSK3 β in bone marrow tissue(P<0.05).In addition to the reduced number of trabeculae in the tibia and L4 vertebrae,the trabeculae were structurally disturbed and sparsely aligned and fractured.Compared with the osteoporosis group,the treadmill group showed an increase in serum bone specific alkaline phosphatase and osteocalcin levels(P<0.05),bone mineral density of the femur and L5(P<0.05),the number of tibial trabeculae,bone volume,bone volume fraction(P<0.05),mRNA and protein expression of wnt3a,β-catenin,and LRP5 in bone marrow tissue(P<0.05)but a reduction in the serum levels of tartrate resistant acid phosphatase and type I collagen cross-linked C-terminal peptide,L4 trabecular space,tibial trabecular space,structural model index,and mRNA and protein expression of DKK1 and GSK3 β in bone marrow tissue(P<0.05).In addition to the increased number of tibial and L4 trabeculae,the trabeculae were arranged in a regular and dense pattern and were connected to a network.To conclude,treadmill exercise may improve osteoporosis in aged rats by activating the wnt/β-catenin signal pathway.
8.Construction and Testing of Health LifeStyle Evidence (HLSE)
Chen TIAN ; Yong WANG ; Yilong YAN ; Yafei LIU ; Yao LU ; Mingyao SUN ; Jianing LIU ; Yan MA ; Jinling NING ; Ziying YE ; Qianji CHENG ; Ying LI ; Jiajie HUANG ; Shuihua YANG ; Yiyun WANG ; Bo TONG ; Jiale LU ; Long GE
Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital 2024;15(6):1413-1421
Healthy lifestyles and good living habits are effective strategies and important approaches to prevent chronic non-communicable diseases. With the development of evidence-based medicine, the evidence translation system has made some achievements in clinical practice. There is, however, no comprehensive, professional and efficient system for translating lifestyle evidence globally. Therefore, the Health Lifestyle Evidence (HLSE) Group of Lanzhou University constructed the HLSE Evidence Translation System (
9.Method for Developing Patient Decision Aid in China
Yao LU ; Qian ZHANG ; Qianji CHENG ; Jianing LIU ; Mingyao SUN ; Jinling NING ; Jiajie HUANG ; Simeng REN ; Wenzheng ZHANG ; Yajie LIU ; Xiyuan DENG ; Jinhui TIAN ; Jie LIU ; Long GE
Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital 2024;15(6):1422-1431
To systematically construct a guideline to provide a methodological guide for researchers to develop patient decision aids. Through a literature review of international methodological guidance for developing patient decision aids, sorting out the similarities and differences in the processes and methods for developing patient decision aids, and combining them with the topic discussion of the working group, the initial guideline was drafted. A total of 13 guidances was included, with the initial version containing 3 phases, 13 steps, and 48 points. We invited 19 multidisciplinary domain experts for forming consensus. The final version of the guideline contains 3 phases, 11 steps, and 24 points. The guideline has great potential to guide the development of patient decision aids in China and is expected to fill the methodological gap in the field. In the future, several rounds of pilot testing of the guideline based on specific decision issues will be conducted, and the guideline will be further revised and improved.
10.Applications and Challenges of Adaptive Platform Trial
Yan MA ; Qianji CHENG ; Yao LU ; Jinling NING ; Long GE
Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital 2024;15(5):1157-1164
Adaptive design, with advantages such as dynamically adjusting trial plans, reducing resource waste, and improving trial efficiency, has broken through the competitive situation of new drug development and gradually met the needs of clinical research. In recent years, the use of adaptive design in platform trials as an innovative research model has added impetus to new drug development. This article outlines the research progress, contents and characteristics, common design types, statistical analysis, and case interpretation of adaptive design, and introduces the concept, types, and applications of adaptive platform trials, with the hope of providing scientific reference for further exploration of clinical trials and new drug development.

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