1.Unveiling the molecular and cellular links between obstructive sleep apnea-hypopnea syndrome and vascular aging.
Wei LIU ; Le ZHANG ; Wenhui LIAO ; Huiguo LIU ; Wukaiyang LIANG ; Jinhua YAN ; Yi HUANG ; Tao JIANG ; Qian WANG ; Cuntai ZHANG
Chinese Medical Journal 2025;138(2):155-171
Vascular aging (VA) is a common etiology of various chronic diseases and represents a major public health concern. Intermittent hypoxia (IH) associated with obstructive sleep apnea-hypopnea syndrome (OSAHS) is a primary pathological and physiological driver of OSAHS-induced systemic complications. A substantial proportion of OSAHS patients, estimated to be between 40% and 80%, have comorbidities such as hypertension, heart failure, coronary artery disease, pulmonary hypertension, atrial fibrillation, aneurysm, and stroke, all of which are closely associated with VA. This review examines the molecular and cellular features common to both OSAHS and VA, highlighting decreased melatonin secretion, impaired autophagy, increased apoptosis, increased inflammation and pyroptosis, increased oxidative stress, accelerated telomere shortening, accelerated stem cell depletion, metabolic disorders, imbalanced protein homeostasis, epigenetic alterations, and dysregulated neurohormonal signaling. The accumulation and combination of these features may underlie the pathophysiological link between OSAHS and VA, but the exact mechanisms by which OSAHS affects VA may require further investigation. Taken together, these findings suggest that OSAHS may serve as a novel risk factor for VA and related vascular disorders, and that targeting these features may offer therapeutic potential to mitigate the vascular risks associated with OSAHS.
Humans
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Sleep Apnea, Obstructive/pathology*
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Aging/physiology*
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Oxidative Stress/physiology*
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Animals
2.Strychni Semen and its active compounds promote axon regeneration following peripheral nerve injury by suppressing myeloperoxidase in the dorsal root ganglia.
Yan ZHANG ; Xin-Yue ZHAO ; Meng-Ting LIU ; Zhu-Chen ZHOU ; Hui-Bin CHENG ; Xu-Hong JIANG ; Yan-Rong ZHENG ; Zhong CHEN
Journal of Integrative Medicine 2025;23(2):169-181
OBJECTIVE:
Treating peripheral nerve injury (PNI) presents a clinical challenge due to limited axon regeneration. Strychni Semen, a traditional Chinese medicine, is clinically used for numbness and hemiplegia. However, its role in promoting functional recovery after PNI and the related mechanisms have not yet been systematically studied.
METHODS:
A mouse model of sciatic nerve crush (SNC) injury was established and the mice received drug treatment via intragastric gavage, followed by behavioral assessments (adhesive removal test, hot-plate test and Von Frey test). Transcriptomic analyses were performed to examine gene expression in the dorsal root ganglia (DRGs) from the third to the sixth lumbar vertebrae, so as to identify the significantly differentially expressed genes. Immunofluorescence staining was used to assess the expression levels of superior cervical ganglia neural-specific 10 protein (SCG10). The ultra-trace protein detection technique was used to evaluate changes in gene expression levels.
RESULTS:
Strychni Semen and its active compounds (brucine and strychnine) improved functional recovery in mice following SNC injury. Transcriptomic data indicated that Strychni Semen and its active compounds initiated transcriptional reprogramming that impacted cellular morphology and extracellular matrix remodeling in DRGs after SNC, suggesting potential roles in promoting axon regeneration. Imaging data further confirmed that Strychni Semen and its active compounds facilitated axon regrowth in SNC-injured mice. By integrating protein-protein interaction predictions, ultra-trace protein detection, and molecular docking analysis, we identified myeloperoxidase as a potentially critical factor in the axon regenerative effects conferred by Strychni Semen and its active compounds.
CONCLUSION
Strychni Semen and its active compounds enhance sensory function by promoting axonal regeneration after PNI. These findings establish a foundation for the future applications of Strychni Semen and highlight novel therapeutic strategies and drug targets for axon regeneration. Please cite this article as: Zhang Y, Zhao XY, Liu MT, Zhou ZC, Cheng HB, Jiang XH, Zheng YR, Chen Z. Strychni Semen and its active compounds promote axon regeneration following peripheral nerve injury by suppressing myeloperoxidase in the dorsal root ganglia. J Integr Med. 2025; 23(2): 169-181.
Animals
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Nerve Regeneration/drug effects*
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Mice
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Peripheral Nerve Injuries/physiopathology*
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Male
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Ganglia, Spinal/enzymology*
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Axons/physiology*
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Peroxidase/antagonists & inhibitors*
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Mice, Inbred C57BL
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Drugs, Chinese Herbal/pharmacology*
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Disease Models, Animal
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Strychnine/pharmacology*
3.Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi improve physiological metabolism and ameliorate root damage of Coleus scutellarioides under cadmium stress.
Yanan HOU ; Fan JIANG ; Shuyang ZHOU ; Dingyin CHEN ; Yijie ZHU ; Yining MIAO ; Kai CENG ; Yifang WANG ; Min WU ; Peng LIU
Chinese Journal of Biotechnology 2025;41(2):680-692
Soil cadmium pollution can adversely affect the cultivation of the ornamental plant, Coleus scutellarioides. Upon cadmium contamination of the soil, the growth of C. scutellarioides is impeded, and it may even succumb to the toxic accumulation of cadmium. In this study, we investigated the effects of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) on the adaptation of C. scutellarioides to cadmium stress, by measuring the physiological metabolism and the degree of root damage of C. scutellarioides, with Aspergillus oryzae as the test fungi. The results indicated that cadmium stress increased the activity of superoxide dismutase (SOD), peroxidase (POD), and catalase (CAT), and the content of malondialdehyde (MDA) and proline (Pro) within the cells of C. scutellarioides, but inhibited mycorrhizal infestation rate, root vigour and growth rate to a great degree. With the same cadmium concentration, the inoculation of AMF significantly improved the physiological indexes of C. scutellarioides. The maximum decrease of MDA content was 42.16%, and the content of secondary metabolites rosemarinic acid and anthocyanosides could be increased by up to 27.43% and 25.72%, respectively. Meanwhile, the increase of root vigour was as high as 35.35%, and the DNA damage of the root system was obviously repaired. In conclusion, the inoculation of AMF can promote the accumulation of secondary metabolites, alleviate root damage, and enhance the tolerance to cadmium stress in C. scutellarioides.
Cadmium/toxicity*
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Mycorrhizae/physiology*
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Plant Roots/drug effects*
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Soil Pollutants/toxicity*
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Stress, Physiological
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Superoxide Dismutase/metabolism*
4.Quantitative trait locus(QTL) mapping and candidate gene expression analysis of cold tolerance of rice at plumule and seedling stages.
Beibei ZHAO ; Zhining ZHANG ; Yanan JIANG ; Chengxiang HU ; Luyi ZHANG ; Jun LIU ; Jiangmin XU ; Yuexing WANG ; Yuchun RAO
Chinese Journal of Biotechnology 2025;41(10):3939-3955
Rice (Oryza sativa L.), as a thermophilic crop, is highly susceptible to cold stress during its growth process. Chilling injury at the plumule stage and seedling stage often affects the morphological development and leads to yield reduction of rice. The exploration and utilization of cold tolerance genes are among the most direct and effective approaches to address cold stress in rice. To identify quantitative trait loci (QTLs) associated with cold tolerance at plumule and seedling stages, in this study, we measured the seedling rates and survived seedling rates of the indica rice cultivar 'HZ', the japonica cultivar 'Nekken2', and their 120 recombinant inbred lines (RILs) under cold stress. A previously constructed high-density genetic linkage map was used for the mapping of the QTLs conferring cold tolerance at the plumule and seedling stages. A total of 4 QTLs for plumule-stage cold tolerance and 9 QTLs for seedling-stage cold tolerance were detected, with the maximum limit of detection reaching 5.20. Notably, a genetically overlapping QTL for both plumule and seedling stages was identified on chromosome 8, spanning a physical interval of 24 432 953-25 295 129 bp. Candidate genes within the detected QTL intervals were screened, and quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) was conducted to analyze the gene expression during the plumule and seedling stages. The results revealed that LOC_Os03g06570, LOC_Os03g07100, LOC_Os06g08280, LOC_Os08g38440, LOC_Os08g39100, and LOC_Os08g39540 exhibited significantly differential expression between the parental lines. These genes were either significantly downregulated or upregulated under cold stress. Among them, the first three gene (LOC_Os03g06570, LOC_Os03g07100, and LOC_Os06g08280) were hypothesized to be key candidates regulating the cold tolerance of rice seedlings, while the latter three genes (LOC_Os08g38440, LOC_Os08g39100, and LOC_Os08g39540) were identified as comprehensive regulators of cold tolerance during both plumule and seedling stages. These findings lay a foundation for the fine mapping and cloning of cold tolerance genes at the plumule and seedling stages, providing valuable insights for breeding cold-tolerant rice varieties.
Quantitative Trait Loci/genetics*
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Oryza/growth & development*
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Seedlings/growth & development*
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Cold Temperature
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Chromosome Mapping
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Gene Expression Regulation, Plant
5.Erratum: Author correction to "Up-regulation of glyclipid transfer protein by bicyclol causes spontaneous restriction of hepatitis C virus replication" Acta Pharm Sin B 9 (2019) 769-781.
Menghao HUANG ; Hu LI ; Rong XUE ; Jianrui LI ; Lihua WANG ; Junjun CHENG ; Zhouyi WU ; Wenjing LI ; Jinhua CHEN ; Xiaoqin LV ; Qiang LI ; Pei LAN ; Limin ZHAO ; Yongfeng YANG ; Zonggen PENG ; Jiandong JIANG
Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica B 2025;15(3):1721-1721
[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.apsb.2019.01.013.].
6.Changing resistance profiles of Haemophilus influenzae and Moraxella catarrhalis isolates in hospitals across China:results from the CHINET Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Program,2015-2021
Hui FAN ; Chunhong SHAO ; Jia WANG ; Yang YANG ; Fupin HU ; Demei ZHU ; Yunsheng CHEN ; Qing MENG ; Hong ZHANG ; Chun WANG ; Fang DONG ; Wenqi SONG ; Kaizhen WEN ; Yirong ZHANG ; Chuanqing WANG ; Pan FU ; Chao ZHUO ; Danhong SU ; Jiangwei KE ; Shuping ZHOU ; Hua ZHANG ; Fangfang HU ; Mei KANG ; Chao HE ; Hua YU ; Xiangning HUANG ; Yingchun XU ; Xiaojiang ZHANG ; Wenen LIU ; Yanming LI ; Lei ZHU ; Jinhua MENG ; Shifu WANG ; Bin SHAN ; Yan DU ; Wei JIA ; Gang LI ; Jiao FENG ; Ping GONG ; Miao SONG ; Lianhua WEI ; Xin WANG ; Ruizhong WANG ; Hua FANG ; Sufang GUO ; Yanyan WANG ; Dawen GUO ; Jinying ZHAO ; Lixia ZHANG ; Juan MA ; Han SHEN ; Wanqing ZHOU ; Ruyi GUO ; Yan ZHU ; Jinsong WU ; Yuemei LU ; Yuxing NI ; Jingrong SUN ; Xiaobo MA ; Yanqing ZHENG ; Yunsong YU ; Jie LIN ; Ziyong SUN ; Zhongju CHEN ; Zhidong HU ; Jin LI ; Fengbo ZHANG ; Ping JI ; Yunjian HU ; Xiaoman AI ; Jinju DUAN ; Jianbang KANG ; Xuefei HU ; Xuesong XU ; Chao YAN ; Yi LI ; Shanmei WANG ; Hongqin GU ; Yuanhong XU ; Ying HUANG ; Yunzhuo CHU ; Sufei TIAN ; Jihong LI ; Bixia YU ; Cunshan KOU ; Jilu SHEN ; Wenhui HUANG ; Xiuli YANG ; Likang ZHU ; Lin JIANG ; Wen HE ; Chunlei YUE
Chinese Journal of Infection and Chemotherapy 2025;25(1):30-38
Objective To investigate the distribution and antimicrobial resistance profiles of clinically isolated Haemophilus influenzae and Moraxella catarrhalis in hospitals across China from 2015 to 2021,and provide evidence for rational use of antimicrobial agents.Methods Data of H.influenzae and M.catarrhalis strains isolated from 2015 to 2021 in CHINET program were collected for analysis,and antimicrobial susceptibility testing was performed by disc diffusion method or automated systems according to the uniform protocol of CHINET.The results were interpreted according to the CLSI breakpoints in 2022.Beta-lactamases was detected by using nitrocefin disk.Results From 2015 to 2021,a total of 43 642 strains of Haemophilus species were isolated,accounting for 2.91%of the total clinical isolates and 4.07%of Gram-negative bacteria in CHINET program.Among the 40 437 strains of H.influenzae,66.89%were isolated from children and 33.11%were isolated from adults.More than 90%of the H.influenzae strains were isolated from respiratory tract specimens.The prevalence of β-lactamase was 53.79%in H.influenzae strains.The H.influenzae strains isolated from children showed higher resistance rate than the strains isolated from adults.Overall,779 strains of H.influenzae did not produce β-lactamase but were resistant to ampicillin(BLNAR).Beta-lactamase-producing strains showed significantly higher resistance rates to these antimicrobial agents than the β-lactamase-nonproducing strains.Of the 16 191 M.catarrhalis strains,80.06%were isolated from children and 19.94%isolated from adults.M.catarrhalis strains were mostly susceptible to both amoxicillin-clavulanic acid and cefuroxime,evidenced by resistance rate lower than 2.0%.Conclusions The emergence of antibiotic-resistant H.influenzae due to β-lactamase production poses a challenge for clinical anti-infective treatment.Therefore,it is very important to implement antibiotic resistance surveillance for H.influenzae and guide rational antibiotic use.All local clinical microbiology laboratories should actively improve antibiotic susceptibility testing and strengthen antibiotic resistance surveillance for H.influenzae.
7.Surveillance of antimicrobial resistance in clinical isolates of Escherichia coli:results from the CHINET Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Program,2015-2021
Shanmei WANG ; Bing MA ; Yi LI ; Yang YANG ; Fupin HU ; Demei ZHU ; Yingchun XU ; Xiaojiang ZHANG ; Zhaoxia ZHANG ; Ping JI ; Yi XIE ; Mei KANG ; Chuanqing WANG ; Aimin WANG ; Yuanhong XU ; Ying HUANG ; Ziyong SUN ; Zhongju CHEN ; Yuxing NI ; Jingyong SUN ; Yunzhuo CHU ; Sufei TIAN ; Zhidong HU ; Jin LI ; Yunsong YU ; Jie LIN ; Bin SHAN ; Yan DU ; Sufang GUO ; Lianhua WEI ; Fengmei ZOU ; Hong ZHANG ; Chun WANG ; Yunjian HU ; Xiaoman AI ; Chao ZHUO ; Danhong SU ; Dawen GUO ; Jinying ZHAO ; Hua YU ; Xiangning HUANG ; Wen'en LIU ; Yanming LI ; Yan JIN ; Chunhong SHAO ; Xuesong XU ; Chao YAN ; Lixia ZHANG ; Juan MA ; Shuping ZHOU ; Yan ZHOU ; Lei ZHU ; Jinhua MENG ; Fang DONG ; Zhiyong LÜ ; Fangfang HU ; Han SHEN ; Wanqing ZHOU ; Wei JIA ; Gang LI ; Jinsong WU ; Yuemei LU ; Jihong LI ; Jinju DUAN ; Jianbang KANG ; Xiaobo MA ; Yanping ZHENG ; Ruyi GUO ; Yan ZHU ; Yunsheng CHEN ; Qing MENG ; Shifu WANG ; Xuefei HU ; Jilu SHEN ; Wenhui HUANG ; Ruizhong WANG ; Hua FANG ; Bixia YU ; Yong ZHAO ; Ping GONG ; Kaizhen WEN ; Yirong ZHANG ; Jiangshan LIU ; Longfeng LIAO ; Hongqin GU ; Lin JIANG ; Wen HE ; Shunhong XUE ; Jiao FENG ; Chunlei YUE
Chinese Journal of Infection and Chemotherapy 2025;25(1):39-47
Objective To investigate the changing antibiotic resistance profiles of E.coli isolated from patients in the 52 hospitals participating in the CHINET program from 2015 to 2021.Methods Antimicrobial susceptibility was tested for clinical isolates of E.coli according to the unified protocol of CHINET program.WHONET 5.6 and SPSS 20.0 software were used for data analysis.Results Atotal of 289 760 nonduplicate clinical strains ofE.coli were isolated from 2015 to 2021,mainly from urine samples(44.7±3.2)%.The proportion of E.coli strains isolated from urine samples was higher in females than in males(59.0%vs 29.5%).The proportion of E.coli strains isolated from respiratory tract and cerebrospinal fluid samples was significantly higher in children than in adults(16.7%vs 7.8%,0.8%vs 0.1%,both P<0.05).The isolates from internal medicine department accounted for the largest proportion(28.9±2.8)%with an increasing trend over years.Overall,the prevalence of ESBLs-producing E.coli and carbapenem resistant E.coli(CREco)was 55.9%and 1.8%,respectively during the 7-year period.The prevalence of ESBLs-producing E.coli was the highest in tertiary hospitals each year from 2015 to 2021 compared to secondary hospitals.The prevalence of CREco was higher in children's hospitals compared to secondary and tertiary hospitals each year from 2015 to 2021.The prevalence of ESBLs-producing E.coli in tertiary hospitals and children's hospitals and the prevalence of CREco in children's hospitals showed a decreasing trend over the 7-year period.The prevalence of CREco in secondary and tertiary hospitals increased slowly.Antibiotic resistance rates changed slowly from 2015 to 2021.Carbapenem drugs(imipenem,meropenem)were the most active drugs amongβ-lactams against E.coli(resistance rate≤2.1%).The resistance rates of E.coli to β-lactam/β-lactam inhibitor combinations(piperacillin-tazobactam,cefoperazone-sulbactam),aminoglycosides(amikacin),nitrofurantoin and fosfomycin(for urinary isolates only)were all less than 10%.The resistance rate of E.coli strains to antibiotics varied with the level of hospitals and the departments where the strains were isolated,especially for cefazolin and ciprofloxacin,to which the resistance rate of E.coli strains from children in non-ICU departments was significantly lower than that of the strains isolated from other departments(P<0.05).The E.coli isolates from ICU showed higher resistance rate to most antimicrobial agents tested(excluding tigecycline)than the strains isolated from other departments.The E.coli strains isolated from tertiary hospitals showed higher resistance rates to the antimicrobial agents tested(excluding tigecycline,polymyxin B,cefepime and carbapenems)than the strains from secondary hospitals and children's hospitals.Conclusions E.coli is an important pathogen causing clinical infection.More than half of the clinical isolates produced ESBL.The prevalence of CREco is increasing in secondary and tertiary hospitals over the 7-year period even though the overall prevalence is still low.This is an issue of concern.
8.Genomic characterization of a respiratory syncytial virus BA9 genotype clinical strain associated with a severe pneumonia outbreak
Na WANG ; Jinhua SONG ; Jie JIANG ; Jingjing SONG ; Yuqing SHI ; Yan ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Microbiology and Immunology 2025;45(9):733-739
Objective:To investigate the genomic characteristics of a clinical strain of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causing a severe pneumonia outbreak in a maternity center in a city in northern China in 2021.Methods:The whole genome sequence of RSV from a clinical sample obtained from a child with respiratory failure and heart failure was determined and analyzed using Sanger sequencing method. Sequence splicing and alignment were performed using bioinformatics software such as Sequencher 5.0, MEGA 7.0, and BioEdit 7.0. Besides, its phylogenetic relationship with the representative strains of RSV-B genotype, amino acid variations, and glycosylation sites were analyzed.Results:The genome of the clinical strain (named RSV/SY/2021) was 15 242 bp in length, consisting of 10 genes encoding 11 proteins, and possessed all the structural features of RSV. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the RSV/SY/2021 strain belonged to BA9 genotype and had the closest genetic relationship with the 2018 Netherlands epidemic strain MZ515558/Netherlands/2018. The termination codon mutation at the end of its attachment glycoprotein (G) gene resulted in the elongation of seven amino acids "Q-R-L-Q-S-Y-A" and the introduction of two additional O-glycosylation sites.Conclusions:This study suggests that RSV BA9 genotype may cause severe clinical symptoms, and clarifies the genome-wide characteristics and nucleotide/amino acid variation patterns of the RSV/SY/2021 strain. These findings enrich both national and global genome databases of RSV, and provide crucial etiological data for tracking RSV transmission, nucleic acid testing, and the development and evaluation of vaccines, antibodies and drugs against RSV.
9.Changing antimicrobial resistance profiles of Burkholderia cepacia in hospitals across China:results from CHINET Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Program,2015-2021
Chunyue GE ; Yunjian HU ; Xiaoman AI ; Yang YANG ; Fupin HU ; Demei ZHU ; Yingchun XU ; Xiaojiang ZHANG ; Hui LI ; Ping JI ; Yi XIE ; Mei KANG ; Chuanqing WANG ; Pan FU ; Yuanhong XU ; Ying HUANG ; Ziyong SUN ; Zhongju CHEN ; Yuxing NI ; Jingyong SUN ; Yunzhuo CHU ; Sufei TIAN ; Zhidong HU ; Jin LI ; Yunsong YU ; Jie LIN ; Bin SHAN ; Yan DU ; Sufang GUO ; Lianhua WEI ; Fengmei ZOU ; Hong ZHANG ; Chun WANG ; Chao ZHUO ; Danhong SU ; Dawen GUO ; Jinying ZHAO ; Hua YU ; Xiangning HUANG ; Wen'en LIU ; Yanming LI ; Yan JIN ; Chunhong SHAO ; Xuesong XU ; Chao YAN ; Shanmei WANG ; Yafei CHU ; Lixia ZHANG ; Juan MA ; Shuping ZHOU ; Yan ZHOU ; Lei ZHU ; Jinhua MENG ; Fang DONG ; Zhiyong LÜ ; Fangfang HU ; Han SHEN ; Wanqing ZHOU ; Wei JIA ; Gang LI ; Jinsong WU ; Yuemei LU ; Jihong LI ; Jinju DUAN ; Jianbang KANG ; Xiaobo MA ; Yanping ZHENG ; Ruyi GUO ; Yan ZHU ; Yunsheng CHEN ; Qing MENG ; Shifu WANG ; Xuefei HU ; Jilu SHEN ; Wenhui HUANG ; Ruizhong WANG ; Hua FANG ; Bixia YU ; Yong ZHAO ; Ping GONG ; Kaizhen WENG ; Yirong ZHANG ; Jiangshan LIU ; Longfeng LIAO ; Hongqin GU ; Lin JIANG ; Wen HE ; Shunhong XUE ; Jiao FENG ; Chunlei YUE
Chinese Journal of Infection and Chemotherapy 2025;25(5):557-562
Objective To examine the changing prevalence and antimicrobial resistance profiles of Burkholderia cepacia in 52 hospitals across China from 2015 to 2021.Methods A total of 9 261 strains of B.cepacia were collected from 52 hospitals between January 1,2015 and December 31,2021.Antimicrobial susceptibility of the strains was tested using Kirby-Bauer method or automated antimicrobial susceptibility testing systems according to a unified protocol.The results were interpreted according to the breakpoints released in the Clinical & Laboratory Standards Institute(CLSI)guidelines(2023 edition).Results A total of 9 261 strains of B.cepacia were isolated from all age groups,especially elderly patients.The proportion was 11.1%(1 032 strains)in children,significantly lower than the proportion in adults.About half(46.5%,4 310/9 261)of the strains were isolated from patients at least 60 years old and 42.3%(3 919/9 261)of the strains were isolated from young adults.Most isolates(71.1%)were isolated from sputum and respiratory secretions,followed by urine(10.7%)and blood samples(8.1%).B.cepacia isolates were highly susceptible to the five antimicrobial agents recommended in the CLSI M100 document(33rd edition,2023).B.cepacia isolates showed relatively higher resistance rates to meropenem and levofloxacin.However,the resistance rates to ceftazidime,trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole,and minocycline remained below 8.1%.The percentage of B.cepacia strains resistant to levofloxacin was the highest compared to other antibiotics in any of the three age groups(from 12.4%in the patients<18 years old to 20.6%in the patients aged 60 years or older).Conclusions B.cepacia is one of the clinically important non-fermenting gram-negative bacteria.Accurate and timely reporting of antimicrobial susceptibility test results and ongoing antimicrobial resistance surveillance are helpful for rational prescription of antimicrobial agents and proper prevention and control of nosocomial infections.
10.Epidemiological characteristics and prediction model of bacillary dysentery in Qinghai Province,2014-2023
Yuqi JIANG ; Jinhua ZHAO ; Jiang LONG ; Yang ZHANG ; Ping DENG ; Sheng-lin QIN ; Huayi ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Infection Control 2025;24(10):1389-1394
Objective To compare five time series models and predict the monthly incidence of bacillary dysentery in Qinghai Province in 2024,and provide reference for the prevention and control.Methods The epidemic charac-teristics of bacterial dysentery in Qinghai Province from 2014 to 2023 were analyzed.R4.3.1 software was used for establishing seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)model,Holt-Winters triple exponential smoothing(Holt Winters)model,exponential smoothing(ETS)model,neural network autoregression(NNAR)model,and trigonometric seasonality,Box-Cox transformation,ARMA errors,trend and seasonal components(TBATS)model.Fitting effect of the models was analyzed and accuracy was compared.Results From 2014 to 2023,a total of 5 833 cases of bacterial dysentery were reported in Qinghai Province,without deaths,male to fe-male ratio being 1.23∶1.The highest incidence was reported in 2016(15.45 per 100 000 people),and the lowest in-cidence was reported in 2023(3.68 per 100 000 people).Incidence increased from 2014 to 2016,then decreased,showing an obvious overall downward trend.Case number in<5 years age group was the highest,accounting for 29.76%of the total cases(n=1 736).Regarding population distribution,the top three were children in childcare institutions and scattered children(35.56%),farmers(24.65%),and students(12.62%).Except the additive Holt-Winters model,the predicted trends of the other four models were consistent with actuality.The ETS model had the best fitting effect,with a relatively balanced overall performance(training set:MAE=0.13,RMSE=0.21,MAPE=19.55%;testing set:MAE=0.11,RMSE=0.16,MAPE=28.66%).It is recommended to pre-dict the incidence of bacillary dysentery in Qinghai Province based on ETS model.Conclusion From 2014 to 2023,bacterial dysentery in Qinghai Province showed a downward trend,with the peak of the epidemic from June to Au-gust.Preschool and scattered children were high-risk groups.Among the five prediction models,ETS model has the best fitting effect,and can be used to predict the incidence of bacillary dysentery.

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