1.A time-stratified case-crossover study on effects of heatwaves on daily outpatient visits for skin diseases in Urumqi from 2016 to 2024
Ying ZHANG ; Zhe LIU ; Chunyu XU ; Na LI ; Jingyi LIU ; Haofeng YANG ; Li DING ; Jingxiu HAN
Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine 2026;43(8):967-971
Background Against the background of global warming, frequent heatwaves pose a major threat to public health. Objective To investigate the effects of heatwaves on outpatient visits for skin diseases in Urumqi, characterize the exposure–response relationship, identify the critical temperature threshold, and provide scientific evidence for targeted prevention and control of heat-related skin diseases. Methods Data on meteorological conditions, air quality, and dermatological outpatient visits from 10 hospitals in Urumqi were collected from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2024. A time-stratified case-crossover design combined with a distributed lag model was adopted to construct a conditional logistic regression model, with adjustment for potential confounders, including relative humidity, air pollutants, and COVID-19 lockdown measures. With a maximum lag of 14 d, single-lag and cumulative-lag effects of heatwaves were examined, and the exposure–response relationship between temperature and the risk of dermatological outpatient visit was fitted. Results A total of 385 heatwave days were identified in Urumqi from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2024. These days were concentrated between June and September and showed an increasing annual trend. The median daily number of dermatological outpatient visits during heatwave periods (165 cases) was significantly higher than that during control periods (114 cases) (Z=−5.108, P<0.001). After adjusting for confounders, the odds of dermatological outpatient visits during heatwaves were 1.088 times higher than those of the control period (OR=1.088, 95%CI: 1.069, 1.107). Single-lag effects were statistically significant from lag0 to lag11 (P<0.05), peaking at lag0 (OR=1.088, 95%CI: 1.069, 1.107), showing an acute and immediate effect. Cumulative-lag effects were statistically significant from 1 to 14 d (P<0.05), peaking at lag04 (OR=1.117, 95%CI: 1.099, 1.136). The exposure–response relationship indicated that the OR values increased steeply with increasing temperature when the daily mean temperature exceeded 24.2 ℃, peaking at approximately 28.1 ℃ (OR=1.400, 95%CI: 1.189, 1.649). Conclusions Heatwave exposure is significantly associated with an increased risk of dermatological outpatient visits among residents in Urumqi. The impact of high temperature on skin diseases is predominantly acute, with peak risks observed on the day of exposure and within the subsequent 4 d. A daily mean temperature of 24.2 ℃ can serve as the critical threshold for heightened dermatological consultation risk. Strengthened health education and early warning systems are recommended to mitigate heatwave-related adverse dermatological outcomes.
2.The practice of rational drug use management in hospital under the reform of DRGs payment methods
Bin YANG ; Zuojun WANG ; Han CHEN ; Jingyi ZHANG
Journal of Pharmaceutical Practice and Service 2025;43(1):22-25
Objective To establish an effective management mode, play the full role of DRGs in rational drug use, formulate the pharmaceutical clinical path, and intervene the prescription behavior of doctors, which could improve the level of rational drug use in the hospital through the management practice of rational drug use under the payment method of DRGs in a third-grade hospital. Methods A drug entering mechanism, a rational drug use supervision mechanism and an active and rational drug use data exposure mechanism based on DRGs were established, and the rational drug use indicators such as drug consumption index, average drug cost, and auxiliary drug use were accurately positioned based on the information platform, and the accurate and refined management of rational drug use was realized through the daily supervision of the office of the Pharmaceutical Affairs Committee. Results and Conclusion Under the multi-dimensional and multi-level rational drug use management based on DRGs, the effect of rational drug use was evaluated after the reform of DRGs payment method, and all the index of rational drug use in our hospital were continuously improved.
3.Biological rhythm disorders in the aerospace environment and acupuncture prevention and treatment strategies
Jingyi ZHU ; Xiali OUYANG ; Ying XUE ; Li HAN ; Chang HUANG ; Rui HE ; Baixiao ZHAO
Space Medicine & Medical Engineering 2025;36(4):331-336
Long-term spaceflight,characterized by drastic changes in spatial position,disrupts the Earth's inherent environmental periodic signals,such as the day-night light-dark cycle.This leads to a misalignment between the external environmental cycles and the body's endogenous biological rhythms.The cumulative effect of this persistent"time difference"severely disrupts the core biological pathways that regulate the circadian rhythm.It triggers a series of neuroendocrine and behavioral stress responses,exemplified by sleep-wake disorders,which have become a core medical problem constraining the success of long-term space missions and astronaut health.Traditional Chinese Medicine(TCM)posits that aligning with the rhythmic changes of heaven,earth,day,night,and the four seasons,and maintaining the dynamic balance and harmonious functioning of the body's Yin and Yang vital energies,are fundamental principles for safeguarding vitality and resisting external pathogens and internal injuries.However,in the prolonged weightlessness,confinement,and abnormal lighting environment of deep space flight,the bond between the human body and natural rhythms is forcibly severed.Yin and Yang Qi become difficult to sustain,the mechanisms of ascent,descent,exit,and entry are obstructed,the visceral Qi transformation functions are impaired,and the circulation of Qi and Blood becomes disordered,ultimately leading to the onset of various disorders.This paper,grounded in the TCM temporal medicine perspective of"correspondence between heaven and human"(tian ren xiang ying)and the theories of Yin-Yang and Qi-Blood,meticulously reviews the historical classics and modern research on acupoint intervention strategies for addressing rhythm disorders and harmonizing Yin and Yang.Building upon this foundation,it innovatively proposes and argues for an integrated acupoint prescription strategy:the"Bei Xin Wu Xue"combined with the classic paired points Zhaohai(KI6)-Shenmai(BL62)on the lower limbs to regulate the dynamic balance of the Yin and Yang Heel Vessels(Yin/Yang Qiao Mai),and the classic paired points Taichong(LR3)-Yongquan(KI1)to guide Qi downward.This combination aims to work at multiple levels-"Heart-Brain,Yin-Yang,Liver-Kidney"-to calm the Heart Spirit,clear the Brain Mansion,and tonify the Liver and Kidney.The goal is to restore Yin and Yang Qi to an orderly and coordinated state,thereby assisting the disordered biological rhythm system in regaining homeostasis.This provides a novel TCM-inspired approach of"rhythm regulation and equilibrium restoration"(tiao shi fu heng)to safeguard the long-term in-orbit health of astronauts.
4.Application value of photon-counting detector CT in preoperative assessment of pancreatic cancer
Jingyi LIU ; Liang ZHU ; Chen LIN ; Jiashu HAN ; Chao ZHANG ; Yun WANG ; Mengzhe LYU ; Xi ZHAO ; Weibin WANG ; Feng FENG
Chinese Journal of Radiology 2025;59(12):1369-1376
Objective:To investigate the application value of photon-counting detector CT (PCD-CT) in preoperative identification of critical anatomical structures and surgical assessment in pancreatic cancer, and to compare its performance with conventional energy-integrating detector CT (EID-CT) in delineating tumor margins, vascular structures, and neural anatomy.Methods:This single-center retrospective matched case-control study included 25 patients with pathologically confirmed pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma who underwent PCD-CT enhanced scanning and curative surgery at Peking Union Medical College Hospital between February and June 2025 (PCD-CT group). These patients were matched in a 1∶2 ratio to 50 patients who underwent EID-CT between January 2016 and December 2024 and subsequently received curative surgery (EID-CT group). Tumor boundary clarity, vascular visualization scores, and neural structure visibility were subjectively evaluated using the Likert scoring system. The assessed vessels included the celiac artery, common hepatic artery, superior mesenteric artery, splenic artery, portal vein, superior mesenteric vein, splenic vein, and pancreaticoduodenal arterial arcade. Imaging-based assessment of structural involvement was compared with intraoperative findings and pathological results to calculate diagnostic accuracy. Surgeons rated the usefulness of PCD-CT images for identifying key structures and determining resectability using a 5-point Likert scale. The Mann-Whitney U test was used for group comparisons of subjective scores, and categorical data were analyzed using the χ2 test or Fisher exact test. Results:The PCD-CT group showed significantly higher scores for tumor boundary clarity, vascular visualization, and neural structure detectability than those of the EID-CT group (all P<0.05). The accuracy of assessing superior mesenteric vein involvement was 96.0% (24/25) in the PCD-CT group and 72.0% (36/50) in the EID-CT group, with a significant difference ( χ2=6.00, P=0.014). Postoperative surgeon evaluations indicated that PCD-CT provided substantial assistance for both key structure identification [5 (5, 5)] and resectability assessment [5 (4, 5)]. Conclusion:PCD-CT demonstrates superior performance over EID-CT in preoperative delineation of tumor margins, vascular structures, and neural anatomy and in the assessment of structural involvement in pancreatic cancer. It provides valuable anatomical information to support preoperative evaluation and surgical decision-making.
5.Mediating role of serum β-hCG levels in the relationship between blastocyst quality and pregnancy outcomes in frozen-thawed single blastocyst transfer
Peixin LI ; Ruowen ZU ; Bingnan REN ; Jingyi HAN ; Wei ZHENG ; Chen YANG ; Yichun GUAN
Chinese Journal of Reproduction and Contraception 2025;45(6):582-590
Objective:To investigate the mediating role of serum β-human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) levels on the relationship between embryo quality and pregnancy outcomes following single frozen-thawed blastocyst transfer 14 d post-transfer.Methods:This retrospective cohort study collected data from patients who underwent in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (IVF/ICSI) frozen-thawed single blastocyst transfer at the Reproductive Health Hospital of the Third Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University between August 2017 and June 2021. Patients were grouped according to embryo quality into good-quality blastocyst group ( n=3 191) and available blastocyst group ( n=2 027). Differences in serum β-hCG levels and pregnancy outcomes at 14 d post-transfer were compared between the two groups. Mediation analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis were used to explore the mediating effect of β-hCG levels on the relationship between embryo quality and pregnancy outcomes and to evaluate the differences in the incidence of placental-related diseases between the two groups. Results:The good-quality blastocyst group had significantly higher serum β-hCG levels [1 177.0 (1.8, 2 278.5) U/L], clinical pregnancy rate [65.62% (2 094/3 191)], and live birth rate [52.55% (1 667/3 191)] compared with the available blastocyst group [54.4 (0.1, 1 453.5) U/L, P<0.001; 46.13% (935/2 027), P<0.001; 34.19% (693/2 027), P<0.001]. The early miscarriage rate in the good-quality group [13.47% (282/2 094)] was lower than that in the available blastocyst group [19.14% (179/935), P<0.001]. Serum β-hCG levels at 14 d post-transfer showed significant mediating effects on clinical pregnancy rate ( r=-0.126), live birth rate ( r=-0.122), and early miscarriage rate ( r=0.028) in both groups (all P<0.001). The cut-off values for β-hCG to predict live birth in the available and good-quality blastocyst groups were 366.9 U/L and 485.5 U/L, with positive predictive values of 76.28% (672/881) and 82.84% (1 628/1 965), respectively, and negative predictive values of 98.15% (1 114/1 135) and 96.14% (1 170/1 217). The cut-off values for predicting clinical pregnancy were 118.8 U/L and 226.5 U/L, with positive predictive values of 95.43% (919/963) and 98.45% (2 037/2 069), and negative predictive values of 99.72% (1 050/1 053) and 94.89% (1 059/1 116). The cut-off values for predicting early miscarriage were 1 337.0 U/L and 1 162.6 U/L, with positive predictive values of 32.75% (130/397) and 30.18% (150/497), and negative predictive values of 90.89% (489/538) and 91.73% (1 465/1 597). No differences were found in the incidence of placental-related diseases between the two groups (all P>0.05). Conclusion:This study indicates that both embryo quality and serum β-hCG levels at 14 d post-transfer significantly affect pregnancy outcomes. β-hCG levels play an important mediating role between embryo quality and pregnancy outcomes. ROC analysis demonstrates the good predictive efficacy of serum β-hCG levels for pregnancy outcomes, providing scientific evidence for optimizing embryo selection.
6.Huangqi sanqi mixture inhibits lncRNA Gm51500/Adam12 axis to im-prove renal fibrosis in CKD
Jingyi LIN ; Rangyue HAN ; Linghui XU ; Ruizhi TAN ; Hongwei SU ; Li WANG
Chinese Journal of Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics 2025;30(6):750-762
AIM:To explore the potential of Huangqi sanqi mixture(AP)in improving renal fi-brosis by performing transcriptome sequencing of the kidneys of the unilateral ureteral ligation mouse group and the Huangqi sanqi mixture inter-vention group,and using bioinformatics to verify the signitficantly different lncRNAs mechanism.METHODS:Twenty-four C57 mice were divided in-to sham operation group,renal fibrosis group,Huangqi sanqi mixture intervention group(3.944 g/kg)and irbesartan positive control intervention group,with 6 mice in each group.A mouse model of renal fibrosis was established by unilateral ure-teral ligation(UUO).The animals were given intra-gastric administration after operation,and the ani-mals were sacrificed and the specimens were col-lected after seven consecutive days of administra-tion.The changes of Huangqi sanqi mixture on re-nal fibrosis pathological damage were analyzed by HE and Masson staining,and the protein levels of Fn and α-SMA in renal tissue of each group were detected by Western blot and immunohistochemis-try to evaluate the alleviating effect of Huangqi san-qi mixture on renal fibrosis.Subsequently,lncRNA expression information was obtained by transcrip-tome sequencing,and Quantitative Real-time PCR(qPCR)was performed after data quality,GO en-richment and differential lncRNA were analyzed.According to the differential lncRNA and target analysis results obtained by sequencing,lncRNA Gm51500/Adam12 was overexpressed in vitro,and its mechanism in the protection of renal fibrosis by Huangqi sanqi mixture was studied by immunohis-tochemistry,immunofluorescence staining and qP-CR verification.RESULTS:Compared with the mod-el group,the renal fibrosis of the mice in the Huangqi sanqi mixture intervention group was sig-nificantly reduced,and the protein levels of α-SMA and Fn and the expression of lncRNA in the renal tis-sue were significantly down-regulated(P<0.000 1).Three lncRNAs were screened and verified to in-crease in the model group and significantly de-crease after AP intervention,namely lncRNA Gm29994,Gm51500 and Gm35391.Target analysis showed that lncRNA Gm51500 had the most signifi-cant relationship with Adam12.The results of ani-mal experiments showed that Adam12 was highly expressed in the kidney of UUO mice and was sig-nificantly inhibited after AP intervention.Subse-quent cell experiments confirmed that overexpres-sion of lncRNA Gm51500 could up-regulate TGF-β-induced renal tubular cell fibrosis and Adam12 ex-pression.Cell recovery experiments confirmed that Adam12 overexpression reversed the inhibitory ef-fect of AP on renal tubular cell injury and fibrosis.CONCLUSION:Huangqi sanqi mixture can improve renal fibrosis.Based on transcriptomic sequencing,lncRNA Gm51500/Adam12 axis may be a potential target for Huangqi sanqi mixture to improve renal fibrosis.
7.Evidence-based guideline for diagnosis and early fixation of severe open tibiofibular fractures (version 2025)
Yongjun RUI ; Yongqing XU ; Qingtang ZHU ; Xin WANG ; Zhao XIE ; Shanlin CHEN ; Jingyi MI ; Xianyou ZHENG ; Juyu TANG ; Xiaoheng DING ; Aixi YU ; Tao SONG ; Jianxi HOU ; Jian QI ; Xinyu FAN ; Jun FEI ; Lin GUO ; Xingwen HAN ; Weixu LI ; Aiguo WANG ; Yun XIE ; Tao XING ; Meng LI ; Baoqing YU ; Yan ZHUANG ; Xiaoqing HE ; Tao SUN ; Pengcheng LI ; Jihui JU ; Hongxiang ZHOU ; Haidong REN ; Guangyue ZHAO ; Gang ZHAO ; Yongwei WU ; Jun LIU ; Yunhong MA ; Yapeng WANG
Chinese Journal of Trauma 2025;41(11):1021-1034
Severe open tibiofibular fractures account for approximately 28.1% of all open fractures. Among them, Gustilo-Anderson type IIIB/C fractures present significant clinical challenges due to associated bone and soft tissue defects, high infection rates, and risk of amputation. Inadequate preoperative assessment may lead to suboptimal emergency surgical planning or intraoperative complications. Historically, external fixation was often preferred, but this approach has been associated with limitations such as restricted joint mobility, delayed bone union, joint stiffness, and disuse osteoporosis, resulting in poor functional recovery. With advancements of debridement techniques, standardization of antibiotic use, and popularization of early soft tissue coverage, early internal fixation has gained broader acceptance. Nevertheless, controversies persist regarding the choice of fixation method, timing of definitive fixation, use of reamed versus unreamed intramedullary nailing, and necessity of fibular fixation. To standardize the diagnosis and early management of severe open tibiofibular fractures, reduce complication rates, and improve functional recovery, the Society of Microsurgery of the Chinese Medical Association organized a panel of domestic experts to develop the Evidence-based guideline for the diagnosis and early fixation of severe open tibiofibular fractures ( version 2025), using evidence-based methodology. The guidelines provided 12 recommendations covering diagnostic and early fixation strategies of severe open tibiofibular fractures, aiming to provide clinicians with scientifically grounded and standardized guidance.
8.Clinical analysis of 44 patients with infantile myofibroma/myofibromatosis
Xin MENG ; Nan ZHANG ; Jiaosheng XU ; Fang WANG ; Jingyi FAN ; Xin XIANG ; Xiaofeng HAN ; Zigang XU
Chinese Journal of Dermatology 2025;58(10):957-963
Objective:To delineate clinical characteristics of infantile myofibroma/myofibromatosis (IM) .Methods:A retrospective analysis was conducted on histologically confirmed IM cases from Beijing Children's Hospital, Henan Children's Hospital, and Maternity and Child Health Care of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region between August 2014 and July 2021. The clinical, pathological, imaging features, and outcomes were analyzed and summarized.Results:A total of 44 IM patients were included, comprising 28 males (63.6%) and 16 females (36.4%). Their ages at onset ( M[ Q1, Q3]) were 14.8 (4.7, 42.4) months, and 26 patients (59.1%) developed IM before the age of 1 year. Seven patients (15.9%) were initially diagnosed with IM. Skin involvement occurred in 42 patients (95.5%), of whom 30 (71.4%) presented with a solitary lesion and 12 (28.6%) with multiple lesions. Skin lesions mainly manifested as painless, firm nodules or masses. The most commonly involved extracutaneous site was the skeletal system (21/44, 47.7%). Histopathological examination of all 44 IM cases revealed a biphasic architecture pattern, characterized by the coexistence of two distinct morphologies or cell types within the tumor tissues (including spindle cell areas composed of fascicularly and densely arranged myofibroblasts, and primitive mesenchymal cell areas composed of small, round undifferentiated cells. Immunohistochemical study was performed in 42 cases; 40 (95.2%) were positive for smooth muscle actin, and 20 (47.6%) were positive for CD34. Genetic testing was conducted in 3 cases, and NOTCH mutations were identified in 2. Among the 44 patients, 30 patients (68.2%) underwent surgical excision, 5 patients (11.4%) received intralesional injections of triamcinolone acetonide, 1 patient (2.3%) received chemotherapy for intestinal involvement, and 8 patients were managed expectantly. During the follow-up of 49 (36, 60) months, lesions completely resolved in 42 cases (95.5%), while 2 cases died of pulmonary infection following chemotherapy or postoperative airway compression. Conclusions:IM predominantly affected infants and young children, with the skin and skeletal system being the most commonly involved sites. Skin lesions often manifested as firm nodules or masses, and histopathological examination was crucial for definitive diagnoses. Most IM cases exhibited favorable outcomes.
9.Genetic diversity analysis of oxacillinase in 241 clinical isolates of Pseudomonas aeruginosa
Yuelong LI ; Jingyi ZHANG ; Yubing FU ; Meiqing SUN ; Beibei MIAO ; Xinyi GONG ; Xiao HAN ; Huan XING ; Pengfang GAO ; Jiachen LI ; Yating TANG ; Xinya FAN ; Yanlei GE ; Haijian ZHOU ; Juan LI ; Aiying DONG
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;59(7):1004-1012
Objective:To analyze the carriage status, subtype distribution and flanking gene sequence characteristics of oxacillinases (OXA enzyme) in 241 clinical strains of Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and assess their roles in the drug resistance of Pseudomonas aeruginosa and ability to horizontally transfer across species. Methods:Clinical P. aeruginosa isolates were collected from four hospitals in Sanya, Tangshan, Zhangjiakou, and Beijing. The prevalence of oxacillinases and their flanking gene sequences was analyzed by whole-genome sequencing (NGS) and bioinformatic approaches. Results:A total of 241 isolates of P. aeruginosa were gathered, and 35 blaOXA subtypes were identified through screening of 252 blaOXA genes. These genes were classified into three subfamilies: blaOXA-50-like (241, 95.6%), blaOXA-1-like (9, 3.6%) and blaOXA-10-like (2, 0.8%). Among these, 11 subtypes (11, 31.4%) were novel blaOXA subtypes. Nine of these belonged to the blaOXA-50-like subfamily and were designated as blaOXA-1244, blaOXA-1245, blaOXA-1246, blaOXA-1250, blaOXA-1252, blaOXA-1253, blaOXA-1254, blaOXA-1255, and blaOXA-1256. The remaining two belonged to the blaOXA-10-like subfamily and were named blaOXA-1247 and blaOXA-1248. Compared to the amino acid sequence of OXA-10, the newly identified subtype OXA-1247 exhibited a mutation at position 117, where a valine was replaced by a leucine. This change was thought to improve the enzyme′s ability to hydrolyze carbapenems. In the analysis of the flanking sequences of the blaOXA genes, Class I integrons were identified in four bacterial strains. The variable regions of these integrons carried three distinct patterns of resistance gene cassettes: aac( 6′) -Ib-blaOXA-1247-ant( 3′′) -Ia, aac( 6′) -Ib-blaOXA-1248 and aac( 6′) -Ib- blaIMP-45-blaOXA-1-catB3. Among these, the strain BJ2326 carried a class I integron that was connected to the downstream IS CR1 element to form a composite class I integron structure, additionally carrying the resistance gene blaPER-1. Out of the 223 non-wild-type P. aeruginosa strains, 127 strains exhibited non-wild-type profiles to the four beta-lactam antibiotics MEM, CAZ, FEP, and TZP, with the combination of MEM+CAZ+FEP being the most prevalent, representing 57.0% of the total. Conclusions:The blaOXA genes in 241 clinical P. aeruginosa strains showed diversity. Some blaOXA genes had a co-transfer risk with the metallo-β-lactamase resistance gene blaIMP-45. Among the 11 newly discovered blaOXA subtypes, the new subtype OXA-1247 may have carbapenemase activity and potential for horizontal transfer.
10.Analysis on the machine learning model of the prognosis of acute pancreatitis based on complete blood count parameters
Tongle CHEN ; Baosong HAN ; Jingyi WU
Immunological Journal 2025;41(10):710-717
Objective To investigate the predictive efficacy of complete blood count(CBC)parameters for the prognosis of acute pancreatitis(AP),and to construct a machine learning model.Methods The clinical data of 120 patients with AP admitted from January 2021 to December 2024 were retrospectively analyzed.Based on the prognostic outcomes within 28 d of treatment,they were divided into the poor prognosis group and the good prognosis group.On the first day of admission,CBC parameters[red blood cell count,hemoglobin,hematocrit,white blood cell count,neutrophil count,lymphocyte count,monocyte count,red blood cell distribution width(RDW),platelet count,mean platelet volume,platelet distribution width,neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio(NLR),platelet/lymphocyte ratio(PLR),lymphocyte/monocyte ratio(LMR)were detected in the two groups.The general data and CBC parameters of the two groups were compared.The clinical variables were screened using the Lasso regression equation.Four models,namely Support Vector Machine(SVM),logistic regression(LR),deep neural network(DNN),and Random Forest(RF),were constructed for external validation.The predictive efficacy of the four models for the prognosis of AP was evaluated by using the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,the precision-recall(PR)curve,the calibration curve and the clinical decision curve.Results The APACHE Ⅱ score,bedside severity index score,proportion of vasoactive drug use,and proportion of severe hypoproteinemia in the poor prognosis group were all higher than those in the good prognosis group(P<0.01).The levels of RDW,NLR and PLR in the poor prognosis group were all higher than those in the good prognosis group,while the level of LMR was lower than that in the good prognosis group(P<0.01).The Lasso regression equation ultimately screened out four non-zero coefficient variables:NLR,RDW,APACHE Ⅱ score,and severe hypoproteinemia.Based on the above variables,SVM,LR,RF and DNN machine learning models were constructed.The RF model had the highest area under the ROC curve(AUC),PR AUC,accuracy rate and F1 score for predicting the prognosis of AP,and had the optimal comprehensive performance.The calibration curve showed that the curve of the RF model for predicting the prognosis of AP was relatively close to the ideal curve.The decision curve showed that when the threshold probability value of the RF model was 15%to 100%,it had a significance clinical net benefit rate.External validation also showed that the RF model had the optimal predictive efficacy.The calibration curve indicated that the predictive curve of the RF model for the prognosis of AP highly coincided with the actually observed curve.The decision curve showed that the RF model provided clinical net benefits to patients across the decision threshold range of 0 to 100%.Conclusion Machine learning models constructed based on CBC parameters can make relatively accurate predictions about the prognosis of AP.Among them,the RF model has the optimal predictive efficiency,which can be used as an auxiliary tool for clinical prediction of AP prognosis,and can also provide reference for clinical treatment.

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