Diabetic kidney disease（DKD） is a chronic kidney structural and functional disorder caused by diabetes. With the global prevalence of diabetes continuing to rise， DKD has gradually become a major cause of chronic kidney disease and end-stage renal disease（ESRD）， posing a serious threat to patients' quality of life and long-term health outcomes. Studies have shown that apoptosis plays a pivotal role in the development and progression of DKD， with its mechanisms involving abnormal activation of multiple signaling pathways such as Toll-like receptor 4（TLR4）/nuclear transcription factor-κB（NF-κB）/B-cell lymphoma-2（Bcl-2）/cysteinyl aspartate-specific proteinase（Caspase）-3， protein kinase R-like endoplasmic reticulum kinase（PERK）/eukaryotic initiation factor 2α（eIF2α）/activating transcript factor 4（ATF4）/CCAAT enhancer-binding protein homologous protein（CHOP）， phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase（PI3K）/protein kinase B（Akt）/glycogen synthase kinase-3β（GSK-3β）， Janus kinase 2（JAK2）/signal transducer and activator of transcription 3（STAT3）， adenosine monophosphate-activated protein kinase（AMPK）/mammalian target of rapamycin（mTOR） and silent information regulator 1（SIRT1）/tumor suppressor protein 53（p53）， thereby accelerating renal pathological damage in DKD. Extensive evidence-based medical studies have confirmed that traditional Chinese medicine（TCM）， leveraging its unique therapeutic advantages of multi-target， multi-component and multi-pathway approaches， has demonstrated remarkable efficacy and favorable safety profiles in treating DKD. Recent studies have demonstrated that active components of TCM can specifically target and modulate key effectors in apoptotic signaling pathways. Meanwhile， traditional compound formulations exert synergistic effects through multiple approaches such as replenishing deficiency and activating blood circulation， detoxifying and dredging collaterals， tonifying kidney essence， and removing stasis and purging turbidity， thereby comprehensively regulating critical pathological processes including endoplasmic reticulum stress and mitochondrial apoptosis pathways. This combined therapeutic approach of molecular targeting and holistic regulation provides novel strategies for delaying the progression of DKD. Based on this， this paper provides an in-depth analysis of key apoptotic signaling pathways and their regulatory mechanisms， while systematically summarizing recent research advances regarding the therapeutic effects of TCM active components， compound formulations， and proprietary Chinese medicines on DKD through modulation of these pathways， with particular emphasis on their underlying molecular mechanisms. These findings not only elucidate the modern scientific connotation and theoretical basis of TCM in treating DKD but also establish a solid theoretical and practical foundation for promoting the wider clinical application and further research of TCM in the field of DKD treatment.

Objective To investigate muscle mass reduction and the effect of exercise training intervention in non-obese patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM). Methods A total of 324 non-obese patients with T2DM admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University were enrolled from February 2023 to February 2025. Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry was adopted to detect and analyze the data of appendicular skeletal muscle index (ASMI). Non-obese T2DM patients were classified into an observation group (n=162, receive sports training intervention) and a control group (n=162, receiving routine exercise intervention) by adopting random number grouping criteria. Both groups were intervened for 3 months. The muscle mass indicators [ASMI, body mass index (BMI), and body fat rate], exercise ability [6-minute walking distance (6MWD), grip strength, and one-leg standing time], metabolic indicators [fasting plasma glucose (FPG), glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c), and homeostasis model assessment insulin resistance index (HOMA-IR)], and quality of life [Diabetes Quality of Life Scale (DQOL)] were compared between the two groups to evaluate the effectiveness of sports training intervention. Results A total of 324 non-obese T2DM patients were enrolled, including 123 cases with reduced muscle mass (37.96%). There were no significant differences in the baseline data and the proportion of patients with muscle mass reduction between the two groups before intervention (P>0.05). After intervention, the ASMI, 6MWD, grip strength, and one-leg standing time in the observation group were higher or longer than those of the control group (P<0.05), while the body fat rate, FPG, HbA1c, HOMA-IR and DQOL scores were lower than those of the control group (P<0.05). Conclusion The incidence of muscle mass reduction is relatively high among non-obese T2DM patients, and exercise training intervention has significant effects on improving muscle mass, metabolic status, exercise capacity and quality of life in non-obese T2DM patients.

ObjectiveTo observe the clinical efficacy and safety of Yishen Jiangtang decoction combined with conventional Western medicine treatment in managing stage G3A3 diabetic kidney disease （DKD） in the patients with the pattern of Qi-Yin deficiency combined with dampness-heat and blood stasis， and to explore its mechanism of inhibiting the endoplasmic reticulum stress （ERS）-apoptosis axis and delaying renal fibrosis （RF）. MethodsA single-center， randomized， parallel-controlled clinical trial was conducted. A total of 78 patients diagnosed with stage G3A3 DKD and traditional Chinese medicine （TCM） pattern of Qi-Yin deficiency combined with dampness-heat and blood stasis and treated in the Department of Nephrology and the Department of Endocrinology of the People's Hospital Affiliated to Fujian University of Traditional Chinese Medicine from March 2025 to February 2026 were enrolled. They were randomly assigned at a 1∶1 ratio into a control group （conventional Western medicine treatment） and an experimental group （Yishen Jiangtang decoction combined with conventional Western medicine treatment）， with 39 patients in each group. The treatment lasted for 12 weeks. Basic demographic data and medical history were collected before and after treatment. The two groups before and after treatment were compared in terms of the following parameters： Blood urea nitrogen （BUN）， serum creatinine （SCr）， estimated glomerular filtration rate （eGFR）， urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio （UACR）， fasting blood glucose （FBG）， triglycerides （TG）， total cholesterol （TC）， and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol （LDL-C）. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay （ELISA） kits were used to measure serum glucose-regulated protein 78 （GRP78）， serum cysteinyl aspartate-specific protease-3 （Caspase-3）， and serum and urinary transforming growth factor-β₁ （TGF-β₁） levels before and after treatment. TCM symptom scores， TCM syndrome efficacy， and overall clinical efficacy were evaluated before and after treatment. Spearman correlation analysis was performed to explore the correlations of serum levels of GRP78 and Caspase-3， as well as serum and urinary levels of TGF-β1， with renal function， proteinuria， and glucose and lipid metabolism indicators in patients with DKD. In addition， safety indicators were also monitored. ResultsA total of 75 patients completed the study （38 in the control group and 37 in the experimental group）. ① Baseline data： The two groups were comparable in terms of sex and age， with no statistically significant difference. ② Efficacy outcomes： Compared with baseline levels， both groups showed reductions in BUN， SCr， UACR， FBG， TG， TC， LDL-C， and TCM symptom scores （P<0.01） and increases in eGFR level （P<0.01）. Moreover， the experimental group outperformed the control group in altering the indicators above （P<0.05）. Regarding TCM syndrome efficacy， the total response rate in the experimental group was 83.78%， which was higher than that （57.89%） in the control group （P<0.05）. Regarding overall clinical efficacy， the total response rate in the experimental group was 78.38%， which was higher than that （50.00%） in the control group （P<0.05）. ③ Mechanism outcomes： Compared with baseline levels， both groups showed declined serum levels of GRP78， Caspase-3， and TGF-β₁ and urinary level of TGF-β₁ after treatment （P<0.01）. Moreover， the experimental group showed greater declines than the control group （P<0.05）. The serum levels of GRP78， Caspase-3，and TGF-β₁ and the urinary level of TGF-β₁ in DKD patients showed positive correlations with BUN， SCr， UACR， and FBG and negative correlations with eGFR （P<0.05）. ④ Safety outcomes： Neither group showed drug-related adverse reactions， and laboratory safety parameters remained within normal ranges. ConclusionYishen Jiangtang decoction combined with conventional Western medicine treatment may safely and effectively alleviate clinical symptoms， correct glucose and lipid metabolism disorders， and protect the renal function in patients with stage G3A3 DKD and the pattern of Qi-Yin deficiency combined with dampness-heat and blood stasis. The mechanism may be associated with inhibition of the ERS-apoptosis axis and delay of the RF process.

ObjectiveTo observe the clinical efficacy and safety of Yishen Jiangtang decoction combined with conventional Western medicine treatment in managing stage G3A3 diabetic kidney disease （DKD） in the patients with the pattern of Qi-Yin deficiency combined with dampness-heat and blood stasis， and to explore its mechanism of inhibiting the endoplasmic reticulum stress （ERS）-apoptosis axis and delaying renal fibrosis （RF）. MethodsA single-center， randomized， parallel-controlled clinical trial was conducted. A total of 78 patients diagnosed with stage G3A3 DKD and traditional Chinese medicine （TCM） pattern of Qi-Yin deficiency combined with dampness-heat and blood stasis and treated in the Department of Nephrology and the Department of Endocrinology of the People's Hospital Affiliated to Fujian University of Traditional Chinese Medicine from March 2025 to February 2026 were enrolled. They were randomly assigned at a 1∶1 ratio into a control group （conventional Western medicine treatment） and an experimental group （Yishen Jiangtang decoction combined with conventional Western medicine treatment）， with 39 patients in each group. The treatment lasted for 12 weeks. Basic demographic data and medical history were collected before and after treatment. The two groups before and after treatment were compared in terms of the following parameters： Blood urea nitrogen （BUN）， serum creatinine （SCr）， estimated glomerular filtration rate （eGFR）， urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio （UACR）， fasting blood glucose （FBG）， triglycerides （TG）， total cholesterol （TC）， and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol （LDL-C）. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay （ELISA） kits were used to measure serum glucose-regulated protein 78 （GRP78）， serum cysteinyl aspartate-specific protease-3 （Caspase-3）， and serum and urinary transforming growth factor-β₁ （TGF-β₁） levels before and after treatment. TCM symptom scores， TCM syndrome efficacy， and overall clinical efficacy were evaluated before and after treatment. Spearman correlation analysis was performed to explore the correlations of serum levels of GRP78 and Caspase-3， as well as serum and urinary levels of TGF-β1， with renal function， proteinuria， and glucose and lipid metabolism indicators in patients with DKD. In addition， safety indicators were also monitored. ResultsA total of 75 patients completed the study （38 in the control group and 37 in the experimental group）. ① Baseline data： The two groups were comparable in terms of sex and age， with no statistically significant difference. ② Efficacy outcomes： Compared with baseline levels， both groups showed reductions in BUN， SCr， UACR， FBG， TG， TC， LDL-C， and TCM symptom scores （P<0.01） and increases in eGFR level （P<0.01）. Moreover， the experimental group outperformed the control group in altering the indicators above （P<0.05）. Regarding TCM syndrome efficacy， the total response rate in the experimental group was 83.78%， which was higher than that （57.89%） in the control group （P<0.05）. Regarding overall clinical efficacy， the total response rate in the experimental group was 78.38%， which was higher than that （50.00%） in the control group （P<0.05）. ③ Mechanism outcomes： Compared with baseline levels， both groups showed declined serum levels of GRP78， Caspase-3， and TGF-β₁ and urinary level of TGF-β₁ after treatment （P<0.01）. Moreover， the experimental group showed greater declines than the control group （P<0.05）. The serum levels of GRP78， Caspase-3，and TGF-β₁ and the urinary level of TGF-β₁ in DKD patients showed positive correlations with BUN， SCr， UACR， and FBG and negative correlations with eGFR （P<0.05）. ④ Safety outcomes： Neither group showed drug-related adverse reactions， and laboratory safety parameters remained within normal ranges. ConclusionYishen Jiangtang decoction combined with conventional Western medicine treatment may safely and effectively alleviate clinical symptoms， correct glucose and lipid metabolism disorders， and protect the renal function in patients with stage G3A3 DKD and the pattern of Qi-Yin deficiency combined with dampness-heat and blood stasis. The mechanism may be associated with inhibition of the ERS-apoptosis axis and delay of the RF process.

The recombinant human thyroid-stimulating hormone (rhTSH) can be used for differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) preparation before ¹³¹I therapy, and follow-up. Since its approval by the American Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in 1998, rhTSH has been clinically used in European countries, the United States, and other countries for nearly 30 years. In April 2024, China’s first independently developed rhTSH agent was approved. Based on clinical experience and evidence from domestic and international studies, an expert consensus on the application of rhTSH has been developed following thorough consultations among experts. The consensus offers evidence-based recommendations to guide the appropriate use of rhTSH in clinical practice.

Metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) and osteoporosis (OP) are two very common metabolic diseases. A growing body of experimental evidence supports a pathophysiological link between MAFLD and OP. MAFLD is often associated with the development of OP. Rutaecarpine (RUT) is one of the main active components of Chinese medicine Euodiae Fructus. Our previous studies have demonstrated that RUT has lipid-lowering, anti-inflammatory and anti-atherosclerotic effects, and can improve the OP of rats. However, whether RUT can improve both fatty liver and OP symptoms of MAFLD mice at the same time remains to be investigated. In this study, we used C57BL/6 mice fed a high-fat diet (HFD) for 4 months to construct a MAFLD model, and gave the mice a low dose (5 mg·kg^-1) and a high dose (15 mg·kg^-1) of RUT by gavage for 4 weeks. The effects of RUT on liver steatosis and bone metabolism were then evaluated at the end of the experiment [this experiment was approved by the Experimental Animal Ethics Committee of Institute of Medicinal Biotechnology, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences (approval number: IMB-20190124D₃03)]. The results showed that RUT treatment significantly reduced hepatic steatosis and lipid accumulation, and significantly reduced bone loss and promoted bone formation. In summary, this study shows that RUT has an effect of improving fatty liver and OP in MAFLD mice.

ObjectiveTo explore the effect of Buzhong Yiqitang on exercise-induced fatigue and its potential mechanism. MethodsSixty male SPF-grade C57BL/6J mice were randomized into blank， model， low-， medium-， high-dose （4.1， 8.2， 16.4 g·kg^-1， respectively） Buzhong Yiqitang， and vitamin C （0.04 g·kg^-1） groups. The blank and model groups were administrated with normal saline. Each group was administrated with corresponding agents by gavage at a dose of 0.2 mL once a day. Except the blank group， other groups underwent a 6-weeks exhaustive swimming test under negative gravity. At the end of the experiment， blood was collected， and the thymus， spleen， liver， and kidney weights were measured. Serum levels of lactic acid （LD）， blood urea nitrogen （BUN）， creatine kinase （CK）， and malondialdehyde （MDA） were assessed by kits to evaluate fatigue. Hematoxylin-eosin staining was performed to observe pathological changes in the skeletal muscle. Electron microscopy was used to examine the skeletal muscle cell ultrastructure， with a focus on mitochondrial morphological changes. The adenosine triphosphate （ATP） content and activities of mitochondrial respiratory chain complexes Ⅰ， Ⅱ， and Ⅴ in skeletal muscle were determined by kits. The expression levels of key genes and proteins in the PTEN-induced putative kinase 1 （PINK1）-mediated mitochondrial homeostasis pathways in the skeletal muscle were evaluated via Real-time PCR and Western blot， respectively. ResultsCompared with the blank group， the model group showed reductions in weight gain rate （P<0.01） and thymus index （P<0.01）， rises in serum levels of LD， BUN， MDA， and CK （P<0.01）， disarrangement of skeletal muscle， broken muscle fibers， inflammatory cell infiltration in muscle fiber gaps， abnormal morphological changes （increased vacuolated mitochondria and disappearance of cristae） of mitochondria in skeletal muscle cells， and decreased mitochondria. In addition， the skeletal muscle in the model group showed reduced content of ATP， weakened activities of mitochondrial respiratory chain complexes Ⅰ， Ⅱ， and Ⅴ （P<0.05）， up-regulated mRNA levels of PINK1， E3 ubiquitin-protein ligase （Parkin）， hairy/enhancer-of-split related with YRPW motif 1 （HEY1）， dynamin-related protein 1 （Drp1）， sequestosome 1 （p62）， and hypoxia-inducible factor 1 alpha （HIF-1α） （P<0.05）， and down-regulated protein level of microtubule-associated protein 1-light chain 3B （LC3B） （P<0.01）. Compared with the model group， Buzhong Yiqitang prolonged the swimming exhaustion time （P<0.01）， increased the weight gain rate （P<0.01） and thymus index （P<0.01）， lowered the serum levels of LD， BUN， MDA， and CK （P<0.05， P<0.01）. The skeletal muscle in the Buzhong Yiqitang groups showed neat arrangement， reduced inflammatory cells， intact mitochondria with dense cristae， and increased mitochondria. In addition， the skeletal muscle in the Buzhong Yiqitang groups showcased increased ATP content， enhanced activities of mitochondrial respiratory chain complexes Ⅰ， Ⅱ， and Ⅴ （P<0.05， P<0.01）， up-regulated protein levels of PINK1， Parkin， HEY1， LC3B， and Drp1 and mRNA level of HIF-1α （P<0.05， P<0.01）， and down-regulated expression level of p62 （P<0.05， P<0.01）. ConclusionBuzhong Yiqitang can prevent and treat exercise-induced fatigue by regulating the mitochondrial homeostasis of skeletal muscle via the HIF-1α/PINK1/Parkin and HIF-1α/HEY1/PINK1 signaling pathways.

ObjectiveTo explore the effect of Buzhong Yiqitang on exercise-induced fatigue and its potential mechanism. MethodsSixty male SPF-grade C57BL/6J mice were randomized into blank， model， low-， medium-， high-dose （4.1， 8.2， 16.4 g·kg^-1， respectively） Buzhong Yiqitang， and vitamin C （0.04 g·kg^-1） groups. The blank and model groups were administrated with normal saline. Each group was administrated with corresponding agents by gavage at a dose of 0.2 mL once a day. Except the blank group， other groups underwent a 6-weeks exhaustive swimming test under negative gravity. At the end of the experiment， blood was collected， and the thymus， spleen， liver， and kidney weights were measured. Serum levels of lactic acid （LD）， blood urea nitrogen （BUN）， creatine kinase （CK）， and malondialdehyde （MDA） were assessed by kits to evaluate fatigue. Hematoxylin-eosin staining was performed to observe pathological changes in the skeletal muscle. Electron microscopy was used to examine the skeletal muscle cell ultrastructure， with a focus on mitochondrial morphological changes. The adenosine triphosphate （ATP） content and activities of mitochondrial respiratory chain complexes Ⅰ， Ⅱ， and Ⅴ in skeletal muscle were determined by kits. The expression levels of key genes and proteins in the PTEN-induced putative kinase 1 （PINK1）-mediated mitochondrial homeostasis pathways in the skeletal muscle were evaluated via Real-time PCR and Western blot， respectively. ResultsCompared with the blank group， the model group showed reductions in weight gain rate （P<0.01） and thymus index （P<0.01）， rises in serum levels of LD， BUN， MDA， and CK （P<0.01）， disarrangement of skeletal muscle， broken muscle fibers， inflammatory cell infiltration in muscle fiber gaps， abnormal morphological changes （increased vacuolated mitochondria and disappearance of cristae） of mitochondria in skeletal muscle cells， and decreased mitochondria. In addition， the skeletal muscle in the model group showed reduced content of ATP， weakened activities of mitochondrial respiratory chain complexes Ⅰ， Ⅱ， and Ⅴ （P<0.05）， up-regulated mRNA levels of PINK1， E3 ubiquitin-protein ligase （Parkin）， hairy/enhancer-of-split related with YRPW motif 1 （HEY1）， dynamin-related protein 1 （Drp1）， sequestosome 1 （p62）， and hypoxia-inducible factor 1 alpha （HIF-1α） （P<0.05）， and down-regulated protein level of microtubule-associated protein 1-light chain 3B （LC3B） （P<0.01）. Compared with the model group， Buzhong Yiqitang prolonged the swimming exhaustion time （P<0.01）， increased the weight gain rate （P<0.01） and thymus index （P<0.01）， lowered the serum levels of LD， BUN， MDA， and CK （P<0.05， P<0.01）. The skeletal muscle in the Buzhong Yiqitang groups showed neat arrangement， reduced inflammatory cells， intact mitochondria with dense cristae， and increased mitochondria. In addition， the skeletal muscle in the Buzhong Yiqitang groups showcased increased ATP content， enhanced activities of mitochondrial respiratory chain complexes Ⅰ， Ⅱ， and Ⅴ （P<0.05， P<0.01）， up-regulated protein levels of PINK1， Parkin， HEY1， LC3B， and Drp1 and mRNA level of HIF-1α （P<0.05， P<0.01）， and down-regulated expression level of p62 （P<0.05， P<0.01）. ConclusionBuzhong Yiqitang can prevent and treat exercise-induced fatigue by regulating the mitochondrial homeostasis of skeletal muscle via the HIF-1α/PINK1/Parkin and HIF-1α/HEY1/PINK1 signaling pathways.

BackgroundCurrently， the problem of depressed mood in college students is becoming more prominent. The experience of childhood maltreatment is a significant contributor to depression among college students. Although the association between the two has been confirmed， the specific psychosocial mechanisms underlying how childhood maltreatment affects college students' mental health remain insufficiently evidenced. ObjectiveTo explore the mediating role of emotion regulation difficulties in the relationship between childhood maltreatment and depression among college students， and to investigate the moderated effects of psychological resilience and family socioeconomic status， aiming to provide references for improving depressive symptoms in college students. MethodsOn 14 March 2024， a cluster sampling method was employed to recruit 751 college students from a university in Heilongjiang Province. Participants were assessed with Childhood Trauma Questionnaire （CTQ）， Difficulties in Emotion Regulation Scale （DERS）， Patients' Health Questionnaire Depression Scale-9 item （PHQ-9）， 10-item Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale （CD-RISC-10） and Family Socioeconomic Status Questionnaire. Pearson correlation analysis was adopted to examine the correlation between the scores of scales. Model 4 and model 7 in Process 4.2 were used to test the mediating effects of emotional regulation difficulties and the moderated effects of psychological resilience and family socioeconomic status. Results① A total of 712 （94.81%） valid questionnaires were collected. ② College students' CTQ score was positively correlated with DERS score and PHQ-9 score （r=0.296， 0.507， P<0.01）， and negatively correlated with CD-RISC-10 score and Family Socioeconomic Status Questionnaire score （r=-0.148， -0.229， P<0.01）. ③ The indirect effect value of difficulties in emotion regulation on the relationship between childhood maltreatment and depression was 0.091 （95% CI： 0.018~0.046）， accounting for 17.95% of the total effect. ④ The first half of the mediation model "childhood maltreatment → difficulties in emotion regulation → depression" （childhood maltreatment → difficulties in emotion regulation） was moderated by psychological resilience （β=-0.030， t=-6.147， 95% CI： -0.040~-0.020） and family socioeconomic status （β=-0.051， t=-3.929， 95% CI： -0.077~-0.026）. ConclusionChildhood maltreatment exerts both a direct effect on college students' depression and an indirect effect through emotion regulation difficulties. The childhood maltreatment → emotion regulation difficulties pathway in this mediation model is moderated by psychological resilience and family socioeconomic status. ［Funded by Qiqihar Medical University Graduate Student Innovation Fund Project （number， QYYCX2023-48）； Special Research Fund Project for Young Doctors of Qiqihar Academy of Medical Sciences （number， QMSI2021B-08）］

ObjectiveTo develop a nomogram-based risk prediction model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) incidence among the community-dwelling population aged 40 years old and above, so as to provide targeted references for the screening and prevention of COPD. MethodsBased on a natural population cohort in suburban Shanghai, a total of 3 381 randomly selected participants aged ≥40 years underwent pulmonary function tests between July and October 2021. Cox stepwise regression analysis was used to develop overall and gender-specific risk prediction models, along with the construction of corresponding risk nomograms. Model predictive performance was evaluated using the C-indice, area under the curve (AUC) values, and Brier score. Stability was assessed through 10-fold cross-validation and sensitivity analysis. ResultsA total of 3 019 participants were included, with a median follow-up duration of 4.6 years. The COPD incidence density was 17.22 per 1 000 person-years, significantly higher in males (32.04/1 000 person-years) than that in females (7.38/1 000 person-years) (P<0.001). The overall risk prediction model included the variables such as gender, age, education level, BMI, smoking, passive smoking, and respiratory comorbidities. The male-specific model incorporated the variables such as age, BMI, respiratory comorbidities, and smoking, while the female-specific model included age, marital status, respiratory comorbidities, and pulmonary tuberculosis history. The C-indices for the overall, male-specific, and female-specific models were 0.829, 0.749, and 0.807, respectively. The 5-year AUC values were 0.785, 0.658, and 0.811, with Brier scores of 0.103, 0.176, and 0.059, respectively. Both 10-fold cross-validated C-indices and sensitivity analysis (excluding participants with a follow-up duration of <6 months) yielded C-indices were above 0.740. ConclusionThis study developed concise and practical overall and gender-specific COPD risk prediction models and corresponding nomograms. The models demonstrated robust performance in predicting COPD incidence, providing a valuable reference for identifying high-risk populations and formulating targeted screening and personalized management strategies.