1.Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of and trends in disease burden of dengue fever in China from 2005 to 2024
Lianfang FENG ; Meng SHANG ; Jiarong REN ; Xiaoxu WANG ; Haoqiang JI ; Xinning HAO ; Jing LI ; Qiyong LIU
Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control 2026;38(2):137-147
Objective To analyze the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of and trends in the disease burden of dengue fever in China from 2005 to 2024, so as to provide insights into formulation of dengue fever control strategies. Methods Data pertaining to dengue fever cases in China from 2005 to 2024 were retrieved from the Infectious Disease Reporting Information System of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and city population, gross domestic product (GDP), GDP per capita, and consumer price index in China were captured from the China Statistical Yearbook, National Bureau of Statistics of China, the China City Statistical Yearbook, and bureaus of statistics in each city. The disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) due to dengue fever were calculated in China from 2005 to 2024. The direct and indirect economic burdens of dengue fever were estimated to calculate the total economic burden. The trends in the disease burden of dengue fever were estimated in China from 2005 to 2024 using a Joinpoint regression model with the software Joinpoint 4.9.0.0, and the average annual percent change (AAPC) and its 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated. In addition, the DALYs rate and economic burden of dengue fever in China were subjected to global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses using the software ArcGIS 10.8. Results The gross DALYs due to dengue fever were 5 558 person-years in China from 2005 to 2024, and the DALYs of dengue fever increased from 36 person-years in 2005 to 899 person-years in 2024, with an increase of 23.97 folds. The average annual DALYs rate of dengue fever was 0.02 person-years/105 in China during the 20-year study period from 2005 to 2024, and the DALYs rate peaked in 2014 (0.13 person-years/105) and reduced during the COVID-19 pandemic from 2020 to 2022. YLDs were the main contributor of DALYs due to dengue fever in China from 2005 to 2024, with a total of 5 354 person-years, accounting for 96.33% (5 354 person-years/5 558 person-years) of the gross DALYs. The gross DALYs of dengue fever were 2 982 person-years among men (53.66%) and 2 575 person-years among women (46.34%) in China from 2005 to 2024, and high DALYs of dengue fever were measured among residents at ages of 15 to 30 years (1 639 person-years), 30 to 45 years (1 857 person-years), and 45 to 60 years (1 204 person-years), respectively, accounting for 84.56% (4 700 person-years/5 558 person-years) of total DALYs due to dengue fever in China. The total economic burden of dengue fever was estimated to be 612 million Yuan in China from 2005 to 2024, with an average annual economic burden of 30.584 million Yuan. The economic burden of dengue fever increased from 196 000 Yuan in 2005 to 121 million Yuan in 2024 in China, with an increase of 616.35 folds, and the per capita economic burden increased from 3 322.21 Yuan in 2005 to 4 940.01 Yuan in 2024, with an increase of 48.70%. Dengue fever cases were reported in 274 cities (counties) across 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) in China from 2005 to 2024, with relatively higher DALYs in Guangdong Province and Yunnan Province. Spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed that the disease burden of dengue fever appeared positive aggregation in Chinese cities (counties) from 2005 to 2024 (global Moran’s I = 0.045, Z = 2.24, P < 0.05), with high-high clusters mainly concentrated in the Pearl River Delta region in Guangdong Province and Xishuangbanna Dai Autonomous Prefecture and Pu’er City in Yunnan Province, and the total economic burden (global Moran’s I = 0.032, Z = 9.55, P < 0.001), per capita economic burden (global Moran’s I = 0.208, Z = 27.34, P < 0.001), and the proportion of total economic burdens in GDP in 2024 (global Moran’s I = 0.017, Z = 5.91, P < 0.001) all presented positive aggregation, with relatively higher total economic burdens mainly concentrated in Guangdong Province and Yunnan Province. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the gross DALYs rates of dengue fever appeared an overall tendency towards a rise in China from 2005 to 2024 (AAPC = 16.24%, P = 0.029), and the DALYs rate presented an overall tendency towards a rise among both men (AAPC = 14.75%, P = 0.028) and women (AAPC = 14.93%, P = 0.037) during the study period. The per capita direct economic burden appeared an overall tendency towards a rise among dengue fever patients in China from 2005 to 2024 (AAPC = 2.16%, P = 0.012); however, there was no significant difference in the trends in the per capita indirect economic burden (AAPC = 0.46%, P = 0.470). In addition, the DALYs rate of dengue fever appeared a tendency towards a rise in 84.67% (232/274) of cities (counties) in China from 2005 to 2024, and the per capita economic burden appeared a tendency towards a rise in 85.40% (234/274) of cities (counties), while the DALYs rate and per capita economic burden of dengue fever appeared a tendency towards a rise in 77.01% (211/274) of cities (counties). Conclusions The disease burden of dengue fever significantly increased in China from 2005 to 2024. It is recommended to reinforce integrated dengue fever control in high-risk areas and among high-risk populations, and to improve the surveillance of imported dengue fever cases and vector control.
2.Effects and mechanisms of atomization on the transdermal delivery behavior of active ingredients with diverse properties
Yating CHEN ; Ruifang HAN ; Jing SHANG ; Xiang LI ; Bin CU ; Wenting SONG
Journal of China Pharmaceutical University 2026;57(3):332-340
This study systematically examined the effects of atomization as a transdermal permeation enhancer on the transdermal delivery of active ingredients with different physicochemical properties and investigated the underlying mechanisms. Porcine ear skin served as an in vitro model, and skin permeation experiments were conducted using Franz diffusion cells. Receptor fluids were collected at specific time points, and samples of the stratum corneum and viable epidermis–dermis were separated and prepared. Quantitative and visualization methods, including high-performance liquid chromatography, fluorescence derivatization, and confocal laser scanning microscopy, were used to compare skin retention and transdermal permeation of adenosine (AD), tranexamic acid (TXA), calcein (CAL), and tocopheryl acetate (TA) under atomized and non-atomized conditions. Additionally, transepidermal water loss (TEWL) measurements and attenuated total reflectance–Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (ATR-FTIR) were employed to analyze the mechanism behind the penetration enhancement caused by atomization. The findings showed that atomization increased skin retention within the stratum corneum and viable epidermis–dermis, as well as the transdermal permeation of all four active ingredients to varying degrees. The most significant enhancement was observed for TXA, which has a relatively low molecular weight and moderate lipophilicity, while the enhancement effects for highly hydrophilic AD and highly lipophilic TA were comparatively limited; however, atomization significantly increased the skin retention of TA. TEWL results indicated that skin permeability increased within 4 hours after atomization and largely recovered within 8 hours. ATR-FTIR analysis suggested that atomization may facilitate transdermal delivery by disrupting the lipid order and keratin conformation in the stratum corneum.This study provides theoretical support and experimental references for the advancement of atomization transdermal delivery technology, as well as the design and development of related atomization products.
3.Necroptosis in Exercise-induced Skeletal Muscle Damage: Roles and Regulatory Mechanisms
Zhi-Fei KE ; Wen-Jing SONG ; Yun-Feng DONG ; Hua-Yu SHANG
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2026;53(7):1884-1895
Exercise-induced muscle damage (EIMD) is a frequent form of skeletal muscle microdamage that occurs after high-intensity, prolonged, or unaccustomed exercise, especially exercise dominated by eccentric contractions. It is commonly characterized by delayed-onset muscle soreness, transient loss of muscle strength, local inflammation, structural disruption of myofibers, and delayed functional recovery. Although mild EIMD may serve as a stimulus for training adaptation, excessive or insufficiently recovered muscle damage can impair exercise performance, disturb training continuity, and reduce participation in physical activity. Therefore, clarifying the molecular mechanisms that underlie the initiation, amplification, and resolution of EIMD is important for optimizing athletic training, improving post-exercise recovery, and guiding evidence-based public fitness practice. Necroptosis is a regulated form of programmed cell death mediated primarily by the receptor-interacting protein kinase (RIPK) 1/RIPK3/mixed lineage kinase domain-like protein (MLKL) signaling axis. Recent studies have shown that necroptosis is closely involved in tissue injury, sterile inflammation, and repair remodeling. However, whether necroptosis acts as an initiating driver, a secondary damage amplifier, or an adaptive signal required for repair after EIMD remains unclear. This review aimed to summarize the potential role of necroptosis in EIMD and to establish a mechanistic framework linking regulated cell death, inflammatory amplification, immune regulation, and skeletal muscle repair. Relevant studies concerning EIMD, necroptosis, RIPK1/RIPK3/MLKL signaling, damage-associated molecular patterns (DAMPs), inflammatory responses, immune cell recruitment, extracellular matrix remodeling, and muscle regeneration were reviewed and integrated. On this basis, the possible temporal and functional involvement of necroptosis in different phases of EIMD was analyzed. The main evidence summarized in this review suggests that EIMD is not merely a consequence of primary mechanical disruption. Instead, it develops through a dynamic sequence that includes sarcolemmal instability, calcium overload, mitochondrial dysfunction, oxidative stress, inflammatory mediator production, immune cell infiltration, necrotic tissue clearance, and regeneration-associated remodeling. Necroptosis may participate in this process through at least two interconnected mechanisms. First, in the early or progressive phase of EIMD, activation of the RIPK1/RIPK3/MLKL signaling axis may promote MLKL phosphorylation and plasma membrane permeabilization, leading to the release of DAMPs such as high-mobility group box 1, ATP, mitochondrial DNA, and other intracellular components. These signals may activate innate immune pathways, amplify inflammatory cytokine production, and enhance the recruitment of neutrophils and macrophages, thereby aggravating secondary inflammation and extending muscle fiber injury. Second, during the resolution and repair phases, necroptosis-related signaling may also contribute indirectly to the formation of a regenerative microenvironment. By influencing the clearance of necrotic debris, the recruitment and phenotypic transition of immune cells, and the remodeling of extracellular matrix components, necroptosis may affect satellite cell activation, myogenic repair, and the eventual structural and functional recovery of injured skeletal muscle. Thus, the biological effect of necroptosis in EIMD may be context dependent rather than uniformly harmful. Its outcome may depend on exercise intensity, the extent of tissue damage, the timing of pathway activation, the involved cell types, inflammatory status, training background, age, and metabolic condition. In conclusion, necroptosis may represent an important molecular link between skeletal muscle injury, sterile inflammation, and tissue repair after damaging exercise. It may exert a dual role in EIMD by amplifying secondary damage while also contributing to repair coordination under appropriate temporal and microenvironmental conditions. Future studies should determine the activation pattern of RIPK1/RIPK3/MLKL signaling after different exercise protocols, identify the major cell populations undergoing necroptosis in injured skeletal muscle, and examine whether targeted modulation of necroptosis can reduce excessive inflammation without impairing necessary regenerative responses. This review provides a theoretical basis for understanding the pathogenesis of EIMD and for developing targeted strategies to improve skeletal muscle recovery after exercise-induced injury.
4.Effect and mechanism of Tangzhi formula in improving glucose and lipid metabolism in type 2 diabetic rats
Jing CHEN ; Min BAI ; Fubin SHANG ; Runsheng YU ; Yan SU ; Jianfeng WANG ; Xiangdong ZHU
China Pharmacy 2026;37(16):2112-2118
OBJECTIVE To investigate the effect and mechanism of Tangzhi formula(TZF) on improving glucose and lipid metabolism disorders in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) rats.METHODS Thirty SPF-grade SD rats were used to establish a T2DM rat model through high-fat diet feeding combined with intraperitoneal injection of streptozotocin. After successful modeling, the rats were divided into the model group, metformin group (positive control, 0.18 g/kg), and TZF low-, medium-, and high-dose groups (5, 10, and 20 g/kg), with 6 rats in each group. An additional 6 rats were selected as the blank group. The rats in each group were orally administered the corresponding volume of drug solution or saline, and continuous dosing was performed for 6 weeks, once daily. Fasting blood glucose (FBG), area under the curve of oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT-AUC), area under the curve of intraperitoneal insulin tolerance test (IPITT-AUC), serum total cholesterol (TC), triglyceride (TG), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels were measured. Hematoxylin-eosin (HE) staining and oil red O staining were used to observe hepatic pathological morphology and lipid deposition. Differentially expressed proteins in liver tissues were screened by proteomics analysis, and key proteins in signaling pathways were verified by Western blot and immunofluorescence staining.RESULTS Compared with the blank group, the levels of FBG, OGTT-AUC, IPITT-AUC, LDL-C, TG, and TC in the model group were significantly increased ( P <0.05), while HDL-C level was significantly decreased ( P <0.05); the liver tissues showed disordered hepatic cords, punctate necrosis of hepatocytes, and significant lipid deposition, the NAFLD activity score and positive area of lipid droplets were significantly increased( P <0.05). Compared with the model group, the above indicators in TZF low-, medium-, and high-dose groups and metformin group were significantly reversed ( P <0.05); hepatic pathological injury and lipid deposition were alleviated. Proteomics results showed that a total of 442 differentially expressed proteins were screened between the model group and the blank group, and 358 differentially expressed proteins were screened between the TZF high-dose group and the model group. Among these differentially expressed proteins, multiple proteins closely related to glucose and lipid metabolism showed a reversal trend after TZF intervention. Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes pathway enrichment analysis showed that the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR) signaling pathway was significantly enriched. The validation experiment results showed that TZF could significantly up-regulate the expression of PPARα, PPARγ, and apolipoprotein A1 (ApoA1) in rat liver tissues ( P <0.05), and down-regulate the expression of stearoyl-CoA desaturase 1 (SCD1) and perilipin 2 (PLIN2) ( P <0.05).CONCLUSIONS TZF can improve glucose and lipid metabolism disorders in T2DM rats; its mechanism may be related to the activation of the PPAR signaling pathway and the regulation of downstream lipid metabolism-related proteins SCD1, PLIN2, and ApoA1.
5.Practice and optimization pathways of the surveillance - response system for schistosomiasis during the elimination stage in China: a One Health perspective
Jiajia WAN ; Jingye SHANG ; Jing XU ; Chen PU ; Nannan WANG ; Rongzhi LI ; Yu ZHANG ; Liang XU ; Xianhong MENG ; Ding LU ; Lin CHEN ; Zisong WU ; Bo ZHONG ; Xiaonong ZHOU ; Yang LIU
Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control 2026;38(4):361-368
This paper systematically analyzes schistosomiasis transmission risks during the elimination stage and reviews the evolution of the schistosomiasis surveillance system in China from a One Health perspective, with a special emphasis on schistosomiasis surveillance and response practices during the elimination stage from a One Health perspective. These practices include precise screening of human schistosomiasis under low-endemicity conditions, systematic monitoring of schistosomiasis in domestic and wild animals, ecological management of Oncomelania snails, and information-coordinated responses. Nevertheless, the current surveillance and response system for schistosomiasis suffers from challenges of insufficient cross-sectoral coordination and complex external environments, which constrain precise schistosomiasis surveillance and response in China. Therefore, it is urgently necessary to integrate coordination mechanisms, empower the surveillance system with technological innovation, improve capacity building, and actively promote diverse social participation in the One Health framework, so as to consolidate current schistosomiasis control achievements and achieve the target for schistosomiasis elimination across China, which may provide a replicable technical model for global zoonoses control.
6.Effects of low-dose ionizing radiation on cognitive function and underlying neural mechanisms: A review
Xintian CHEN ; Jiaxin YAN ; Zikang WANG ; Zhi CHENG ; Jing LI ; Mengjuan SHANG
Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine 2026;43(9):1149-1156
With the extensive application of low-dose ionizing radiation (LDIR) in medicine, aerospace, and other fields, the potential for exposure among the general population and occupationally exposed workers has increased, raising growing public health concerns regarding its possible effects on cognitive function. Current occupational and environmental radiation protection frameworks are primarily established based on cancer risk estimates derived from epidemiological evidence under high-dose exposure and extrapolation across dose ranges, whereas evidence regarding non-cancer outcomes, including potential cognitive effects of LDIR, remains limited and inconsistent, and the underlying neurobiological mechanisms have not been fully elucidated. This review summarized recent advances in research on the effects of LDIR on cognitive function and the associated neural mechanisms. Existing evidence indicates that LDIR may adversely affect cognitive domains including spatial memory and object recognition memory under certain exposure conditions, with potential mechanisms involving alterations in synaptic plasticity, microglia activation, neurodevelopmental processes, epigenetic regulation, and DNA damage and repair pathways. In contrast, studies using pathological models, including stroke and neurodegenerative diseases, have reported potential protective effects of LDIR, which may be mediated by attenuation of oxidative stress, neuroinflammation and activation of endogenous repair pathways. This indicates that LDIR has both damaging and protective effects on brain function; a deeper understanding of its patterns and mechanisms can provide a scientific basis for establishing occupational and environmental radiation protection standards. Furthermore, re-examining the LDIR risk assessment system may also offer new insights into exploring the therapeutic potential of LDIR for brain diseases.
7.Scientific basis for acupuncture combined with neural stem cells for repairing spinal cord injury
Xiaomeng HUANG ; Zhilan ZHANG ; Wenya SHANG ; Jing HUANG ; Huilin WEI ; Bing LI ; Yafeng REN
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2025;29(19):4111-4121
BACKGROUND:Spinal cord injury is a neurological disorder caused by traumatic or non-traumatic events,often leading to severe functional impairment below the injured segment.In recent years,neural stem cell transplantation has been considered to have significant therapeutic potential in regulating the inflammatory response after spinal cord injury,inhibiting excessive proliferation of glial scars,and promoting nerve regeneration. OBJECTIVE:To review and discuss the potential mechanism of action of acupuncture and neural stem cell transplantation therapy in inhibiting spinal cord injury-induced secondary injury,and to delve into the scientific basis for its treatment of spinal cord injury. METHODS:PubMed,Elsevier,WanFang,and CNKI databases were searched using"spinal cord injury,acupuncture,neural stem cells,SDF-1α/CXCR4 axis"as Chinese and English search terms.Totally 96 articles were finally included.The research findings of acupuncture combined with neural stem cells in the treatment of spinal cord injury were summarized and analyzed,and the mechanism of this combination therapy in the treatment of secondary injury after spinal cord injury was summarized. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)The stromal-derived factor 1α(SDF-1α)/chemokine receptor 4(CXCR4)axis plays a crucial role in neural stem cell transplantation for spinal cord injury.This signaling mechanism not only affects neural stem cell migration,proliferation,and differentiation,but is also a key factor in determining the efficiency of stem cell homing to the injury site.Therefore,the regulation of targeting this axis is of great significance in enhancing the therapeutic effect of spinal cord injury.(2)Acupuncture,as a traditional Chinese medicine therapy,shows unique advantages in the regulation of secondary injury in spinal cord injury.It can effectively reduce secondary injury after spinal cord injury by regulating inflammatory response,inhibiting apoptosis,improving microcirculation,reducing glial scar formation,and counteracting oxidative stress.(3)Acupuncture was also able to influence the expression and function of the SDF-1α/CXCR4 axis,thereby enhancing the homing and survival ability of neural stem cells and promoting nerve regeneration and functional recovery.(4)The therapy combining acupuncture and stem cell transplantation is an innovative treatment strategy for spinal cord injury and suitable for repairing neural circuits.It combines the wisdom of traditional Chinese medicine with the advantages of modern biotechnology,providing a new treatment option for spinal cord injury patients.However,this combination therapy is still in the research and exploration stage,and its long-term efficacy and safety need to be further verified.(5)Taken together,acupuncture and neural stem cell transplantation for the treatment of spinal cord injury has great potential for clinical application,but in-depth research and optimization of treatment options are still needed.In the future,we look forward to further revealing the efficacy mechanism and optimal indications of this therapy through more clinical trials and mechanism studies,so as to bring better hope of recovery and more efficient therapeutic effects to spinal cord injury patients.
8.Mechanism of action of ginsenoside Rg_2 on diabetic retinopathy and angiogenesis based on YAP/TLRs pathway.
Zhuo-Rong LIU ; Yong-Li SONG ; Shang-Qiu NING ; Yue-Ying YUAN ; Yu-Ting ZHANG ; Gai-Mei HAO ; Jing HAN
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(6):1659-1669
Ginsenoside Rg_2(GRg2) is a triterpenoid compound found in Panax notoginseng. This study explored its effects and mechanisms on diabetic retinopathy and angiogenesis. The study employed endothelial cell models induced by glucose or vascular endothelial growth factor(VEGF), the chorioallantoic membrane(CAM) model, the oxygen-induced retinopathy(OIR) mouse model, and the db/db mouse model to evaluate the therapeutic effects of GRg2 on diabetic retinopathy and angiogenesis. Transwell assays and endothelial tube formation experiments were conducted to assess cell migration and tube formation, while vascular area measurements were applied to detect angiogenesis. The impact of GRg2 on the retinal structure and function of db/db mice was evaluated through retinal thickness and electroretinogram(ERG) analyses. The study investigated the mechanisms of GRg2 by analyzing the activation of Yes-associated protein(YAP) and Toll-like receptors(TLRs) pathways. The results indicated that GRg2 significantly reduced cell migration numbers and tube formation lengths in vitro. In the CAM model, GRg2 exhibited a dose-dependent decrease in the vascular area ratio. In the OIR model, GRg2 notably decreased the avascular and neovascular areas, ameliorating retinal structural disarray. In the db/db mouse model, GRg2 increased the total retinal thickness and enhanced the amplitudes of the a-wave, b-wave, and oscillatory potentials(OPs) in the ERG, improving retinal structural disarray. Transcriptomic analysis revealed that the TLR signaling pathway was significantly down-regulated following YAP knockdown, with PCR results consistent with the transcriptome sequencing findings. Concurrently, GRg2 downregulated the expression of Toll-like receptor 4(TLR4), TNF receptor-associated factor 6(TRAF6), and nuclear factor-kappaB(NF-κB) proteins in high-glucose-induced endothelial cells. Collectively, GRg2 inhibits cell migration and tube formation and significantly reduces angiogenesis in CAM and OIR models, improving retinal structure and function in db/db mice, with its pharmacological mechanism likely involving the down-regulation of YAP expression.
Animals
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Ginsenosides/pharmacology*
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Diabetic Retinopathy/physiopathology*
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Mice
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YAP-Signaling Proteins
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Humans
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Male
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Signal Transduction/drug effects*
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Cell Movement/drug effects*
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Adaptor Proteins, Signal Transducing/genetics*
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Mice, Inbred C57BL
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Neovascularization, Pathologic/metabolism*
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Drugs, Chinese Herbal/administration & dosage*
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Panax notoginseng/chemistry*
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Endothelial Cells/metabolism*
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Transcription Factors/genetics*
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Angiogenesis
9.Regulatory mechanisms and therapeutic strategies of microcirculation after spinal cord injury
Jing HUANG ; Ya-Feng REN ; Wen-Ya SHANG ; Zhi-Lan ZHANG ; Xiao-Meng HUANG ; Bing LI
Medical Journal of Chinese People's Liberation Army 2025;50(3):358-365
Spinal cord injury(SCI)is a structural and functional disruption of the spinal cord caused by various factors,leading to neurological dysfunction.As a common central nervous system disorder in clinical practice,SCI poses significant risks to human life and health.Its pathological mechanism is exceedingly complex,involving multiple pathological processes.Given the irreversibility of primary injury,targeting secondary injury has gradually become the main direction for the clinical treatment of SCI in recent years.Recent studies have highlighted the crucial role of blood-spinal cord barrier damage and microvascular dysfunction in the progression of secondary injury following SCI.Therefore,investigating the pathological mechanisms of microcirculation and exploring targeted therapies could provide valuable insights for clinical SCI treatment.This paper aims to provide an objective review of the role of microcirculation in SCI,identify the critical regulators of microvascular function,and summarize strategies for treating SCI by targeting microcirculation.The findings of this study may offer novel references for the clinical management of SCI.
10.Age-period-cohort model analysis and prediction of breast cancer incidence and mortality among Chinese women from 1992 to 2021
Qing SHANG ; Hai-Peng WANG ; Jing WANG
Medical Journal of Chinese People's Liberation Army 2025;50(4):436-443
Objective To analyze the trends in incidence and mortality of breast cancer among Chinese women from 1992 to 2021,assess the impact of age,period,and cohort on its incidence and mortality rates,and predict future trends to provide a basis for developing effective intervention strategies.Methods Utilizing the 2021 Global Burden of Disease(GBD2021)database,the Joinpoint regression model was employed to analyze the trends in age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of breast cancer among Chinese women from 1992 to 2021.The age-period-cohort model was applied to estimate the age,period,and cohort effects on the incidence and mortality of breast cancer among Chinese women during the same period.The autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model was used to predict the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of breast cancer among Chinese women from 2022 to 2026.A stratified analysis was conducted to explore the impact of different risk factors[including smoking,alcohol consumption,high body mass index(BMI),hyperglycemia,physical inactivity,and diet]on breast cancer mortality.Results From 1992 to 2021,the incidence and mortality rates of breast cancer among Chinese women showed an overall upward trend,with incidence rates rising from 15.95/100,000 in 1992 to 55.54/100,000 in 2021,and mortality rates increasing from 7.35/100,000 to 12.41/100,000.The age-standardized incidence rate also exhibited an upward trend,rising from 18.51/100,000 to 37.00/100,000,with an average annual percentage change(AAPC)of 2.43%.However,the age-standardized mortality rate showed an overall downward trend,decreasing from 9.05/100,000 to 8.24/100,000,with an AAPC of-0.35%.The APC model analysis revealed that the age,period,and cohort effects on incidence and mortality were statistically significant(P<0.001).Within the same birth cohort,breast cancer incidence increased in women aged 15-89 years but decreased in those≥90 years.Breast cancer mortality showed a steady increase with age.With the increase in years,the risk of breast cancer incidence gradually increased,reaching the highest between 2017 and 2021,with a relative risk(RR)value of 1.37.Conversely,the risk of breast cancer mortality decreased with the increase in years,with the lowest mortality between 2012 and 2016,and an RR value of 0.86.With the increase in the birth cohort year,the risk of breast cancer incidence gradually increased,while the risk of mortality gradually decreased.The ARIMA model prediction results showed that the age-standardized incidence rate of breast cancer among women would continue to rise from 2022 to 2026,reaching 40.25/100,000 by 2026,while the age-standardized mortality rate would tend to stabilize at 8.28/100,000 by 2026.Among the risk factors for breast cancer,diet was found to have the highest impact on breast cancer mortality.Conclusions The incidence rate of breast cancer among Chinese women continues to rise,indicating that the prevention and control situation remains severe.Future efforts should focus on developing precise screening programs for high-risk populations and optimizing early screening strategies and treatment resource allocation based on predicted trend.

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