Objective:To investigate the application of time series models in forecasting pre-hospital emergency ambulance trips in Handan City and develop the LPro ensemble model for improved prediction accuracy to support emergency resource allocation.Methods:Pre-hospital emergency data from Handan Emergency Medical Command Center (2019-2023) were retrospectively analyzed. From 324 799 original records, 289 949 valid records were included after cleaning. The training set (2019-2022: 215 918 records) included 35 527 records in 2019, 52 015 in 2020, 61 836 in 2021, and 66 540 in 2022. The validation set (2023) contained 74 031 records. ARIMA, linear trend seasonal, exponential smoothing, and Prophet models were fitted to the training set. The LPro ensemble model was constructed using MAPE-based weighting (linear trend seasonal model: 0.38, Prophet: 0.62). Performance metrics included MAPE, RMSE, MAE, and R 2. Results:Data showed annual growth (compound annual growth rate 23.27%) and seasonal patterns (October peaks, February troughs). Ambulance dispatches increased annually with monthly cyclical patterns. For 2023 validation predictions: ARIMA (MAPE 8.76%, RMSE 619, MAE 491, R 2 0.4563), linear trend seasonal (MAPE 9.83%, RMSE 671, MAE 545, R 2 0.3608), Prophet (MAPE 8.43%, RMSE 562, MAE 503, R 2 0.5513), exponential smoothing (MAPE 8.08%, RMSE 643, MAE 410, R 2 0.4124). LPro model showed superior performance (MAPE 7.05%, RMSE 491, MAE 393, R 2 0.6570), with 16.37% lower MAPE, 12.63% lower RMSE, 21.87% lower MAE, and 19.17% higher R 2 versus Prophet. Conclusion:The LPro ensemble model substantially enhances prediction accuracy and reliability, offering scientific support for emergency resource optimization and dispatch scheduling in Handan City.

Objective:To compare demographic characteristics,clinical characteristics,therapeutic characteris-tics and physiological indicators of patients with bipolar Ⅰ disorder and bipolar Ⅱ disorder.Methods:A total of 381 patients with bipolar disorder(BD)diagnosed by the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders 5 th Edi-tion(DSM-5)were selected,including 302 patients with BD-Ⅰ(79.27％),74 patients with BD-Ⅱ(19.42％)and 5 patients with other specific and related disorders(1.31％).Demographic and clinical characteristics were collected with self-designed clinical information questionnaire.Multivariate logistic regression and multivariate linear regres-sion analysis were used for analysis.Results:Compared with patients with BD-Ⅱ,patients with BD-Ⅰ had more risk to have psychotic features(OR=5.75,95％CI:2.82-11.76),longer disease duration,and more repeated transcra-nial magnetic therapy(OR=3.09,95％CI:1.02-9.35),higher uric acid,total cholesterol and high-density lipo-protein.BD-Ⅰ in Han nationality was more common(OR=11.50,95％CI:1.76-75.30),and had lower education level(OR=10.22,95％CI:1.16-89.77),and less family history of psychosis(OR=2.34,95％CI:1.01-5.42).Conclusion:There are significant differences between BD-Ⅰ and BD-Ⅱ in demographic and clinical charac-teristics,treatment status,and physiological indicators,which could provide clues for exploring the pathogenesis of bipolar disorder.

Objective To explore the surgical techniques and experiences in the treatment of Peyronie's disease using electric rotary grinding of tunica albuginea plaques followed by graft repair with tunica vaginalis or bovine pericardium under a microscope.Methods A retrospective cohort study was performed on 21 patients with severe penile curvature due to Peyronie's disease admitted in our department from January 2021 and May 2023.All of them underwent microscopic electric rotary grinding of tunica albuginea plaques followed by graft repair surgery.Short-term and mid-term outcomes were observed.Results For the 21 enrolled patients,12(57.1％)underwent repair using unilateral tunica vaginalis,3(14.3％)underwent repair using bilateral tunica vaginalis,and 6(28.6％)underwent repair using bovine pericardium.The operation time was 170～385(average 272±69)min,and the average postoperative follow-up duration was3～24(average 12.1±7.2)months.Seventeen patients(81.0％)had their penis fully extended,while 4 patients(19.0％)had slight dorsal curvature,which was less than 10°.All patients were satisfied with the shape of their penis during erection.The change in penile length was+(1.1±0.5)cm,and 9 patients(42.9％)reported early postoperative penile head numbness,which spontaneously resolved after an average duration of 3.2±1.9 months.All patients were able to successfully engage in sexual activity,with an average penile erection hardness score of 3.8.The overall satisfaction rate was 90.5％post operatively.Conclusion Meticulous dissection of Buck's fascia under a microscope is advantageous in reliably preserving dorsal neurovascular structures.Application of an electric grinding drill for plaque ablation allows for more precise release of the tunica.Graft repair of tunica albuginea defects with testicular tunica vaginalis or bovine pericardium for Peyronie's disease yields overall favorable clinical outcomes and obtains high satisfaction.It is worthy of promotion in clinical practice.

Further evidence is needed to explore the impact of high-altitude environments on the neurologic function of neonates.Non-invasive techniques such as cerebral near-infrared spectroscopy and amplitude-integrated electroencephalography can provide data on cerebral oxygenation and brain electrical activity.This study will conduct multiple cerebral near-infrared spectroscopy and amplitude-integrated electroencephalography monitoring sessions at various time points within the first 3 days postpartum for healthy full-term neonates at different altitudes.The obtained data on cerebral oxygenation and brain electrical activity will be compared between different altitudes,and corresponding reference ranges will be established.The study involves 6 participating centers in the Chinese High Altitude Neonatal Medicine Alliance,with altitude gradients divided into 4 categories:800 m,1 900 m,2 400 m,and 3 500 m,with an anticipated sample size of 170 neonates per altitude gradient.This multicenter prospective cohort study aims to provide evidence supporting the impact of high-altitude environments on early brain function and metabolism in neonates.[Chinese Journal of Contemporary Pediatrics,2024,26(4):403-409]

Objective: Retrospective analysis of the efficacy and influencing factors of bladder preservation integrated therapy for unresectable invasive bladder cancer confined to the pelvis was done, also including the bladder function preservation and adverse effects analysis. Methods: Sixty-nine patients with unresectable locally invasive bladder cancer who received radiotherapy-based combination therapy from March 1999 to December 2021 at our hospital were selected. Among them, 42 patients received concurrent chemoradiotherapy, 32 underwent neoadjuvant chemotherapyand 43 with transurethral resection of bladder tumors (TURBT) prior to radiotherapy. The late adverse effect of radiotherapy, preservation of bladder function, replase and metastasis and survival were followed-up. Cox proportional hazards models were applied for the multifactorial analysis. Results: The median age was 69 years. There were 63 cases (91.3%) of uroepithelial carcinoma, 64 of stage Ⅲ and 4 of stage Ⅳ. The median duration of follow-up was 76 months. There were 7 grade 2 late genito urinary toxicities, 2 grade 2 gastrointestinal toxicities, no grade 3 or higher adverse events occurred. All patients maintained normal bladder function, except for 8 cases who lost bladder function due to uncontrolled tumor in the bladder. Seventeen cases recurred locally. There were 11 cases in the concurrent chemoradiotherapy group with a local recurrence rate of 26.2% (11/42) and 6 cases in the non-concurrent chemoradiotherapy group with a local recurrence rate of 22.2% (6/27), and the difference in local recurrence rate between the two groups was not statistically significant (P=0.709). There were 23 cases of distant metastasis (including 2 cases of local recurrence with distant metastasis), including 10 cases in the concurrent chemoradiotherapy group with a distant metastasis rate of 23.8% (10/42) and 13 cases in the non-concurrent chemoradiotherapy group with a distant metastasis rate of 48.1% (13/27), and the distant metastasis rate in the non-concurrent chemoradiotherapy group was higher than that in the concurrent chemoradiotherapy group (P=0.036). The median 5-year overall survival (OS) time was 59 months and the OS rate was 47.8%. The 5-year progression-free survival (PFS) time was 20 months and the PFS rate was 34.4%. The 5-year OS rates of concurrent and non-concurrent chemoradiotherapy group were 62.9% and 27.6% (P<0.001), and 5-year PFS rates were 45.4% and 20.0%, respectively (P=0.022). The 5-year OS rates of with or without neoadjuvant chemotherapy were 78.4% and 30.1% (P=0.002), and the 5-year PFS rates were 49.1% and 25.1% (P=0.087), respectively. The 5-year OS rates with or without TURBT before radiotherapy were 45.5% and 51.9% (P=0.233) and the 5-year PFS rates were 30.8% and 39.9% (P=0.198), respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analysis results showed that the clinical stage (HR=0.422, 95% CI: 0.205-0.869) was independent prognostic factor for PFS of invasive bladder cancer. The multivariate analysis showed that clinical stages (HR=0.278, 95% CI: 0.114-0.678), concurrent chemoradiotherapy (HR=0.391, 95% CI: 0.165-0.930), neoadjuvant chemotherapy (HR=0.188, 95% CI: 0.058-0.611), and recurrences (HR=10.855, 95% CI: 3.655-32.638) were independent prognostic factors for OS of invasive bladder cancer. Conclusion: Unresectable localized invasive bladder cancer can achieve satisfactory long-term outcomes with bladder-preserving combination therapy based on radiotherapy, most patients can retain normal bladder function with acceptable late adverse effects and improved survival particularly evident in patients with early, concurrent chemoradiotherapy and neoadjuvant chemotherapy.
Humans ; Aged ; Treatment Outcome ; Retrospective Studies ; Combined Modality Therapy ; Chemoradiotherapy/methods* ; Urinary Bladder Neoplasms/radiotherapy* ; Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols/therapeutic use* ; Neoplasm Staging

Objective To investigate the application value of tenofovir alafenamide fumarate (TAF) in elderly patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and its influence on bones and kidneys. Methods A total of 36 CHB patients, aged ≥60 years, who received TAF antiviral therapy in Qingdao Municipal Hospital, The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao Sixth People's Hospital, Chengyang People's Hospital, and Jimo People's Hospital from June 2021 to October 2022 were enrolled in this study, and all patients received TAF (25 mg/d) antiviral therapy. Related data were collected at baseline and weeks 24 and 48 of treatment, including virological indicators, biochemical parameters, urinary protein electrophoresis indices, transient elastography (FibroScan), and bone mineral density. Virological indicators included high-sensitivity HBV DNA quantification; biochemical parameters included total bilirubin, direct bilirubin (DBil), indirect bilirubin (IBil), alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, alkaline phosphatase, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase, total bile acid (TBA), glucose, blood urea nitrogen, creatinine, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and cystatin C (Cys C); urinary protein electrophoresis indices included urinary β2 microglobulin (β2-MG), urinary retinol (URBP), and urinary α1 microspherin (α1-MG). The paired t -test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data before and after treatment, and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data before and after treatment; the chi-square test or the Fisher's exact test was used for comparison of categorical data. Results A total of 36 CHB patients completed 24 weeks of follow-up. The complete virological response rate after 24 weeks of treatment was higher than that at baseline [83.3% (30/36) vs 77.8% (28/36), χ 2 =0.36, P =0.55], and there were significant reductions in DBil ( t =-2.42, P =0.02) and Cys C ( t =-4.34, P < 0.001) from baseline to week 24. A total of 18 CHB patients completed 48 weeks of follow-up. The complete virological response rate after 48 weeks of treatment was higher than that at baseline (94.4% vs 77.8%, χ 2 =2.22, P =0.34), and there were significant increases in IBil ( t =2.43, P =0.03), TBA ( Z =-2.24, P =0.03), and bone mineral density T score of lumbar vertebra ( t =2.92, P = 0.01) and femoral neck ( t =2.42, P =0.03) and a significant reduction in liver stiffness measurement ( t =-2.31, P =0.03). There were no significant changes in β2-MG, URBP, and α1-MG after treatment (all P > 0.05). Conclusion TAF has a good antiviral effect in CHB patients aged ≥60 years and can help more CHB patients achieve complete virological response, without causing damage to the kidney, and it can also improve bone mineral density and liver fibrosis degree.

Bone defects caused by different causes such as trauma, severe bone infection and other factors are common in clinic and difficult to treat. Usually, bone substitutes are required for repair. Current bone grafting materials used clinically include autologous bones, allogeneic bones, xenografts, and synthetic materials, etc. Other than autologous bones, the major hurdles of rest bone grafts have various degrees of poor biological activity and lack of active ingredients to provide osteogenic impetus. Bone marrow contains various components such as stem cells and bioactive factors, which are contributive to osteogenesis. In response, the technique of bone marrow enrichment, based on the efficient utilization of components within bone marrow, has been risen, aiming to extract osteogenic cells and factors from bone marrow of patients and incorporate them into 3D scaffolds for fabricating bone grafts with high osteoinductivity. However, the scientific guidance and application specification are lacked with regard to the clinical scope, approach, safety and effectiveness. In this context, under the organization of Chinese Orthopedic Association, the Expert consensus for the clinical application of autologous bone marrow enrichment technique for bone repair ( version 2023) is formulated based on the evidence-based medicine. The consensus covers the topics of the characteristics, range of application, safety and application notes of the technique of autologous bone marrow enrichment and proposes corresponding recommendations, hoping to provide better guidance for clinical practice of the technique.

Objective: To analyze the clinical epidemiological characteristics including composition of pathogens , clinical characteristics, and disease prognosis acute bacterial meningitis (ABM) in Chinese children. Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed on the clinical and laboratory data of 1 610 children <15 years of age with ABM in 33 tertiary hospitals in China from January 2019 to December 2020. Patients were divided into different groups according to age,<28 days group, 28 days to <3 months group, 3 months to <1 year group, 1-<5 years of age group, 5-<15 years of age group; etiology confirmed group and clinically diagnosed group according to etiology diagnosis. Non-numeric variables were analyzed with the Chi-square test or Fisher's exact test, while non-normal distrituction numeric variables were compared with nonparametric test. Results: Among 1 610 children with ABM, 955 were male and 650 were female (5 cases were not provided with gender information), and the age of onset was 1.5 (0.5, 5.5) months. There were 588 cases age from <28 days, 462 cases age from 28 days to <3 months, 302 cases age from 3 months to <1 year of age group, 156 cases in the 1-<5 years of age and 101 cases in the 5-<15 years of age. The detection rates were 38.8% (95/245) and 31.5% (70/222) of Escherichia coli and 27.8% (68/245) and 35.1% (78/222) of Streptococcus agalactiae in infants younger than 28 days of age and 28 days to 3 months of age; the detection rates of Streptococcus pneumonia, Escherichia coli, and Streptococcus agalactiae were 34.3% (61/178), 14.0% (25/178) and 13.5% (24/178) in the 3 months of age to <1 year of age group; the dominant pathogens were Streptococcus pneumoniae and the detection rate were 67.9% (74/109) and 44.4% (16/36) in the 1-<5 years of age and 5-<15 years of age . There were 9.7% (19/195) strains of Escherichia coli producing ultra-broad-spectrum β-lactamases. The positive rates of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) culture and blood culture were 32.2% (515/1 598) and 25.0% (400/1 598), while 38.2% (126/330)and 25.3% (21/83) in CSF metagenomics next generation sequencing and Streptococcus pneumoniae antigen detection. There were 4.3% (32/790) cases of which CSF white blood cell counts were normal in etiology confirmed group. Among 1 610 children with ABM, main intracranial imaging complications were subdural effusion and (or) empyema in 349 cases (21.7%), hydrocephalus in 233 cases (14.5%), brain abscess in 178 cases (11.1%), and other cerebrovascular diseases, including encephalomalacia, cerebral infarction, and encephalatrophy, in 174 cases (10.8%). Among the 166 cases (10.3%) with unfavorable outcome, 32 cases (2.0%) died among whom 24 cases died before 1 year of age, and 37 cases (2.3%) had recurrence among whom 25 cases had recurrence within 3 weeks. The incidences of subdural effusion and (or) empyema, brain abscess and ependymitis in the etiology confirmed group were significantly higher than those in the clinically diagnosed group (26.2% (207/790) vs. 17.3% (142/820), 13.0% (103/790) vs. 9.1% (75/820), 4.6% (36/790) vs. 2.7% (22/820), χ²=18.71, 6.20, 4.07, all P<0.05), but there was no significant difference in the unfavorable outcomes, mortility, and recurrence between these 2 groups (all P>0.05). Conclusions: The onset age of ABM in children is usually within 1 year of age, especially <3 months. The common pathogens in infants <3 months of age are Escherichia coli and Streptococcus agalactiae, and the dominant pathogen in infant ≥3 months is Streptococcus pneumoniae. Subdural effusion and (or) empyema and hydrocephalus are common complications. ABM should not be excluded even if CSF white blood cell counts is within normal range. Standardized bacteriological examination should be paid more attention to increase the pathogenic detection rate. Non-culture CSF detection methods may facilitate the pathogenic diagnosis.
Adolescent ; Brain Abscess ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Escherichia coli ; Female ; Humans ; Hydrocephalus ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Male ; Meningitis, Bacterial/epidemiology* ; Retrospective Studies ; Streptococcus agalactiae ; Streptococcus pneumoniae ; Subdural Effusion ; beta-Lactamases

Objective: To explore the safety and effectiveness of stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) for oligometastases from colorectal cancer (CRC). Methods: This is a prospective, single-arm phase Ⅱ trial. Patients who had histologically proven CRC, 1 to 5 detectable liver or lung metastatic lesions with maximum diameter of any metastases ≤5 cm were eligible. SBRT was delivered to all lesions. The primary endpoint was 3-year local control (LC). The secondary endpoints were treatment-related acute toxicities of grade 3 and above, 1-year and 3-year overall survival (OS) and progression free survival (PFS). Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method and Log rank test. Results: Petients from 2016 to 2019 who were treated in Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College. Forty-eight patients with 60 lesions were enrolled, including 37 liver lesions and 23 lung lesions. Forty-six patients had 1 or 2 lesions, with median diameter of 1.3 cm, the median biologically effective dose (BED(10)) was 100.0 Gy. The median follow-up was 19.5 months for all lesions. Twenty-five lesions developed local failure, the median local progression free survival was 15 months. The 1-year LC, OS and PFS was 70.2% (95% CI, 63.7%~76.7%), 89.0% (95% CI, 84.3%~93.7%) and 40.4% (95%CI, 33.0%~47.8%). The univariate analysis revealed that planning target volume (PTV) and total dose were independent prognostic factors of LC (P<0.05). For liver and lung lesions, the 1-year LC, OS and PFS was 58.7% and 89.4% (P=0.015), 89.3% and 86.5% (P=0.732), 30.5% and 65.6% (P=0.024), respectively. No patients developed acute toxicity of grade 3 and above. Conclusion: SBRT is safe and effective treatment method for oligometastases from CRC under precise respiratory motion management and robust quality assurance.
Colorectal Neoplasms ; Humans ; Liver/pathology* ; Lung/pathology* ; Prospective Studies ; Radiosurgery/methods*

Objective: To examine the clinical effect of minimally invasive duodenum preserving pancreatic head resection(DPPHR) for benign and pre-malignant lesions of pancreatic head. Methods: The clinical data of patients with diagnosis of benign or pre-malignant pancreatic head tumor were retrospectively collected and analyzed,all of them underwent laparoscopic or robotic DPPHR between October 2015 and September 2021 at Division of Gastrointestinal and Pancreatic surgery,Zhejiang Provincial People's Hospital. Thirty-three patients were enrolled with 10 males and 23 females. The age(M(IQR)) was 54(32) years old(range: 11 to 77 years old) and the body mass index was 21.9(2.9)kg/m²(range: 18.1 to 30.1 kg/m²). The presenting symptoms included abdominal pain(n=12), Whipple triad(n=2), and asymptomatic(n=19). There were 7 patients with hypertension and 1 patient with diabetes mellitus. There were 19 patients who were diagnosed as American Society of Anesthesiologists class Ⅰ and 14 patients who were diagnosed as class Ⅱ. The student t test,U test, χ² test or Fisher exact test was used to compare continuous data or categorized data,respectively. All the perioperative data and metabolic morbidity were analyzed and experiences on minimally invasive DPPHR were concluded. Results: Fourteen patients underwent laparoscopic DPPHR,while the rest of 19 patients received robotic DPPHR. Indocyanine green fluorescence imaging was used in 19 patients to guide operation. Five patients were performed pancreatico-gastrostomy and the rest 28 patients underwent pancreaticojejunostomy. Pathological outcomes confirmed 9 solid pseudo-papillary neoplasms, 9 intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms, 7 serous cystic neoplasms, 6 pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors, 1 mucous cystic neoplasm, 1 chronic pancreatitis. The operative time was (309.4±50.3) minutes(range:180 to 420 minutes),and the blood loss was (97.9±48.3)ml(range:20 to 200 ml). Eighteen patients suffered from postoperative complications,including 3 patients experienced severe complications(Clavien-Dindo Grade ≥Ⅲ). Pancreatic fistula occurred in 16 patients,including 8 patients with biochemical leak,7 patients with grade B pancreatic fistula and 1 patient with grade C pancreatic fistula. No one suffered from the duodenal necrosis and none perioperative death was occurred. The length of hospital stay was 14(7) days (range:6 to 87 days). The follow-up was 22.6(24.5)months(range:2 to 74 months). None suffered from recurrence or metastasis. During the follow-up,all the patients were free of refractory cholangitis. Moreover,in the term of endocrine dysfunction,no postoperative new onset of diabetes mellitus were observed in the long-term follow-up. However,in the view of exocrine insufficiency,pancreatic exocrine insufficiency and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) was complicated in 2 and 1 patient,respectively,with the supplement of pancreatic enzyme,steatorrhea and weight loss relieved,but NAFLD was awaited to be seen. Conclusions: Minimally invasive DPPHR is feasible and safe for benign or pre-malignant lesions of pancreatic head. Moreover,it is oncological equivalent to pancreaticoduodenectomy with preservation of metabolic function without refractory cholangitis.
Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Child ; Duodenum/surgery* ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Pancreas/surgery* ; Pancreatectomy ; Pancreatic Neoplasms/surgery* ; Pancreaticoduodenectomy ; Postoperative Complications ; Retrospective Studies ; Young Adult