1.Correlation between liver fibrosis degree and carotid plaque in patients with lean metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease
Shuai ZHANG ; Shoulu JIN ; Wanqing LI ; Xijing SHI ; Hao LIANG ; Hao DONG ; Dailong LU ; Ying ZHU ; Xiaoxing XIANG ; Jun LIU
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2026;42(2):319-325
ObjectiveTo investigate the association between noninvasive liver fibrosis markers and carotid plaque (CP) in patients with lean metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD), and to provide a basis for screening high-risk populations. MethodsA total of 957 patients with lean MAFLD who underwent physical examination in Subei People’s Hospital from January 2021 to June 2023 was enrolled as the observation cohort, with the presence or absence of CP as the outcome, and fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score (NFS) were used to assess liver fibrosis degree. The independent-samples t test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between two groups, and the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data between two groups; the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. The multivariate logistic regression analysis, the restricted cubic spline analysis, the receiver operating characteristic curve, and the mediation effect analysis were used to investigate the association between liver fibrosis degree and CP. ResultsThe prevalence rate of CP was 36.6% in the lean MAFLD population. Compared with the non-CP group(n=607), the CP group (n=350) had a significantly higher proportion of male patients, a significantly higher proportion of patients with smoking/diabetes/hypertension, and significantly higher levels of age, creatinine, blood urea nitrogen, triglycerides, fasting blood glucose, aspartate aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ratio, NFS, and FIB-4 index, as well as significantly lower levels of platelet count and albumin (all P<0.05). The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that after adjustment for confounding factors, FIB-4 index (odds ratio[OR]=2.979, 95% confidence interval[CI]:2.141 — 4.219, P<0.001) and NFS (OR=1.747, 95%CI: 1.499 — 2.046, P<0.001) were positively correlated with CP. Both FIB-4 index and NFS had a good value in predicting CP. Hypertension had a significant indirect effect on the prevalence rate of CP through its impact on liver fibrosis markers, and its mediating effect accounted for 39.5% — 40.8% of the total effect (P<0.001). ConclusionIn patients with lean MAFLD, NFS and FIB-4 index are significantly positively correlated with the prevalence rate of CP, and they can be used as potential epidemiological predictive indicators. Liver fibrosis markers may play a mediating role in the association between hypertension and CP. Interventions targeting hypertension and liver fibrosis markers may help to prevent and delay the progression of CP.
2.Rapid Qualitative Analysis Methods and Their Application in Implementation Science
Xuehan WEI ; Xiaoying CHEN ; Runze WANG ; Yingqian ZHANG ; Xuehan LIU ; Jin SUN ; Guoyan YANG ; Wei XIAO ; Chunli LU
Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital 2026;17(2):546-556
Implementation science (IS) aims to systematically analyze and address the real-world gaps from evidence to practice and the influencing factors of the context. It is necessary to carry out qualitative research to gather relevant implementation outcomes. Nevertheless, traditional qualitative analysis has issues such as consuming a great deal of time and energy, and it is unable to promptly provide the crucial data required for implementation science research. The Rapid Qualitative Analysis (RQA) method, through semi-structured interviews and the adoption of techniques such as immediate data condensation and matrix analysis, can effectively shorten the cycle of qualitative data collection and data processing. RQA can promptly identify social determinants of health such as structural barriers, facilitators, and the behavioral characteristics of target groups. It provides a real-time basis for public health decision-making, the interpretation of complex social phenomena, and the process and effectiveness evaluation of research projects. Although RQA is difficult to conduct in-depth theoretical analysis based on grounded theory, its efficiency and flexibility make it the preferred tool for large-scale and time-sensitive research. Thus, it has been widely applied in implementation science research. This paper sorts out the core concepts and commonly used technical methods of RQA, as well as the differences between RQA and traditional qualitative analysis. It also explores the applications of RQA in intervention optimization, process evaluation, and implementation outcome evaluation. By integrating specific cases, this paper clarifies its application value in the field of implementation science. In the future, it is advisable to explore the integration of RQA with technologies such as artificial intelligence and big data, in order to bridge the gap between the transformation of scientific research achievements into practice. Under circumstances of limited resources or tight time constraints, RQA can be used to efficiently conduct implementation science research, providing convenient and scientific methodological and technical support for accelerating evidence-based practice.
3.Association of liver fibrosis markers and inflammation markers with the risk of gallstones in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease
Shuai ZHANG ; Shoulu JIN ; Wanqing LI ; Xijing SHI ; Hao LIANG ; Hao DONG ; Dailong LU ; Ying ZHU ; Xiaoxing XIANG ; Jun LIU
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2026;42(3):579-585
ObjectiveTo investigate the association of liver fibrosis scores and inflammation markers with gallstones in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD), as well as the mediating role of liver fibrosis scores in the relationship between inflammation markers and gallstones. MethodsA total of 14 567 patients who received physical examination and were diagnosed with MAFLD in Subei People’s Hospital from January 2014 to June 2023 were enrolled in this study, and according to the results of abdominal color Doppler ultrasound, they were divided into gallstone group with 1 724 patients and non-gallstone group with 12 843 patients. Related clinical data were collected from all patients, including demographic data, medical history, family history, physical examination, Color Doppler ultrasound, and biochemical parameters. The biomarkers associated with metabolic disorders and insulin resistance included triglyceride-glucose index (TyG), TyG-body mass index (BMI) index, atherogenic index of plasma (AIP), and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol-to-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (NHHR); the biomarkers associated with inflammation and nutritional status included neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), neutrophil percentage-to-albumin ratio (NPAR), and monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR); the biomarkers for assessing liver fibrosis degree and liver function included albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score, NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, and aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI). The independent-samples t test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between two groups, while the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data between two groups; the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis, restricted cubic spline analysis, and mediating effect analysis were used to assess the association of liver fibrosis markers and inflammation markers with the risk of gallstones. ResultsThe prevalence rate of gallstones was 11.8% among the MAFLD patients. There were significant differences between the gallstone group and the non-gallstone group in sex, age, smoking history, diabetes, hypertension, lymphocytes, platelets, glucose, albumin, serum uric acid, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, red blood cell, NLR, NPAR, MLR, NFS, FIB-4 index, and ALBI score (all P<0.05). The multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that NLR (odds ratio [OR]=1.091, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.028 — 1.160, P<0.05), NPAR (OR=1.073, 95%CI: 1.042 — 1.105, P<0.05), MLR (OR=1.142, 95%CI: 1.057 — 1.232, P<0.05), NFS (OR=1.239, 95%CI: 1.190 — 1.291, P<0.05), and FIB-4 index (OR=1.326, 95%CI: 1.241 — 1.417, P<0.05) were influencing factors for the prevalence rate of gallstones. The restricted cubic spline analysis showed a significant non-linear association between NFS/FIB-4 index and the risk of gallstone (non-linear P<0.05). The mediating effect analysis further showed that the association of NLR, MLR, and NPAR with gallstones was partially mediated by NFS or FIB-4 index, with a mediating effect accounting for 36.79%、28.09%、29.67% and 18.31%、17.70、11.57%, respectively. ConclusionNFS and FIB-4 index have a non-linear association with the prevalence rate of gallstones in MAFLD patients, and they also mediate the association of NLR, NPAR, and MLR with the risk of gallstone.
4.Challenges and Recommendations for Implementing Key Technologies in Decentralized Clinical Trials of Traditional Chinese Medicine
Runze WANG ; Xuehan WEI ; Xiaoying CHEN ; Yingqian ZHANG ; Jin SUN ; Chunli LU
Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2026;67(9):926-934
Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) clinical trials face challenges such as low participant compliance, insufficient geographical coverage, and cost-effectiveness imbalances. Decentralized clinical trials (DCT), enabled by digital technology for remote data collection and monitoring, offer a new direction for TCM clinical trial research. This article systematically reviews three novel clinical trial design models. Combining the holistic concept and indivi-dualized treatment characteristics of TCM, it analyzes the challenges currently faced in TCM DCT practice, including the digitization and standardization of TCM theory, data security, privacy protection and patient engagement difficu-lties, insufficient ethical review and regulatory system adaptation, inadequate personnel training, and a shortage of interdisciplinary talent. Addressing these challenges, the article proposes methodological recommendations for DCT implementation that align with the principles of TCM diagnosis and treatment. These recommendations include promoting the intelligentization and standardization of TCM practices, constructing a full-chain data security and privacy protection system, improving the ethical framework and clarifying regulatory responsibilities, and cultivating and building interdisciplinary talent and capabilities, which provide theoretical and technical references for establishing standardized DCT practices in TCM.
5.Challenges and Recommendations for Implementing Key Technologies in Decentralized Clinical Trials of Traditional Chinese Medicine
Runze WANG ; Xuehan WEI ; Xiaoying CHEN ; Yingqian ZHANG ; Jin SUN ; Chunli LU
Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2026;67(9):926-934
Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) clinical trials face challenges such as low participant compliance, insufficient geographical coverage, and cost-effectiveness imbalances. Decentralized clinical trials (DCT), enabled by digital technology for remote data collection and monitoring, offer a new direction for TCM clinical trial research. This article systematically reviews three novel clinical trial design models. Combining the holistic concept and indivi-dualized treatment characteristics of TCM, it analyzes the challenges currently faced in TCM DCT practice, including the digitization and standardization of TCM theory, data security, privacy protection and patient engagement difficu-lties, insufficient ethical review and regulatory system adaptation, inadequate personnel training, and a shortage of interdisciplinary talent. Addressing these challenges, the article proposes methodological recommendations for DCT implementation that align with the principles of TCM diagnosis and treatment. These recommendations include promoting the intelligentization and standardization of TCM practices, constructing a full-chain data security and privacy protection system, improving the ethical framework and clarifying regulatory responsibilities, and cultivating and building interdisciplinary talent and capabilities, which provide theoretical and technical references for establishing standardized DCT practices in TCM.
6.Neuroprotective Effects of Transcranial Magneto-acoustic Stimulation on Parkinson’s Disease Model Mice by Regulating Mitophagy and Mitochondrial Homeostasis
Shuai ZHANG ; Yan-Bin WANG ; Yi-Hao XU ; Jin-Rui MI ; Xiao-Chao LU ; Yu-Chen AN ; Ji-Zhou LIU ; Jia-Qi SUN
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2026;53(5):1457-1470
ObjectiveTranscranial magneto-acoustic stimulation (TMAS) is an emerging non-invasive neuromodulation technique that may provide a novel non-pharmacological intervention strategy for Parkinson's disease (PD). PD is characterized by the progressive degeneration of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra pars compacta (SNc), leading to motor impairments such as bradykinesia, tremor, and rigidity. Increasing evidence indicates that mitochondrial dysfunction and impaired mitochondrial quality control are central mechanisms underlying dopaminergic neuronal loss. In particular, abnormalities in mitophagy and mitochondrial fission-fusion balance contribute substantially to oxidative stress, energy metabolic failure, and neuronal injury. At present, most clinical treatments for PD mainly alleviate symptoms but do not effectively halt disease progression. Therefore, exploring new interventions targeting the core pathological mechanisms is of considerable significance. This study aims to investigate whether TMAS can improve neural damage and motor dysfunction in PD mice by regulating mitophagy and the fission/fusion dynamic balance, thereby providing theoretical and experimental support for its application in PD treatment. MethodsMale C57BL/6 mice were used in this study. A PD model was established by intraperitoneal injection of 1-methyl-4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine (MPTP) for 7 consecutive days. After model induction, mice in the intervention group received TMAS once daily for 14 consecutive days, whereas the corresponding control group received sham stimulation. The stimulation target was positioned over the primary motor cortex (M1). Motor performance was evaluated using the pole test and the open-field test. To verify the activation effect of TMAS on the target cortical region, c-Fos immunohistochemistry was performed in the M1. To assess nigral dopaminergic neuronal injury, tyrosine hydroxylase (TH) immunohistochemistry was used to quantify TH-positive neurons in the SNc. Mitochondrial function was evaluated by measuring reactive oxygen species (ROS) levels and adenosine triphosphate (ATP) content in the SNc. Western blot was further performed to determine the expression of mitophagy-related proteins, including PINK1, Parkin, LC3-II, and p62, as well as mitochondrial dynamics-related proteins, including Drp1 and Opa1. ResultsTMAS significantly increased the number of c-Fos-positive cells in M1 (P<0.000 1), indicating effective activation of neurons in the targeted cortical region. Compared with the control group, MPTP-treated mice exhibited marked motor dysfunction, including a significant reduction in total distance traveled in the open-field test (P<0.000 1) and mean speed (P=0.000 1), as well as significant prolongation of turn time and total climbing time in the pole test (P<0.000 1). These behavioral impairments were accompanied by a substantial loss of TH-positive dopaminergic neurons in the SNc, whereas TMAS significantly increased TH-positive neuron survival (P<0.000 1). In parallel, MPTP induced a pronounced increase in ROS levels and a significant reduction in ATP content, indicating severe mitochondrial dysfunction and energy metabolism impairment (P<0.01). TMAS treatment significantly improved motor performance, as reflected by the reversal of MPTP-induced impairment in the open-field and pole tests, and significantly reduced ROS accumulation (P<0.01) while restoring ATP production (P<0.001). At the molecular level, MPTP markedly downregulated PINK1 and Parkin, decreased p62 expression, increased LC3-II accumulation, elevated Drp1 expression, and reduced Opa1 expression, whereas TMAS significantly reversed these abnormalities, suggesting restoration of mitophagy-related mitochondrial quality control and re-establishment of mitochondrial fission-fusion balance. Collectively, these findings indicate that TMAS ameliorates MPTP-induced neurotoxicity and restores mitochondrial homeostasis and energy metabolism. ConclusionTMAS effectively attenuates neural damage and improves motor dysfunction in MPTP-induced PD mice. Its neuroprotective effects are closely associated with multidimensional regulation of the mitochondrial quality control system, including restoration of PINK1/Parkin-mediated mitophagy and rebalancing of Drp1/Opa1-related mitochondrial dynamics. Rather than acting only as a symptomatic neuromodulatory intervention, TMAS may influence a key pathological axis of PD by improving mitochondrial homeostasis in SNc and protecting nigral dopaminergic neurons. These findings provide experimental evidence supporting TMAS as a promising non-invasive physical intervention for PD.
7.Neuroprotective Effects of Transcranial Magneto-acoustic Stimulation on Parkinson’s Disease Model Mice by Regulating Mitophagy and Mitochondrial Homeostasis
Shuai ZHANG ; Yan-Bin WANG ; Yi-Hao XU ; Jin-Rui MI ; Xiao-Chao LU ; Yu-Chen AN ; Ji-Zhou LIU ; Jia-Qi SUN
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2026;53(5):1457-1470
ObjectiveTranscranial magneto-acoustic stimulation (TMAS) is an emerging non-invasive neuromodulation technique that may provide a novel non-pharmacological intervention strategy for Parkinson's disease (PD). PD is characterized by the progressive degeneration of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra pars compacta (SNc), leading to motor impairments such as bradykinesia, tremor, and rigidity. Increasing evidence indicates that mitochondrial dysfunction and impaired mitochondrial quality control are central mechanisms underlying dopaminergic neuronal loss. In particular, abnormalities in mitophagy and mitochondrial fission-fusion balance contribute substantially to oxidative stress, energy metabolic failure, and neuronal injury. At present, most clinical treatments for PD mainly alleviate symptoms but do not effectively halt disease progression. Therefore, exploring new interventions targeting the core pathological mechanisms is of considerable significance. This study aims to investigate whether TMAS can improve neural damage and motor dysfunction in PD mice by regulating mitophagy and the fission/fusion dynamic balance, thereby providing theoretical and experimental support for its application in PD treatment. MethodsMale C57BL/6 mice were used in this study. A PD model was established by intraperitoneal injection of 1-methyl-4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine (MPTP) for 7 consecutive days. After model induction, mice in the intervention group received TMAS once daily for 14 consecutive days, whereas the corresponding control group received sham stimulation. The stimulation target was positioned over the primary motor cortex (M1). Motor performance was evaluated using the pole test and the open-field test. To verify the activation effect of TMAS on the target cortical region, c-Fos immunohistochemistry was performed in the M1. To assess nigral dopaminergic neuronal injury, tyrosine hydroxylase (TH) immunohistochemistry was used to quantify TH-positive neurons in the SNc. Mitochondrial function was evaluated by measuring reactive oxygen species (ROS) levels and adenosine triphosphate (ATP) content in the SNc. Western blot was further performed to determine the expression of mitophagy-related proteins, including PINK1, Parkin, LC3-II, and p62, as well as mitochondrial dynamics-related proteins, including Drp1 and Opa1. ResultsTMAS significantly increased the number of c-Fos-positive cells in M1 (P<0.000 1), indicating effective activation of neurons in the targeted cortical region. Compared with the control group, MPTP-treated mice exhibited marked motor dysfunction, including a significant reduction in total distance traveled in the open-field test (P<0.000 1) and mean speed (P=0.000 1), as well as significant prolongation of turn time and total climbing time in the pole test (P<0.000 1). These behavioral impairments were accompanied by a substantial loss of TH-positive dopaminergic neurons in the SNc, whereas TMAS significantly increased TH-positive neuron survival (P<0.000 1). In parallel, MPTP induced a pronounced increase in ROS levels and a significant reduction in ATP content, indicating severe mitochondrial dysfunction and energy metabolism impairment (P<0.01). TMAS treatment significantly improved motor performance, as reflected by the reversal of MPTP-induced impairment in the open-field and pole tests, and significantly reduced ROS accumulation (P<0.01) while restoring ATP production (P<0.001). At the molecular level, MPTP markedly downregulated PINK1 and Parkin, decreased p62 expression, increased LC3-II accumulation, elevated Drp1 expression, and reduced Opa1 expression, whereas TMAS significantly reversed these abnormalities, suggesting restoration of mitophagy-related mitochondrial quality control and re-establishment of mitochondrial fission-fusion balance. Collectively, these findings indicate that TMAS ameliorates MPTP-induced neurotoxicity and restores mitochondrial homeostasis and energy metabolism. ConclusionTMAS effectively attenuates neural damage and improves motor dysfunction in MPTP-induced PD mice. Its neuroprotective effects are closely associated with multidimensional regulation of the mitochondrial quality control system, including restoration of PINK1/Parkin-mediated mitophagy and rebalancing of Drp1/Opa1-related mitochondrial dynamics. Rather than acting only as a symptomatic neuromodulatory intervention, TMAS may influence a key pathological axis of PD by improving mitochondrial homeostasis in SNc and protecting nigral dopaminergic neurons. These findings provide experimental evidence supporting TMAS as a promising non-invasive physical intervention for PD.
8.Prediction of gastric cancer T staging using oral contrast-enhanced ultrasonography combined with contrast-enhanced CT
Aiqing LU ; Fei QIU ; Xin DONG ; Xiaoyan LI ; Xiuyun SUN ; Xuefeng LI ; Zhaoxin JIN ; Xiankai WANG ; Yong ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Radiological Health 2025;34(3):368-372
Objective To explore the value of oral contrast-enhanced ultrasonography (OCEUS) combined with contrast-enhanced CT in predicting preoperative T staging in patients with gastric cancer. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on 80 patients with gastric cancer confirmed via endoscopic biopsy or postoperative pathology at the First People’s Hospital of Jining from January 2021 to November 2024. The cohort included 56 males and 24 females, aged 38-79 years, with a median age of 55.9 years. All patients underwent both OCEUS and contrast-enhanced CT within one week prior to surgery. T staging of gastric cancer was determined using OCEUS, contrast-enhanced CT, or their combination. The results were compared with pathological T staging, and statistical differences in accuracy were analyzed. Results Pathological T staging identified T1 in 9 cases, T2 in 16 cases, T3 in 42 cases, and T4 in 13 cases. OCEUS indicated T1 in 6 cases, T2 in 14 cases, T3 in 50 cases, and T4 in 10 cases, with an accuracy rate of 80.0%. Contrast-enhanced CT indicated T1 in 4 cases, T2 in 12 cases, T3 in 52 cases, and T4 in 12 cases, with an accuracy rate of 75.0%. The combination of OCEUS and contrast-enhanced CT indicated T1 in 6 cases, T2 in 15 cases, T3 in 47 cases, and T4 in 12 cases, with an accuracy rate of 87.5%. The combined approach demonstrated significantly higher accuracy in preoperative T staging compared to either method alone (P < 0.05). Conclusion The combination of OCEUS and contrast-enhanced CT improves the accuracy of preoperative T staging in gastric cancer patients, providing valuable support for their diagnosis and treatment.
9.Acupoint thread-embedding therapy of regulating governor vessel, dispersing lung, and suppressing reflux for gastroesophageal reflux cough: a randomized controlled trial.
Mingjie TANG ; Wen LU ; Xiaoni ZHANG ; Jiawei GAO ; Xinchang WEI ; Jin LU ; Jia ZHU ; Yulu FENG ; Lejing JIAO ; Xiaofang XIA ; Zhi ZHOU ; Zhaoming CHEN
Chinese Acupuncture & Moxibustion 2025;45(8):1047-1052
OBJECTIVE:
To observe the clinical efficacy of acupoint thread-embedding therapy of regulating governor vessel, dispersing lung, and suppressing reflux for gastroesophageal reflux cough (GERC).
METHODS:
A total of 120 GERC patients were randomly assigned to an observation group (60 cases, 1 case dropped out) and a control group (60 cases, 1 case was eliminated). The observation group received acupoint thread-embedding treatment at positive response points of governor vessel. If no such points were detected, the following acupoints were used: Dazhui (GV14), Fenghu (Extra), Shendao (GV11), Lingtai (GV10), and Zhiyang (GV9). Treatment was administered once every two weeks. The control group received oral rabeprazole enteric capsules at 20 mg twice daily. All the treatment was given for 6 weeks. Clinical outcomes were assessed using cough symptom score, reflux disease questionnaire (RDQ) score, and Leicester cough questionnaire (LCQ) score before and after treatment in the two groups. Clinical efficacy was also compared between the two groups.
RESULTS:
After treatment, both groups showed decreased cough symptom scores and the each item scores and total scores of RDQ (P<0.001), and increased LCQ scores (P<0.001) compare with those before treatment. The observation group exhibited lower cough symptom score and chest pain, reflux and total score of RDQ, and higher LCQ score compared to those in the control group (P<0.05). The total effective rate in the observation group was 94.9% (56/59), which was higher than 84.7% (50/59) in the control group (P<0.05).
CONCLUSION
Acupoint thread-embedding therapy of regulating governor vessel, dispersing lung, and suppressing reflux could effectively alleviate cough and reflux symptoms in patients with GERC and improve their quality of life.
Humans
;
Acupuncture Points
;
Gastroesophageal Reflux/physiopathology*
;
Male
;
Female
;
Cough/physiopathology*
;
Middle Aged
;
Aged
;
Acupuncture Therapy
;
Adult
;
Treatment Outcome
;
Lung/physiopathology*
;
Meridians
10.Application of ARIMA in prediction of prevalence trend of carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae in ICU
Shifan JIANG ; Yingjie ZHANG ; Juan LU ; Jin CHENG ; Cejie LAN ; Xing WU
Chinese Journal of Nosocomiology 2025;35(6):933-938
OBJECTIVE To explore the application of autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA)in prediction of prevalence trends of carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae(CRKP)in intensive care unit(ICU)so as to provide scientific bases for formulating prevention strategies for CRKP infection in ICU.METHODS The number of CRKP strains that were monthly isolated from the ICU patients of Jiangnan University Affiliated Hospital between Jan.2021 and Jan.2024 was collected,the duplicate samples from the same patient were excluded,and totally 555 strains of CRKP were finally enrolled in the study.The time series differencing was performed by using R statistical software,the ARIMA model was established,the parameters of the model were determined by means of autocorrelation function(ACF)and partial autocorrelation function(PACF)images.The optimal model was screened out by Akaike information criterion(AIC)and root-mean-square error(RMSD),the robustness of the residual sequences was assessed by Box-Ljung test.The data that were detected from Sep.2023 to Jan.2024 were assigned as the validation set,the prediction accuracy of the model was assessed,and the dy-namic trend of the CRKP strains from Feb.2024 to Apr.2024 was predicted.RESULTS The isolation rate of CRKP strains in ICU showed dynamic change from 2021 to 2023(x2=66.906,P=0.001),sputum and midstream urine were the major sources.The minimal AIC of the optimal ARIMA model(8,1,10)was 222.1,with RMSE 3.67.Box-Ljung(x2=0.104,P=0.746)test indicated that there was no autocorrelation among the residual se-quences.Both the actual CRKP and the predictive value firstly rose then descended from Sep.2023 to Jan.2024,and the average relative error of the model was 9.62%for prediction.The number of isolated CRKP strains predic-ted by the model might reached to the lowest point in Feb.2024 and then showed an upward trend,and it might reach to a high peak in Apr.CONCLUSION ARIMA model is effective for short-term prediction and dynamic anal-ysis of prevalence trend of CRKP strains in the ICU so as to provide theoretical basis for early warning of hospital-associated infection and take corresponding prevention measures.

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