1.Impact of postoperative complications on adverse outcomes following curative-intent resection for gallbladder cancer: a national multicenter real-world study
Zhipeng LIU ; Cheng CHEN ; Jie BAI ; Yan JIANG ; Dong ZHANG ; Wei GUO ; Zhixin WANG ; Xiang LAN ; Yufu YE ; Zhaoping WU ; Jinxue ZHOU ; Shuo JIN ; Yi ZHU ; Wei CHEN ; Dalong YIN ; Yao CHENG ; Haisu DAI ; Lei ZHANG ; Zhiyu CHEN
Chinese Journal of Digestive Surgery 2025;24(7):874-881
Objective:To investigate the impact of postoperative complications on adverse outcomes following curative-intent resection for gallbladder cancer (GBC).Methods:The multi-center real-world study was conducted. The clinicopathological data of 629 patients with GBC, who were admitted to 14 medical centers including The First Affiliated Hospital of Army Medical University from the national multicenter database of Biliary Surgery Group of Elite Group of Chinese Journal of Digestive Surgery, from April 2020 to April 2024 were collected. There were 225 males and 404 females, aged (64±10)years. Patients underwent open curative-intent resection for GBC. Observation indicators: (1)surgery, postoperative complica-tions and adverse outcomes; (2) analysis of risk factors affecting postoperative adverse outcomes in patients and population attributable fraction (PAF). Missing data in predictor variables were addressed using multiple imputation with chained equations, while cases with missing outcome variables were addressed using the "multiple imputation then deletion (MID)" strategy. The severity of multicollinearity among independent variables was assessed using the variance inflation factor (VIF) test. Multivariable possion regression models with log link and robust error variance were construc-ted incorporating restricted cubic splines (3 knots) to address nonlinear relationships in continuous variables, calculating adjusted relative risk ( RR) with corresponding 95% confidence interval ( CI). Adjusted PAF was calculated for each imputed dataset using the AF package of R software, with subsequent pooling performed according to Rubin's rules. Results:(1) Surgery, postoperative complications and adverse outcomes. All 629 patients underwent curative-intent resection for GBC, of which 143 cases had postoperative complications, including 68 cases of intra-abdominal ascites, 39 cases of pulmonary infection, 21 cases of bile leakage, 12 cases of intra-abdominal hemorrhage, 11 cases of liver failure, 10 cases of pan-creatic fistula, 10 cases of wound infection, 10 cases of gastroparesis, 7 cases of cholangitis, 7 cases of sepsis. The same patient could have more than one kind of complication. Of 629 patients, there were 19 cases of postoperative 90-day death and 11 cases of missing data, 42 cases with post-operative 90-day reoperation and 7 cases with missing data, 44 cases with postoperative 90-day readmission and 3 cases with missing data, 155 cases with prolonged postoperative hospital stay and 3 cases with missing data. (2) Analysis of risk factors affecting the postoperative adverse outcomes in patients and PAF. Results of multivariate analysis showed that pulmonary infection and liver failure were independent risk factors for postoperative 90-day mortality ( RR=3.74, 12.15, 95% CI as 1.18-11.83, 1.98-74.48, P<0.05). Pulmonary infection demons-trated the highest PAF as 4.61% (95% CI as 3.94%-5.28%, P<0.05). Intra-abdominal ascites, pulmonary infection, bile leakage, and intra-abdominal hemorrhage were independent risk factors for post-operative 90-day reoperation ( RR=4.80, 3.62, 3.46, 4.99, 95% CI as 2.49-9.26, 1.42-9.21, 1.34-8.92, 1.55-16.06, P<0.05). Intra-abdominal ascites demonstrated the highest PAF as 8.65% (95% CI as 8.22%-9.08%, P<0.05). Intra-abdominal ascites, bile leakage, and liver failure were independent risk factors for postoperative 90-day readmission ( RR=6.20, 3.33, 14.33, 95% CI as 3.21-11.95, 1.33-8.35, 3.72-55.28, P<0.05). Intra-abdominal ascites demonstrated the highest PAF as 9.11% (95% CI as 8.85%-9.37%, P<0.05). Intra-abdominal ascites, pulmonary infection, bile leakage, liver failure, and wound infection were independent risk factors for prolonged postoperative hospital stay ( RR=2.29, 2.21, 2.26, 2.14, 3.35, 95% CI as 1.63-3.23, 1.41-3.46, 1.32-3.86, 1.11-4.13, 1.70-6.60, P<0.05). Intra-abdominal ascites demonstrated the highest PAF as 6.03% (95% CI as 5.71%-6.35%, P<0.05). Conclusion:Pulmonary infection is the most significant risk factor for postoperative 90-day mortality after curative-intent resection for GBC, while intra-abdominal ascites is the most significant risk factor for postoperative 90-day reoperation, postoperative 90-day readmission, and prolonged postoperative hospital stay.
2.Application of ARIMA in prediction of prevalence trend of carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae in ICU
Shifan JIANG ; Yingjie ZHANG ; Juan LU ; Jin CHENG ; Cejie LAN ; Xing WU
Chinese Journal of Nosocomiology 2025;35(6):933-938
OBJECTIVE To explore the application of autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA)in prediction of prevalence trends of carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae(CRKP)in intensive care unit(ICU)so as to provide scientific bases for formulating prevention strategies for CRKP infection in ICU.METHODS The number of CRKP strains that were monthly isolated from the ICU patients of Jiangnan University Affiliated Hospital between Jan.2021 and Jan.2024 was collected,the duplicate samples from the same patient were excluded,and totally 555 strains of CRKP were finally enrolled in the study.The time series differencing was performed by using R statistical software,the ARIMA model was established,the parameters of the model were determined by means of autocorrelation function(ACF)and partial autocorrelation function(PACF)images.The optimal model was screened out by Akaike information criterion(AIC)and root-mean-square error(RMSD),the robustness of the residual sequences was assessed by Box-Ljung test.The data that were detected from Sep.2023 to Jan.2024 were assigned as the validation set,the prediction accuracy of the model was assessed,and the dy-namic trend of the CRKP strains from Feb.2024 to Apr.2024 was predicted.RESULTS The isolation rate of CRKP strains in ICU showed dynamic change from 2021 to 2023(x2=66.906,P=0.001),sputum and midstream urine were the major sources.The minimal AIC of the optimal ARIMA model(8,1,10)was 222.1,with RMSE 3.67.Box-Ljung(x2=0.104,P=0.746)test indicated that there was no autocorrelation among the residual se-quences.Both the actual CRKP and the predictive value firstly rose then descended from Sep.2023 to Jan.2024,and the average relative error of the model was 9.62%for prediction.The number of isolated CRKP strains predic-ted by the model might reached to the lowest point in Feb.2024 and then showed an upward trend,and it might reach to a high peak in Apr.CONCLUSION ARIMA model is effective for short-term prediction and dynamic anal-ysis of prevalence trend of CRKP strains in the ICU so as to provide theoretical basis for early warning of hospital-associated infection and take corresponding prevention measures.
3.Construction and application of an early in-hospital temperature management protocol for patients with heat stroke
Lan CHEN ; Huimin MA ; Yuan FANG ; Huan ZHANG ; Jingnan REN ; Liyun LU ; Xiangliang WU ; Chang LIU ; Dingping JIN ; Xiuqin FENG
Chinese Journal of Nursing 2025;60(5):561-568
Objective This study aims to develop an early in-hospital temperature management protocol for heat stroke patients and assess its effectiveness,providing guidance for rapid cooling and precise target temperature control.Methods The protocol was developed through a Delphi expert consultation combined with expert panel meetings.A multi-center,non-randomized,historical control study was conducted,utilizing convenience sampling to select heat stroke patients from the emergency departments of 7 tertiary hospitals in Zhejiang Province,China,between June and August 2024 as an experimental group.The protocol was implemented in this group,while the control group consisted of heat stroke patients treated between June and August 2022,prior to protocol implementation.Cooling rates,target temperature attainment rates,and clinical outcomes were compared between the 2 groups.Results The final protocol included 6 primary indicators,23 secondary indicators,and 56 tertiary indicators.After protocol implementation,the experimental group achieved a cooling rate of 0.08(0.05~0.09)℃/min within 0.5 hours,significantly higher than the control group,which had a rate of 0.04(0.02~0.06)℃/min(P<0.001).The target temperature attainment rates at 0.5 hours and 2.0 hours were 55.93%and 98.31%,respectively,significantly higher than the rates of 15.87%and 61.11%in the control group(P<0.001).The mechanical ventilation rate,hospitalization rate,ICU admission rate,and mortality rate in the experimental group were 25.42%,61.02%,44.07%,and 8.47%,respectively.Logistic regression analysis revealed that the early in-hospital temperature management protocol significantly reduced the risk of mechanical ventilation and hospitalization in heat stroke patients,with odds ratios(ORs)of 0.294 and 0.300,respectively(both P<0.05).Conclusion The developed protocol for early in-hospital temperature management in heat stroke patients is scientific,systematic,and practical.It improves cooling rates and target temperature attainment,thereby enhancing the prognosis of heat stroke patients.
4.Impact of postoperative complications on adverse outcomes following curative-intent resection for gallbladder cancer: a national multicenter real-world study
Zhipeng LIU ; Cheng CHEN ; Jie BAI ; Yan JIANG ; Dong ZHANG ; Wei GUO ; Zhixin WANG ; Xiang LAN ; Yufu YE ; Zhaoping WU ; Jinxue ZHOU ; Shuo JIN ; Yi ZHU ; Wei CHEN ; Dalong YIN ; Yao CHENG ; Haisu DAI ; Lei ZHANG ; Zhiyu CHEN
Chinese Journal of Digestive Surgery 2025;24(7):874-881
Objective:To investigate the impact of postoperative complications on adverse outcomes following curative-intent resection for gallbladder cancer (GBC).Methods:The multi-center real-world study was conducted. The clinicopathological data of 629 patients with GBC, who were admitted to 14 medical centers including The First Affiliated Hospital of Army Medical University from the national multicenter database of Biliary Surgery Group of Elite Group of Chinese Journal of Digestive Surgery, from April 2020 to April 2024 were collected. There were 225 males and 404 females, aged (64±10)years. Patients underwent open curative-intent resection for GBC. Observation indicators: (1)surgery, postoperative complica-tions and adverse outcomes; (2) analysis of risk factors affecting postoperative adverse outcomes in patients and population attributable fraction (PAF). Missing data in predictor variables were addressed using multiple imputation with chained equations, while cases with missing outcome variables were addressed using the "multiple imputation then deletion (MID)" strategy. The severity of multicollinearity among independent variables was assessed using the variance inflation factor (VIF) test. Multivariable possion regression models with log link and robust error variance were construc-ted incorporating restricted cubic splines (3 knots) to address nonlinear relationships in continuous variables, calculating adjusted relative risk ( RR) with corresponding 95% confidence interval ( CI). Adjusted PAF was calculated for each imputed dataset using the AF package of R software, with subsequent pooling performed according to Rubin's rules. Results:(1) Surgery, postoperative complications and adverse outcomes. All 629 patients underwent curative-intent resection for GBC, of which 143 cases had postoperative complications, including 68 cases of intra-abdominal ascites, 39 cases of pulmonary infection, 21 cases of bile leakage, 12 cases of intra-abdominal hemorrhage, 11 cases of liver failure, 10 cases of pan-creatic fistula, 10 cases of wound infection, 10 cases of gastroparesis, 7 cases of cholangitis, 7 cases of sepsis. The same patient could have more than one kind of complication. Of 629 patients, there were 19 cases of postoperative 90-day death and 11 cases of missing data, 42 cases with post-operative 90-day reoperation and 7 cases with missing data, 44 cases with postoperative 90-day readmission and 3 cases with missing data, 155 cases with prolonged postoperative hospital stay and 3 cases with missing data. (2) Analysis of risk factors affecting the postoperative adverse outcomes in patients and PAF. Results of multivariate analysis showed that pulmonary infection and liver failure were independent risk factors for postoperative 90-day mortality ( RR=3.74, 12.15, 95% CI as 1.18-11.83, 1.98-74.48, P<0.05). Pulmonary infection demons-trated the highest PAF as 4.61% (95% CI as 3.94%-5.28%, P<0.05). Intra-abdominal ascites, pulmonary infection, bile leakage, and intra-abdominal hemorrhage were independent risk factors for post-operative 90-day reoperation ( RR=4.80, 3.62, 3.46, 4.99, 95% CI as 2.49-9.26, 1.42-9.21, 1.34-8.92, 1.55-16.06, P<0.05). Intra-abdominal ascites demonstrated the highest PAF as 8.65% (95% CI as 8.22%-9.08%, P<0.05). Intra-abdominal ascites, bile leakage, and liver failure were independent risk factors for postoperative 90-day readmission ( RR=6.20, 3.33, 14.33, 95% CI as 3.21-11.95, 1.33-8.35, 3.72-55.28, P<0.05). Intra-abdominal ascites demonstrated the highest PAF as 9.11% (95% CI as 8.85%-9.37%, P<0.05). Intra-abdominal ascites, pulmonary infection, bile leakage, liver failure, and wound infection were independent risk factors for prolonged postoperative hospital stay ( RR=2.29, 2.21, 2.26, 2.14, 3.35, 95% CI as 1.63-3.23, 1.41-3.46, 1.32-3.86, 1.11-4.13, 1.70-6.60, P<0.05). Intra-abdominal ascites demonstrated the highest PAF as 6.03% (95% CI as 5.71%-6.35%, P<0.05). Conclusion:Pulmonary infection is the most significant risk factor for postoperative 90-day mortality after curative-intent resection for GBC, while intra-abdominal ascites is the most significant risk factor for postoperative 90-day reoperation, postoperative 90-day readmission, and prolonged postoperative hospital stay.
5.ESTABLISHMENT AND APPLICATION OF A MULTIPLEX PCR DETECTION METHOD FOR THREE COMMON PATHOGENS CAUSING DIARRHEA IN YAKS
Yao PAN ; Jing ZHANG ; Mei-Jun JIN ; Ling-Xiang XIN ; Hai-Yue XIAO ; Yan LIU ; Wen-Sheng YAO ; Chuan CHENG ; Li-Li HAO ; Lan LAN ; Liang-Quan ZHU
Acta Parasitologica et Medica Entomologica Sinica 2025;32(3):146-152
Objective To establish a rapid,sensitive,and specific multiplex PCR detection method for the simultaneous detection of Cryptosporidium,Eimeria,and bovine parvovirus.Methods Specific primers targeting the SSU rRNA genes of Cryptosporidium and Eimeria,as well as the VP2 gene of bovine parvovirus were designed and the corresponding recombinant plasmid standards were constructed.To establish the multiplex PCR method,the reaction conditions were optimized using temperature gradient PCR and single-variable control methods.The sensitivity,specificity,reproducibility,and clinical application of the protocol were evaluated.Results The optimal annealing temperature was found to be 60.5℃,and the forward and reverse primer concentrations were determined to be 0.2 μmol/L for Eimeria,and 0.4 μmol/L for Cryptosporidium and bovine parvovirus.The assay demonstrated high sensitivity,with detection limits of 243,260,and 3 110 copies for the recombinant plasmid standards of Cryptosporidium,Eimeria,and bovine parvovirus,respectively.Specificity testing showed no cross-reactivity with ten common bovine pathogens,including Salmonella,bovine viral diarrhea virus,and bovine rotavirus.Consistent intra-and inter-batch results confirmed the strong reproducibility of the method.Clinical application to 81 diarrhea samples from various regions in the Ganzi Prefecture,Sichuan,revealed positivity rates of 18.52%(15/81)for Cryptosporidium,34.57%(28/81)for Eimeria,and 18.52%(15/81)forbovineparvovirus,withamixedinfectionrateof3.7%(3/81).Conclusions Themultiplex PCR method established in this study offers a reliable tool for differential diagnosis and epidemiological investigation of the three common diarrheal pathogens in yaks.
6.Impact of early invasive blood pressure monitoring on outcomes in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients undergoing extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation
Xiaodong SONG ; Mingjun HUANG ; Jun LI ; Hang GUO ; Yao LUO ; Jin TAO ; Yuepeng HU ; Qiang ZHANG ; Xinya JIA ; Liu YANG ; Tangjuan ZHANG ; Dongqing DOU ; Jianliang CAO ; Hui ZHAO ; Genglei CAO ; Yabai KAN ; Xingxing LI ; Chao LAN
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine 2025;34(7):932-939
Objective:To investigate the impact of early invasive arterial blood pressure (IBP) monitoring on survival and neurological outcomes in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients undergoing extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR).Methods:This retrospective cohort study analyzed 44 OHCA patients receiving ECPR between January 2021 and January 2023. Patients were divided into: Early intervention group : IBP established within 3 min of ECMO initiation; Late intervention group : IBP established after ICU admission. Baseline characteristics, ECMO parameters, and clinical outcomes were compared. Multivariable logistic regression (adjusted for age, initial rhythm, etc.) and Spearman's correlation were used.Results:This study included a total of 44 patients treated with OHCA and ECPR, divided into an early intervention group of 23 cases and a late intervention group of 21 cases. The early intervention group showed significantly higher: Survival to discharge (43.5% vs. 9.5%, P<0.05), Good neurological recovery (CPC 1-2: 34.8% vs. 9.5%, P<0.05).Early intervention independently predicted survival (adjusted OR=18.84, 95% CI:1.97-179.98, P=0.01). Stratified analysis by pH (cutoff 7.0) demonstrated consistent benefits in both pH>7.0 ( aOR=0.392, 95% CI:0.106-0.678) and pH≤7.0 subgroups ( aOR=0.385, 95% CI: 0.075-0.695; interaction P=0.183). Early IBP positively correlated with CPC scores ( ρ=0.40, P=0.007). Conclusions:Early IBP monitoring significantly improves survival and neurological outcomes in OHCA-ECPR patients, supporting its integration into standardized protocols.
7.Molecular Mechanisms and Research Progress of Hepatic Injury Induced by Hypercholesterolemia
Xing-tong LAN ; Yi-fan WANG ; Meng-yuan LIU ; Zi-yi GUO ; Jin-bo ZHANG ; Qi-hang WANG ; Yu-dian ZHANG
Progress in Modern Biomedicine 2025;25(17):2865-2874
Hypercholesterolemia is pathologically characterized by abnormal accumulation of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol,which is closely associated with metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease and increased cardiovascular risks.Hepatocytes maintain cholesterol homeostasis through LDL receptor-mediated uptake and esterification storage mechanisms.However,chronic cholesterol overload induces mitochondrial dysfunction,reactive oxygen species accumulation,and endoplasmic reticulum stress,leading to hepatocyte injury.Moreover,systemic hypercholesterolemia disrupts gut microbiota balance and impairs short-chain fatty acid and ketone metabolism,exacerbating metabolic disturbances and aggravating hepatic injury through enhanced metabolic stress.In this article,we review the advance of studies on hypercholesterolemia in recent years and summary its association with hepatic injury,which can provide theoretical support for further research.
8.Annual review of basic research on lung transplantation of China in 2024
Jier MA ; Junmin ZHU ; Lan ZHANG ; Xiaohan JIN ; Xiangyun ZHENG ; Senlin HOU ; Zengwei YU ; Yaling LIU ; Haoji YAN ; Dong TIAN
Organ Transplantation 2025;16(3):386-393
Lung transplantation is the optimal treatment for end-stage lung diseases and can significantly improve prognosis of the patients. However, postoperative complications such as infection, rejection, ischemia-reperfusion injury, and other challenges (like shortage of donor lungs) , limit the practical application of lung transplantation in clinical practice. Chinese research teams have been making continuous efforts and have achieved breakthroughs in basic research on lung transplantation by integrating emerging technologies and cutting-edge achievements from interdisciplinary fields, which has strongly propelled the development of this field. This article will comprehensively review the academic progress made by Chinese research teams in the field of lung transplantation in 2024, with a focus on the achievements of Chinese teams in basic research on lung transplantation. It aims to provide innovative ideas and strategies for key issues in the basic field of lung transplantation and to help China's lung transplantation cause reach a higher level.
9.Efficacy and immunological mechanisms of pegylated interferon α-2b in treatment-naive patients with chronic hepatitis B
Shufen SONG ; Fengxian JIN ; Yu LAN ; Gongchang ZHANG ; Zhiguo WU ; Yao ZHOU ; Qiong XIE ; Long YANG ; Shuilin SUN
Chinese Journal of Infectious Diseases 2025;43(1):14-23
Objective:To evaluate the efficacy and immunological mechanisms of pegylated interferon α-2b (Peg-IFNα-2b) antiviral therapy in treatment-naive patients with chronic hepatitis B(CHB).Methods:A total of 166 treatment-naive CHB patients, who were treated at Department of Infectious Diseases, the Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University from March 2021 to March 2023, were enrolled in this study. All the patients received Peg-IFNα-2b therapy for 48 weeks. Serum hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA, HBV serological markers, biochemical parameters, peripheral blood lymphocyte subsets and serum cytokine levels were detected and compared before and after treatment. Chi-square test, Mann-Whitney U test and paired sample t test were used for statistical comparison. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the influencing factors of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroconversion by stepwise regression method, and the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) was used to evaluate the predictive efficacy of immune indicators on HBsAg seroconversion. Results:Among the 166 treatment-naive CHB patients, the rate of HBV DNA negativity following 48 weeks of Peg-IFNα-2b therapy was 71.08%(118/166), the rate of hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) negativity was 32.05%(25/78), and the rate of HBsAg negativity was 20.48%(34/166). HBsAg negativity rate was 52.17%(24/46) in patients with baseline HBsAg<200 IU/mL, 10.26%(4/39) in patients with baseline HBsAg 200 to <1 200 IU/mL, and 7.41%(6/81) in patients with baseline HBsAg≥1 200 IU/mL, and the difference was statistically significant( χ2=39.37, P<0.001). After 48 weeks of treatment, serum levels of alanine transaminase (ALT), aspartate transaminase (AST), total bilirubin (TBil), and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) were significantly lower than those before treatment ( Z=9.33, 8.58, 5.99, 2.36, respectively, all P<0.05). lmmune indicators were detected in 58 patients, and the proportion of peripheral blood lymphocytes increased significantly post-treatment, with notable increases in CD3 + CD8 + T/CD3 + T, CD3 + CD4 + DR + /CD3 + CD4 + , CD3 + CD8 + DR + /CD3 + CD8 + , CD3 + CD8 + CD38 + /CD3 + CD8 + , CD3 + CD8 + CD28 + /CD3 + CD8 + , and CD19 + B cells, and the differences were all statistically significant ( t=-2.56, t=-8.65, Z=-3.58, t=-3.66, Z=-3.04, t=-3.62, t=-3.87, respectively, all P<0.05). Conversely, the proportion of CD3 + , CD3 + CD4 + T/CD3 + T, CD3 + CD4 + CD45RO + /CD3 + CD4 + , CD3 + CD8 + CD45RO + /CD3 + CD8 + and the CD4 + /CD8 + ratio decreased significantly post-treatment ( t=3.13, t=5.61, t=3.69, Z=3.95, Z=7.33, respectively, all P<0.05). No significant differences were observed in the proportion of CD16 + CD56 + natural killer (NK) cells, CD3 + CD4 + CD28 + /CD3 + CD4 + , CD3 + CD4 + CD38 + /CD3 + CD4 + cells before and after treatment (all P>0.05). Serum levels of interleukin(IL)-8, IL-12P70, and IL-17 significantly decreased post-treatment ( Z=2.85, 3.26, 4.12, respectively, all P<0.05), while IL-2, IL-1β, and interferon(IFN)-α levels were significantly elevated compared to baseline ( Z=-4.92, -4.85, -9.01, respectively, all P<0.001). There were no significant differences in IL-4, IL-6, and IL-10 levels before and after treatment (all P>0.05). Logistic regression analysis identified CD3 + CD8 + T/CD3 + T(odd ratios ( OR)=1.198, 95%confidence interval( CI) 1.003 to 1.432, P=0.046), CD3 + CD4 + DR + /CD3 + CD4 + ( OR=1.185, 95% CI 1.035 to 1.357, P=0.014), CD3 + CD8 + DR + /CD3 + CD8 + ( OR=0.813, 95% CI 0.690 to 0.958, P=0.013), CD3 + CD4 + CD38 + /CD3 + CD4 + ( OR=0.678, 95% CI 0.488 to 0.940, P=0.020), CD3 + CD8 + CD38 + /CD3 + CD8 + ( OR=1.272, 95% CI 1.069 to 1.512, P=0.007), CD19 + B cells( OR=0.752, 95% CI 0.582 to 0.971, P=0.029), IL-2( OR=8.568, 95% CI 1.927 to 38.087, P=0.005), and IL-17( OR=0.728, 95% CI 0.535 to 0.989, P=0.042) as independent factors influencing HBsAg seroconversion. The area under the curve (AUC) of the proportion of dCD19 + B cells (the reciprocal of CD19 + B cells) for predicting HBsAg seroconversion was 0.716, the sensitivity was 0.636, and the specificity was 0.809. The AUC of IL-2 was 0.657, the sensitivity was 0.818, and the specificity was 0.404. The AUC of dIL-17 (the reciprocal of IL-17 levels) was 0.624, the sensitivity was 0.727, and the specificity was 0.489. The AUC of IL-2 and dIL-17 as a combined predictor was 0.830, the sensitivity was 0.909, and the specificity was 0.787. Conclusions:Peg-IFNα-2b demonstrates significant antiviral, biochemical, and serological responses in treatment-naive CHB patients, with enhanced efficacy in patients exhibiting HBsAg levels <200 IU/mL. In patients with HBsAg<200 IU/mL, the rate of HBsAg negativity reached 52.17%.Peg-IFNα-2b can regulate the immune function of patients with CHB by increasing the proportion of activated T lymphocyte subsets and functional subsets. The proportion of CD19 + B cells, IL-2 levels, and IL-17 levels hold predictive value for achieving HBsAg seroconversion.
10.Application of ARIMA in prediction of prevalence trend of carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae in ICU
Shifan JIANG ; Yingjie ZHANG ; Juan LU ; Jin CHENG ; Cejie LAN ; Xing WU
Chinese Journal of Nosocomiology 2025;35(6):933-938
OBJECTIVE To explore the application of autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA)in prediction of prevalence trends of carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae(CRKP)in intensive care unit(ICU)so as to provide scientific bases for formulating prevention strategies for CRKP infection in ICU.METHODS The number of CRKP strains that were monthly isolated from the ICU patients of Jiangnan University Affiliated Hospital between Jan.2021 and Jan.2024 was collected,the duplicate samples from the same patient were excluded,and totally 555 strains of CRKP were finally enrolled in the study.The time series differencing was performed by using R statistical software,the ARIMA model was established,the parameters of the model were determined by means of autocorrelation function(ACF)and partial autocorrelation function(PACF)images.The optimal model was screened out by Akaike information criterion(AIC)and root-mean-square error(RMSD),the robustness of the residual sequences was assessed by Box-Ljung test.The data that were detected from Sep.2023 to Jan.2024 were assigned as the validation set,the prediction accuracy of the model was assessed,and the dy-namic trend of the CRKP strains from Feb.2024 to Apr.2024 was predicted.RESULTS The isolation rate of CRKP strains in ICU showed dynamic change from 2021 to 2023(x2=66.906,P=0.001),sputum and midstream urine were the major sources.The minimal AIC of the optimal ARIMA model(8,1,10)was 222.1,with RMSE 3.67.Box-Ljung(x2=0.104,P=0.746)test indicated that there was no autocorrelation among the residual se-quences.Both the actual CRKP and the predictive value firstly rose then descended from Sep.2023 to Jan.2024,and the average relative error of the model was 9.62%for prediction.The number of isolated CRKP strains predic-ted by the model might reached to the lowest point in Feb.2024 and then showed an upward trend,and it might reach to a high peak in Apr.CONCLUSION ARIMA model is effective for short-term prediction and dynamic anal-ysis of prevalence trend of CRKP strains in the ICU so as to provide theoretical basis for early warning of hospital-associated infection and take corresponding prevention measures.

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