1.Research progress on epigenetic regulation in the occurrence and development of diabetic retinopathy
Jiaxin XU ; Qian PENG ; Chaoqun LIU ; Yan WANG
International Eye Science 2026;26(3):435-440
Diabetic retinopathy(DR)is one of the most common and serious microvascular complications of diabetes, posing a significant threat to patients' visual health. In recent years, epigenetic mechanisms have garnered increasing attention in the scientific community for their pivotal role in the onset and progression of DR. This paper systematically examines the regulatory roles of epigenetic mechanisms in DR, covering key pathways such as DNA methylation, histone modifications, chromatin remodeling, and non-coding RNAs. Under hyperglycemic conditions in diabetes, these epigenetic mechanisms modulate gene expression, thereby influencing critical pathological processes such as oxidative stress, inflammatory responses, mitochondrial dysfunction, and metabolic memory. This article reviews recent advances in epigenetic regulation in DR, providing an in-depth analysis of its underlying molecular mechanisms and complex regulatory networks, and explores the potential of epigenetic markers as diagnostic biomarkers and therapeutic targets. Additionally, this article highlights emerging therapeutic strategies targeting epigenetic modifications, aiming to provide a theoretical foundation and research direction for the early diagnosis and precision treatment of this disease.
2.Analysis of Blood-absorbed Components and Their Metabolic Differences of Xiebaisan in Normal and Chronic Bronchitis Mice Based on UPLC-Q-Exactive Orbitrap MS
Peng PENG ; Jiaxin LI ; Xinyue YANG ; Fangle LIU ; Chenchen ZHU ; Chaozhan LIN ; Yufeng YAO
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(1):219-227
ObjectiveThis study aims to systematically analyze the blood-absorbed components and metabolic profiles of Xiebaisan(XBS) in normal and chronic bronchitis (CB) mice using ultra performance liquid chromatography-quadrupole-electrostatic field orbitrap high resolution mass spectrometry(UPLC-Q-Exactive Orbitrap MS), while comparing differences between the two states. MethodsThirty female BABL/c mice were randomly divided into the normal group, the normal drug administration group, the CB group, the CB drug administration group and the dexamethasone group, with 6 mice in each group. The CB mouse model was established by inducing with ovalbumin (OVA). The mice in the normal drug administration group and the CB drug administration group started to be gavaged with XBS(13.2 g·kg-1) from the 21st day, and the dexamethasone group mice were simultaneously gavaged with dexamethasone (0.5 mg·kg-1) until the end of the 35th day of the experiment. Subsequently, serum samples were collected and evaluated for their efficacy, based on the pharmacological evaluation indicators, to determine the efficacy of XBS in treating CB. Then the UPLC-Q-Exactive Orbitrap MS was employed to identify and analyze the chemical constituents, blood-absorbed components, and metabolites of XBS. Chemometric analysis was conducted to reveal metabolic profile differences under "dual states". Concurrently, Real-time PCR technology was utilized to detect the expression levels of key liver metabolic enzymes CYP2E1, CYP3A1, UGT1A1, and UGT1A6. ResultsA total of 28 prototype components and 158 metabolites (including 48 phase Ⅰ metabolites and 110 phase Ⅱ metabolites) of XBS were unambiguously identified in the serum of normal mice. Additionally, a comprehensive characterization was performed on a total of 32 prototype components and 178 metabolites (including 50 phase Ⅰ metabolites and 128 phase Ⅱ metabolites) of XBS in the serum of CB mice. Among them, 27 prototype components were detected in both states, including 12 flavonoids, 2 alkaloids, 3 triterpenes, 4 organic acids, 3 amides, 1 stilbene and 2 other compounds. The chemometrics analysis revealed no significant difference in the prototype components and metabolites of XBS between normal and CB mice; however, there was a significant increase in the in-vivo exposure of XBS in CB mice. Compared to normal mice, the levels of phase Ⅰ metabolites such as oxidation, reduction and methylation of blood components of XBS as well as phase Ⅱ metabolites of glucuronidation showed significant changes in CB mice. Real-time PCR further confirmed that these alterations were attributed to the upregulation of CYP2E1 (P<0.05), CYP3A1 (P>0.05), UGT1A1 (P<0.01) and UGT1A6 (P<0.01) enzymes expression in the liver of CB mice. ConclusionThis study elucidated the disparities in the levels of the blood-absorbed components and metabolic profiles of XBS in normal and CB mice, especially in oxidation, reduction, methylation in phase Ⅰ metabolism and glucoaldehyde acidification in phase Ⅱ metabolism. And there are related to the differences in the expression levels of phase Ⅰ and phase Ⅱ metabolic enzymes CYP2E1, CYP3A1, UGT1A1 and UGT1A6 in the liver.
3.Association between occupational noise exposure and depressive symptoms among employees in a petrochemical enterprise
Jianye PENG ; Zhuna SU ; Ruilian MO ; Jiaxin LI ; Qisheng WU ; Shiheng FAN ; Bingxian ZHOU ; De’e YU ; Jing ZHANG
Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine 2026;43(2):189-195
Background Depressive symptoms have become a significant factor affecting the physical and mental health of the occupational population, and workers in petroleum refining enterprises face multiple stressors in their work environment. Objective To explore the impact of occupational noise exposure on depressive symptoms among workers in a petroleum refining enterprise. Methods This cross-sectional study was conducted in July 2024 using a questionnaire survey among workers of a petroleum refining enterprise in Hainan Province. Basic information of the subjects was collected. The Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) was used to measure depressive symptoms, the Chinese version of the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) scale was used to assess sleep quality, and the Chinese version of the Effort-Reward Imbalance (ERI) scale was used to evaluate occupational stress. Chi-square test was employed to compare the differences in reporting depressive symptoms among populations with different characteristics. Binary logistic regression models were used to analyze the impact of occupational noise exposure and other factors on depressive symptoms. Results The overall positive rate of depressive symptoms in the study population was 42.7%. The results of the multifactor analysis indicated that compared with the control group, employees in both the low-exposure and high-exposure groups had elevated odds of depressive symptoms, with OR (95%CI) of 2.244 (1.131, 4.454) and 1.970 (1.009, 3.850), respectively. This association remained robust after adjusting for potential confounders, including gender, age, work tenure, and other occupational exposures. Additionally, female [OR (95%CI)=1.483 (1.039, 2.118)], exposure to benzene, toluene, or xylene [OR (95%CI)=1.621 (1.208, 2.174)], sleep disturbance [OR (95%CI)=3.772 (2.942, 4.838)], and occupational stress [OR (95%CI)=2.018 (1.575, 2.585)] were also significantly associated with higher odds of depressive symptoms. Conclusion The positive rate of depressive symptoms is relatively high among employees in this petrochemical enterprise, and occupational noise exposure may be a risk factor for depressive symptoms.
4.Molecular Mechanism of Treating Different Diseases with Same Treatment of Gypenoside L Affecting Oxidative Damage HUVEC and OVCAR-3 Through EGFR/STAT3/Glycolytic Pathway
Ying YANG ; Jiao ZHAO ; Xiaofei SUN ; Jiaxin WANG ; Peng CUI ; Nan SONG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(11):125-134
ObjectiveWith the epidermal growth factor receptor(EGFR)/Signal Transducers and Activators of Transcription(STAT3)/Hexokinase 2(HK2) signaling pathway in atherosclerosis (AS) and ovarian cancer (OC) as the entry point, this paper discusses the molecular mechanism of Gypenoside L (Gyp-L) treating AS and OC with different diseases, provides a new perspective and theoretical basis for TCM treating AS and OC with EGFR-STAT3-HK2 pathway, and enriches the scientific connotation of the theory of "cytoskeleton in the heart". MethodsCCK-8 was used to detect the proliferation of HUVEC and OVCAR-3 cells, in order to determine the intervention concentration for subsequent experiments. The colorimetric method was used to detect the NO content in HUVEC and the contents of pyruvate and LDH in two cell lines. Cell cloning experiments and scratch experiments reflect the proliferation and migration ability of OVCAR-3 cells. Western blot was used to detect the expression levels of relevant proteins. Furthermore, two cell models overexpressing EGFR were constructed and co treated with Gyp-L. HUVEC cells were divided into control, ox-LDL, OE-NC, OE-EGFR, OE-NC+Gyp-L, and OE-EGFR+Gyp-L group. OVCAR-3 cells were divided into control, OE-NC, OE-EGFR , OE-NC+Gyp-L, and OE-EGFR+Gyp-L group. The colorimetric method was used to detect the NO content in HUVEC and the contents of pyruvate and LDH in two cell lines. Western blot was used to detect the expression levels of EGFR-STAT3-HK2 pathway related proteins. Cell cloning experiments and scratch experiments reflect the proliferation and migration ability of OVCAR-3 cells. ResultsGyp-L can significantly reduce the NO content of HUVEC and the pyruvate and LDH content of two cell lines (P<0.05); Inhibit the proliferation and migration ability of OVCAR-3 cells; Reduce the expression levels of EGFR/STAT3/HK2 pathway related proteins in HUVEC and OVCAR-3 cell lines (P<0.05), and inhibit the glycolysis pathway. ConclusionGyp-L can inhibit glycolysis in HUVEC and OVCAR-3 cells through the EGFR/STAT3/HK2 pathway,thereby suppressing the occurrence and development of AS and OC.
5.Effect of Gypenosides on MAFLD Mice and Its Molecular Mechanism Based on Classical/Non-classical Ferroptosis Pathways
Yu LIU ; Yupeng PEI ; Jiaxin WANG ; Jingxuan ZHU ; Xiaofei SUN ; Qun WANG ; Peng CUI ; Nan SONG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(17):99-107
ObjectiveTo explore the effect of gypenosides (GPs) on liver lipid deposition in metabolism-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) mice and its mechanism based on classical/non-classical ferroptosis. MethodsEight male C57BL/6 mice in a blank group and 32 male apolipoprotein E gene knockout (ApoE-/-) mice were randomly divided into a model group, a low-dose GPs (GPs-L) group, a high-dose GPs (GPs-H) group, and a simvastatin (SV) group. Starting from the second week, mice in the blank group were given a maintenance diet, and the other four groups were fed a high-fat diet daily. After eight weeks of feeding, mice in the GPs-L and GPs-H groups were given GPs of 1.487 mg·kg-1·d-1 and 2.973 mg·kg-1·d-1, respectively, and mice in the SV group were given simvastatin of 2.275 mg·kg-1·d-1. Mice in the blank group and the model group were given saline of equal volume by gavage for four weeks. The content of total cholesterol (TC), triglyceride (TG), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) in the serum of mice in each group was detected by an automatic biochemical analyzer. The level of non-esterified fatty acid (NEFA) and TG in the mouse liver was measured by the kit. The change in liver tissue structure and lipid deposition was observed by hematoxylin-eosin (HE) and oil red O staining. The levels of coenzyme Q10 (CoQ10), glutathione (GSH), malondialdehyde (MDA), and Fe2+ in serum, as well as nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate [NAD(P)H] in the liver were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The expression of ferroptosis suppressor protein 1 (FSP1) in the liver of mice was observed by the immunohistochemical (IHC) method, and the expression of genes and proteins related to classical and non-classical ferroptosis pathways was analyzed by real-time polymerase chain reaction (Real-time PCR) and Wes automated protein expression analysis system. ResultsCompared with those in the blank group, the levels of TC, TG, LDL-C, ALT, and AST in serum and TG and NEFA in the liver in the model group were significantly increased, and the level of HDL-C in serum was significantly decreased (P<0.01). The liver tissue structure changed, and there were fat vacuoles of different sizes and a large number of red lipid droplets, with obvious lipid deposition. The level of CoQ10 and GSH in serum and NADH in the liver were significantly decreased, while the level of MDA and Fe2+ in serum was significantly increased (P<0.01). The mRNA and protein expressions of cystine/glutamate transporter (xCT/SLC7A11), glutathione peroxidase (GPX4), p62, nuclear factor E2-related factor 2 (Nrf2), and FSP1 were significantly decreased, and the mRNA and protein expressions of tumor antigen (p53), spermidine/spermine N1-acetyltransferase 1 (SAT1), arachidonate 15-lipoxygenase (ALOX15), and Kelch-like epichlorohydrin-associated protein-1 (Keap1) were significantly increased (P<0.01). Compared with those in the model group, the level of TC, TG, LDL-C, ALT, and AST in serum and TG and NEFA in the liver of mice in the GPs-L, GPs-H, and SV groups were decreased, while the level of HDL-C in serum was significantly increased (P<0.05, P<0.01). The liver tissue structure and lipid deposition were improved. The levels of CoQ10 and GSH in serum and NADH in the liver were significantly increased, while the levels of MDA and Fe2+ in serum were significantly decreased (P<0.05, P<0.01). The mRNA and protein expressions of xCT, GPX4, p62, Nrf2, and FSP1 were significantly increased, while the mRNA and protein expressions of p53, SAT1, ALOX15, and Keap1 were significantly decreased (P<0.05, P<0.01). ConclusionGPs can interfere with liver lipid deposition in MAFLD mice through classical/non-classical ferroptosis pathways.
6.Effect of Gypenosides on MAFLD Mice and Its Molecular Mechanism Based on Classical/Non-classical Ferroptosis Pathways
Yu LIU ; Yupeng PEI ; Jiaxin WANG ; Jingxuan ZHU ; Xiaofei SUN ; Qun WANG ; Peng CUI ; Nan SONG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(17):99-107
ObjectiveTo explore the effect of gypenosides (GPs) on liver lipid deposition in metabolism-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) mice and its mechanism based on classical/non-classical ferroptosis. MethodsEight male C57BL/6 mice in a blank group and 32 male apolipoprotein E gene knockout (ApoE-/-) mice were randomly divided into a model group, a low-dose GPs (GPs-L) group, a high-dose GPs (GPs-H) group, and a simvastatin (SV) group. Starting from the second week, mice in the blank group were given a maintenance diet, and the other four groups were fed a high-fat diet daily. After eight weeks of feeding, mice in the GPs-L and GPs-H groups were given GPs of 1.487 mg·kg-1·d-1 and 2.973 mg·kg-1·d-1, respectively, and mice in the SV group were given simvastatin of 2.275 mg·kg-1·d-1. Mice in the blank group and the model group were given saline of equal volume by gavage for four weeks. The content of total cholesterol (TC), triglyceride (TG), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) in the serum of mice in each group was detected by an automatic biochemical analyzer. The level of non-esterified fatty acid (NEFA) and TG in the mouse liver was measured by the kit. The change in liver tissue structure and lipid deposition was observed by hematoxylin-eosin (HE) and oil red O staining. The levels of coenzyme Q10 (CoQ10), glutathione (GSH), malondialdehyde (MDA), and Fe2+ in serum, as well as nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate [NAD(P)H] in the liver were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The expression of ferroptosis suppressor protein 1 (FSP1) in the liver of mice was observed by the immunohistochemical (IHC) method, and the expression of genes and proteins related to classical and non-classical ferroptosis pathways was analyzed by real-time polymerase chain reaction (Real-time PCR) and Wes automated protein expression analysis system. ResultsCompared with those in the blank group, the levels of TC, TG, LDL-C, ALT, and AST in serum and TG and NEFA in the liver in the model group were significantly increased, and the level of HDL-C in serum was significantly decreased (P<0.01). The liver tissue structure changed, and there were fat vacuoles of different sizes and a large number of red lipid droplets, with obvious lipid deposition. The level of CoQ10 and GSH in serum and NADH in the liver were significantly decreased, while the level of MDA and Fe2+ in serum was significantly increased (P<0.01). The mRNA and protein expressions of cystine/glutamate transporter (xCT/SLC7A11), glutathione peroxidase (GPX4), p62, nuclear factor E2-related factor 2 (Nrf2), and FSP1 were significantly decreased, and the mRNA and protein expressions of tumor antigen (p53), spermidine/spermine N1-acetyltransferase 1 (SAT1), arachidonate 15-lipoxygenase (ALOX15), and Kelch-like epichlorohydrin-associated protein-1 (Keap1) were significantly increased (P<0.01). Compared with those in the model group, the level of TC, TG, LDL-C, ALT, and AST in serum and TG and NEFA in the liver of mice in the GPs-L, GPs-H, and SV groups were decreased, while the level of HDL-C in serum was significantly increased (P<0.05, P<0.01). The liver tissue structure and lipid deposition were improved. The levels of CoQ10 and GSH in serum and NADH in the liver were significantly increased, while the levels of MDA and Fe2+ in serum were significantly decreased (P<0.05, P<0.01). The mRNA and protein expressions of xCT, GPX4, p62, Nrf2, and FSP1 were significantly increased, while the mRNA and protein expressions of p53, SAT1, ALOX15, and Keap1 were significantly decreased (P<0.05, P<0.01). ConclusionGPs can interfere with liver lipid deposition in MAFLD mice through classical/non-classical ferroptosis pathways.
7.Molecular Mechanism of Treating Different Diseases with Same Treatment of Gypenoside L Affecting Oxidative Damage HUVEC and OVCAR-3 Through EGFR/STAT3/Glycolytic Pathway
Ying YANG ; Jiao ZHAO ; Xiaofei SUN ; Jiaxin WANG ; Peng CUI ; Nan SONG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(11):125-134
ObjectiveWith the epidermal growth factor receptor(EGFR)/Signal Transducers and Activators of Transcription(STAT3)/Hexokinase 2(HK2) signaling pathway in atherosclerosis (AS) and ovarian cancer (OC) as the entry point, this paper discusses the molecular mechanism of Gypenoside L (Gyp-L) treating AS and OC with different diseases, provides a new perspective and theoretical basis for TCM treating AS and OC with EGFR-STAT3-HK2 pathway, and enriches the scientific connotation of the theory of "cytoskeleton in the heart". MethodsCCK-8 was used to detect the proliferation of HUVEC and OVCAR-3 cells, in order to determine the intervention concentration for subsequent experiments. The colorimetric method was used to detect the NO content in HUVEC and the contents of pyruvate and LDH in two cell lines. Cell cloning experiments and scratch experiments reflect the proliferation and migration ability of OVCAR-3 cells. Western blot was used to detect the expression levels of relevant proteins. Furthermore, two cell models overexpressing EGFR were constructed and co treated with Gyp-L. HUVEC cells were divided into control, ox-LDL, OE-NC, OE-EGFR, OE-NC+Gyp-L, and OE-EGFR+Gyp-L group. OVCAR-3 cells were divided into control, OE-NC, OE-EGFR , OE-NC+Gyp-L, and OE-EGFR+Gyp-L group. The colorimetric method was used to detect the NO content in HUVEC and the contents of pyruvate and LDH in two cell lines. Western blot was used to detect the expression levels of EGFR-STAT3-HK2 pathway related proteins. Cell cloning experiments and scratch experiments reflect the proliferation and migration ability of OVCAR-3 cells. ResultsGyp-L can significantly reduce the NO content of HUVEC and the pyruvate and LDH content of two cell lines (P<0.05); Inhibit the proliferation and migration ability of OVCAR-3 cells; Reduce the expression levels of EGFR/STAT3/HK2 pathway related proteins in HUVEC and OVCAR-3 cell lines (P<0.05), and inhibit the glycolysis pathway. ConclusionGyp-L can inhibit glycolysis in HUVEC and OVCAR-3 cells through the EGFR/STAT3/HK2 pathway,thereby suppressing the occurrence and development of AS and OC.
8.Research on the role of S100A6 protein in Streptococcus agalactiae-induced neonatal meningitis
Chengdong XIAO ; Mujie ZHANG ; Xiaoyan TIAN ; Jiaxin LIANG ; Shiyu SU ; Yucheng HUANG ; Liang PENG
Chinese Journal of Microbiology and Immunology 2025;45(8):657-663
Objective:To explore the role and molecular mechanisms of S100A6 protein in neonatal meningitis caused by Streptococcus agalactiae. Methods:Human brain microvascular endothelial cells (HBMECs) were used as an in vitro experimental model, and siRNA was employed to construct S100A6 gene knockdown HBMECs strain. The S100A6 gene overexpression cell line was established by lentiviral transfection method. Western blot was used to detect the expression level of S100A6 protein in HBMECs after Streptococcus agalactiae infection, and the change in intracellular inflammatory cytokine protein levels after S100A6 gene knockdown or overexpression. A neonatal bacterial meningitis model was established by injecting Streptococcus agalactiae suspension into the cisterna magna of neonatal Sprague-Dawley (SD) rats. HE staining was used to observe pathological changes in brain tissue; immunohistochemistry was used to detect the expression and distribution of S100A6 protein in brain tissue; Western blot and ELISA were used to measure S100A6 protein levels in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). Results:Compared with the control group, the intracellular S100A6 protein level in HBMECs increased significantly following Streptococcus cgalactiae infection. After S100A6 gene knockdown, the invasion rate of Streptococcus agalactiae into the HBMECs was significantly reduced ( P<0.01), while intracellular TNF-α and IL-6 protein levels were elevated markedly ( P<0.01). In contrast, overexpression of S100A6 gene increased the invasion rate ( P<0.01) and notably decreased TNF-α and IL-6 protein levels ( P<0.001). In the neonatal SD rat bacterial meningitis model, HE staining revealed substantial neutrophil infiltration in brain tissue after Streptococcus agalactiae infection. Immunohistochemistry showed extensive deposition of S100A6 protein around the meninges, and significant expression of S100A6 protein was also detected in CSF. Conclusions:S100A6 protein is crucial in mediating neonatal meningitis caused by Streptococcus agalactiae infection. S100A6 gene knockdown promotes the production of intracellular inflammatory cytokines and reduces Streptococcus agalactiae invasion into cells, thereby alleviating bacteria-induced cellular damage. Additionally, the increased expression of S100A6 protein in brain tissue and CSF after Streptococcus agalactiae infection suggests its potential as a diagnostic biomarker for bacterial meningitis.
9.The role of fatty acid-binding protein 4 in endothelial-mesenchymal transition in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis
Jiangrong LIAO ; Jiaxin DENG ; Naling PENG ; Xing LV ; Shengyu TAN
Chinese Journal of Geriatrics 2025;44(10):1401-1406
Objective:This study aims to investigate the role of fatty acid-binding protein 4 (FABP4) in endothelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EndMT) during the formation of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and its possible mechanism, and to evaluate the therapeutic potential ofFABP4 inhibitor BMS309403.Methods:A bleomycin (BLM)-induced mouse model of pulmonary fibrosis was established for in vivo experiments.hematoxylin-eosin(HE)and Masson staining were used to assess the histopathological changes and collagen deposition in lung tissue, while western blotting (WB) was used to assess EndMT-related protein expression in lung tissue.In vitro, human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVEC) were treated with transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β) to induce the EndMT model.After intervention with FABP4 protein or BMS309403, the expression levels of EndMT related genes and peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor γ (PPAR γ) were detected.Results:BLM-induced mice showed significant pulmonary fibrosis, inflammatory infiltration, and EndMT (upregulated expression of Fibronectin and α-SMA proteins expression, downregulated expression of VE cadherin and CD31 proteins), and BMS309403 treatment significantly alleviated these pathological changes.In vitro experiments confirmed that TGF-β could successfully induce EndMT in HUVECs, FABP4 enhanced the induction effect of TGF-β on EndMT, and BMS309403 could effectively reverse this effect.The co-treatment with TGF-β and FABP4 significantly inhibited the expression of PPARγ, BMS309403 significantly alleviated these changes.Conclusions:FABP4 may promote pulmonary fibrosis progression by facilitating EndMT through the PPARγ signaling pathway.FABP4 may serve as a promising therapeutic target for IPF.
10.Evaluation of performance of influenza trend prediction based on three time series models in Beijing
Xiang XU ; Mengyao LI ; Hui YAO ; Jia LI ; Yingying WANG ; Jiaojiao ZHANG ; Lu ZHANG ; Jiaxin MA ; Xiaoli WANG ; Peng YANG
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2025;46(9):1593-1599
Objective:To explore the trend of influenza positive rate in Beijing by using classic autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous variables (ARIMAX) and vector autoregression model (VAR) to compare the performance of three models in influenza prediction and select the most suitable one for Beijing.Methods:The weekly positive rate of influenza virus nucleic acid test and meteorological data in Beijing from week 1 of 2013 to week 40 of 2024 were collected. The data were divided into four groups with expanding training sets and corresponding testing sets. The training set of the first group was from week 1 of 2013 to week 40 of 2016, and the testing set was from week 41 of 2016 to week 40 of 2017. Subsequent groups extended the training set by one year each time. Data from 2020 to 2023 were excluded due to COVID-19 pandemic. The fourth group used data from the week 1 of 2013 to week 40 of 2023 for training and from the week 41 of 2023 to week 40 of 2024 for testing.Results:The incidence of influenza had seasonality in Beijing with higher incidence in winter and spring. The positive rate of influenza virus was positively correlated with the weekly average atmospheric pressure ( r=0.482, P<0.001) and weekly average wind speed ( r=0.003, P=0.034), and negatively correlated with the weekly average temperature ( r=-0.541, P<0.001). The ARIMAX model incorporating meteorological factors had the best prediction performance, with test set's root mean square error ( RMSE) of 0.115 3 and mean absolute error ( MAE) of 0.076 7 (the RMSE and MAE values for ARIMA and VAR models were 0.117 1 and 0.163 8, and 0.078 6 and 0.122 3, respectively). The prediction results of the optimal model showed that the positive rate of influenza virus would continue to rise in Beijing after October 2024 and reach peak in the second week of 2025, but the peak positive rate would be lower than that of previous influenza season. Conclusions:Compared with the ARIMA model and the VAR model,the ARIMAX model which used meteorological parameters is more suitable for prediction of long-term influenza trend in Beijing. The influenza trend peak was predicted to occur in the second week of 2025, but lower than that in previous influenza season.

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