1.Influencing Factors of Urate Crystal Deposition in Patients with Hyperuricemia and Prediction Model of TCM Syndrome Types-inflammatory Indicators
Jiaqi XU ; Bin AI ; Chao LIN ; Qiaoxuan LIN ; Changning LI ; Jing CAI ; Yan XIAO ; Jiemei GUO ; Youxin SU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(7):66-73
ObjectiveTo identify potential influencing factors of urate crystal deposition at ankle/foot in patients with hyperuricemia (HUA), and to analyze the predictive value of inflammatory indicators for urate crystal deposition in patients with different traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) syndromes, so as to provide potential reference for clinical risk assessment and individualized TCM intervention. MethodsA retrospective study was carried out with the enrollment of 231 HUA patients from The Third Affiliated People's Hospital of Fujian University of Traditional Chinese Medicine between January 2021 and December 2024. The enrolled patients were further divided into a crystal deposition-positive group (143 cases) and a crystal deposition-negative group (88 cases) according to the results of dual-energy computed tomography (CT). Sociodemographic data, living habits, serum uric acid levels, and inflammatory indicators of the enrolled patients were collcted, and TCM syndrome differentiation was performed. Furthermore, univariate analysis was used to compare inter-group differences in clinical characteristics. MMultivariate Logistic regression was applied to identify the influencing factors of urate crystal deposition. In addition, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted to evaluate the predictive efficacy of inflammatory indicators for crystal deposition across different TCM syndromes. ResultsThere were statistically significant inter-group differences in the proportion of males, age, body mass index, proportion of mental labor, rate of low water intake, and rate of high-sugar beverage consumption (P<0.05),whereas no significant difference in low exercise intensity was found between the two groups. Furthermore, compared with the negative group, the positive group had higher serum uric acid level, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), but lower systemic immune-inflammation index (SIRI) (P<0.05). Regarding the distribution of TCM syndromes, the positive group was dominated by the dampness-heat accumulation syndrome (55/143,38.46%), while the negative group was mainly characterized by the phlegm-turbidity obstruction syndrome (44/88,50.00%). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis revealed that high-sugar beverage consumption, elevated NLR, and elevated PLR were risk factors for urate crystal deposition [odd ratio (OR) = 8.002, 5.377, 1.034, respectively; 95% CI 1.572-40.732, 2.179-13.270, 1.013-1.054,all P<0.05], while SIRI was a protective factor (OR = 0.869, 95% CI 0.778-0.971, P<0.05). In the positive group, patients with the dampness-heat accumulation syndrome exhibited the highest NLR, while the lowest PLR and SIRI, showing statistically significant differences with those of other syndromes (all P<0.05). In addition, ROC curve analysis indicated that for the dampness-heat accumulation syndrome, the combined "NLR + PLR" model had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.901 (95% CI 0.850-0.951, P<0.01), with a sensitivity of 89.1% and a specificity of 79.5%; for the blood stasis-heat obstruction syndrome, the combined "NLR + PLR" model had an AUC of 0.880 (95% CI 0.825-0.934, P<0.01), with a sensitivity of 100.0% and a specificity of 67.3%; for the liver-kidney Yin-deficiency syndrome, the single PLR model had an AUC of 0.842 (95% CI 0.731-0.952, P<0.01), with a sensitivity of 83.3% and a specificity of 84.0%. ConclusionUrate crystal deposition in HUA patients exhibits intimate associations with high-sugar beverage consumption as well as elevated NLR and PLR levels. Meanwhile, TCM syndrome differentiation has potential correlation with inflammatory characteristics. The inflammatory indicator-based prediction model constructed based on TCM syndromes exhibits good predictive value.
2.Surveillance of Oncomelania hupensis snails following interruption of schistosomiasis transmission in Yunnan Province
Siqi NING ; Yi DONG ; Chunhong DU ; Lifang WANG ; Yun ZHANG ; Yuhe HE ; Hua JIANG ; Jiayu SUN ; Chunqiong CHEN ; Jiaqi YAN ; Jihua ZHOU ; Zongya ZHANG ; Hongqiong WANG ; Meifen SHEN ; Jing SONG
Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control 2026;38(2):200-206
Objective To investigate the distribution characteristics of Oncomelania hupensis snails in Yunnan Province fol-lowing interruption of schistosomiasis transmission, so as to provide the evidence for assessing the risk of schistosomiasis transmission and scientifically formulating the schistosomiasis surveillance program. Methods According to the requirements of the National Schistosomiasis Surveillance Scheme (2020 Edition), O. hupensis snail surveillance data were collected from 18 schistosomiasis-endemic counties (cities, districts) in Yunnan Province from 2020 to 2024, including area of snail survey, area of snail habitats, area of re-emerging snail habitats, number of frames surveyed, number of frames with O. hupensis snails, number of O. hupensis snails captured, and number of living snails, and the occurrence of frames with snails and mean density of living snails were calculated. Changes in snail status over the 5-year period from 2020 to 2024 and the differences in snail distributions specified by epidemic intensity, environmental type, and vegetation type were analyzed. Results The areas of snail survey increased from 1 727.96 hm2 in 2020 to 3 894.45 hm2 in 2024 (peak) across 18 schistosomiasis-endemic counties (cities, districts) in Yunnan Province during the period from 2020 through 2024. The areas of snail habitats increased from 70.36 hm2 in 2020 to a peak in 2023 (172.04 hm2), followed by a reduction to 132.36 hm2 in 2024, and the areas of re-emerging snail habitats increased from 42.71 hm2 in 2020 to a peak in 2022 (78.43 hm2), followed by a reduction to 40.21 hm2 in 2024. The occurrence of frames with snails and mean density of living snails increased from 1.24% (3 025/244 404) and (0.033 2 ± 0.038 7) snails/0.1 m2 in 2020 to peaks at 2.03% (6 231/307 563) and (0.066 9 ± 0.068 4) snails/0.1 m2 in 2023, followed by reductions to 1.04% (5 829/559 941) and (0.032 6 ± 0.057 7) snails/0.1 m2 in 2024, respectively. There was a significant difference in the occurrence of frames with snails over the 5-year study period (χ2 = 1 962.95, P < 0.05), and the occurrence of frames with snails reduced by 48.71% in 2024 relative to in 2023 (χ2 = 1 411.05, P < 0.005); however, there was no significant difference in the mean density of living snails over the 5 years (H = 5.310, P > 0.05). There were significant differences in the occurrence of frames with snails (χ2 = 481.27, P < 0.05) and mean density of living snails (H = 6.872, P < 0.05) in schistosomiasis-endemic areas with different epidemic intensities. The occurrence of frames with snails (χ2 = 25.32 and 38.70, both P values < 0.017) and mean density of living snails (Z = 28.55 and 49.96, both P values < 0.017) were higher in schistosomiasis transmission-interrupted and eliminated areas with snails than in schistosomiasis-eliminated areas without snails, and the occurrence of frames with snails (χ2 = 453.54, P < 0.017) and mean density of living snails (Z = −56.97, P < 0.017) were higher in schistosomiasis-eliminated areas with snails than in schistosomiasis transmission-interrupted areas with snails. O. hupensis snails were mainly distributed in paddy fields, dry farmlands and ditches; however, the occurrence of frames with snails (13.40%, 424/3 164) and mean density of living snails [(0.252 8 ± 0.158 7) snails/0.1 m2] were higher in ponds/weirs than in other types of environments (both P values < 0.05). Rice, dry farmland crops and weeds were main vegetations in which O. hupensis snails were distributed, and the occurrence of frames with snails (2.29%, 7 111/310 140) and mean density of living snails [(0.072 3 ± 0.018 9) snails/0.1 m2] were higher in weeds than in other types of environments (both P values < 0.05). Conclusions O. hupensis snails have been effectively controlled in Yunnan Province following implementation of integrated schistosomiasis control measures; however, there are still risk factors for schistosomiasis transmission, including reduced attention to schistosomiasis control and snail re-emergence. Improved control efforts and surveillance system construction and timely identification of risk factors of snail status and timely management are recommended to ensure the achievement of the target of schistosomiasis elimination as scheduled.
3.Visual analysis of the application of wearable devices in nursing care both domestically and internationally
Qing DONG ; Shujun XING ; Xianghuan LI ; Jing ZHAI ; Xinyu WANG ; Jiaqi LIU ; Jinlan LI ; Xiaoru GAO ; Yu TANG
China Modern Doctor 2025;63(30):1-4,68
Objective To analyze the research status,hotspots,and trends of wearable devices in nursing applications both domestically and internationally.Methods Using China National Knowledge Infrastructure,Wanfang Data Knowledge Service Platform,and Embase core databases as data sources,VOSviewer was used to visualize and analyze the publication time,keywords,and other relevant literature.Results Total of 428 articles were included,including 196 Chinese articles and 232 English articles.The overall publication volume showed an upward trend.Domestic research focuses on chronic diseases,artificial intelligence,and nursing,with the main research subjects being the elderly;Foreign research focuses on smart devices,self-monitoring,and quality of life,with the main research subjects being adults.Conclusion Currently,the number of publications on the application of wearable devices in nursing is relatively small,but the overall research heat is on the rise,mainly used for chronic diseases and self-monitoring.In the future,the application scope of wearable devices should be expanded and their potential value should be explored to promote the innovation and progress of nursing models.
4.Effect of self-made static progressive braces in the stepwise treatment of hand flexion dysfunction caused by scar contracture after burn injury
Haiyang ZHAO ; Qin ZHOU ; Jiaqi LIU ; Wanfu ZHANG ; Chan ZHU ; Jing XU ; Juntao HAN ; Dahai HU ; Hao GUAN
Chinese Journal of Burns 2025;41(2):155-162
Objective:To explore the effect of self-made static progressive braces in the stepwise treatment of hand flexion dysfunction caused by scar contracture after burn injury.Methods:This study was a retrospective observational study. From January 2022 to March 2024, the First Affiliated Hospital of Air Force Medical University admitted twenty-nine patients who met the inclusion criteria and used the self-made static progressive braces for stepwise treatment of hand flexion dysfunction caused by scar contracture, including 23 males and 6 females, aged 16 to 55 years. The depth of burn on the back of the hand was deep partial-thickness to full-thickness. The self-made static progressive brace referred to the self-made static progressive joint distractor and the self-made static progressive hand flexion distractor. The stepwise treatment was adopted. In the first stage, in-hospital treatment for 2 to 4 weeks was selected. The treatment contents included conventional rehabilitation training and training on the application of the self-made joint distractors. When the active flexion range of motion of the metacarpophalangeal joint was ≥60°, the second stage of treatment was carried out, that is, two weeks of home remote rehabilitation treatment. The treatment contents included individualized exercise training such as training with self-made static progressive joint distractors and training with self-made static progressive hand flexion distractors. Adverse events such as blister, brace compression, and tissue strain during the stepwise treatment were recorded. After the end of the stepwise treatment, the active flexion of the affected hand was observed. During follow-up, the total active range of motion of the affected hand was measured, and the extensibility of the scar and skin and soft tissue on the back of the affected hand and the patient's satisfaction with the therapeutic effect were evaluated. At the last follow-up, the function of the affected hand was evaluated according to the trial standards for evaluation of partial function of upper extremity by the Hand Surgery Society of Chinese Medical Association.Results:During the stepwise treatment, a small amount of blisters developed on the skin at the wrist joint in 2 patients, which was cured after symptomatic treatment; the other patients had no adverse events such as brace compression and tissue strain. After the end of the stepwise treatment, the active flexion function of the hand was better, and the fist could be basically clenched. After 1-3 months of follow-up, the total active range of motion of the affected hand was 200-245°; the scar on the back of the hand was soft and light-colored, and the skin and soft tissue was malleable. Twenty-two patients were very satisfied with the curative effect, 6 patients were satisfied, and 1 patient was dissatisfied. At the last follow-up, there were 20 cases with excellent hand function and 9 cases with good hand function.Conclusions:The stepwise treatment of hand flexion dysfunction caused by scar contracture after burn injury with self-made static progressive braces has a good effect and few complications. Moreover, the two self-made static progressive distractors are convenient in material acquisition, simple to make, cost-effective, and highly practical, which is worthy of clinical promotion.
5.Research advances in the disease burden of viral hepatitis in China
Jian LI ; Fuzhen WANG ; Zhongdan CHEN ; Jinlei QI ; Ailing WANG ; Fanghui ZHAO ; Yuanyuan KONG ; Jing SUN ; Jiaqi KANG ; Zundong YIN ; Zhongfu LIU ; Jidong JIA ; Yu WANG
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2025;41(2):221-227
Over the past three decades, China has made significant progress in the prevention and control of viral hepatitis, and the incidence rates of new-onset pediatric hepatitis B virus infections and acute viral hepatitis in the population have reduced to a relatively low level; however, there is still a heavy disease burden of chronic viral hepatitis in China, which severely affects the health status of the population. This study systematically summarizes the achievements of viral hepatitis prevention and control in China, analyzes existing problems and challenges, and proposes comprehensive prevention and control strategies and measures to eliminate viral hepatitis as a public health threat based on the national conditions of China, in order to provide a reference for related departments in China on how to achieve the action targets for eliminating viral hepatitis as a public health threat by 2030.
6.Study on the influential factors of blood concentration for duloxetine based on therapeutic drug monitoring
Yang LUN ; Liguang DUAN ; Feiyue AN ; Ran FU ; Jing YU ; Chaoli CHEN ; Mengqiang ZHAO ; Shi SU ; Yang SONG ; Jiaqi WANG ; Yuhang YAN ; Chunhua ZHOU
China Pharmacy 2025;36(6):727-731
OBJECTIVE To explore the main factors influencing the blood concentration of duloxetine, and provide a scientific basis for the individualized use of duloxetine. METHODS Retrospective analysis was conducted on 434 inpatients with depressive disorders at the First Hospital of Hebei Medical University, who were treated with duloxetine and underwent blood concentration monitoring between January 2022 and April 2024. The study examined the impact of various factors, including gender, age, body mass index (BMI), gene phenotypes, combined medication, drug type (original/generic), and genotyping results of gene single nucleotide polymorphism loci, on blood concentration and the concentration-to-dose (C/D) after dose adjustment. RESULTS The blood concentration of duloxetine was 76.65 (45.57, 130.31) ng/mL, and C/D was 0.96 (0.63, 1.60) ng·d/(mL·mg). The blood concentration of duloxetine was positively correlated with the daily dose of administration (R2=0.253 7, P<0.001). Blood concentration of duloxetine in 38.94% of patients exceeded the recommended range specified in the guidelines. Gender, age, BMI, combined use of CYP2D6 enzyme inhibitors, and CYP2D6 and CYP1A2 phenotypes had significant effects on C/D of duloxetine (P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS The patient’s age, gender, BMI, combined medication, and genetic phenotypes are closely related to the blood concentration of duloxetine.
7.Evaluation of the performance of the artificial intelligence - enabled snail identification system for recognition of Oncomelania hupensis robertsoni and Tricula
Jihua ZHOU ; Shaowen BAI ; Liang SHI ; Jianfeng ZHANG ; Chunhong DU ; Jing SONG ; Zongya ZHANG ; Jiaqi YAN ; Andong WU ; Yi DONG ; Kun YANG
Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control 2025;37(1):55-60
Objective To evaluate the performance of the artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled snail identification system for recognition of Oncomelania hupensis robertsoni and Tricula in schistosomiasis-endemic areas of Yunnan Province. Methods Fifty O. hupensis robertsoni and 50 Tricula samples were collected from Yongbei Township, Yongsheng County, Lijiang City, a schistosomiasis-endemic area in Yunnan Province in May 2024. A total of 100 snail sample images were captured with smartphones, including front-view images of 25 O. hupensis robertsoni and 25 Tricula samples (upward shell opening) and back-view images of 25 O. hupensis robertsoni and 25 Tricula samples (downward shell opening). Snail samples were identified as O. hupensis robertsoni or Tricula by schistosomiasis control experts with a deputy senior professional title and above according to image quality and morphological characteristics. A standard dataset for snail image classification was created, and served as a gold standard for recognition of snail samples. A total of 100 snail sample images were recognized with the AI-enabled intelligent snail identification system based on a WeChat mini program in smartphones. Schistosomiasis control professionals were randomly sampled from stations of schistosomisis prevention and control and centers for disease control and prevention in 18 schistosomiasis-endemic counties (districts, cities) of Yunnan Province, for artificial identification of 100 snail sample images. All professionals are assigned to two groups according the median years of snail survey experiences, and the effect of years of snail survey experiences on O. hupensis robertsoni sample image recognition was evaluated. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted, and the sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, Youden’s index and the area under the curve (AUC) of the AI-enabled intelligent snail identification system and artificial identification were calculated for recognition of snail sample images. The snail sample image recognition results of AI-enabled intelligent snail identification system and artificial identification were compared with the gold standard, and the internal consistency of artificial identification results was evaluated with the Cronbach’s coefficient alpha. Results A total of 54 schistosomiasis control professionals were sampled for artificial identification of snail sample image recognition, with a response rate of 100% (54/54), and the accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, Youden’s index, and AUC of artificial identification were 90%, 86%, 94%, 0.80 and 0.90 for recognition of snail sample images, respectively. The overall Cronbach’s coefficient alpha of artificial identification was 0.768 for recognition of snail sample images, and the Cronbach’s coefficient alpha was 0.916 for recognition of O. hupensis robertsoni snail sample images and 0.925 for recognition of Tricula snail sample images. The overall accuracy of artificial identification was 90% for recognition of snail sample images, and there was no significant difference in the accuracy of artificial identification for recognition of O. hupensis robertsoni (86%) and Tricula snail sample images (94%) (χ2 = 1.778, P > 0.05). There was no significant difference in the accuracy of artificial identification for recognition of snail sample images with upward (88%) and downward shell openings (92%) (χ2 = 0.444, P > 0.05), and there was a significant difference in the accuracy of artificial identification for recognition of snail sample images between schistosomiasis control professionals with snail survey experiences of 6 years and less (75%) and more than 6 years (90%) (χ2 = 7.792, P < 0.05). The accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and AUC of the AI-enabled intelligent snail identification system were 88%, 100%, 76% and 0.88 for recognition of O. hupensis robertsoni snail sample images, and there was no significant difference in the accuracy of recognition of O. hupensis robertsoni snail sample images between the AI-enabled intelligent snail identification system and artificial identification (χ2 = 0.204, P > 0.05). In addition, there was no significant difference in the accuracy of artificial identification for recognition of snail sample images with upward (90%) and downward shell openings (86%) (χ2 = 0.379, P > 0.05), and there was a significant difference in the accuracy of artificial identification for recognition of snail sample images between schistosomiasis control professionals with snail survey experiences of 6 years and less and more than 6 years (χ2 = 5.604, Padjusted < 0.025). Conclusions The accuracy of recognition of snail sample images is comparable between the AI-enabled intelligent snail identification system and artificial identification by schistosomiasis control professionals, and the AI-enabled intelligent snail identification system is feasible for recognition of O. hupensis robertsoni and Tricula in Yunnan Province.
8.Current Research Status of Digital Technology in the Rehabilitation of Rare Neurological and Muscular Diseases
Yixuan GUO ; Yi GAO ; Yiyang YAO ; Zhuoyue QIN ; Yaofang ZHANG ; Jiaqi JING ; Jing XIE ; Jian GUO ; Shuyang ZHANG
JOURNAL OF RARE DISEASES 2025;4(1):122-131
To review the randomized controlled trials (RCTs) at home and abroad on digital intelligence (DI)-driven rehabilitation in patients of neuromuscular disease, compare the effects of DI-driven rehabilitation with traditional rehabilitation, summarize the special needs and challenges faced by patients in rehabilitation of rare neuromuscular diseases, and provide evidence for the development and quality improvement of rehabilitation for rare neuromuscular diseases. We searched PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, CNKI, VIP, and Wanfang databases for literature on neuromuscular diseases, rare diseases, digital and intelligent technologies, and rehabilitation published from the inception of the databases to June 2024. Basic and research-related information from the retrieved literature was extracted and analyzed. A total of 43 RCTs in English from 14 countries were included. The most studied diseases were Parkinson′s disease and multiple sclerosis. The application of DI-driven technologies in rehabilitation of rare neuromuscular diseases was still limited. The commonly used technologies were virtual reality (VR) games, intelligent treadmill assistance, gait training robots, hybrid assistive limb (HAL), wearable sensors and tele-rehabilitation (TR) systems. These technologies were applied in patients′ homes or rehabilitation service centers. The VR games significantly improved both static/dynamic balance functions and cognitive functions. The intelligent treadmill assistance significantly enhanced gait speed and stride length. The gait training robots significantly improved balance, gait speed and stride length of patients. The wearable exoskeletons significantly enhanced walking ability. DI-driven rehabilitation measures have great value and potential in the field of neuromuscular disease rehabilitation. Their advantages and characteristics can meet the diverse needs of rare disease patients. In the future, a hierarchical and collaborative rehabilitation service system should be established to meet the urgent needs of the rehabilitation of rare neuromuscular diseases. Combining the advantages of digitization and intelligence will provide standardized, scientific, convenient and affordable rehabilitation services to patients.
9.The Application of Digital Intelligence Technology in the Management of Non-Hospitalized Patients with Rare Diseases
Yiyang YAO ; Yi GAO ; Yixuan GUO ; Zhuoyue QIN ; Yaofang ZHANG ; Jiaqi JING ; Jing XIE ; Jian GUO ; Shuyang ZHANG
JOURNAL OF RARE DISEASES 2025;4(1):46-53
To provide references to and give suggestions to the development and optimiza-tion of Digital Intelligence (DI) technology in management of non-hospitalized patients by systematical review the application of digital technology in non-hospital settings. We designed the search strategy and used the words " rare diseases"" patient management"" non-hospitalized management"" community management"" digital intelligence"" big data"" telemedicine" as MESH terms or free words. We searched the database of PubMed, Science-Direct, Web of Science, CNKI, Wanfang and VIP from the beginning of the database to July 2024 and used computer retrieval to get the literatures on the application of DI technology in the management of patients with rare diseases in non-hospital setting. We extracted the information of the first author, country or region, publication time, research participants, DI technology application, and application effect for summary analysis. A total of 13 articles were included in this study, which were from 8 countries or regions. We found that DI technologies used were in the following forms: Internet information platform, wearable devices, telemedicine management platform and electronic database. The DI technology was used by the patients with rare diseases, patient caregivers and professional medical staffs. The application of all the forms above in different populations had good effect. The Internet information platform helped patients and their caregivers learn more about the disease and improved their self-management ability. The wearable device helped monitor the health status of patients in real time and predict the risk of emergent events. The telemedicine management platform facilitated to optimize the allocation of medical resources and strengthen doctor-patient communication. The electronic health database promoted the interconnection of data inside and outside the hospital and improved the accuracy of decision-making through data sharing. The application of DI technology in the management of patients with rare diseases in non-hospitalized settings has shown positive results. In the future, it is necessary to correct the shortcomings and to deal with the challenges in terms of accuracy, readiness, applicability, and privacy protection. Besides, the DI can be integrated into the tri-level management system of patients known as the "patient-community-hospital". It is advisable to take the advantages of digital intelligence technology to improve the efficiency and quality of management of patients in non-hospitalized settings.
10.Construction of a risk prediction model for grade 3-4 MBD in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma patients
Bingrong CHEN ; Wenxiu SHU ; Liufei LUO ; Dian JIN ; Jiaqi TONG ; Jing LE
China Modern Doctor 2025;63(1):22-25,33
Objective To investigate the influencing factors of grade 3-4 multiple myeloma bone disease(MBD)in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma(NDMM)patients,and establish a risk prediction model based on a nomogram.Methods A total of 261 patients with NDMM who were treated in Ningbo Medical Center Lihuili Hospital from January 2015 to December 2021 were retrospectively selected.The patients were divided into group A(MBD grade 0-2,110 cases)and group B(MBD grade 3-4,151 cases)according to MBD grade at the time of initial diagnosis.Logistic regression analysis was used to screen the risk factors for grade 3-4 MBD in NDMM patients,and the risk prediction model was constructed.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was used for comprehensive evaluation.Results Multivariate regression analysis showed that age,serum phosphorus,C-reactive protein(CRP),globulin(GLB)and bone marrow plasma cell percentage(BMPCp)were independent risk factors for grade 3-4 MBD in NDMM patients(P<0.05).Based on this,risk prediction model was constructed as follows:logit(P)=-15.092+0.107(age)+1.150(serum phosphorus)+0.057(CRP)+0.040(GLB)+0.212(BMPCp).There was no significant difference between the predicted probability and the actual incidence by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test(P=0.770).The accuracy of the model in predicting grade 3-4 MBD in NDMM patients was 90.40%,and the area under the curve was 0.957(95%CI:0.932-0.981),indicating a reliable prediction ability.Conclusion Age,serum phosphorus,CRP,GLB and BMPCp were all independent risk factors for grade 3-4 MBD in NDMM patients,and the constructed risk prediction model has a relatively good predictive effect on the occurrence of grade 3-4 MBD in NDMM patients.

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