1.Analysis of the trends of gout disease burden in China from 1990 to 2021 and age-period-cohort model
Jianhu ZHENG ; Ziyan GUO ; Xudong SUN ; Yaxin PAN ; Anyu WANG ; Weidong SUN
Tianjin Medical Journal 2025;53(12):1250-1257
Objective To analyze the temporal trends of gout disezse burden in China from 1990 to 2021,and construct an age-period-cohort(APC)model to explore the independent effects of age,period,and birth cohort on epidemiological indicators,and predict the future burden of gout disease in China from 2022 to 2035.Methods Data on gout disease burden in China during 1990-2021 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021 database.Joinpoint regression analysis was used to assess temporal trends.The APC model was applied to evaluate the age,period and cohort effects on prevalence risk and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs).A Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)model was employed to project the age-standardized prevalence rate(ASPR)and age-standardized DALY rate(ASDR)of gout in China from 2022 to 2035.Results From 1990 to 2021,the incidence,prevalence and DALYs of gout in China all increased substantially,with overall rising trends in the age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR),ASPR and ASDR.Compared with 1990,the incidence,prevalence and DALYs in 2021 increased by 160.45%,181.12%,and 175.93%,respectively,while their age-standardized rates increased by 23.74%,26.48%and 25.89%.Joinpoint regression analysis revealed that average annual percentage changes(AAPCs)of 0.73%for ASIR,0.82%for ASPR and 0.80%for ASDR during 1990-2021.In 2021,the number of cases and DALYs reached their peaks in males aged 55-59 years and females aged 65-69 years.Both prevalence and DALY rates increased steadily with age,with marked rises starting at age 30 in men and age 40 in women.Overall,males showed higher prevalence,DALYs and corresponding rates than those of females across all age groups.APC model results indicated that the age effect,period effect and cohort effects on prevalence and DALY rates presented an overall upward tread.Decomposition analysis showed that population aging contributed the most to the increase in incidence and DALYs from 1990 to 2021.BAPC projections suggested that by 2035,the ASPR and ASDR of gout in China reached 890.50 per 100,000 and 27.26 per 100,000,respectively.Conclusion The ASPR and ASDR of gout in China are projected to continue increasing from 2022 to 2035.Targeted public health strategies for high-risk populations are urgently needed to reduce the growing burden of gout.
2.Analysis of the trends of gout disease burden in China from 1990 to 2021 and age-period-cohort model
Jianhu ZHENG ; Ziyan GUO ; Xudong SUN ; Yaxin PAN ; Anyu WANG ; Weidong SUN
Tianjin Medical Journal 2025;53(12):1250-1257
Objective To analyze the temporal trends of gout disezse burden in China from 1990 to 2021,and construct an age-period-cohort(APC)model to explore the independent effects of age,period,and birth cohort on epidemiological indicators,and predict the future burden of gout disease in China from 2022 to 2035.Methods Data on gout disease burden in China during 1990-2021 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021 database.Joinpoint regression analysis was used to assess temporal trends.The APC model was applied to evaluate the age,period and cohort effects on prevalence risk and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs).A Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)model was employed to project the age-standardized prevalence rate(ASPR)and age-standardized DALY rate(ASDR)of gout in China from 2022 to 2035.Results From 1990 to 2021,the incidence,prevalence and DALYs of gout in China all increased substantially,with overall rising trends in the age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR),ASPR and ASDR.Compared with 1990,the incidence,prevalence and DALYs in 2021 increased by 160.45%,181.12%,and 175.93%,respectively,while their age-standardized rates increased by 23.74%,26.48%and 25.89%.Joinpoint regression analysis revealed that average annual percentage changes(AAPCs)of 0.73%for ASIR,0.82%for ASPR and 0.80%for ASDR during 1990-2021.In 2021,the number of cases and DALYs reached their peaks in males aged 55-59 years and females aged 65-69 years.Both prevalence and DALY rates increased steadily with age,with marked rises starting at age 30 in men and age 40 in women.Overall,males showed higher prevalence,DALYs and corresponding rates than those of females across all age groups.APC model results indicated that the age effect,period effect and cohort effects on prevalence and DALY rates presented an overall upward tread.Decomposition analysis showed that population aging contributed the most to the increase in incidence and DALYs from 1990 to 2021.BAPC projections suggested that by 2035,the ASPR and ASDR of gout in China reached 890.50 per 100,000 and 27.26 per 100,000,respectively.Conclusion The ASPR and ASDR of gout in China are projected to continue increasing from 2022 to 2035.Targeted public health strategies for high-risk populations are urgently needed to reduce the growing burden of gout.
3.Diagnostic value of 18F -FDG PET -CT in looking for tumor primary lesion with multiple bone metastasis
Xiaodong SHEN ; Jianhu PAN ; Minhan CHEN ; Jinzhu LI ; Huaying HUANG
Chinese Journal of Primary Medicine and Pharmacy 2015;(12):1872-1874
Objective To evaluate the diagnostic value of 18F-FDG PET-CT in looking for tumor primary lesion with multiple bone metastasis.Methods 84 patients with suspected bone metastases were detected by routine imaging (X -ray,CT,MRI)in our hospital from May 2012 to September 2014 were selected,18F -FDG PET/CT were used to find the primary lesion.The final diagnosis were confirmed by tissue pathology or by clinical imaging follow -up.The diagnostic sensitivity,specificity and accuracy on tumor bone metastasis of 18F -FDG PET/CT were recorded.Results In 84 patients,primary tumor was found in 49 cases,of which 46 cases (54.8%)confirmed pri-mary tumor by operation or pathology,the other 3 cases were false positive;35 patients were diagnosed as non meta-static bone tumor by PET/CT,in which 34 cases were finally confirmed as non metastatic bone tumor by pathology and follow -up;accuracy,sensitivity,specificity of 18F -FDG PET/CT were 54.8%(46 /84),93.9% (46 /49)and 95.2%(80 /84);18 cases of lung cancer,9 cases of prostate cancer,7 cases of breast cancer,5 cases of lymphoma, 4 cases of renal cell carcinoma,2 cases of liver cancer,1 cases of Uterine sarcoma were included in 46 primary tumors.Conclusion 18F -FDG PET/CT has a higher specificity,accuracy as well as higher detection rate in search of multiple bone metastases,thus it is beneficial to the clinical therapy.
5.Value of Percutaneous Biopsy CT-guided in Spine Lesions
Xingcan CHEN ; Yiman YU ; Linai XIANG ; Jianhu PAN ; Jianliang MIAO ; Xiaohong LI
Journal of Practical Radiology 2000;0(12):-
Objective To evaluate the clinical application of percutaneous biopsy CT-guided in spine lesions.Methods CT-guided percutaneous biopsy in spine lesions was performed in 53 cases,the final diagnosis was confirmed by operation or following-up. Results The accurate rate was 85 percent for CT -guided percutaneous biopsy in spine lesions without complication.The reason of misdiagnosis was mainly that the biopsied lesions was incorrect. Conclusion The perfect percutaneous needle is the successful key for biopsy in spine lesions, we should coordinate the relationship between imaging diagnosis and percutaneous bone biopsy.

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