The Healthy China 2030 Plan set the goal of reducing premature deaths from diabetes by 30% by 2030. However, there has been a lack of assessment of premature mortality for diabetes since the action plan was issued. This study used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, calculated the premature deaths for diabetes by sex, provinces, and subtypes from 1990 to 2021. We explored the temporal trend of premature mortality using the average annual percent change (AAPC) for different sexes, provinces, and subtypes from 1990 to 2021. Furthermore, we predicted premature mortality for diabetes through 2030 for China and its provinces according to the average annual change rate from 2010 to 2021. There was a first slow upward trend in premature mortality for diabetes from 0.5% in 1990 to 0.6% in 2004, and then a decline until 2021 with premature mortality of 0.4%. By 2030, only Fujian (30.3%) will achieve the desired level of reduction, with only seven provinces meeting the target for females and none for males. There is a large range in the degree of decline between inland and coastal regions, showing obvious geographic differences, and there should be a focus on balancing medical resources.
Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Female ; Male ; Mortality, Premature/trends* ; Diabetes Mellitus/mortality* ; Goals ; Middle Aged ; Adult

Objective:To analyze premature deaths from malignant tumors among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2021, and to quantify the extent to which changes in premature mortality from malignant tumors affect life expectancy among people aged 30 to 69 years.Methods:Using the Global Burden of Disease 2021 data on selected causes of death in China, the malignant tumor mortality rate was estimated for Chinese residents aged 30-69 years from 1990 to 2021, and life expectancy and de-malignant cause-of-death life expectancy were calculated based on the abridged life table for the Chinese population. Arriaga's decomposition method was used to assess the extent to which changes in malignant tumors mortality contributed to changes in life expectancy for people aged 30-69 years and Potential gains in life expectancy (PGLEs) for people aged 30- 69 years.Results:From 1990 to 2021, the standardized mortality rate of malignant tumors among Chinese people aged 30-69 years decreased from 154.29/100 000 to 98.58/100 000, and the change in the mortality rate of malignant tumors among people aged 30-69 years contributed to the increase of life expectancy of about 0.78 years, and the largest contribution was made by the age group aged 55-59 years, which was about 0.17 years. Among the top 10 malignant tumors, the largest "positive contributions" are stomach cancer, esophageal cancer, and liver cancer, with a cumulative contribution of 0.55 years, while pancreatic cancer hurts the increase of overall life expectancy. The PGLEs of malignant tumors for the population aged 30-69 years will be 1.69 years in 2021, which is higher for men (1.97 years) than for women (1.32 years). The top 5 malignant tumors causing loss of life expectancy in the population were tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer, stomach cancer, esophageal cancer, colorectal cancer, and liver cancer, in that order. Compared with 1990, in 2021, PGLEs for malignant tumors among people aged 30-69 years increased in seven provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), including Yunnan and Guizhou, and the rest saw a decline, with the largest decrease in Anhui Province.Conclusions:The standardized mortality rate of malignant tumors among Chinese residents aged 30-69 years declined from 1990 to 2021;the change in mortality rate of malignant tumors showed a positive effect on the growth of life expectancy, the change in PGLEs of malignant tumors varied among provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), and premature deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and gastrointestinal malignant tumors still need to be paid attention to.

Objective:To present an evaluation indicator system for access to cancer screening services.Methods:The evaluation indicator pool was constructed through a scoping review. The theoretical framework was constructed based on the multi-source indicators, and the qualitative expert consultation method was employed to form the initial version of the three-level evaluation indicator system. Delphi expert consultation method was conducted in two rounds to evaluate the relevance, importance, and availability of the proposed evaluation indicator system. The expert positive coefficient, authority coefficient, coordination degree of expert opinions, and concentration of expert opinions were subjected to analysis. Subsequently, the three-level evaluation indicator system for access to cancer screening services was adjusted and determined based on the boundary value method and the open opinions of experts. Finally, the combination weight method was employed to determine the weight.Results:The initial version of the indicator system comprised 3 primary (first-level) indicators, 11 secondary (second-level) indicators, and 46 tertiary (third-level) indicators. Delphi expert consultation was conducted for the initial version, and 17 experts ultimately completed it, exhibiting a positive coefficient of 100% and an authority coefficient of 0.87. In comparison to the initial round of consultation, Kendall's W coefficient ranges (0.15-0.43, all P<0.05) of relevance, importance, and availability scores for each tertiary indicator in the second round exhibited an improvement. The analysis of the importance dimension indicates that expert opinions are also more concentrated, as evidenced by an increase of 8.5% and 7.0% in the proportion of the tertiary indicators with an arithmetic mean above 8 and a full mark ratio above 0.5, respectively. The final evaluation indicator system comprises three primary indicators, with the weights of structure evaluation, process evaluation, and outcome evaluation being 0.338, 0.378, and 0.285, respectively. It also comprises 11 secondary indicators and 45 tertiary indicators. Conclusions:The evaluation indicator system developed in this article can be an effective evaluation tool for quantitative comparison of access to cancer screening services across different populations, cancer types, and before and after intervention. Furthermore, it is recommended that the system undergo continuous optimization concerning its application.

Objective:To analyze the current status and trend of the mortality burden of cardiovascular disease in China from 2010 to 2021.Methods:Data related to cardiovascular disease mortality and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD2021) database. The age-standardized mortality rate and DALY rate were calculated, using the 2021 world standard population estimated by GBD2021. Joinpoint 5.2.0 software was used to calculate the mortality rate, standardized mortality rate, DALY rate, standardized DALY rate, annual percent change (APC), average annual percent change (AAPC), and 95% CI of cardiovascular disease in China from 2010 to 2021. Results:The mortality rate of cardiovascular disease was 357.44/100 000, and the age-standardized mortality rate was 280.11/100 000 in China in 2021. The DALY rate was 7 043.33/100 000, and the age-standardized DALY rate was 5 120.06/100 000. From 2010 to 2021, the mortality rate and DALY rate of cardiovascular disease in China showed an upward trend (AAPC was 1.58% and 0.83%, respectively, both P<0.05), and the standardized mortality rate and standardized DALY rate showed a downward trend (AAPC was -2.13% and -2.02%, respectively, both P<0.05). The mortality burden of cardiovascular disease was higher in males (mortality rate 392.80/100 000, DALY rate 8 156.19/100 000) than in females (mortality rate 320.38/100 000, DALY rate 5 876.87/100 000). With the increase older in age, the mortality burden of cardiovascular disease in China decreased first and then increased. China ranked high in the mortality burden of cardiovascular disease among G20 member countries. Conclusions:The death burden of cardiovascular disease is serious in China. The mortality rate and DALY rate of cardiovascular disease in China showed an increasing trend from 2010 to 2021, and the standardized mortality rate and standardized DALY rate of cardiovascular disease ranked high in G20 member countries. The death burden of cardiovascular disease was more serious in men and the elderly. It is necessary to develop more comprehensive prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation measures for men and the elderly to reduce mortality and disability rates, decrease the disease burden, and improve the quality of life.

Objective:To analyze premature deaths from malignant tumors among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2021, and to quantify the extent to which changes in premature mortality from malignant tumors affect life expectancy among people aged 30 to 69 years.Methods:Using the Global Burden of Disease 2021 data on selected causes of death in China, the malignant tumor mortality rate was estimated for Chinese residents aged 30-69 years from 1990 to 2021, and life expectancy and de-malignant cause-of-death life expectancy were calculated based on the abridged life table for the Chinese population. Arriaga's decomposition method was used to assess the extent to which changes in malignant tumors mortality contributed to changes in life expectancy for people aged 30-69 years and Potential gains in life expectancy (PGLEs) for people aged 30- 69 years.Results:From 1990 to 2021, the standardized mortality rate of malignant tumors among Chinese people aged 30-69 years decreased from 154.29/100 000 to 98.58/100 000, and the change in the mortality rate of malignant tumors among people aged 30-69 years contributed to the increase of life expectancy of about 0.78 years, and the largest contribution was made by the age group aged 55-59 years, which was about 0.17 years. Among the top 10 malignant tumors, the largest "positive contributions" are stomach cancer, esophageal cancer, and liver cancer, with a cumulative contribution of 0.55 years, while pancreatic cancer hurts the increase of overall life expectancy. The PGLEs of malignant tumors for the population aged 30-69 years will be 1.69 years in 2021, which is higher for men (1.97 years) than for women (1.32 years). The top 5 malignant tumors causing loss of life expectancy in the population were tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer, stomach cancer, esophageal cancer, colorectal cancer, and liver cancer, in that order. Compared with 1990, in 2021, PGLEs for malignant tumors among people aged 30-69 years increased in seven provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), including Yunnan and Guizhou, and the rest saw a decline, with the largest decrease in Anhui Province.Conclusions:The standardized mortality rate of malignant tumors among Chinese residents aged 30-69 years declined from 1990 to 2021;the change in mortality rate of malignant tumors showed a positive effect on the growth of life expectancy, the change in PGLEs of malignant tumors varied among provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), and premature deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and gastrointestinal malignant tumors still need to be paid attention to.

Objective:To present an evaluation indicator system for access to cancer screening services.Methods:The evaluation indicator pool was constructed through a scoping review. The theoretical framework was constructed based on the multi-source indicators, and the qualitative expert consultation method was employed to form the initial version of the three-level evaluation indicator system. Delphi expert consultation method was conducted in two rounds to evaluate the relevance, importance, and availability of the proposed evaluation indicator system. The expert positive coefficient, authority coefficient, coordination degree of expert opinions, and concentration of expert opinions were subjected to analysis. Subsequently, the three-level evaluation indicator system for access to cancer screening services was adjusted and determined based on the boundary value method and the open opinions of experts. Finally, the combination weight method was employed to determine the weight.Results:The initial version of the indicator system comprised 3 primary (first-level) indicators, 11 secondary (second-level) indicators, and 46 tertiary (third-level) indicators. Delphi expert consultation was conducted for the initial version, and 17 experts ultimately completed it, exhibiting a positive coefficient of 100% and an authority coefficient of 0.87. In comparison to the initial round of consultation, Kendall's W coefficient ranges (0.15-0.43, all P<0.05) of relevance, importance, and availability scores for each tertiary indicator in the second round exhibited an improvement. The analysis of the importance dimension indicates that expert opinions are also more concentrated, as evidenced by an increase of 8.5% and 7.0% in the proportion of the tertiary indicators with an arithmetic mean above 8 and a full mark ratio above 0.5, respectively. The final evaluation indicator system comprises three primary indicators, with the weights of structure evaluation, process evaluation, and outcome evaluation being 0.338, 0.378, and 0.285, respectively. It also comprises 11 secondary indicators and 45 tertiary indicators. Conclusions:The evaluation indicator system developed in this article can be an effective evaluation tool for quantitative comparison of access to cancer screening services across different populations, cancer types, and before and after intervention. Furthermore, it is recommended that the system undergo continuous optimization concerning its application.

Objective:To analyze the current status and trend of the mortality burden of cardiovascular disease in China from 2010 to 2021.Methods:Data related to cardiovascular disease mortality and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD2021) database. The age-standardized mortality rate and DALY rate were calculated, using the 2021 world standard population estimated by GBD2021. Joinpoint 5.2.0 software was used to calculate the mortality rate, standardized mortality rate, DALY rate, standardized DALY rate, annual percent change (APC), average annual percent change (AAPC), and 95% CI of cardiovascular disease in China from 2010 to 2021. Results:The mortality rate of cardiovascular disease was 357.44/100 000, and the age-standardized mortality rate was 280.11/100 000 in China in 2021. The DALY rate was 7 043.33/100 000, and the age-standardized DALY rate was 5 120.06/100 000. From 2010 to 2021, the mortality rate and DALY rate of cardiovascular disease in China showed an upward trend (AAPC was 1.58% and 0.83%, respectively, both P<0.05), and the standardized mortality rate and standardized DALY rate showed a downward trend (AAPC was -2.13% and -2.02%, respectively, both P<0.05). The mortality burden of cardiovascular disease was higher in males (mortality rate 392.80/100 000, DALY rate 8 156.19/100 000) than in females (mortality rate 320.38/100 000, DALY rate 5 876.87/100 000). With the increase older in age, the mortality burden of cardiovascular disease in China decreased first and then increased. China ranked high in the mortality burden of cardiovascular disease among G20 member countries. Conclusions:The death burden of cardiovascular disease is serious in China. The mortality rate and DALY rate of cardiovascular disease in China showed an increasing trend from 2010 to 2021, and the standardized mortality rate and standardized DALY rate of cardiovascular disease ranked high in G20 member countries. The death burden of cardiovascular disease was more serious in men and the elderly. It is necessary to develop more comprehensive prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation measures for men and the elderly to reduce mortality and disability rates, decrease the disease burden, and improve the quality of life.

[Purpose]To analyze the trend of prostate cancer mortality in China from 2011 to 2020,and to predict the prostate cancer mortality trend from 2021 to 2030.[Methods]The data were collected from the National Mortality Surveillance System(NMSS)from 2011 to 2020,the burden of prostate cancer in China from 2011 to 2020 were analyzed by the number of deaths,age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR),years of life lost(YLL)and age-standardized YLL rate.Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the average annual percentage change(AAPC)to describe the trend of change.The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the mor-tality rate of prostate cancer from 2021 to 2030 and estimate the number of deaths of prostate can-cer in the future.Decomposition analysis was carried out to explore the potential drivers of changes of mortality.[Results]The number of prostate cancer deaths in China in 2020 was 30 805 with an ASMR of 5.56/105.The ASMR for prostate cancer in urban and rural areas was 6.56/105 and 4.84/105,respectively.From 2011 to 2020,the number of prostate cancer deaths,ASMR and age-standardized YLL rate of prostate cancer in China showed an upward trend,AAPC was 5.4％(95％CI:4.7％～6.1％),1.5％(95％CI:1.4％～1.6％)and 1.1％(95％CI:1.1％～1.2％),respective-ly.The ASMR of prostate cancer was higher in the eastern region than those in the central and western regions.Prostate cancer deaths increased in both urban and rural areas among people aged 60 years old and above.In 2030,it is predicted the ASMR of prostate cancer would increase to 5.74/105.Population aging,changes in age-specific mortality rates,and natural population growth accounted for 24.75％,2.77％,and 7.45％of the changes in total deaths of prostate can-cer,respectively.[Conclusion]The burden of prostate cancer is increasing in China.Targeted measures should be implemented in high-risk areas and high-risk groups to effectively reduce the disease burden caused by prostate cancer.

[Purpose]To analyze the trend of prostate cancer mortality in China from 2011 to 2020,and to predict the prostate cancer mortality trend from 2021 to 2030.[Methods]The data were collected from the National Mortality Surveillance System(NMSS)from 2011 to 2020,the burden of prostate cancer in China from 2011 to 2020 were analyzed by the number of deaths,age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR),years of life lost(YLL)and age-standardized YLL rate.Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the average annual percentage change(AAPC)to describe the trend of change.The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the mor-tality rate of prostate cancer from 2021 to 2030 and estimate the number of deaths of prostate can-cer in the future.Decomposition analysis was carried out to explore the potential drivers of changes of mortality.[Results]The number of prostate cancer deaths in China in 2020 was 30 805 with an ASMR of 5.56/105.The ASMR for prostate cancer in urban and rural areas was 6.56/105 and 4.84/105,respectively.From 2011 to 2020,the number of prostate cancer deaths,ASMR and age-standardized YLL rate of prostate cancer in China showed an upward trend,AAPC was 5.4％(95％CI:4.7％～6.1％),1.5％(95％CI:1.4％～1.6％)and 1.1％(95％CI:1.1％～1.2％),respective-ly.The ASMR of prostate cancer was higher in the eastern region than those in the central and western regions.Prostate cancer deaths increased in both urban and rural areas among people aged 60 years old and above.In 2030,it is predicted the ASMR of prostate cancer would increase to 5.74/105.Population aging,changes in age-specific mortality rates,and natural population growth accounted for 24.75％,2.77％,and 7.45％of the changes in total deaths of prostate can-cer,respectively.[Conclusion]The burden of prostate cancer is increasing in China.Targeted measures should be implemented in high-risk areas and high-risk groups to effectively reduce the disease burden caused by prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: Biliary tract carcinomas (BTCs) are relatively rare but lethal primary malignant tumors derived from the biliary tract system. The burden of BTCs varies according to sex, age, region, and country, but limited attention has been paid to the burden of BTCs. We sought to explore the up-to-date data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) and expand findings by accessing the demographic features of BTC disease burden. METHODS: Using the latest data from the GBD 2021, we evaluated and analyzed the distributions and patterns of BTC disease burden in various age groups, sexes, regions, and countries. RESULTS: The number of incident cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) tended to increase and peaked at 216,770 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 181,890-245,240), 171,960 (95% UI: 142,350-194,240), and 3,732,100 (95% UI: 3,102,900-4,317,000) person-years, respectively, in 2021. However, the average global age-standardized rates (ASRs) of incident cases, deaths, and DALYs shrunk by -11.46% (95% UI: -21.91 to 3.35%), -24.09% (95% UI: -33.19 to 16.88%), and -26.25% (95% UI: -35.53 to 18.36%), respectively, from 1990 to 2021. Meanwhile, the male/female ratio (male per 100 female) of incidence, deaths, and DALYs changed from 76.40, 75.41, and 74.72 to 86.89, 79.11, and 82.29, respectively. In 2021, the highest number of incident cases, deaths, and DALYs occurred in East Asia. The top three highest incidences, deaths, and DALYs were observed in China, India, and Japan, and the highest ASRs were observed in Chile in 2021. Analysis of the Human Development Index along with disease burden estimates of BTCs also suggests that the burden of the disease is related to the level of comprehensive development of the society. CONCLUSION This study provided a comprehensive comparison of differences in the burden of disease across populations and over time, and further presented evidence concerning the formulation of prevention and control policies and etiologic studies for BTCs and proposed logical hypotheses to investigate.
Humans ; Global Burden of Disease ; Biliary Tract Neoplasms/epidemiology* ; Male ; Female ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Adult ; Incidence ; Aged, 80 and over ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Cost of Illness