1.Outlook on clinical blood demand from 2026 to 2035
Meng JIANG ; Hanmei ZHANG ; Linlin LI ; Jian KONG ; Xin WANG ; Minxiang GUO ; Cheng LIANG ; Hui WU
Chinese Journal of Blood Transfusion 2026;39(8):1074-1082
Objective: To analyze the demographic evolution of China over the forthcoming decade (2026-2035) and to systematically evaluate its potential implications for voluntary blood donation practices and the equilibrium of clinical blood supply and demand. Methods: Leveraging comprehensive blood collection and utilization data from 2021 to 2025 at the national, provincial (Shandong), and municipal (Zibo) levels, we identified and examined critical determinants influencing blood management systems. The DeepSeek-V3.2 large language model was deployed to project future population age structures, and to generate quantitative estimates for hospitalization volumes, clinical blood requirements, available blood supply, and donation frequencies for the target years 2030 and 2035, thereby furnishing an evidence base for strategic planning and priority-setting. Results: DeepSeek-derived projections indicate that the proportion of China's population aged 60 years and above will surpass 27% (370 million/1 380 million) by 2030 and exceed 30% (400 million/1 350 million) by 2035, signaling a marked acceleration in population aging. This demographic shift is projected to reduce the proportion of the national population eligible to donate blood from 59.2% (835 million out of 1.41 billion) to 52% (710 million out of 1.36 billion), while the demand for blood is expected to increase by 87.8% relative to 2024, rising from 26.927 million units to 50.56 million units. Sustaining blood supply-demand balance will necessitate progressive annual increases in donation rates. Under prevailing policy frameworks, the required blood donation rate among the eligible population in Shandong Province would need to rise by 122.57% by 2035 [from 20.07‰ (1.1641 million person-times/58 million people) to 44.67‰ (2.189 million person-times/49 million people)] to potentially satisfy projected clinical requirements. Conclusion: By integrating DeepSeek-V3.2, AI predictive models, and blood donation incentive measures, it is possible to monitor population demographics, forecast clinical blood demand, manage blood supplies, and ensure the long-term sustainability of clinical blood availability. It must be acknowledged, however, that the present analysis is constrained by a limited data foundation (comprising only five annual observation points); accordingly, the projections should be interpreted as directional trend indicators or methodological illustrations rather than definitive quantitative forecasts.
2.Predictive value of color Doppler ultrasound combined with electrocardiogram for right heart dys func-tion in patients with pulmonary heart disease
Wan-wan WU ; Hai-bo SHEN ; Chun-lian MA ; Dian-dong HUANG ; Fang-hong WANG ; Hui-qin WANG ; Li KAN ; Jian SUN ; Ji-wen SHEN ; Meng HUANG
Chinese Journal of cardiovascular Rehabilitation Medicine 2025;34(3):332-337
Objective:To investigate the predictive value of color Doppler ultrasound combined with electrocardio-gram for right heart dys function in patients with pulmonary heart disease(PHD).Methods:A total of 100 PHD patients admitted in Dongcheng Branch of First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University between January 2020 and December 2023 were retrospectively analyzed.According to results of 6min walking test(6MWT),pa-tients were divided into good right heart function group(n=64,≥350m)and right heart dysfunction group(n=36,<350m).The indexes of cardiac color ultrasound[isovolumic relaxation time(IVRT),isovolumetric contraction time(IVCT)and right ventricular Tei index],ECG[24h mean R-R interval standard deviation(SDNN),normal R-R interval standard deviation per 5min(SDANN)and the ratio of low frequency components to high frequency components(LF/HF)]were compared between two groups.Receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was drawn to analyze the diagnostic value of color Doppler ultrasound,ECG and their combination for right heart dys-function in PHD patients.Spearman correlation coefficient was used to analyze the association of color Doppler ul-trasound,ECG and their combination with right heart dysfunction in PHD patients.Results:Compared with those in good right heart function group,patients in right heart dysfunction group had significant higher IVRT[(120.64±14.08)ms vs.(97.87±10.93)ms],IVCT[(84.28±12.33)ms vs.(71.92±10.61)ms]and Tei index[(0.85±0.11)vs.(0.63±0.07)](P<0.001 all),and significant lower SDNN[(75.52±12.58)ms vs.(85.58±11.75)ms],SDANN[(63.86±10.92)ms vs.(76.75±11.71)ms]and LF/HF[(1.33±0.19)vs.(1.84±0.27)](P<0.001 all).ROC curve indicated that the AUC of color Doppler ultrasound combined ECG in diagnosing right heart dysfunction in PHD patients was 0.911(95%CI 0.838~0.959),which was significantly higher than those of color Doppler ultrasound[0.775(95%CI 0.681~0.853),Z=2.404,P=0.016]and ECG[0.688(95%CI 0.588~0.777),Z=3.968,P=0.001]alone.Spearman correlation analysis indicated that there was a significant positive correlation of color Doppler ultrasound(r=0.547),ECG(r=0.375)and their combination(r=0.810)with right heart dysfunction in PHD patients(P<0.001 all),and the correlation between combined detection and right heart dysfunction in PHD patients was significantly higher.Conclusion:Color Doppler ultrasound combined with ECG possesses high diagnostic performance for right heart dysfunction in PHD patients.
3.Prospective study on the association between lifestyles and the risk of type 2 diabetes in adult residents
Meng-ru HE ; Xiao-li XU ; Gen-ming ZHAO ; Xing LIU ; Hui-lin XU ; Dan-dan HE ; Yu-ping CHENG ; Yong-gen JIANG ; Qian PENG ; Jian-hua SHI ; Xiao-hua LIU
Fudan University Journal of Medical Sciences 2025;52(5):647-656,685
Objective To analyze the association between lifestyle and the risk of type 2 diabetes(T2D)among adult residents.Methods The data was sourced from the Shanghai Suburban Adult Cohort and Biobank.A total of 42 096 adult residents who had not developed T2D were recruited from four districts of Shanghai(Songjiang,Jiading,Minhang,and Xuhui)between 2016 and 2019.The follow-up ended on Feb 28,2023.A structured questionnaire was used to collect information on six lifestyle-related items,including smoking,alcohol consumption,BMI,waist circumference(WC),physical activity,and diet.The unhealthy lifestyle scores(UHLS)were calculated by counting the number of all the unhealthy lifestyle items,with a range of 0-6.New-onset T2D events diagnosed by physicians were obtained through the medical information system.Cox proportional hazards regression model and restricted cubic spline model were utilized to evaluate the association between unhealthy lifestyles and the risk of T2D incidence.Results About 28.1%of the participants led 4-6 unhealthy lifestyles.A total of 1 752 new T2D cases were identified during 218 513.4 person-years of follow-up.Analysis of single unhealthy lifestyle showed that abnormal WC(HR=1.5,95%CI:1.4-1.7)and abnormal BMI(HR=1.3,95%CI:1.2-1.5)were associated with an increased risk of T2D.Compared with individuals with a UHLS of 0-1,those with a UHLS of 3 and 4-6 had 30%(95%CI:1.1-1.6)and 50%(95%CI:1.2-1.8)higher risks of T2D,respectively.Each additional unhealthy lifestyle was associated with a 10%increase in T2D incidence risk(HR=1.1,95%CI:1.1-1.2).Conclusion The risk of T2D in adult residents increases with the cumulative number of unhealthy lifestyles.Adult residents with abnormal WC or BMI,or have three or more unhealthy lifestyles accumulated,will increase the risk of new-onset T2D.
4.Criteria and prognostic models for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing liver transplantation
Meng SHA ; Jun WANG ; Jie CAO ; Zhi-Hui ZOU ; Xiao-ye QU ; Zhi-feng XI ; Chuan SHEN ; Ying TONG ; Jian-jun ZHANG ; Seogsong JEONG ; Qiang XIA
Clinical and Molecular Hepatology 2025;31(Suppl):S285-S300
Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a leading cause of cancer-associated death globally. Liver transplantation (LT) has emerged as a key treatment for patients with HCC, and the Milan criteria have been adopted as the cornerstone of the selection policy. To allow more patients to benefit from LT, a number of expanded criteria have been proposed, many of which use radiologic morphological characteristics with larger and more tumors as surrogates to predict outcomes. Other groups developed indices incorporating biological variables and dynamic markers of response to locoregional treatment. These expanded selection criteria achieved satisfactory results with limited liver supplies. In addition, a number of prognostic models have been developed using clinicopathological characteristics, imaging radiomics features, genetic data, and advanced techniques such as artificial intelligence. These models could improve prognostic estimation, establish surveillance strategies, and bolster long-term outcomes in patients with HCC. In this study, we reviewed the latest findings and achievements regarding the selection criteria and post-transplant prognostic models for LT in patients with HCC.
5.Criteria and prognostic models for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing liver transplantation
Meng SHA ; Jun WANG ; Jie CAO ; Zhi-Hui ZOU ; Xiao-ye QU ; Zhi-feng XI ; Chuan SHEN ; Ying TONG ; Jian-jun ZHANG ; Seogsong JEONG ; Qiang XIA
Clinical and Molecular Hepatology 2025;31(Suppl):S285-S300
Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a leading cause of cancer-associated death globally. Liver transplantation (LT) has emerged as a key treatment for patients with HCC, and the Milan criteria have been adopted as the cornerstone of the selection policy. To allow more patients to benefit from LT, a number of expanded criteria have been proposed, many of which use radiologic morphological characteristics with larger and more tumors as surrogates to predict outcomes. Other groups developed indices incorporating biological variables and dynamic markers of response to locoregional treatment. These expanded selection criteria achieved satisfactory results with limited liver supplies. In addition, a number of prognostic models have been developed using clinicopathological characteristics, imaging radiomics features, genetic data, and advanced techniques such as artificial intelligence. These models could improve prognostic estimation, establish surveillance strategies, and bolster long-term outcomes in patients with HCC. In this study, we reviewed the latest findings and achievements regarding the selection criteria and post-transplant prognostic models for LT in patients with HCC.
6.Criteria and prognostic models for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing liver transplantation
Meng SHA ; Jun WANG ; Jie CAO ; Zhi-Hui ZOU ; Xiao-ye QU ; Zhi-feng XI ; Chuan SHEN ; Ying TONG ; Jian-jun ZHANG ; Seogsong JEONG ; Qiang XIA
Clinical and Molecular Hepatology 2025;31(Suppl):S285-S300
Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a leading cause of cancer-associated death globally. Liver transplantation (LT) has emerged as a key treatment for patients with HCC, and the Milan criteria have been adopted as the cornerstone of the selection policy. To allow more patients to benefit from LT, a number of expanded criteria have been proposed, many of which use radiologic morphological characteristics with larger and more tumors as surrogates to predict outcomes. Other groups developed indices incorporating biological variables and dynamic markers of response to locoregional treatment. These expanded selection criteria achieved satisfactory results with limited liver supplies. In addition, a number of prognostic models have been developed using clinicopathological characteristics, imaging radiomics features, genetic data, and advanced techniques such as artificial intelligence. These models could improve prognostic estimation, establish surveillance strategies, and bolster long-term outcomes in patients with HCC. In this study, we reviewed the latest findings and achievements regarding the selection criteria and post-transplant prognostic models for LT in patients with HCC.
7.National bloodstream infection bacterial resistance surveillance report 2023: Gram-positive bacteria
Chaoqun YING ; Jinru JI ; Zhiying LIU ; Qing YANG ; Haishen KONG ; Jiangqin SONG ; Hui DING ; Yanyan LI ; Yuanyuan DAI ; Haifeng MAO ; Pengpeng TIAN ; Lu WANG ; Yongyun LIU ; Yizheng ZHOU ; Jiliang WANG ; Yan JIN ; Donghong HUANG ; Hongyun XU ; Peng ZHANG ; Xinhua QIANG ; Hong HE ; Lin ZHENG ; Junmin CAO ; Zhou LIU ; Ying HUANG ; Yan GENG ; Haiquan KANG ; Dan LIU ; Guolin LIAO ; Lixia ZHANG ; Fenghong CHEN ; Yanhong LI ; Baohua ZHANG ; Haixin DONG ; Xiaoyan LI ; Donghua LIU ; Qiuying ZHANG ; Xuefei HU ; Liang GUO ; Sijin MAN ; Dijing SONG ; Rong XU ; Youdong YIN ; Kunpeng LIANG ; Aiyun LI ; Zhuo LI ; Hongxia HU ; Guoping LU ; Jinhua LIANG ; Qiang LIU ; Yinqiao DONG ; Jilu SHEN ; Shuyan HU ; Liang LUAN ; Jian LI ; Ling MENG ; Dengyan QIAO ; Xiusan XIA ; Bo QUAN ; Dahong WANG ; Chunhua HAN ; Xiaoping YAN ; Fei LI ; Shifu WANG ; Ping SHEN ; Yunbo CHEN ; Yonghong XIAO
Chinese Journal of Clinical Infectious Diseases 2025;18(2):118-132
Objective:To report the nationwide surveillance results of pathogenic profiles and antimicrobial resistance patterns of Gram-positive bloodstream infections in China in 2023.Methods:The clinical isolates of Gram-posttive bacteria from blood cultures were collected in member hospitals of National Bloodstream Infection Bacterial Resistant Investigation Collaborative System(BRICS)during January to December 2023. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing was performed using the dilution method recommended by the Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute(CLSI). Statistical analyses were conducted using WHONET 5.6 and SPSS 25.0 software.Results:A total of 4 385 Gram-positive bacterial isolates were obtained from 60 participating center. The top five pathogens were Staphylococcus aureus( n=1 544,35.2%),coagulase-negative Staphylococci( n=1 441,32.9%), Enterococcus faecium( n=574,13.1%), Enterococcus faecalis( n=385,8.8%),and α-hemolytic Streptococci( n=187,4.3%). The prevalence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus(MRSA)and methicillin-resistant coagulase-negative Staphylococci(MRCNS)was 26.2%(405/1 544)and 69.8%(1 006/1 441),respectively. Notably,all Staphylococci remained susceptible to glycopeptide or daptomycin. Staphylococcus aureus demonstrated excellent susceptibility(>97.0%)to cephalobiol,rifampicin,trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole,linezolid,minocycline,tigecycline,and eravacycline. No Enterococcus exhibiting resistance to linezolid were detected. Glycopeptide resistance was uncommon but more frequent in Enterococcus faecium(resistance to vancomycin and teicoplanin:both 1.7%)compared to Enterococcus faecalis(both 0.3%). The detection rates of MRSA and MRCNS exhibited significant regional variations across the country( χ2=17.674 and 148.650,respectively,both P<0.001). No vancomycin-resistant Enterococci were detected in central China. Institutional comparison demonstrated higher prevalence of MRSA( χ2=14.111, P<0.001)and MRCNS( χ2=4.828, P=0.028)in provincial hospitals than that in municipal hospitals. Socioeconomic analysis identified elevated detection rates of both MRSA( χ2=18.986, P<0.001)and MRCNS( χ2=4.477, P=0.034)in less developed regions(per capita GDP
8.National bloodstream infection bacterial resistance surveillance report (2023) : Gram-negative bacteria
Jinru JI ; Zhiying LIU ; Chaoqun YING ; Qing YANG ; Haishen KONG ; Jiangqin SONG ; Hui DING ; Yanyan LI ; Yuanyuan DAI ; Haifeng MAO ; Pengpeng TIAN ; Lu WANG ; Yongyun LIU ; Yizheng ZHOU ; Jiliang WANG ; Yan JIN ; Donghong HUANG ; Hongyun XU ; Peng ZHANG ; Xinhua QIANG ; Hong HE ; Lin ZHENG ; Junmin CAO ; Zhou LIU ; Ying HUANG ; Yan GENG ; Haiquan KANG ; Dan LIU ; Guolin LIAO ; Lixia ZHANG ; Fenghong CHEN ; Yanhong LI ; Baohua ZHANG ; Haixin DONG ; Xiaoyan LI ; Donghua LIU ; Qiuying ZHANG ; Xuefei HU ; Liang GUO ; Sijin MAN ; Dijing SONG ; Rong XU ; Youdong YIN ; Kunpeng LIANG ; Aiyun LI ; Zhuo LI ; Hongxia HU ; Guoping LU ; Jinhua LIANG ; Qiang LIU ; Yinqiao DONG ; Jilu SHEN ; Shuyan HU ; Liang LUAN ; Jian LI ; Ling MENG ; Dengyan QIAO ; Xiusan XIA ; Bo QUAN ; Dahong WANG ; Chunhua HAN ; Xiaoping YAN ; Fei LI ; Shifu WANG ; Ping SHEN ; Yunbo CHEN ; Yonghong XIAO
Chinese Journal of Clinical Infectious Diseases 2025;18(1):47-62
Objective:To report the results of bacterial resistant investigation collaborative system(BRICS)on the distribution and antimicrobial resistance profile of clinical Gram-negative bacteria isolates from bloodstream infections in China in 2023,and provide reference for clinical tretment of bloodstream infections and prevention and control of bacterial resistance.Methods:The clinical isolates of Gram-negative bacteria from blood cultures in member hospitals of BRICS were collected during January 2023 to December 2023. Antibiotic susceptibility tests were conducted by agar dilution or broth dilution methods recommended by Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute(CLSI). WHONET 5.6 and SPSS 25.0 were used to analyze the data.Results:During the study period,11 492 strains of Gram-negative bacteria were collected from 60 hospitals,of which 10 098(87.9%)were Enterobacterales and 1 394(12.1%)were non-fermentative bacteria. The top 5 bacterial species were Escherichia coli(50.0%), Klebsiella pneumoniae(26.1%), Pseudomonas aeruginosa(5.1%), Acinetobacter baumannii complex(5.0%)and Enterobacter cloacae complex(4.1%). The ESBL-producing rates in Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae and Proteus mirablilis were 46.8%(2 685/5 741),18.3%(549/2 999)and 44.0%(77/175),respectively. The prevalence of carbapenem-resistant Escherichia coli(CREC)and carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae(CRKP)were 1.3%(76/5 741)and 15.0%(450/2 999);32.9%(25/76)and 78.0%(351/450)of CREC and CRKP were sensitive to ceftazidime/avibactam combination,respectively. 94.7%(72/76)and 90.2%(406/450)of CREC and CRKP were sensitive to aztreonam/avibactam combination. Furthermore,57.9%(44/76)and 79.1%(356/450)were sensitive to imipenem/relebactam combination. The prevalence of carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii(CRAB)complex was 64.6%(370/573),while more than 80.0% of CRAB complex was sensitive to tigecycline,eravacycline and polymyxin B. The prevalence of carbapenem-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa(CRPA)was 17.0%(99/581). There were differences in the composition ratio of Gram-negative bacteria in bloodstream infections and the prevalence of important Gram-negative bacteria resistance among different regions in China,with statistically significant differences in the prevalence of CREC,CRKP,CRPA and CRAB complex( χ2=10.6,28.6,10.8 and 19.3, P<0.05). The prevalence of ESBL-producing Escherichia coli, CREC,CRAB complex and CRKP were higher in provincial hospitals than those in municipal hospitals( χ2=12.5,9.8,12.7 and 57.8,all P<0.01). Conclusions:Gram-negative bacteria are the main pathogens causing bloodstream infections in China,and Escherichia coli is ranked in the top,while the trend of Klebsiella pneumoniae increases continuously with time. CRKP infection shows a slow upward trend,CREC infecton maintains a low prevalence level,and CRAB complex infection continues to exhibit a high prevalence rate. The composition and resistance patterns of pathogens causing bloodstream infections vary to some extent across different regions and levels of hospitals in China.
9.Characteristics, microbial composition, and mycotoxin profile of fermented traditional Chinese medicines.
Hui-Ru ZHANG ; Meng-Yue GUO ; Jian-Xin LYU ; Wan-Xuan ZHU ; Chuang WANG ; Xin-Xin KANG ; Jiao-Yang LUO ; Mei-Hua YANG
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(1):48-57
Fermented traditional Chinese medicine(TCM) has a long history of medicinal use, such as Sojae Semen Praeparatum, Arisaema Cum Bile, Pinelliae Rhizoma Fermentata, red yeast rice, and Jianqu. Fermentation technology was recorded in the earliest TCM work, Shen Nong's Classic of the Materia Medica. Microorganisms are essential components of the fermentation process. However, the contamination of fermented TCM by toxigenic fungi and mycotoxins due to unstandardized fermentation processes seriously affects the quality of TCM and poses a threat to the life and health of consumers. In this paper, the characteristics, microbial composition, and mycotoxin profile of fermented TCM are systematically summarized to provide a theoretical basis for its quality and safety control.
Fermentation
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Mycotoxins/analysis*
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Drugs, Chinese Herbal/analysis*
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Fungi/classification*
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Bacteria/genetics*
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Drug Contamination
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Medicine, Chinese Traditional
10.Optimization of extraction process for Shenxiong Huanglian Jiedu Granules based on AHP-CRITIC hybrid weighting method, grey correlation analysis, and BP-ANN.
Zi-An LI ; De-Wen LIU ; Xin-Jian LI ; Bing-Yu WU ; Qun LAN ; Meng-Jia GUO ; Jia-Hui SUN ; Nan-Yang LIU ; Hui PEI ; Hao LI ; Hong YI ; Jin-Yu WANG ; Liang-Mian CHEN
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(10):2674-2683
By employing the analytic hierarchy process(AHP), the CRITIC method(a weight determination method based on indicator correlations), and the AHP-CRITIC hybrid weighting method, the weight coefficients of evaluation indicators were determined, followed by a comprehensive score comparison. The grey correlation analysis was then performed to analyze the results calculated using the hybrid weighting method. Subsequently, a backpropagation-artificial neural network(BP-ANN) model was constructed to predict the extraction process parameters and optimize the extraction process for Shenxiong Huanglian Jiedu Granules(SHJG). In the extraction process, an L_9(3~4) orthogonal experiment was designed to optimize three factors at three levels, including extraction frequency, water addition amount, and extraction time. The evaluation indicators included geniposide, berberine, ginsenoside Rg_1 + Re, ginsenoside Rb_1, ferulic acid, and extract yield. Finally, the optimal extraction results obtained by the orthogonal experiment, grey correlation analysis, and BP-ANN method were compared, and validation experiments were conducted. The results showed that the optimal extraction process involved two rounds of aqueous extraction, each lasting one hour; the first extraction used ten times the amount of added water, while the second extraction used eight times the amount. In the validation experiments, the average content of each indicator component was higher than the average content obtained in the orthogonal experiment, with a higher comprehensive score. The optimized extraction process parameters were reliable and stable, making them suitable for subsequent preparation process research.
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/analysis*
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Neural Networks, Computer

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