1.Application of optimized combination prediction model in the prediction of hand, foot and mouth disease
Weijie TIAN ; Qian GAO ; Kun YANG ; Zhirong ZHAO ; Jian CHEN
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2026;37(1):58-62
Objective To explore scientific and accurate prediction methods for the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in the post-pandemic era, and to address modeling challenges caused by abnormal fluctuations in case numbers from 2020 to 2023. Methods The seasonal index was used to pre-process the data. The traditional seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, singular spectrum analysis (SSA)-ARIMA model, ARIMA-Long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model were used to fit the incidence from 2013 to 2023, and the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in 2024 was predicted. The real data collected in 2024 were used as the test set to compare the prediction performance of the models. Results The fitting performance of the constructed models was as follows: the ARIMA model had MAE=107.50 and RMSE=144.53, the SSA-ARIMA model showed MAE=2.84 and RMSE=4.33, the ARIMA-LSTM model achieved MAE=99.46 and RMSE=131.59, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model had MAE=96.35 and RMSE=132.13. In terms of prediction performance, the ARIMA model resulted in MAE=151.64 and RMSE=146.70, the SSA-ARIMA model demonstrated MAE=41.22 and RMSE=57.01, the ARIMA-LSTM model yielded MAE=220.75 and RMSE=257.89, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model recorded MAE=58.83 and RMSE=72.06. Conclusion The SSA-ARIMA model has the best fitting degree and the highest prediction accuracy, and is suitable for predicting the incidence trend of hand, foot and mouth disease.
2.Overcoming organ shortage: key clinical application technology breakthroughs and future prospects in xenogeneic organ transplantation
Junze CHEN ; Cheng ZHANG ; Yongyuan JIAN ; Kun DONG ; Shuaijun MA ; Chunqiang DONG
Organ Transplantation 2026;17(3):393-404
The technology of xenogeneic organ transplantation, as one of the core strategies to address the current contradiction between the supply and demand of transplant organs, has achieved significant breakthroughs from basic research to clinical application driven by factors such as the innovation of gene modification technology, the injection of research capital and the expansion of clinical trials, especially with the first actual clinical application of a pig heart-to-human transplant. China is also at the forefront of this field. This article intends to summarize the international research trends of xenogeneic organ transplantation (including financial support, the evolution of research stages and global clinical trial cases), and analyze the evolution and optimization of xenogeneic transplantation immunosuppression schemes, as well as the breakthroughs and unresolved scientific issues in current key clinical application technologies. The aim is to comprehensively present the progress of this field from basic research to clinical transformation, and provide references for promoting the rapid development of China's xenogeneic transplantation technology and subsequent clinical transformation and research directions.
3.Effect of systemic immune index on myocardial infarction events in elderly patients with coronary heart disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus
Congying WANG ; Kun CHEN ; Lili WANG ; Shuxia CHEN ; Jian GU
Chinese Journal of Geriatric Heart Brain and Vessel Diseases 2025;27(3):280-284
Objective To investigate the correlation of SII with occurrence of short-term MI in eld-erly patients with CHD complicated with T2DM.Methods A total of 382 CHD patients with con-comitant T2DM admitted in our hospital from January 2022 to January 2023 were enrolled,and according to occurrence of MI within 1 year,they were divided into a MI group(83 patients)and a non-MI group(299 patients).Clinical data were collected,and multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine the risk factors for MI in the patients.ROC curve was plotted to evaluate the predictive value of SII,fasting blood glucose(FPG)and their combination for 1-year MI occurrence.Kaplan-Meier curve was drawn to analyze the relationship between SII and MI.Results Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that SII,FPG and peripheral atheroscle-rosis were risk factors for MI occurrence(OR=1.001,95%CI:1.000-1.001,P=0.001;OR=1.106,95%CI:1.016-1.203,P=0.020;OR=4.798,95%CI:2.621-8.786,P=0.000),and GLP-1RA and SGLT2i were protective factors for the occurrence(OR=0.255,95%CI:0.073-0.895,P=0.033;OR=0.474,95%CI:0.270-0.834,P=0.010).ROC curve analysis indicated showed that the AUC value of SII,FPG and their combination was 0.675,0.619 and 0.702,respectively,and the predictive performance was better in the combination than the indicator alone(P<0.01).Kaplan-Meier curve analysis revealed that the cumulative survival rate in the high-level group was significantly lower than that in the low-level group(Plog rank<0.01).Conclusion For the elderly T2DM patients with concomitant CHD,SII,FPG and atherosclerosis are independ-ent risk factors for MI occurrence.SII and FPG have certain predictive value for the occurrence.
4.Efficacy and safety of a facilitated percutaneous coronary intervention with half-dose recombinant staphylokinase in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction
Tian-yu WU ; Wen-hao ZHANG ; Peng-sheng CHEN ; Chen LI ; Tian WU ; Zhan LÜ ; Tong WANG ; Kun LIU ; Zhi-wen TAO ; Xiao-xuan GONG ; Liang YUAN ; Yong LI ; Bo CHEN ; Xin CHEN ; Zeng-guang CHEN ; Nai-quan YANG ; Yuan-yuan SANG ; Xiao-yan WANG ; Bai-hong LI ; Li ZHU ; Guo-yu WANG ; Xin ZHAO ; Chuan LU ; Jun JIANG ; Rui-na HAO ; Chun-jian LI
Chinese Journal of Interventional Cardiology 2025;33(8):431-438
Objective To investigate the clinical efficacy and safety of facilitated percutaneous coronary intervention(PCI)with half-dose recombinant staphylokinase(r-SAK)in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction(STEMI)who are expected to undergo PCI within 120 minutes.Methods From October 2021 to August 2022,a total of 200 STEMI patients in eight centers were included and randomly assigned in a 1﹕1 ratio to either r-SAK group or control group.Patients received loading doses of aspirin and ticagrelor and intravenous heparin and were randomized to receive an intravenous bolus of either 5 mg r-SAK or normal saline prior to PCI.The outcomes were set as ST-segment resolution(STR)at 60-90 minutes after PCI,the proportion and transition of pathological Q waves on the 5th day after PCI,and the proportion of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T(hs-cTnT)peaking within 12 hours of onset.The safety outcome was major bleeding events defined as Bleeding Academic Research Consortium(BARC)≥type 3 bleeding during hospitalization.Results Compared with the control group,the r-SAK group had a higher proportion of STR≥70%within 60-90 minutes after PCI(58.3%vs.40.3%,P=0.009);a lower proportion of pathological Q waves(59.1%vs.74.1%,P=0.040);a lower rate of Q wave progression(14.8%vs.43.2%,P<0.001);a higher rate of Q wave disappearance(12.5%vs.3.7%,P=0.027);and a higher proportion of hs-cTnT peaking within 12 hours of symptom onset[31/40(77.5%)vs.17/33(51.5%),P=0.027].Regarding the safety outcome,no significant difference in BARC≥type 3 bleeding was found between the two groups during hospitalization(P>0.05).Conclusions For STEMI patients who were expected to undergo primary PCI within 120 minutes of symptom onset,the facilitated PCI with half-dose r-SAK significantly increased the proportion of STR≥70%at 60-90 minutes after PCI,reduced the formation of pathological Q waves,and shortened the time to peak hs-cTnT,without increasing the risk of bleeding,which should be an alternative reperfusion strategy worthy of further study.
5.Efficacy and safety of a facilitated percutaneous coronary intervention with half-dose recombinant staphylokinase in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction
Tian-yu WU ; Wen-hao ZHANG ; Peng-sheng CHEN ; Chen LI ; Tian WU ; Zhan LÜ ; Tong WANG ; Kun LIU ; Zhi-wen TAO ; Xiao-xuan GONG ; Liang YUAN ; Yong LI ; Bo CHEN ; Xin CHEN ; Zeng-guang CHEN ; Nai-quan YANG ; Yuan-yuan SANG ; Xiao-yan WANG ; Bai-hong LI ; Li ZHU ; Guo-yu WANG ; Xin ZHAO ; Chuan LU ; Jun JIANG ; Rui-na HAO ; Chun-jian LI
Chinese Journal of Interventional Cardiology 2025;33(8):431-438
Objective To investigate the clinical efficacy and safety of facilitated percutaneous coronary intervention(PCI)with half-dose recombinant staphylokinase(r-SAK)in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction(STEMI)who are expected to undergo PCI within 120 minutes.Methods From October 2021 to August 2022,a total of 200 STEMI patients in eight centers were included and randomly assigned in a 1﹕1 ratio to either r-SAK group or control group.Patients received loading doses of aspirin and ticagrelor and intravenous heparin and were randomized to receive an intravenous bolus of either 5 mg r-SAK or normal saline prior to PCI.The outcomes were set as ST-segment resolution(STR)at 60-90 minutes after PCI,the proportion and transition of pathological Q waves on the 5th day after PCI,and the proportion of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T(hs-cTnT)peaking within 12 hours of onset.The safety outcome was major bleeding events defined as Bleeding Academic Research Consortium(BARC)≥type 3 bleeding during hospitalization.Results Compared with the control group,the r-SAK group had a higher proportion of STR≥70%within 60-90 minutes after PCI(58.3%vs.40.3%,P=0.009);a lower proportion of pathological Q waves(59.1%vs.74.1%,P=0.040);a lower rate of Q wave progression(14.8%vs.43.2%,P<0.001);a higher rate of Q wave disappearance(12.5%vs.3.7%,P=0.027);and a higher proportion of hs-cTnT peaking within 12 hours of symptom onset[31/40(77.5%)vs.17/33(51.5%),P=0.027].Regarding the safety outcome,no significant difference in BARC≥type 3 bleeding was found between the two groups during hospitalization(P>0.05).Conclusions For STEMI patients who were expected to undergo primary PCI within 120 minutes of symptom onset,the facilitated PCI with half-dose r-SAK significantly increased the proportion of STR≥70%at 60-90 minutes after PCI,reduced the formation of pathological Q waves,and shortened the time to peak hs-cTnT,without increasing the risk of bleeding,which should be an alternative reperfusion strategy worthy of further study.
6.The novel compound Austocystin R induces cycle arrest and autophagy in triple-negative breast cancer cells by regulating PI3K/AKT/mTOR signaling pathway
Xin-yue GONG ; Min WEI ; Xiao-qin YU ; Yun-lei XU ; Yi-fan BAI ; Cheng-xiong LIU ; Fan CHENG ; Kun ZOU ; Jian-feng CHEN
Chinese Pharmacological Bulletin 2025;41(9):1651-1658
Aim To explore the in vitro anti-human triple-negative breast cancer(TNBC)effect and mech-anism of Austocystin R.Methods MTT assay was used to evaluate the anti-tumor potential of Austocystin R for various human tumor cells and normal cells.Flow cytometry was employed to evaluate the influence on cell cycle progression.mRFP-GFP-LC3 adenovirus transfection was used to evaluate the autophagic flux process.Western blot assay was used to verify the effect of Austocystin R on the expression of related pro-teins.Results The results showed that Austocystin R significantly inhibited the proliferation of multiple tumor cells in a dose-dependent manner,especially for the MDA-MB-231 cells with an IC50 of 1.45μmol·L-1.In addition,Austocystin R increased the protein expression of PTEN,p53,p-p53,p27,p21,and down-regulated the expression of p-PI3K,p-AKT and p-mTOR.Austocystin R can significantly increase the proportion of S-phase MDA-MB-231 cells,inhibit the expression of Cyclin D1,CDK4,CDK6,Rb,Cyclin B1 and CDK1,and promote the expression of Cyclin E1 and CDK2.Austocystin R can promote the autophagic flux process of MDA-MB-231 cells,promote the expres-sion of LC3 Ⅰ/Ⅱ,p-Beclin-1,p-ULK1,HMGB-1 and Atg 14 proteins,and inhibit the expression of Beclin-1,ULK1,p62,ATG 3,ATG 4B,ATG 5,ATG 7,ATG 12,ATG 13 and ATG 16L1 proteins.Conclusion Austo-cystin R can exhibit its anti-TNBC activity by inhibi-ting the PI3K/AKT/mTOR signaling pathway,blocking the cell cycle at the S phase and inducing autophagic cell death.
7.The novel compound Austocystin R induces cycle arrest and autophagy in triple-negative breast cancer cells by regulating PI3K/AKT/mTOR signaling pathway
Xin-yue GONG ; Min WEI ; Xiao-qin YU ; Yun-lei XU ; Yi-fan BAI ; Cheng-xiong LIU ; Fan CHENG ; Kun ZOU ; Jian-feng CHEN
Chinese Pharmacological Bulletin 2025;41(9):1651-1658
Aim To explore the in vitro anti-human triple-negative breast cancer(TNBC)effect and mech-anism of Austocystin R.Methods MTT assay was used to evaluate the anti-tumor potential of Austocystin R for various human tumor cells and normal cells.Flow cytometry was employed to evaluate the influence on cell cycle progression.mRFP-GFP-LC3 adenovirus transfection was used to evaluate the autophagic flux process.Western blot assay was used to verify the effect of Austocystin R on the expression of related pro-teins.Results The results showed that Austocystin R significantly inhibited the proliferation of multiple tumor cells in a dose-dependent manner,especially for the MDA-MB-231 cells with an IC50 of 1.45μmol·L-1.In addition,Austocystin R increased the protein expression of PTEN,p53,p-p53,p27,p21,and down-regulated the expression of p-PI3K,p-AKT and p-mTOR.Austocystin R can significantly increase the proportion of S-phase MDA-MB-231 cells,inhibit the expression of Cyclin D1,CDK4,CDK6,Rb,Cyclin B1 and CDK1,and promote the expression of Cyclin E1 and CDK2.Austocystin R can promote the autophagic flux process of MDA-MB-231 cells,promote the expres-sion of LC3 Ⅰ/Ⅱ,p-Beclin-1,p-ULK1,HMGB-1 and Atg 14 proteins,and inhibit the expression of Beclin-1,ULK1,p62,ATG 3,ATG 4B,ATG 5,ATG 7,ATG 12,ATG 13 and ATG 16L1 proteins.Conclusion Austo-cystin R can exhibit its anti-TNBC activity by inhibi-ting the PI3K/AKT/mTOR signaling pathway,blocking the cell cycle at the S phase and inducing autophagic cell death.
8.Construction and evaluation of a predictive model for the occurrence of major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with coronary heart disease combined with type 2 diabetes mellitus based on a prognostic nutritional index
Kun CHEN ; Hui AN ; Peng QI ; Shuxia CHEN ; Jian GU
Chinese Journal of Arteriosclerosis 2025;33(2):125-134
Aim To investigate the related influencing factors of major adverse cardiovascular events(MACE)in coronary heart disease(CHD)patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM)based on prognostic nutritional index(PNI),and to construct a prediction model.Methods The clinical data of 391 patients with CHD combined with T2DM who were hospitalised in the Department of Cardiovascular Medicine of Hebei Provincial People's Hospital from Janu-ary 2022 to January 2023 were collected and followed up for 1 year,and were divided into the MACE group(n=99)and the non-MACE group(n=292)according to the presence or absence of the occurrence of MACE,and were divided into the training set(n=273)and the validation set(n=118)in a ratio of 7:3 by using the computer-generated random number method,and the patients in the training set were divided into the MACE(n=67)group and the non-MACE group(n=206)according to whether they had MACE or not.Lasso regression was used to screen the relevant influencing factors and to construct the prediction model of the column-line diagram,and the prediction model was validated by plotting receiv-er operating characteristic(ROC)curve,calibration curve,decision curve analysis(DCA),and clinical impact curve(CIC).Results Lasso regression showed that the use of angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitor(ARNI),fasting blood glucose(FBG),C-reactive protein(CRP),platelet to lymphocyte ratio(PLR),lipoprotein(a)(Lp(a)),and PNI were the predictors of the occurrence of MACE in patients with CHD combined with T2DM.A column-line graph pre-diction model was constructed and validated based on the above predictors,and the area under the ROC curve(AUC)was 0.838(95%CI:0.778~0.898)in the training set and0.872(95%CI:0.803~0.942)in the validation set,with a good discriminatory degree of the model,and the C-values of the calibration curves in the training set and the validation set were 0.838 and 0.872,respectively,with good fit.The results of the decision curve analysis and the clinical impact curve showed that the column-line graph prediction model had a higher net yield of MACE in patients with CHD combined with T2DM,with high clinical utility.Conclusion PNI is an influential factor in the occurrence of MACE in patients with CHD combined with T2DM,and the column-line graphical model constructed on the basis of predictors such as PNI is con-venient for clinical use and has high predictive value in predicting the occurrence of MACE in patients with CHD combined with T2DM.
9.Clinical practice guidelines for intraoperative cell salvage in patients with malignant tumors
Changtai ZHU ; Ling LI ; Zhiqiang LI ; Xinjian WAN ; Shiyao CHEN ; Jian PAN ; Yi ZHANG ; Xiang REN ; Kun HAN ; Feng ZOU ; Aiqing WEN ; Ruiming RONG ; Rong XIA ; Baohua QIAN ; Xin MA
Chinese Journal of Blood Transfusion 2025;38(2):149-167
Intraoperative cell salvage (IOCS) has been widely applied as an important blood conservation measure in surgical operations. However, there is currently a lack of clinical practice guidelines for the implementation of IOCS in patients with malignant tumors. This report aims to provide clinicians with recommendations on the use of IOCS in patients with malignant tumors based on the review and assessment of the existed evidence. Data were derived from databases such as PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Library and Wanfang. The guideline development team formulated recommendations based on the quality of evidence, balance of benefits and harms, patient preferences, and health economic assessments. This study constructed seven major clinical questions. The main conclusions of this guideline are as follows: 1) Compared with no perioperative allogeneic blood transfusion (NPABT), perioperative allogeneic blood transfusion (PABT) leads to a more unfavorable prognosis in cancer patients (Recommended); 2) Compared with the transfusion of allogeneic blood or no transfusion, IOCS does not lead to a more unfavorable prognosis in cancer patients (Recommended); 3) The implementation of IOCS in cancer patients is economically feasible (Recommended); 4) Leukocyte depletion filters (LDF) should be used when implementing IOCS in cancer patients (Strongly Recommended); 5) Irradiation treatment of autologous blood to be reinfused can be used when implementing IOCS in cancer patients (Recommended); 6) A careful assessment of the condition of cancer patients (meeting indications and excluding contraindications) should be conducted before implementing IOCS (Strongly Recommended); 7) Informed consent from cancer patients should be obtained when implementing IOCS, with a thorough pre-assessment of the patient's condition and the likelihood of blood loss, adherence to standardized internally audited management procedures, meeting corresponding conditions, and obtaining corresponding qualifications (Recommended). In brief, current evidence indicates that IOCS can be implemented for some malignant tumor patients who need allogeneic blood transfusion after physician full evaluation, and LDF or irradiation should be used during the implementation process.
10.Chemical constituents from Anaphalis margaritacea and their antioxidant activity
Bing-qian LIU ; Biao LI ; Jian-feng CHEN ; Xiao-qin YU ; Cheng-xiong LIU ; Kun ZOU ; Fan CHENG
Chinese Traditional Patent Medicine 2025;47(11):3651-3660
AIM To study the chemical constituents of Anaphalis margaritacea(L.)Benth.& Hook.f.and their antioxidant activities.METHODS Separation and purification were performed using silica gel,Sephadex LH-20 and semi-preparative HPLC,then the structures of obtained compounds were identified by physicochemical properties and spectral data.The antioxidant activity was determined by DPPH method and ABTS method.RESULTS Twenty-three compounds were isolated and identified as trans-tilidroside(1),4'-hydroxydehydrokawain(2),apigenin(3),3-O-kaempferol-3-O-acetyl-6-O-(p-coumamoyl)-α-D-glucopyranoside(4),kaempferol(5),quercetin-3-O-β-D-(6-O-Z-p-coumamoyl)-glucopyranoside(6),tiliroside(7),kaempferol-3-O-β-D-glucoside(8),3,5-dihydroxy-7,8-dimethoxyflavone(9),bis(2-ethylhexyl)adipate(10),3,5-dihydroxy-6,7,8-trimethoxyflavone(11),stigmasterol(12),myriophylloside B(13),1-hexadecanol(14),chlorogenic acid(15),4-hydroxy-N-{ 4-[3-(4-hydroxyphenyl)-E-acryloylamino]-butyl}-benzamide(16),3,6-dimethylpiperazine-2,5-dione(17),β-adenosine(18),5,6-dehydrokawain(19),kaempferol-3-O-(2",6"-di-O-E-p-coumaroyl)-β-D-glucopyranoside(20),kaempferol-3-O-(3"-O-E-p-coumaroyl)-(6"-O-E-feruloyl)-β-D-glucopyranoside(21),4,5-di-caffeoylquinic acid butyl ester(22),3,4-di-caffeoylquinic acid butyl ester(23).The IC50 values of compounds 1,7,22-23 against DPPH free radicals were(24.67±1.63)-(53.41±1.61)μmol/L,and the IC50 values of compounds 8,21-23 against ABTS+free radicals were(15.22±0.89)-(41.66±6.29)μmol/L.CONCLUSION Compounds 9,19-23 are isolated from genus Anaphalis for the first time,and 2,10,13,14,16,17,19-23 are first isolated from this plant.Compounds 1,7-8,21-23 have strong antioxidant activity.


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