1.Effects of Guilu Erxian Glue on gut microbiota in rats with knee osteoarthritis:machine learning and 16S rDNA analysis
Fucheng GU ; Meixin YANG ; Weixin WU ; Weijun CAI ; Yangyi QIN ; Mingyi SUN ; Jian SUN ; Qiudong GENG ; Nan LI
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2026;30(4):1058-1072
BACKGROUND:The Guilu Erxian Glue consists of Testudinis Plastrum,Cornu Cervi,Lycii Fructus,and Ginseng Radix.In earlier clinical observations,it is discovered that using Guilu Erxian Glue to treat patients with liver-kidney deficiency type knee osteoarthritis effectively alleviated knee pain,increased the range of motion,and improved walking ability.However,the exact mechanism by which oral administration of Guilu Erxian Glue can produce local therapeutic effects on the knee joint is still unclear.OBJECTIVE:To investigate the effects of Guilu Erxian Glue on gut microbiota in rats with knee osteoarthritis and to evaluate its mechanism using 16S rDNA sequencing and machine learning analysis.METHODS:Totally 18 female SD rats were randomly divided into three groups:blank group,model group,and Guilu Erxian Glue group,with 6 rats in each group.A knee osteoarthritis model was prepared using the destabilization of the medial meniscus surgical method.After successful modeling,the Guilu Erxian Glue group was given a decoction of Guilu Erxian Glue by gavage,while the blank and model groups were given an equal amount of distilled water.After 28 days of continuous intervention,high performance liquid chromatography was used to detect the active ingredients of Guilu Erxian Glue.MRI imaging was used to observe the condition of rat knee articular cartilage.Fecal samples were collected;DNA was extracted using a kit,amplified and purified by PCR,and an Illumina sequencing library was constructed.The Illumina MiSeq platform was used for high-throughput sequencing to generate raw sequence data.After obtaining the raw data,QIIME2 software was used to process the data.Linear Discriminant Analysis Effect Size analysis and random forest algorithm were used to screen for differential species in microbial data.KEGG and MetaCyc functional pathway analyses were used to explore the association between key microbial communities and experimental groups.Linear discriminant analysis effect values and random forest algorithm were used to screen for differential species.Association networks were used to analyze the interactions between microbial communities,and machine learning methods were used to analyze the composition and changes of gut microbiota.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)LC-MS component identification was conducted on the traditional Chinese medicine formula of Guilu Erxian Glue,and a total of 7 effective ingredients were identified.(2)MRI imaging showed that synovitis scope of high-density shadows in rats of the Guilu Erxian Glue group was reduced,and the degeneration of medial femoral condyle cartilage was less than that in the model group.(3)16S rDNA sequencing showed that the model group rats exhibited significant microbial imbalance,with a significant decrease in the abundance of Firmicutes and Bacteroidetes at the phylum level,while the proportion of Proteobacteria increased significantly(P<0.05).The gut microbiota structure of rats in the Guilu Erxian Glue group was significantly improved,and the proportion of Firmicutes and Bacteroidetes increased,restoring a more diverse microbiota composition,approaching that of the blank group(P<0.05).(4)KEGG and MetaCyc functional pathway analysis showed that the Guilu Erxian Glue group significantly activated multiple metabolic pathways,including amino acid metabolism,lipid metabolism,and biotin synthesis pathways(P<0.05).(5)The results indicate that Guilu Erxian Glue contains seven active ingredients,and the changes in gut microbiota of knee osteoarthritis rats were analyzed using 16S rDNA sequencing.Guilu Erxian Glue can significantly improve the imbalance of gut microbiota,restore the abundance of beneficial bacteria,and have a significant impact on the composition of gut microbiota,providing scientific basis for the efficacy and mechanism of Guilu Erxian Glue.
2.Predictive model for severe adverse reaction associated with bevacizumab based on the global trigger tool and machine learning
Yongfei FU ; Xin LONG ; Hongzhen XU ; Jian TANG ; Xiangqing LI ; Yucheng LONG ; Dong QIN
China Pharmacy 2026;37(4):497-503
OBJECTIVE To confirm trigger items for adverse drug reaction (ADR) induced by bevacizumab, to identify and analyze the occurrence of related ADR, and to establish a predictive model for severe adverse reaction (SAR) caused by this drug. METHODS Based on the global trigger tool (GTT) theory, and referencing the GTT White Paper, drug package inserts and relevant literature, trigger items for bevacizumab-related ADR were confirmed using a single-round Delphi method. Utilizing these established items, electronic medical records of relevant patients at Guilin People’s Hospital from January 2020 to September 2024 were actively screened via the China Hospital Pharmacovigilance System. Pharmacists then identified and tallied the occurrence of bevacizumab-induced ADR. Data from patients with any positive trigger item served as the study subjects (divided into training and test sets at a ratio of 7∶3), candidate feature variables were selected from 39 related variables using the Boruta algorithm, and the multivariable Logistic regression analysis was performed with the occurrence of SAR as the dependent variable. Based on these candidate features, Logistic Regression, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Light Gradient Boosting Machine, Random Forest, and Categorical Boosting models were constructed. Model performance was evaluated using metrics including the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic curve and recall rate. The Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method was applied to analyze and interpret the contribution of each variable. A nomogram was constructed based on the optimal model. RESULTS A total of 38 trigger items for active monitoring of bevacizumab-related ADR were determined, comprising 17 laboratory indicators, 13 clinical manifestations, and 8 intervention measures. In total, 483 patients with positive trigger items were included, and 318 patients with bevacizumab-induced ADR were identified, including 83 SARs. The positive predictive values for the trigger items and cases were 43.57% (708/1 625) and 63.84% (318/483), respectively. Bevacizumab-induced ADR involved 7 systems/organs, with the hematological system being the most frequently involved (64.15%). The Boruta algorithm selected 7 vari ables: serum potassium, hematocrit, albumin-to-globulin ratio, prealbumin, hypertension history, age and red blood cell count. Multivariable Logistic regression showed that elevated serum potassium levels were associated with a decreased risk of bevacizumab-induced SAR (OR=0.234, P =0.002), while a history of hypertension (OR=2.642, P =0.006) and increased age (OR=1.040, P =0.025) were associated with an increased risk. The Logistic Regression model demonstrated superior performance with higher AUC, F1 score and recall rate (0.761, 0.447, 0.607), compared to other models. SHAP evaluation results indicated that variables such as serum potassium, hematocrit, and age ranked highest in importance. CONCLUSIONS Totally 38 trigger entries have been successfully identified for active screening of bevacizumab-related ADR. Elevated serum potassium levels are a protective factor against bevacizumab-induced SAR, whereas the hypertension history and increased age are risk factors. The Logistic Regression model is the optimal predictive model.
3.Exploring Mechanism of Xiaoqinglongtang Against High Altitude Pulmonary Edema Based on Integrative Pharmacology Model
Rongrong WANG ; Chuchu WANG ; Qi XU ; Qin JIAN ; Junzhi LIN ; Ruli LI ; Chuan ZHENG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(8):137-148
ObjectiveTo explore the potential mechanism of Xiaoqinglongtang(XQL) in the prevention and treatment of high altitude pulmonary edema(HAPE) by network pharmacology, molecular docking, and molecular dynamics simulation, and to verify it by in vivo animal model. MethodsIn this study, the active ingredients, drug targets, and HAPE-related targets of XQL were collected from BATMAN-TCM, GeneCards, and Online Mendelian Inheritance in Man(OMIM) databases. The protein-protein interaction(PPI) network was constructed by using intersection targets, and the core targets were screened and visualized by Cytoscape software. Functional annotation and pathway analysis of the intersection targets were performed by gene ontology (GO) and Kyoto encyclopedia of genes and genomes (KEGG) functional enrichment. AutoDock and GROMACS were used to evaluate the binding ability of active ingredients to key targets. In the experimental verification part, a mouse model of HAPE induced by hypobaric hypoxia(simulated 6 000 m altitude for 48 h) was established. The control effect was evaluated by hematoxylin-eosin(HE) staining, lung tissue water content, lung tissue wet/dry weight ratio, real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction(Real-time PCR) detection of gene expression levels, and immunohistochemistry and Western blot detection of key protein expression. ResultsA total of 355 active ingredients of XQL, 2 142 targets, 716 HAPE-related targets, and 236 intersection targets were obtained by network pharmacology analysis. Key core targets such as interleukin (IL)-6, tumor necrosis factor (TNF), protein kinase B1 (Akt1), and hypoxia-inducible factor-1α (HIF-1α) were screened. The results of GO analysis of common targets involved 738 biological processes(BP), 72 cellular components(CC), and 135 molecular functions(MF). KEGG analysis effectively enriched two important signaling pathways: Phosphoinositol 3-kinase (PI3K)/Akt and HIF-1α. The results of molecular docking and molecular dynamics simulation showed that the screened active ingredients had good binding ability with key targets. In the HAPE model induced by hypobaric hypoxia(6 000 m, 48 h), the lung tissue water content, lung tissue wet/dry weight ratio, and pathological injury score of the model group were significantly increased(P<0.01), accompanied by exudation of a large number of red blood cells in the alveoli and alveolar interstitium, a significant increase in inflammatory cells, a significant widening of the alveolar septum, and mutual fusion between the alveoli. The XQL administration group significantly improved the above pathological changes(P<0.01). The results of inflammatory factor expression showed that compared with the control group, the model group showed significantly up-regulated expression of TNF-α, IL-6, and IL-1β in the lung tissue(P<0.01). Compared with the model group, the XQL administration group had significantly decreased expression of inflammatory factors(P<0.05, P<0.01). The mRNA expression of key pathway related genes PI3K, Akt1, mammalian target of rapamycin(mTOR), and HIF-1α was significantly increased in the model group(P<0.01), and decreased in a concentration-dependent manner after XQL administration(P<0.05, P<0.01). The expression levels of key proteins PI3K, phosphorylation(p)-PI3K, Akt1, p-Akt1, mTOR, p-mTOR, and HIF-1α in lung tissue were analyzed by immunohistochemistry and Western blot. Compared with the blank group, the model group showed increased expression of key proteins(P<0.05, P<0.01). Compared with the model group, the XQL administration group exhibited decreased expression of key proteins(P<0.05, P<0.01). ConclusionXQL can reduce lung inflammation and improve HAPE. The mechanism may be related to the regulation of PI3K/Akt/mTOR and HIF-1α pathways. This study provides a new idea and a theoretical basis for the treatment of HAPE with XQL.
4.Exploring Mechanism of Xiaoqinglongtang Against High Altitude Pulmonary Edema Based on Integrative Pharmacology Model
Rongrong WANG ; Chuchu WANG ; Qi XU ; Qin JIAN ; Junzhi LIN ; Ruli LI ; Chuan ZHENG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(8):137-148
ObjectiveTo explore the potential mechanism of Xiaoqinglongtang(XQL) in the prevention and treatment of high altitude pulmonary edema(HAPE) by network pharmacology, molecular docking, and molecular dynamics simulation, and to verify it by in vivo animal model. MethodsIn this study, the active ingredients, drug targets, and HAPE-related targets of XQL were collected from BATMAN-TCM, GeneCards, and Online Mendelian Inheritance in Man(OMIM) databases. The protein-protein interaction(PPI) network was constructed by using intersection targets, and the core targets were screened and visualized by Cytoscape software. Functional annotation and pathway analysis of the intersection targets were performed by gene ontology (GO) and Kyoto encyclopedia of genes and genomes (KEGG) functional enrichment. AutoDock and GROMACS were used to evaluate the binding ability of active ingredients to key targets. In the experimental verification part, a mouse model of HAPE induced by hypobaric hypoxia(simulated 6 000 m altitude for 48 h) was established. The control effect was evaluated by hematoxylin-eosin(HE) staining, lung tissue water content, lung tissue wet/dry weight ratio, real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction(Real-time PCR) detection of gene expression levels, and immunohistochemistry and Western blot detection of key protein expression. ResultsA total of 355 active ingredients of XQL, 2 142 targets, 716 HAPE-related targets, and 236 intersection targets were obtained by network pharmacology analysis. Key core targets such as interleukin (IL)-6, tumor necrosis factor (TNF), protein kinase B1 (Akt1), and hypoxia-inducible factor-1α (HIF-1α) were screened. The results of GO analysis of common targets involved 738 biological processes(BP), 72 cellular components(CC), and 135 molecular functions(MF). KEGG analysis effectively enriched two important signaling pathways: Phosphoinositol 3-kinase (PI3K)/Akt and HIF-1α. The results of molecular docking and molecular dynamics simulation showed that the screened active ingredients had good binding ability with key targets. In the HAPE model induced by hypobaric hypoxia(6 000 m, 48 h), the lung tissue water content, lung tissue wet/dry weight ratio, and pathological injury score of the model group were significantly increased(P<0.01), accompanied by exudation of a large number of red blood cells in the alveoli and alveolar interstitium, a significant increase in inflammatory cells, a significant widening of the alveolar septum, and mutual fusion between the alveoli. The XQL administration group significantly improved the above pathological changes(P<0.01). The results of inflammatory factor expression showed that compared with the control group, the model group showed significantly up-regulated expression of TNF-α, IL-6, and IL-1β in the lung tissue(P<0.01). Compared with the model group, the XQL administration group had significantly decreased expression of inflammatory factors(P<0.05, P<0.01). The mRNA expression of key pathway related genes PI3K, Akt1, mammalian target of rapamycin(mTOR), and HIF-1α was significantly increased in the model group(P<0.01), and decreased in a concentration-dependent manner after XQL administration(P<0.05, P<0.01). The expression levels of key proteins PI3K, phosphorylation(p)-PI3K, Akt1, p-Akt1, mTOR, p-mTOR, and HIF-1α in lung tissue were analyzed by immunohistochemistry and Western blot. Compared with the blank group, the model group showed increased expression of key proteins(P<0.05, P<0.01). Compared with the model group, the XQL administration group exhibited decreased expression of key proteins(P<0.05, P<0.01). ConclusionXQL can reduce lung inflammation and improve HAPE. The mechanism may be related to the regulation of PI3K/Akt/mTOR and HIF-1α pathways. This study provides a new idea and a theoretical basis for the treatment of HAPE with XQL.
5.Effects of Guilu Erxian Glue on gut microbiota in rats with knee osteoarthritis:machine learning and 16S rDNA analysis
Fucheng GU ; Meixin YANG ; Weixin WU ; Weijun CAI ; Yangyi QIN ; Mingyi SUN ; Jian SUN ; Qiudong GENG ; Nan LI
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2026;30(4):1058-1072
BACKGROUND:The Guilu Erxian Glue consists of Testudinis Plastrum,Cornu Cervi,Lycii Fructus,and Ginseng Radix.In earlier clinical observations,it is discovered that using Guilu Erxian Glue to treat patients with liver-kidney deficiency type knee osteoarthritis effectively alleviated knee pain,increased the range of motion,and improved walking ability.However,the exact mechanism by which oral administration of Guilu Erxian Glue can produce local therapeutic effects on the knee joint is still unclear.OBJECTIVE:To investigate the effects of Guilu Erxian Glue on gut microbiota in rats with knee osteoarthritis and to evaluate its mechanism using 16S rDNA sequencing and machine learning analysis.METHODS:Totally 18 female SD rats were randomly divided into three groups:blank group,model group,and Guilu Erxian Glue group,with 6 rats in each group.A knee osteoarthritis model was prepared using the destabilization of the medial meniscus surgical method.After successful modeling,the Guilu Erxian Glue group was given a decoction of Guilu Erxian Glue by gavage,while the blank and model groups were given an equal amount of distilled water.After 28 days of continuous intervention,high performance liquid chromatography was used to detect the active ingredients of Guilu Erxian Glue.MRI imaging was used to observe the condition of rat knee articular cartilage.Fecal samples were collected;DNA was extracted using a kit,amplified and purified by PCR,and an Illumina sequencing library was constructed.The Illumina MiSeq platform was used for high-throughput sequencing to generate raw sequence data.After obtaining the raw data,QIIME2 software was used to process the data.Linear Discriminant Analysis Effect Size analysis and random forest algorithm were used to screen for differential species in microbial data.KEGG and MetaCyc functional pathway analyses were used to explore the association between key microbial communities and experimental groups.Linear discriminant analysis effect values and random forest algorithm were used to screen for differential species.Association networks were used to analyze the interactions between microbial communities,and machine learning methods were used to analyze the composition and changes of gut microbiota.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)LC-MS component identification was conducted on the traditional Chinese medicine formula of Guilu Erxian Glue,and a total of 7 effective ingredients were identified.(2)MRI imaging showed that synovitis scope of high-density shadows in rats of the Guilu Erxian Glue group was reduced,and the degeneration of medial femoral condyle cartilage was less than that in the model group.(3)16S rDNA sequencing showed that the model group rats exhibited significant microbial imbalance,with a significant decrease in the abundance of Firmicutes and Bacteroidetes at the phylum level,while the proportion of Proteobacteria increased significantly(P<0.05).The gut microbiota structure of rats in the Guilu Erxian Glue group was significantly improved,and the proportion of Firmicutes and Bacteroidetes increased,restoring a more diverse microbiota composition,approaching that of the blank group(P<0.05).(4)KEGG and MetaCyc functional pathway analysis showed that the Guilu Erxian Glue group significantly activated multiple metabolic pathways,including amino acid metabolism,lipid metabolism,and biotin synthesis pathways(P<0.05).(5)The results indicate that Guilu Erxian Glue contains seven active ingredients,and the changes in gut microbiota of knee osteoarthritis rats were analyzed using 16S rDNA sequencing.Guilu Erxian Glue can significantly improve the imbalance of gut microbiota,restore the abundance of beneficial bacteria,and have a significant impact on the composition of gut microbiota,providing scientific basis for the efficacy and mechanism of Guilu Erxian Glue.
6.Ameliorative effects of Compound Fufangteng Mixture on cyclophosphamide-induced immunosuppression in mice
Li-na LIU ; Yu-fang SHEN ; Qin-qin WANG ; Lin-yu XIAO ; Jing-yu LIU ; Jun-ni MO ; Ren-yi-kun YUAN ; Hong-wei GAO ; Jian XIAO
Chinese Traditional Patent Medicine 2025;47(10):3249-3256
AIM To investigate the ameliorative effects of Compound Fufangteng Mixture(CFM)on cyclophosphamide(CTX)-induced immunosuppression in mice.METHODS Forty-eight male C57BL/6J mice were randomly divided into the blank control group,the model group,the levamisole hydrochloride group(40 mg/kg)and the low-dose,medium-dose and high-dose CFM groups(3.75,7.5,10 g/kg),with 8 mice in each group,and given respective intervention orally once daily for 14 days.On the 5th to 7th day of administration,with the blank control group given normal saline intraperitoneally,the other groups underwent intraperitoneal CTX injections(80 mg/kg).24 hours after the last administration,organ indices of thymus and spleen were calculated;splenic histopathological alterations were assessed by HE staining;serum levels of IL-2,IL-6 and IgG were quantified using ELISA;splenic CD4+,CD8+T lymphocytes,alongside CD86+and CD206+macrophages populations were analyzed by flow cytometry;and splenic expression of CD4,CD8 and F4/80 was evaluated by immunohistochemical staining.RESULTS In CTX-treated mice,CFM administration mitigated body weight loss;enhanced thymus weight and thymic index;ameliorated splenic immune cell populations,elevated serum levels of cytokines IL-2,IL-6 and IgG in serum;and upregulated splenic levels of CD45+CD3+T lymphocytes and F4/80+CD11b+macrophages,alongside increasing the expression of CD4,CD8 and F4/80 surface markers.CONCLUSION CFM alleviates CTX-induced immunosuppression state in mice by modulating immune cells,restoring immune function and enhancing anti-inflammatory and tissue repair capabilities.
7.Incremental effectiveness of two-dose of mumps-containing vaccine in chidren
Chinese Journal of School Health 2025;46(6):883-887
Objective:
To evaluate the incremental vaccine effectiveness (VE) of two dose of the mumps containing vaccine (MuCV) in chidren, so as to provide a basis for optimizing mumps immunization strategies.
Methods:
A 1∶2 frequency matched case-control study was conducted by using reported mumps cases in childcare centers or schools from Lu an, Hefei, Ma anshan and Huainan cities of Anhui Province from September 1, 2023 to June 30, 2024, as a case group(383 cases). And healthy children in the same classroom were selected as a control group(766 cases). The MuCV immunization histories of participants were collected to estimate the incremental VE of the second dose of MuCV against mumps. Group comparisons were performed using the Chi square test or t-test. For matched case-control pairs, the Cox regression model was employed to calculate the odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) for two dose MuCV vaccination and to estimate the incremental vaccine effectiveness (VE).
Results:
There were no statistically significant differences between the case and control groups regarding gender, age, dosage of MuCV vaccination and the time interval since the last dose vaccination( χ 2/t=0.05, 0.20, 0.94, -0.02, P >0.05). The proportions of the case and control groups vaccinated with two doses of MuCV were 26.63% and 29.37%, respectively, and the overall incremental VE of the second dose of MuCV was 40.73% (95% CI=3.03%-63.77%, P <0.05). Subgroup analyses revealed that the incremental VE for children with a period of ≥1 year between the two doses of MuCV was 54.13% (95% CI=1.90%-78.56%, P <0.05), while for children with a period of <1 year, it was 30.63% (95% CI=-28.59%-62.58%, P >0.05). The incremental VE of the second dose of MuCV was 30.36% (95% CI=-25.95%-61.50%, P >0.05) in kindergarten children and 66.73% (95% CI=14.92%-86.99%, P <0.05) in elementary and secondary school students. The incremental VE was 28.78% (95% CI=-27.46%-60.21%, P >0.05) within five years of the last dose of MuCV vaccination and 66.07% (95% CI=-41.56%-91.87%, P >0.05) for vaccinations administered beyond five years.
Conclusions
The second dose of MuCV may offer additional protection for children; however, extending the interval between two dose of MuCV (<1 year) has shown limited incremental protective effects. Therefore, it is crucial to consider optimizing current immunization strategies for mumps.
8.Association Between Alterations in Oral Microbiota and Progression of Esophageal Carcinogenesis
Qin WEN ; Zhaolai HUA ; Jian SUN ; Xuhua MAO ; Jianming WANG
Cancer Research on Prevention and Treatment 2025;52(7):618-624
Objective To explore the association between oral microbiota and esophageal carcinogenesis. Methods A case-control study design was employed. A total of 309 subjects were recruited, consisting of 159 healthy controls, 32 cases of esophageal basal cell hyperplasia, 32 cases of low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia, 14 cases of high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia, and 72 cases of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Tongue swab samples were collected for 16S rRNA sequencing. The α-diversity and β-diversity of the microbiota were analyzed, and the characteristics of the microbial communities at different stages of esophageal carcinogenesis were compared. The strength of the association was expressed by odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Results α-diversity analysis indicated significant differences in the observed species number (Sobs) index across various stages of esophageal cancer progression (P<0.001). After adjusting for confounding factors such as age, gender, smoking, and alcohol consumption, the Simpson index was positively correlated with carcinogenesis (P=0.006). β-diversity analysis revealed differences in microbiota structure among the groups. After ordered multinomial logistic regression analysis and adjustment for multiple confounding factors, the relative abundance of Peptostreptococcus (OR: 2.06, 95%CI: 1.22–3.60), Patescibacteria (OR: 1.31, 95%CI: 1.04–1.67), Capnocytophaga (OR: 1.24, 95%CI: 1.05–1.54), and Bacteroidota (OR: 1.02, 95%CI: 1.00–1.05) was positively correlated with carcinogenesis. The relative abundance of Stomatobaculum (OR: 0.57, 95%CI: 0.30–1.00) and Actinobacteriota (OR: 0.95, 95%CI: 0.92–0.98) was negatively correlated with carcinogenesis. Conclusion Specific oral microbiotas are significantly associated with esophageal carcinogenesis, and synergistic or antagonistic interactions may be observed among the microbiota.
9.Construction of management index system for rational drug use of key monitoring drugs
Mingxiong ZHANG ; Wanying QIN ; Jian HUANG ; Dan WANG ; Li LI ; Yinghui BU ; Ming YAN ; Kejia LI
China Pharmacy 2025;36(7):784-788
OBJECTIVE To establish management index system for rational drug use of key monitoring drugs, and provide reference for the management of key monitoring drugs in the hospitals. METHODS First, the management index system for rational drug use of key monitoring drugs was drafted by collecting the evidence from related medical literature. Next, using a modified Delphi method, twenty experienced experts from the fields of pharmacy, medical practice, healthcare insurance, and finance were selected to participate in two rounds of questionnaire consultations. Based on the expert enthusiasm coefficient, authority coefficient, degree of opinion concentration, and degree of coordination, the final indicators were determined to establish a management index system for rational drug use of key monitored drugs in medical institutions. RESULTS The expert enthusiasm coefficients reached 100% in both rounds of consultation. In first-level, second-level and third-level indicators, the authority coefficients of experts were 0.89, 0.86 and 0.87, and coordination coefficients of the experts in importance score were 0.300 (P< 0.05), 0.125 (P<0.05) and 0.139 (P<0.05), respectively. The average score for the importance of all indicators reached over 3.5, in which the full score ratio ranged from 35% to 100%. Except that the variation coefficient of a third-level indicator “number of specifications purchased for key monitored drugs” was 0.26, the variation coefficients of rest indicators were less than or equal to 0.25. Based on the results of expert consultation, final version of the management index system established in this study, including two first-level indicators (drug procurement and use, and rational drug use), five second-level indicators (such as the accessibility, cost-effectiveness) and twenty third-level indicators (such as the number of specifications purchased for key monitored drugs, the increase in the cost of key monitored drugs). CONCLUSIONS The management index system established in this study possesses high reliability and strong operability, and may provide a reference for the management of key monitoring drugs in the hospitals.
10.Trends in global burden due to visceral leishmaniasis from 1990 to 2021 and projections up to 2035
Guobing YANG ; Aiwei HE ; Yongjun LI ; Shan LÜ ; Muxin CHEN ; Liguang TIAN ; Qin LIU ; Lei DUAN ; Yan LU ; Jian YANG ; Shizhu LI ; Xiaonong ZHOU ; Jichun WANG ; Shunxian ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control 2025;37(1):35-43
Objective To investigate the global burden of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) from 1990 to 2021 and predict the trends in the burden of VL from 2022 to 2035, so as to provide insights into global VL prevention and control. Methods The global age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates of VL and their 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) were captured from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) data resources. The trends in the global burden of VL were evaluated with average annual percent change (AAPC) and 95% confidence interval (CI) from 1990 to 2021, and gender-, age-, country-, geographical area- and socio-demographic index (SDI)-stratified burdens of VL were analyzed. The trends in the global burden of VL were projected with a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model from 2022 to 2035, and the associations of age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs rates of VL with SDI levels were examined with a smoothing spline model. Results The global age-standardized incidence [AAPC = -0.25%, 95% CI: (-0.25%, -0.24%)], prevalence [AAPC = -0.06%, 95% CI: (-0.06%, -0.06%)], mortality [AAPC = -0.25%, 95% CI: (-0.25%, -0.24%)] and DALYs rates of VL [AAPC = -2.38%, 95% CI: (-2.44%, -2.33%)] all appeared a tendency towards a decline from 1990 to 2021, and the highest age-standardized incidence [2.55/105, 95% UI: (1.49/105, 4.07/105)], prevalence [0.64/105, 95% UI: (0.37/105, 1.02/105)], mortality [0.51/105, 95% UI: (0, 1.80/105)] and DALYs rates of VL [33.81/105, 95% UI: (0.06/105, 124.09/105)] were seen in tropical Latin America in 2021. The global age-standardized incidence and prevalence of VL were both higher among men [0.57/105, 95% UI: (0.45/105, 0.72/105); 0.14/105, 95% UI: (0.11/105, 0.18/105)] than among women [0.27/105, 95% UI: (0.21/105, 0.33/105); 0.06/105, 95% UI: (0.05/105, 0.08/105)], and the highest mortality of VL was found among children under 5 years of age [0.24/105, 95% UI: (0.08/105, 0.66/105)]. The age-standardized incidence (r = -0.483, P < 0.001), prevalence (r = -0.483, P < 0.001), mortality (r = -0.511, P < 0.001) and DALYs rates of VL (r = -0.514, P < 0.001) correlated negatively with SDI levels from 1990 to 2021. In addition, the global burden of VL was projected with the BAPC model to appear a tendency towards a decline from 2022 to 2035, and the age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality and DALYs rates were projected to be reduced to 0.11/105, 0.03/105, 0.02/105 and 1.44/105 in 2035, respectively. Conclusions Although the global burden of VL appeared an overall tendency towards a decline from 1990 to 2021, the burden of VL showed a tendency towards a rise in Central Asia and western sub-Saharan African areas. The age-standardized incidence and prevalence rates of VL were relatively higher among men, and the age-standardized mortality of VL was relatively higher among children under 5 years of age. The global burden of VL was projected to continue to decline from 2022 to 2035.


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