Objective To explore scientific and accurate prediction methods for the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in the post-pandemic era, and to address modeling challenges caused by abnormal fluctuations in case numbers from 2020 to 2023. Methods The seasonal index was used to pre-process the data. The traditional seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, singular spectrum analysis (SSA)-ARIMA model, ARIMA-Long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model were used to fit the incidence from 2013 to 2023, and the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in 2024 was predicted. The real data collected in 2024 were used as the test set to compare the prediction performance of the models. Results The fitting performance of the constructed models was as follows: the ARIMA model had MAE=107.50 and RMSE=144.53, the SSA-ARIMA model showed MAE=2.84 and RMSE=4.33, the ARIMA-LSTM model achieved MAE=99.46 and RMSE=131.59, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model had MAE=96.35 and RMSE=132.13. In terms of prediction performance, the ARIMA model resulted in MAE=151.64 and RMSE=146.70, the SSA-ARIMA model demonstrated MAE=41.22 and RMSE=57.01, the ARIMA-LSTM model yielded MAE=220.75 and RMSE=257.89, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model recorded MAE=58.83 and RMSE=72.06. Conclusion The SSA-ARIMA model has the best fitting degree and the highest prediction accuracy, and is suitable for predicting the incidence trend of hand, foot and mouth disease.

Patients with Takayasu arteritis combined with aortic valve disease often have a poor prognosis following surgical valve replacement, frequently encountering complications such as perivalvular leakage, valve detachment, and anastomotic aneurysm. This article presents a high-risk case wherein severe aortic valve insufficiency associated with Takayasu arteritis was successfully managed through transcatheter aortic valve implantation via the transapical approach. The patient had satisfactory valve function with no complications observed during the six-month postoperative follow-up. This case provides a minimally invasive and feasible alternative for the clinical management of such high-risk patients.

BACKGROUND:The phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase/protein kinase(PI3K/AKT)signaling pathway plays a pivotal role in regulating osteoclast activation,which is essential for maintaining bone homeostasis.Bone destruction in osteoarticular tuberculosis is caused by aberrant osteoclastogenesis induced by Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection.However,the role of the PI3K signaling pathway in Mycobacterium tuberculosis-induced aberrant osteoclastogenesis remains unclear. OBJECTIVE:To investigate the effects and mechanisms of the PI3K/AKT signaling pathway inhibitor BYL-719 on aberrant osteoclastogenesis induced by Mycobacterium tuberculosis. METHODS:RAW264.7 cells were infected with bovine Mycobacterium tuberculosis bacillus calmette-cuerin vaccine,and Ag85B was used for cellular immunofluorescence staining.The cell counting kit-8 assay was employed to determine the safe concentration of BYL-719.There were four groups in the experiment:blank control group,BYL-719 group,BCG group,and BCG+BYL-719 group.Under the induction of receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa-B ligand,the effects of BYL-719 on post-infection osteoclast differentiation and fusion were explored through tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase staining and phalloidin staining.RT-PCR and western blot were used to detect the expression of osteoclast-related genes and proteins,and further investigate the mechanism of action. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:Immunofluorescence staining showed that RAW264.7 cells phagocytosed Mycobacterium tuberculosis.Cell counting kit-8 data indicated that 40 nmol/L BYL-719 was non-toxic to cells.Tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase staining and phalloidin staining showed that BYL-719 inhibited the generation and fusion ability of osteoclasts following infection.RT-PCR and western blot results also indicated that BYL-719 suppressed the upregulation of osteoclast-specific genes(including c-Fos,NFATc1,matrix metalloproteinase 9,and CtsK)induced by Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection(P<0.05).Western blot and immunofluorescence staining revealed that BYL-719 inhibited excessive osteoclast differentiation induced by Mycobacterium tuberculosis by downregulating the expression of IκBα-p65.To conclude,BYL-719 inhibits aberrant osteoclastogenesis induced by Mycobacterium tuberculosis through the downregulation of IκBα/p65.Therefore,the IκBα/p65 signaling pathway is a potential therapeutic target for osteoarticular tuberculosis,and BYL-719 holds potential value for the preventing and amelioration of bone destruction in osteoarticular tuberculosis.BYL-719 has the potential to prevent and ameliorate bone destruction in osteoarticular tuberculosis.

Background: and Purpose Ruptured intracranial aneurysms (RIA) are associated with a mortality rate of up to 40% in the Chinese population, highlighting the critical need for targeted treatment interventions for at-risk individuals. Although the impact of aldehyde dehydrogenase 2 (ALDH2) gene mutations on susceptibility to intracranial aneurysms (IA) is well documented, the potential connection between ALDH2 rs671 single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and RIA remains unexplored. Given the increased prevalence of ALDH2 gene mutations among Chinese Han individuals, it is clinically relevant to investigate the link between ALDH2 rs671 SNP and IA rupture. Methods: A prospective study was conducted on 546 patients diagnosed with IA to investigate the association between ALDH2 rs671 SNP and the risk of IA rupture. Results: The ALDH2 rs671 SNP (ALDH2*2) was significantly more prevalent in patients with unruptured IA (UIA) than in those with RIA (32.56% vs. 18.58%, P=0.004). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that people with the ALDH2 mutation (ALDH2*1/*2 and ALDH2*2/*2 gene type) had a significantly reduced odds ratio (OR=0.49; 95% confidence level [CI] 0.27–0.88; P=0.018) for RIAs. Age-specific subgroup analysis indicated that the ALDH2 mutation provided a stronger protective effect in individuals aged 60 years and above with IA compared to those under 60 years old (OR=0.38 vs. OR=0.52, both P<0.05). Conclusion The incidence of RIA was significantly higher in individuals with a normal ALDH2 gene (ALDH2*1/*1) than in those with an ALDH2 rs671 SNP (ALDH2*1/*2 or ALDH2*2/*2). ALDH2 rs671 SNP may serve as a protective factor against RIA in the Chinese Han population.

Objective: To evaluate the feasibility of dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) in differentiating tumor deposits (TDs) from metastatic lymph nodes (MLNs) in rectal cancer. Materials and Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted on 70 patients with rectal cancer, including 168 lesions (70 TDs and 98 MLNs confirmed by histopathology), who underwent pretreatment MRI and subsequent surgery between March 2019 and December 2022. The morphological characteristics of TDs and MLNs, along with quantitative parameters derived from DCE-MRI (K trans , kep, and v e) and DWI (ADCmin, ADCmax, and ADCmean), were analyzed and compared between the two groups.Multivariable binary logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were performed to assess the diagnostic performance of significant individual quantitative parameters and combined parameters in distinguishing TDs from MLNs. Results: All morphological features, including size, shape, border, and signal intensity, as well as all DCE-MRI parameters showed significant differences between TDs and MLNs (all P < 0.05). However, ADC values did not demonstrate significant differences (all P > 0.05). Among the single quantitative parameters, v e had the highest diagnostic accuracy, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.772 for distinguishing TDs from MLNs. A multivariable logistic regression model incorporating short axis, border, v e, and ADC mean improved diagnostic performance, achieving an AUC of 0.833 (P = 0.027). Conclusion The combination of morphological features, DCE-MRI parameters, and ADC values can effectively aid in the preoperative differentiation of TDs from MLNs in rectal cancer.

Objective: To evaluate the incremental vaccine effectiveness (VE) of two dose of the mumps containing vaccine (MuCV) in chidren, so as to provide a basis for optimizing mumps immunization strategies. Methods: A 1∶2 frequency matched case-control study was conducted by using reported mumps cases in childcare centers or schools from Lu an, Hefei, Ma anshan and Huainan cities of Anhui Province from September 1, 2023 to June 30, 2024, as a case group(383 cases). And healthy children in the same classroom were selected as a control group(766 cases). The MuCV immunization histories of participants were collected to estimate the incremental VE of the second dose of MuCV against mumps. Group comparisons were performed using the Chi square test or t-test. For matched case-control pairs, the Cox regression model was employed to calculate the odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) for two dose MuCV vaccination and to estimate the incremental vaccine effectiveness (VE). Results: There were no statistically significant differences between the case and control groups regarding gender, age, dosage of MuCV vaccination and the time interval since the last dose vaccination( χ 2/t=0.05, 0.20, 0.94, -0.02, P >0.05). The proportions of the case and control groups vaccinated with two doses of MuCV were 26.63% and 29.37%, respectively, and the overall incremental VE of the second dose of MuCV was 40.73% (95% CI=3.03%-63.77%, P <0.05). Subgroup analyses revealed that the incremental VE for children with a period of ≥1 year between the two doses of MuCV was 54.13% (95% CI=1.90%-78.56%, P <0.05), while for children with a period of <1 year, it was 30.63% (95% CI=-28.59%-62.58%, P >0.05). The incremental VE of the second dose of MuCV was 30.36% (95% CI=-25.95%-61.50%, P >0.05) in kindergarten children and 66.73% (95% CI=14.92%-86.99%, P <0.05) in elementary and secondary school students. The incremental VE was 28.78% (95% CI=-27.46%-60.21%, P >0.05) within five years of the last dose of MuCV vaccination and 66.07% (95% CI=-41.56%-91.87%, P >0.05) for vaccinations administered beyond five years. Conclusions The second dose of MuCV may offer additional protection for children; however, extending the interval between two dose of MuCV (<1 year) has shown limited incremental protective effects. Therefore, it is crucial to consider optimizing current immunization strategies for mumps.

ObjectiveTo understand the seropositivity of neutralizing antibodies (NAb) and low-level NAb against SARS-CoV-2 infection in the community residents, and to explore the impact of COVID-19 vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 infection on the levels of NAb in human serum. MethodsOn the ground of surveillance cohort for acute infectious diseases in community populations in Shanghai, a proportional stratified sampling method was used to enroll the subjects at a 20% proportion for each age group (0‒14, 15‒24, 25‒59, and ≥60 years old). Blood samples collection and serum SARS-CoV-2 NAb concentration testing were conducted from March to April 2023. Low-level NAb were defined as below the 25^th percentile of NAb. ResultsA total of 2 230 participants were included, the positive rate of NAb was 97.58%, and the proportion of low-level NAb was 25.02% (558/2 230). Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that age, infection history and vaccination status were correlated with low-level NAb (all P<0.05). Individuals aged 60 years and above had the highest risk of low-level NAb. There was a statistically significant interaction between booster vaccination and one single infection (aOR=0.38, 95%CI: 0.19‒0.77). Compared to individuals without vaccination, among individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 once, both primary immunization (aOR=0.23, 95%CI: 0.16‒0.35) and booster immunization (aOR=0.12, 95%CI: 0.08‒0.17) significantly reduced the risk of low-level NAb; among individuals without infections, only booster immunization (aOR=0.28, 95%CI: 0.14‒0.52) showed a negative correlation with the risk of low-level NAb. ConclusionsThe population aged 60 and above had the highest risk of low-level NAb. Regardless of infection history, a booster immunization could reduce the risk of low-level NAb. It is recommended that eligible individuals , especially the elderly, should get vaccinated in a timely manner to exert the protective role of NAb.

ObjectiveTo explore the correlation between the occurrence of cardiovascular events in rheumatoid arthritis（RA） and traditional Chinese medicine（TCM） syndrome. MethodsThe cross-sectional study selected 6713 RA patients from 122 centres nationwide， in which general information such as name， gender， age， height， body weight， and course of disease were collected by completing a questionnaire； patients were classified into eight types of syndrome according to the information of their four examinations，i.e. wind-dampness obstruction syndrome， cold-dampness obstruction syndrome， dampness-heat obstruction syndrome， phlegm-stasis obstruction syndrome， stasis-blood obstructing collateral syndrome， qi-blood deficiency syndrome， liver-kidney insufficiency syndrome， and qi-yin deficiency syndrome. According to the occurrence of cardiovascular events， they were divided into the occurrence group and the non-occurrence group， and the condition assessment data and laboratory examination indexes were recorded. The test of difference between groups was used to analyse the possible risk factors for the occurrence of RA cardiovascular events， and binary logistic regression was used to analyse the correlation between TCM syndromes and RA cardiovascular events. ResultsA total of 6713 RA patients were included， including 256 cases in occurrence group and 6457 in non-occurrence group. There was no statistically significant difference between groups in terms of height， gender， insomnia， appetite， white blood cell（WBC）， hemoglobin（HGB）， platelets（PLT）， rheumatoid factor（RF）， anti-cyclic peptide containing citrulline（CCP）， alanine aminotransferase（ALT）， aspartate aminotransferase（AST）， γ-glutamyl transpeptidase（GGT）， urea creatinine（CREA）， and glucose（GLU）（P＞0.05）. The TCM syndromes between groups showed significant statistic differences（P＜0.05）. Patients in occurrence group had longer disease duration， heavier body weight， and older age； more severe conditions such as disease activity（DAS-28）， number of painful joints（TJC）， number of swollen joints（SJC）， health questionnaire scores（HAQ）， visual analog scores（VAS）， restlessness， and fatigue； higher blood sedimentation rate（ESR）， low-density lipoprotein（LDL-C）， triglyceride（TG）， total cholesterol（TC）， D-Dimer， and lower high-density lipoprotein（HDL-C）（P＜0.05）. The distribution of syndrome types showed that dampness-heat obstruction syndrome accounted for the largest proportion of patients in both groups and was higher in RA cardiovascular events. Logistic regression analysis showed that the occurrence of RA cardiovascular events was strongly associated with dampness-heat obstruction syndrome［OR=5.937， 95%CI （4.434， 7.949）， P＜0.001］. ConclusionThe occurrence of RA cardiovascular events were associated with TCM syndromes， and the probability of cardiovascular events in the RA patients with dampness-heat obstruction syndrome was 5.937 times higher than patients with other TCM syndromes.

Objective To introduce a modified technique of right ventricular outflow tract (RVOT) reconstruction using a handmade bicuspid pulmonary valve crafted from expanded polytetrafluoroethylene (ePTFE) and to summarize the early single-center experience. Methods Patients with complex congenital heart diseases (CHD) who underwent RVOT reconstruction with a handmade ePTFE bicuspid pulmonary valve due to pulmonary regurgitation at Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital from April 2021 to February 2022 were selected. Postoperative artificial valve function and right heart function indicators were evaluated. Results A total of 17 patients were included, comprising 10 males and 7 females, with a mean age of (18.18±12.14) years and a mean body weight of (40.94±19.45) kg. Sixteen patients underwent reconstruction with a handmade valved conduit, with conduit sizes ranging from 18 to 24 mm. No patients required mechanical circulatory support, and no in-hospital deaths occurred. During a mean follow-up period of 12.89 months, only one patient developed valve dysfunction, and no related complications or adverse events were observed. The degree of pulmonary regurgitation was significantly improved post-RVOT reconstruction and during follow-up compared to preoperative levels (P<0.001). Postoperative right atrial diameter, right ventricular diameter, and tricuspid regurgitation area were all significantly reduced compared to preoperative values (P<0.05). Conclusion The use of a 0.1 mm ePTFE handmade bicuspid pulmonary valve for RVOT reconstruction in complex CHD is a feasible, effective, and safe technique.

Objective: To confirm the therapeutic efficacy of the ginkgo biloba extract EGb761 on ischemic stroke and elucidate its underlying mechanism. Methods: Male Sprague-Dawley rats were divided into three groups: sham, model, and EGb761 (ginkgo biloba extract). Ischemic stroke was then simulated in rats via embolic middle cerebral artery occlusion surgery, with the extract administered half an hour before surgery. Neurological deficit scores, infarct volume, cerebral edema rate, and inflammatory factors served as the primary metrics for drug efficacy. Serum metabolites were analyzed using 1H-nuclear magnetic resonance to elucidate the operative mechanism. Results: Treatment with the ginkgo biloba extract EGb761 significantly ameliorated the neurological deficit scores (P = .0343), diminished the cerebral infarct volume (P = .0001) and cerebral edema rate (P = .0030), and alleviated neuroinflammation (all P < .05) in middle cerebral artery occlusion rats. In addition, it significantly altered the contents of various metabolites, such as 2-hydroxybutyrate, isoleucine, isopropanol, isobutyric acid, N6-acetyllysine, glutamate, glutamine, methionine, and N,N-dimethylglycine (all P < .05). Enrichment analysis of the differential metabolites indicated that EGb761 may be involved in the regulation of amino acid metabolism, betaine metabolism, glucose-alanine cycle, Warburg effect, and urea cycle. Conclusion The ginkgo biloba extract EGb761 demonstrates anti-ischemic stroke effect on ischemic stroke model rats by regulating amino acids and amino acid derivatives, such as isoleucine, N6-acetyllysine, glutamate, methionine, and N,N-dimethylglycine.