Objective To explore scientific and accurate prediction methods for the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in the post-pandemic era, and to address modeling challenges caused by abnormal fluctuations in case numbers from 2020 to 2023. Methods The seasonal index was used to pre-process the data. The traditional seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, singular spectrum analysis (SSA)-ARIMA model, ARIMA-Long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model were used to fit the incidence from 2013 to 2023, and the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in 2024 was predicted. The real data collected in 2024 were used as the test set to compare the prediction performance of the models. Results The fitting performance of the constructed models was as follows: the ARIMA model had MAE=107.50 and RMSE=144.53, the SSA-ARIMA model showed MAE=2.84 and RMSE=4.33, the ARIMA-LSTM model achieved MAE=99.46 and RMSE=131.59, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model had MAE=96.35 and RMSE=132.13. In terms of prediction performance, the ARIMA model resulted in MAE=151.64 and RMSE=146.70, the SSA-ARIMA model demonstrated MAE=41.22 and RMSE=57.01, the ARIMA-LSTM model yielded MAE=220.75 and RMSE=257.89, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model recorded MAE=58.83 and RMSE=72.06. Conclusion The SSA-ARIMA model has the best fitting degree and the highest prediction accuracy, and is suitable for predicting the incidence trend of hand, foot and mouth disease.

Objective To investigate the expression profile, prognostic value, gene co-expression network, and immunomodulatory role of BRF1 in a pan-cancer context, and to explore its biological functions and molecular regulatory mechanisms in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Methods The pan-cancer dataset from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) was utilized to analyze the differential expression of BRF1 in tumor versus normal tissues, its association with patient survival, pathway enrichment for co-expressed genes, and immune features (including immune checkpoints, cytokines, and immune cell infiltration). The expression profile of BRF1 in ESCC was validated using the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database. In vitro, BRF1 was knocked down in ESCC cells using siRNA. Cell proliferation and migration were assessed by MTT and Transwell assays, respectively. The expression levels of proliferation- and migration-related proteins were detected by Western blotting. The correlation between BRF1 and ferroptosis was analyzed using TCGA data. Results BRF1 was significantly upregulated in over 20 types of cancer, and its high expression was associated with poor prognosis in patients with adrenocortical carcinoma and prostate adenocarcinoma. BRF1 was found to positively regulate the T-cell-mediated cell death pathway in esophageal adenocarcinoma and was associated with the circadian rhythm regulation pathway in pancreatic adenocarcinoma. The correlation of BRF1 with immune checkpoints, cytokine networks, and immune cell infiltration was found to be cancer type-specific. In vitro experiments demonstrated that knocking down BRF1 significantly inhibited the proliferation of ESCC cells, accompanied by the downregulation of the proliferation marker PCNA. Cell migration was also significantly impaired, with decreased expression of Vimentin and MMPs and increased expression of E-cadherin. Furthermore, the expression of BRF1 was positively correlated with that of ferroptosis-antagonizing genes, such as GPX4, HSPA5, and SLC7A11. Conclusion BRF1 plays complex roles in pan-cancer, participating in the regulation of tumorigenesis, progression, and immune infiltration. BRF1 promotes the proliferation and migration of ESCC cells, a mechanism potentially associated with the regulation of ferroptosis resistance. These findings suggest that BRF1 could be a potential therapeutic target for ESCC.

With the widespread adoption of low-dose CT screening and the extensive application of high-resolution CT, the detection rate of sub-centimeter lung nodules has significantly increased. How to scientifically manage these nodules while avoiding overtreatment and diagnostic delays has become an important clinical issue. Among them, lung nodules with a consolidation tumor ratio less than 0.25, dominated by ground-glass shadows, are particularly worthy of attention. The therapeutic challenge for this group is how to achieve precise and complete resection of nodules during surgery while maximizing the preservation of the patient's lung function. The "watershed topography map" is a new technology based on big data and artificial intelligence algorithms. This method uses Dicom data from conventional dose CT scans, combined with microscopic (22-24 levels) capillary network anatomical watershed features, to generate high-precision simulated natural segmentation planes of lung sub-segments through specific textures and forms. This technology forms fluorescent watershed boundaries on the lung surface, which highly fit the actual lung anatomical structure. By analyzing the adjacent relationship between the nodule and the watershed boundary, real-time, visually accurate positioning of the nodule can be achieved. This innovative technology provides a new solution for the intraoperative positioning and resection of lung nodules. This consensus was led by four major domestic societies, jointly with expert teams in related fields, oriented to clinical practical needs, referring to domestic and foreign guidelines and consensus, and finally formed after multiple rounds of consultation, discussion, and voting. The main content covers the theoretical basis of the "watershed topography map" technology, indications, operation procedures, surgical planning details, and postoperative evaluation standards, aiming to provide scientific guidance and exploration directions for clinical peers who are currently or plan to carry out lung nodule resection using the fluorescent microscope watershed analysis method.

Objective To analyze the trend of heart disease death and the life expectancy without cause of death in Qidong City, Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2019, and to provide reference for the prevention and control of heart disease. Methods Data on heart disease deaths among residents in Qidong City from 1990 to 2019 were collected through the Qidong City Death Registration and Monitoring System. The crude mortality rate (CR) and Chinese age-standardized mortality rate (CASR), potential years of life loss (PYLL), average years of life loss (AYLL), potential life loss years rate (PYLLR), life expectancy, and life expectancy without cause of death were calculated, and the annual percentage change (APC) was used to analyze the trend of heart disease death. Using SAS9.2 software, the death trend prediction was conducted by the ARIMA model in time series analysis. Results From 1990 to 2019, 27,762 residents died of heart disease in Qidong City, with a CR of 81.20/100 000 and an APC of 3.734%. There were 12 358 deaths of heart disease in men, with a CR of 73.24/100 000 and an APC of 3.86%, while there were 15 404 deaths of heart disease in women, with a CR of 88.95/100 000 and an APC of 3.63%. CR showed an upward trend (all P < 0.001). The PYLL for heart disease was 66 192.00 person-years, the AYLL was 13.23 person-years, and the PYLLR was 2.16‰. The life expectancy loss from heart disease was gradually increasing: 0.89 years in 1990 to 1.85 years in 2019, with an APC of 0.405% (P<0.001, a statistically significant trend). The prediction results showed that in 2029, the life expectancy after heart disease would reach 88.17 years. Conclusion From 1990 to 2019, the crude mortality rate of heart disease in Qidong City has showed an increasing trend, leading to an increasing loss of life due to heart disease year by year. The mortality rate and life loss of heart disease in women are higher than those in men. Targeted intervention measures should be further adopted to reduce the mortality rate of heart disease among residents in Qidong.

Objective To compare the efficacy of additional tricuspid valve annuloplasty (TVP) and isolated closure for atrial septal defect (ASD) with moderate to severe tricuspid regurgitation (TR). Methods Clinical data of the patients diagnosed with ASD combined with secondary moderate to severe TR and treated in our hospital from January 2009 to June 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were divided into a TVP group and a non-TVP group based on whether TVP was performed simultaneously. The baseline data of two groups were matched with a ratio of 1∶1 propensity score. Results A total of 32 pairs from 257 patients were successfully matched. In the TVP group, there were 24 females and 8 males with an average age of 44.0±13.1 years. In the non-TVP group, there were 28 females and 4 males with an average age of 44.5±11.6 years. The TR area and estimated pulmonary artery pressure in the two groups were significantly decreased compared with preoperation (all P<0.001). The TR area (P=0.001) and the estimated pulmonary artery pressure (P=0.002) were decreased more significantly in the TVP group than those in the non-TVP group. Linear regression analysis showed that age and preoperative TR area had a positive correlation with TR area at follow-up (β=0.045 and 0.259, respectively, both P<0.05), while additional TVP had a negative correlation (β=–1.542, P=0.001). Conclusion Additional TVP can significantly reduce the TR area and pulmonary artery pressure, and elderly patients with severe TR before surgery should actively receive TVP.

Objective To confirm the changes of pulmonary artery pressure, neo pulmonary artery stenosis and reoperation in children with unilateral absence of pulmonary artery (UAPA) undergoing pulmonary artery reconstruction. Methods The clinical data of the infants with UAPA undergoing pulmonary artery reconstruction in our hospital from February 19, 2019 to April 15, 2021 were analyzed. Changes in pulmonary artery pressure, neo pulmonary artery stenosis and reoperation were followed up. Results Finally 5 patients were collected, including 4 males and 1 female. The operation age ranged from 13 days to 2.7 years. Cardiac contrast-enhanced CT scans were performed in all children, and 2 patients underwent pulmonary vein wedge angiography to confirm the diagnosis and preoperative evaluation. Preoperative transthoracic echocardiography and intraoperative direct pulmonary arterial pressure measurement indicated that all 5 children had pulmonary hypertension, with a mean pulmonary arterial pressure of 31.3±16.0 mm Hg. Pulmonary arterial pressure decreased immediately after pulmonary artery reconstruction to 16.8±4.2 mm Hg. The mean follow-up time was 18.9±4.7 months. All 5 patients survived during the follow-up period, and 1 patient had neo pulmonary artery stenosis or even occlusion and was re-operated. Conclusion Pulmonary artery reconstruction can effectively alleviate the pulmonary hypertension in children with UAPA. The patency of the neo pulmonary artery should be closely followed up after surgery, and re-pulmonary angioplasty should be performed if necessary.

Objective To investigate the benefits of using a stapler tractor in the treatment of segmental bronchus during lung segmentectomy through detailed video replay analysis of surgical procedures. Methods We collected data from patients who underwent segmentectomy performed by the same surgical team in the Department of Thoracic Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, from November 2020 to August 2023. After excluding data that lacked analysis parameters, the remaining patients were divided into four groups based on the methods used for dissociating segmental bronchus: a stapler tractor group (group A), a stapler with bronchial stretching group (group B), a stapler only group (group C), and a silk ligature group (group D). Then, we compared baseline data and videotaped surgical details across all groups. Surgical details included the success rate of one-time segmental bronchus dissociation and severance, the time taken for successful one-time dissociation and severance of the segmental bronchus, the incidence of bleeding during bronchus dissociation, the conversion rate to thoracotomy during surgery, and surgical outcomes such as total operative time, postoperative hospitalization days, postoperative thoracic drainage volume, and pulmonary air leakage rate. Results The study included 325 patients (203 in the group A, 62 in the group B, 29 in the group C, and 31 in the group D). There was no statistically significant difference in baseline data among the four groups. However, significant differences were found in terms of total operation time, postoperative hospitalization days, intraoperative blood loss, segmental bronchial stump length, postoperative air leakage rate, hemorrhage rate during segmental bronchial dissociation, and conversion to thoracotomy rate among the four groups (P<0.05). Conclusion Using a stapler tractor for dissociating segmental bronchus in lung segmentectomy results in shorter operative time, less risk of intraoperative bleeding, and less surgical complications. This study provides valuable evaluation methodologies through the analysis of video replay surgical details, contributing to the improvement of lung segmentectomy quality.

Objective     To evaluate the early clinical outcomes of the Renatus® balloon-expandable valve in the treatment of severe aortic stenosis. Methods    From November 2021 to April 2022, a total of 38 patients who received Renatus® balloon-expandable valve for severe aortic stenosis in Guangdong Provincial People&#39;s Hospital were included. There were 22 males and 16 females, with an average age of 73.7±5.3 years. Mean aortic gradient and peak aortic jet velocity at baseline, post-procedure, and follow-up were compared. Clinical outcomes including all-cause mortality, perivalvular leakage, serious adverse cardiovascular events and the occurrence of permanent pacemaker implantation were assessed. Results    All patients completed the procedure successfully without conversion to thoracotomy or perioperative death. The post-implant mean aortic pressure gradient was decreased from 41.5 (27.8, 58.8) mm Hg to 6.0 (3.0, 8.0) mm Hg, and the peak aortic jet velocity was also decreased from 4.1±0.9 m/s to 1.7±0.4 m/s (P<0.001). Pacemakers were required in 2 (5.3%) patients. The median follow-up time was 27.5 (23.0, 87.5) d, with a follow-up rate of 100.0%. The mean aortic gradient was 8.0 (7.0, 10.8) mm Hg and peak aortic jet velocity was 2.0±0.3 m/s, showing significant improvement compared with those in the preoperative period (P<0.001). No severe aortic regurgitation or paravalvular leak was observed. There was no serious cardiovascular adverse event or reoperative event during the study period. Conclusion    Transcatheter aortic valve replacement with the domestic Renatus® balloon-expandable valve system is a safe and effective procedure for selected patients with severe aortic stenosis who are at high risk or not candidates for surgical aortic valve replacement.

Objective    To characterize surgical outcomes of supra-cardiac total anomalous pulmonary venous connection (TAPVC), investigate risk factors for postoperative death, and explore informed LASSO machine learning methods to solve "small sample size problem" in research of rare congenital heart diseases. Methods    A retrospective analysis of 241 patients with supra-cardiac TAPVC who underwent surgical repair in Guangdong Provincial People&#39;s Hospital from 2009 to 2019 was conducted, including 179 males and 62 females with a median surgical age of 71 (33, 232) d. Detailed clinical data of the postoperative death-related factors were extracted. Univariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to initially screen potential risk factors for postoperative death. Factors with P鈮?.05 were retained. To solve the limitation of small sample size and the "P>n" problem, we proposed a novel LASSO method for conducting multivariable Cox regression analysis that was capable of bringing in findings of related studies to improve analysis power and to reduce false-negative findings. Results 聽 聽Univariable Cox analyses showed several potential clinical risk factors, among which highly significant factors (P<0.001) included: surgical weight鈮?.5 kg (HR=16.00), main pulmonary artery diameter (HR=0.78), prolonged cardiopulmonary bypass time (HR=1.21), aortic block time (HR=1.28), and postoperative ventilator-assisted time (HR=1.13/d). LASSO multivariable analysis revealed that independent risk factors for postoperative death included cardiopulmonary bypass time (aHR=1.308/30 min), age (aHR=0.898), postoperative ventilator-assisted time (aHR=1.023/d), weight鈮?.5 kg (aHR=2.545), right vertical venous return (aHR=1.977), preoperative pulmonary venous obstruction (aHR=1.633) and emergency surgery (aHR=1.383). Conclusion 聽 聽Our proposed informed LASSO method can use previous studies&#39; results to improve the power of analysis and effectively solve the "P>n" and small sample size limitation. Cardiopulmonary bypass time, surgical age, postoperative ventilator-assisted time, weight, right vertical venous return, preoperative pulmonary venous obstruction, and emergency surgery are risk factors for postoperative death of supra-cardiac TAPVC.

Objective    To determine the clinical efficacy of transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) for severe aortic regurgitation (AR) combined with severe mitral regurgitation (MR). Methods    The clinical data of 13 patients who underwent TAVR due to severe AR combined with severe MR from March 2018 to September 2021 in our hospital were retrospectively analyzed, including 10 males and 3 females with a mean age of 72.54±2.35 years. The echocardiographic findings of all patients were compared preoperatively and postoperatively. Results    Surgeries were performed successfully in all patients without intraoperative death or conversion to sternotomy. The operation time was 118.15±11.42 min, intraoperative blood loss was 100.00 (75.00, 250.00) mL, and the length of hospital stay after surgery was 9.00 (4.50, 11.00) d. The mean follow-up duration was 10.00 (6.50, 38.50) months, during which there were 2 patients with mild to moderate AR, 6 with mild AR, and 5 with no AR; meanwhile, severe MR decreased significantly (P=0.001) even without active intervention, including 4 mild to moderate MR and 9 mild MR patients. Compared to preoperative indexes, the left atrial diameter [46.00 (41.00, 52.50) mm vs. 35.00 (34.00, 41.00) mm, P<0.001], left ventricular end-systolic diameter [45.00 (36.00, 56.00) mm vs. 35.00 (28.00, 39.00) mm, P=0.002] and left ventricular end-diastolic diameter (62.62±2.40 mm vs. 51.08±2.49 mm, P<0.001) showed a decreasing trend during the follow-up. Conclusion    In selected patients with severe AR combined with severe MR, TAVR alone improves AR and combined MR at the same time.