OBJECTIVE:Postoperative recurrence is a common complication of percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy for lumbar disc herniation,which can significantly increase the risk of reoperation.A well-performing risk prediction model can help identify high-risk groups early and prevent postoperative recurrence.This study systematically evaluated the risk prediction model for postoperative recurrence after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy to provide a reference for surgical decision-making.METHODS:The PubMed,Embase,Web of Science,CNKI,WanFang Data,VIP,and CBM were electronically searched to collect studies on the recurrence risk prediction models after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy from inception to July 1,2024.Two reviewers independently screened the literature and extracted data.The models' risk of bias,applicability,and report quality were assessed using prediction model risk of bias assessment tool(PROBAST)and Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis(TRIPOD)tools,respectively.Meta-analysis of postoperative recurrence rate of percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy and related predictors was performed using Revman 5.4 software.RESULTS:(1)A total of 15 studies were included,all of which were retrospective studies,including 24 models for predicting the risk of recurrence after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy.(2)The PROBAST evaluation results indicated that all 15 studies exhibited a high risk of bias.Regarding applicability,two studies demonstrated a low risk,while 13 presented a high risk.(3)Regarding the TRIPOD reporting quality,the overall quality across the 15 studies was low.The primary reasons for this low compliance included the failure to report blinding,a lack of explanation for the sample size calculation method,lack of detailed description of missing data processing methods,and lack of information such as introduction to the model used.(4)Furthermore,the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the model ranged from 0.684 to 0.972,with the number of potential predictor variables varying from 15 to 28.(5)The results of meta-analysis showed that the postoperative recurrence rate of lumbar disc herniation patients treated with percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy was 12％(95％CI=9.0％-15.0％),Modic changes(OR=6.72,95％CI=3.90-11.59),body mass index(OR=1.28,95％CI=1.10-1.49),work intensity(OR=3.22,95％CI=1.85-5.59),age(OR=2.28,95％CI=1.50-3.48),and smoking history(OR=2.65,95％CI=1.75-4.00)were independent influencing factors for postoperative recurrence of percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy(all P＜0.05).CONCLUSION:The overall predictive performance of the recurrence risk prediction models after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy is satisfactory;however,the model exhibits a high overall risk of bias and applicability,coupled with low reporting quality.Additionally,there is a lack of prospective research and external validation.Future,risk prediction models should consider factors such as Modic changes,body mass index,work intensity,age,and smoking history as potential predictors.

LIU Wansu， as the foremost of the four great masters of the Jin-Yuan period， established the "theory of fire-heat'' and extended the fire-heat pathogenesis framework to the field of stroke， thereby forming the theory of ''fire-heat inducing stroke''. This achieved a paradigmatic shift in stroke etiology from ''exogenous wind inducing stroke'' to ''fire-heat inducing stroke''. This paper systematically reviews the developmental trajectory of LIU Wansu's ''fire-heat inducing stroke'' theory and explores the social background， academic origins， and core connotations of its theoretical construction. The study found that， based on the ''Nineteen Pathomechanisms'' in the Huangdi's Internal Classic （Huang Di Nei Jing） and combined with clinical practice， LIU Wansu proposed that fire-heat is the fundamental cause of stroke， and that the Six Climatic Factors and the Five Zhi-Emotions can all transform into fire. He further constructed a stratified syndrome differentiation and therapeutic system centered on clearing heat and purging fire， emphasizing differentiated treatment of exterior and interior syndromes， Six Meridians syndrome differentiation， and seasonally adjusted medication. This theory not only resolved the diagnostic and therapeutic dilemmas of febrile epidemic diseases during the Jin-Yuan period， but also exerted a profound influence on later physicians such as ZHANG Zihe and ZHU Danxi， thereby promoting the pluralistic development of stroke theory in traditional Chinese medicine （TCM）. Modern pharmacological research provides solid scientific evidence， confirming that the ''fire-heat'' pathological state is highly associated with key mechanisms such as excessive inflammatory responses， oxidative stress， and excitatory amino acid toxicity following cerebral ischemia. Heat-clearing and fire-purging prescriptions and agents， such as Huanglian Jiedu Tang and baicalin， can exert multi-target neuroprotective effects by regulating inflammatory signaling， enhancing antioxidant enzyme activity， and balancing neurotransmitters. This not only verifies the scientific basis of the ''fire-heat inducing stroke'' theory from a modern biological perspective but also provides conclusive evidence for the clinical application of heat-clearing and fire-purging therapy. LIU Wansu's ''fire-heat inducing stroke'' theory represents a major milestone in the historical understanding of stroke pathogenesis， and its academically transitional insights continue to hold core guiding value for the pattern identification and treatment of ischemic stroke today.

LIU Wansu， as the foremost of the four great masters of the Jin-Yuan period， established the "theory of fire-heat'' and extended the fire-heat pathogenesis framework to the field of stroke， thereby forming the theory of ''fire-heat inducing stroke''. This achieved a paradigmatic shift in stroke etiology from ''exogenous wind inducing stroke'' to ''fire-heat inducing stroke''. This paper systematically reviews the developmental trajectory of LIU Wansu's ''fire-heat inducing stroke'' theory and explores the social background， academic origins， and core connotations of its theoretical construction. The study found that， based on the ''Nineteen Pathomechanisms'' in the Huangdi's Internal Classic （Huang Di Nei Jing） and combined with clinical practice， LIU Wansu proposed that fire-heat is the fundamental cause of stroke， and that the Six Climatic Factors and the Five Zhi-Emotions can all transform into fire. He further constructed a stratified syndrome differentiation and therapeutic system centered on clearing heat and purging fire， emphasizing differentiated treatment of exterior and interior syndromes， Six Meridians syndrome differentiation， and seasonally adjusted medication. This theory not only resolved the diagnostic and therapeutic dilemmas of febrile epidemic diseases during the Jin-Yuan period， but also exerted a profound influence on later physicians such as ZHANG Zihe and ZHU Danxi， thereby promoting the pluralistic development of stroke theory in traditional Chinese medicine （TCM）. Modern pharmacological research provides solid scientific evidence， confirming that the ''fire-heat'' pathological state is highly associated with key mechanisms such as excessive inflammatory responses， oxidative stress， and excitatory amino acid toxicity following cerebral ischemia. Heat-clearing and fire-purging prescriptions and agents， such as Huanglian Jiedu Tang and baicalin， can exert multi-target neuroprotective effects by regulating inflammatory signaling， enhancing antioxidant enzyme activity， and balancing neurotransmitters. This not only verifies the scientific basis of the ''fire-heat inducing stroke'' theory from a modern biological perspective but also provides conclusive evidence for the clinical application of heat-clearing and fire-purging therapy. LIU Wansu's ''fire-heat inducing stroke'' theory represents a major milestone in the historical understanding of stroke pathogenesis， and its academically transitional insights continue to hold core guiding value for the pattern identification and treatment of ischemic stroke today.

Objective To analyze the influenza-like illness (ILI) data in Ordos City from 2017 to 2023 and conduct nucleic acid detection of the virus to understand the local influenza epidemic situation, and to provide a reliable basis for influenza prevention and control in the city. Methods Real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) was used to identify virus subtypes in ILI throat swab samples. Comparisons of positive rates were conducted using the chi-square test, with a significance level of α=0.05. Results From 2017 to 2023, a total of 3,283,434 outpatient and emergency visits were recorded at the Ordos City Central Hospital, including 74,159 ILI cases, with an ILI proportion of 2.26%. The majority of ILI cases (74.43%) occurred in children aged 0~14 years old. The overall positive rate of influenza virus nucleic acid detection was 10.87%, with the highest proportion being subtype A (seasonal H3) at 43.03%. The highest detection rate was observed in the 5~14 years age group, with statistically significant differences in positive rates across age groups (χ²=155.638, P<0.001). Influenza peaks occurred mainly from November to March of the following year. From January to April, three types of influenza were prevalent alternately or mixed, while from October to December, subtype A (seasonal H3) predominated. Positive rates varied significantly across months (χ²=250.923, P<0.001). The temporal trends of ILI proportions and PCR-positive rates were consistent. Conclusion Influenza in Ordos City exhibits distinct seasonal and age distribution characteristics, with alternating or mixed circulation of three virus types. Continued efforts are needed to strengthen influenza surveillance, especially the prevention and control of influenza in infants and adolescents.

OBJECTIVE:Postoperative recurrence is a common complication of percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy for lumbar disc herniation,which can significantly increase the risk of reoperation.A well-performing risk prediction model can help identify high-risk groups early and prevent postoperative recurrence.This study systematically evaluated the risk prediction model for postoperative recurrence after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy to provide a reference for surgical decision-making.METHODS:The PubMed,Embase,Web of Science,CNKI,WanFang Data,VIP,and CBM were electronically searched to collect studies on the recurrence risk prediction models after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy from inception to July 1,2024.Two reviewers independently screened the literature and extracted data.The models' risk of bias,applicability,and report quality were assessed using prediction model risk of bias assessment tool(PROBAST)and Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis(TRIPOD)tools,respectively.Meta-analysis of postoperative recurrence rate of percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy and related predictors was performed using Revman 5.4 software.RESULTS:(1)A total of 15 studies were included,all of which were retrospective studies,including 24 models for predicting the risk of recurrence after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy.(2)The PROBAST evaluation results indicated that all 15 studies exhibited a high risk of bias.Regarding applicability,two studies demonstrated a low risk,while 13 presented a high risk.(3)Regarding the TRIPOD reporting quality,the overall quality across the 15 studies was low.The primary reasons for this low compliance included the failure to report blinding,a lack of explanation for the sample size calculation method,lack of detailed description of missing data processing methods,and lack of information such as introduction to the model used.(4)Furthermore,the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the model ranged from 0.684 to 0.972,with the number of potential predictor variables varying from 15 to 28.(5)The results of meta-analysis showed that the postoperative recurrence rate of lumbar disc herniation patients treated with percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy was 12％(95％CI=9.0％-15.0％),Modic changes(OR=6.72,95％CI=3.90-11.59),body mass index(OR=1.28,95％CI=1.10-1.49),work intensity(OR=3.22,95％CI=1.85-5.59),age(OR=2.28,95％CI=1.50-3.48),and smoking history(OR=2.65,95％CI=1.75-4.00)were independent influencing factors for postoperative recurrence of percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy(all P＜0.05).CONCLUSION:The overall predictive performance of the recurrence risk prediction models after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy is satisfactory;however,the model exhibits a high overall risk of bias and applicability,coupled with low reporting quality.Additionally,there is a lack of prospective research and external validation.Future,risk prediction models should consider factors such as Modic changes,body mass index,work intensity,age,and smoking history as potential predictors.

ObjectiveTo construct a risk prediction model for carotid artery plaques in high-risk populations of stroke based on five machine learning methods. MethodsThe clinical information of the high-risk population of stroke was collected. Factor analysis and statistical analysis of syndrome elements were conducted on their traditional Chinese medicine （TCM） symptoms and tongue and pulse manifestations. On the basis of the results of factor analysis and variable screening， five machine learning methods-classification and regression tree （CART） decision tree， support vector machine （SVM）， back propagation（BP） neural network， logistic regression， and random forest-were used to construct the risk prediction model for carotid artery plaques. ResultsThe most common TCM syndrome elements in the high-risk population of stroke was Qi deficiency. The scores of Qi deficiency， Yin deficiency， and Yang deficiency in the population with carotid artery plaques were higher than those without carotid artery plaques （P<0.05）. The CART decision tree， SVM， logistic regression， BP neural network， and random forest models showed the areas under the receiver operating characteristic （ROC） curves of 0.71， 0.75， 0.76， 0.76， and 0.75， the accuracy rates of 68.94%， 69.27%， 69.44%， 70.10%， and 69.60%， the precision rates of 68.56%， 68.53%， 68.75%， 69.74%， and 69.42%， the recall rates of 68.91%， 67.93%， 67.92%， 68.10%， and 67.31%， and the F₁ values of 0.69， 0.68， 0.68， 0.68， and 0.68， respectively. ConclusionAmong the high-risk population of stroke， the most frequently distributed TCM syndrome element is Qi deficiency， with the rest mainly being fire heat， Yin deficiency， Yang deficiency， phlegm dampness， blood stasis， and Qi stagnation. Deficiency syndrome may be a major factor leading to carotid artery plaques in the high-risk population of stroke. The BP neural network model demonstrates better performance in predicting the risk of carotid artery plaques in the high-risk population of stroke. People with carotid artery plaques are more likely to present with symptoms such as a heavy head， dizziness， headache， and thready pulse. The primary community benefits more widely when the BP neural network model is adopted to predict the risk of carotid artery plaques in the high-risk population of stroke over 40 years old.

ObjectiveTo construct a risk prediction model for carotid artery plaques in high-risk populations of stroke based on five machine learning methods. MethodsThe clinical information of the high-risk population of stroke was collected. Factor analysis and statistical analysis of syndrome elements were conducted on their traditional Chinese medicine （TCM） symptoms and tongue and pulse manifestations. On the basis of the results of factor analysis and variable screening， five machine learning methods-classification and regression tree （CART） decision tree， support vector machine （SVM）， back propagation（BP） neural network， logistic regression， and random forest-were used to construct the risk prediction model for carotid artery plaques. ResultsThe most common TCM syndrome elements in the high-risk population of stroke was Qi deficiency. The scores of Qi deficiency， Yin deficiency， and Yang deficiency in the population with carotid artery plaques were higher than those without carotid artery plaques （P<0.05）. The CART decision tree， SVM， logistic regression， BP neural network， and random forest models showed the areas under the receiver operating characteristic （ROC） curves of 0.71， 0.75， 0.76， 0.76， and 0.75， the accuracy rates of 68.94%， 69.27%， 69.44%， 70.10%， and 69.60%， the precision rates of 68.56%， 68.53%， 68.75%， 69.74%， and 69.42%， the recall rates of 68.91%， 67.93%， 67.92%， 68.10%， and 67.31%， and the F₁ values of 0.69， 0.68， 0.68， 0.68， and 0.68， respectively. ConclusionAmong the high-risk population of stroke， the most frequently distributed TCM syndrome element is Qi deficiency， with the rest mainly being fire heat， Yin deficiency， Yang deficiency， phlegm dampness， blood stasis， and Qi stagnation. Deficiency syndrome may be a major factor leading to carotid artery plaques in the high-risk population of stroke. The BP neural network model demonstrates better performance in predicting the risk of carotid artery plaques in the high-risk population of stroke. People with carotid artery plaques are more likely to present with symptoms such as a heavy head， dizziness， headache， and thready pulse. The primary community benefits more widely when the BP neural network model is adopted to predict the risk of carotid artery plaques in the high-risk population of stroke over 40 years old.

Objective To identify the key factors affecting the risk of medical surges and their coupling relation5 ships,providing strategic support for medical institutions to optimize risk management and emergency governance.Methods 17 influencing factors were determined based on WSR theory,and an expert scoring method was employed to assess the impact strength among the factors.The DEMATEL method was applied to calculate the centrality,cau5 sality,influence,and being influenced degrees of the influencing factors.The ISM method was used to construct a hierarchical structure of the influencing factors related to medical surge risks,thereby revealing the connections and interaction mechanisms among these factors.Results Seven critical influencing factors were identified,including the crisis decision-making capacity and leadership effectiveness of emergency managers,the completeness of the emer5 gency system and dynamic execution capabilities,and the cross-departmental coordination mechanism and com5 mand collaboration efficiency.Deep driving factors and coupling pathways were also revealed.Conclusion The risk of medical surges exhibits multi-factorial coupling cascade effects;attention should be directed towards the construc5 tion of mid-to-deep level mechanisms such as information systems,institutional frameworks,and organizational management,to enhance targeted capabilities and systemic resilience in risk governance.

Objective To explore the coupling mechanism between medical surge response resources and the spread of secondary risks during public health emergencies,as well as the effectiveness of relevant interventions.Methods Based on complex network theory,a dual-layer network model of medical resources and secondary events was constructed.The interactive feedback between medical resource status and secondary event risk,as well as the effects of network structure,were analyzed through MATLAB simulations,REPAST agent-based modeling,and mean-field analysis.Results Simulation and prediction results show that an increase in first-layer resource-deficient nodes significantly raises the activation rate and transmission speed of secondary events,while the clustering and spread of secondary events in the second layer,in turn,intensify resource depletion,creating a negative feedback loop.Mean-field analysis indicates a nonlinear positive correlation between the adequacy of medical resources and the likelihood of secondary events.Network structure analysis reveals that when the average node degree exceeds 8,resource allocation efficiency improves markedly.Conclusion There exists a dynamic coupling and bidirectional feedback relationship between medical resource status and secondary event risks.Enhancing the flexible allocation and responsiveness of medical resources,improving multi-sectoral collaborative monitoring and coordinated regulation,optimizing network connectivity and coordination mechanisms for resource distribution,and establishing dynamic monitoring and tiered early warning systems are key strategies for strengthening the resilience of healthcare systems and effectively containing the spread of secondary events.

Objective To define the conceptual connotation of network dynamic collaboration capacity in medical surge response and construct its theoretical model.Methods A mixed concept analysis method was employed,integrating multidisciplinary literature and collecting empirical evidence through semi-structured expert interviews to extract the concept of network dynamic collaboration capacity in medical surge response.By integrating complex systems,network science,synergetics,and dynamic capability theory,and combining the interview results,the study used the analogy of flood control in hydraulic engineering to develop a"network-dynamic-collaboration"triangular capacity theoretical model.Results It reveals one antecedents(sudden external shocks have led to an abnormal and continuous surge in medical demand),six core attributes(information interconnection accessibility,dynamic resource adaptability,risk perception responsiveness,multi-party collaborative interactivity,service process adaptability elasticity,and learning iterative evolution),and four consequences(mitigation of crowding risk,protection of service continuity,minimization of crisis spillover,and enhancement of system resilience)for the network dynamic collaboration capacity in medical surge response.The theoretical model elucidates the coupling mechanisms among network structural resilience,dynamic regulation processes,and collaborative co-evolution in resisting medical surge.Conclusion The new concept and theoretical model proposed in this study deepen the understanding of medical surge response system mechanisms and offer a theoretical framework and practical guidance for strengthening the full-chain resilience of health emergency systems.