Objective To develop a predictive model for postoperative mortality risk in patients with acute aortic dissection(AAD)using the Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost)algorithm combined with Shapley Additive Explanation(SHAP),and to establish a prediction website to serve as a diagnostic and therapeutic support platform for clinicians and patients.Methods A retrospective cohort study design was adopted.Data from 782 AAD patients who underwent surgical treatment at the Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University from January 2013 to December 2023 were collected,including basic information and initial serum biomarker test results.Patients were randomly divided into training and test sets at a 7:3 ratio.An external validation set consisting of 313 AAD patients admitted to the Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University from January 2020 to December 2023 was also established for further model validation.Variables were screened using LASSO regression,and an XGBoost machine learning model was constructed and interpreted using SHAP.The predictive performance of the model was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve analysis.Using the Shiny package,the XGBoost model was deployed to shinyapps.io to create a prediction website for postoperative mortality risk in AAD patients.One patient was selected by simple random sampling from the test set and the external validation set respectively for the prediction example on the Shiny webpage.Results The XGBoost model demonstrated high predictive performance for postoperative mortality in AAD patients,with area under the ROC curve(AUC)values of 0.928(95%CI 0.901-0.956)in the training set,0.919(95%CI 0.891-0.949)in the test set,and 0.941(95%CI 0.915-0.967)in the external validation set.SHAP values indicated the following order of variable importance in the model(from highest to lowest):"lactate dehydrogenase""blood chlorine""multiple organ injury""carbon dioxide combining power""prothrombin time""α-hydroxybutyric acid""creatine kinase isoenzyme""Stanford classification""combined use of bedside blood purification""gender""acute kidney injury""gastrointestinal bleeding""brain injury"and"shock".A risk prediction website for adverse postoperative outcomes in AAD patients was developed using XGBoost-SHAP method(https://dun-dunxiaolu.shinyapps.io/document/)and validated with examples.One randomly selected patient from each of the test and external validation sets was applied:the predicted mortality risk value for patient 1(who died postoperatively)was 0.9539,and that for patient 2(who survived postoperatively)was 0.0206.Conclusions The XGBoost-SHAP model demonstrates high accuracy in predicting postoperative mortality risk for AAD patients.The online prediction tool established based on this model enhances the identification efficiency of high-risk postoperative mortality patients.

Objective: To analyze the trends of the age of menarche among Chinese Han girls aged 9 to 18 years from 2010 to 2019. Methods: Data were extracted from the Chinese National Surveys on Students' Constitution and Health in 2010, 2014 and 2019. A total of 253 037 Han girls aged 9 to 18 years with complete data on menarche were selected in this study. They were asked one-on-one about their menstrual status, age and residence information. The median age of menarche was estimated by probability regression. U tests were used to compare the difference in median age at menarche in different years. Results: The median age at menarche (95%CI) among Chinese Han girls was 12.47 (12.09-12.83) years in 2010, 12.17 (11.95-12.38) years in 2014 and 12.05 (10.82-13.08) years in 2019, respectively. Compared with that in 2010, the median age at menarche in 2019 decreased by 0.42 years (U=-77.27, P<0.001). The annual average changes were -0.076 years from 2010 to 2014 (U=-57.19, P<0.001) and -0.023 years from 2014 to 2019 (U=-21.41, P<0.001), respectively. The average annual changes in urban areas in the periods of 2010 to 2014 and 2014 to 2019 were -0.071 years and 0.006 years, respectively, while those in rural areas were -0.082 years and -0.053 years, respectively. The average annual changes in the regions of north, northeast, east, south central, southwest and northwest were -0.064, -0.099, -0.091, -0.080, -0.096 and -0.041 years in the period of 2010 to 2014 and 0.001, -0.040, -0.002, -0.005, -0.043 and -0.081 years in the period of 2014 to 2019. Conclusion: The age of menarche among Chinese Han girls aged 9 to 18 years shows an advanced trend from 2010 to 2019, and the trends in urban and rural areas and different regions have different characteristics.
Female ; Humans ; Menarche ; Probability ; East Asian People ; Child ; Adolescent

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the association between outdoor artificial light-at-night (ALAN) exposure and overweight and obesity among children and adolescents aged 9 to 18 years in China. METHODS: Using follow-up data of 5 540 children and adolescents aged 9 to 18 years conducted from November 2019 to November 2020 in eight provinces of China, latitude and longitude were determined based on school addresses, and the mean monthly average nighttime irradiance at the location of 116 schools was extracted by the nearest neighbor method to obtain the mean outdoor ALAN exposure [unit: nW/(cm²·sr)] for each school. Four indicators of overweight and obesity outcomes were included: Baseline overweight and obesity, persistent overweight and obesity, overweight and obesity progression and overweight and obesity incidence. Mixed effects Logistic regression was used to explore the association between ALAN exposure levels (divided into quintiles Q1-Q5) and baseline overweight and obesity, persistent overweight and obesity, overweight and obesity progression and overweight and obesity incidence. In addition, a natural cubic spline function was used to explore the exposure response association between ALAN exposure (a continuous variable) and the outcomes. RESULTS: The prevalence of baseline overweight and obesity, persistent overweight and obesity, overweight and obesity progression and overweight and obesity incidence among the children and adolescents in this study were 21.6%, 16.3%, 2.9% and 12.8%, respectively. The OR value for the association between ALAN exposure and baseline overweight and obesity was statistically significant when ALAN exposure levels reached Q4 or Q5, 1.90 (95%CI: 1.26-2.86) and 1.77 (95%CI: 1.11-2.83), respectively, compared with the children and adolescents in the Q1 group of ALAN exposure. Similar to the results for baseline overweight and obesity, the OR values for the association with persistent overweight and obesity were 1.89 (95%CI: 1.20-2.99) and 1.82 (95%CI: 1.08-3.06) when ALAN exposure levels reached Q4 or Q5, respectively, but none of the OR values for the association between ALAN and overweight and obesity progression and overweight and obesity incidence were statistically significant. Fitting a natural cubic spline function showed a non-linear trend between ALAN exposure and persistent overweight and obesity. CONCLUSION There is a positive association between ALAN exposure and overweight and obesity in children and adolescents, and the promotion of overweight obesity in children and adolescents by ALAN tends to have a cumulative effect rather than an immediate effect. In the future, while focusing on the common risk factors for overweight and obesity in children and adolescents, there is a need to improve the overweight and obesity-causing nighttime light exposure environment.
Humans ; Adolescent ; Child ; Overweight/etiology* ; Pediatric Obesity/etiology* ; Light Pollution ; Risk Factors ; China/epidemiology*

Objective: To analyze the trends of the age of menarche among Chinese Han girls aged 9 to 18 years from 2010 to 2019. Methods: Data were extracted from the Chinese National Surveys on Students' Constitution and Health in 2010, 2014 and 2019. A total of 253 037 Han girls aged 9 to 18 years with complete data on menarche were selected in this study. They were asked one-on-one about their menstrual status, age and residence information. The median age of menarche was estimated by probability regression. U tests were used to compare the difference in median age at menarche in different years. Results: The median age at menarche (95%CI) among Chinese Han girls was 12.47 (12.09-12.83) years in 2010, 12.17 (11.95-12.38) years in 2014 and 12.05 (10.82-13.08) years in 2019, respectively. Compared with that in 2010, the median age at menarche in 2019 decreased by 0.42 years (U=-77.27, P<0.001). The annual average changes were-0.076 years from 2010 to 2014 (U=-57.19, P<0.001) and-0.023 years from 2014 to 2019 (U=-21.41, P<0.001), respectively. The average annual changes in urban areas in the periods of 2010 to 2014 and 2014 to 2019 were-0.071 years and 0.006 years, respectively, while those in rural areas were-0.082 years and-0.053 years, respectively. The average annual changes in the regions of north, northeast, east, south central, southwest and northwest were-0.064, -0.099, -0.091, -0.080, -0.096 and-0.041 years in the period of 2010 to 2014 and 0.001, -0.040, -0.002, -0.005, -0.043 and-0.081 years in the period of 2014 to 2019. Conclusion: The age of menarche among Chinese Han girls aged 9 to 18 years shows an advanced trend from 2010 to 2019, and the trends in urban and rural areas and different regions have different characteristics.

Objective: To analyze the long-term trend of the age of spermarche among Chinese Han boys aged 11 to 18 from 2010 to 2019 and its association with nutritional status. Methods: The data from Chinese National Surveys on Students' Constitution and Health in 2010, 2014 and 2019 were used. The age, residence and spermarche of the participants were collected by questionnaire, and their height and weight were measured. A total of 184 633 Han boys aged 11‒18 years with complete data on spermarche, height, and weight were included in this study. The probability regression method was used to calculate the median age (95%CI) at spermarche in different areas, and the trend of age at spermarche in different groups was compared. The multivariate logistic regression model was used to analyze the association between nutritional status and spermarche of Chinese Han boys aged 11‒18 years. Results: The median age of spermarche (95%CI) was 13.85 (13.45-14.22) years old among Chinese Han boys aged 11‒18 years in 2019, with 0.18 years earlier than that in 2010. The median age at spermarche in urban and rural boys was 13.89 and 13.81 years, respectively. Compared with that in 2010, the age at spermarche in urban and rural boys was 0.08 and 0.27 years earlier, respectively. After adjusting for age, province and urban/rural areas, compared with normal weight, spermarche was negatively associated with wasting and positively associated with overweight and obesity, with OR (95%CI) about 0.73 (0.67-0.80), 1.09 (1.02-1.17) and 1.09 (1.01-1.18), respectively. Conclusion: The age of spermarche generally shows an advanced trend among Chinese Han boys and is associated with nutritional status.

Objective: To analyze the trend of the detection rate of myopia among Chinese Han children and adolescents aged 7-18 years from 2010 to 2019. Methods: Data from the Chinese National Survey on Students' Constitution and Health in 2010, 2014 and 2019 were used, and about 213 833, 212 742 and 209 942 Han students aged 7-18 years were included in this study. The χ² test was used to compare the differences in the prevalence of myopia among the subgroups in the survey year, and logistic regression was used to compare the differences in the prevalence of myopia between different years. A curve-fitting method was used to obtain the growth rate of myopia among Han Chinese students from 2010 to 2019, and the differences in the change of myopia between different age groups were analyzed. Results: In 2019, the overall detection rate of myopia among Chinese Han children and adolescents aged 7-18 was 60.1%. The detection rate of urban students (62.7%) was higher than that of rural students (57.4%) and the detection rate of girls (63.5%) was higher than that of boys (56.7%). In 2019, the regional disparities were large in the detection rate of myopia in various provinces, with the lowest in Guizhou (49.6%) and the highest in Zhejiang (71.3%). The detection rate of myopia showed an upward trend from 2010 to 2019, from 55.5% in 2010 to 57.1% in 2014, and finally to 60.1% in 2019. The gap in the detection rate of myopia between urban and rural children and adolescents gradually shrank. The average annual growth rate of myopia detection rate from 2014 to 2019 was 0.6 percentage points per year, higher than that from 2010 to 2014 about 0.4 percentage points per year. The peak age of the growth rate of myopia detection rate decreased from 12 years in 2010 to 10 years in 2014, and finally to 7 years in 2019. Conclusions: The detection rate of myopia among Chinese Han children and adolescents is still at a high level, and the peak age of the growth rate of myopia detection rate continues to advance.

Objective: To analyze the perceived exercise benefits and barriers and their association with physical activity time in Chinese Han children and adolescents aged 9-18 years. Methods: Data were extracted from the 2019 Chinese National Survey on Students' Constitution and Health and a total of 163 656 children and adolescents aged 9-18 years in Han ethnic group were included in the analysis. Mann-Whitney U test and Kruskal-Wallis test were used to compare the perceived exercise benefits score, perceived exercise barriers score and perceived exercise benefits to barriers ratio in the children and adolescents with different demographic characteristics and physical activity time. The differences in physical activity time in subgroups were compared with χ² tests. log-binomial regression model was used to evaluate the association between physical activity time and perceived exercise benefits and barriers. Results: The M (Q₁,Q₃) of the perceived exercise benefits score, perceived exercise barriers score, and perceived exercise benefits to barriers ratio in the children and adolescents were 4.11 (3.78, 4.78), 2.70 (2.10, 3.20) and 1.55 (1.22, 2.07), respectively. Children and adolescents living in urban area, boys, those at younger age and those with physical activity time ≥1 hour had higher perceived exercise benefits score and perceived exercise benefits to barriers ratio, but lower perceived exercise barriers score (all P<0.001). The prevalence of physical activity time ≥1 hour was 41.4% in the children and adolescents. In the log-binomial model with two variables of perceived exercise benefits score and perceived exercise barriers score, for each 1-point increase in the perceived exercise benefits, the possibility of physical activity time ≥1 hour increased by 11% (OR=1.11, 95%CI: 1.10-1.12), and for each 1-point increase in the perceived exercise barriers, the possibility of physical activity time ≥1 hour decreased by 15% (OR=0.85, 95%CI: 0.84-0.85). In the log-binomial model with variable of perceived exercise benefits to barriers ratio, for each 1-point increase in the perceived exercise benefits to barriers ratio, the possibility of physical activity time ≥1 hour increased by 12% (OR=1.12, 95%CI: 1.11-1.12). Conclusion: The perceived exercise benefits and barriers are significantly associated with physical activity time in children and adolescents in China.
Adolescent ; Child ; Humans ; Male ; Asian People ; China ; Ethnicity ; Exercise ; Students ; Female

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the mortality of injuries among children and adolescents aged 5 to 24 in China from 1990 to 2019, and to provide the theoretical basis for the formulation of policies related to injury prevention. METHODS: The mortality data of children and adolescents aged 5 to 24 years in China between 1990 and 2019 were obtained from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019, and the change in mortality between 1990 and 2019 was described. Age-period-cohort analysis was utilized to determine the age effect, period effect and cohort effect for road injuries, drowning and self-harm. RESULTS: Injury mortality of Chinese children and adolescents aged 5 to 24 years decreased from 46.22 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 40.88-52.12] per 100 000 to 20.36 (95%UI: 17.58-23.38) per 100 000 between 1990 and 2019. Sub-group analysis revealed a pattern that was basically consistent with the overall trend. From 1990 to 2019, drowning declined from the first leading cause of injury death among children and adolescents aged 5 to 24 years in China to the second while road injuries became the one which caused the most death among them, and self-harm was the third leading cause of injury death. The top three causes of injury death in each subgroup were basically the same as the overall, but the order was different in each subgroup. Age-period-cohort analysis showed that the death risk of road injuries, drowning, and self-harm all decreased with period and cohort. Aside from that, the death risk of road injuries showed a U-shape trend, which decreased at first but increased soon afterwards, with the increase of age, while the death risk of drowning decreased with age and the death risk of self-harm increased with age. CONCLUSION In China, the injuries mortality among children and adolescents aged 5 to 24 years has decreased over the last three decades. However, specific cause-related injury deaths, manifested differently in different sub-groups. Targeted policies and intervention should be proposed to reduce the mortality of children and adolescents in accordance with the characteristics of injuries death in different genders and age groups.
Adolescent ; Asians ; Cause of Death ; Child ; China/epidemiology* ; Drowning ; Female ; Global Burden of Disease ; Humans ; Infant ; Male ; Wounds and Injuries

AIM: To understand the status of poor vision and analyze the main influencing factors among primary and secondary school students in a division of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, and provide a scientific basis for prevention and control of poor vision.METHODS: A total of 12 primary and secondary schools in a divisional urban district and regiment field of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps were chosen using stratified cluster random sampling from August to October 2020. A total of 2 982 primary and secondary school students were selected for visual inspections and questionnaires. Logistic regression analysis was used to explore the influencing factors of poor vision.RESULTS: The rate of poor vision was 65.66% among 2 982 primary and secondary school students in the division of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, with the majority severe poor vision. Furthermore, the rates of poor vision were higher in girls(70.17%)than that in boys(61.47%)(χ2=4.993, P<0.001)and the urban area(70.03%)were higher than the rural area(58.96%)(χ2=38.680, P<0.001)and the Han nationality students(66.83%)were higher than Uyghur students(52.82%)(χ2=19.772, P<0.001). The risk of poor vision increased with age(χ2trend =300.144, P<0.001), and by the age group ≥18 years old, the rate of poor vision reached 80.47%. The results of the multivariate analysis showed that the women, the age≥13 years old, writing and reading duration every day ≥2h, cram school on weekends and presence of myopia in parents increases the risk of poor vision, increase the outdoor exercise time, sleep time ≥8h, and do eye exercises every day can reduce the occurrence of poor vision.CONCLUSION: Poor vision rate of primary and secondary school students in the division of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps is higher than that of many regions in the country. Girls with the age(≥13 years old)whose parents are myopic should receive special attention. Increasing outdoor exercise time, doing eye exercises every day, and keeping your eyes more than one foot away from books when reading and writing is effective in preventing poor vision.

Overweight/obesity has become one of the major public health problems among children and adolescents all over the world. The current screening standards for overweight and obesity in children and adolescents are not unified. It is easy to make mistakes and inefficient to evaluate item by item or develop self-written packages. Taking the"Screening standards for overweight and obesity in Chinese school-age children and adolescents"as an example, this study introduced four methods and procedures for evaluating overweight and obesity among children and adolescents from the world and China and described their application methods in combination with specific cases. At the same time, the SPSS and SAS packages were compiled and the specific application steps were explained, so that users could correctly and quickly screen overweight and obesity among children and adolescents, and conduct horizontal comparisons of similar studies across different regions.
Adolescent ; Body Mass Index ; Child ; China ; Humans ; Overweight ; Pediatric Obesity/diagnosis* ; Prevalence