1.Rapid health technology assessment of deucravacitinib in the treatment of moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis
Xing GAO ; Shujing KONG ; Tianya LIU ; Xinran QIU ; Jia HAN
China Pharmacy 2026;37(1):111-116
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the efficacy, safety and cost-effectiveness of deucravacitinib in the treatment of moderate- to-severe plaque psoriasis. METHODS Rapid health technology assessment (HTA) reports, systematic reviews (SR)/meta- analyses, and pharmacoeconomic studies on deucravacitinib for the treatment of moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis were identified by searching PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, CNKI, Wanfang data and official HTA websites. The search time frame spanned from database inception to July 2025. After literature screening, data extraction, and quality assessment, the study results were subjected to descriptive analysis and synthesis. RESULTS A total of 14 articles were finally included, consisting of 1 HTA report, 10 SR/meta-analyses, and 3 pharmacoeconomic studies. Regarding efficacy, deucravacitinib demonstrated superior efficacy to both placebo and apremilast, with significantly higher response rates for Psoriasis Area and Severity Index 50/75/90/100, Static Physician’ s Global Assessment 0/1, and Dermatology Life Quality Index 0/1, as well as greater reduction in Psoriasis Symptoms and Signs Diary Score (P<0.05). Regarding safety, deucravacitinib was well-tolerated. Although the overall incidence of adverse events (AEs) was higher than placebo, it was not significantly different from apremilast. Moreover, the incidence of serious AEs and the rate of discontinuation due to AEs did not differ significantly from placebo (P>0.05). Regarding cost-effectiveness, deucravacitinib proved to be more cost-effective than apremilast across multiple healthcare system perspectives, including those of the United States, Japan, and China. CONCLUSIONS Deucravacitinib exhibits favorable efficacy, safety, and cost-effectiveness in the treatment of moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis. Additional real-world studies are warranted to further refine its evaluation.
2.Regulatory Effect of Danhe Granules on Oxidative Stress in Rats with Mixed Hyperlipidemia
Jingke MENG ; Susu LIU ; Pan GAO ; Mingjiao JIA ; Bochao JIA ; Qingzheng XING ; Yulong CHEN ; Wei WANG ; Xinlou CHAI
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(10):112-122
ObjectiveTo investigate the therapeutic mechanism of Danhe granules in treating mixed hyperlipidemia based on network pharmacology, as well as animal and cell experiments. MethodsThe active compounds and targets of Danhe granules were screened using the Traditional Chinese Medicine Systems Pharmacology Database and Analysis Platform (TCMSP) and the Encyclopedia of Traditional Chinese Medicine (ETCM). Related targets for mixed hyperlipidemia were obtained from the GeneCards database. The intersecting targets were subjected to Gene Ontology (GO) functional annotation and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathway enrichment analyses. A high-fat model was established in human hepatocellular carcinoma cells (HepG2) induced by palmitic acid (PA), followed by intervention with Danhe granules to assess intracellular lipid accumulation and oxidative stress levels. A mixed hyperlipidemia rat model was also established and divided into low-, medium-, and high-dose Danhe granules groups (1.134, 2.268, and 4.536 g·kg-1, respectively), as well as a positive control group treated with pravastatin sodium (4.020 mg·kg-1). After eight weeks of intervention, serum lipid levels, inflammatory factors, oxidative stress indices, and the expression of key hepatic lipid metabolism-related proteins were determined. ResultsNetwork pharmacology identified 93 intersecting targets between Danhe granules and mixed hyperlipidemia, with peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma (PPARG), peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor alpha (PPARA), tumor necrosis factor (TNF), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and IL-1B among the key nodes. The PPAR signaling pathway, AGE/RAGE signaling pathway, lipid metabolism, atherosclerosis and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) were among the most significantly enriched pathways. Cellular experiments demonstrated that Danhe granules significantly reduced reactive oxygen species (ROS) and malondialdehyde (MDA) levels while increasing catalase (CAT) activity (P<0.05), thereby alleviating intracellular lipid accumulation and triglyceride (TG) content in HepG2. In animal experiments, Danhe granules markedly decreased serum total cholesterol (TC), TG, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels (P<0.05), reduced hepatic MDA levels, and elevated superoxide dismutase (SOD) and CAT levels. Histological analysis showed alleviation of hepatic steatosis, upregulation of hepatic PPARA and lipoprotein lipase (LPL) expressions, and downregulation of sterol regulatory element-binding protein 1 (SREBP1) expression (P<0.05, P<0.01). ConclusionDanhe granules improve lipid metabolism disorders in mixed hyperlipidemia by reducing MDA levels, enhancing SOD and CAT activities, scavenging excessive ROS, inhibiting oxidative stress, and mitigating liver injury. The underlying mechanism may involve the upregulation of PPARA and LPL and the suppression of SREBP1 expression.
3.Regulatory Effect of Danhe Granules on Oxidative Stress in Rats with Mixed Hyperlipidemia
Jingke MENG ; Susu LIU ; Pan GAO ; Mingjiao JIA ; Bochao JIA ; Qingzheng XING ; Yulong CHEN ; Wei WANG ; Xinlou CHAI
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(10):112-122
ObjectiveTo investigate the therapeutic mechanism of Danhe granules in treating mixed hyperlipidemia based on network pharmacology, as well as animal and cell experiments. MethodsThe active compounds and targets of Danhe granules were screened using the Traditional Chinese Medicine Systems Pharmacology Database and Analysis Platform (TCMSP) and the Encyclopedia of Traditional Chinese Medicine (ETCM). Related targets for mixed hyperlipidemia were obtained from the GeneCards database. The intersecting targets were subjected to Gene Ontology (GO) functional annotation and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathway enrichment analyses. A high-fat model was established in human hepatocellular carcinoma cells (HepG2) induced by palmitic acid (PA), followed by intervention with Danhe granules to assess intracellular lipid accumulation and oxidative stress levels. A mixed hyperlipidemia rat model was also established and divided into low-, medium-, and high-dose Danhe granules groups (1.134, 2.268, and 4.536 g·kg-1, respectively), as well as a positive control group treated with pravastatin sodium (4.020 mg·kg-1). After eight weeks of intervention, serum lipid levels, inflammatory factors, oxidative stress indices, and the expression of key hepatic lipid metabolism-related proteins were determined. ResultsNetwork pharmacology identified 93 intersecting targets between Danhe granules and mixed hyperlipidemia, with peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma (PPARG), peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor alpha (PPARA), tumor necrosis factor (TNF), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and IL-1B among the key nodes. The PPAR signaling pathway, AGE/RAGE signaling pathway, lipid metabolism, atherosclerosis and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) were among the most significantly enriched pathways. Cellular experiments demonstrated that Danhe granules significantly reduced reactive oxygen species (ROS) and malondialdehyde (MDA) levels while increasing catalase (CAT) activity (P<0.05), thereby alleviating intracellular lipid accumulation and triglyceride (TG) content in HepG2. In animal experiments, Danhe granules markedly decreased serum total cholesterol (TC), TG, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels (P<0.05), reduced hepatic MDA levels, and elevated superoxide dismutase (SOD) and CAT levels. Histological analysis showed alleviation of hepatic steatosis, upregulation of hepatic PPARA and lipoprotein lipase (LPL) expressions, and downregulation of sterol regulatory element-binding protein 1 (SREBP1) expression (P<0.05, P<0.01). ConclusionDanhe granules improve lipid metabolism disorders in mixed hyperlipidemia by reducing MDA levels, enhancing SOD and CAT activities, scavenging excessive ROS, inhibiting oxidative stress, and mitigating liver injury. The underlying mechanism may involve the upregulation of PPARA and LPL and the suppression of SREBP1 expression.
4.Mechanistic Interpretation of Zheng’s San Qi San Powder in Treating Skeletal Muscle Injury via Bioinformatics Prediction, Chemical Analysis and Experimental Verification
Ding-Rui WANG ; Yun-Xin LIU ; Jun-Jie XU ; Liu YANG ; Jia-Hao LÜ ; Cheng-Yuan XING ; Lei LÜ ; Bei-Bei QIE
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2026;53(4):1028-1047
ObjectiveZheng’s San Qi San (ZSQS) power, a classic traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) formula, is used for treating soft tissue injuries involving muscles, tendons, and ligaments. However, its underlying therapeutic mechanisms remain unclear. This study aimed to screen and identify pharmaceutically active ingredients and their candidate biomolecule targets, and further elucidate the molecular mechanism of ZSQS in the treatment of skeletal muscle injury. MethodsNetwork pharmacology was employed to construct “ZSQS-component-target”, “protein-protein interaction (PPI)” and “active ingredient-core protein-pathway” networks to predict the key active ingredients and potential core targets of ZSQS for skeletal muscle injury. The predicted results were then validated via microarray data from the GEO database. Molecular docking was then performed to assess the binding ability between the screened active ingredients of ZSQS and the candidate core targets. Moreover, liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) was used for qualitative and quantitative analysis to verify the active components of the drug and ZSQS serum. Finally, an animal model of eccentric exercise-induced skeletal muscle injury and a myotube cell model of oxidative stress-induced injury were established to validate the effects of ZSQS and its interventional effects on the biological functions of critical targets, thereby demonstrating the potential therapeutic mechanism of ZSQS. ResultsAmong the 111 active components identified in ZSQS and their corresponding 204 targets related to the skeletal muscle injury repair process, 14 core targets (including AKT1) and 4 core active components (quercetin, luteolin, kaempferol, and β‑sitosterol) were screened out, while the corresponding metabolites of quercetin, luteolin and kaempferol were detected in the ZSQS serum. Among these targets, 5 candidate genes (IL-6, CASP3, HIF1A, STAT3, and JUN) overlapped with the differential expression screening results with GEO data, and IL-6 was confirmed to be enriched in the PI3K/AKT pathway. Combined with the prediction results of the AKT expression levels, these findings suggest that the phosphorylation level of AKT1 plays a core role in the therapeutic mechanism of ZSQS. Molecular docking analysis further revealed that the PH domain of AKT1 had high binding energy with all 4 core active components, as verified by LC-MS. Finally, animal model studies have shown the promoting effect of ZSQS administration on skeletal muscle injury repair and its possible antioxidant damage mechanism. Cell model studies further demonstrated that ZSQS-containing serum, core active ingredient combination therapy, and quercetin monomer could increase the phosphorylation level of AKT, promote the nuclear translocation of Nrf2, upregulate the expression of downstream antioxidant enzymes (SOD, GPx, and GR), and inhibit the expression of inflammatory factors (IL-6 and TNF-α), thereby alleviating oxidative stress and the inflammatory response. ConclusionZSQS alleviates skeletal muscle injury mainly by activating the AKT/Nrf2 signaling pathway, enhancing cellular antioxidant and anti-inflammatory capabilities. The results of this study provide a scientific basis for the clinical application and modernized development of ZSQS.
5.Survey of post-discharge exercise behavior and analysis of factors influencing exercise intensity in patients undergoing lung surgery
Hongyu ZENG ; Xiang WANG ; Tian ZHANG ; Yaqin WANG ; Xing WEI ; Zhen DAI ; Liping ZHANG ; Xiaoqin LIU ; Qiang LI ; Qiuling SHI ; Wei DAI ; Jia LIAO
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2026;33(05):734-742
Objective To investigate the post-discharge exercise behavior and factors influencing moderate to vigorous intensity physical activity (MVPA) in patients undergoing lung surgery. Methods A total of 2874 patients from the large prospective, observational perioperative lung symptom study cohort (CN-PRO-Lung 3) in the Department of Thoracic Surgery at Sichuan Cancer Hospital between April 7, 2021, and January 31, 2024, were selected as the survey subjects. A survey was conducted using the Investigation of Exercise Behavior after Lung Surgery questionnaire and the International Physical Activity Questionnaire-Short Form (IPAQ-SF) among patients who underwent lung surgery. Binary logistic regression was used to analyze the factors influencing patients’ engagement in MVPA. Results A total of 702 patients were surveyed, including 252 males and 450 females, with an average age of (52.4±10.2) years. Patients with lung cancer accounted for 85.9%. Only 36.0% of the patients had regular exercise habits, while 42.3% did not engage in any physical activity. The three main barriers for postoperative exercise were physical discomfort (pain, coughing, shortness of breath, etc, 54.7%), lack of professional guidance (41.7%), and concerns about the surgical wound (28.9%). The proportions of patients engaging in vigorous, moderate, and low-intensity physical activity were 5.7%, 28.2%, and 66.1%, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that patients with a personal annual income ≥50000 yuan (OR=1.52, 95%CI 1.01-2.29, P=0.044), high school education or above (OR=1.92, 95%CI 1.33-2.76, P<0.001), and lobectomy (OR=1.44, 95%CI 1.02-2.03, P=0.037) engaged in more MVPA. Conclusion Patients undergoing lung surgery have inadequate physical activity after discharge, particularly lacking in MVPA. Patients with higher income, higher educational levels, and lobectomy are more frequently engaged in MVPA. Measures such as symptom control, providing exercise guidance, and enhancing education on wound care may potentially improve the inadequate physical activity in lung surgery patients after discharge.
6.Jianpi Xiao'ai Prescription Inhibits Colorectal Cancer Progression by Inducing Mitochondrial Dysfunction via Modulation of iNOS-ARG1 Axis
Xing LUO ; Bo PAN ; Jianfeng FU ; Jia HUANG ; Wei PENG ; Fang LIU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(13):99-111
ObjectiveTo investigate the mechanism by which Jianpi Xiao'ai prescription (JPXAP) inhibits colorectal cancer progression by regulating the inducible nitric oxide synthase-arginase 1 (iNOS-ARG1) metabolic axis and inducing mitochondrial reactive oxygen species (mito-ROS)-mediated mitochondrial structural and functional impairment. MethodsAn arginine metabolism disorder model of human colorectal cancer HCT116 cells was established by combined treatment with recombinant human interferon-γ (IFN-γ, 10 μg·L-1) and N(ω)-hydroxy-L-arginine (Nor-NOHA, 200 μmol·L-1) for 24 h, followed by intervention with 5%, 10%, or 20% JPXAP-containing serum. Cell proliferation was assessed using cell counting kit-8 (CCK-8), 5-ethynyl-2′-deoxyuridine (EdU) staining, and colony formation assays. Cell invasion and migration were evaluated using Transwell chamber and wound healing assays. Mitochondrial membrane potential (MMP) and ROS levels were assessed by JC-1 and MitoSOX staining, respectively. Mitochondrial ultrastructure was observed by transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The expression of iNOS, ARG1, and mitochondrial dynamics-related proteins, including mitofusin 2 (MFN2) and dynamin-related protein 1 (DRP1), was analyzed by Western blot and immunofluorescence. The levels of L-arginine, citrulline, and urea were determined by colorimetric methods and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). ResultsCompared with the blank group, the model group exhibited significantly upregulated iNOS expression, downregulated ARG1 expression, a decreased ARG1/iNOS ratio, reduced L-arginine and urea levels, and increased citrulline levels (P<0.05). Meanwhile, mito-ROS accumulation was significantly increased, the JC-1 red/green fluorescence ratio was decreased, and mitochondria showed swelling and cristae disruption, indicating that metabolic disorder induced mitochondrial injury. Compared with the model group, all JPXAP-treated groups further decreased the ARG1/iNOS ratio, enhanced nitric oxide (NO) and reactive nitrogen species accumulation, further reduced L-arginine and urea levels, and increased citrulline levels (P<0.01). EdU-positive rate, colony formation rate, wound healing rate, and Transwell invasion number all decreased significantly with increasing serum concentration (P<0.01). Mito-ROS levels were further elevated, and the JC-1 red/green ratio further decreased. TEM revealed aggravated mitochondrial swelling and vacuolization. MFN2 expression was downregulated and DRP1 expression was upregulated (P<0.01),in a dose-dependent manner. ConclusionJPXAP further activates NO-mediated oxidative/nitrosative stress under arginine metabolism imbalance, inducing mito-ROS accumulation, MMP collapse, and mitochondrial dynamics imbalance, thereby inhibiting colorectal cancer cell proliferation and migration. These findings reveal an antitumor mechanism of JPXAP based on coordinated targeting of the "metabolism-mitochondria" axis.
7.Integrated Transcriptomic Landscape and Deep Learning Based Survival Prediction in Uterine Sarcomas
Yaolin SONG ; Guangqi LI ; Zhenqi ZHANG ; Yinbo LIU ; Huiqing JIA ; Chao ZHANG ; Jigang WANG ; Yanjiao HU ; Fengyun HAO ; Xianglan LIU ; Yunxia XIE ; Ding MA ; Ganghua LI ; Zaixian TAI ; Xiaoming XING
Cancer Research and Treatment 2025;57(1):250-266
Purpose:
The genomic characteristics of uterine sarcomas have not been fully elucidated. This study aimed to explore the genomic landscape of the uterine sarcomas (USs).
Materials and Methods:
Comprehensive genomic analysis through RNA-sequencing was conducted. Gene fusion, differentially expressed genes (DEGs), signaling pathway enrichment, immune cell infiltration, and prognosis were analyzed. A deep learning model was constructed to predict the survival of US patients.
Results:
A total of 71 US samples were examined, including 47 endometrial stromal sarcomas (ESS), 18 uterine leiomyosarcomas (uLMS), three adenosarcomas, two carcinosarcomas, and one uterine tumor resembling an ovarian sex-cord tumor. ESS (including high-grade ESS [HGESS] and low-grade ESS [LGESS]) and uLMS showed distinct gene fusion signatures; a novel gene fusion site, MRPS18A–PDC-AS1 could be a potential diagnostic marker for the pathology differential diagnosis of uLMS and ESS; 797 and 477 uterine sarcoma DEGs (uDEGs) were identified in the ESS vs. uLMS and HGESS vs. LGESS groups, respectively. The uDEGs were enriched in multiple pathways. Fifteen genes including LAMB4 were confirmed with prognostic value in USs; immune infiltration analysis revealed the prognositic value of myeloid dendritic cells, plasmacytoid dendritic cells, natural killer cells, macrophage M1, monocytes and hematopoietic stem cells in USs; the deep learning model named Max-Mean Non-Local multi-instance learning (MMN-MIL) showed satisfactory performance in predicting the survival of US patients, with the area under the receiver operating curve curve reached 0.909 and accuracy achieved 0.804.
Conclusion
USs harbored distinct gene fusion characteristics and gene expression features between HGESS, LGESS, and uLMS. The MMN-MIL model could effectively predict the survival of US patients.
8.Clinical efficacy of laparoscopic left hemi-fundoplication for gastroesophageal reflux disease
Weixue ZHANG ; Guolei LI ; Hao FENG ; Yuan LIU ; Lihui JIA ; Haiyan BAI ; Wei XING ; Zhao XU
Chinese Journal of Digestive Surgery 2025;24(10):1333-1337
Objective:To explore the clinical efficacy of laparoscopic left hemi-fundoplica-tion for gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD).Method:The retrospective and descriptive study was conducted. The clinical data of 45 patients with GERD who were admitted to Hebei Provincial Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine from July 2019 to July 2022 were collected. There were 26 males and 19 females, aged (46±12) years. All patients underwent laparoscopic left hemi-fundoplication. Observation indicators: (1) intraoperative and postoperative conditions; (2) follow-up. Measurement data with normal distribution were expressed as Mean± SD. Count data were expressed as absolute numbers. The paired samples t-test was used for comparison of indicators before and after surgery. Result:(1) Intraoperative and postoperative conditions. All 45 patients successfully underwent the operation, with no conversion to open surgery or intraoperative complications. The operation time was (86±8)minutes, volume of intraoperative blood loss was (12±3)mL, and time to postoperative first flatus was (2.2±0.8)days. Among the 45 patients after surgery, 4 cases had fever, 3 cases had retrosternal dull pain and discomfort, 4 cases had dysphagia, 3 cases had abdominal distension, and 5 cases had constipation. All these symptoms were cured or relieved spontaneously after sympto-matic treatment. The duration of postoperative hospital stay was (3.5±0.5)days. There was no patient with infection, delayed bleeding or perforation.(2) Follow-up. All 45 patients were followed up for 1 year after surgery, with no recurrence of GERD. Gastroscopy showed no esophageal mucosal damage such as erosion or ulcer, and no hiatal hernia occurred. Before surgery, the reflux symptom index score, GERD questionnaire score, reflux disease questionnaire score, lower esophageal sphincter resting pressure, and DeMeester score of 24-hour esophageal pH monitoring were 24.3±1.9, 12.5±2.1,20.1±4.5, (7.1±1.1)mmHg (1 mmHg=0.133 kPa), and 31.4±6.4, respectively. At 1 year after surgery, the above indicators were 2.2±0.7, 6.5±0.5, 4.0±2.6, (23.2±2.9)mmHg, and 6.0±1.4, respectively. There were significant differences before and after surgery ( t=80.75, 18.70,20.09, -33.45, 26.15, P<0.05). Conclusion:Laparoscopic left hemi-fundoplication is safe and feasible for GERD, which can improve the clinical symptoms of patients.
9.A Novel Scorpion Toxin LmKTx13 Inhibits the Voltage-gated Potassium Channel Kv1.3
Jia-Xin QIN ; Xiao-Qing LUO ; Min-Juan LU ; Jun-Xian JU ; Qing ZHOU ; Wen-Xing WANG ; Zhong-Hua LIU ; Min-Zhi CHEN ; Xi ZHOU
Chinese Journal of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology 2025;41(10):1392-1401
Kv1.3,a voltage-gated potassium channel,is highly expressed in T lymphocytes,the nervous system,and vascular smooth muscle cells.It plays a critical role in membrane excitability and electrical signal transduction,serving as an important target for studying T-cell function and providing a promising direction for developing therapeutics against autoimmune and inflammatory diseases.Therefore,the de-velopment of specific inhibitors of Kv1.3 channel has emerged as a novel therapeutic strategy for these disorders.In this study,we isolated and purified a novel Kv1.3-inhibitory peptide toxin,LmKTx13,from the venom of the scorpion Lychas mucronatus using reversed-phase high-performance liquid chroma-tography(RP-HPLC).LmKTx13 consists of 38 amino acid residues,including six cysteines that form three disulfide bonds.Whole-cell patch-clamp recordings revealed that LmKTx13 potently inhibited Kv1.3 with an IC50 of 7.92±3.0 nmol/L.Selectivity analysis showed that 2 μmol/L LmKTx13 also in-hibited Kv1.2 and Kv1.7,but exhibited no significant effects on other potassium channel subtypes or voltage-gated sodium channels.Further investigation into the mechanism demonstrated that LmKTx13 acts as a pore-blocking inhibitor of Kv1.3.By analyzing the effects of LmKTx13 on Kv1.3 channel gating ki-netics and performing sequence alignment of the pore regions of Kv1.3 and Kv1.5,we constructed site-directed mutants and identified the pore region of Kv1.3 as the critical binding site for LmKTx13.Key residues involved in the interaction included T425,G427,and H451.In summary,we discovered a no-vel pore-blocking Kv1.3 inhibitor,LmKTx13,from L.mucronatus venom,which exhibits high affinity and selectivity for Kv1.3.These findings highlight its potential as a potential lead molecule for developing Kv1.3-targeted therapeutics.
10.Prediction analysis of incidence trend and age-period-cohort model of esophageal cancer in cancer registration areas of Gansu Province from 2010 to 2021
Lu LIU ; Jiahe ZHU ; Jia WANG ; Bolun ZHANG ; Dehao XING ; Gaoheng DING ; Xingmin WEI ; Yuqin LIU
Practical Oncology Journal 2025;39(5):393-399
Objective The aim of this study was to analyze the incidence trend and age-specific characteristics of esophage-al cancer in cancer registration areas of Gansu Province from 2010 to 2021,and predict the incidence of esophageal cancer from 2022 to 2030.Methods Based on the incidence data of esophageal cancer in 15 cancer registries in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2021,the incidence was calculated by age,sex,urban and rural areas.The age-standardized incidence by Chinese standard population(ASIRC)was standardized using the 2000 Chinese standard population.Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the change trend of esophageal cancer incidence,and the average annual percentage change(AAPC)was calculated to quantify the overall rate of change.A birth cohort model was constructed to analyze incidence trend of different birth groups from 1930 to 2021,and the Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)model was used to predict incidence.Results From 2010 to 2021,the ASIRC of esophageal cancer in Gansu Province showed a significant downward trend(AAPC=-14.47%,95%CI:-18.72%--9.99%,P<0.001).The ASIRC in men decreased at an annual rate of 13.02%(AAPC=-13.02%,95%CI:-17.28%--8.54%,P<0.001),the incidence of esophage-al cancer in women at a rate of 15.80%per year(AAPC=-15.80%,95%CI:-20.69%--10.61%,P<0.001).The ASIRC of e-sophageal cancer in urban areas decreased at an annual rate of 15.32%(AAPC=-15.32%,95%CI:-21.04%--9.18%,P<0.001);ASIRC of esophageal cancer in rural areas decreased at a rate of 5.33%per year(AAPC=-5.33%,95%CI:-8.94%--1.58%,P<0.001).From 2010 to 2021,the incidence of esophageal cancer in all age groups showed a significant downward trend(AAPC:-19.59%to-9.18%).The birth cohort analysis revealed that the incidence of esophageal cancer in people over 40 years old in the province,men,women,urban and rural areas showed a downward trend with increase of birth years.BAPC model predicted that that the ASIRC of esophageal cancer for the total province population,men and women would decrease from 6.47/100,000,10.02/100,000,and 2.95/100,000 in 2021 to 1.31/100,000,1.72/100,000,and 0.91/100,000 in 2030,respectively.Conclu-sions The incidence of esophageal cancer in Gansu Province showed a downward trend from 2010 to 2021,but men and rural areas were still the focus of high incidence.The prediction indicates that the incidence of esophageal cancer in Gansu Province will further decline by 2030,suggesting that the prevention and control measures have achieved results;however,it is still necessary to strengthen the intervention and long-term monitoring of high-risk groups.

Result Analysis
Print
Save
E-mail