INTRODUCTION: The 30-day readmission rate for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a common performance metric but may be confounded by factors unrelated to quality of care. Our aim was to assess how sociodemographic factors, multimorbidity and frailty impact 30-day readmission risk after COPD hospitalisation, and whether risk adjustment alters interpretation of temporal trends. METHOD: This is a retrospective analysis of administra-tive data from October 2017 to June 2023 from Changi General Hospital, Singapore. Multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression models were used to estimate unadjusted and risk-adjusted 30-day readmission odds. Covariates included age, sex, race, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) and year. Temporal trends in readmission risk were compared across unadjusted and adjusted models. RESULTS: Of the 2774 admissions, 749 (27%) resulted in 30-day readmissions. Higher CCI (CCI≥4 versus [vs] CCI=1: adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.00, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.33-2.99, P=0.003; CCI 2-3 vs CCI=1: aOR 1.50, 95% CI 1.15-1.96, P=0.001) and higher HFRS (≥5 vs <5: aOR 1.29, 95% CI 1.01-1.65, P=0.04) were independently associated with increased readmission risk. While unadjusted analyses showed no significant temporal trends, the risk-adjusted model revealed a 32-35% reduction in readmission odds in 2021-2023 compared to baseline. CONCLUSION Multimorbidity and frailty significantly impact COPD readmissions. Risk adjustment revealed improvements in readmission risk not evident in unadjusted analyses, emphasising the importance of applying risk adjustments to ensure valid performance metrics.
Humans ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/therapy* ; Patient Readmission/trends* ; Male ; Female ; Retrospective Studies ; Aged ; Singapore/epidemiology* ; Multimorbidity ; Frailty/epidemiology* ; Middle Aged ; Risk Adjustment ; Aged, 80 and over ; Logistic Models ; Risk Factors

INTRODUCTION: Singapore's enhanced surveillance programme for COVID-19 identifies and isolates hospitalised patients with acute respiratory symptoms to prevent nosocomial spread. We developed risk prediction models to identify patients with low risk for COVID-19 from this cohort of hospitalised patients with acute respiratory symptoms. METHODS: This was a single-centre retrospective observational study. Patients admitted to our institution's respiratory surveillance wards from 10 February to 30 April 2020 contributed data for analysis. Prediction models for COVID-19 were derived from a training cohort using variables based on demographics, clinical symptoms, exposure risks and blood investigations fitted into logistic regression models. The derived prediction models were subsequently validated on a test cohort. RESULTS: Of the 1,228 patients analysed, 52 (4.2%) were diagnosed with COVID-19. Two prediction models were derived, the first based on age, presence of sore throat, dormitory residence, blood haemoglobin level (Hb), and total white blood cell counts (TW), and the second based on presence of headache, contact with infective patients, Hb and TW. Both models had good diagnostic performance with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.934 and 0.866, respectively. Risk score cut-offs of 0.6 for Model 1 and 0.2 for Model 2 had 100% sensitivity, allowing identification of patients with low risk for COVID-19. Limiting COVID-19 screening to only elevated-risk patients reduced the number of isolation days for surveillance patients by up to 41.7% and COVID-19 swab testing by up to 41.0%. CONCLUSION Prediction models derived from our study were able to identify patients at low risk for COVID-19 and rationalise resource utilisation.
Humans ; COVID-19/epidemiology* ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Hospitalization ; Logistic Models ; Retrospective Studies ; Hemoglobins

The solitary pulmonary nodule on chest X-ray (CXR) is a common problem in pulmonary medicine. Its presence raises the question of lung cancer. As five-year survival after resection of a solitary bronchogenic carcinoma can be as high as 80%, prompt evaluation is crucial. This should begin with a cancer risk assessment based on clinical and radiographic factors. The risk and benefits of surgery should next be assessed, and together with the patient's preferences, a management plan can be decided upon. Surgery is recommended for patients at high risk of malignancy with a low surgical risk, while careful observation is adopted for patients at low risk of malignancy coupled with a high surgical risk. Further diagnostic tests may be warranted to aid in this decision process. Although CXR is not useful for lung cancer screening, low-dose computed tomography imaging is increasingly recommended for individuals at high risk for lung cancer.
Aged ; Diagnostic Imaging ; methods ; Humans ; Lung Diseases ; diagnosis ; Lung Neoplasms ; diagnosis ; Middle Aged ; Pulmonary Medicine ; methods ; Radiography ; methods ; Radiography, Thoracic ; methods ; Risk Assessment ; methods ; Risk Factors ; Solitary Pulmonary Nodule ; diagnosis