1.Study of school influenza epidemic prediction based on Bayesian Structural Time Series model and multi-source data integration
Huiyang SUN ; Qiuying LYU ; Fengjuan CHEN ; Honglin WANG ; Yanpeng CHENG ; Zhigao CHEN ; Zhen ZHANG ; Ling YIN ; Xuan ZOU
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2025;46(7):1188-1195
Objective:To analyze the spatiotemporal correlation between the surveillance data of influenza in students reported by medical institutions and school absenteeism due to illness, and evaluate the application of Bayesian Structural Time Series model (BSTS) in the prediction of school influenza epidemic.Methods:A total of 13 schools in Dapeng new district of Shenzhen were selected. The incidence data of influenza in schools in Shenzhen from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2019 were collected from China Disease Control and Prevention Information System and the illness related school absentence data during this period were collected from Shenzhen Student Health Surveillance System, and the spatiotemporal correlation between the data from two systems was analyzed and compared. BSTS was used to make long-term predictions of the monthly incidence of influenza in students in 2019 and short-term predictions of the weekly incidence of influenza in week 1-8 and week 45-52 of 2019 by using the data from two systems.Results:There was a temporal correlation between the data from China Disease Control and Prevention Information System and the data from Shenzhen Student Health Surveillance System ( r=0.93, P<0.001), and the lag of the former one was 1 day ( r=0.73, P<0.001). Influenza outbreaks were randomly distributed in different schools in Shenzhen, and there was no spatial correlation. The root mean square error ( RMSE) and mean absolute error ( MAE) were 0.35 and 0.28, respectively, in the long-term prediction, and the RMSE was 0.33 and 0.34, and the MAE was 0.26 and 0.28, respectively, in the short-term predictions of week 1-8 and week 45-52 of 2019, respectively, showing good prediction accuracy and fitting effect. Conclusion:By analyzing the data from China Disease Control and Prevention Information System and Shenzhen Student Health Surveillance System with BSTS, the dynamics of the school influenza epidemic can be accurately predicted, and effective technical support can be provided for the early warning and prevention and control of influenza epidemic.
2.Design and application of one piece temperature controlled enema device
Yu LI ; Huiyang SUN ; Yanjiang LIU ; Tong JIN ; Ze LI ; Yan BAI
Chinese Journal of Practical Nursing 2025;41(17):1290-1295
Objective:To design a safe and convenient temperature-controlled enema device and to verify its effectiveness in enema operation.Methods:This study was a quasi experimental research. A total of 60 patients who were hospitalized in Jilin Provincial Cancer Hospital from October 2023 to January 2024 were selected as the control group, and 60 patients who underwent enema from February to May 2024 were selected as the experimental group adopting convenience sampling method. The control group used traditional enema operation method, while the experimental group used an integrated temperature controlled enema device for enema operation. The heating time of enema solution, retention time of enema solution in the intestine, patient satisfaction rate, and nursing staff satisfaction rate were compared between the two groups before enema operation.Results:There were 39 males and 21 females in the control group, aged (54.78 ± 10.66) years, and 42 males and18 females in the experimental group, aged (56.15 ± 9.88) years. The warming time of enema fluid in the experimental group was 17.00 (15.25, 18.00) s, which was lower than 55.00 (47.00, 59.75) s in the control group, and the difference was statistically significant ( Z = - 9.47, P<0.01). The intraintestinal retention time of enema fluid in the experimental group was 9.50 (9.00, 10.00) min, which was greater than 7.00 (6.00, 8.75) min in the control group, and the difference was statistically significant ( Z = - 7.93, P<0.01); the satisfaction rate of the experimental group was 96.67% (58/60), which was higher than 73.33% (44/60) in the control group, and the difference was statistically significant ( χ2 = 12.81, P<0.01); the satisfaction rate of the nursing staff in the experimental group was 96.00% (48/50), which was higher than 66.00% (33/50) in the control group, and the difference was statistically significant ( χ2 = 14.62, P<0.01). Conclusions:The integrated temperature-controlled enema device reduces the tediousness of nursing operation. It improves the rate of complete preparation of goods, patient satisfaction and nursing staff satisfaction, thereby ensuring efficacy and patient safety.
3.Study of school influenza epidemic prediction based on Bayesian Structural Time Series model and multi-source data integration
Huiyang SUN ; Qiuying LYU ; Fengjuan CHEN ; Honglin WANG ; Yanpeng CHENG ; Zhigao CHEN ; Zhen ZHANG ; Ling YIN ; Xuan ZOU
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2025;46(7):1188-1195
Objective:To analyze the spatiotemporal correlation between the surveillance data of influenza in students reported by medical institutions and school absenteeism due to illness, and evaluate the application of Bayesian Structural Time Series model (BSTS) in the prediction of school influenza epidemic.Methods:A total of 13 schools in Dapeng new district of Shenzhen were selected. The incidence data of influenza in schools in Shenzhen from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2019 were collected from China Disease Control and Prevention Information System and the illness related school absentence data during this period were collected from Shenzhen Student Health Surveillance System, and the spatiotemporal correlation between the data from two systems was analyzed and compared. BSTS was used to make long-term predictions of the monthly incidence of influenza in students in 2019 and short-term predictions of the weekly incidence of influenza in week 1-8 and week 45-52 of 2019 by using the data from two systems.Results:There was a temporal correlation between the data from China Disease Control and Prevention Information System and the data from Shenzhen Student Health Surveillance System ( r=0.93, P<0.001), and the lag of the former one was 1 day ( r=0.73, P<0.001). Influenza outbreaks were randomly distributed in different schools in Shenzhen, and there was no spatial correlation. The root mean square error ( RMSE) and mean absolute error ( MAE) were 0.35 and 0.28, respectively, in the long-term prediction, and the RMSE was 0.33 and 0.34, and the MAE was 0.26 and 0.28, respectively, in the short-term predictions of week 1-8 and week 45-52 of 2019, respectively, showing good prediction accuracy and fitting effect. Conclusion:By analyzing the data from China Disease Control and Prevention Information System and Shenzhen Student Health Surveillance System with BSTS, the dynamics of the school influenza epidemic can be accurately predicted, and effective technical support can be provided for the early warning and prevention and control of influenza epidemic.
4.Design and application of one piece temperature controlled enema device
Yu LI ; Huiyang SUN ; Yanjiang LIU ; Tong JIN ; Ze LI ; Yan BAI
Chinese Journal of Practical Nursing 2025;41(17):1290-1295
Objective:To design a safe and convenient temperature-controlled enema device and to verify its effectiveness in enema operation.Methods:This study was a quasi experimental research. A total of 60 patients who were hospitalized in Jilin Provincial Cancer Hospital from October 2023 to January 2024 were selected as the control group, and 60 patients who underwent enema from February to May 2024 were selected as the experimental group adopting convenience sampling method. The control group used traditional enema operation method, while the experimental group used an integrated temperature controlled enema device for enema operation. The heating time of enema solution, retention time of enema solution in the intestine, patient satisfaction rate, and nursing staff satisfaction rate were compared between the two groups before enema operation.Results:There were 39 males and 21 females in the control group, aged (54.78 ± 10.66) years, and 42 males and18 females in the experimental group, aged (56.15 ± 9.88) years. The warming time of enema fluid in the experimental group was 17.00 (15.25, 18.00) s, which was lower than 55.00 (47.00, 59.75) s in the control group, and the difference was statistically significant ( Z = - 9.47, P<0.01). The intraintestinal retention time of enema fluid in the experimental group was 9.50 (9.00, 10.00) min, which was greater than 7.00 (6.00, 8.75) min in the control group, and the difference was statistically significant ( Z = - 7.93, P<0.01); the satisfaction rate of the experimental group was 96.67% (58/60), which was higher than 73.33% (44/60) in the control group, and the difference was statistically significant ( χ2 = 12.81, P<0.01); the satisfaction rate of the nursing staff in the experimental group was 96.00% (48/50), which was higher than 66.00% (33/50) in the control group, and the difference was statistically significant ( χ2 = 14.62, P<0.01). Conclusions:The integrated temperature-controlled enema device reduces the tediousness of nursing operation. It improves the rate of complete preparation of goods, patient satisfaction and nursing staff satisfaction, thereby ensuring efficacy and patient safety.
5.Effects of individualized dosing regimen on blood trough concentration of vancomycin and renal function in critically ill patients
Huaidong PENG ; Ruichang ZHANG ; Shijing GUO ; Qilin YANG ; Xiuman SUN ; Zequn LAI ; Ruolun WANG
China Pharmacy 2023;34(13):1611-1616
OBJECTIVE To investigate the effects of individualized dosing regimen on blood trough concentration of vancomycin and renal function in critically ill patients. METHODS According to relevant guidelines and the results of Vancomycin Calculator, clinical pharmacists formulated an individualized dosing regimen of vancomycin including loading dose and maintenance dose for critically ill patients based on the two independent variables of body weight and creatinine clearance rate. Using the method of retrospective study, patients who were admitted to the department of intensive care unit (ICU) of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University and used the regimen from July 2018 to December 2021 were selected as the trial group, and patients who were treated with vancomycin and received blood drug concentration monitoring in ICU from January 2015 to June 2018 were recruited in the control group. The difference in trough concentration distribution and the incidence of acute kidney injury (AKI) after medication were compared between the two groups, the change of serum creatinine before and after medication in the trial group was analyzed. RESULTS Totally 197 patients were included in the trial group and 144 patients were in the control group. There was no significant difference between the two groups in the clinical information (gender, age, body weight, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ score, the proportion of patients with renal insufficiency, etc.) (P>0.05). The proportions of major infection sites (including lung, urinary, abdominal, blood and central nervous system) and treatment type (target or empirical treatment) also had no significant difference between the two groups (P>0.05). There was no significant difference in the attainment rate of ideal trough concentration (15-20 μg/mL) and the proportion of patients with trough concentration >20 μg/mL between the two groups (P>0.05), while the attainment rate of target trough concentration (10-20 μg/mL) and the proportion of patients with trough concentration <10 μg/mL were significantly different between the two groups (P<0.05). The attainment rate of target trough concentration in patients with chronic renal insufficiency in trial group was significantly higher than that in control group (P<0.05). There was no significant difference in the incidence of AKI and vancomycin-associated AKI between the two groups (P>0.05). In the trial group with medication duration ≥7 days , the level of serum creatinine on the 7th day of treatment was increased significantly, compared with that on the 3rd day of treatment (P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS This individualized dosing regimen can improve the attainment rate of target trough concentration of vancomycin in critically ill patients, especially those with chronic renal insufficiency, during the first standardized monitoring, and not increase the risk of renal injury compared with previous empirical medication.
7.Highly efficient base editing in human tripronuclear zygotes.
Changyang ZHOU ; Meiling ZHANG ; Yu WEI ; Yidi SUN ; Yun SUN ; Hong PAN ; Ning YAO ; Wanxia ZHONG ; Yixue LI ; Weiping LI ; Hui YANG ; Zi-Jiang CHEN
Protein & Cell 2017;8(10):772-775

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