1.Structural identification for in vivo metabolites of proanthocyanidin B_2.
Wen-Hui ZHAO ; Hui-Ting TANG ; Jun LI ; Yue-Lin SONG ; Ke ZHANG ; Yun-Fang ZHAO
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(10):2841-2852
Proanthocyanidin B_2(PAC-B_2), a polyphenolic dimeric compound comprising two epicatechin molecules linked by a C-C bond, is extensively found in traditional Chinese medicines, with anti-tumor and anti-oxidant activities. Given the limited bioavailability, a thorough investigation and comprehensive understanding of PAC-B_2 metabolism in vivo are essential for elucidating therapeutic forms and mechanisms. In the present study, ultra-performance liquid chromatography coupled with quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometry(UPLC-Q-TOF-MS) in the negative ion mode was employed to acquire the MS/MS information of PAC-B_2 and metabolites in urine and feces samples of the rats administrated with PAC-B_2. Online energy-resolved MS(ER-MS) was applied as supplementary to obtain the full collision energy ramp-MS~2 spectra(FCER-MS~2) of isomers-of-interest, which implied comprehensive MS~2 information of targeted compounds. Finally, the possible metabolic pathways of PAC-B_2 in rats were proposed. The primary fragmentation behaviors of PAC-B_2 in the negative ion mode included quinone methide fission between C_4-C_8 bond, retro Diels-Alder cracking of F-ring, heterocyclic ring fission of C-ring, and neutral loss of small molecules such as H_2O. A total of 25 metabolites were tentatively elucidated in urine and feces samples of rats administrated with PAC-B_2 by fragmentation pattern and reported literature. Two groups of isomers, M3/M4/M5 and M9/M11, were confirmatively differentiated based on the relationships between optimal collision energy provided by FCER-MS~2 and bond properties, including bond length and bond dissociation energy. In addition to the ring-opening and methylation, PAC-B_2 could also be metabolized into epicatechin and low molecular weight phenolic acids, which were subsequently subjected to dehydroxylation, ring-opening, methylation, sulfation, and glucuronidation. The structural information provided by online ER-MS and FCER-MS~2 enabled the differentiation of isomers and improved the identification confidence. More importantly, the present study deeply analyzes the in vivo metabolic pathways of PAC-B_2, providing a basis for the research on the pharmacological mechanism of this compound.
Animals
;
Proanthocyanidins/urine*
;
Rats
;
Male
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/chemistry*
;
Rats, Sprague-Dawley
;
Tandem Mass Spectrometry
;
Chromatography, High Pressure Liquid
;
Feces/chemistry*
;
Molecular Structure
2.Cinobufacini Inhibits Survival and Metastasis of Hepatocellular Carcinoma via c-Met Signaling Pathway.
Ya-Nan MA ; Xue-Mei JIANG ; Xi-Qi HU ; Ling WANG ; Jian-Jun GAO ; Hui LIU ; Fang-Hua QI ; Pei-Pei SONG ; Wei TANG
Chinese journal of integrative medicine 2025;31(4):311-325
OBJECTIVE:
To investigate the anti-tumor effects of cinobufacini (CINO) on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) induced by des-gamma-carboxy-prothrombin (DCP) and to uncover the underlying mechanisms.
METHODS:
The inhibitory effect of CINO on HCC cell proliferation was evaluated using the cell counting kit-8 method, and the apoptosis rate was quantified using flow cytometry. Immunofluorescence and Western blot analyses were used to investigate the differential expression of proteins associated with cell growth, apoptosis, migration, and invasion pathways after CINO treatment. The therapeutic potential of CINO for HCC was confirmed, and the possibility of combining cinobufacini with c-Met inhibitor for the treatment of primary HCC was further validated by in vivo experiments.
RESULTS:
Under the induction of DCP, CINO inhibited the activity of HCC cells, induced apoptosis, and inhibited migration and invasion. Upon the induction of DCP, CINO regulated c-Met activation and the activation of the phosphatidylinositol-3 kinase/protein kinase B (PI3K/AKT) and mitogen-activated protein kinase kinase/extracellular signal-regulated kinase (MEK/ERK) pathways. In a mouse model of HCC, CINO exhibited significant antitumor effects by inhibiting the phosphorylation of c-Met and the downstream PI3K/AKT and MEK/ERK pathways in tumor tissues.
CONCLUSIONS
CINO inhibited HCC cell growth, promoted apoptosis, and suppressed HCC cell invasion and migration by targeting c-Met and PI3K/AKT and MEK/ERK signaling pathways under DCP induction.
Carcinoma, Hepatocellular/drug therapy*
;
Proto-Oncogene Proteins c-met/metabolism*
;
Liver Neoplasms/drug therapy*
;
Signal Transduction/drug effects*
;
Animals
;
Humans
;
Cell Movement/drug effects*
;
Apoptosis/drug effects*
;
Cell Proliferation/drug effects*
;
Amphibian Venoms/therapeutic use*
;
Cell Line, Tumor
;
Neoplasm Metastasis
;
Cell Survival/drug effects*
;
Proto-Oncogene Proteins c-akt/metabolism*
;
Phosphatidylinositol 3-Kinases/metabolism*
;
Neoplasm Invasiveness
;
Mice, Inbred BALB C
;
Mice, Nude
;
Mice
;
Male
;
Bufanolides/therapeutic use*
;
Protein Precursors
;
Prothrombin
;
Biomarkers
3.Glucocorticoid Discontinuation in Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis under Background of Chinese Medicine: Challenges and Potentials Coexist.
Chuan-Hui YAO ; Chi ZHANG ; Meng-Ge SONG ; Cong-Min XIA ; Tian CHANG ; Xie-Li MA ; Wei-Xiang LIU ; Zi-Xia LIU ; Jia-Meng LIU ; Xiao-Po TANG ; Ying LIU ; Jian LIU ; Jiang-Yun PENG ; Dong-Yi HE ; Qing-Chun HUANG ; Ming-Li GAO ; Jian-Ping YU ; Wei LIU ; Jian-Yong ZHANG ; Yue-Lan ZHU ; Xiu-Juan HOU ; Hai-Dong WANG ; Yong-Fei FANG ; Yue WANG ; Yin SU ; Xin-Ping TIAN ; Ai-Ping LYU ; Xun GONG ; Quan JIANG
Chinese journal of integrative medicine 2025;31(7):581-589
OBJECTIVE:
To evaluate the dynamic changes of glucocorticoid (GC) dose and the feasibility of GC discontinuation in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients under the background of Chinese medicine (CM).
METHODS:
This multicenter retrospective cohort study included 1,196 RA patients enrolled in the China Rheumatoid Arthritis Registry of Patients with Chinese Medicine (CERTAIN) from September 1, 2019 to December 4, 2023, who initiated GC therapy. Participants were divided into the Western medicine (WM) and integrative medicine (IM, combination of CM and WM) groups based on medication regimen. Follow-up was performed at least every 3 months to assess dynamic changes in GC dose. Changes in GC dose were analyzed by generalized estimator equation, the probability of GC discontinuation was assessed using Kaplan-Meier curve, and predictors of GC discontinuation were analyzed by Cox regression. Patients with <12 months of follow-up were excluded for the sensitivity analysis.
RESULTS:
Among 1,196 patients (85.4% female; median age 56.4 years), 880 (73.6%) received IM. Over a median 12-month follow-up, 34.3% (410 cases) discontinued GC, with significantly higher rates in the IM group (40.8% vs. 16.1% in WM; P<0.05). GC dose declined progressively, with IM patients demonstrating faster reductions (median 3.75 mg vs. 5.00 mg in WM at 12 months; P<0.05). Multivariate Cox analysis identified age <60 years [P<0.001, hazard ratios (HR)=2.142, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.523-3.012], IM therapy (P=0.001, HR=2.175, 95% CI: 1.369-3.456), baseline GC dose ⩽7.5 mg (P=0.003, HR=1.637, 95% CI: 1.177-2.275), and absence of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs use (P=0.001, HR=2.546, 95% CI: 1.432-4.527) as significant predictors of GC discontinuation. Sensitivity analysis (545 cases) confirmed these findings.
CONCLUSIONS
RA patients receiving CM face difficulties in following guideline-recommended GC discontinuation protocols. IM can promote GC discontinuation and is a promising strategy to reduce GC dependency in RA management. (Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, No. NCT05219214).
Adult
;
Aged
;
Female
;
Humans
;
Male
;
Middle Aged
;
Arthritis, Rheumatoid/drug therapy*
;
Glucocorticoids/therapeutic use*
;
Medicine, Chinese Traditional
;
Retrospective Studies
4.Role of neoadjuvant rectal score in prognosis and adjuvant chemotherapy decision-making in locally advanced rectal cancer following neoadjuvant short-course radiotherapy and consolidation chemotherapy
Qiang ZENG ; Yuan TANG ; Haitao ZHOU ; Ning LI ; Wenyang LIU ; Silin CHEN ; Shuai LI ; Ningning LU ; Hui FANG ; Shulian WANG ; Yueping LIU ; Yongwen SONG ; Yexiong LI ; Jing JIN
Chinese Journal of Oncology 2024;46(4):335-343
Objectives:To assess the prognostic impact of the neoadjuvant rectal (NAR) score following neoadjuvant short-course radiotherapy and consolidation chemotherapy in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC), as well as its value in guiding decisions for adjuvant chemotherapy.Methods:Between August 2015 and August 2018, patients were eligible from the STELLAR phase III trial (NCT02533271) who received short-course radiotherapy plus consolidation chemotherapy and for whom the NAR score could be calculated. Based on the NAR score, patients were categorized into low (<8), intermediate (8-16), and high (>16) groups. The Kaplan-Meier method, log rank tests, and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to evaluate the impact of the NAR score on disease-free survival (DFS).Results:Out of the 232 patients, 24.1%, 48.7%, and 27.2% had low (56 cases), intermediate (113 cases), and high NAR scores (63 cases), respectively. The median follow-up period was 37 months, with 3-year DFS rates of 87.3%, 68.3%, and 53.4% ( P<0.001) for the low, intermediate, and high NAR score groups. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that the NAR score (intermediate NAR score: HR, 3.10, 95% CI, 1.30-7.37, P=0.011; high NAR scores: HR=5.44, 95% CI, 2.26-13.09, P<0.001), resection status ( HR, 3.00, 95% CI, 1.64-5.52, P<0.001), and adjuvant chemotherapy ( HR, 3.25, 95% CI, 2.01-5.27, P<0.001) were independent prognostic factors for DFS. In patients with R0 resection, the 3-year DFS rates were 97.8% and 78.0% for those with low and intermediate NAR scores who received adjuvant chemotherapy, significantly higher than the 43.2% and 50.6% for those who did not ( P<0.001, P=0.002). There was no significant difference in the 3-year DFS rate (54.2% vs 53.3%, P=0.214) among high NAR score patients, regardless of adjuvant chemotherapy. Conclusions:The NAR score is a robust prognostic indicator in LARC following neoadjuvant short-course radiotherapy and consolidation chemotherapy, with potential implications for subsequent decisions regarding adjuvant chemotherapy. These findings warrant further validation in studies with larger sample sizes.
5.Clinical characteristics and genetics functional analysis of two children with Spinal muscular atrophy
Wenchen HUANG ; Jinli BAI ; Hong WANG ; Yuwei JIN ; Xiaoyin PENG ; Xiushan GE ; Hui JIAO ; Yujin QU ; Fang SONG
Chinese Journal of Medical Genetics 2024;41(10):1187-1194
Objective:To explore the characteristics of SMN1 gene variants and carry out functional verification for two children with Spinal muscular atrophy (SMA). Methods:Two male children with complicated SMA diagnosed at the Children′s Hospital Affiliated to Capital Institute of Pediatrics respectively in July 2021 and April 2022 due to delayed or retrograde motor development were selected as the study subjects. Clinical data of the children were collected. Primary culture of skin fibroblasts was carried out, and peripheral blood samples were collected from both children and their parents. Multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification, combined long-range PCR and nested PCR, and Sanger sequencing were carried out to detect the copy number and variants of the SMN1 gene. Absolute quantitative real-time PCR, Western blotting and immunofluorescence were used to determine the transcriptional level of the SMN gene, expression of the SMN protein, and the number of functional SMN protein complexes (gems body), respectively. This study was approved by Medical Ethics Committee of the Children′s Hospital Affiliated to Capital Institute of Pediatrics (Ethics No. SHERLLM2021009). Results:Child 1, a 1-year-old boy, was clinically diagnosed with type 1 SMA. Child 2, a 2-and-a-half-year-old boy, was clinically diagnosed with type 3 SMA. Both children were found to harbor a paternally derived SMN1 deletion and a maternally derived SMN1 gene variant, namely c. 824G>T (p.Gly275Val) and c. 884A>T (p.*295Leu). Compared with the normal controls and carriers, the levels of full-length SMN1 transcripts in their peripheral blood and skin fibroblast cell lines were significantly decreased ( P<0.05), and the levels of SMN protein normalized to that of β-actin, and the numbers of gems bodies in the primary fibroblast cells were also significantly lower ( P<0.05). Based on the guidelines from the American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics, both variants were classified as likely pathogenic (PS3+ PM3+ PM5+ PP3; PS3+ PM3+ PM4+ PP3). Following the diagnosis, both children had received nusinersen treatment. Although their motor function was improved, child 1 still died at the age of 2 due to severe pulmonary infection. The walking ability of child 2 was significantly improved, and his prognosis appeared to be good. Conclusion:Two cases of clinically complicated SMA have been confirmed by genetic testing and experimental studies, which has provided a reference for their accurate treatment.
6.Role of neoadjuvant rectal score in prognosis and adjuvant chemotherapy decision-making in locally advanced rectal cancer following neoadjuvant short-course radiotherapy and consolidation chemotherapy
Qiang ZENG ; Yuan TANG ; Haitao ZHOU ; Ning LI ; Wenyang LIU ; Silin CHEN ; Shuai LI ; Ningning LU ; Hui FANG ; Shulian WANG ; Yueping LIU ; Yongwen SONG ; Yexiong LI ; Jing JIN
Chinese Journal of Oncology 2024;46(4):335-343
Objectives:To assess the prognostic impact of the neoadjuvant rectal (NAR) score following neoadjuvant short-course radiotherapy and consolidation chemotherapy in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC), as well as its value in guiding decisions for adjuvant chemotherapy.Methods:Between August 2015 and August 2018, patients were eligible from the STELLAR phase III trial (NCT02533271) who received short-course radiotherapy plus consolidation chemotherapy and for whom the NAR score could be calculated. Based on the NAR score, patients were categorized into low (<8), intermediate (8-16), and high (>16) groups. The Kaplan-Meier method, log rank tests, and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to evaluate the impact of the NAR score on disease-free survival (DFS).Results:Out of the 232 patients, 24.1%, 48.7%, and 27.2% had low (56 cases), intermediate (113 cases), and high NAR scores (63 cases), respectively. The median follow-up period was 37 months, with 3-year DFS rates of 87.3%, 68.3%, and 53.4% ( P<0.001) for the low, intermediate, and high NAR score groups. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that the NAR score (intermediate NAR score: HR, 3.10, 95% CI, 1.30-7.37, P=0.011; high NAR scores: HR=5.44, 95% CI, 2.26-13.09, P<0.001), resection status ( HR, 3.00, 95% CI, 1.64-5.52, P<0.001), and adjuvant chemotherapy ( HR, 3.25, 95% CI, 2.01-5.27, P<0.001) were independent prognostic factors for DFS. In patients with R0 resection, the 3-year DFS rates were 97.8% and 78.0% for those with low and intermediate NAR scores who received adjuvant chemotherapy, significantly higher than the 43.2% and 50.6% for those who did not ( P<0.001, P=0.002). There was no significant difference in the 3-year DFS rate (54.2% vs 53.3%, P=0.214) among high NAR score patients, regardless of adjuvant chemotherapy. Conclusions:The NAR score is a robust prognostic indicator in LARC following neoadjuvant short-course radiotherapy and consolidation chemotherapy, with potential implications for subsequent decisions regarding adjuvant chemotherapy. These findings warrant further validation in studies with larger sample sizes.
7.Analysis of the epidemic characteristics of reported pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Kashgar Prefecture, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from 2015 to 2022 and establishment of SARIMA prediction
Chong TENG ; Fang XIE ; Bing ZHAO ; Lijie ZHANG ; Hui LI ; Yuanyuan SONG ; Yang ZHENG ; Yang ZHOU ; Jing WANG ; Fei HUANG ; Mingting CHEN ; Xichao OU
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2024;58(11):1665-1672
Objective:To analyze the epidemic characteristics of reported tuberculosis incidence in Kashgar from 2015 to 2022, and use the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to predict the incidence, providing references for the local control of pulmonary tuberculosis.Methods:The reported incidence data of tuberculosis in the Kashgar area of Xinjiang from January 2015 to August 2023 were collected through the"Infectious Disease Monitoring System", a subsystem of the "Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System". The epidemic characteristics of reported incidence in this area from 2015 to 2022 were analyzed. Two SARIMA models of monthly reported incidence number and rate were established. The prediction performance of the two models was evaluated using the reported incidence data of tuberculosis from January 2023 to August 2023. The χ2 test was used to analyze population characteristics, and the Cochran-Armitage trend test was used to analyze annual incidence. Results:From 2015 to 2022, 133 972 cases of pulmonary tuberculosis were reported in Kashgar, with a yearly reported incidence rate of 383.64/100 000, showing a rising trend ( TCA=77.03, P<0.001) and then a declining trend ( TCA=176.16, P<0.001). The proportion of pathogenic positive pulmonary tuberculosis had increased yearly ( TCA=132.66, P<0.001). The reported onset time was concentrated from January to June each year, with a peak in April. Yengisar County, Zepu County and Yopurga County had the highest reported incidence rate in Kashgar. The sex ratio of men to women was 1.03∶1, and the reported incidence rate of men was higher than that of women ( χ2=27.04, P<0.001). The reported incidence rate of the group aged 60 years and older was the highest. The patient′s occupation was mainly farmers (84.99%). The average relative errors of the SARIMA ( 1, 1, 2) ( 0, 1, 1) 12 model and SARIMA ( 0, 1, 1)( 0, 1, 1) 12 model in predicting the reported monthly incidence number and rate were 11.67% and -9.81%, respectively. Both models had good prediction accuracy (MAPE=33.55%, MAPE=38.22%). Conclusion:The average reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in the Kashgar area shows a rising trend first and then a declining trend. The patients are mainly men and farmers, and attention should be paid to the prevention and control of tuberculosis among the elderly in winter and spring. The SARIMA ( 1, 1, 2) ( 0, 1, 1) 12 model and SARIMA ( 0, 1, 1)( 0, 1, 1) 12 model can fit the trend of reported tuberculosis incidence in the Kashgar area well and have good predictive performance.
8.Cerebral oxygen metabolism and brain electrical activity of healthy full-term neonates in high-altitude areas:a multicenter clinical research protocol
Bi ZE ; Jin GAO ; Xiao-Fen ZHAO ; Yang-Fang LI ; Tie-Song ZHANG ; Xiao-Mei LIU ; Hui MAO ; Ming-Cai QIN ; Yi ZHANG ; Yong-Li YANG ; Chun-Ye HE ; Yan ZHAO ; Kun DU ; Lin LIU ; Wen-Hao ZHOU ; Chinese High Altitude Neonatal Medicine Alliance
Chinese Journal of Contemporary Pediatrics 2024;26(4):403-409
Further evidence is needed to explore the impact of high-altitude environments on the neurologic function of neonates.Non-invasive techniques such as cerebral near-infrared spectroscopy and amplitude-integrated electroencephalography can provide data on cerebral oxygenation and brain electrical activity.This study will conduct multiple cerebral near-infrared spectroscopy and amplitude-integrated electroencephalography monitoring sessions at various time points within the first 3 days postpartum for healthy full-term neonates at different altitudes.The obtained data on cerebral oxygenation and brain electrical activity will be compared between different altitudes,and corresponding reference ranges will be established.The study involves 6 participating centers in the Chinese High Altitude Neonatal Medicine Alliance,with altitude gradients divided into 4 categories:800 m,1 900 m,2 400 m,and 3 500 m,with an anticipated sample size of 170 neonates per altitude gradient.This multicenter prospective cohort study aims to provide evidence supporting the impact of high-altitude environments on early brain function and metabolism in neonates.[Chinese Journal of Contemporary Pediatrics,2024,26(4):403-409]
9.A multicenter study of neonatal stroke in Shenzhen,China
Li-Xiu SHI ; Jin-Xing FENG ; Yan-Fang WEI ; Xin-Ru LU ; Yu-Xi ZHANG ; Lin-Ying YANG ; Sheng-Nan HE ; Pei-Juan CHEN ; Jing HAN ; Cheng CHEN ; Hui-Ying TU ; Zhang-Bin YU ; Jin-Jie HUANG ; Shu-Juan ZENG ; Wan-Ling CHEN ; Ying LIU ; Yan-Ping GUO ; Jiao-Yu MAO ; Xiao-Dong LI ; Qian-Shen ZHANG ; Zhi-Li XIE ; Mei-Ying HUANG ; Kun-Shan YAN ; Er-Ya YING ; Jun CHEN ; Yan-Rong WANG ; Ya-Ping LIU ; Bo SONG ; Hua-Yan LIU ; Xiao-Dong XIAO ; Hong TANG ; Yu-Na WANG ; Yin-Sha CAI ; Qi LONG ; Han-Qiang XU ; Hui-Zhan WANG ; Qian SUN ; Fang HAN ; Rui-Biao ZHANG ; Chuan-Zhong YANG ; Lei DOU ; Hui-Ju SHI ; Rui WANG ; Ping JIANG ; Shenzhen Neonatal Data Network
Chinese Journal of Contemporary Pediatrics 2024;26(5):450-455
Objective To investigate the incidence rate,clinical characteristics,and prognosis of neonatal stroke in Shenzhen,China.Methods Led by Shenzhen Children's Hospital,the Shenzhen Neonatal Data Collaboration Network organized 21 institutions to collect 36 cases of neonatal stroke from January 2020 to December 2022.The incidence,clinical characteristics,treatment,and prognosis of neonatal stroke in Shenzhen were analyzed.Results The incidence rate of neonatal stroke in 21 hospitals from 2020 to 2022 was 1/15 137,1/6 060,and 1/7 704,respectively.Ischemic stroke accounted for 75%(27/36);boys accounted for 64%(23/36).Among the 36 neonates,31(86%)had disease onset within 3 days after birth,and 19(53%)had convulsion as the initial presentation.Cerebral MRI showed that 22 neonates(61%)had left cerebral infarction and 13(36%)had basal ganglia infarction.Magnetic resonance angiography was performed for 12 neonates,among whom 9(75%)had involvement of the middle cerebral artery.Electroencephalography was performed for 29 neonates,with sharp waves in 21 neonates(72%)and seizures in 10 neonates(34%).Symptomatic/supportive treatment varied across different hospitals.Neonatal Behavioral Neurological Assessment was performed for 12 neonates(33%,12/36),with a mean score of(32±4)points.The prognosis of 27 neonates was followed up to around 12 months of age,with 44%(12/27)of the neonates having a good prognosis.Conclusions Ischemic stroke is the main type of neonatal stroke,often with convulsions as the initial presentation,involvement of the middle cerebral artery,sharp waves on electroencephalography,and a relatively low neurodevelopment score.Symptomatic/supportive treatment is the main treatment method,and some neonates tend to have a poor prognosis.
10.Analysis of the epidemic characteristics of reported pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Kashgar Prefecture, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from 2015 to 2022 and establishment of SARIMA prediction
Chong TENG ; Fang XIE ; Bing ZHAO ; Lijie ZHANG ; Hui LI ; Yuanyuan SONG ; Yang ZHENG ; Yang ZHOU ; Jing WANG ; Fei HUANG ; Mingting CHEN ; Xichao OU
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2024;58(11):1665-1672
Objective:To analyze the epidemic characteristics of reported tuberculosis incidence in Kashgar from 2015 to 2022, and use the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to predict the incidence, providing references for the local control of pulmonary tuberculosis.Methods:The reported incidence data of tuberculosis in the Kashgar area of Xinjiang from January 2015 to August 2023 were collected through the"Infectious Disease Monitoring System", a subsystem of the "Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System". The epidemic characteristics of reported incidence in this area from 2015 to 2022 were analyzed. Two SARIMA models of monthly reported incidence number and rate were established. The prediction performance of the two models was evaluated using the reported incidence data of tuberculosis from January 2023 to August 2023. The χ2 test was used to analyze population characteristics, and the Cochran-Armitage trend test was used to analyze annual incidence. Results:From 2015 to 2022, 133 972 cases of pulmonary tuberculosis were reported in Kashgar, with a yearly reported incidence rate of 383.64/100 000, showing a rising trend ( TCA=77.03, P<0.001) and then a declining trend ( TCA=176.16, P<0.001). The proportion of pathogenic positive pulmonary tuberculosis had increased yearly ( TCA=132.66, P<0.001). The reported onset time was concentrated from January to June each year, with a peak in April. Yengisar County, Zepu County and Yopurga County had the highest reported incidence rate in Kashgar. The sex ratio of men to women was 1.03∶1, and the reported incidence rate of men was higher than that of women ( χ2=27.04, P<0.001). The reported incidence rate of the group aged 60 years and older was the highest. The patient′s occupation was mainly farmers (84.99%). The average relative errors of the SARIMA ( 1, 1, 2) ( 0, 1, 1) 12 model and SARIMA ( 0, 1, 1)( 0, 1, 1) 12 model in predicting the reported monthly incidence number and rate were 11.67% and -9.81%, respectively. Both models had good prediction accuracy (MAPE=33.55%, MAPE=38.22%). Conclusion:The average reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in the Kashgar area shows a rising trend first and then a declining trend. The patients are mainly men and farmers, and attention should be paid to the prevention and control of tuberculosis among the elderly in winter and spring. The SARIMA ( 1, 1, 2) ( 0, 1, 1) 12 model and SARIMA ( 0, 1, 1)( 0, 1, 1) 12 model can fit the trend of reported tuberculosis incidence in the Kashgar area well and have good predictive performance.

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