1.Effect of community comprehensive management model intervention among patients with dyslipidemia
GAO Hui ; XIE Liang ; YAO Chunyang ; WANG Linhong ; JIN Liu ; HU Jie
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2026;38(1):15-19
Objective:
To evaluate the effect of community comprehensive management model intervention among patients with dyslipidemia, so as to provide the reference for optimizing community management strategies and improving the target achievement rate for blood lipids among this population.
Methods:
From May to June 2023, a multi-stage stratified random sampling method was employed to select patients with dyslipidemia from primary healthcare institutions in Jiaxing City, Zhejiang Province. Eligible participants were randomly assigned to either a control group or an intervention group. The control group received routine management, while the intervention group was subjected to a community comprehensive management model in addition to the routine care. Both groups were followed up for 24 months. Data on demographic characteristics, lifestyle behaviors, physical examination indices, and blood biochemical indicators were collected at baseline and after the intervention through questionnaires, physical examinations, and laboratory tests. Changes in obesity rate, central obesity rate, target achievement rates for blood lipids, blood pressure, and blood glucose, as well as lifestyle modifications, were analyzed. Differences between the two groups before and after the intervention were assessed using generalized estimating equations (GEE).
Results:
The control group consisted of 560 patients, including 303 females (54.11%) and 430 individuals aged ≥65 years (76.79%). The intervention group also included 560 patients, with 300 females (53.57%) and 431 individuals aged ≥65 years (76.96%). Before the intervention, no statistically significant differences were observed between the two groups in terms of gender, age, educational level, history of chronic diseases, and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk stratification (all P>0.05). After 24 months of intervention, interaction effects between group and time were observed for obesity rate, central obesity rate, target achievement rate for blood lipids, target achievement rate for blood glucose, composite target achievement rate, physical activity rate, and medication adherence (all P<0.05). Specifically, the intervention group demonstrated lower rates of obesity and central obesity, and higher target achievement rate of blood lipids, target achievement rate of blood glucose, composite target achievement rate, physical activity rate, and medication adherence compared to the control group.
Conclusion
The community comprehensive management model contributed to improvements in multiple metabolic parameters (including body weight, waist circumference, blood lipids, and blood glucose) among patients with dyslipidemia, and was associated with increased physical activity rate and medication adherence.
2.Effects of subanesthetic dose of esketamine on postoperative anxiety and recovery in patients undergoing laparo-scopic cholecystectomy
Zhangzhen ZHONG ; Xian ZHENG ; Ting XU ; Jie WANG ; Hui CAO ; Xinggen ZHOU ; Hui LI ; Jiacheng ZHAO ; Hui LIU ; Chao ZHANG
China Pharmacy 2026;37(2):204-209
OBJECTIVE To investigate the effects of subanesthetic dose of esketamine on postoperative anxiety and recovery in patients undergoing laparoscopic cholecystectomy. METHODS A total of 200 patients scheduled for laparoscopic cholecystectomy at Suzhou Ninth Hospital Affiliated to Soochow University from January 2023 to December 2024 were randomly assigned to control group (n=100) and observation group (n=100). One minute before the initiation of anesthesia, patients in the control group received intravenous injections of Propofol emulsion injection, Sufentanil citrate injection, and Succinylcholine chloride injection. On this basis, patients in the observation group received an intravenous injection of Esketamine hydrochloride injection. The anxiety status of patients in both groups was compared, along with their general intraoperative conditions (including sufentanil dosage, duration of pneumoperitoneum, operative time, anesthesia time, and extubation time), postoperative recovery, incidence of adverse reactions, and the need for dezocine rescue analgesia. Heart rate and mean arterial pressure, entropy index (state entropy and response entropy), inflammatory marker levels [interleukin-6 (IL-6) and C-reactive protein (CRP)], numerical rating scale (NRS) for pain intensity were compared between the two groups at different time points. RESULTS No significant differences were found between the two groups in pneumoperitoneum duration, operative time, anesthesia time,extubation time, incidence of postoperative dry mouth, entropy index or length of stay in the post-anesthesia care unit (P>0.05). Compared with the control group, the observation group showed significantly lower postoperative STAI-S scores, reduced intraoperative sufentanil consumption, decreased incidence of postoperative nausea, vomiting, and shivering, the need for dezocine rescue analgesia, as well as lower plasma IL-6 and CRP levels at 24 h after surgery, and NRS (P<0.05). The heart rate and mean arterial pressure of patients in the observation group at the start of surgery, end of surgery, and during extubation were all significantly higher than those in the control group (P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS Subanesthetic dose of esketamine can effectively alleviate postoperative anxiety, reduce intraoperative opioid consumption, suppress postoperative inflammatory response, relieve postoperative pain, and promote recovery in patients undergoing laparoscopic cholecystectomy.
3.Research Progress on the Role of Programmed Cell Death in Flap Ischemia-Reperfusion Injury
Jiwei ZHANG ; Jie ZHANG ; Xinshan WANG ; Xingzhang YAO ; Zhenxing JIANG ; Zhijun HE ; Tao LIU ; Jianliang LI ; Hui YAO ; Jie AN ; Qiuyue ZHAO ; Xiaotao WEI ; M Rayan GHAZI
Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital 2026;17(3):851-861
Flap transplantation is a critical surgical strategy for the reconstruction of tissue defects caused by trauma, tumor resection, and congenital malformations, and its survival rate directly determines surgical efficacy and patient prognosis. Following transplantation, flaps inevitably undergo ischemia-reperfusion (I/R) injury, during which oxidative stress, inflammatory responses, and metabolic disturbances are intricately intertwined, ultimately leading to cellular injury and tissue necrosis. Recent studies have demonstrated that multiple forms of programmed cell death—including apoptosis, pyroptosis, ferroptosis, necroptosis, and PANoptosis—play central roles in flap I/R injury. The extensive crosstalk and molecular interactions among these pathways form a highly complex cell death network. Specifically, apoptosis is mediated by the imbalance of Bcl-2 family proteins and the activation of cysteine-dependent aspartate-specific protease (caspase) cascades; pyroptosis is driven by the NLRP3-caspase-1-GSDMD axis, resulting in membrane pore formation and the release of pro-inflammatory cytokines; ferroptosis is characterized by iron-dependent lipid peroxidation and dysfunction of glutathione peroxidase 4 (GPX4); necroptosis is triggered by the receptor-interacting serine/threonine-protein kinase 1 (RIPK1)-RIPK3-MLKL signaling complex, leading to membrane rupture; and PANoptosis represents an integrated form of inflammatory cell death that coordinates multiple death pathways. Importantly, these forms of programmed cell death are not independent but are interconnected through extensive signaling crosstalk. Key regulatory molecules, including caspase-8, reactive oxygen species (ROS), nuclear factor-κB (NF-κB), and nuclear factor erythroid 2-related factor 2 (Nrf2), collectively modulate the dynamic balance among these pathways. Therefore, the multidimensional interplay and spatiotemporal dynamics of programmed cell death constitute a fundamental pathological basis of flap I/R injury. This review systematically summarizes the latest advances in the mechanisms and interactions of various programmed cell death pathways in flap I/R injury, aiming to elucidate the underlying regulatory network. These insights may provide novel theoretical foundations for optimizing flap protection strategies, improving flap survival, and promoting tissue repair.
4.Epidemiological characteristics and immune effects of pertussis in Jiangxi Province, 2020-2023
Hui WU ; Shicheng GUO ; Jie LIU ; Yuqin ZHAO ; Jing WU ; Keming LIU
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2025;46(6):973-978
Objective:To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and immune effects of pertussis in Jiangxi Province from 2020 to 2023 and provide a reference basis for preventing and controlling pertussis in Jiangxi Province.Methods:The annual pertussis incidence data and population data of Jiangxi Province in the same period were derived from the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System, the population data for 2020 were derived from the seventh population census data of Jiangxi Province, and pertussis cases with PV immunization history were derived from the immunization program information system of Jiangxi Province. Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze pertussis epidemic characteristics and PV immunization history in Jiangxi Province from 2020 to 2023. An expert modeler was used to construct the best time series model and perform seasonal decomposition. The chi-square test and Cochran-Armitage trend test were used for statistical analysis. Excel 2013 and SPSS 27.0 software were used for statistical analysis.Results:A total of 886 cases of pertussis were reported in Jiangxi Province from 2020 to 2023, with an average annual reported incidence rate of 0.49/100 000, showing a linear upward trend ( Z=121.80, P<0.001). The Winters' additive model was optimal to fit the monthly data with stable seasonality (Ljung-Box statistic Q=10.56, P=0.78), the average number of reported cases in August was higher than the annual average of 5.12. The top three cities with reported incidence rates were Pingxiang (1.11/100 000), Yichun (1.10/100 000), and Nanchang (0.73/100 000). The highest age composition of cases was in the under 1-year-old group (373 cases,42.10%). Under 1-year-old group, 5-9-years-old group, and ≥10-years-old group all showed an increasing trend in reported incidence year by year (all P<0.001), and the reported incidence rate of under 1-year-old group increased from 12.42/100 000 in 2020 to 48.85/100 000 in 2023. A total of 545 cases (61.51%) had a history of PV immunization. Four doses PV immunization was the main ones (44.92%, 398 cases) and the median ( Q1, Q3) interval from the last vaccination to onset was 4 (1,5) years. Conclusions:The reported incidence of pertussis in Jiangxi Province increased from 2020 to 2023. The cases are mainly concentrated in the under 1-year-old group. The rates of PV vaccination in pertussis cases was low, with more number of vaccine breakthrough infection cases with 4-doses PV vaccination. It has been suggested to continue doing the following: strengthening pertussis surveillance, improving the timeliness of pertussis vaccination, implementing the fifth dose as soon as possible for children over 6-year-old, strengthening the studies of vaccine breakthrough infection case, and optimizing the population immunity strategy of pertussis.
5.Analysis of risk factors for postoperative coronal imbalance in patients with type A degenerative scoliosis
Changsheng FAN ; Jie LI ; Yanjie XU ; Hui XU ; Bangheng LIANG ; Zezhang ZHU ; Yong QIU ; Zhen LIU
Chinese Journal of Orthopaedics 2025;45(18):1184-1192
Objective:To investigate the risk factors for postoperative coronal imbalance in patients with type A degenerative scoliosis and to refine the Qiu classification by reclassifying type A patients.Methods:A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of patients with type A degenerative scoliosis classified by the Qiu classification who underwent corrective surgery at our hospital from January 2017 to April 2022. A total of 69 patients were enrolled in the study, including 3 males and 66 females, with an age of 60.6±6.8 years (range: 47-71 years). Based on the preoperative CBD, type A patients were further divided into three subtypes: Aa with CBD≤1 cm, Ab with CBD>1 cm with C 7 plumb line deviation toward the concave side, and Ac with CBD>1 cm with C 7 plumb line deviation toward the convex side. The incidence of coronal imbalance was compared among subtypes. During follow-up, patients with CBD ≤3 cm were classified as balanced, and those with CBD>3 cm as imbalanced. Radiographic parameters including coronal Cobb's angle (CA), CBD, L 4 tilt angle, L 5 tilt angle, thoracic kyphosis (TK), lumbar lordosis (LL), pelvic incidence (PI), pelvic tilt (PT), sacral slope (SS), and sagittal vertical axis (SVA) were measured in the standing radiographs preoperatively, 2-weeks postoperatively and 2-years follow-up. Differences in radiographic parameters between balanced and imbalanced groups were compared, and binary logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for postoperative coronal imbalance. Results:In the imbalanced Group (22 patients), there were 6 patients of type Aa (27%), 5 patients of type Ab (23%), and 11 patients of type Ac (50%), and in the balanced Group (47 patients), there were 20 patients of type Aa (43%), 18 patients of type Ab (38%), and 9 patients of type Ae (19%). The difference in subtype distribution between the two groups was significant (χ 2=6.939, P=0.029). The CBD in the imbalanced group was significantly larger than in the balanced group at the 2-years follow-up (4.18±0.86 cm vs. 1.31±0.78 cm, t=-13.813, P<0.001). The preoperative L 4 tilt angle was significantly larger in the imbalanced group compared to the balanced group (23.59°±6.86° vs. 17.64°±8.34°, t=-2.914, P=0.005). And the postoperative and 2-years follow-up L 4 tilt angles were also significantly larger than the balanced group (18.6°±5.5° vs. 11.5°±5.7°, t=-4.904, P<0.001; 18.0°±5.6° vs. 11.1°±5.7°, t=-4.691, P<0.001). Regression analysis identified the Ac type [ OR=3.937, 95% CI(1.07, 14.55), P=0.040] and excessive postoperative L 4 tilt angle [ OR=1.288, 95% CI(1.09, 1.52), P=0.003] as risk factors for postoperative coronal imbalance in type A patients. Conclusions:In the A-type of Qiu classification, patients with preoperative CBD>1 cm and trunk tilting towards the convex side (Ac type), as well as those with a large L 4 tilt angle after surgery, are more likely to experience coronal plane imbalance after surgery.
6.Postoperative restoration to the ideal Roussouly classification in predicting proximal junctional kyphosis after the treatment of adult degenerative scoliosis
Changsheng FAN ; Jie LI ; Chen LING ; Hui XU ; Bangheng LIANG ; Yanjie XU ; Yong QIU ; Zezhang ZHU ; Zhen LIU
Chinese Journal of Orthopaedics 2025;45(12):777-787
Objective:To investigate the difference of Roussouly ideal classification in predicting postoperative proximal junctional kyphosis (PJK) between adult degenerative spinal deformity patients with and without pelvic fixation and the potential reasons.Methods:From January 2017 to January 2020, a total of 95 patients (4 males, 91 females; with an average age of 62.03±6.30 years) with degenerative spinal deformities were retrospectively analyzed. There were 35 patients in the non-pelvic group (1 male, 34 females) and 60 patients in the pelvic group (3 males, 57 females). The radiographic parameters included coronal Cobb's angle (CA), pelvic incidence (PI), pelvic tilt (PT), sacral slope (SS), thoracic kyphosis (TK), lumbar lordosis (LL), sagittal vertical axis (SVA), T1 pelvic angle (TPA), and proximal junctional angle (PJA) were measured in the standing radiographs preoperatively, postoperatively at 2 weeks, and 2-year follow-up. Changes in PT and SS were calculated for patients at 2 weeks and the 2-year follow-up. Based on the revised Roussouly classification, 95 patients were classified into different types preoperatively, postoperatively at 2 weeks, and during the 2-year follow-up. Changes in the classification of patients were documented postoperatively at 2 weeks. Roussouly types were determined using preoperative pelvic parameters, and a match was defined when the 2-week postoperative classification aligned with the ideal type. The occurrence of PJK and the relationship with classification matching were recorded in the group. Independent t-tests were used for intergroup comparisons of radiographic parameters, and chi-square tests were employed to assess classification changes and predictive accuracy of the Roussouly classification. Results:Preoperative PT, TPA and SVA in non-pelvic group were significantly smaller than those in pelvic group, and preoperative SS and LL larger than those in pelvic group ( P<0.05). The changes of PT and SS in non-pelvic group were significantly lower than those in pelvic group 2 weeks after surgery ( P<0.05). The proportion of classification changes in the pelvic group was significantly higher than that in the non-pelvic group (60% vs. 34%, χ 2=5.847, P=0.016). Among the 95 patients, a total of 29 experienced PJK during the follow-up, with 3 cases progressing to PJF. The incidence of PJK in mismatched patients was 37% with no significant difference compared with matched patients (19%) (χ 2=3.357, P=0.067). In the sacral spine group of 60 patients, 22 experienced PJK, with 3 cases progressing to PJF. Among them, 19 patients with PJK had a classification mismatch with the ideal classification at 2 weeks postoperatively. The PJK incidence was significantly higher in mismatched patients (45%) compared to matched patients (17%) (χ 2=4.429, P=0.035). In the non-pelvic group, 7 patients developed PJK, with 3 mismatched cases. The PJK incidence in mismatched vs. matched patients was 18% vs. 22%, showing no significant difference (χ 2=0.114, P=0.735). Conclusions:For the patients with degenerative spinal deformity, pelvic fixation leads to a more complete restoration of the ideal Roussouly classification. Restoration of the Roussouly type in patients with pelvic fixation is a reliable predictor of postoperative PJK. However, in patients without pelvic fixation, the alignment with the ideal Roussouly classification does not significantly correlate with PJK development.
7.Postoperative outcome analysis of corrective surgery for "Ω"-type severe scoliosis
Changwei LIU ; Jie LI ; Hui XU ; Zongshan HU ; Yanjie XU ; Zhen LIU ; Yong QIU ; Zezhang ZHU
Chinese Journal of Orthopaedics 2025;45(15):967-976
Objective:To evaluate the clinical outcomes of corrective surgery in patients with different subtypes of "Ω"-type severe scoliosis.Methods:A retrospective analysis was conducted on 79 patients with "Ω"-type severe scoliosis treated at Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital from August 2010 to July 2020. The cohort included 37 males and 42 females, with a mean age of 21.4±7.4 years (range, 8-52 years). The mean duration of preoperative halo traction was 72.6±27.5 days (range, 14-150 days). Etiologies included congenital scoliosis (33 cases), idiopathic scoliosis (27 cases), Marfan syndrome (9 cases), neurofibromatosis (8 cases), and neuromuscular disorders (2 cases). Based on the classification by Karikari et al., 58 patients were classified as type 2P, 13 as type 2D, and 8 as type 2PD. Outcome measures included coronal and kyphotic Cobb angles, the Scoliosis Research Society-22 (SRS-22) questionnaire, Oswestry disability index (ODI), and visual analog scale (VAS).Results:All surgical procedures were successfully completed, and all patients were followed up for an average of 27.5±3.9 months (range, 24 to 40 months). The duration of Halo gravity traction was 72.6±27.5 days (range, 14-150 days). In the 2D group, the changes after traction were 26.0°±12.5° for the coronal Cobb angle and 10.1°±7.9° for the kyphotic Cobb angle. In the 2PD group, the traction effect was 13.4°±5.7° for the coronal and 8.3°±5.9° for the kyphotic Cobb angle. In the 2P group, the preoperative coronal Cobb angle was 128.9°±29.1°, postoperative was 84.5°±24.5°, and at the last follow-up was 87.7°±25.0°, yielding a correction rate of 34%±12%. The kyphotic Cobb angle in this group changed from 112.9°±27.1° preoperatively to 77.6°±22.9° postoperatively, and 80.2°±22.8° at the final follow-up, corresponding to a correction rate of 30%±16%. In the 2D group, the coronal Cobb angle was 113.1°±19.9° preoperatively, 71.2°±16.3° postoperatively, and 73.8°±16.3° at the final follow-up, with a correction rate of 37%±11%. The kyphotic Cobb angle in this group was 87.2°±14.0° preoperatively, 61.6°±18.5° postoperatively, and 65.1°±18.5° at the final follow-up, with a correction rate of 31%±22%. In the 2PD group, the coronal Cobb angle improved from 119.6°±29.0° preoperatively to 78.3°±20.8° postoperatively, and 87.0°±23.0° at the last follow-up, corresponding to a correction rate of 35%±8%. The kyphotic Cobb angle in this group was 124.6°±16.8° preoperatively, 82.1°±19.9° postoperatively, and 90.9°±16.9° at the final follow-up, with a correction rate of 33%±16%. At the last follow-up, SRS-22 scores across all four domains had improved in all three groups compared to preoperative values. In the 2PD group, however, the differences in the pain and self-image domains before and after surgery were not statistically significant ( P>0.05), while improvements in the other domains were significant ( P<0.05). No statistically significant differences were observed among the three groups either preoperatively or at the final follow-up ( P>0.05). Conclusion:Combined Halo-gravity traction and spinal corrective surgery are effective in improving both radiographic and functional outcomes in patients with "Ω"-type severe scoliosis. Nonetheless, patients in the 2PD subtype demonstrate reduced traction responsiveness and relatively limited postoperative recovery compared to the 2P and 2D subtypes.
8.Pathogenomic surveillance of Bordetella pertussis clinical isolates in Liaocheng City, Shandong Province in 2024
Jinli JIA ; Jie CHE ; Lili ZHENG ; Jinzhong ZHANG ; Hong LIU ; Rui YANG ; Guoqing LI ; Xiaoshuang LU ; Hui YUAN
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;59(11):1848-1854
Objective:To analyze the molecular characteristics of prevalent Bordetella pertussis (Bp) isolates in Liaocheng City, Shandong Province in 2024. Methods:From March to August 2024, oropharyngeal swabs were collected from suspected pertussis cases at Liaocheng People′s Hospital in Shandong Province for Bp isolation. A total of 99 Bp isolates were obtained. Whole-genome sequencing was performed on all isolates, followed by Multilocus Sequence Typing (MLST), vaccine antigen-related gene typing (including ptxP, ptxA, ptxB, ptxC, ptxD, ptxE, fhaB, fim2, fim3, and prn), 23S rRNA gene typing, and phylogenetic analysis. To capture the differences between Bp isolates and vaccine strains in Liaocheng City, the international vaccine strain Tohama I and the Chinese vaccine strain CS were included in the analysis. Antimicrobial resistance testing against 11 agents was performed on 52 isolates. Results:The throat swabs of 99 Bp isolates were collected from patients aged 44 days to 42 years, and the median age of the patients was 7 (5, 8) years. All isolates ptxP were ptxP3 type. 74 isolates (74.75%) carried the prn150, while 21 isolates (21.21%) were prn-deficient. The predominant antigenic profile was ptxP3/ ptxA1/ ptxB1/ ptxC4/ ptxD1/ ptxE4/ fhaB1/ fim2-1/ fim3-1/ prn150, found in 72 isolates (72.73%). All 99 isolates carried the A2047G mutation in the 23S rRNA gene. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing showed that the MICs of macrolides and clindamycin for all 52 Bp isolates were all >256 mg/L. However, the isolates showed low MIC for seven other antimicrobials tested, including trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, amoxicillin, and levofloxacin. MLST typing revealed that 94 isolates (94.95%) were identified as ST-2, while 5 isolates (5.05%) belonged to a novel sequence type (ST-118). Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that all 99 Bp isolates were highly homologous but clustered in evolutionary branches distinct from vaccine strains. Conclusion:In 2024, Bordetella pertussis isolates in Liaocheng City exhibit distinct clonal epidemic characteristics, with the predominant antigenic genotype being ptxP3/ ptxA1/ ptxB1/ ptxC4/ ptxD1/ ptxE4/ fhaB1/ fim2-1/ fim3-1/ prn150. All isolates are resistant to macrolide antibiotics.
9.Chemical constituents from the sticks and leaves of Croton cascarilloides and their biological activities
Yu-jie LÜ ; Hui-qin CHEN ; Hao WANG ; Jing-zhe YUAN ; Wen-li MEI ; Shou-bai LIU ; Hao-fu DAI
Chinese Traditional Patent Medicine 2025;47(7):2249-2254
AIM To study the chemical constituents from the sticks and leaves of Croton cascarilloides Raeusch.and their biological activities.METHODS The 95%ethanol extract from the sticks and leaves of C.cascarilloides was isolated and purified by MCI,silica gel,Sephadex LH-20 and semi-preparative HPLC,then the structures of obtained compounds were identified by physicochemical properties and spectral data.LPS-induced NO RAW264.7 cell model induced by LPS was used to evaluate its anti-inflammatory activity in vitro.GES-1 injury model induced by taurocholic acid was used to screen the gastric mucosal protection activity.RESULTS Fourteen compounds were isolated and identified as bullatantriol(1),(-)-boscialin(2),(+)-dehydrovomifoliol(3),3-(hydroxylacetyl)-indole(4),pinoresinol(5),3,7-dimethyl-octa-1,7-diene-3,6-ol(6),(+)-syringaresinol(7),curcasinlignan B(8),cleomiscosin C(9),cleomiscosinD(10),2,6-dimethyl-octa-1,7-dien-3,6-diol(11),vanillin(12),vanillic acid(13),methyl vanillate(14).Compound 4 had certain anti-inflammatory activity,with IC50 values of 73.62 μmol/L.The protective rates of 25 μmol/L compounds 1-4,6,9-12 and 14 on gastric mucosal epithelial cells were 30.07%,34.18%,23.91%,30.92%,17.51%,19.69%,31.76%,22.46%,30.56%and 14.49%,respectively.CONCLUSION Compounds 1-14 are isolated from this plant for the first time.Compound 4 shows anti-inflammatory activity,1-4,6,9-12 and 14 show different degrees of gastric mucosal epithelial cell protective activity.
10.Monitoring and model prediction of human brucellosis in Tangshan City, Hebei Province from 2016 to 2024
Xiangbo LIU ; Wen GAO ; Renjie E ; Ling ZHANG ; Guangyue XIE ; Jie PEI ; Hui WANG ; Zheng LIU ; Hongli LIU
Chinese Journal of Infectious Diseases 2025;43(4):232-238
Objective:To analyze the epidemic characteristics of human brucellosis in Tangshan City, Hebei Province from 2016 to 2024, and to establish a prediction model for forecasting incidence of human brucellosis in Tangshan City from 2025 to 2028, so that to provide evidence for prevention and control strategies.Methods:The incidence data of human brucellosis in Tangshan City from 2016 to 2024 were collected. Brucella strains isolated from blood cultures of patients with acute brucellosis were identified.The onset time and demographic distributions of brucellosis were analyzed using descriptive epidemiological methods. Chi-square test was used for statistical analysis. Python software was used to establish a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA model) and predict the incidence of brucellosis in Tangshan City from 2025 to 2028. Results:From 2016 to 2024, a total of 2 446 cases of human brucellosis in Tangshan City were reported, with the highest incidence in 2016 (378 cases) and the lowest in 2022 (277 cases).Seasonal variation was observed, with 54.87%(1 342/2 446) occurring in spring and summer (March to July). The incidence rate of male was 5.28/100 000, which was significantly higher than that of female (1.94/100 000) ( χ2=554.96, P<0.001). The cases spanned all age groups, with the highest incidence among those aged 50 to 59 (30.25%(740/2 446)). Farmers engaged in cattle/sheep breeding accounting for 85.73% (2 097/2 446) of cases. A total of 236 blood samples were collected from patients with acute brucellosis, and 12 Brucella strains were isolated and identified as sheep type Ⅲ Brucella. The optimal model constructed was SARIMA (1, 0, 0) (1, 0, 1) 12, which was used to predict the incidence of human brucellosis in Tangshan City from 2025 to 2028. The results showed that the overall incidence was relatively stable, retaining the characteristic single annual peak. Conclusions:Human brucellosis in Tangshan City peaks in spring/summer and predominantly affects cattle/sheep farmers. The SARIMA (1, 0, 0) (1, 0, 1) 12 model effectively fits the epidemiological data of human brucellosis in Tangshan City well and enables reliable future trend predictions, supporting scientific and effective prevention and control work.


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