1.Evaluation of public health governance capacity in Zhejiang Province
Haiyan LI ; Ting CHEN ; Chengyue LI ; Huihui HUANGFU ; Wei WANG ; Qunhong SHEN ; Chaoyang ZHANG ; Zheng CHEN ; Chuan PU ; Lingzhong XU ; Anning MA ; Zhaohui GONG ; Tianqiang XU ; Panshi WANG ; Hua WANG ; Chao HAO ; Zhi HU ; Peiwu SHI ; Mo HAO
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2026;38(2):153-158
ObjectiveTo systematically assess the public health governance capacity in Zhejiang Province, to conduct an in-depth analysis of its strengths and weaknesses, so as to provide scientific basis and strategic recommendations for further enhancement. MethodsA systematic collection of policy documents, public information reports, and research literature related to public health governance capacity in Zhejiang Province from 2002 to 2023 was conducted (encompassing a total of 1 263 policy documents, 138 pieces of information reports and 631 research articles). Based on the evaluation criteria suitable for public health systems previously developed by the research team, the basic status and magnitude of change in public health governance capacity in Zhejiang Province was evaluated. Additionally, normative gap analyses were employed to identify the strengths and weaknesses. ResultsZhejiang Province ranked 4th nationwide in terms of public health governance capacity with a score of 733.4 points (1 000.0-point maximum). The province has effectively implemented the principle of health first (scoring 698.5 points in the assessment of health-first strategy implementation) and attached sufficient importance to health-related goals (scoring 658.2 points in the scientific rationality of goal setting). However, the implementation of inter-departmental coordination and incentive mechanisms only scored 178.7 points, the feasibility of management and monitoring mechanisms scored even lower at only 144.0 points, and the coverage of incentive mechanisms scored 286.0 points. ConclusionZhejiang Province has effectively implemented its health first strategy and attached great importance to health targets, but still needs to strengthen cross-departmental coordination mechanisms and health-oriented incentives.
2.Mechanism of Yishen Jiangtang Decoction in regulating endoplasmic reticulum stress-mediated NLRP3 inflammasome to improve renal damage in diabetic nephropathy db/db mice.
Yun-Jie YANG ; Bin-Hua YE ; Chen QIU ; Han-Qing WU ; Bo-Wei HUANG ; Tong WANG ; Shi-Wei RUAN ; Fang GUO ; Jian-Ting WANG ; Ming-Qian JIANG
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(10):2740-2749
This study aims to explore the mechanism through which Yishen Jiangtang Decoction(YSJTD) regulates endoplasmic reticulum stress(ERS)-mediated NOD-like receptor thermal protein domain associated protein 3(NLRP3) inflammasome to improve diabetic nephropathy(DN) in db/db mice. Thirty db/db mice were randomly divided into the model group, YSJTD group, ERS inhibitor 4-phenylbutyric acid(4-PBA) group, with 10 mice in each group. Additionally, 10 db/m mice were selected as the control group. The YSJTD group was orally administered YSJTD at a dose of 0.01 mL·g~(-1), the 4-PBA group was orally administered 4-PBA at a dose of 0.5 mg·g~(-1), and the control and model groups were given an equal volume of carboxylmethyl cellulose sodium. The treatments were administered once daily for 8 weeks. Food intake, water consumption, and body weight were recorded every 2 weeks. After the intervention, fasting blood glucose(FBG), glycosylated hemoglobin(HbA1c), urine microalbumin(U-mALB), 24-hour urine volume, serum creatinine(Scr), and blood urea nitrogen(BUN) were measured. Inflammatory markers interleukin-1β(IL-1β) and interleukin-18(IL-18) were detected using the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay(ELISA). Renal pathology was assessed through hematoxylin-eosin(HE), periodic acid-Schiff(PAS), and Masson staining, and transmission electron microscopy(TEM). Western blot was used to detect the expression levels of glucose-regulated protein 78(GRP78), C/EBP homologous protein(CHOP), NLRP3, apoptosis-associated speck-like protein containing CARD(ASC), cysteinyl aspartate-specific proteinase(caspase-1), and gasdermin D(GSDMD) in kidney tissues. The results showed that compared to the control group, the model group exhibited poor general condition, increased weight and food and water intake, and significantly higher levels of FBG, HbA1c, U-mALB, kidney index, 24-hour urine volume, IL-1β, and IL-18. Compared to the model group, the YSJTD and 4-PBA groups showed improved general condition, increased body weight, decreased food intake, and lower levels of FBG, U-mALB, kidney index, 24-hour urine volume, and IL-1β. Specifically, the YSJTD group showed a significant reduction in IL-18 levels compared to the model group, while the 4-PBA group exhibited decreased water intake and HbA1c levels compared to the model group. Although there was a decreasing trend in water intake and HbA1c in the YSJTD group, the differences were not statistically significant. No significant differences were observed in BUN, Scr, and kidney weight among the groups. Renal pathology revealed that the model group exhibited more severe renal damage compared to the control group. Kidney sections from the model group showed diffuse mesangial proliferation in the glomeruli, tubular edema, tubular dilation, significant inflammatory cell infiltration in the interstitium, and increased glycogen staining and blue collagen deposition in the basement membrane. In contrast, the YSJTD and 4-PBA groups showed varying degrees of improvement in renal damage, glycogen staining, and collagen deposition, with the YSJTD group showing more significant improvements. TEM analysis indicated that the model group had extensive cytoplasmic edema, homogeneous thickening of the basement membrane, fewer foot processes, and widening of fused foot processes. In the YSJTD and 4-PBA groups, cytoplasmic swelling of renal tissues was reduced, the basement membrane remained intact and uniform, and foot process fusion improved.Western blot results indicated that compared to the control group, the model group showed upregulation of GRP78, CHOP, GSDMD, NLRP3, ASC, and caspase-1 expression. In contrast, both the YSJTD and 4-PBA groups showed downregulation of these markers compared to the model group. These findings suggest that YSJTD exerts a protective effect against DN by alleviating NLRP3 inflammasome activation through the inhibition of ERS, thereby improving the inflammatory response in db/db DN mice.
Animals
;
Endoplasmic Reticulum Stress/drug effects*
;
Diabetic Nephropathies/metabolism*
;
NLR Family, Pyrin Domain-Containing 3 Protein/genetics*
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/administration & dosage*
;
Mice
;
Inflammasomes/drug effects*
;
Male
;
Kidney/pathology*
;
Endoplasmic Reticulum Chaperone BiP
;
Humans
;
Interleukin-18/genetics*
;
Mice, Inbred C57BL
3.Early clinical observation of the efficacy of a three-stage traditional Chinese medicine external treatment plan for talus Bone bruises caused by acute ankle sprain.
Mei-Qi YU ; Lei ZHANG ; Tian-Xin CHEN ; Ting-Ting DONG ; Yan LI ; Jun-Ying WU ; Bo JIANG ; Sheng ZHANG ; Xiao-Hua LIU ; Jin SUN ; Qing-Lin WANG
China Journal of Orthopaedics and Traumatology 2025;38(8):835-841
OBJECTIVE:
To explore the early clinical efficacy of a three-stage external treatment with traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) in the treatment of talar bone contusion caused by acute ankle sprain.
METHODS:
A retrospective analysis was performed on 360 patients with primary lateral ankle sprain admitted from September 2021 to July 2024. Patients with talar bone contusion were selected based on MRI examination, and 73 cases were finally included. According to different treatment methods, they were divided into the observation group and the control group. The observation group consisted of 35 cases, including 16 males and 19 females, aged 24 to 37 years old with an average of (30.34±2.68) years old, and received the three-stage external TCM treatment combined with the "POLICE" protocol. The control group included 38 cases, including 18 males and 20 females, aged 24 to 35 years old with an average of (29.87±2.57) years old, and was treated with the "POLICE" protocol alone. The volume of bone marrow edema (BME) area shown by MRI before treatment and 6 weeks after treatment was measured using 3D Slicer software, and the BME improvement rate was calculated. The "Figure of 8" measurement method was used to assess ankle swelling before treatment and at 1 and 3 weeks after treatment. The visual analogue scale (VAS) was used to evaluate ankle pain before treatment and at 1 and 6 weeks after treatment. At 6 weeks after treatment, the American Orthopaedic Foot and Ankle Society (AOFAS) ankle-hindfoot score and Karlsson ankle function score system were used to evaluate the improvement of ankle function.
RESULTS:
A total of 73 patients with talar bone contusion caused by ankle sprain completed the 6-week follow-up. At 6 weeks after treatment, the BME improvement rate in the observation group was (39.18±0.06)%, which was higher than (26.75±0.03)% in the control group, with a statistically significant difference (P<0.05). After 1 week of treatment, the VAS score in the observation group was (2.89±0.72) points, lower than (3.37±0.79) points in the control group, and the difference was statistically significant (P<0.05). The ankle swelling degree in the observation group was (50.20±3.19) cm, lower than (52.00±3.60) cm in the control group, with a statistically significant difference (P<0.05). After 3 weeks of treatment, there was no statistically significant difference in ankle swelling between the two groups. At 6 weeks after treatment, there was no statistically significant difference in VAS scores between the two groups. At 6 weeks after treatment, the AOFAS ankle-hindfoot score and Karlsson score in the observation group were (87.43±4.18) and (82.77±5.93) points, respectively, which were higher than (82.92±4.87) and (76.45±6.85) points in the control group, with statistically significant differences (P<0.05). According to the AOFAS ankle-hindfoot score, 8 cases were excellent and 27 cases were good in the observation group;2 cases were excellent, 33 cases were good, and 3 cases were fair in the control group. The difference between the two groups was statistically significant (χ2=7.089, P=0.029).
CONCLUSION
The three-stage external TCM treatment combined with the "POLICE" protocol has a significant early clinical efficacy. It can significantly reduce ankle pain and swelling in patients with bone contusion caused by acute lateral ankle sprain, promote the absorption of bone marrow edema, and accelerate the recovery of ankle function.
Ankle Injuries/drug therapy*
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Drugs, Chinese Herbal/administration & dosage*
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Talus/injuries*
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Retrospective Studies
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Administration, Cutaneous
;
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
;
Humans
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Male
;
Female
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Young Adult
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Adult
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Contusions/etiology*
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Visual Analog Scale
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Musculoskeletal Pain/etiology*
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Recovery of Function/drug effects*
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Treatment Outcome
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Follow-Up Studies
4.Maternal depressive symptoms and adolescent suicidal ideation: the chain mediating roles of childhood trauma and ineffectiveness.
Ying-Yan ZHONG ; Yu-Ting LI ; Jian-Hua CHEN ; Ru-Meng CHEN ; En-Zhao CONG ; Yi-Feng XU
Chinese Journal of Contemporary Pediatrics 2025;27(11):1317-1325
OBJECTIVES:
To investigate the association between maternal depressive symptoms and adolescent suicidal ideation, and to examine the chain mediating roles of childhood trauma and ineffectiveness.
METHODS:
A cross-sectional online survey was administered by school psychologists to 4 157 mother-adolescent pairs from middle schools in Shanghai and Henan, China. Measures included the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale, the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire, and the Children's Depression Inventory. Using Bootstrap method to examine the chain mediating effect of childhood trauma and ineffectiveness on the relationship between maternal depression symptoms and adolescent suicidal ideation.
RESULTS:
The prevalence of maternal depressive symptoms was 17.68% (735/4 157); among adolescents, the prevalence of depressive symptoms was 15.49% (644/4 157), and suicidal ideation was 28.19% (1 172/4 157). Adolescent depressive symptoms and suicidal ideation were positively correlated with maternal depressive symptoms, childhood trauma, and ineffectiveness (all P<0.01). Childhood trauma significantly mediated the association between maternal and adolescent depressive symptoms (95%CI: 0.046 9-0.077 2). The chain mediation of childhood trauma and ineffectiveness in the association between maternal depressive symptoms and adolescent suicidal ideation was also significant (95%CI: 0.000 7-0.001 3).
CONCLUSIONS
Higher maternal depressive symptom levels are associated with a greater likelihood of adolescents' exposure to childhood trauma, which increases adolescents' ineffectiveness and, in turn, is associated with suicidal ideation. This chain effect has important implications for social interventions targeting adolescent depression.
Humans
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Suicidal Ideation
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Adolescent
;
Female
;
Depression/etiology*
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Cross-Sectional Studies
;
Mothers/psychology*
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Male
;
Child
;
Adult
5.Clinical Features, Prognostic Analysis and Predictive Model Construction of Central Nervous System Invasion in Peripheral T-Cell Lymphoma.
Ya-Ting MA ; Yan-Fang CHEN ; Zhi-Yuan ZHOU ; Lei ZHANG ; Xin LI ; Xin-Hua WANG ; Xiao-Rui FU ; Zhen-Chang SUN ; Yu CHANG ; Fei-Fei NAN ; Ling LI ; Ming-Zhi ZHANG
Journal of Experimental Hematology 2025;33(3):760-768
OBJECTIVE:
To investigate the clinical features and prognosis of central nervous system (CNS) invasion in peripheral T-cell lymphoma (PTCL) and construct a risk prediction model for CNS invasion.
METHODS:
Clinical data of 395 patients with PTCL diagnosed and treated in the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from 1st January 2013 to 31st December 2022 were analyzed retrospectively.
RESULTS:
The median follow-up time of 395 PTCL patients was 24(1-143) months. There were 13 patients diagnosed CNS invasion, and the incidence was 3.3%. The risk of CNS invasion varied according to pathological subtype. The incidence of CNS invasion in patients with anaplastic large cell lymphoma (ALCL) was significantly higher than in patients with angioimmunoblastic T-cell lymphoma (AITL) (P <0.05). The median overall survival was significantly shorter in patients with CNS invasion than in those without CNS involvement, with a median survival time of 2.4(0.6-127) months after diagnosis of CNS invasion. The results of univariate and multivariate analysis showed that more than 1 extranodal involvement (HR=4.486, 95%CI : 1.166-17.264, P =0.029), ALCL subtype (HR=9.022, 95%CI : 2.289-35.557, P =0.002) and ECOG PS >1 (HR=15.890, 95%CI : 4.409-57.262, P <0.001) were independent risk factors for CNS invasion in PTCL patients. Each of these risk factors was assigned a value of 1 point and a new prediction model was constructed. It could stratify the patients into three distinct groups: low-risk group (0-1 point), intermediate-risk group (2 points) and high-risk group (3 points). The 1-year cumulative incidence of CNS invasion in the high-risk group was as high as 50.0%. Further evaluation of the model showed good discrimination and accuracy, and the consistency index was 0.913 (95%CI : 0.843-0.984).
CONCLUSION
The new model shows a precise risk assessment for CNS invasion prediction, while its specificity and sensitivity need further data validation.
Humans
;
Lymphoma, T-Cell, Peripheral/pathology*
;
Prognosis
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Central Nervous System Neoplasms/pathology*
;
Neoplasm Invasiveness
;
Male
;
Female
;
Central Nervous System/pathology*
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Middle Aged
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Adult
6.Construction and preliminary validation of machine learning predictive models for cervical cancer screening based on human DNA methylation
Yuan YANG ; Hang ZHOU ; Yakun WANG ; Yu DAI ; Ruoji PI ; Hua ZHANG ; Ziyue HUANG ; Ting WU ; Jinghong YANG ; Wen CHEN
Chinese Journal of Oncology 2025;47(2):193-200
Objective:Using methylation characteristics of human genes to construct machine learning predictive models for screening cervical cancer and precancerous lesions.Methods:Human DNA methylation detection was performed on 224 cervical exfoliated cell specimens from the Cancer Hospital of the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Tianjin Central Hospital of Gynecology Obstetrics, Xinmi Maternal and Child Health Hospital of Henan Province, West China Second Affiliated Hospital of Sichuan University, and Heping Hospital Affiliated to Changzhi Medical College collected during April 2014 and March 2015. The hypermethylated gene fragments related to cervical cancer were selected by high-density, high-association, and hypermethylated gene fragment screening and the LASSO regression algorithm. Taking cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 (CIN2) or more severe lesions as the research outcome, machine learning predictive models based on the random forest (RF), naive Bayes (NB), and support vector machine (SVM) algorithm, respectively, were constructed. A total of 144 outpatient specimens were used as the training set and 80 cervical exfoliated cell specimens from women participating in the cervical cancer screening program were used as the test set to verify the predictive models. Using histological diagnosis results as the gold standard, the detection efficacy for CIN2 or more severe lesions of the three machine learning predictive models were compared with that of the human papilloma virus (HPV) detection and cytological diagnosis.Results:In the training set of 144 cases, there were 34 cases of HPV positivity, with a positive rate of 23.61%. Cytologically, there were 37 cases diagnosed as no intraepithelial lesion or malignancy (NILM), and 107 cases diagnosed as atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASC-US) or above. Histologically, there were 28 cases without cervical intraepithelial neoplasia or benign cervical lesions, 31 cases of CIN1, 18 cases of CIN2, 31 cases of CIN3, and 36 cases of squamous cell carcinoma. Seven hypermethylated gene fragments were selected from 45 genes, and three machine learning prediction models based on the RF, NB, and SVM algorithm, respectively, were constructed. In the validation set of 80 cases, there were 28 cases of HPV positivity, with a positive rate of 35.00%. Cytologically, there were 65 cases diagnosed as NILM and 15 cases as ASC-US or above. Histologically, there were 39 cases without cervical intraepithelial neoplasia or benign cervical lesions, 10 cases of CIN1, 10 cases of CIN2, 11 cases of CIN3, and 10 cases of squamous cell carcinoma. In the validation set, the area under the curve (AUC) values of the RF model, NB model, SVM model, HPV detection, and cytological diagnosis of CIN2 or above were 0.90, 0.88, 0.82, 0.68, and 0.45, respectively. The DeLong test showed that there was no statistically significant difference in the AUC values between the RF, NB, and SVM models (all P>0.05), and the AUC values of the RF and NB models were higher than that of HPV detection (both P<0.01), and the AUC values of the RF, NB, and SVM models were higher than that of cytological diagnosis (all P<0.01). Compared with the NB model, the sensitivity of the RF model was similar (80.65% vs. 77.42%), but the specificity of the NB model was much higher than that of the RF model (93.88% vs. 73.47%). Conclusion:Among the machine learning prediction models for cervical cancer and precancerous lesions constructed based on human DNA methylation, the NB model has good predictive performance for CIN2 and above lesions, and may be used for screening of cervical cancer and precancerous lesions.
7.Significance of basophil levels in prognostic evaluation of intra-abdominal infection
Ming-min PANG ; Shao-hua FAN ; Mei-chen YAN ; Bao LIU ; Ju YANG ; Ya-nan LI ; Shi-han ZHANG ; Ting-yu MENG ; Tao GAO
Chinese Journal of Current Advances in General Surgery 2025;28(5):367-372
Objective:To assess the relationship between basophil levels and mortality in patients with intra-abdominal infection.Methods:Information on patients with intraperitoneal infection admitted to the intensive care unit were extracted from the MIMIC database.A time-dependent Cox regression model was used to adjust for confounders associated with 28-day mortality.Propensity score matching(PSM)was used to balance the baseline differences be-tween groups with different basophil levels,and a restricted cube chart(RCS)was used to show the relationship between basophil count and 28-day mortality in patients with intra-abdominal infection.Results:A total of 4403 patients with intra-abdominal infection were enrolled in the MIMIC database.Patients with high basophil levels have lower mortality than those with low basophil levels.There was an L-shaped curve between basophil level and 28-day mortality,with a cut-off value of 0.47×109/L.Cox regression analysis showed that basophil levels were an independent protective factor for mortal-ity in patients with intra-abdominal infection after adjusting for potential confounders(HR=0.586,95%CI:0.443-0.769).Protective factors for death at basophil levels remained after PSM adjusted for potential confounders(HR=0.628,95%CI:0.470-0.832).Conclusion:Basophil level is an independent protective factor for mortality in patients with intra-abdominal infection,and basophil levels should be dynamically monitored to better evaluate the prognosis of patients.
8.Exploration of pharmacodynamic substances and potential mechanisms of Huazhuo Sanjie Chubi Decoction in treatment of gouty arthritis based on UPLC-Q-Exactive Orbitrap-MS technology and network pharmacology.
Yan XIAO ; Ting ZHANG ; Ying-Jie ZHANG ; Bin HUANG ; Peng CHEN ; Xiao-Hua CHEN ; Ming-Qing HUANG ; Xue-Ting CHEN ; You-Xin SU ; Jie-Mei GUO
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(2):444-488
Based on ultra-high performance liquid chromatography-quadrupole-Exactive Orbitrap mass spectrometry(UPLC-Q-Exactive Orbitrap-MS) technology and network pharmacology, this study explored the pharmacodynamic substances and potential mechanisms of Huazhuo Sanjie Chubi Decoction in the treatment of gouty arthritis(GA). UPLC-Q-Exactive Orbitrap-MS technology was used to identify the components in Huazhuo Sanjie Chubi Decoction, and the qualitative analysis of its active ingredients was carried out, with a total of 184 active ingredients identified. A total of 897 active ingredient targets were screened through the PharmMapper database, and 491 GA-related disease targets were obtained from the OMIM, GeneCards, CTD databases. After Venn analysis, 60 intersecting targets were obtained. The component target-GA target network was constructed through the Cytoscape platform, and the STRING database was used to construct a protein-protein interaction network, with 16 core targets screened. The core targets were subjected to Gene Ontology(GO) and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes(KEGG) pathway enrichment analyses, and the component-target-pathway network was constructed. It was found that the main active ingredients of the formula for the treatment of GA were phenols, flavonoids, alkaloids, and terpenoids, and the key targets were SRC, MMP3, MMP9, REN, ALB, IGF1R, PPARG, MAPK1, HPRT1, and CASP1. Through GO analysis, it was found that the treatment of GA mainly involved biological processes such as lipid response, bacterial response, and biostimulus response. KEGG analysis showed that the pathways related to the treatment of GA included lipids and atherosclerosis, neutrophil extracellular traps(NETs), IL-17, and so on. In summary, phenols, flavonoids, alkaloids, and terpenoids may be the core pharmacodynamic substances of Huazhuo Sanjie Chubi Decoction in the treatment of GA, and the pharmacodynamic mechanism may be related to SRC, MMP3, MMP9, and other targets, as well as lipids and atherosclerosis, NETs, IL-17, and other pathways.
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/therapeutic use*
;
Network Pharmacology
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Arthritis, Gouty/metabolism*
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Chromatography, High Pressure Liquid/methods*
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Humans
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Mass Spectrometry/methods*
;
Protein Interaction Maps/drug effects*
9.Creation and Exploration of the"Organized Fill-in-the-Blank Format"Disci-pline Construction Model for Forensic Medicine in the New Era
Zhi-Wen WEI ; Hong-Xing WANG ; Jun-Hong SUN ; Hao-Liang FAN ; Hong-Liang SU ; Le-Le WANG ; Wen-Ting HE ; Zhe CHEN ; Jie ZHANG ; Xiang-Jie GUO ; Ji LI ; Geng-Qian ZHANG ; Xin-Hua LIANG ; Jiang-Wei YAN ; Qiang-Qiang ZHANG ; Cai-Rong GAO ; Ying-Yuan WANG ; Hong-Wei WANG ; Jun XIE ; Bo-Feng ZHU ; Ke-Ming YUN
Journal of Forensic Medicine 2025;41(1):25-29
Forensic medicine has been designated as a first-level discipline,presenting new opportunities and challenges for the development of forensic medicine.Since the 1980s,the establishment of foren-sic medicine discipline and the cultivation of high-level forensic talents have become hot topics in the development of forensic medicine in China.Since the 13th Five-Year Plan,the forensic team of Shanxi Medical University has been aiming at the forefront,proposing the development goals of"Five First-class"and the discipline development path"Six Major Achievements".It has selected benchmark disci-plines,identified gaps in disciplinary development,unified thoughts,formulated completion timelines,concentrated superior resources,assigned tasks to individuals,and created an"Organized Fill-in-the-Blank Format"forensic medicine discipline construction model with the characteristics of the new era.The construction model of forensic medicine has achieved good results in the goals,discipline frame-work,scientific research,talent cultivation,discipline team and platform construction,forming a rela-tively complete discipline construction and management system,and accumulating valuable experience for the construction of first-level discipline and high-level talent cultivation of forensic medicine.
10.Spatio-Temporal Pattern and Socio-economic Influencing Factors of Tuberculosis Incidence in Guangdong Province: A Bayesian Spatiotemporal Analysis.
Hui Zhong WU ; Xing LI ; Jia Wen WANG ; Rong Hua JIAN ; Jian Xiong HU ; Yi Jun HU ; Yi Ting XU ; Jianpeng XIAO ; Ai Qiong JIN ; Liang CHEN
Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2025;38(7):819-828
OBJECTIVE:
To investigate the spatiotemporal patterns and socioeconomic factors influencing the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) in the Guangdong Province between 2010 and 2019.
METHOD:
Spatial and temporal variations in TB incidence were mapped using heat maps and hierarchical clustering. Socioenvironmental influencing factors were evaluated using a Bayesian spatiotemporal conditional autoregressive (ST-CAR) model.
RESULTS:
Annual incidence of TB in Guangdong decreased from 91.85/100,000 in 2010 to 53.06/100,000 in 2019. Spatial hotspots were found in northeastern Guangdong, particularly in Heyuan, Shanwei, and Shantou, while Shenzhen, Dongguan, and Foshan had the lowest rates in the Pearl River Delta. The ST-CAR model showed that the TB risk was lower with higher per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) [Relative Risk ( RR), 0.91; 95% Confidence Interval ( CI): 0.86-0.98], more the ratio of licensed physicians and physician ( RR, 0.94; 95% CI: 0.90-0.98), and higher per capita public expenditure ( RR, 0.94; 95% CI: 0.90-0.97), with a marginal effect of population density ( RR, 0.86; 95% CI: 0.86-1.00).
CONCLUSION
The incidence of TB in Guangdong varies spatially and temporally. Areas with poor economic conditions and insufficient healthcare resources are at an increased risk of TB infection. Strategies focusing on equitable health resource distribution and economic development are the key to TB control.
Humans
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Incidence
;
Bayes Theorem
;
Spatio-Temporal Analysis
;
Tuberculosis/epidemiology*
;
Socioeconomic Factors

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