1.Clinical guideline for vertebral augmentation of acute symptomatic osteoporotic thoracolumbar compression fractures (version 2025)
Bolong ZHENG ; Wei MEI ; Yanzheng GAO ; Liming CHENG ; Jian CHEN ; Qixin CHEN ; Liang CHEN ; Xigao CHENG ; Jian DONG ; Jin FAN ; Shunwu FAN ; Xiangqian FANG ; Zhong FANG ; Shiqing FENG ; Haoyu FENG ; Haishan GUAN ; Yong HAI ; Baorong HE ; Lijun HE ; Yuan HE ; Hua HUI ; Weimin JIANG ; Junjie JIANG ; Dianming JIANG ; Xuewen KANG ; Hua GUO ; Jianjun LI ; Feng LI ; Li LI ; Weishi LI ; Chunde LI ; Qi LIAO ; Baoge LIU ; Xiaoguang LIU ; Xuhua LU ; Shibao LU ; Bin LIN ; Chao MA ; Xuexiao MA ; Renfu QUAN ; Limin RONG ; Honghui SUN ; Tiansheng SUN ; Yueming SONG ; Hongxun SANG ; Jun SHU ; Jiacan SU ; Jiwei TIAN ; Xinwei WANG ; Zhe WANG ; Zheng WANG ; Zhengwei XU ; Huilin YANG ; Jiancheng YANG ; Liang YAN ; Feng YAN ; Guoyong YIN ; Xuesong ZHANG ; Zhongmin ZHANG ; Jie ZHAO ; Yuhong ZENG ; Yue ZHU ; Rongqiang ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Trauma 2025;41(9):805-818
Acute symptomatic osteoporotic thoracolumbar compression fracture (ASOTLF) can lead to chronic low back pain, kyphosis deformity, pulmonary dysfunction, loss of mobility, and even life-threatening complications. Vertebral augmentation is currently the mainstream treatment method for this condition. In 2019, the Editorial Board of Chinese Journal of Trauma and the Spinal Trauma Group of Orthopedic Surgeons Branch of Chinese Medical Doctor Association collaboratively led the development of Clinical guideline for vertebral augmentation for acute symptomatic osteoporotic thoracolumbar compression fractures. Six years later, with advances in clinical diagnosis and treatment techniques as well as accumulating evidence in related fields, the 2019 guideline requires updating. To this end, the Spinal Trauma Group of Orthopedic Surgeons Branch of Chinese Medical Doctor Association, the Spinal Health Professional Committee of China Human Health Science and Technology Promotion Association, and the Minimally Invasive Orthopedics Professional Committee of Shaanxi Medical Doctor Association have organized experts in the field to develop the Clinical guideline for vertebral augmentation of acute symptomatic osteoporotic thoracolumbar compression fractures ( version 2025) , based on the latest evidence-based medical researches. This guideline incorporates 3 recommendations retained from the 2019 version with updated strength of evidence, along with 12 new recommendations. It provides recommendations from six aspects of diagnosis, pain management, treatment option selection, prevention of postoperative complications, anti-osteoporosis therapy, and postoperative rehabilitation, aiming to provide a reference for standard treatment of vertebral augmentation for ASOTLF in hospitals at all levels.
2.Clinical guideline for vertebral augmentation of acute symptomatic osteoporotic thoracolumbar compression fractures (version 2025)
Bolong ZHENG ; Wei MEI ; Yanzheng GAO ; Liming CHENG ; Jian CHEN ; Qixin CHEN ; Liang CHEN ; Xigao CHENG ; Jian DONG ; Jin FAN ; Shunwu FAN ; Xiangqian FANG ; Zhong FANG ; Shiqing FENG ; Haoyu FENG ; Haishan GUAN ; Yong HAI ; Baorong HE ; Lijun HE ; Yuan HE ; Hua HUI ; Weimin JIANG ; Junjie JIANG ; Dianming JIANG ; Xuewen KANG ; Hua GUO ; Jianjun LI ; Feng LI ; Li LI ; Weishi LI ; Chunde LI ; Qi LIAO ; Baoge LIU ; Xiaoguang LIU ; Xuhua LU ; Shibao LU ; Bin LIN ; Chao MA ; Xuexiao MA ; Renfu QUAN ; Limin RONG ; Honghui SUN ; Tiansheng SUN ; Yueming SONG ; Hongxun SANG ; Jun SHU ; Jiacan SU ; Jiwei TIAN ; Xinwei WANG ; Zhe WANG ; Zheng WANG ; Zhengwei XU ; Huilin YANG ; Jiancheng YANG ; Liang YAN ; Feng YAN ; Guoyong YIN ; Xuesong ZHANG ; Zhongmin ZHANG ; Jie ZHAO ; Yuhong ZENG ; Yue ZHU ; Rongqiang ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Trauma 2025;41(9):805-818
Acute symptomatic osteoporotic thoracolumbar compression fracture (ASOTLF) can lead to chronic low back pain, kyphosis deformity, pulmonary dysfunction, loss of mobility, and even life-threatening complications. Vertebral augmentation is currently the mainstream treatment method for this condition. In 2019, the Editorial Board of Chinese Journal of Trauma and the Spinal Trauma Group of Orthopedic Surgeons Branch of Chinese Medical Doctor Association collaboratively led the development of Clinical guideline for vertebral augmentation for acute symptomatic osteoporotic thoracolumbar compression fractures. Six years later, with advances in clinical diagnosis and treatment techniques as well as accumulating evidence in related fields, the 2019 guideline requires updating. To this end, the Spinal Trauma Group of Orthopedic Surgeons Branch of Chinese Medical Doctor Association, the Spinal Health Professional Committee of China Human Health Science and Technology Promotion Association, and the Minimally Invasive Orthopedics Professional Committee of Shaanxi Medical Doctor Association have organized experts in the field to develop the Clinical guideline for vertebral augmentation of acute symptomatic osteoporotic thoracolumbar compression fractures ( version 2025) , based on the latest evidence-based medical researches. This guideline incorporates 3 recommendations retained from the 2019 version with updated strength of evidence, along with 12 new recommendations. It provides recommendations from six aspects of diagnosis, pain management, treatment option selection, prevention of postoperative complications, anti-osteoporosis therapy, and postoperative rehabilitation, aiming to provide a reference for standard treatment of vertebral augmentation for ASOTLF in hospitals at all levels.
3.FGF19 alleviates inflammatory injury in vascular endothelial cells by activating the Nrf2/HO-1 signaling pathway.
Yan-Jun ZHANG ; Fei-Fei XIAO ; Xiao-Hua LI ; Shen-Hua TANG ; Yi SANG ; Chao-Yue LIU ; Jian-Chang LI
Chinese Journal of Contemporary Pediatrics 2025;27(5):601-608
OBJECTIVES:
To investigate the role and mechanism of fibroblast growth factor (FGF) 19 in inflammation-induced injury of vascular endothelial cells caused by high glucose (HG).
METHODS:
Human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVECs) were randomly divided into four groups: control, HG, FGF19, and HG+FGF19 (n=3 each). The effect of different concentrations of glucose and/or FGF19 on HUVEC viability was assessed using the CCK8 assay. Flow cytometry was utilized to examine the impact of FGF19 on HUVEC apoptosis. Levels of interleukin-6 (IL-6), inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS), total superoxide dismutase (T-SOD), and malondialdehyde (MDA) were measured by ELISA. Real-time quantitative PCR and Western blotting were used to determine the mRNA and protein expression levels of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), nuclear factor erythroid 2 related factor 2 (Nrf2), and heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1). Cells were further divided into control, siRNA-Nrf2 (siNrf2), HG, HG+FGF19, HG+FGF19+negative control, and HG+FGF19+siNrf2 groups (n=3 each) to observe the effect of FGF19 on oxidative stress injury in HUVECs induced by high glucose after silencing the Nrf2 gene.
RESULTS:
Compared to the control group, the HG group exhibited increased apoptosis rate, increased IL-6, iNOS and MDA levels, and increased VEGF mRNA and protein expression, along with decreased T-SOD activity and decreased mRNA and protein expression of Nrf2 and HO-1 (P<0.05). Compared to the HG group, the HG+FGF19 group showed reduced apoptosis rate, decreased IL-6, iNOS and MDA levels, and decreased VEGF mRNA and protein expression, with increased T-SOD activity and increased Nrf2 and HO-1 mRNA and protein expression (P<0.05). Compared to the HG+FGF19+negative control group, the HG+FGF19+siNrf2 group had decreased T-SOD activity and increased MDA levels (P<0.05).
CONCLUSIONS
FGF19 can alleviate inflammation-induced injury in vascular endothelial cells caused by HG, potentially through the Nrf2/HO-1 signaling pathway.
Humans
;
NF-E2-Related Factor 2/genetics*
;
Signal Transduction
;
Human Umbilical Vein Endothelial Cells/drug effects*
;
Fibroblast Growth Factors/pharmacology*
;
Heme Oxygenase-1/physiology*
;
Apoptosis/drug effects*
;
Glucose
;
Inflammation
;
Interleukin-6/analysis*
;
Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor A/genetics*
;
Nitric Oxide Synthase Type II/analysis*
;
Cells, Cultured
4.Association between atrial fibrillation reoccurrence and new-onset ischemic stroke among patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation.
Liu HE ; Chao JIANG ; Chen Xi JIANG ; Ri Bo TANG ; Cai Hua SANG ; De Yong LONG ; Xin DU ; Jian Zeng DONG ; Chang Sheng MA
Chinese Journal of Cardiology 2023;51(9):944-950
Objective: Explore the association between atrial fibrillation (AF) reoccurrence and new-onset ischemic stroke (IS) in patients with nonvalvular AF, and explore whether there is a high-risk period of IS after recurrent episodes of AF. Methods: A nested case-control study design was used. A total of 565 nonvalvular AF patients with new-onset IS after a follow-up of at least 2 years in the China-AF cohort were enrolled as the case group, and 1 693 nonvalvular AF patients without new-onset IS were matched as the control group at a ratio of 1∶3. Frequency and types of recurrent AF in the previous 1 or 2 years were compared between two groups, and the adjusted associations of AF reoccurrence with new onset IS were explored using conditional logistic regression analysis. The proportion of recurrent AF was compared between the case period and control period, and conditional logistic regression analysis was performed to calculate adjusted associations of case-period AF with IS. Results: The nested case-control study design results showed that the proportion of at least one record of recurrent AF in the previous 1 year was higher in the case group than in the control group (72.0% vs. 60.8%, P<0.05), and the recurrent AF was positively correlated with new-onset IS (adjusted OR=1.80, P<0.001). Similar results were also observed in the previous 2 years period. The case-crossover study design analysis showed that among 565 patients with new-onset IS, recurrent AF in the case period was positively correlated with IS (adjusted OR=1.61, P=0.003). Conclusion: Recurrent AF is associated with IS, and there may be a high-risk period of IS after recurrent episodes of AF.
Humans
;
Atrial Fibrillation/epidemiology*
;
Case-Control Studies
;
Cross-Over Studies
;
Ischemic Stroke
;
China/epidemiology*
5.Association between atrial fibrillation reoccurrence and new-onset ischemic stroke among patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation.
Liu HE ; Chao JIANG ; Chen Xi JIANG ; Ri Bo TANG ; Cai Hua SANG ; De Yong LONG ; Xin DU ; Jian Zeng DONG ; Chang Sheng MA
Chinese Journal of Cardiology 2023;51(9):944-950
Objective: Explore the association between atrial fibrillation (AF) reoccurrence and new-onset ischemic stroke (IS) in patients with nonvalvular AF, and explore whether there is a high-risk period of IS after recurrent episodes of AF. Methods: A nested case-control study design was used. A total of 565 nonvalvular AF patients with new-onset IS after a follow-up of at least 2 years in the China-AF cohort were enrolled as the case group, and 1 693 nonvalvular AF patients without new-onset IS were matched as the control group at a ratio of 1∶3. Frequency and types of recurrent AF in the previous 1 or 2 years were compared between two groups, and the adjusted associations of AF reoccurrence with new onset IS were explored using conditional logistic regression analysis. The proportion of recurrent AF was compared between the case period and control period, and conditional logistic regression analysis was performed to calculate adjusted associations of case-period AF with IS. Results: The nested case-control study design results showed that the proportion of at least one record of recurrent AF in the previous 1 year was higher in the case group than in the control group (72.0% vs. 60.8%, P<0.05), and the recurrent AF was positively correlated with new-onset IS (adjusted OR=1.80, P<0.001). Similar results were also observed in the previous 2 years period. The case-crossover study design analysis showed that among 565 patients with new-onset IS, recurrent AF in the case period was positively correlated with IS (adjusted OR=1.61, P=0.003). Conclusion: Recurrent AF is associated with IS, and there may be a high-risk period of IS after recurrent episodes of AF.
Humans
;
Atrial Fibrillation/epidemiology*
;
Case-Control Studies
;
Cross-Over Studies
;
Ischemic Stroke
;
China/epidemiology*
6.Catheter ablation versus medical therapy for atrial fibrillation with prior stroke history: a prospective propensity score-matched cohort study.
Wen-Li DAI ; Zi-Xu ZHAO ; Chao JIANG ; Liu HE ; Ke-Xin YAO ; Yu-Feng WANG ; Ming-Yang GAO ; Yi-Wei LAI ; Jing-Rui ZHANG ; Ming-Xiao LI ; Song ZUO ; Xue-Yuan GUO ; Ri-Bo TANG ; Song-Nan LI ; Chen-Xi JIANG ; Nian LIU ; De-Yong LONG ; Xin DU ; Cai-Hua SANG ; Jian-Zeng DONG ; Chang-Sheng MA
Journal of Geriatric Cardiology 2023;20(10):707-715
BACKGROUND:
Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and prior stroke history have a high risk of cardiovascular events despite anticoagulation therapy. It is unclear whether catheter ablation (CA) has further benefits in these patients.
METHODS:
AF patients with a previous history of stroke or systemic embolism (SE) from the prospective Chinese Atrial Fibrillation Registry study between August 2011 and December 2020 were included in the analysis. Patients were matched in a 1:1 ratio to CA or medical treatment (MT) based on propensity score. The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause death or ischemic stroke (IS)/SE.
RESULTS:
During a total of 4.1 ± 2.3 years of follow-up, the primary outcome occurred in 111 patients in the CA group (3.3 per 100 person-years) and in 229 patients in the MT group (5.7 per 100 person-years). The CA group had a lower risk of the primary outcome compared to the MT group [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.59, 95% CI: 0.47-0.74, P < 0.001]. There was a significant decreasing risk of all-cause mortality (HR = 0.43, 95% CI: 0.31-0.61, P < 0.001), IS/SE (HR = 0.73, 95% CI: 0.54-0.97, P = 0.033), cardiovascular mortality (HR = 0.32, 95% CI: 0.19-0.54, P < 0.001) and AF recurrence (HR = 0.33, 95% CI: 0.30-0.37, P < 0.001) in the CA group compared to that in the MT group. Sensitivity analysis generated consistent results when adjusting for time-dependent usage of anticoagulants.
CONCLUSIONS
In AF patients with a prior stroke history, CA was associated with a lower combined risk of all-cause death or IS/SE. Further clinical trials are warranted to confirm the benefits of CA in these patients.
7.A comparison of CAS risk model and CHA2DS2-VASc risk model in guiding anticoagulation treatment in Chinese patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation.
Jia Long DENG ; Liu HE ; Chao JIANG ; Yi Wei LAI ; De Yong LONG ; Cai Hua SANG ; Chang Qi JIA ; Li FENG ; Xu LI ; Man NING ; Rong HU ; Jian Zeng DONG ; Xin DU ; Ri Bo TANG ; Chang Sheng MA
Chinese Journal of Cardiology 2022;50(9):888-894
Objective: To compare the differences between CAS risk model and CHA2DS2-VASc risk score in predicting all cause death, thromboembolic events, major bleeding events and composite endpoint in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study. From the China Atrial Fibrillation Registry cohort study, the patients with atrial fibrillation who were>18 years old were randomly divided into CAS risk score group and CHA2DS2-VASc risk score group respectively. According to the anticoagulant status at baseline and follow-up, patients in the 2 groups who complied with the scoring specifications for anticoagulation were selected for inclusion in this study. Baseline information such as age and gender in the two groups were collected and compared. Follow-up was performed periodically to collect information on anticoagulant therapy and endpoints. The endpoints were all-cause death, thromboembolism events and major bleeding, the composite endpoint events were all-cause death and thromboembolism events. The incidence of endpoints in CAS group and CHA2DS2-VASc group was analyzed, and multivariate Cox proportional risk model was used to analyze whether the incidence of the endpoints was statistically different between the two groups. Results: A total of 5 206 patients with AF were enrolled, average aged (63.6±12.2) years, and 2092 (40.2%) women. There were 2 447 cases (47.0%) in CAS risk score group and 2 759 cases (53.0%) in CHA2DS2-VASc risk score group. In the clinical baseline data of the two groups, the proportion of left ventricular ejection fraction<55%, non-paroxysmal atrial fibrillation, oral warfarin and HAS BLED score in the CAS group were lower than those in the CHA2DS2-VASc group, while the proportion of previous diabetes history and history of antiplatelet drugs in the CAS group was higher than that in the CHA2DS2-VASc group, and there was no statistical difference in other baseline data. Patients were followed up for (82.8±40.8) months. In CAS risk score group, 225(9.2%) had all-cause death, 186 (7.6%) had thromboembolic events, 81(3.3%) had major bleeding, and 368 (15.0%) had composite endpoint. In CHA2DS2-VASc risk score group, 261(9.5%) had all-cause death 209(7.6%) had thromboembolic events, 112(4.1%) had major bleeding, and 424 (15.4%) had composite endpoint. There were no significant differences in the occurrence of all-cause death, thromboembolic events, major bleeding and composite endpoint between anticoagulation in CAS risk score group and anticoagulation in CHA2DS2-VASc risk score group (log-rank P =0.643, 0.904, 0.126, 0.599, respectively). Compared with CAS risk score, multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models showed no significant differences for all-cause death, thromboembolic events, major bleeding and composite endpoint between the two groups with HR(95%CI) 0.95(0.80-1.14), 1.00(0.82-1.22), 0.83(0.62-1.10), 0.96(0.84-1.11), respectively. All P>0.05. Conclusions: There were no significant differences between CAS risk model and CHA2DS2-VASc risk score in predicting all-cause death, thromboembolic events, and major bleeding events in Chinese patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation.
Adolescent
;
Anticoagulants
;
Atrial Fibrillation/drug therapy*
;
Cohort Studies
;
Female
;
Hemorrhage/complications*
;
Humans
;
Male
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Risk Assessment
;
Stroke/epidemiology*
;
Stroke Volume
;
Thromboembolism/etiology*
;
Ventricular Function, Left
8.Guideline for postoperative rehabilitation treatment following vertebral augmentation for osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture (version 2022)
Zhengwei XU ; Dingjun HAO ; Liming CHENG ; Baorong HE ; Bohua CHEN ; Chen CHEN ; Fei CHE ; Jian CHEN ; Qixin CHEN ; Liangjie DU ; Shunwu FAN ; Zhong FANG ; Shiqing FENG ; Yanzheng GAO ; Haishan GUAN ; Zhong GUAN ; Hua JIANG ; Weimin JIANG ; Dianming JIANG ; Jun JIANG ; Yue JIANG ; Lijun HE ; Yuan HE ; Bo LI ; Tao LI ; Jianjun LI ; Xigong LI ; Yijian LIANG ; Bin LIN ; Bin LIU ; Bo LIU ; Yong LIU ; Zhibin LIU ; Xuhua LU ; Chao MA ; Lie QIAN ; Renfu QUAN ; Hongxun SANG ; Haibo SHEN ; Jun SHU ; Honghui SUN ; Tiansheng SUN ; Jun TAN ; Mingxing TANG ; Sheng TAO ; Honglin TENG ; Yun TIAN ; Jiwei TIAN ; Qiang WANG ; Xinwei WANG ; Jianhuang WU ; Peigen XIE ; Weihong XU ; Bin YAN ; Yong YANG ; Guoyong YIN ; Xiaobing YU ; Yuhong ZENG ; Guoqing ZHANG ; Xiaobo ZHANG ; Jie ZHAO ; Yue ZHU
Chinese Journal of Trauma 2022;38(11):961-972
Osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture (OVCF) can lead to lower back pain and may be even accompanied by scoliosis, neurological dysfunction and other complications, which will affect the daily activities and life quality of patients. Vertebral augmentation is an effective treatment method for OVCF, but it cannot correct unbalance of bone metabolism or improve the osteoporotic status, causing complications like lower back pain, limited spinal activities and vertebral refracture. The post-operative systematic and standardized rehabilitation treatments can improve curative effect and therapeutic efficacy of anti-osteoporosis, reduce risk of vertebral refracture, increase patient compliance and improve quality of life. Since there still lack relevant clinical treatment guidelines for postoperative rehabilitation treatments following vertebral augmentation for OVCF, the current treatments are varied with uneven therapeutic effect. In order to standardize the postoperative rehabilitation treatment, the Spine Trauma Group of the Orthopedic Branch of Chinese Medical Doctor Association organized relevant experts to refer to relevant literature and develop the "Guideline for postoperative rehabilitation treatment following vertebral augmentation for osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture (2022 version)" based on the clinical guidelines published by the American Academy of Orthopedic Surgeons (AAOS) as well as on the principles of scientificity, practicality and advancement. The guideline provided evidence-based recommendations on 10 important issues related to postoperative rehabilitation treatments of OVCF.
9.Causes of death and influencing factors of atrial fibrillation patients undergoing anticoagulation therapy.
Chang HUA ; Chao JIANG ; Liu HE ; Zhao Xu JIA ; Wen He LYU ; Ri Bo TANG ; Cai Hua SANG ; De Yong LONG ; Jian Zeng DONG ; Chang Sheng MA ; Xin DU
Chinese Journal of Cardiology 2021;49(4):353-359
Objective: To investigate the causes of death and predictors in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF) undergoing anticoagulation therapy. Methods: Consecutive anticoagulated nonvalvular AF patients were recruited from the China Atrial Fibrillation Registry (China-AF) Study from August 2011 to December 2018. After exclusion of patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, dilated cardiomyopathy, or loss of follow-up within 1 year, 2 248 patients were included in this analysis. Enrolled patients were followed up were followed up for 3 and 6 months, and then every 6 months. The primary endpoint was death, including cardiovascular death, non-cardiovascular death and undetermined death. The patients were divided into survival group and death group according to the survival status after follow-up. Clinical information such as age and sex was collected. Cox proportional hazards regression was performed to identify associated risk factors for all-cause mortality, and Fine-Gray competing risk model was used to identify associated risk factors for cardiovascular mortality. Results: A total of 2 248 patients with atrial fibrillation receiving anticoagulant therapy died over a mean follow-up of (42±24) months, mean age was (67±10) years old and 41.1% (923/2 248) patients were female. The mortality rate was 2.8 deaths per 100 patient-years. The most common cause of death was cardiovascular deaths, accounted for 55.0% (120/218). Worsening heart failure was the most common cause of cardiovascular deaths (18.3% (40/218)), followed by bleeding events (12.9% (28/218)) and ischemic stroke (8.7% (19/218)). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that age (HR = 1.05, 95%CI 1.04-1.07, P<0.001), anemia (HR = 1.81, 95%CI 1.02-3.18, P = 0.041), heart failure (HR=2.40, 95%CI 1.75-3.30, P<0.001), ischemic stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA)(HR = 1.59, 95%CI 1.21-2.13, P = 0.001) and myocardial infarction (HR = 2.93, 95%CI 1.79-4.81, P<0.001) were independently associated with all-cause death. Fine-Gray competing risk model showed that age (HR=1.05, 95%CI 1.02-1.08, P<0.001), heart failure (HR=2.81, 95%CI 1.79-4.39, P<0.001), ischemic stroke/TIA (HR=1.50, 95%CI 1.02-2.22, P=0.041) and myocardial infarction (HR=3.31, 95%CI 1.72-6.37, P<0.001) were independently associated with cardiovascular death. Conclusions: In anticoagulated nonvalvular AF patients, ischemic stroke represents only a small subset of deaths, whereas worsening heart failure is the most common cause of cardiovascular deaths. Heart failure, ischemic stroke/TIA, and myocardial infarction are associated with increased mortality.
Aged
;
Anticoagulants/therapeutic use*
;
Atrial Fibrillation/drug therapy*
;
Cause of Death
;
China
;
Female
;
Humans
;
Male
;
Middle Aged
;
Risk Factors
;
Stroke
10.A simple and easily implemented risk model to predict 1-year ischemic stroke and systemic embolism in Chinese patients with atrial fibrillation
Chao JIANG ; Tian-Ge CHEN ; Xin DU ; Xiang LI ; Liu HE ; Yi-Wei LAI ; Shi-Jun XIA ; Rong LIU ; Yi-Ying HU ; Ying-Xue LI ; Chen-Xi JIANG ; Nian LIU ; Ri-Bo TANG ; Rong BAI ; Cai-Hua SANG ; De-Yong LONG ; Guo-Tong XIE ; Jian-Zeng DONG ; Chang-Sheng MA
Chinese Medical Journal 2021;134(19):2293-2298
Background::Accurate prediction of ischemic stroke is required for deciding anticoagulation use in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Even though only 6% to 8% of AF patients die from stroke, about 90% are indicated for anticoagulants according to the current AF management guidelines. Therefore, we aimed to develop an accurate and easy-to-use new risk model for 1-year thromboembolic events (TEs) in Chinese AF patients.Methods::From the prospective China Atrial Fibrillation Registry cohort study, we identified 6601 AF patients who were not treated with anticoagulation or ablation at baseline. We selected the most important variables by the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm and developed a simplified risk model for predicting 1-year TEs. The novel risk score was internally validated using bootstrapping with 1000 replicates and compared with the CHA 2DS 2-VA score (excluding female sex from the CHA 2DS 2-VASc score). Results::Up to the follow-up of 1 year, 163 TEs (ischemic stroke or systemic embolism) occurred. Using the XGBoost algorithm, we selected the three most important variables (congestive heart failure or left ventricular dysfunction, age, and prior stroke, abbreviated as CAS model) to predict 1-year TE risk. We trained a multivariate Cox regression model and assigned point scores proportional to model coefficients. The CAS scheme classified 30.8% (2033/6601) of the patients as low risk for TE (CAS score = 0), with a corresponding 1-year TE risk of 0.81% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.41%-1.19%). In our cohort, the C-statistic of CAS model was 0.69 (95% CI: 0.65-0.73), higher than that of CHA 2DS 2-VA score (0.66, 95% CI: 0.62-0.70, Z = 2.01, P = 0.045). The overall net reclassification improvement from CHA 2DS 2-VA categories (low = 0/high ≥1) to CAS categories (low = 0/high ≥1) was 12.2% (95% CI: 8.7%-15.7%). Conclusion::In Chinese AF patients, a novel and simple CAS risk model better predicted 1-year TEs than the widely-used CHA 2DS 2- VA risk score and identified a large proportion of patients with low risk of TEs, which could potentially improve anticoagulation decision-making. Trial Registration::www.chictr.org.cn (Unique identifier No. ChiCTR-OCH-13003729).

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