Objective To compare the performance and efficacy of prognostic models constructed by different machine learning algorithms in predicting the survival period of lung transplantation (LTx) recipients. Methods Data from 483 recipients who underwent LTx were retrospectively collected. All recipients were divided into a training set and a validation set at a ratio of 7:3. The 24 collected variables were screened based on variable importance (VIMP). Prognostic models were constructed using random survival forest (RSF) and extreme gradient boosting tree (XGBoost). The performance of the models was evaluated using the integrated area under the curve (iAUC) and time-dependent area under the curve (tAUC). Results There were no significant statistical differences in the variables between the training set and the validation set. The top 15 variables ranked by VIMP were used for modeling and the length of stay in the intensive care unit (ICU) was determined as the most important factor. Compared with the XGBoost model, the RSF model demonstrated better performance in predicting the survival period of recipients (iAUC 0.773 vs. 0.723). The RSF model also showed better performance in predicting the 6-month survival period (tAUC _{6 months} 0.884 vs. 0.809, P = 0.009) and 1-year survival period (tAUC _{1 year} 0.896 vs. 0.825, P = 0.013) of recipients. Based on the prediction cut-off values of the two algorithms, LTx recipients were divided into high-risk and low-risk groups. The survival analysis results of both models showed that the survival rate of recipients in the high-risk group was significantly lower than that in the low-risk group (P<0.001). Conclusions Compared with XGBoost, the machine learning prognostic model developed based on the RSF algorithm may preferably predict the survival period of LTx recipients.

Abstract In recent years, the prevalence of overweight and obesity among children and adolescents has risen rapidly, posing a serious threat to their physical and mental health. To provide scientific, systematic, and standardized weight management guidance for overweight and obese children and adolescents, the study focuses on the core concept of healthy lifestyle intervention, integrates multidisciplinary expert opinions and research findings,and proposes a comprehensive multidisciplinary intervention framework covering scientific exercise intervention, precise nutrition and diet, optimized sleep management, and standardized psychological support. It calls for the establishment of a multi agent collaborative management mechanism led by the government, implemented by families, fostered by schools, initiated by individuals, optimized by communities, reinforced by healthcare, and coordinated by multiple stakeholders. Emphasizing a child and adolescent centered approach, the consensus advocates for comprehensive, multi level, and personalized guidance strategies to promote the internalization and maintenance of a healthy lifestyle. It serves as a reference and provides recommendations for the effective prevention and control of overweight and obesity, and enhancing the health level of children and adolescents.

Objective To map the genome-wide distribution profile of histone H3K27me3 modification in diffuse gastric cancer tissues,identify target genes regulated by H3K27me3,and primarily explore the potential mechanism of its modification reprogramming in the occurrence and development of the tumor.Methods Normal gastric mucosal tissues and diffuse gastric cancer tissues were harvested from the patients who underwent examinations or treatments in the departments of gastroenterology and gastrointestinal surgery of our medical center between 2021 and 2023.There were 14 patients in the normal group(6 males and 8 females,average age of 46 years)and 14 patients in the gastric cancer group(8 males and 6 females,average age of 63 years).Cleavage under target and tagmentation(CUT&Tag)technology was employed to capture genomic regions modified by H3K27me3,and analyze the reprogramming characteristics of these modifications.RNA sequencing data,data from high-throughput chromosome conformation capture(Hi-C)technology,and publicly available single-cell data were integrated to investigate the target genes regulated by the reprogramming of H3K27me3 modifications in diffuse gastric cancer cells.Results The quality of the CUT&Tag and RNA sequencing data met the standards required for subsequent analysis.Histone H3K27me3 modifications in normal gastric mucosa and diffuse gastric cancer tissues were primarily distributed in distal intergenic regions and intronic regions.In gastric cancer tissues,compared to normal tissues,there was significant reprogramming of H3K27me3 modifications,characterized by a marked reduction in overall H3K27me3 signal intensity.The loss of 2 912 H3K27me3 signal peaks might lead to the up-regulation of 822 tumor-associated genes.Among them,56 genes displayed the most significant up-regulation(fold change in signal intensity≥2,P<0.05),with notable enrichment in the mammalian target of rapamycin complex 1(mTORC1)signaling pathway.Specifically,the methionine transporter SLC7A5 and the cystine transporter SLC7A11 were found to have the highest expression levels in gastric cancer tissues.Single-cell data revealed that the abnormal overexpression of SLC7A11 in diffuse gastric cancer was primarily observed in tumor epithelial cells.Further validation using public data and immunohistochemical experiments confirmed the elevated expression of SLC7A11 in diffuse gastric cancer,which is associated with poor prognosis in gastric cancer patients.Conclusion The reprogramming of histone H3K27me3 modification is an important epigenetic characteristic in diffuse gastric cancer.Loss of H3K27me3 signal peaks may up-regulate the expression of SLC7A11 in diffuse gastric cancer cells,and thereby promote tumor progression.

Objective To investigate the diagnostic value of endoscopic sign of light blue crest(LBC)capsuling papillary lesion(LCPL)for high-risk intestinal metaplasia(IM).Methods A total of 314 patients(352 biopsy specimens)who underwent endoscopic examination and biopsy in Department of Gastroenterology of Army Medical Center of PLA from January 2021 to June 2023 were recruited,and HE and HID-AB staining(the golden standard of high-risk IM)were apllied to detect the histological types and IM types.The samples were subsequently divided into chronic inflammation group,low-risk IM group,high-risk IM group,well-differentiated intestinal-type gastric cancer group,and poorly-differentiated intestinal-type gastric cancer group.The positive rate of LCPL in each group and its diagnostic efficacy were analyzed based on endoscopic images of the biopsy sites.Logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the relationship between LCPL sign and high-risk IM,as well as the clinical and pathological features associated with LCPL sign.Receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was plotted to evaluate the diagnostic efficacy of LCPL for high-risk IM,using indicators such as sensitivity,specificity,Youden index and area under the curve(AUC).Results The positive rate of the LCPL sign in high-risk IM group was 75.70%,significantly higher than that of the other groups(all P<0.001).Logistic regression analysis showed that LCPL sign was significantly correlated with high-risk IM(OR=30.286,95%CI:13.528～67.804,P<0.001).When the sign was employed in diagnosing high-risk IM,the sensitivity was 69.84%,the specificity was 93.75%,the Youden's index was 0.636,and the AUC value was 0.818(95%CI:0.773～0.857).Besides sensitivity,all above parameters of LCPL sign showed significantly better diagnostic efficacy than those of traditional LBC sign,which is used as a sign for diagnosing IM(P<0.001).Moreover,recognition of LCPL sign was not easily affected by age(OR=1.130,95%CI:0.709～1.800,P=0.607),lesion site(Angular incisure:OR=2.360,95%CI:0.732～7.613,P=0.151;Autrum:OR=2.257,95%CI:0.756～6.744,P=0.145),and presence of peptic ulcers(OR=1.085,95%CI:0.208～5.652,P=0.923).Significantly,94.12%of positive and 66.94%of negative LCPL signs could be rapidly recognized within 3 s(OR=4.536,95%CI:1.372～14.997,P=0.013).Conclusion LCPL sign shows high efficacy and potential clinical application value for high-risk IM in gastric mucosa of endoscopic diagnosis.

OBJECTIVE To compare the expression characteristics of transforming growth factor-β1(TGF-β1),Smad2,Smad3,and epithelial-mesenchymal transition(EMT)-related markers(E-cadherin,N-cadherin,vimentin)in patients with different types of chronic sinusitis(CRS),to analyze the correlations of E-cadherin,N-cadherin and vimentin with TGF-β1 and the prognosis of surgical treatment in patients with different types of CRS.METHODS The expressions of E-cadherin,N-cadherin,vimentin,TGF-β1,Smad2 and Smad3 in patients with different types of CRS and the control group were compared by Western blotting(WB)and real-time fluorescence quantitative polymerase chain reaction(qRT-PCR).Analyze its correlation with the improvement degree of each clinical score after the operation.RESULTS Compared with the control group,the expression of E-cadherin decreased in the CRSsNP group,the non-ECRSwNP group and the ECRSwNP group,while the expressions of vimentin and N-cadherin increased.The protein expression of TGF-β1 in the CRSsNP group was higher than that in the non-ECRSwNP group and the control group(P<0.001),and the expressions of Smad2 and Smad3 in the CRSsNP group were higher than those in the ECRSwNP group,the non-ECRSwNP group and the control group(P<0.001).In the CRSsNP group,there was a positive correlation between TGF-β1 and vimentin(r=0.675,P=0.011),and a negative correlation with E-cadherin(r=-0.802,P=0.001).The expression of E-cadherin was negatively correlated with the improvement amplitude of SNOT-22 nasal symptom scores in patients with different types of CRS(P<0.05).CONCLUSION The EMT phenomenon occurs in different types of CRS.In CRS SNPS,EMT may be related to the TGF-β1/Smad signaling pathway.The expressions of EMT markers E-cadherin,N-cadherin and vimentin are correlated with the decrease in the severity of postoperative disease in patients with CRS,suggesting a potential association between the EMT process and the surgical prognosis of patients with CRS.

ObjectiveTo investigate the relationship between the non-fasting triglyceride and glucose （TyG） index and hyperglycemia in pregnancy during the third trimester in high altitudes. MethodsThis study selected clinical and laboratory data of 774 Tibetan singleton pregnant women who delivered at Chaya People's Hospital of Qamdo city in Xizang autonomous region， from January 2023 to April 2025. The non-fasting TyG index was calculated from non-fasting triglyceride （TG） and random plasma glucose （PG）. Based on the tertiles of the non-fasting TyG index values， the individuals were split into three groups （corresponding to non-fasting TyG index of 8.89 and 9.21， respectively）. The baseline clinical characteristics， lipid levels and the occurrence of developing hyperglycemia in pregnancy were compared among the three groups. Statistical analyses were performed using ANOVA， Kruskal-Wallis H test， Chi-square test， or Fisher exact test and the relationship between the non-fasting TyG index and hyperglycemia in pregnancy were examined using multivariate logistic regression models and curve fitting. ResultsA total of 774 Tibetan singleton pregnant women were included， with a average age of 27.3 ± 6.1 years， a pre-delivery body mass index （Pre-BMI） of （25.2±2.3）kg/m² ， a proportion of 26.7% （207/774） primigravid women， the mean non-fasting TyG index was 9.1 ± 0.4。Thirty pregnant women were diagnosed with hyperglycemia in pregnancy， with a detection rate of 3.9% （30/774）. Statistically significant differences in serum total cholesterol （TC）， TG， low-density lipoprotein cholesterol （LDL-C） and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol （HDL-C） levels were identified when comparing different non-fasting TyG groups （all P values <0.05）. Subsequent trend test analysis indicated that the levels of TC， TG， LDL-C， and PG gradually increased with elevated the non-fasting TyG index （ F_{trend TC}=95.61， P<0.001； F_{trend TG}=1 051.91， P<0.001； F_{trend LDL-C} = 97.20， P < 0.001； F_{trend TG}=195.20； P<0.001）. After adjustment for maternal age， pre-delivery BMI， altitude， TC， LDL-C， and HDL-C， multivariate Logistic regression models revealed independent positive associations between non-fasting TyG index and hyperglycemia in pregnancy （Model 1： OR=2.72， 95% CI： 1.13-6.53， P=0.026； Model 2： OR=2.56， 95% CI： 1.01-6.50， P=0.048； Model 3： OR=2.72， 95% CI： 1.06-6.97， P=0.037； Model 4： OR=4.02， 95% CI： 1.42-11.40， P=0.009） and the incident of hyperglycemia in pregnancy showed an increasing tendency as increasing with the non-fasting TyG index， however， this association did not statistical significance （P _trend >0.05）. Curve fitting by restricted cubic splines （RCS） were used to assess linearity between non-fasting TyG and hyperglycemia in pregnancy， and there was a linear dose-response relationship between non-fasting TyG and hyperglycemia in pregnancy （P _{for non-linear} = 0.515）. ConclusionNon-fasting TyG index in the third trimester is a risk factor for hyperglycemia in pregnancy among the Tibetan singleton pregnant women at high altitudes and there was a possible linear dose-response relationship between the non-fasting TyG index and hyperglycemia in pregnancy.

Qingzao Jiufeitang is a famous classical formula for treating lung injury caused by warm and dryness， included in the Catalogue of Ancient Famous Classical Formulas（The First Batch）. By systematically organizing ancient and modern literature on this formula， this study analyzed and verified the origin， medicinal composition， original plants and processing， dosage and decoction method， efficacy and application of this formula. According to the research， Qingzao Jiufeitang was first recorded in Yimen Falyu in the Qing dynasty， and its creation was mainly inspired by the Ming dynasty physician MIAO Xiyong's idea of the moisturizing drugs with sweet flavour and cold nature. Based on the 2020 edition of the Pharmacopoeia of the People's Republic of China（hereinafter referred to as the Chinese Pharmacopoeia） and the textual research results of modern scholars on traditional Chinese herbal medicines， the botanical sources and processing methods of the herbs in this formula are basically clarified. Among them， Mori Folium， Gypsum Fibrosum， Ginseng Radix et Rhizoma， Sesami Semen Nigrum， Asini Corii Colla， Ophiopogonis Radix and Eriobotryae Folium are consistent with the 2020 edition of the Chinese Pharmacopoeia. The primary source of Glycyrrhizae Radix et Rhizoma is the dried roots and rhizomes of Glycyrrhiza uralensis， family Leguminosae， while the primary source of Armeniacae Semen Amarum is the dried mature seeds of Prunus armeniaca， family Rosaceae. It is recommended to use Gypsum Ustum， stir-fried Sesami Semen Nigrum， stir-fried Armeniacae Semen Amarum， Asini Corii Colla bead， and honey-fried Eriobotryae Folium， and the rest of the raw products. According to the conversion of ancient and modern doses， the recommended dosages are 11.19 g for Mori Folium， 9.33 g for Gypsum Fibrosum， 3.73 g for Glycyrrhizae Radix et Rhizoma， 2.61 g for Ginseng Radix et Rhizoma， 3.73 g for Sesami Semen Nigrum， 4.48 g for Ophiopogonis Radix， 2.61 g for Armeniacae Semen Amarum， 3.73 g for Eriobotryae Folium. The decoction method is to add 300 mL of water， decoct it down to 180 mL， remove the residue， and then add 2.98 g of Asini Corii Colla into the decoction. Take it warm after meals， two to three times a day. Qingzao Jiufeitang has the effects of clearing dryness and moistening the lungs， nourishing Yin and invigorating Qi. In ancient times， it was mainly used to treat stagnation and depression of various Qi， as well as paralysis， asthma and vomiting. In modern clinical practice， it is mostly used to treat diseases in respiratory system， otolaryngology， skin system and digestive system caused by warm-dry impairing lung， deficiency of both Qi and Yin. The above research results can provide a reference for the later development of Qingzao Jiufeitang.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the neuroprotective effect and underlying mechanism of Xingnao Kaiqiao acupuncture (acupuncture for regaining consciousness and opening orifices) in the rat models of cerebral ischemia-reperfusion injury (CIRI) based on the p53 protein (p53)/solute carrier family 7 member 11 (SLC7A11)/glutathione peroxidase 4 (GPX4) signaling pathway. METHODS: Of 102 male Wistar rats, 20 rats were randomly collected as a sham-operation group. Using a modified external carotid artery filament insertion method, CIRI models were prepared by occluding the middle cerebral artery in the rest rats. After modeling and excluding 1 non-successfully modeled rat and 1 dead one, the other modeled rats were randomized into a model group, an agonist group, an acupuncture group, and an acupuncture + agonist group, 20 rats in each one. Xingnao Kaiqiao acupuncture therapy was delivered in the rats of the acupuncture group and the acupuncture + agonist group. The acupoints included "Shuigou" (GV26), bilateral "Neiguan" (PC6), and "Sanyinjiao" (SP6) on the affected side. Electroacupuncture was attached to "Neiguan" (PC6) and "Sanyinjiao" (SP6) on the affected side, with dense-disperse wave, a frequency of 2 Hz/15 Hz and intensity of 1 mA. The intervention was delivered twice daily, 20 min each time and for 7 consecutive days. In the agonist group and acupuncture+agonist group, p53 agonist, COTI-2 was intraperitoneally injected (15 mg/kg), once daily for 7 consecutive days. Neurological deficit was evaluated using Zausinger's six-point scale. Cerebral infarction volume was quantified by triphenyl tetrazolium chloride (TTC) staining. Histopathological changes were observed using hematoxylin-eosin (HE) staining. Iron deposition was assessed by Prussian blue staining. Mitochondrial ultrastructure in the ischemic cortex was examined under transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Serum iron (Fe²⁺) was measured with chromometry. Malondialdehyde (MDA) and glutathione (GSH) levels in the ischemic hippocampus were determined using thiobarbituric acid and microplate assays, respectively. The mean fluorescence intensity of reactive oxygen species (ROS) in the ischemic cortex was analyzed by flow cytometry. The mRNA and protein expression of GPX4, SLC7A11, and p53 in the ischemic hippocampus were evaluated using quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR) and Western blotting, respectively. RESULTS: Compared with the sham-operated group, the model group exhibited the decrease in neurological deficit score (P<0.01), and the increase in cerebral infarction volume percentage (P<0.01). The changes of brain tissue were presented in extensive cellular necrosis, pyknotic and deeply-stained nuclei, and vacuolar degeneration. The iron deposition was elevated in cortex and hippocampus (P<0.01), mitochondrial membrane density increased, the cristae was broken or reduced, and the outer membrane ruptured. The levels of Fe²⁺ and MDA, as well as the mean flourscence intensity of ROS were elevated (P<0.01) and the level of GSH was reduced (P<0.01). The mRNA and protein expression of GPX4 and SLC7A11 was reduced (P<0.01), while that of p53 rose (P<0.01). When compared with the model group, in the agonist group, the neurological deficit score was reduced (P<0.05), the percentage of infarction volume was higher (P<0.01), the histopathological damage was further exacerbated, and the percentage of iron deposition increased in the cortex and hippocampus (P<0.01). The mitochondrial quantity decreased, the membrane density increased, the mitochondrial cristae were broken or reduced, and the outer membrane was ruptured. The levels of Fe²⁺ and MDA, as well as the mean flourscence intensity of ROS were higher (P<0.01, P<0.05) and the level of GSH was reduced (P<0.05). The mRNA and protein expression of GPX4 and SLC7A11 decreased (P<0.01, P<0.05), while that of p53 was elevated (P<0.01). Besides, in comparison with the model group, the neurological deficit score was higher in the acupuncture group and the acupuncture + agonist group (P<0.01, P<0.05), the percentage of cerebral infarction volume was lower in the acupuncture group (P<0.01), the pathological damage of brain tissue was alleviated in the acupuncture group and the acupuncture + agonist group, and the percentage of iron depositiondecreased in the cortex and hippocampus (P<0.01). The mitochondrial structure was relatively clear, the mitochondrial cristae were fractured or reduced mildly in the acupuncture group and the acupuncture + agonist group. The levels of Fe²⁺ and MDA, as well as the mean flourscence intensity of ROS were lower (P<0.01) and the level of GSH was higher (P<0.01) in the acupuncture group. The mean fluorescence intensity of ROS were dropped (P<0.01) in the acupuncture + agonist group. The mRNA expression of GPX4 and SLC7A11 was elevated (P<0.01) and that of p53 was reduced (P<0.01, P<0.05) in either the acupuncture group or the acupuncture + agonist group; the protein expression of GPX4 and SLC7A11 rose (P<0.05, P<0.01) and that of p53 was dropped (P<0.01) in the acupuncture group; and the protein expression of p53 was also lower in the acupuncture + agonist group (P<0.05). When compared with the agonist group, in the acupuncture + agonist group, neurological deficit score increased (P<0.01), the percentage of cerebral infarction volume decreased (P<0.01), the pathological brain tissue damage was reduced, the percentage of iron deposition in cortex and hippocampus decreased (P<0.01), the mitochondrial structure was relatively clear and the cristae broken or reduced slightly; the levels of Fe²⁺ and MDA, as well as the mean fluorescence intensity of ROS were dropped (P<0.01), while the level of GSH increased (P<0.05); the mRNA and protein expression of GPX4 and SLC7411 was elevated (P<0.01, P<0.05), and that of p53 reduced (P<0.01). In comparison with the acupuncture + agonist group, in the acupuncture group, the neurological deficit score increased (P<0.05), the percentage of cerebral infarction volume decreased (P<0.05), the pathological brain tissue damage was alleviated, the percentage of iron deposition in cortex and hippocampus decreased (P<0.01), the mitochondrial structure was normal in tendency; the levels of Fe²⁺ and MDA, as well as the mean fluorescence intensity of ROS were reduced (P<0.05), while the level of GSH rose (P<0.01); the mRNA and protein expression of GPX4 and SLC7411 was elevated (P<0.01, P<0.05), and that of p53 reduced (P<0.01, P<0.05). CONCLUSION Xingnao Kaiqiao acupuncture can alleviate neurological damage in CIRI rats, which is obtained probably by inhibiting ferroptosis through p53/SLC7A11/GPX4 pathway.
Animals ; Reperfusion Injury/metabolism* ; Male ; Acupuncture Therapy ; Rats ; Tumor Suppressor Protein p53/genetics* ; Brain Ischemia/metabolism* ; Rats, Wistar ; Signal Transduction ; Humans ; Phospholipid Hydroperoxide Glutathione Peroxidase/genetics* ; Disease Models, Animal ; Acupuncture Points ; Amino Acid Transport System y+/genetics*

BACKGROUND: Biomarkers-based prediction of long-term risk of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is scarce. We aim to develop a risk score integrating clinical routine information (C) and plasma biomarkers (B) for predicting long-term risk of ACS patients. METHODS: We included 2729 ACS patients from the OCEA (Observation of cardiovascular events in ACS patients). The earlier admitted 1910 patients were enrolled as development cohort; and the subsequently admitted 819 subjects were treated as validation cohort. We investigated 10-year risk of cardiovascular (CV) death, myocardial infarction (MI) and all cause death in these patients. Potential variables contributing to risk of clinical events were assessed using Cox regression models and a score was derived using main part of these variables. RESULTS: During 16,110 person-years of follow-up, there were 238 CV death/MI in the development cohort. The 7 most important predictors including in the final model were NT-proBNP, D-dimer, GDF-15, peripheral artery disease (PAD), Fibrinogen, ST-segment elevated MI (STEMI), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), termed as CB-ACS score. C-index of the score for predication of cardiovascular events was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.76-0.82) in development cohort and 0.77 (95% CI: 0.76-0.78) in the validation cohort (5832 person-years of follow-up), which outperformed GRACE 2.0 and ABC-ACS risk score. The CB-ACS score was also well calibrated in development and validation cohort (Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino: P = 0.70 and P = 0.07, respectively). CONCLUSIONS CB-ACS risk score provides a useful tool for long-term prediction of CV events in patients with ACS. This model outperforms GRACE 2.0 and ABC-ACS ischemic risk score.

Mycophenolic acid (MPA), the active moiety of both mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) and enteric-coated mycophenolate sodium (EC-MPS), serves as a primary immunosuppressant for maintaining solid organ transplants. Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) enhances treatment outcomes through tailored approaches. This study aimed to develop an evidence-based guideline for MPA TDM, facilitating its rational application in clinical settings. The guideline plan was drawn from the Institute of Medicine and World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. Using the Delphi method, clinical questions and outcome indicators were generated. Systematic reviews, Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) evidence quality evaluations, expert opinions, and patient values guided evidence-based suggestions for the guideline. External reviews further refined the recommendations. The guideline for the TDM of MPA (IPGRP-2020CN099) consists of four sections and 16 recommendations encompassing target populations, monitoring strategies, dosage regimens, and influencing factors. High-risk populations, timing of TDM, area under the curve (AUC) versus trough concentration (C₀), target concentration ranges, monitoring frequency, and analytical methods are addressed. Formulation-specific recommendations, initial dosage regimens, populations with unique considerations, pharmacokinetic-informed dosing, body weight factors, pharmacogenetics, and drug‍-‍drug interactions are covered. The evidence-based guideline offers a comprehensive recommendation for solid organ transplant recipients undergoing MPA therapy, promoting standardization of MPA TDM, and enhancing treatment efficacy and safety.
Mycophenolic Acid/administration & dosage* ; Drug Monitoring/methods* ; Humans ; Organ Transplantation ; Immunosuppressive Agents/administration & dosage* ; Delphi Technique