1.Optimization of Processing Technology of Honey Bran-fried Rosae Laevigatae Fructus and Analysis of Its Mechanism in Treatment of Ulcerative Colitis
Bin LIU ; Lingyun ZHONG ; Hongbing LUO ; Qi DENG ; Fuyu XU ; Simin ZHONG ; Ying ZHOU ; Xide YE ; Feipeng GONG ; Yuncheng GU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(16):216-224
ObjectiveTo optimize the processing technology of honey bran-fried Rosae Laevigatae Fructus(h-RLF), formulate relevant quality standards, and explore its improving effect and mechanism on mice with ulcerative colitis(UC) induced by dextran sodium sulfate(DSS). MethodsTaking the content of polysaccharides and water-soluble extract as the indexes, L9(34) orthogonal test was used to optimize parameters of the amount of honey bran, frying time and frying temperature. The quality of 15 batches of h-RLF decoction pieces was evaluated according to the optimized process, and the inspection limit standard was preliminarily drawn up. Eighty SPF male Kunming mice were randomly divided into 8 groups, including the blank group, model group, mesalazine group(0.13 g·kg-1), RLF group(3.77 g·kg-1), bran-fried RLF group(3.77 g·kg-1), h-RLF low, medium and high dose groups(1.89, 3.77, 7.54 g·kg-1), with 10 mice in each group. The mice in the blank group were free to drink pure water, and the other groups were free to drink 3% DSS solution for 7 days to prepare UC mouse model. Each treatment group was given corresponding drugs by intragastric administration, and the blank and model groups were given equal volume of normal saline. The body weight of mice was recorded daily and the disease activity index(DAI) was calculated. After the administration, the colon tissues of mice were collected to observe the pathological changes by hematoxylin-eosin(HE) staining. The levels of tumor necrosis factor(TNF)-α, interleukin(IL)-1β, IL-6 and IL-10 in the colon of mice were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay(ELISA). Western blot was used to detect the expression levels of phosphorylation nuclear transcription factor-κB p65(p-NF-κB p65), Toll-like receptor 4(TLR4), p-p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase(p-p38 MAPK), p-extracellular signal-regulated kinase(p-ERK) and p-c-Jun N-terminal kinase(p-JNK) proteins in colon tissues. ResultsThe optimum processing technology of h-RLF was 20 g honey bran per 100 g RLF, and stir-frying at 200 ℃ for 8 min. The limit standard under the examination of h-RLF was preliminarily formulated as follows:the polysaccharide content should not be less than 25% based on anhydrous glucose(C6H12O6), the content of water-soluble extract should not be less than 38%, the moisture content should not be more than 12.0%, the total ash content should not be more than 5.0%, and the acid-insoluble ash content should not be more than 1.0%. The cluster heat map analysis showed that the quality of RLF from Huanggang, Hubei province was better. Animal experiments showed that compared with the blank group, the DAI score of the model group was significantly increased, the levels of TNF-α, IL-1β and IL-6 in the colon tissue were significantly increased, the IL-10 level was significantly decreased, the colonic mucosa was seriously damaged, accompanied by a large number of inflammatory cell infiltration, tissue congestion and a significant reduction in glands, and the expression levels of p-NF-κB p65, TLR4, p-p38 MAPK, p-ERK and p-JNK proteins were significantly increased(P<0.01). Compared with the model group, each administration group could alleviate the symptoms of colonic ulcer, the structure of colonic crypt was basically intact, and the glands were arranged in an orderly manner. Among them, the high-dose group of h-RLF had a better effect, which could significantly reduce the DAI score and the levels of TNF-α, IL-1β and IL-6 in colon tissue(P<0.01), and significantly increase the level of IL-10(P<0.01), alleviate the colonic mucosal injury, and effectively inhibit the expression levels of p-NF-κB p65, TLR4, p-p38 MAPK, p-ERK and p-JNK proteins(P<0.01). ConclusionThe key parameters of the processing technology of h-RLF are determined, and the optimized technology is stable and feasible. The established quality standard is simple and reliable, and can be used for the quality control. h-RLF can effectively alleviate DSS-induced UC, and its mechanism may be related to inhibiting the activation of NF-κB/TLR4/MAPK pathway.
2.Correlation between iodine level in drinking water and conventional water quality indicators
Xiaoxue SHI ; Demei ZHOU ; Chun XIE ; Hongbing YE ; Yang LI ; Xuan LI ; Gang CHEN ; Mengjie YANG ; Hong XIANG
Chinese Journal of Endemiology 2025;44(7):558-562
Objective:To study the correlation between iodine level in drinking water and conventional water quality indicators.Methods:From June 2017 to July 2018, a simple random sampling method was used to select administrative villages (communities) from 88 counties (cities, districts) in Guizhou Province with a sampling size greater than 5%. One drinking water sample was collected from each administrative village (community), and conventional water quality indicators (including fluorine, aluminum, mercury, selenium, sulfate, total dissolved solids and total hardness) were tested in accordance with the methods outlined in the "Standards for Drinking Water Quality" (GB 5749-2006). The cerium sulfate catalytic spectrophotometric method was employed to test drinking water iodine level. Spearman method was utilized to analyze the correlation between iodine level in drinking water and conventional water quality indicators.Results:A total of 904 drinking water samples were tested, with a median iodine level of 1.90 μg/L and a range of 0.10 - 36.70 μg/L. There were 899 administrative villages (communities) with a water iodine level of less than 10 μg/L, accounting for 99.45%. There were only 5 administrative villages (communities) with a water iodine level of greater than 10 μg/L, accounting for 0.55%. Correlation analysis revealed that in Guizhou Province, the iodine level in drinking water was positively correlated with the levels of fluorine, aluminum, sulfate, total dissolved solids, and total hardness [correlation coefficients ( r) = 0.11, 0.07, 0.07, 0.08, 0.07, P < 0.05], and was a negatively correlated with mercury and selenium levels ( r = - 0.12, - 0.12, P < 0.001). Conclusions:External environment in Guizhou Province is generally deficient in iodine. The iodine level in drinking water is positively correlated with the levels of fluorine, aluminum, sulfate, total dissolved solids, and total hardness, and negatively correlated with the levels of mercury and selenium.
3.Investigation and analysis of iodine level in drinking water and iodine nutrition status of key populations in Guizhou Province in 2023
Demei ZHOU ; Hongbing YE ; Yang LI ; Hong XIANG ; Xuan LI ; Li YANG ; Jing GAO ; Chaozhong LEI
Chinese Journal of Endemiology 2025;44(9):719-725
Objective:To investigate the distribution of iodine in drinking water in external environment and the iodine nutrition status of key population in Guizhou Province, and to provide a basis for further precise implementation of prevention and control strategy of "adapting to local conditions, providing classified guidance, and scientifically supplementing iodine".Methods:From April to September 2023, a survey on the iodine level of residents' drinking water was conducted in administrative villages (neighborhood committees, hereafter referred to as administrative village) in 88 counties (districts) of 9 cities (prefectures) in Guizhou Province. At the same time, one township (town) was selected from each of the five districts of east, west, south, north and center of each county (district). From each township (town), 40 non-boarding students aged 8 - 10 years old from one primary school and 20 pregnant women were selected. Household edible salt sample and once random urine sample were collected for detection of salt iodine and urinary iodine levels.Results:The survey covered 16 492 administrative villages in 1 481 townships (towns), 88 counties (districts), 9 cities (prefectures) throughout the province. A total of 51 531 samples of residents' drinking water were collected, with a median water iodine level of 1.50 μg/L and a range of 0.01 - 98.70 μg/L. Among them, there were 16 284, 208, and 0 administrative villages with median water iodine levels < 10, 10 - < 40, and 40 - 100 μg/L, respectively, accounting for 98.74%, 1.26%, and 0, respectively. A total of 26 491 samples of household edible salt were collected from children and pregnant women, with a median salt iodine levels of 27.6 mg/kg. The coverage rate of iodized salt was 99.6% (26 395/26 491), and the qualified iodized salt consumption rate was 97.0% (25 708/26 491). And 17 657 urine samples from children and 8 834 urine samples from pregnant women were collected, with median urinary iodine levels of 222.1 and 164.4 μg/L, respectively. There were statistically significant differences in urinary iodine levels among children of different genders and ages ( Z = - 6.08, H = 19.17, P < 0.001). The results of correlation analysis showed that there was no correlation between urinary iodine of children and pregnant women and water iodine ( r = 0.01 0.02, P > 0.05), while urinary iodine of pregnant women was positively correlated with salt iodine ( r = 0.02, P = 0.041). Conclusions:The external environment of Guizhou Province is generally deficient in iodine. Under the universal salt iodization policy, children have sufficient iodine nutrition, and pregnant women have an appropriate level of iodine nutrition. Comprehensive prevention and control measures, mainly based on universal salt iodization, should be continuously carried out to eliminate the harm of iodine deficiency.
4.Epidemiological characteristics and spatial clustering of dental fluorosis in children aged 8 - 12 in Guizhou Province from 2019 to 2022
Huiyi SHI ; Xuan LI ; Jing GAO ; Boyou ZHANG ; Cuisang WANG ; Demei ZHOU ; Jun LI ; Guanghong YANG ; Hongbing YE
Chinese Journal of Endemiology 2025;44(2):112-118
Objective:To analyze the epidemiological characteristics, spatial clustering, and correlation between dental fluorosis detection rates and meteorological factors in children aged 8 - 12 years old in 37 counties (cities, districts, hereinafter referred to as counties) affected by coal-burning-borne endemic fluorosis in Guizhou Province, and to provide a scientific basis for prevention and control of the disease.Methods:Monitoring data on dental fluorosis in children aged 8 - 12 years old from 2019 to 2022 were collected from the National Health Security Information System for Endemic Diseases. Meteorological data, including annual average temperature, annual average precipitation, annual sunshine hours, and annual average relative humidity, were obtained from the Guizhou Provincial Bureau of Statistics. Descriptive epidemiology, analytical epidemiology, and spatial correlation analysis methods were used to analyze the data. Visual maps were created based on the clustering levels of annual dental fluorosis detection rates (high-high, low-low, high-low, low-high). Spatial autocorrelation and meteorological factors were used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics, spatial clustering, and the impact of meteorological factors on dental fluorosis.Results:From 2019 to 2022, a total of 3 649 161 children aged 8 - 12 in the counties affected by coal-burning-borne endemic fluorosis were monitored, and 115 793 children were diagnosed with dental fluorosis, with a detection rate of 3.17%. The detection rates were 4.73% (45 093/954 338) in 2019, 3.35% (31 424/938 445) in 2020, 2.86% (21 727/760 195) in 2021, and 1.76% (17 549/996 183) in 2022, respectively. The dental fluorosis indices were 0.09, 0.07, 0.06, and 0.03, respectively. The number of counties with detection rates > 6% was 7, 5, 5, and 0 in 2019 - 2022, respectively. Dafang County consistently had the highest detection rates, with rates of 10.06% (6 783/67 408), 10.07% (1 955/19 421), 13.54% (4 017/29 667), and 4.83% (3 284/76 206) in 2019 - 2022, respectively. The Moran's I indices for dental fluorosis detection rates were 0.45, 0.53, 0.53, and 0.53 in 2019 - 2022, with Z = 4.29, 5.07, 5.31, and 5.10, respectively ( P < 0.05), indicating global spatial autocorrelation (positive) and spatial clustering of dental fluorosis detection rates. The number of counties with "high-high" clustering of detection rates was 7, 7, 6, and 7 in 2019 - 2022, mainly concentrated in the northwestern region, including Qixingguan District, Nayong County, Dafang County, Zhijin County, and Jinsha County of Bijie City. "Low-high" clustering areas were distributed in Zhongshan District of Liupanshui City in 2019, 2020, and 2022. The detection rate of dental fluorosis was associated with local annual average temperature (°C) and annual precipitation (mm) ( r = - 0.393, - 0.337, P = 0.016, 0.041). Conclusions:From 2019 to 2022, the detection rate of dental fluorosis in children aged 8 - 12 in coal-burning-borne endemic fluorosis areas in Guizhou Province has been decreasing year by year, and it shows spatial clustering. The high clustering area is in the northwest of Guizhou Province, which should be regarded as a key prevention and control area for coal-burning-borne fluorosis in the future. At the same time, areas with lower temperatures and precipitation should also strengthen prevention and control efforts.
5.Correlation between iodine level in drinking water and conventional water quality indicators
Xiaoxue SHI ; Demei ZHOU ; Chun XIE ; Hongbing YE ; Yang LI ; Xuan LI ; Gang CHEN ; Mengjie YANG ; Hong XIANG
Chinese Journal of Endemiology 2025;44(7):558-562
Objective:To study the correlation between iodine level in drinking water and conventional water quality indicators.Methods:From June 2017 to July 2018, a simple random sampling method was used to select administrative villages (communities) from 88 counties (cities, districts) in Guizhou Province with a sampling size greater than 5%. One drinking water sample was collected from each administrative village (community), and conventional water quality indicators (including fluorine, aluminum, mercury, selenium, sulfate, total dissolved solids and total hardness) were tested in accordance with the methods outlined in the "Standards for Drinking Water Quality" (GB 5749-2006). The cerium sulfate catalytic spectrophotometric method was employed to test drinking water iodine level. Spearman method was utilized to analyze the correlation between iodine level in drinking water and conventional water quality indicators.Results:A total of 904 drinking water samples were tested, with a median iodine level of 1.90 μg/L and a range of 0.10 - 36.70 μg/L. There were 899 administrative villages (communities) with a water iodine level of less than 10 μg/L, accounting for 99.45%. There were only 5 administrative villages (communities) with a water iodine level of greater than 10 μg/L, accounting for 0.55%. Correlation analysis revealed that in Guizhou Province, the iodine level in drinking water was positively correlated with the levels of fluorine, aluminum, sulfate, total dissolved solids, and total hardness [correlation coefficients ( r) = 0.11, 0.07, 0.07, 0.08, 0.07, P < 0.05], and was a negatively correlated with mercury and selenium levels ( r = - 0.12, - 0.12, P < 0.001). Conclusions:External environment in Guizhou Province is generally deficient in iodine. The iodine level in drinking water is positively correlated with the levels of fluorine, aluminum, sulfate, total dissolved solids, and total hardness, and negatively correlated with the levels of mercury and selenium.
6.Investigation and analysis of iodine level in drinking water and iodine nutrition status of key populations in Guizhou Province in 2023
Demei ZHOU ; Hongbing YE ; Yang LI ; Hong XIANG ; Xuan LI ; Li YANG ; Jing GAO ; Chaozhong LEI
Chinese Journal of Endemiology 2025;44(9):719-725
Objective:To investigate the distribution of iodine in drinking water in external environment and the iodine nutrition status of key population in Guizhou Province, and to provide a basis for further precise implementation of prevention and control strategy of "adapting to local conditions, providing classified guidance, and scientifically supplementing iodine".Methods:From April to September 2023, a survey on the iodine level of residents' drinking water was conducted in administrative villages (neighborhood committees, hereafter referred to as administrative village) in 88 counties (districts) of 9 cities (prefectures) in Guizhou Province. At the same time, one township (town) was selected from each of the five districts of east, west, south, north and center of each county (district). From each township (town), 40 non-boarding students aged 8 - 10 years old from one primary school and 20 pregnant women were selected. Household edible salt sample and once random urine sample were collected for detection of salt iodine and urinary iodine levels.Results:The survey covered 16 492 administrative villages in 1 481 townships (towns), 88 counties (districts), 9 cities (prefectures) throughout the province. A total of 51 531 samples of residents' drinking water were collected, with a median water iodine level of 1.50 μg/L and a range of 0.01 - 98.70 μg/L. Among them, there were 16 284, 208, and 0 administrative villages with median water iodine levels < 10, 10 - < 40, and 40 - 100 μg/L, respectively, accounting for 98.74%, 1.26%, and 0, respectively. A total of 26 491 samples of household edible salt were collected from children and pregnant women, with a median salt iodine levels of 27.6 mg/kg. The coverage rate of iodized salt was 99.6% (26 395/26 491), and the qualified iodized salt consumption rate was 97.0% (25 708/26 491). And 17 657 urine samples from children and 8 834 urine samples from pregnant women were collected, with median urinary iodine levels of 222.1 and 164.4 μg/L, respectively. There were statistically significant differences in urinary iodine levels among children of different genders and ages ( Z = - 6.08, H = 19.17, P < 0.001). The results of correlation analysis showed that there was no correlation between urinary iodine of children and pregnant women and water iodine ( r = 0.01 0.02, P > 0.05), while urinary iodine of pregnant women was positively correlated with salt iodine ( r = 0.02, P = 0.041). Conclusions:The external environment of Guizhou Province is generally deficient in iodine. Under the universal salt iodization policy, children have sufficient iodine nutrition, and pregnant women have an appropriate level of iodine nutrition. Comprehensive prevention and control measures, mainly based on universal salt iodization, should be continuously carried out to eliminate the harm of iodine deficiency.
7.Epidemiological characteristics and spatial clustering of dental fluorosis in children aged 8 - 12 in Guizhou Province from 2019 to 2022
Huiyi SHI ; Xuan LI ; Jing GAO ; Boyou ZHANG ; Cuisang WANG ; Demei ZHOU ; Jun LI ; Guanghong YANG ; Hongbing YE
Chinese Journal of Endemiology 2025;44(2):112-118
Objective:To analyze the epidemiological characteristics, spatial clustering, and correlation between dental fluorosis detection rates and meteorological factors in children aged 8 - 12 years old in 37 counties (cities, districts, hereinafter referred to as counties) affected by coal-burning-borne endemic fluorosis in Guizhou Province, and to provide a scientific basis for prevention and control of the disease.Methods:Monitoring data on dental fluorosis in children aged 8 - 12 years old from 2019 to 2022 were collected from the National Health Security Information System for Endemic Diseases. Meteorological data, including annual average temperature, annual average precipitation, annual sunshine hours, and annual average relative humidity, were obtained from the Guizhou Provincial Bureau of Statistics. Descriptive epidemiology, analytical epidemiology, and spatial correlation analysis methods were used to analyze the data. Visual maps were created based on the clustering levels of annual dental fluorosis detection rates (high-high, low-low, high-low, low-high). Spatial autocorrelation and meteorological factors were used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics, spatial clustering, and the impact of meteorological factors on dental fluorosis.Results:From 2019 to 2022, a total of 3 649 161 children aged 8 - 12 in the counties affected by coal-burning-borne endemic fluorosis were monitored, and 115 793 children were diagnosed with dental fluorosis, with a detection rate of 3.17%. The detection rates were 4.73% (45 093/954 338) in 2019, 3.35% (31 424/938 445) in 2020, 2.86% (21 727/760 195) in 2021, and 1.76% (17 549/996 183) in 2022, respectively. The dental fluorosis indices were 0.09, 0.07, 0.06, and 0.03, respectively. The number of counties with detection rates > 6% was 7, 5, 5, and 0 in 2019 - 2022, respectively. Dafang County consistently had the highest detection rates, with rates of 10.06% (6 783/67 408), 10.07% (1 955/19 421), 13.54% (4 017/29 667), and 4.83% (3 284/76 206) in 2019 - 2022, respectively. The Moran's I indices for dental fluorosis detection rates were 0.45, 0.53, 0.53, and 0.53 in 2019 - 2022, with Z = 4.29, 5.07, 5.31, and 5.10, respectively ( P < 0.05), indicating global spatial autocorrelation (positive) and spatial clustering of dental fluorosis detection rates. The number of counties with "high-high" clustering of detection rates was 7, 7, 6, and 7 in 2019 - 2022, mainly concentrated in the northwestern region, including Qixingguan District, Nayong County, Dafang County, Zhijin County, and Jinsha County of Bijie City. "Low-high" clustering areas were distributed in Zhongshan District of Liupanshui City in 2019, 2020, and 2022. The detection rate of dental fluorosis was associated with local annual average temperature (°C) and annual precipitation (mm) ( r = - 0.393, - 0.337, P = 0.016, 0.041). Conclusions:From 2019 to 2022, the detection rate of dental fluorosis in children aged 8 - 12 in coal-burning-borne endemic fluorosis areas in Guizhou Province has been decreasing year by year, and it shows spatial clustering. The high clustering area is in the northwest of Guizhou Province, which should be regarded as a key prevention and control area for coal-burning-borne fluorosis in the future. At the same time, areas with lower temperatures and precipitation should also strengthen prevention and control efforts.
8.Expert consensus on the diagnosis and treatment of chronic sinusitis in children.
Yong FU ; Jia LIU ; Jing LI ; Keqing ZHAO ; Qinglong GU ; Wei SONG ; Qi LI ; Yan JIANG ; Jing YE ; Xiangdong WANG ; Jiren DAI ; Hongtian WANG ; Yu XU ; Meiping LU ; Wenlong LIU ; Hongbing YAO ; Yong LI ; Huabin LI
Journal of Clinical Otorhinolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery 2024;38(12):1091-1099
Objective:Pediatric chronic sinusitis (CRS) is a common disease within the field of otolaryngology-head and neck surgery. Due to the immaturity of sinus development and immune competence in children, its etiology and pathophysiology are complex, and its clinical features and outcomes differ significantly from those in adult patients. Currently, there are issues in the diagnosis and treatment of pediatric CRS, particularly in areas such as antibiotic use and surgical interventions, owing to a lack of sufficient attention. In recognition of this, the Chinese Rhinopathy Research Cooperation Group developed this expert consensus based on a systematic review of the latest literatures from both domestic and international sources, with reference to the latest evidence-based medical evidence worldwide, and in combination with their own clinical experience. The consensus covers various aspects including epidemiology, predisposing factors, pathophysiology, diagnosis and differential diagnosis, as well as treatment strategies such as medical therapy and surgical intervention. It aims to standardize the clinical diagnosis and treatment of pediatric CRS, improve clinical efficacy and patient satisfaction, reduce clinical expenditures, and decrease the occurrence of adverse reactions.
Humans
;
Sinusitis/therapy*
;
Chronic Disease
;
Child
;
Consensus
;
Anti-Bacterial Agents/therapeutic use*
9.Endovascular treatment for symptomatic non-acute long-segment occlusion of the internal carotid artery: comparison with drug therapy
Yue ZHU ; Chao HOU ; Shuxian HUO ; Qin YIN ; Xianjun HUANG ; Wen SUN ; Guodong XIAO ; Yong YANG ; Hongbing CHEN ; Min LI ; Mingyang DU ; Ruidong YE
International Journal of Cerebrovascular Diseases 2024;32(8):576-584
Objective:To investigate the clinical outcome of endovascular treatment vs. drug treatment in patients with symptomatic non-acute long-segment occlusion of the internal carotid artery. Methods:Based on prospective cohort registration research data, patients with symptomatic non-acute long-segment occlusion of internal carotid artery were retrospectively included. They were divided into a drug treatment group and an endovascular treatment group according to the actual treatment received. The latter was further divided into a successful recanalization group and an unsuccessful recanalization group. The endpoint events included ipsilateral ischemic stroke, any stroke, and all-cause death. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to compare the endpoint events between groups during the perioprocedural period (within 30 days), and multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was use to compare the endpoint events between the groups during the long-term follow-up. Results:A total of 684 patients were included, of which 570 (83.33%) were male, median aged 63 years (interquartile range, 56-70 years). Three hundred and fifty-three patients (51.6%) received drug treatment; 331 (48.4%) received endovascular treatment, of which 161 (48.6%) had successful recanalization. The median follow-up time was 1 223 days (interquartile range, 646.5-2 082 days), with 109 patients (15.9%) experiencing stroke recurrence events (including 87 ipsilateral ischemic stroke) and 78 (11.4%) experiencing all-cause mortality. The risk of any stroke during the perioprocedural period in the successful recanalization group was significantly higher than that in the drug treatment group (odds ratio 3.679, 95% confidence interval 1.038-13.036; P=0.044), but the risk of ipsilateral ischemic stroke recurrence (risk ratio 0.347, 95% confidence interval 0.152-0.791; P=0.012) and all-cause mortality (risk ratio 0.239, 95% confidence interval 0.093-0.618; P=0.003) during the long-term follow-up were significantly lower than those in the drug treatment group. Conclusions:In patients with symptomatic non-acute long-segment occlusion of the internal carotid artery, endovascular treatment can increase the risk of stroke recurrence within 30 days, but successful recanalization can reduce the risks of long-term ipsilateral ischemic stroke recurrence and all-cause mortality.
10.A decision tree model to predict successful endovascular recanalization of non-acute internal carotid artery occlusion
Shuxian HUO ; Chao HOU ; Xuan SHI ; Qin YIN ; Xianjun HUANG ; Wen SUN ; Guodong XIAO ; Yong YANG ; Hongbing CHEN ; Min LI ; Mingyang DU ; Yunfei HAN ; Xiaobing FAN ; Xinfeng LIU ; Ruidong YE
International Journal of Cerebrovascular Diseases 2023;31(7):481-489
Objective:To investigate predictive factors for successful endovascular recanalization in patients with non-acute symptomatic internal carotid artery occlusion (SICAO), to develop a decision tree model using the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) algorithm, and to evaluate the predictive performance of the model.Methods:Patients with non-acute SICAO received endovascular therapy at 8 comprehensive stroke centers in China were included retrospectively. They were randomly assigned to a training set and a validation set. In the training set, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithm was used to screen important variables, and a decision tree prediction model was constructed based on CART algorithm. The model was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and confusion matrix in the validation set.Results:A total of 511 patients with non-acute SICAO were included. They were randomly divided into a training set ( n=357) and a validation set ( n=154) in a 7:3 ratio. The successful recanalization rates after endovascular therapy were 58.8% and 58.4%, respectively. There was no statistically significant difference ( χ2=0.007, P=0.936). A CART decision tree model consisting of 5 variables, 5 layers and 9 classification rules was constructed using the six non-zero-coefficient variables selected by LASSO regression. The predictive factors for successful recanalization included fewer occluded segments, proximal tapered stump, ASITN/SIR collateral grading of 1-2, ischemic stroke, and a recent event to endovascular therapy time of 1-30 d. ROC analysis showed that the area under curve of the decision tree model in the training set was 0.810 (95% confidence interval 0.764-0.857), and the optimal cut-off value for predicting successful recanalization was 0.71. The area under curve in the validation set was 0.763 (95% confidence interval 0.687-0.839). The accuracy was 70.1%, precision was 81.4%, sensitivity was 63.3%, and specificity was 79.7%. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test in both groups showed P>0.05. Conclusion:Based on the type of ischemic event, the time from the latest event to endovascular therapy, proximal stump morphology, the number of occluded segments, and the ASITN/SIR collateral grading constructed the decision tree model can effectively predict successful recanalization after non-acute SICAO endovascular therapy.

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