1.Association of traditional Chinese medicine syndromes with blood lipid profiles and cardiovascular prognosis in post-percutaneous coronary intervention atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease patients: a prospective cohort study
Huangyu XU ; Qian LI ; Haozhe XIONG ; Weidong HONG ; Xinyi ZHOU ; Xiaoyan LU ; Xiaoli LIU ; Xinrong FAN
Digital Chinese Medicine 2026;9(1):91-102
Objective:
Patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) are classified as very-high-risk individuals in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk stratification. The distribution pattern of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) syndromes in this patient population, as well as its association with blood lipid profiles and clinical prognosis, remains unclear. The present prospective cohort study aims to investigate these correlations, thereby providing insights to enrich the research fields.
Methods:
We enrolled consecutive patients with ASCVD who underwent PCI at the Integrated Cardiology Unit of China-Japan Friendship Hospital between September 1, 2020 and December 31, 2022. Demographics and clinical characteristics, signs and symptoms defining each TCM syndrome, and fasting venous blood samples were collected at baseline and follow up or upon major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs). We analyzed the correlation between TCM syndromes, blood lipid profiles, and MACEs, and developed a new joint prognostic model incorporating both TCM syndromes and blood lipids using logistic regression. The analyses were based on detailed baseline and one-year follow-up data.
Results:
A per-protocol analysis was performed on 586 patients with complete data ultimately. During the one-year follow-up, 174 patients (29.69%) experienced a MACE. We performed statistical analyses on comorbidities, medication, and biochemical indicators across groups defined by TCM syndrome differentiation. When comparing different TCM syndromes, no significant differences were found in age, body mass index (BMI), history of revascularization, comorbidities, family history of CVD, smoking or drinking, or statin intensity (P > 0.05). Patients with intertwined phlegm and blood stasis syndrome exhibited significantly higher levels of total cholesterol (TC, 5.27 ± 1.18 mmol/L, P < 0.001), triglyceride (TG, 1.96 ± 1.33 mmol/L, P = 0.008), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C, 3.35 ± 0.79 mmol/L, P < 0.001), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C, 1.24 ± 0.81 mmol/L, P < 0.001) compared with those with other TCM syndromes combined. A multivariable logistic regression model was constructed to predict MACEs. The model included TCM syndrome type [with intertwined phlegm and blood stasis as a predictor, adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.413, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.517 – 3.864, P = 0.501], age (adjusted OR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.955 – 1.001, P = 0.057), male gender (adjusted OR = 0.698, 95% CI: 0.416 – 1.170, P = 0.173), TC (adjusted OR = 1.004, 95% CI: 0.513 – 1.965, P = 0.990), and LDL-C (adjusted OR = 5.825, 95% CI: 2.214 – 15.326, P < 0.001). This model demonstrated good discriminatory ability for MACEs in post-PCI ASCVD patients [the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) = 0.865, 95% CI: 0.816 – 0.914].
Conclusion
The intertwined phlegm and blood stasis TCM syndrome is associated with a distinct atherogenic lipid profile characterized by elevated levels of TC and LDL-C. The prognostic model that incorporates this TCM syndrome type along with conventional lipid parameters (TC and LDL-C) shows good discriminatory ability for predicting MACEs in ASCVD patients after PCI, underscoring the potential clinical utility of integrating TCM syndrome differentiation into CVD risk assessment.
2.Comparative Study on Effect of Jingui Shenqiwan and Liuwei Dihuangwan on Reproductive Ability and Brain Function of Normal Mice
Hong SUN ; Fan LEI ; Chenggong LI ; Rui LUO ; Shixian HU ; Bin REN ; Juan HAO ; Yi DING ; Lijun DU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(2):1-14
ObjectiveTo explore the effects of Jingui Shenqiwan (JSW) and Liuwei Dihuangwan (LDW) on the reproductive ability and brain function of normal mice and compare the actions of the two medications. MethodsSeven groups of female and male mice were divided at a ratio of 2∶1. Except for the control group, the other six groups were as follows: a group of both males and females receiving JSW (3.0 g·kg-1), a group of both males and females receiving LDW (4.5 g·kg-1), a group of males receiving water and females receiving JSW, a group of males receiving water while females receiving LDW, a group of females receiving water while males receiving JSW, and a group of females receiving water while males receiving LDW. Each group was administered the drug for 14 days and then caged together at a 2∶1 (female∶male) ratio to detect the number of pregnant mice and calculate the pregnancy rate. Pregnant mice continued receiving the drug until they naturally gave birth, which was followed by the observation of newborn mice, calculation of their average number, and the measurement of the offspring's preference for sugar water and neonatal recognition index. At the end of the experiment, the weights of the thymus and spleen were measured to calculate the organ coefficients, and mRNA or protein expression was analyzed in the brain and testes or ovaries. A 1% sucrose solution was used to examine the euphoria of their brain reward systems, while novel object recognition test (NOR) was applied to assess their memory capabilities. mRNA expression was detected using real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (Real-time PCR) assay, and protein expression was analyzed with Western blot. ResultsCompared with the control group, oral administration of JSW to both male and female mice for 14 days significantly increased the pregnancy rate of female mice on day 2 after being caged together (P<0.05), while LDW showed a trend but no statistical significance. Additionally, compared with the control group, JSW could upregulate the gene expression of gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) in the thalamus, as well as reproductive stem cell factor (SCF) and tyrosine kinase receptor (c-Kit) in the testes and reproductive stem cell marker mouse vasa homologue (MVH) in the ovaries, upregulate the expression of proteins influencing neuronal functional activity, such as brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), in hippocampal neurons (P<0.05), and enhance sucrose preference in male mice (P<0.05). Compared with the control group, JSW significantly increased sucrose preference and novel object recognition index in offspring mice (P<0.05), which was related to the upregulation of hippocampal dopamine D1 receptor (D1R) and N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (Nmdar) gene expression. Compared with the control group, both JSW and LDW could upregulate the protein expression of glucocorticoid receptor (GR), BDNF, and tyrosine kinase receptor B (TrkB) in the hippocampus of offspring mice (P<0.05). ConclusionJSW significantly enhances the reproductive ability of normal mice, which is not only related to the release of gonadotropin but also associated with its regulation of brain function. Additionally, JSW has a certain regulatory effect on the brain function of the offspring mice.
3.Influencing factors on the prevalence of depressive symptoms among middle school students in Yunnan Province in 2023
Xiaodong MU ; Hong LIU ; Fan YANG ; Tunan LI ; Junyu NI ; Yunjuan YANG
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2026;38(2):108-115
ObjectiveTo investigate the epidemiological characteristics and influencing factors of depressive symptoms among middle school (junior, senior, and vocational high school) students in Yunnan Province, China, and to inform evidence-based intervention strategies for adolescent mental health. MethodsA cross-sectional survey was conducted between October and November 2023 using stratified random cluster sampling. Students from eight counties (districts) across four prefectures (cities) in Yunnan Province were included. Depressive symptoms were assessed using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to examine factors associated with depressive symptoms, with stratified analyses conducted by gender, educational stage, and ethnicity. ResultsA total of 4 672 questionnaires were distributed, with 4 670 valid questionnaires retrieved, yielding a valid response rate of 99.96%. The surveyed participants were predominantly female students (50.81%), junior high school students (49.13%), ethnic minorities (52.78%), and urban residents (79.29%). The mean CES-D score for middle school students in Yunnan Province was (15.31±10.83). Female students had a significantly higher mean score (16.63±11.41) than male students (13.95±10.02) (P<0.001). Senior high school students had a significantly higher mean score (16.61±10.61) compared to both junior high school students (14.74±11.45) and vocational high school students (13.10±7.71) (all pairwise comparisons P<0.001). The prevalence of depressive symptoms among middle school students in Yunnan Province was 28.18%. The prevalence was significantly higher in females (34.09%) than in males (22.07%). By school type, the detection rate was highest among senior high school students (33.39%), followed by junior high school students (26.29%) and vocational high school students (17.27%) (P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that female gender (OR=2.16, 95%CI: 1.86‒2.50), being in junior high school (OR=2.43, 95%CI: 1.84‒3.20) or senior high school (OR=2.27, 95%CI: 1.73‒2.98), not living with parents (OR=1.24, 95%CI: 1.07‒1.44), irregular breakfast consumption (OR=1.52, 95%CI: 1.33‒1.75), lack of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) (OR=1.69, 95%CI: 1.37‒2.09), sleep duration ≤5 h per night (OR=2.52, 95%CI: 2.02‒3.14) or 6‒7 h per night (OR=1.47, 95%CI: 1.25‒1.73), smoking (OR=1.86, 95%CI: 1.56‒2.23), and alcohol consumption (OR=1.81, 95%CI: 1.54‒2.13) were positively associated with depressive symptoms. In contrast, screen time ≤1 h (OR=0.71, 95%CI: 0.59‒0.86) was negatively associated with depressive symptoms. Stratified analyses showed that female students not living with parents (OR=1.29, 95%CI: 1.06‒1.58), senior high school students (OR=1.51, 95%CI: 1.21‒1.88), and Han Chinese students (OR=1.37, 95%CI: 1.11‒1.69) were more likely to experience depressive symptoms. Han Chinese students who smoked were also more likely to have depressive symptoms (OR=1.72, 95%CI: 1.34‒2.21). In contrast, male students with screen time ≤1 h (OR=0.71, 95%CI: 0.53‒0.95) and ethnic minority students (OR=0.74, 95%CI: 0.58‒0.95) were less likely to experience depressive symptoms. Regardless of gender, irregular breakfast consumption, lack of MVPA, sleep duration less than 8 h per night, smoking, and alcohol consumption were all positively associated with depressive symptoms (P<0.05). Among both junior and senior high school students, irregular breakfast consumption, lack of MVPA, smoking, and alcohol consumption were positively associated with depressive symptoms (all P<0.05), while screen time ≤1 h was negatively associated with depressive symptoms (all P<0.05). For junior high school students, engaging in 1‒2 days of MVPA per week, screen time more than 2 h per day, and sleep duration 6‒7 h per night were all positively associated with depressive symptoms (all P<0.05). Among junior high, senior high, and vocational high school students, sleep duration ≤5 h per night was positively associated with depressive symptoms (P<0.05). For both Han Chinese and ethnic minority students, irregular breakfast consumption, lack of MVPA, sleep duration less than 8 h per night, and alcohol consumption were all positively associated with depressive symptoms (all P<0.05). ConclusionThe prevalence of depressive symptoms among middle school students in Yunnan Province is comparable to that in central China and higher than that in northern regions. Prevention and control efforts should prioritize female students and those in junior and senior high school stages. Universal improvements in lifestyle behaviors among middle school students, such as regular breakfast consumption, MVPA, sufficient sleep (≥8 h), and abstinence from smoking and alcohol. Particular attention should be given to limiting excessive screen time among junior high school students and addressing the mental health needs of females not living with their parents, senior high school students, and Han Chinese students.
4.Prognostic significance of TRIM28 elevation in non-M3 acute myeloid leukemia
Siqi GONG ; Cong LI ; Mengmeng FAN ; Huiping WANG ; Wanqiu ZHANG ; Xue LIANG ; Qianshan TAO ; Qiang HONG ; Zhimin ZHAI
Acta Universitatis Medicinalis Anhui 2026;61(2):301-308
ObjectiveTo clarify the expression of TRIM28 in non-M3 acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and its correlation with clinical indicators and prognosis, and to further explore the effect of TRIM28 expression levels on the proliferation and apoptosis of AML cells using small interfering RNA. MethodsThe GSE34577 dataset was analyzed using R software to compare TRIM28 expression between healthy controls and non-M3 acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients. Clinical samples from non-M3 AML patients were collected, with TRIM28 expression levels measured using real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR). The analysis focused on correlations between TRIM28 expression and various clinical indicators, treatment efficacy, and patient prognosis. Furthermore, small interfering RNA (siRNA) technology was employed to downregulate TRIM28 expression in human primary AML cells (HL60 cell line). The effects on cell proliferation and apoptosis were then assessed through CCK-8 assays and flow cytometry, respectively. ResultsThe results showed that TRIM28 was up-regulated in non-M3 AML of both online database GSE34577 and clinical samples (P<0.000 1), TRIM28 expression of new diagnosis group and relapsed refractory group was higher than iron deficiency anemia group (P<0.01), and there was no significance between different French-American-British classification systems subtype. TRIM28 expression was higher in non-M3 AML patients with a poor genetic prognosis stratified as moderate than in the good prognosis group, and TRIM28 expression was associated with NPM1 combined with the FLT3-ITD mutation, positively correlated with age, bone marrow blast, peripheral blood blast and white blood cell, negatively correlated with hemoglobin. In addition, interference TRIM28 greatly inhibited cell proliferation and promoted cell apoptosis. ConclusionThis study reveals that TRIM28 is highly expressed in non-M3 AML and associated with prognosis, and plays a key role in the proliferation and apoptosis of AML cells, suggesting that TRIM28 may serve as a novel therapeutic target for non-M3 AML.
5.Effect of Shenge Bushen Capsules and Its Polysaccharides and Flavonoids on Precocious Puberty in Young Mice
Hong SUN ; Fan LEI ; Chenggong LI ; Shixian HU ; Weihua WANG ; Bin REN ; Juan HAO ; Rui LUO ; Lijun DU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(1):95-103
ObjectiveTo explore the effect of Shenge Bushen Capsules (SBC) on sexual development in normal 3-week-old mice. MethodsThe experiment consisted of two parts. In the first part, mice were divided into four groups: The control group and the low, medium, and high-dose SBC groups (234.7, 469.4, 938.7 mg·kg-1, respectively). In the second part, mice were divided into four groups: Control group, Pseudostellariae Radix polysaccharide (PRP) group, total flavonoids group, and SBC group, all receiving a dose of 469.4 mg·kg-1. After 7 days of administration, the vaginal opening of female mice and the descent of testes and scrotum in male mice, as well as the ovarian and testicular organ indices, were observed. After 4 weeks of administration, female and male mice were housed together for 2 days, and the pregnancy rate of females was monitored. After delivery, the pregnant female mice continued receiving the treatment for 4 weeks, and the sexual development of their offspring, including vaginal opening, testicular descent, and organ indices of ovaries and testes, was observed. Serum sex hormones were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), and the expression of gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) and growth hormone (GH) proteins in the hypothalamus was assessed by Western blot. ResultsCompared with the control group, there was no significant effect on the vaginal opening of female mice or the descent of testes in male mice after 7 days of SBC administration. After 4 weeks of administration, the pregnancy rate in the low-dose group was significantly reduced (P<0.05), but no significant effects were observed in the other groups. The three doses of SBC did not significantly affect the ovarian or testicular organ indices, and there was no significant upregulation in the expression of GnRH or GH in the hypothalamus. The primary component of SBC, Pseudostellariae Radix polysaccharide, significantly reduced the vaginal opening in female mice after 7 days of administration (P<0.05). After 4 weeks, the serum estradiol levels of non-pregnant female mice were decreased (P<0.05), but there was no significant effect on the expression of GnRH or GH proteins in the hypothalamus of either male or female mice. Additionally, there were no significant effects on precocious puberty indicators, such as vaginal opening and testicular descent, in the offspring mice. ConclusionSBC does not significantly promote precocious puberty in young mice, and it does not have any noticeable effects on the pregnancy rate of adult mice or the sexual development of their offspring.
6.Changes and Trends in the microbiological-related standards in the Chinese Pharmacopoeia 2025 Edition
FAN Yiling ; ZHU Ran ; YANG Yan ; JIANG Bo ; SONG Minghui ; WANG Jing ; LI Qiongqiong ; LI Gaomin ; WANG Shujuan ; SHAO Hong ; MA Shihong ; CAO Xiaoyun ; HU Changqin ; MA Shuangcheng, ; YANG Meicheng
Drug Standards of China 2025;26(1):093-098
Objective: To systematically analyze the revisions content and technological development trends of microbiological standards in the Chinese Pharmacopoeia (ChP) 2025 Edition, and explore its novel requirements in risk-based pharmaceutical product lifecycle management.
Methods: A comprehensive review was conducted on 26 microbiological-related standards to summarize the revision directions and scientific implications from perspectives including the revision overview, international harmonization of microbiological standards, risk-based quality management system, and novel tools and methods with Chinese characteristics.
Results: The ChP 2025 edition demonstrates three prominent features in microbiological-related standards: enhanced international harmonization, introduced emerging molecular biological technologies, and established a risk-based microbiological quality control system.
Conclusion: The new edition of the Pharmacopoeia has systematically constructed a microbiological standard system, which significantly improves the scientificity, standardization and applicability of the standards, providing a crucial support for advancing the microbiological quality control in pharmaceutical industries of China.
7.Cyclometalated iridium(III) complex based on isoquinoline alkaloid synergistically elicits the ICD response and IDO inhibition via autophagy-dependent ferroptosis.
Yuan LU ; Shan-Shan WANG ; Meng-Ya LI ; Rong LIU ; Meng-Fan ZHU ; Liang-Mei YANG ; Feng-Yang WANG ; Ke-Bin HUANG ; Hong LIANG
Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica B 2025;15(1):424-437
The development of anticancer drugs to treat triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is an ongoing challenge. Immunogenic cell death (ICD) has garnered considerable interest worldwide as a promising synergistic modality for cancer chemoimmunotherapy. However, only few drugs or treatment modalities can trigger an ICD response and none of them exert a considerable clinical effect against TNBC. Therefore, new agents with potentially effective chemoimmunotherapeutic response are required. In this study, five new cyclometalated Ir(III) complexes containing isoquinoline alkaloid CˆN ligands were designed and synthesized. Among them, Ir-1 exhibited the highest in vitro cytotoxicity. Mechanistically, Ir-1 could trigger autophagy-dependent ferroptosis and a subsequent ferroptosis-dependent ICD response as well as indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase (IDO) inhibition via reactive oxygen species (ROS)-mediated endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress in MDA-MB-231 cells. When immunocompetent BALB/c mice were vaccinated with Ir-1-treated dying TNBC cells, antitumor CD8+ T-cell response and Foxp3+ T-cell depletion were induced, resulting in long-lasting antitumor immunity in TNBC cells. Moreover, combination therapy with Ir-1 and anti-PD1 could substantially augment in vivo therapeutic effects. Based on these results, Ir-1 is a promising candidate for chemoimmunotherapy against TNBC and its effects are mediated synergistically via ICD induction and IDO blockage.
8.Intelligent handheld ultrasound improving the ability of non-expert general practitioners in carotid examinations for community populations: a prospective and parallel controlled trial
Pei SUN ; Hong HAN ; Yi-Kang SUN ; Xi WANG ; Xiao-Chuan LIU ; Bo-Yang ZHOU ; Li-Fan WANG ; Ya-Qin ZHANG ; Zhi-Gang PAN ; Bei-Jian HUANG ; Hui-Xiong XU ; Chong-Ke ZHAO
Ultrasonography 2025;44(2):112-123
Purpose:
The aim of this study was to investigate the feasibility of an intelligent handheld ultrasound (US) device for assisting non-expert general practitioners (GPs) in detecting carotid plaques (CPs) in community populations.
Methods:
This prospective parallel controlled trial recruited 111 consecutive community residents. All of them underwent examinations by non-expert GPs and specialist doctors using handheld US devices (setting A, setting B, and setting C). The results of setting C with specialist doctors were considered the gold standard. Carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) and the features of CPs were measured and recorded. The diagnostic performance of GPs in distinguishing CPs was evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic curve. Inter-observer agreement was compared using the intragroup correlation coefficient (ICC). Questionnaires were completed to evaluate clinical benefits.
Results:
Among the 111 community residents, 80, 96, and 112 CPs were detected in settings A, B, and C, respectively. Setting B exhibited better diagnostic performance than setting A for detecting CPs (area under the curve, 0.856 vs. 0.749; P<0.01). Setting B had better consistency with setting C than setting A in CIMT measurement and the assessment of CPs (ICC, 0.731 to 0.923). Moreover, measurements in setting B required less time than the other two settings (44.59 seconds vs. 108.87 seconds vs. 126.13 seconds, both P<0.01).
Conclusion
Using an intelligent handheld US device, GPs can perform CP screening and achieve a diagnostic capability comparable to that of specialist doctors.
9.Intelligent handheld ultrasound improving the ability of non-expert general practitioners in carotid examinations for community populations: a prospective and parallel controlled trial
Pei SUN ; Hong HAN ; Yi-Kang SUN ; Xi WANG ; Xiao-Chuan LIU ; Bo-Yang ZHOU ; Li-Fan WANG ; Ya-Qin ZHANG ; Zhi-Gang PAN ; Bei-Jian HUANG ; Hui-Xiong XU ; Chong-Ke ZHAO
Ultrasonography 2025;44(2):112-123
Purpose:
The aim of this study was to investigate the feasibility of an intelligent handheld ultrasound (US) device for assisting non-expert general practitioners (GPs) in detecting carotid plaques (CPs) in community populations.
Methods:
This prospective parallel controlled trial recruited 111 consecutive community residents. All of them underwent examinations by non-expert GPs and specialist doctors using handheld US devices (setting A, setting B, and setting C). The results of setting C with specialist doctors were considered the gold standard. Carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) and the features of CPs were measured and recorded. The diagnostic performance of GPs in distinguishing CPs was evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic curve. Inter-observer agreement was compared using the intragroup correlation coefficient (ICC). Questionnaires were completed to evaluate clinical benefits.
Results:
Among the 111 community residents, 80, 96, and 112 CPs were detected in settings A, B, and C, respectively. Setting B exhibited better diagnostic performance than setting A for detecting CPs (area under the curve, 0.856 vs. 0.749; P<0.01). Setting B had better consistency with setting C than setting A in CIMT measurement and the assessment of CPs (ICC, 0.731 to 0.923). Moreover, measurements in setting B required less time than the other two settings (44.59 seconds vs. 108.87 seconds vs. 126.13 seconds, both P<0.01).
Conclusion
Using an intelligent handheld US device, GPs can perform CP screening and achieve a diagnostic capability comparable to that of specialist doctors.
10.Prediction of suitable habitats of Phlebotomus chinensis in Gansu Province based on the Biomod2 ensemble model
Dawei YU ; Yandong HOU ; Aiwei HE ; Yu FENG ; Guobing YANG ; Chengming YANG ; Hong LIANG ; Hailiang ZHANG ; Fan LI
Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control 2025;37(3):276-283
Objective To investigate the suitable habitats of Phlebotomus chinensis in Gansu Province, so as provide insights into effective management of mountain-type zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (MT-ZVL). Methods The geographical coordinates of locations where MT-ZVL cases were reported were retrieved in Gansu Province from 2015 to 2023, and data pertaining to 26 environmental variables were captured, including 19 climatic variables (annual mean temperature, mean diurnal range, isothermality, temperature seasonality, maximum temperature of the warmest month, minimum temperature of the coldest month, temperature annual range, mean temperature of the wettest quarter, mean temperature of the driest quarter, mean temperature of the warmest quarter, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, annual precipitation, precipitation of the wettest month, precipitation of the driest month, precipitation seasonality, precipitation of the wettest quarter, precipitation of the driest quarter, precipitation of the warmest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter), five geographical variables (elevation, annual normalized difference vegetation index, vegetation type, landform type and land use type), and two population and economic variables (population distribution and gross domestic product). Twelve species distribution models were built using the biomod2 package in R project, including surface range envelope (SRE) model, generalized linear model (GLM), generalized additive model (GAM), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) model, generalized boosted model (GBM), classification tree analysis (CTA) model, flexible discriminant analysis (FDA) model, maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, optimized maximum entropy (MAXNET) model, artificial neural network (ANN) model, random forest (RF) model, and extreme gradient boosting (XGBOOST) model. The performance of 12 models was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), true skill statistics (TSS), and Kappa coefficient, and single models with high performance was selected to build the optimal ensemble models. Factors affecting the survival of Ph. chinensis were identified based on climatic, geographical, population and economic variables. In addition, the suitable distribution areas of Ph. chinensis were predicted in Gansu Province under shared socioeconomic pathway 126 (SSP126), SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios based on climatic data during the period from 1991 to 2020, from 2041 to 2060 (2050s), and from 2081 to 2100 (2090s) . Results A total of 11 species distribution models were successfully built for prediction of potential distribution areas of Ph. chinensis in Gansu Province, and the RF model had the highest predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.998). The ensemble model built based on the RF model, XGBOOST model, GLM, and MARS model had an increased predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.999) relative to single models. Among the 26 environmental factors, precipitation of the wettest quarter (12.00%), maximum temperature of the warmest month (11.58%), and annual normalized difference vegetation index (11.29%) had the greatest contributions to suitable habitats distribution of Ph. sinensis. Under the climatic conditions from 1991 to 2020, the potential suitable habitat area for Ph. chinensis in Gansu Province was approximately 5.80 × 104 km2, of which the highly suitable area was 1.42 × 104 km2, and primarily concentrated in the southernmost region of Gansu Province. By the 2050s, the unsuitable and lowly suitable areas for Ph. chinensis in Gansu Province had decreased by varying degrees compared to that of 1991 to 2020 period, while the moderately and highly suitable areas exhibited expansion and migration. By the 2090s, under the SSP126 scenario, the suitable habitat area for Ph. chinensis increased significantly, and under the SSP585 scenario, the highly suitable areas transformed into extremely suitable areas, also showing substantial growth. Future global warming is conducive to the survival and reproduction of Ph. chinensis. From the 2050s to the 2090s, the highly suitable areas for Ph. chinensis in Gansu Province will be projected to expand northward. Under the SSP126 scenario, the suitable habitat area for Ph. chinensis in Gansu Province is expected to increase by 194.75% and 204.79% in the 2050s and 2090s, respectively, compared to that of the 1991 to 2020 period. Under the SSP370 scenario, the moderately and highly suitable areas will be projected to increase by 164.40% and 209.03% in the 2050s and 2090s, respectively, while under the SSP585 scenario, they are expected to increase by 195.98% and 211.66%, respectively. Conclusions The distribution of potential suitable habitats of Ph. sinensis gradually shifts with climatic changes. Intensified surveillance and management of Ph. sinensis is recommended in central and eastern parts of Gansu Province to support early warning of MT-ZVL.

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