1.Progress in the study of anti-inflammatory active components with anti-inflammatory effects and mechanisms in Caragana Fabr.
Yu-mei MA ; Ju-yuan LUO ; Tao CHEN ; Hong-mei LI ; Cheng SHEN ; Shuo WANG ; Zhi-bo SONG ; Yu-lin LI
Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica 2025;60(1):58-71
The plants of the genus
2.Association of Body Mass Index with All-Cause Mortality and Cause-Specific Mortality in Rural China: 10-Year Follow-up of a Population-Based Multicenter Prospective Study.
Juan Juan HUANG ; Yuan Zhi DI ; Ling Yu SHEN ; Jian Guo LIANG ; Jiang DU ; Xue Fang CAO ; Wei Tao DUAN ; Ai Wei HE ; Jun LIANG ; Li Mei ZHU ; Zi Sen LIU ; Fang LIU ; Shu Min YANG ; Zu Hui XU ; Cheng CHEN ; Bin ZHANG ; Jiao Xia YAN ; Yan Chun LIANG ; Rong LIU ; Tao ZHU ; Hong Zhi LI ; Fei SHEN ; Bo Xuan FENG ; Yi Jun HE ; Zi Han LI ; Ya Qi ZHAO ; Tong Lei GUO ; Li Qiong BAI ; Wei LU ; Qi JIN ; Lei GAO ; He Nan XIN
Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2025;38(10):1179-1193
OBJECTIVE:
This study aimed to explore the association between body mass index (BMI) and mortality based on the 10-year population-based multicenter prospective study.
METHODS:
A general population-based multicenter prospective study was conducted at four sites in rural China between 2013 and 2023. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models and restricted cubic spline analyses were used to assess the association between BMI and mortality. Stratified analyses were performed based on the individual characteristics of the participants.
RESULTS:
Overall, 19,107 participants with a sum of 163,095 person-years were included and 1,910 participants died. The underweight (< 18.5 kg/m 2) presented an increase in all-cause mortality (adjusted hazards ratio [ aHR] = 2.00, 95% confidence interval [ CI]: 1.66-2.41), while overweight (≥ 24.0 to < 28.0 kg/m 2) and obesity (≥ 28.0 kg/m 2) presented a decrease with an aHR of 0.61 (95% CI: 0.52-0.73) and 0.51 (95% CI: 0.37-0.70), respectively. Overweight ( aHR = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.67-0.86) and mild obesity ( aHR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.59-0.87) had a positive impact on mortality in people older than 60 years. All-cause mortality decreased rapidly until reaching a BMI of 25.7 kg/m 2 ( aHR = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.92-0.98) and increased slightly above that value, indicating a U-shaped association. The beneficial impact of being overweight on mortality was robust in most subgroups and sensitivity analyses.
CONCLUSION
This study provides additional evidence that overweight and mild obesity may be inversely related to the risk of death in individuals older than 60 years. Therefore, it is essential to consider age differences when formulating health and weight management strategies.
Humans
;
Body Mass Index
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Male
;
Female
;
Middle Aged
;
Prospective Studies
;
Rural Population/statistics & numerical data*
;
Aged
;
Follow-Up Studies
;
Adult
;
Mortality
;
Cause of Death
;
Obesity/mortality*
;
Overweight/mortality*
3.Disease characteristics and costs of pediatric Mycoplasma Pneumoniae pneumonia hospitalization:a retrospective study at municipal hospitals from 2019 to 2023 in Shanghai
Ying-Wen WANG ; Feng WANG ; Li-Bo WANG ; Ai-Zhen LU ; Yi WANG ; Yong-Hao GUI ; Quan LU ; Yong YIN ; Jian-Hua ZHANG ; Ying-Zi YE ; Hong XU ; Bing SHEN ; Dan-Ping GU ; Xiao-Yan DONG ; Jia-Yu WANG ; Wen HE ; Xiao-Bo ZHANG
Fudan University Journal of Medical Sciences 2024;51(4):515-521
Objective To investigate disease characteristics and hospitalization costs of children with Mycoplasma Pneumoniae pneumonia(MPP)admitted to Shanghai municipal medical hospitals from 2019 to 2023.Methods Depending on the Shanghai Municipal Hospital Pediatric Alliance,we retrospectively investigated community acquired MPP pediatric patients hospitalized in 22 municipal hospitals with pediatric qualifications(including 4 children's hospitals)in Shanghai from Jan 2019 to Dec 2023.We collected the patients'diagnosis codes,gender,age,length of hospital stay,hospitalization costs,and whether they progressed to severe Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia(SMPP).Results From 2019 to 2023,a total of 29 045 hospitalized children with MPP were treated,with 6 035 cases(20.8%)identified as SMPP in the 22 hospitals.Trend analysis revealed a rising trend with years in the proportion of SMPP patients(χ2trend=365.498,P<0.001).Among the 4 children's hospitals,there were 18 710 cases with MPP,including 4 078 cases(21.8%)of SMPP.The proportion of SMPP patients also showed an increasing trend with years(χ2trend=14.548,P<0.001),and the proportion in 2023(23.0%)was higher than that in previous years with statistical significance.There were statistical differences in the seasonal distribution of MPP cases between different years,with higher proportions in summer and autumn overall.The age distribution of hospitalized MPP children varied among different years,with school-age children accounting for the majority(56.8%)in 2023.There was no difference in the distribution of severe cases between different genders,but there were differences in the proportion of severe cases among different age groups in different years,with a gradual increase in severe cases among children aged 1 to 3 years(χ2trend=191.567,P<0.001).The average length of hospital stay for MPP during the epidemic was higher than that during non-epidemic periods,and there were statistically significant differences in the average length of hospital stay between different years(P<0.001).The individual hospitalization costs during the epidemic were higher than in other years,and there were statistically significant differences in individual hospitalization costs between different years(P<0.001).The total hospitalization costs were still higher in 2019 and 2023.The individual hospitalization costs for SMPP were higher than for non-SMPP cases.Conclusion MPP outbreaks occurred in Shanghai in 2019 and 2023,with the higher proportions in summer and autumn overall.Compared to previous years,the number of hospitalized MPP children in Shanghai was higher in 2023,with a higher proportion of SMPP cases,especially among children under 3 years old.The individual per capita hospitalization expenses for SMPP cases were higher than for non-SMPP cases.
4.A multicenter study of neonatal stroke in Shenzhen,China
Li-Xiu SHI ; Jin-Xing FENG ; Yan-Fang WEI ; Xin-Ru LU ; Yu-Xi ZHANG ; Lin-Ying YANG ; Sheng-Nan HE ; Pei-Juan CHEN ; Jing HAN ; Cheng CHEN ; Hui-Ying TU ; Zhang-Bin YU ; Jin-Jie HUANG ; Shu-Juan ZENG ; Wan-Ling CHEN ; Ying LIU ; Yan-Ping GUO ; Jiao-Yu MAO ; Xiao-Dong LI ; Qian-Shen ZHANG ; Zhi-Li XIE ; Mei-Ying HUANG ; Kun-Shan YAN ; Er-Ya YING ; Jun CHEN ; Yan-Rong WANG ; Ya-Ping LIU ; Bo SONG ; Hua-Yan LIU ; Xiao-Dong XIAO ; Hong TANG ; Yu-Na WANG ; Yin-Sha CAI ; Qi LONG ; Han-Qiang XU ; Hui-Zhan WANG ; Qian SUN ; Fang HAN ; Rui-Biao ZHANG ; Chuan-Zhong YANG ; Lei DOU ; Hui-Ju SHI ; Rui WANG ; Ping JIANG ; Shenzhen Neonatal Data Network
Chinese Journal of Contemporary Pediatrics 2024;26(5):450-455
Objective To investigate the incidence rate,clinical characteristics,and prognosis of neonatal stroke in Shenzhen,China.Methods Led by Shenzhen Children's Hospital,the Shenzhen Neonatal Data Collaboration Network organized 21 institutions to collect 36 cases of neonatal stroke from January 2020 to December 2022.The incidence,clinical characteristics,treatment,and prognosis of neonatal stroke in Shenzhen were analyzed.Results The incidence rate of neonatal stroke in 21 hospitals from 2020 to 2022 was 1/15 137,1/6 060,and 1/7 704,respectively.Ischemic stroke accounted for 75%(27/36);boys accounted for 64%(23/36).Among the 36 neonates,31(86%)had disease onset within 3 days after birth,and 19(53%)had convulsion as the initial presentation.Cerebral MRI showed that 22 neonates(61%)had left cerebral infarction and 13(36%)had basal ganglia infarction.Magnetic resonance angiography was performed for 12 neonates,among whom 9(75%)had involvement of the middle cerebral artery.Electroencephalography was performed for 29 neonates,with sharp waves in 21 neonates(72%)and seizures in 10 neonates(34%).Symptomatic/supportive treatment varied across different hospitals.Neonatal Behavioral Neurological Assessment was performed for 12 neonates(33%,12/36),with a mean score of(32±4)points.The prognosis of 27 neonates was followed up to around 12 months of age,with 44%(12/27)of the neonates having a good prognosis.Conclusions Ischemic stroke is the main type of neonatal stroke,often with convulsions as the initial presentation,involvement of the middle cerebral artery,sharp waves on electroencephalography,and a relatively low neurodevelopment score.Symptomatic/supportive treatment is the main treatment method,and some neonates tend to have a poor prognosis.
5.CHEN Bo-Lai's Experience in Treating Low Back Pain of Kidney Deficiency and Phlegm Obstruction Type Based on the Theory of Kidney Being the Root of Phlegm
Wen-Xi SUN ; Qi PENG ; Yu-Fu HUANG ; Jiang-Nan YE ; Hong-Mei LI ; Yong-Peng LIN ; Hong-Shen WANG ; Bo-Lai CHEN
Journal of Guangzhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2024;41(6):1616-1620
The kidney governs water and is the congenital foundation.The kidney plays an important role in the transportation and distribution of body fluid,has the interior-exterior relationship with the waterffu-organ bladder,and has the meridian connection with the stomach,the reservoir of water and food,through the thoroughfare vessel.Therefore,the kidney plays a key role in the formation of phlegm.Professor CHEN Bo-Lai believes that low back pain of kidney deficiency and phlegm obstruction type is characterized by deficiency in the origin and excess in the superficiality.Excess in the superficiality is manifested as phlegm obstruction,and deficiency in the origin is manifested as kidney deficiency.Clinically,the patients with low back pain of kidney deficiency and phlegm obstruction type mainly have the manifestations of lumbosacral dull pain and fixed pain,stiffness in the waist,limb numbness or hemiplegia,accompanied by soreness and weakness of waist and knees,and preference for pressing and kneading.The treatment of low back pain of kidney deficiency and phlegm obstruction type can be based on theory of kidney being the root of phlegm,follows the therapy of tonifying kidney and eliminating phlegm,and can be performed by the modified use of basic prescription of Litan Decoction(mainly composed of Euryales Semen,Pinelliae Rhizoma,Sesami Semen Nigrum,Platycladi Semen,Paeoniae Radix Alba,Citri Reticulatae Pericarpium and Poria)together with the assistance of herbs for strengthening spleen and dispersing lung based on the differentiation of the complicated symptoms.The thoughts of Professor CHEN Bo-Lai for the differentiation and treatment of low back pain of kidney deficiency and phlegm obstruction type can be used as a reference for the treatment of low back pain with Chinese medicine.
6.Analysis of colorectal cancer screening results among residents in Baoshan District
SHEN Fangli ; MAO Jianying ; MENG Yang ; ZHU Liming ; BO Hong ; TANG Dezhen ; LIU Shiyou
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2024;36(10):869-872,877
Objective:
To analyze the results of colorectal cancer screening among residents in Baoshan District, Shanghai Municipality from 2013 to 2021, so as to provide the basis for promoting colorectal cancer screening and prevention.
Methods:
Permanent residents aged 50 to 74 years in Baoshan District from 2013 to 2021 were selected as the screening population. The initial screening was conducted using a risk assessment form and fecal occult blood test. Positive results on either the risk assessment form or fecal occult blood test were considered positive for the initial screening. Participants with positive initial screening results were invited to undergo colonoscopy. The positive rate of the initial screening, colonoscopy compliance rate, and colonoscopy results were analyzed.
Results:
A total of 264 907 individuals underwent the initial colorectal cancer screening in Baoshan District from 2013 to 2021, with 65 333 individuals (24.66%) testing positive. Among them, the positive rate of the risk assessment form was 12.16%, and the positive rate of fecal occult blood test was 14.64%. A total of 14 473 individuals completed colonoscopy, with a compliance rate of 22.15%. A total of 1 284 precancerous lesions were detected, with a detection rate of 8.87%, and 386 cases of colorectal cancer were identified, with a detection rate of 2.67%. The positive rate of the initial screening, colonoscopy compliance rate, precancerous lesion detection rate, and colorectal cancer detection rate were higher in males than in females (25.55% vs. 24.06%, 23.12% vs. 21.45%, 11.60% vs. 6.74%, 3.62% vs. 1.93%, all P<0.05). With increasing age, the positive rate of the initial screening increased, the colonoscopy compliance rate decreased, the precancerous lesion detection rate and colorectal cancer detection rate increased (all P<0.05). From 2013 to 2021, the positive rate of the initial screening among residents showed a downward trend, while the colonoscopy compliance rate showed an upward trend (both P<0.05).
Conclusions
The detection rate of precancerous lesions in colorectal cancer was 8.87%, and the detection rate of colorectal cancer was 2.67% in Baoshan District from 2013 to 2021. Male and older individuals were the key populations for screening, and the colonoscopy compliance among residents needs to be improved.
7.Quality monitoring indicator system in blood banks of Shandong: applied in blood donation services, component preparation and blood supply process
Yuqing WU ; Hong ZHOU ; Zhijie ZHANG ; Zhiquan RONG ; Xuemei LI ; Zhe SONG ; Shuhong ZHAO ; Zhongsi YANG ; Qun LIU ; Lin ZHU ; Xiaojuan FAN ; Shuli SUN ; Wei ZHANG ; Jinyu HAN ; Haiyan HUANG ; Guangcai LIU ; Ping CHEN ; Xianwu AN ; Hui ZHANG ; Junxia REN ; Xuejing LI ; Chenxi YANG ; Bo ZHOU ; Hui YE ; Mingming QIAO ; Hua SHEN ; Dunzhu GONGJUE ; Yunlong ZHUANG
Chinese Journal of Blood Transfusion 2024;37(3):275-282
【Objective】 To establish an effective quality indicator monitoring system, scientifically and objectively evaluate the quality management level of blood banks, and achieve continuous improvement of quality management in blood bank. 【Methods】 A quality monitoring indicator system that covers the whole process of blood collection and supply was established, the questionnaire of Quality Monitoring Indicators for Blood Collection and Supply Process with clear definition of indicators and calculation formulas was distributed to 17 blood banks in Shandong. Statistical analysis of 21 quality monitoring indicators in terms of blood donation service (10 indicators), blood component preparation (7 indicators ), and blood supply (4 indicators) from each blood bank from January to December 2022 were conducted using SPSS25.0 software The differences in quality monitoring indicators of blood banks of different scales were analyzed. 【Results】 The average values of quality monitoring indicators for blood donation service process of 17 blood banks were as follows: 44.66% (2 233/5 000) of regular donors proportion, 0.22% (11/50) of adverse reactions incidence, 0.46% (23/5 000) of non-standard whole blood collection rate, 0.052% (13/25 000) of missed HBsAg screening rate, 99.42% (4 971/5 000) of first, puncture successful rate, 86.49% (173/200) of double platelet collection rate, 66.50% (133/200) of 400 mL whole blood collection rate, 99.25% (397/400) of donor satisfaction rate, 82.68% (2 067/2 500) of use rate of whole blood collection bags with bypass system with sample tube, and 1 case of occupational exposure in blood collection.There was a strong positive correlation between the proportion of regular blood donors and the collection rate of 400 mL whole blood (P<0.05). The platelet collection rate, incidence of adverse reactions to blood donation, and non-standard whole blood collection rate in large blood banks were significantly lower than those in medium and small blood banks (P<0.05). The average quality monitoring indicators for blood component preparation process of 17 blood banks were as follows: the leakage rate of blood component preparation bags was 0.03% (3/10 000), the discarding rate of lipemic blood was 3.05% (61/2 000), the discarding rate of hemolysis blood was 0.13%(13/10 000). 0.06 case had labeling errors, 8 bags had blood catheter leaks, 2.76 bags had blood puncture/connection leaks, and 0.59 cases had non-conforming consumables. The discarding rate of hemolysis blood of large blood banks was significantly lower than that of medium and small blood banks (P<0.05), and the discarding rate of lipemic blood of large and medium blood banks was significantly lower than that of small blood banks (P<0.05). The average values of quality monitoring indicators for blood supply process of 17 blood banks were as follows: the discarding rate of expired blood was 0.023% (23/100 000), the leakage rate during storage and distribution was of 0.009%(9/100 000), the discarding rate of returned blood was 0.106% (53/50 000), the service satisfaction of hospitals was 99.16% (2 479/2 500). The leakage rate of blood components during storage and distribution was statistically different with that of blood component preparation bags between different blood banks (P<0.05). There were statistically significant differences in the proportion of regular blood donors, incidence of adverse reactions, non-standard whole blood collection rate, 400 mL whole blood collection rate, double platelet collection rate, the blood bag leakage rate during preparation process, the blood components leakage rate during storage and distribution as well as the discarding rate of lipemic blood, hemolysis blood, expired blood and returned blood among large, medium and small blood banks (all P<0.05). 【Conclusion】 The establishment of a quality monitoring indicator system for blood donation services, blood component preparation and blood supply processes in Shandong has good applicability, feasibility and effectiveness. It can objectively evaluate the quality management level, facilitate the continuous improvement of the quality management system, promote the homogenization of blood management in the province and lay the foundation for future comprehensive evaluation of blood banks.
8.Comparison of anterior lateral ligament reconstruction and anterior lateral complex repair in the treatment of anterior cruciate ligament combined with anterior lateral ligament injury with high-grade pivot shift.
Xue-Feng JIA ; Qing-Hua WU ; Tong-Bo DENG ; Xiao-Zhen SHEN ; Jian-Ping YE ; He FANG ; Rong-Chang ZHOU ; Yang CAO ; You-Fen CHEN ; Qi-Ning YANG ; Guo-Hong XU
China Journal of Orthopaedics and Traumatology 2024;37(11):1101-1106
OBJECTIVE:
To retrospectively analyze the clinical efficacy of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction combined with anterolateral complex repair and ACL reconstruction combined with ALL reconstruction in the treatment of anterior cruciate ligament injuries with high-grade pivot shift.
METHODS:
From January 2018 to June 2022, 49 patients combined ACL and ALL injuries with high-grade pivot shift were retrospectively studied from three hospitals, 29 of them underwent ACL reconstruction with anterolateral complex repair (repair group), including 23 males and 6 females with an average age of (27.5±4.8) years old, ranged from 20 to 37 years old;the injured sides were 13 on the left and 16 on the right, and 11 patients were suffered with meniscus injury. The other 20 patients underwent ACL and ALL reconstruction (reconstruction group) including 17 males and 3 females with the mean age of (27.1±4.5) years old, ranged from 20 to 38 years old;the injured sides were 8 on the left and 12 on the right, and 6 patients were suffered with meniscus injury. Knee stability (pivot shift test, KT-2000), range of motion, knee function (Lysholm scoring scale, Cincinnati sports activity scale (CSAS) scoring scale, and Tegner activity level score between two groups were compared.
RESULTS:
A total of 49 patients were followed up, the repair group receiving 13 to 20(15.3±1.8) months and the reconstruction group receiving 12 to 21(16.0±2.2) months. There was no statistically significant difference in the preoperative pivot shift test grading distribution between two groups (P>0.05). At the last postoperative follow-up, there were 24 patients with grade 0 and 5 patients with grade 1 in the repair group, and there were 18 patients with grade 0 and 2 patients with grade 1 in the reconstruction group, there is no significant difference in the distribution of axial shift test grading between two groups(P>0.05). The preoperative KT-2000 tibial displacement of two groups were (9.39±0.77) mm (repair group) and (9.14±0.78) mm (reconstruction group) respectively, with no statistically significant difference (P>0.05). At the final postoperative follow-up, there were 24 patients with KT-2000 tibial displacement <3 mm and 5 patients with 3 to 5 mm in the repair group, while 18 patients with <3 mm and 2 patients with 3 to 5 mm in the reconstruction group, KT-2000 tibial displacement distribution of two groups was no significant difference (P>0.05), but the KT-2000 tibial displacement in the reconstruction group (1.30±0.86) mm was significantly smaller than that in the repair group (1.99±1.11) mm (P<0.05). The final postoperative follow-up range of motion of the contralateral side knee between two groups was no significant difference (P>0.05). The range of motion of the suffering knee in the repair group was less than that in the reconstruction group (P<0.05). There was no significant difference in preoperative Lysholm and CSAS scores between two groups (P>0.05). At the final postoperative follow-up, both groups showed significant improvement in Lysholm and CSAS scores, while the Lysholm and CSAS scores of the reconstruction group were better than those of the repair group, and the difference was statistically significant (P<0.05). Significant differences was found in Tegner scores between two groups, which 16 patients in the repair group returned to their pre-injury activity level, and 17 patients in the reconstruction group returned to their pre-injury level (P<0.05).
CONCLUSION
Compared to anterolateral complex repair, combined ACL and ALL reconstruction in the treatment of ACL injuries with high-grade pivot shift results in better knee joint function and stability. This is advantageous in reducing the risk of ACL reconstruction failure.
Humans
;
Male
;
Female
;
Adult
;
Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction/methods*
;
Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injuries/surgery*
;
Young Adult
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Anterior Cruciate Ligament/surgery*
;
Range of Motion, Articular
9.Epidemiological study of incidence of systematic lupus erythematosus in Yinzhou, Ningbo, 2016-2021.
Xue Feng LAI ; Zhi Ke LIU ; Peng SHEN ; Ye Xiang SUN ; Huai Chu LU ; Si Yan ZHAN ; Hong Bo LIN
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2023;44(7):1080-1085
Objective: To characterize the incidence density of systematic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in Yinzhou District of Ningbo from 2016 to 2021, and compare the age and gender specific differences. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted based on the related data from 2015 to 2021 collected from the Health Information Platform of Yinzhou. Suspected SLE cases in local residents were identified by fuzzy matching of International Classification of Diseases 10th edition code "M32" or Chinese text "lupus". The classification criteria from Systemic Lupus International Collaboration Clinics-2012 and The European League Against Rheumatism/American College of Rheumatology-2019 were used for case verification. SLE cases were identified with specific algorithm based on verification results, and new cases were identified with 1 year as the washout period. The incidence density and 95%CI were estimated by Poisson distribution. Results: From 2016 to 2021, a total of 1 551 921 permanent residents were registered in Yinzhou, in whom 51.52% were women. The M(Q1,Q3) age at enrollment was 40.38 (27.54, 53.54) years. The M(Q1,Q3) of follow-up person-years was 3.83 (0.41, 5.83) years. There were 451 new SLE cases, in which 352 were women (78.05%). The 6-year incidence density was 8.14/100 000 person-years (95%CI: 7.41/100 000 person-years-8.93/100 000 person-years) for the total population, 3.68/100 000 person-years (95%CI: 2.99/100 000 person-years-4.48/100 000 person-years) for men and 12.37/100 000 person-years (95%CI: 11.11/100 000 person-years- 13.73/100 000 person-years) for women. The incidence density in men appeared a small peak at 20-29 years old, and began to increase with age from 40 years old. The incidence density in women was highest in age group 20-29 years (16.57/100 000 person-years) and remained to be high until 30-79 years old. The incidence density of SLE in Yinzhou show no significant temporal trend from 2016 to 2021 (men: P=0.848; women: P=1.000). Conclusions: The incidence density of SLE in Yinzhou from 2016 to 2021 was similar to those of other areas in China. SLE has a high incidence in women, especially in the young and elderly, suggesting that more attention should be paid to the diagnosis and treatment of SLE in women.
Adult
;
Aged
;
Female
;
Humans
;
Male
;
Middle Aged
;
Young Adult
;
Asian People
;
Incidence
;
Lupus Erythematosus, Systemic/diagnosis*
;
Retrospective Studies
;
China/epidemiology*
10.A risk prediction model of cervical cancer developed based on nested case-control design.
Pei LI ; Zhi Ke LIU ; Hou Yu ZHAO ; Xue Yang LIU ; Peng SHEN ; Hong Bo LIN ; Si Yan ZHAN ; Feng SUN
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2023;44(7):1139-1145
Objective: To construct a cervical cancer risk prediction model based on nested case-control study design and Yinzhou Health Information Platform in Ningbo, and provide reliable reference for self-risk assessment of cervical cancer in local women. Methods: In local women aged 25-75 years old who had no history of cervical cancer registered in Yinzhou before October 31, 2018, a follow up was conducted for at least three years, the patients who developed cervical cancer during the follow up period were selected as the case group and matched with a control group at a ratio of 1∶10. The prediction indicators before the onset was used in model construction. Variables were selected by Lasso-logistic regression, the variables with non-zero β were selected to fit the logistic regression model and Bootstrap was used for internal validation. The discrimination of the model was evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUROC), and the calibration was evaluated by calibration curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Results: The prediction indicators included in the final model were age, smoking status, history of cervicitis, history of adenomyosis, HPV testing, and thinprep cytologic test. The AUROC calculated in the internal validation was 0.740 (95%CI:0.739-0.740), and the calibration curve was almost identical with the ideal curve, P=0.991 in Hosmer-Lemeshow test, indicating that the model discrimination and calibration were good. Conclusions: In this study, a simple and practical cervical cancer risk prediction model was developed. The model can be used in general population with strong interpretability, good discrimination and calibration in internal validation, which can provide a reference for women to assess their risk of cervical cancer.


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