1.Predictive model for anxiety symptoms among junior high school students based on machine learning algorithms
YANG Yinmei, FENG Haiyang, LIU Mingxiu, YU Qiurui, MA Xin, YAN Hong, YU Bin, YU Chengcheng
Chinese Journal of School Health 2026;47(5):690-694
Objective:
To explore the influencing factors of anxiety symptoms and to construct a predictive model based on machine learning algorithms, so as to provide support for the prevention and management of anxiety symptoms among junior high school students.
Methods:
From April to May 2023, a stratified random cluster sampling method was adopted to select 8 176 junior high school students from Zhengzhou and Shangqiu citys. All participants completed the Adolescent Self rating Life Events Checklist, the 10item Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale, the School Connectedness Scale, the Parent-Child Cohesion Questionnaire, and the 7 item Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale. Logistic regression analysis identified the associated factors of anxiety symptoms among junior high school students. Predictive models were constructed using Logistic regression, Random Forest, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithms, with SHapley Additive exPlanations analysis explaining the optimal model.
Results:
The detection rate of anxiety symptoms among junior high school students was 16.3%. Logistic regression analysis showed that junior high school students who were female ( OR =1.22), in the ninth grade ( OR =1.27), living in urban areas ( OR =1.37), having a father with a college education or above ( OR =1.26), having a mother with a senior high school education ( OR =1.26), and experiencing higher levels of negative life events ( OR =1.05) reported a higher risk of anxiety symptoms(all P <0.05). In contrast, those with moderate family economic status ( OR =0.71), moderate academic burden ( OR =0.59), low academic burden ( OR =0.54), moderate sleep quality ( OR =0.46), good sleep quality ( OR =0.26), excellent sleep quality ( OR =0.15), higher levels of psychological resilience ( OR =0.96), higher levels of school connectedness ( OR =0.96), and higher levels of parent-child cohesion ( OR =0.98) reported a lower risk of anxiety symptoms (all P <0.05). Three machine learning models demonstrated good predictive performance for anxiety symptoms among junior high school students (all AUC>0.8), with the XGBoost model achieving the best predictive performance. SHAP analysis revealed that negative life events, sleep quality, school connectedness, psychological resilience and parent-child cohesion were the top five relevant factors for predicting anxiety symptoms.
Conclusions
The detection rate of anxiety symptoms among junior high school students is relatively high. The XGBoost model is the optimal predictive model for anxiety symptoms in the population. Negative life events, sleep quality, school connectedness, psychological resilience, and parent-child cohesion are significant correlates of anxiety symptoms among junior high school students.
2.Literature analysis of the differences in the occurrence of urinary epithelial carcinoma after kidney transplantation between northern and southern China
Pengjie WU ; Runhua TANG ; Dong WEI ; Yaqun ZHANG ; Hong MA ; Bin JIN ; Xin CHEN ; Jianlong WANG ; Ming LIU ; Yaoguang ZHANG ; Ben WAN ; Jianye WANG
Journal of Modern Urology 2025;30(5):432-437
Objective: To investigate the regional differences in the incidence of urothelial carcinoma among kidney transplant recipients between northern and southern China,so as to provide reference for early diagnosis of this disease. Methods: A comprehensive search was conducted across multiple databases,including CNKI,Wanfang,CBM,and PubMed,using the keywords “kidney transplantation” and “tumor” to collect clinical data from qualified kidney transplant centers.The latest and most complete literature data published by 17 transplant centers in northern China and 14 in southern China were included.Statistical analyses were performed to compare the incidence of post-transplant urothelial carcinoma and non-urothelial malignancies. Results: A total of 37 475 kidney transplant recipients were included,among whom 837 (2.23%) developed post-transplant malignancies,including urothelial carcinoma (366/837,43.73%),non-urothelial carcinoma (444/837,53.05%),and malignancies with unspecified pathology (27/837,3.23%).The incidence of malignancies was significantly higher in northern China than in southern China [(2.82±1.39)% vs. (1.67±0.83)%,P=0.011],with a particularly pronounced difference in the incidence of urothelial carcinoma [(1.68±1.12)% vs. (0.32±0.32)%,P<0.001].No significant difference was observed in the incidence of non-urothelial carcinoma between the two regions [(1.11±0.56)% vs. (1.35±0.65)%,P=0.279].Additionally,female transplant recipients exhibited a higher incidence of malignancies than males in both regions (southern China:2.38% vs. 1.80%; northern China:8.93% vs. 2.52%). Conclusion: The incidence of urothelial carcinoma following kidney transplantation is significantly higher in northern China than in southern China,underscoring the importance of implementing regular tumor screening for kidney transplant recipients,particularly for female patients in northern China,to facilitate early diagnosis and timely intervention.
3.Efficacy and safety of proximal gastrectomy versus total gastrectomy for Siewert type Ⅱ and Ⅲ adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction: A systematic review and meta-analysis
Yingjie LU ; Ziqiang HONG ; Hongchao LI ; Gang JIN ; Wenhao WANG ; Yi YANG ; Bin LIU ; Zijiang ZHU
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2025;32(05):693-699
Objective To systematically evaluate the efficacy and safety of proximal gastrectomy (PG) versus total gastrectomy (TG) for the treatment of Siewert type Ⅱ/Ⅲ adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction (AEG). Methods PubMed, The Cochrane Library, Web of Science, EMbase, CNKI, Wanfang, and VIP databases were searched for literature comparing the efficacy and safety of PG and TG for the treatment of Siewert type Ⅱ/Ⅲ AEG. The search period was from database inception to March 2023. Meta-analysis was performed using Review Manager 5.4 software. Results A total of 23 articles were included, including 16 retrospective cohort studies, 5 prospective cohort studies, and 2 randomized controlled trials. The total sample size was 2 826 patients, with 1 389 patients undergoing PG and 1 437 patients undergoing TG. Meta-analysis results showed that compared with TG, PG had less intraoperative blood loss [MD=−19.85, 95%CI (−37.20, −2.51), P=0.02] and shorter postoperative hospital stay [MD=−1.23, 95%CI (−2.38, −0.08), P=0.04]. TG had a greater number of lymph nodes dissected [MD=−6.20, 95%CI (−7.68, −4.71), P<0.001] and a lower incidence of reflux esophagitis [MD=3.02, 95%CI (1.24, 7.34), P=0.01]. There were no statistically significant differences between the two surgical approaches in terms of operative time, postoperative survival rate (1-year, 3-year, 5-year), and postoperative overall complications (P>0.05). Conclusion PG has advantages in terms of intraoperative blood loss and postoperative hospital stay, while TG has advantages in terms of the number of lymph nodes dissected and the incidence of reflux esophagitis. There is no significant difference in long-term survival between the two surgical approaches.
4.Current status of generalized pustular psoriasis: Findings from a multicenter hospital-based survey of 127 Chinese patients.
Haimeng WANG ; Jiaming XU ; Xiaoling YU ; Siyu HAO ; Xueqin CHEN ; Bin PENG ; Xiaona LI ; Ping WANG ; Chaoyang MIAO ; Jinzhu GUO ; Qingjie HU ; Zhonglan SU ; Sheng WANG ; Chen YU ; Qingmiao SUN ; Minkuo ZHANG ; Bin YANG ; Yuzhen LI ; Zhiqiang SONG ; Songmei GENG ; Aijun CHEN ; Zigang XU ; Chunlei ZHANG ; Qianjin LU ; Yan LU ; Xian JIANG ; Gang WANG ; Hong FANG ; Qing SUN ; Jie LIU ; Hongzhong JIN
Chinese Medical Journal 2025;138(8):953-961
BACKGROUND:
Generalized pustular psoriasis (GPP), a rare and recurrent autoinflammatory disease, imposes a substantial burden on patients and society. Awareness of GPP in China remains limited.
METHODS:
This cross-sectional survey, conducted between September 2021 and May 2023 across 14 hospitals in China, included GPP patients of all ages and disease phases. Data collected encompassed demographics, clinical characteristics, economic impact, disease severity, quality of life, and treatment-related complications. Risk factors for GPP recurrence were analyzed.
RESULTS:
Among 127 patients (female/male ratio = 1.35:1), the mean age of disease onset was 25 years (1st quartile [Q1]-3rd quartile [Q3]: 11-44 years); 29.2% had experienced GPP for more than 10 years. Recurrence occurred in 75.6% of patients, and nearly half reported no identifiable triggers. Younger age at disease onset ( P = 0.021) and transitioning to plaque psoriasis ( P = 0.022) were associated with higher recurrence rates. The median diagnostic delay was 8 months (Q1-Q3: 2-41 months), and 32.3% of patients reported misdiagnoses. Comorbidities were present in 53.5% of patients, whereas 51.1% experienced systemic complications during treatment. Depression and anxiety affected 84.5% and 95.6% of patients, respectively. During GPP flares, the median Dermatology Life Quality Index score was 19.0 (Q1-Q3: 13.0-23.5). This score showed significant differences between patients with and without systemic symptoms; it demonstrated correlations with both depression and anxiety scores. Treatment costs caused financial hardship in 55.9% of patients, underscoring the burden associated with GPP.
CONCLUSIONS
The substantial disease and economic burdens among Chinese GPP patients warrant increased attention. Patients with early onset disease and those transitioning to plaque psoriasis require targeted interventions to mitigate the high recurrence risk.
Humans
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Male
;
Female
;
Psoriasis/pathology*
;
Adult
;
Cross-Sectional Studies
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Adolescent
;
Child
;
Young Adult
;
Quality of Life
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Middle Aged
;
China/epidemiology*
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Recurrence
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Risk Factors
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Surveys and Questionnaires
;
East Asian People
5.Effects of resistance combined with aerobic chrono-exercise on common carotid artery elasticity and hemodynamics in young men.
Miao-Xin JIAO ; Bing-Yi SHEN ; Hai-Bin LIU ; Li-Hong CHEN ; Guang-Rui YANG
Acta Physiologica Sinica 2025;77(4):741-751
The purpose of the present study was to investigate the effects of resistance combined with aerobic chrono-exercise on the common carotid artery elasticity and hemodynamics. 24 healthy young men (21.96±0.43 years old) underwent a single acute resistance combined with aerobic exercise intervention at eight time periods (6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18, and 20 o'clock). The axial flow velocity and diameter waveforms of the common carotid artery were measured, and the hemodynamics were calculated using the classical hemodynamic theory before exercise, immediately after exercise, 10 min and 20 min after exercise. The results showed that during exercise recovery, systolic and mean pressures decreased more markedly after exercise at 8 o'clock (P < 0.05); At 20 min post-exercise, arterial stiffness index and pressure-strain elastic modulus after exercise at 6 o'clock were reduced compared with the resting state, but were significantly elevated after exercise at 20 o'clock (P < 0.05). Immediately after exercise, the pressure rise was higher after exercise at 6 o'clock and the mean wall shear stress was higher after exercise at 20 o'clock (P < 0.05). These results suggest that resistance combined with aerobic chrono-exercise produces different effects on common carotid artery hemodynamics in young men. A single acute session of resistance combined with aerobic exercise at 8 o'clock is more effective in lowering blood pressure. Exercise at 6 o'clock is beneficial to improve arterial elasticity but is not recommended for young male individuals with cardiovascular disease risks because of the excessive increase in blood pressure immediately after exercise. Exercise at 20 o'clock is more effective in improving wall shear stress but is accompanied by elevated arterial stiffness indices and pressure-strain elastic modulus. These results provide a scientific basis for healthy young men in choosing the time of exercise by exploring the common carotid artery elasticity and hemodynamic-related indices.
Humans
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Male
;
Young Adult
;
Exercise/physiology*
;
Carotid Artery, Common/physiology*
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Hemodynamics/physiology*
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Vascular Stiffness/physiology*
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Elasticity
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Resistance Training
;
Adult
6.Mechanism of Naoxintong Capsules in treatment of rats with multiple cerebral infarctions and myocardial injury based on HIF-1α/VEGF pathway.
Xiao-Lu ZHANG ; Jin-Feng SHANG ; Yin-Lian WEN ; Gui-Jin-Feng HUANG ; Bo-Hong WANG ; Wan-Ting WEI ; Wen-Bin CHEN ; Xin LIU
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(7):1889-1899
This study aims to explore whether Naoxintong Capsules improve multiple cerebral infarctions and myocardial injury via promoting angiogenesis, thereby exerting a simultaneous treatment effect on both the brain and heart. Male SD rats were randomly divided into six groups: sham-operated group, model group, high-dose, medium-dose, and low-dose groups of Naoxintong Capsules(440, 220, and 110 mg·kg~(-1)), and nimodipine group(10.8 mg·kg~(-1)). Rat models of multiple cerebral infarctions were established by injecting autologous thrombus, and samples were collected and tested seven days after modeling. Evaluations included multiple cerebral infarction model assessments, neurological function scores, grip strength tests, and rotarod tests, so as to evaluate neuromotor functions. Morphological structures of brain and heart tissue were observed using hematoxylin-eosin(HE) staining, Nissl staining, and Masson staining. Network pharmacology was employed to screen the mechanisms of Naoxintong Capsules in improving multiple cerebral infarctions and myocardial injury. Neuronal and myocardial cell ultrastructures were observed using transmission electron microscopy. Apoptosis rate in brain neuronal cells was detected by TdT-mediated dUTP nick end labeling(TUNEL) staining, and reactive oxygen species(ROS) levels in myocardial cells were measured. Immunofluorescence was used to detect the expression of platelet endothelial cell adhesion molecule-1(CD31), antigen identified by monoclonal antibody Ki67(Ki67), hematopoietic progenitor cell antigen CD34(CD34), and hypoxia inducible factor-1α(HIF-1α) in brain and myocardial tissue. Western blot, and real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction(RT-qPCR) were used to detect the expression of HIF-1α, vascular endothelial growth factor(VEGF), vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 2(VEGFR2), sarcoma(Src), basic fibroblast growth factor(bFGF), angiopoietin-1(Ang-1), and TEK receptor tyrosine kinase(Tie-2). Compared with the model group, the medium-dose group of Naoxintong Capsules showed significantly lower neurological function scores, increased grip strength, and prolonged time on the rotarod. Pathological damage in brain and heart tissue was reduced, with increased and more orderly arranged mitochondria in neurons and cardiomyocytes. Apoptosis in brain neuronal cells was decreased, and ROS levels in cardiomyocytes were reduced. The microvascular density and endothelial cells of new blood vessels in brain and heart tissue increased, with increased overlapping regions of CD31 and Ki67 expression. The relative protein and mRNA expression levels of HIF-1α, VEGF, VEGFR2, Src, Ang-1, Tie-2, and bFGF were elevated in brain tissue and myocardial tissue. Naoxintong Capsules may improve multiple cerebral infarctions and myocardial injury by mediating HIF-1α/VEGF expression to promote angiogenesis.
Animals
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Male
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/administration & dosage*
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Rats, Sprague-Dawley
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Rats
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Cerebral Infarction/genetics*
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Hypoxia-Inducible Factor 1, alpha Subunit/genetics*
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Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor A/genetics*
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Capsules
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Signal Transduction/drug effects*
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Humans
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Brain/metabolism*
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Myocardium/metabolism*
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Apoptosis/drug effects*
7.Yougui Yin attenuates adipogenic differentiation of bone marrow mesenchymal stem cells by modulating PPARγ pathway to treat glucocorticoid-induced osteonecrosis.
Hong-Zhong XI ; Hao CHEN ; Shuai HE ; Wei SONG ; Jia-Hao FU ; Bin DU ; Xin LIU
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(12):3356-3367
This study aims to investigate the pharmacological effects and mechanisms of Yougui Yin in treating glucocorticoid-induced osteonecrosis. A rat model of glucocorticoid-associated osteonecrosis of the femoral head(GA-ONFH) was established by intramuscular injection of dexamethasone at 20 mg·kg~(-1) every other day for 8 weeks. Rats were randomly allocated into control, model, and low-and high-dose(1.5 and 3.0 g·kg~(-1), respectively) Yougui Yin groups. After modeling, rats in Yougui Yin groups were administrated with Yougui Yin via gavage, which was followed by femoral specimen collection. Hematoxylin-eosin staining was employed to observe femoral head repair, and immunofluorescence was employed to assess adipogenic differentiation of bone marrow mesenchymal stem cells(BMSCs) within the femoral head. Cell experiments were carried out with dexamethasone(1 μmol·L~(-1))-treated BMSCs to evaluate the effects of Yougui Yin-medicated serum on adipogenic differentiation. Animal experiments demonstrated that compared with the model group, Yougui Yin at both high and low doses significantly improved bone mineral density(BMD), bone volume/total volume(BV/TV) ratio, and trabecular thickness(Tb.Th) in the femoral head. Additionally, Yougui Yin alleviated necrosis-like changes and adipocyte infiltration and significantly reduced the expression level of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor γ(PPARγ) in the femoral head, thereby suppressing the adipogenic differentiation of BMSCs in GA-ONFH rats. The cell experiments revealed that Yougui Yin-medicated serum markedly inhibited dexamethasone-induced adipogenic differentiation of BMSCs and down-regulated the level of PPARγ. The overexpression of PPARγ attenuated the inhibitory effect of Yougui Yin-medicated serum on the adipogenic differentiation of BMSCs, indicating the critical role of PPARγ in Yougui Yin-mediated suppression of adipogenic differentiation of BMSCs. In conclusion, Yougui Yin exerts therapeutic effects on glucocorticoid-induced osteonecrosis by down-regulating PPARγ expression and inhibiting adipogenic differentiation of BMSCs.
Animals
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Mesenchymal Stem Cells/metabolism*
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PPAR gamma/genetics*
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Rats
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Drugs, Chinese Herbal/administration & dosage*
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Male
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Glucocorticoids/adverse effects*
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Rats, Sprague-Dawley
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Adipogenesis/drug effects*
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Osteonecrosis/genetics*
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Cell Differentiation/drug effects*
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Bone Marrow Cells/metabolism*
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Femur Head Necrosis/chemically induced*
;
Humans
8.Mechanism of Jianpi Bushen Yiqi Decoction in promoting AChR clustering and improving neuromuscular junction function in EAMG mice based on Agrin/LRP4/MuSK signaling pathway.
Jia-Hui WANG ; Ru-Ge LIU ; Han-Bin LIU ; Jia-Hao WEI ; Jie ZHANG ; Xue-Ying LIU ; Feng GAO ; Jun-Hong YANG
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(15):4325-4332
This study investigated the mechanism by which Jianpi Bushen Yiqi Decoction promotes acetylcholine receptor(AChR) clustering in myasthenia gravis through the Agrin/low-density lipoprotein receptor-related protein 4(LRP4)/muscle-specific receptor tyrosine kinases(MuSK) signaling pathway. A total of 114 female C57BL/6J mice were divided into the normal group, modeling group, and solvent control group. The normal group and the solvent control group were immunized with phosphate-buffered saline(PBS), while the modeling group was established as an experimental autoimmune myasthenia gravis(EAMG) model using the murine-derived AChR-α subunit R97-116 peptide fragment. After successful modeling, the mice were randomly assigned to the model group, the low-, medium-, and high-dose Jianpi Bushen Yiqi Decoction groups, and the prednisone group. After four weeks of continuous treatment, muscle strength was assessed using Lennon scores and grip strength tests. Immunofluorescence staining was conducted on differentiated C2C12 myotubes incubated with a drug-containing serum to observe the number of AChR clusters. The integrity of AChR on myofilaments in mouse gastrocnemius muscles was further assessed by immunofluorescence staining. Hematoxylin-Eosin(HE)staining was applied to examine pathological changes in the gastrocnemius muscles of EAMG mice treated with Jianpi Bushen Yiqi Decoction. Western blot was utilized to detect the expression of key proteins in the Agrin/LRP4/MuSK signaling pathway in both C2C12 myotubes and mouse gastrocnemius muscles. The results demonstrated that compared to the model group, the prednisone group exhibited a significant decrease in the body weights of mice, whereas no significant differences in the body weights of mice were observed among the low-, medium-, and high-dose Jianpi Bushen Yiqi Decoction groups. All treatment groups showed significantly improved grip strength and Lennon scores. Additionally, the formula promoted AChR clustering on myotubes and enhanced AChR integrity in gastrocnemius myofilaments and reduced inflammatory infiltration between muscle tissue and fibrous hyperplasia. Furthermore, Jianpi Bushen Yiqi Decoction upregulated the protein expression of AChRα1, Agrin, and p-MuSK in C2C12 myotubes and increased the protein expression of AChRα1, Agrin, MuSK, p-MuSK, LRP4, and docking protein 7(Dok-7)in gastrocnemius tissue. In conclusion, Jianpi Bushen Yiqi Decoction may promote AChR clustering by targeting key proteins in the Agrin/LRP4/MuSK signaling pathway, thereby improving neuromuscular junction function and enhancing muscle strength.
Animals
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Agrin/genetics*
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Mice
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Drugs, Chinese Herbal/administration & dosage*
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Signal Transduction/drug effects*
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Receptors, Cholinergic/genetics*
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Female
;
Mice, Inbred C57BL
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Receptor Protein-Tyrosine Kinases/genetics*
;
Neuromuscular Junction/metabolism*
;
Myasthenia Gravis, Autoimmune, Experimental/physiopathology*
;
Humans
;
LDL-Receptor Related Proteins
9.Association between improved erectile function and dietary patterns: a systematic review and meta-analysis.
Bin YANG ; Chao WEI ; Yu-Cong ZHANG ; De-Lin MA ; Jian BAI ; Zhuo LIU ; Xia-Ming LIU ; Ji-Hong LIU ; Xiao-Yi YUAN ; Wei-Min YAO
Asian Journal of Andrology 2025;27(2):239-244
Erectile dysfunction (ED) is prevalent among men, but its relationship with dietary habits is uncertain. The aim of our study was to assess whether dietary patterns enhance erectile function by reviewing the literature published before August 1, 2022, via PubMed, Web of Science, and EMBASE databases. The data compiled included author details; publication dates, countries, treatments, patient numbers, ages, follow-ups, and clinical trial outcomes, such as ED cases, odds ratios (ORs), confidence intervals (CIs), and International Index of Erectile Function-5 (IIEF-5) scores with means and standard deviations. An analysis of 14 studies with 27 389 participants revealed that plant-based diets (OR = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.66-0.75; P < 0.00001), low-fat diets (OR = 0.27, 95% CI: 0.13-0.53; P = 0.0002), and alternative diets such as intermittent fasting and organic diets (OR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.36-0.80; P = 0.002) significantly reduced ED risk. High-protein low-fat diets (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.38, 95% CI: 1.12-1.64; P < 0.00001) and high-carb low-fat diets (HR = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.55-1.04; P < 0.00001) improved IIEF-5 scores. Combined diet and exercise interventions decreased the likelihood of ED (OR = 0.49, 95% CI: 0.28-0.85; P = 0.01) and increased the IIEF-5 score (OR = 3.40, 95% CI: 1.69-5.11; P < 0.0001). Diets abundant in fruits and vegetables (OR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.96-0.98; P < 0.00001) and nuts (OR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.37-0.80; P = 0.002) were also correlated with lower ED risk. Our meta-analysis underscores a strong dietary-ED association, suggesting that low-fat/Mediterranean diets rich in produce and nuts could benefit ED management.
Humans
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Male
;
Erectile Dysfunction/epidemiology*
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Diet
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Diet, Fat-Restricted
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Feeding Behavior
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Penile Erection/physiology*
;
Diet, Vegetarian
10.Multiple biomarkers risk score for accurately predicting the long-term prognosis of patients with acute coronary syndrome.
Zhi-Yong ZHANG ; Xin-Yu WANG ; Cong-Cong HOU ; Hong-Bin LIU ; Lyu LYU ; Mu-Lei CHEN ; Xiao-Rong XU ; Feng JIANG ; Long LI ; Wei-Ming LI ; Kui-Bao LI ; Juan WANG
Journal of Geriatric Cardiology 2025;22(7):656-667
BACKGROUND:
Biomarkers-based prediction of long-term risk of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is scarce. We aim to develop a risk score integrating clinical routine information (C) and plasma biomarkers (B) for predicting long-term risk of ACS patients.
METHODS:
We included 2729 ACS patients from the OCEA (Observation of cardiovascular events in ACS patients). The earlier admitted 1910 patients were enrolled as development cohort; and the subsequently admitted 819 subjects were treated as validation cohort. We investigated 10-year risk of cardiovascular (CV) death, myocardial infarction (MI) and all cause death in these patients. Potential variables contributing to risk of clinical events were assessed using Cox regression models and a score was derived using main part of these variables.
RESULTS:
During 16,110 person-years of follow-up, there were 238 CV death/MI in the development cohort. The 7 most important predictors including in the final model were NT-proBNP, D-dimer, GDF-15, peripheral artery disease (PAD), Fibrinogen, ST-segment elevated MI (STEMI), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), termed as CB-ACS score. C-index of the score for predication of cardiovascular events was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.76-0.82) in development cohort and 0.77 (95% CI: 0.76-0.78) in the validation cohort (5832 person-years of follow-up), which outperformed GRACE 2.0 and ABC-ACS risk score. The CB-ACS score was also well calibrated in development and validation cohort (Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino: P = 0.70 and P = 0.07, respectively).
CONCLUSIONS
CB-ACS risk score provides a useful tool for long-term prediction of CV events in patients with ACS. This model outperforms GRACE 2.0 and ABC-ACS ischemic risk score.


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