1.Application of sample size re-estimation within the"promising zone"framework in adaptive design clinical trials
Xiao YANG ; Xue XIA ; Quan ZHOU ; Yunyi HAO ; Anxin WANG
Journal of Capital Medical University 2025;46(2):197-201
The"promising zone"is a method used to analyze interim data from adaptive design clinical trials in an unblinded state.It allows for the adjustment of sample size based on interim results to enhance the trial's probability of success or minimize investment in unnecessary sample size.Mehta and Pocock proposed rules for increasing sample size based on interim analysis results using the concept of the"promising zone"(MP design).Furthermore,combination of the MP design with group sequential design can set up early stopping boundaries in trials,allowing for a reduction in sample size under favorable or unfavorable zone.The combination test(CT)design further optimizes the framework of the"promising zone",by considering sample size and conditional power in combination to achieve the highest conditional power with the smallest sample size.This review summarizes the principles of the"promising zone",introduces the method of determining the"promising zone"and re-estimating sample size,and further illustrates the feasibility of this method in clinical trials with a practical case.
2.Comparison of random forest and Cox regression models for predicting long-term survival after radical resection of HBV-associated hepatocellu-lar carcinoma
Guang-zhou LI ; Hong-lei WANG ; Xi-quan CHEN ; Yang HE ; Yan-hao CHEN ; Cui HU ; Miao WANG ; De-xiao ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Current Advances in General Surgery 2025;28(5):355-360
Objective:To analyze the factors associated with long-term survival after radical resection of hepatitis B virus(HBV)-associated hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC),and to construct random forest and Cox regression models,to evaluate the two models.Methods:A total of 368 patients with HBV-infected HCC who underwent radical resection were selected retrospectively.These patients were categorized as having a good prognosis(n=266)or a poor prognosis(n=102)based on their survival and mortality status.Univariate and Cox regression analysis were used to identify fac-tors that predict poor prognosis in HCC patients after surgery,and Cox regression and random forest prediction models were constructed and evaluated.Results:There were significant differences in smoking history,Child-Pugh classifica-tion,cirrhosis,microvascular invasion,TNM staging,tumor capsule integrity,platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio(PLR),regular antiviral therapy,HBV-DNA load,alpha-fetoprotein(AFP),neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio(NLR),systemic immune in-flammatory index(SII),and albumin-to-globulin ratio(AGR)between the two groups(P<0.05);Cox regression showed that cirrhosis,microvascular invasion,regular antiviral treatment,HBV-DNA load,NLR,PLR,SII,and AGR were related factors that negatively affected the prognosis of patients with HBV-infected HCC after surgery(P<0.05),with an AUC of 0.870 for predicting prognosis;the importance ranking obtained by the random forest model was HBV-DNA load,cirrho-sis,regular antiviral therapy,microvascular invasion,NLR,PLR,AGR,and SII,with an AUC of 0.926 for predicting prog-nosis;the AUC predicted by the random forest model was greater than that predicted by the Cox regression model(Z=2.411,P=0.016).Conclusion:HBV-DNA load,cirrhosis,regular antiviral therapy,microvascular invasion,NLR,PLR,AGR,and SII are factors that affect the poor prognosis of patients with HBV-related HCC after surgery.The random for-est prediction model constructed based on these factors has high predictive value and is superior to the Cox regression prediction model.
3.Recommendation for Forensic Identification Guidelines on Insulin Overdoes
Yu-Hao YUAN ; Zhong-Hao YU ; Jia-Xin ZHANG ; Long-Da MA ; Shu-Quan ZHAO ; Ning-Guo LIU ; Rong-Qi WU ; Biao ZHANG ; Xin-Biao LIAO ; Xin CHEN ; Guang-Long HE ; Yi-Wu ZHOU
Journal of Forensic Medicine 2025;41(2):168-175
Insulin is an important protein hormone that participates in multiple metabolic pathways.Biosynthetic insulin has been widely used in the treatment of type 1 and type 2 diabetes.Currently,the number of reported cases of insulin overdose both at home and abroad is gradually increasing,and insulin homicide is no longer a means of"committing murder without leaving a trace".At present,there are no systematic protocols for the identification of insulin overdose in the field of forensic medi-cine in China.This article introduces the causes,toxicological characteristics,forensic examination,labo-ratory testing methods and indicator reference of insulin overdose.Based on the identification practice and research results and referring to relevant studies on insulin overdose at home and abroad,this pa-per aims to provide recommendations and references for the formulation of forensic identification guide-lines for insulin overdose cases.
4.Risk factors for cutout failure in geriatric intertrochanteric fracture patients after cephalomedullary nail fixation.
You-Liang HAO ; Fang ZHOU ; Hong-Quan JI ; Yun TIAN ; Zhi-Shan ZHANG ; Yan GUO ; Yang LYU ; Zhong-Wei YANG ; Guo-Jin HOU
China Journal of Orthopaedics and Traumatology 2025;38(2):141-147
OBJECTIVE:
To determine risk factors for cutout failure in geriatric intertrochanteric fracture patients after cephalomedullary nail fixation.
METHODS:
A retrospective review of 518 elderly patients who underwent cephalomedullary nail fixation for intertrochanteric fractures between January 2008 and August 2018 was conducted, including 167 males and 351 females, age from 65 to 97 years old. All patients were followed up for at least one year after surgery and divided into a healed group and a cutout group based on whether the hip screw cutout occurred. Among all patients, 10 cases experienced hip screw cutout. The general information, surgical data, and radiological data of the two groups were compared, and risk factors influencing hip screw cutout were analyzed. Propensity score matching was then performed on the cutout group based on gender, age, body mass index(BMI), and American Society of Anesthesiologists(ASA), and 40 patients from the healed group were matched at a ratio of 1∶4. Key risk factors affecting hip screw cutout were further analyzed. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted to evaluate associations between variables and cutout failure.
RESULTS:
There were no statistically significant differences between the healed group and the cutout group in terms of age, gender, BMI, ASA, and AO classification. However, statistically significant differences were observed between the two groups in terms of reduction quality(P=0.003) and tip-apex distance(TAD), P<0.001. Multivariate analysis identified poor reduction quality OR=23.138, 95%CI(2.163, 247.551), P=0.009 and TAD≥25 mm OR=30.538, 95%CI(2.935, 317.770), P=0.004 as independent risk factors for cutout failure.
CONCLUSION
The present study identified poor reduction quality and TAD≥25 mm as factors for cutout failure in geriatric intertrochanteric fractures treated with cephalomedullary nails. Further studies are needed to calculate the optimal TAD for cephalomedullary nails.
Humans
;
Male
;
Female
;
Hip Fractures/surgery*
;
Aged, 80 and over
;
Aged
;
Risk Factors
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Fracture Fixation, Intramedullary/adverse effects*
;
Bone Nails
;
Bone Screws
5.Targeted therapy for bone metastases of malignant tumors
Kun-Hao ZHOU ; Hong-Quan ZHANG ; Yu YU
Acta Anatomica Sinica 2025;56(5):619-624
Bone metastasis is a pathological condition in which malignant tumors originating from non-osseous tissues disseminate to bone tissue via the bloodstream,lymphatic system,or direct infiltration,inducing bone destruction and severe pain.This condition disrupts normal bone metabolism and triggers various skeletal-related events(SREs),thereby significantly impairing patients' quality of life.Current therapeutic strategies for bone metastasis include surgical intervention,radiotherapy,targeted therapy,and immunotherapy.Among these,bone-targeted therapy has shown promising potential in managing bone metastasis.Recent advancements have highlighted osteoblasts and osteoclasts,the primary regulators of bone remodeling,as critical therapeutic targets.Consequently,several bone-targeted drugs have been developed.These agents not only substantially reduce the incidence of SREs but also markedly enhance patients' quality of life and clinical outcomes.In this review,we elucidate the mechanisms of drug action targeting osteoclasts and osteoblasts,and propose potential directions for future research in bone-targeted therapy.
6.Treating premature ejaculation combined with anxiety and depression based on the "four-dimensional integration" of the "holism of body and spirit" theory
Yi WEI ; Zhiming HONG ; Junfeng QIU ; Zilong CHEN ; Hao KUANG ; Yangling ZENG ; Quan WANG ; Wenbin ZHOU
Journal of Beijing University of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2025;48(3):418-423
Premature ejaculation refers to a sexual dysfunction in which men experience a short intravaginal ejaculation latency and a lack of control over ejaculation during sexual activity. The onset of this condition is often accompanied by anxiety and depression, which can seriously affect the quality of the patient′s sexual life and the relationship between partners. Based on the "integration of body and spirit" theory in traditional Chinese medicine, our team believes that this condition is a comorbidity of physical and spiritual factors. We propose that the core pathogenesis of this disease lies in the "loss of form and essence, impairment of spirit, and depression of the mind, "while the primary treatment principle involves "nourishing form and regulating spirit." As a result, a new diagnosis and treatment approach of "four-dimensional integration" is summarized in this study. The disease is treated through the four dimensions of shape, body, spirit, and emotion. Traditional Chinese medicine is used to adjust the shape in cases where the physical form is damaged. For individuals with depression of heart and liver qi, the treatment focuses on soothing the heart and smoothing liver qi, and the modified Wangyou Powder and Xuanzhi Decoction is used. In cases where the heart and kidney function are compromised, the treatment involves nourishing both the heart and kidney while restoring interaction between the heart and the kidney, and modified Jihuo Yansi Elixir is used. To reduce the sensitivity of the glans penis, the patient′s body is washed with a traditional Chinese medicine formula, and a delicate fumigation formula is decocted for external washing. For those who are not in tune with their god, psychological counseling can be used to regulate their spirit and advocate "self-partner" and psychotherapy. If there are issues with intimacy, partners should focus on cooperating during foreplay, sexual intercourse, and post-coital interactions. Overall, the treatment aims to harmonize the body and spirit, addressing both physical and psychological factors through a comprehensive, multi-dimensional approach. This method provides new perspectives and ideas for the clinical diagnosis and treatment of this condition.
7.Application of sample size re-estimation within the"promising zone"framework in adaptive design clinical trials
Xiao YANG ; Xue XIA ; Quan ZHOU ; Yunyi HAO ; Anxin WANG
Journal of Capital Medical University 2025;46(2):197-201
The"promising zone"is a method used to analyze interim data from adaptive design clinical trials in an unblinded state.It allows for the adjustment of sample size based on interim results to enhance the trial's probability of success or minimize investment in unnecessary sample size.Mehta and Pocock proposed rules for increasing sample size based on interim analysis results using the concept of the"promising zone"(MP design).Furthermore,combination of the MP design with group sequential design can set up early stopping boundaries in trials,allowing for a reduction in sample size under favorable or unfavorable zone.The combination test(CT)design further optimizes the framework of the"promising zone",by considering sample size and conditional power in combination to achieve the highest conditional power with the smallest sample size.This review summarizes the principles of the"promising zone",introduces the method of determining the"promising zone"and re-estimating sample size,and further illustrates the feasibility of this method in clinical trials with a practical case.
8.Comparison of random forest and Cox regression models for predicting long-term survival after radical resection of HBV-associated hepatocellu-lar carcinoma
Guang-zhou LI ; Hong-lei WANG ; Xi-quan CHEN ; Yang HE ; Yan-hao CHEN ; Cui HU ; Miao WANG ; De-xiao ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Current Advances in General Surgery 2025;28(5):355-360
Objective:To analyze the factors associated with long-term survival after radical resection of hepatitis B virus(HBV)-associated hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC),and to construct random forest and Cox regression models,to evaluate the two models.Methods:A total of 368 patients with HBV-infected HCC who underwent radical resection were selected retrospectively.These patients were categorized as having a good prognosis(n=266)or a poor prognosis(n=102)based on their survival and mortality status.Univariate and Cox regression analysis were used to identify fac-tors that predict poor prognosis in HCC patients after surgery,and Cox regression and random forest prediction models were constructed and evaluated.Results:There were significant differences in smoking history,Child-Pugh classifica-tion,cirrhosis,microvascular invasion,TNM staging,tumor capsule integrity,platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio(PLR),regular antiviral therapy,HBV-DNA load,alpha-fetoprotein(AFP),neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio(NLR),systemic immune in-flammatory index(SII),and albumin-to-globulin ratio(AGR)between the two groups(P<0.05);Cox regression showed that cirrhosis,microvascular invasion,regular antiviral treatment,HBV-DNA load,NLR,PLR,SII,and AGR were related factors that negatively affected the prognosis of patients with HBV-infected HCC after surgery(P<0.05),with an AUC of 0.870 for predicting prognosis;the importance ranking obtained by the random forest model was HBV-DNA load,cirrho-sis,regular antiviral therapy,microvascular invasion,NLR,PLR,AGR,and SII,with an AUC of 0.926 for predicting prog-nosis;the AUC predicted by the random forest model was greater than that predicted by the Cox regression model(Z=2.411,P=0.016).Conclusion:HBV-DNA load,cirrhosis,regular antiviral therapy,microvascular invasion,NLR,PLR,AGR,and SII are factors that affect the poor prognosis of patients with HBV-related HCC after surgery.The random for-est prediction model constructed based on these factors has high predictive value and is superior to the Cox regression prediction model.
9.Diagnostic value of color Doppler ultrasonography combined with shear-wave elastography in thyroid micropapillary carcinoma
Yan WU ; Quan ZHOU ; Yuling FAN ; Li SHENG ; Hao ZHANG ; Dan CHEN
Chinese Journal of Postgraduates of Medicine 2024;47(8):705-709
Objective:To explore the value of color Doppler ultrasound (CDUS) combined with shear wave elastography (SWE) in the diagnosis of thyroid micropapillary carcinoma (PTMC).Methods:The clinical data were retrospectively collected including 51 patients with PTMC (study group) and 49 patients with benign thyroid nodules (control group) who treatment in Maanshan 17 Metallurgical Hospital from October 2020 to December 2022. The clinical data, serum tumor markers, CDUS quantitative parameters, and SWE quantitative parameters were compared between the two groups, the correlation between CDUS, SWE quantitative parameters and serum tumor markers were analyzed by Pearson test, and the diagnostic value of CDUS, SWE quantitative parameters were analyzed by receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve.Results:The levels of serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), thyroglobulin (TG), galactose hemagglutinin-3 (Gal-3), resistance index (RI), peak systolic flow velocity (PSV), elasticity modulus minimum (E min), elasticity modulus mean (E mean), and elasticity modulus maximum (E max) in the study group were higher than those in the control group: (28.76 ± 4.29) μg/L vs. (15.73 ± 2.96) μg/L, (117.53 ± 25.17) μg/L vs. (49.85 ± 9.64) μg/L, (8.31 ± 2.43) μg/L vs. (3.50 ± 0.82) μg/L, 0.85 ± 0.21 vs. 0.54 ± 0.13, (44.18 ± 8.26) cm/s vs. (22.05 ± 6.49) cm/s, (15.80 ± 1.94) kPa vs. (12.97 ± 1.58) kPa, (38.02 ± 10.39) kPa vs. (23.16 ± 7.83) kPa, (60.13 ± 19.41) kPa vs. (34.65 ± 11.87) kPa, there were statistical differences ( P<0.05). In patients with PTMC, the results of Pearson test showed that, RI, PSV, E min, E mean, and E max were positively correlated with serum CEA, TG, and Gal-3 levels ( P<0.05). The results of ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of the combined diagnosis of PTMC by RI, PSV, E min, E mean, and E max was 0.937. Conclusions:CDUS combined with SWE can provide reliable reference for clinical diagnosis of PTMC.
10.Determining Disease Activity and Glucocorticoid Response in Thyroid-Associated Ophthalmopathy:Preliminary Study Using Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced MRI
Hao HU ; Xiong-Ying PU ; Jiang ZHOU ; Wen-Hao JIANG ; Qian WU ; Jin-Ling LU ; Fei-Yun WU ; Huan-Huan CHEN ; Xiao-Quan XU
Korean Journal of Radiology 2024;25(12):1070-1082
Objective:
To assess the role of dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE)-MRI of the extraocular muscles (EOMs) for determining the activity of thyroid-associated ophthalmopathy (TAO) and treatment response to glucocorticoids (GCs).
Materials and Methods:
We prospectively enrolled 65 patients with TAO (41 active, 82 eyes; 24 inactive, 48 eyes). Twenty-two active patients completed the GC treatment and follow-up assessment, including 15 patients (30 eyes) and 7 patients (14 eyes), defined as responsive and unresponsive, respectively. Model-free (time to peak [TTP], area under the curve [AUC], and Slope max) and model-based (Ktrans , Kep, and Ve) parameters of EOMs in embedded simplified histogram analyses were calculated and compared between groups. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent predictors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to evaluate the diagnostic performance.
Results:
Active patients exhibited significantly higher TTP at the 10th percentile (-10th), TTP-mean, and TTP at the 90th percentile (-90th); AUC-10th, AUC-mean, AUC-90th, and AUC-max; Ktrans -10th and Ktrans -mean; and Ve-10th, Ve-mean, Ve-90th, and Ve-max than inactive patients (P < 0.05). Responsive patients exhibited significantly lower TTP-min; higher Ktrans -mean and Ktrans -max; and higher Kep-10th, Kep-mean, and Kep-max than unresponsive patients (P < 0.05). TTP-mean and Ve-mean were independent variables for determining disease activity (P = 0.017 and 0.022, respectively). A combination of the two parameters could determine active TAO with moderate performance (AUROC = 0.687). TTP-min and Ktrans -mean were independent predictors of the response to GCs (P = 0.023 and 0.004, respectively), uniting which could determine the response to GCs with decent performance (AUROC = 0.821).
Conclusion
DCE-MRI-derived model-free and model-based parameters of EOMs can assist in the evaluation of TAO. In particular, TTP-mean and Ve-mean could be useful for determining the activity of TAO, whereas TTP-min and K trans -mean could be promising biomarkers for determining the response to GCs.


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