1.Risk factors and their predictive efficacy for early postoperative complications in elderly patients with hip fracture
Deen WAN ; Yongzhou YAN ; Feng SHUANG ; Hao LI ; Zhi ZENG ; Mudan HUANG ; Lu HAN ; Xiang PENG ; Di YANG ; Ming CHEN ; Qixin LIU
Chinese Journal of Trauma 2025;41(3):274-281
Objective:To investigate the risk factors and their predictive efficacy for early postoperative complications in elderly patients with hip fracture.Methods:A retrospective cohort study was conducted on the clinical data of 203 elderly patients with hip fracture admitted to the 908th Hospital of the Joint Logistics Support Force of the PLA and the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University from January 2022 to December 2023, including 54 males and 149 females, aged 65-100 years [(80.5±7.7)years]. There were 96 patients with femoral neck fracture and 107 patients with intertrochanteric fracture. According to the AO/OTA classification, the fracture was classified as type 31A in 107 patients and type 31B in 96. Among them, 81 patients were treated with proximal femoral nail antirotation (PFNA), 65 with semi-hip arthroplasty, 52 with total hip arthroplasty (THA), and 5 with closed reduction and cannulated nail internal fixation. The patients were divided into complication group ( n=65) and non-complication group ( n=138) according to whether complications (mainly including delirium, lung infection, stress ulcer, and deep vein thrombosis of the lower limbs) occurred within 15 days after surgery. The gender, age, age stage, educational level, cause of injury, associated underlying diseases before surgery, AO/OTA classification, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification, 5-factor modified frailty index (mFI-5) score, prognostic nutritional index (PNI), anesthesia method, operation method, operation time, intraoperative blood loss, length of hospital stay, etc., were recorded in the two groups. Univariate analysis and multivariate binary logistic regression analysis were used to evaluate the correlation between the above indexes and the occurrence of early postoperative complications in elderly patients with hip fracture and to determine their independent risk factors. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted and the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated to evaluate the predictive efficacy of each risk factor for the occurrence of early postoperative complications in elderly patients with hip fracture. Results:Univariate analysis showed a certain correlation between age, age stage, associated underlying diseases before surgery, AO/OTA classification, ASA classification, mFI-5 score, PNI, operation method, and length of hospital stay and the occurrence of early postoperative complications in elderly patients with hip fracture ( P<0.05), while gender, educational level, cause of injury, anesthesia method, operation time, and intraoperative blood loss were not correlated with the occurrence of early postoperative complications in elderly patients with hip fracture ( P>0.05). The results of multivariate binary logistic regression analysis showed that the associated underlying diseases before surgery ( OR=5.46, 95% CI 1.33, 22.39, P<0.05), mFI-5 score ( OR=15.90, 95% CI 5.36, 47.15, P<0.01), and PNI ( OR=0.70, 95% CI 0.60, 0.81, P<0.01) were significantly correlated with the occurrence of early postoperative complications in elderly patients with hip fracture. The results of ROC curve analysis showed that mFI-5 score (AUC=0.85, 95% CI 0.80, 0.91) and PNI (AUC=0.87, 95% CI 0.82, 0.93) had moderate predictive efficacy, while the early warning efficacy of associated underlying diseases was low (AUC=0.54, 95% CI 0.45, 0.62). The combination of the above risk factors was more effective in predicting early postoperative complications in elderly patients with hip fracture (AUC=0.95, 95% CI 0.92, 0.98). Conclusions:The mFI-5 score, PNI, and associated underlying diseases before surgery are independent risk factors for early postoperative complications in elderly patients with hip fracture. The mFI-5 score and PNI have a higher predictive efficacy than associated diseases before surgery on the occurrence of early postoperative complications in elderly patients with hip fracture, while the combination of the above risk factors provides a significantly better predictive performance.
2.Clinical effect of indocyanine green angiography-assisted design and harvest of expanded flaps for scar reconstruction
Yanan HU ; Tingjun XIE ; Yuanbo LIU ; Shan ZHU ; Zengjie YANG ; Jia TIAN ; Cheng GAN ; Hu JIAO ; Shanshan LI ; Zixiang CHEN ; Lu ZHOU ; Bing HAN ; Shengyang JIN ; Yan ZENG ; Miao WANG ; Mengqing ZANG
Chinese Journal of Burns 2025;41(4):341-347
Objective:To investigate the clinical effect of indocyanine green angiography (ICGA)-assisted design and harvest of expanded flaps for scar reconstruction.Methods:This study was a retrospective observational study. From April 2019 to August 2023, 19 patients with scars (8 males, 11 females; aged 3-38 years) treated at the Plastic Surgery Hospital of Peking Union Medical College and Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences met the inclusion criteria. The scars were distributed on the head, face, trunk, and extremities. In stage Ⅰ surgery, skin soft tissue expanders were implanted in suitable areas around the scars for skin soft tissue expansion. In stage Ⅱ surgery, the scar tissue was excised, resulting in wound areas ranging from 100 to 210 cm 2, and expanded flaps were designed. ICGA was used to identify target perforators and their accompanying veins, and the flap design was adjusted to ensure the inclusion of complete arterial and venous axes. The expanded flap with an area of 120 to 240 cm2 was harvested using unilateral back-cut technique and transferred to the recipient site, and the donor site wound was sutured directly. The durations of the arterial and venous phases of ICGA during flap design were recorded. The length-to-width ratios of the back-cut flaps were calculated for different regions. After stage Ⅱ surgery, the blood perfusion and survival of the flap, the wound healing at the donor site, and the occurrence of complications were observed. During follow-up, the appearance, color, and texture of the patient's flap were observed. Results:The arterial phase of ICGA lasted 10-27 (18±5) s, and the venous phase lasted 78-116 (100±10) s. The length-to-width ratios of the back-cut flaps were 1.22±0.32, 1.63±0.12, and 1.15±0.21 for the head and neck, trunk, and limb regions, respectively. After stage Ⅱ surgery, one patient had a large area of insufficient blood perfusion in the flap. By comparing ICGA images before and after flap transfer, the sutures at the oral commissure were loosened, the blood flow of the flap was restored. The blood perfusion of the flaps in other patients was good. All flaps survived completely, with well-healed donor site wounds and no complications. During 0.5-14.0 months of follow-up, all flaps of patients demonstrated excellent appearance, with color and texture matching the surrounding skin.Conclusions:As a means of superficial blood flow visualization, ICGA can not only clearly show the microvascular distribution of the expanded flap before operation, assist in optimizing the design of the flap, but also evaluate the blood perfusion of the flap after operation, reduce the occurrence of complications, and provide a full-process navigation for the harvesting of expanded flaps, thereby improving the safety of flap transfer for scar reconstruction.
3.Research on Two-Dimensional Convolutional Neural Network Model for Near Infrared Spectroscopy Analysis Based on Competitive Adaptive Reweighted Sampling and Gramian Angular Difference Field
Xiao-Song ZENG ; Ke-Wei HUAN ; Xiao-Xi LIU ; Xian-Wen CAO ; Xue-Yan HAN
Chinese Journal of Analytical Chemistry 2025;53(6):955-966
Near infrared spectroscopy(NIRS)analysis technology has become an important process analysis tool in industrial and agricultural production,and has been widely used for qualitative and quantitative analysis in the fields of tobacco,agriculture,and pharmaceuticals.To address issues such as poor generalization ability and low prediction accuracy in NIRS modeling,a two-dimensional convolutional neural network(2DCNN)quantitative analysis model based on competitive adaptive reweighted sampling(CARS)and Gramian angular difference field(GADF)(CARS-GADF-2DCNN)was proposed.CARS-GADF-2DCNN used the CARS method to select an optimal wavelength set from the full spectrum,then employed GADF to encode the selection results into two-dimensional images,and finally used 2DCNN for prediction analysis.The 2DCNN model consisted of convolutional layers,parallel convolution modules,flattening layer,and fully connected layers.Simulation experiments were conducted on three public near-infrared(NIR)spectral datasets encompassing soil,tablet,and grain datasets to evaluate the CARS-GADF-2DCNN model.The results demonstrated that,compared to the one-dimensional convolutional neural network(1DCNN),the GADF-2DCNN model achieved 16.74%,23.40%,and 7.13%improvement in prediction accuracy for the soil,tablet,and grain datasets,respectively.Compared to GADF-2DCNN,VCPA-GADF-2DCNN,and IRIV-GADF-2DCNN models,the CARS-GADF-2DCNN model further improved prediction accuracy.For the soil dataset,prediction accuracy improved by 39.00%,30.78%and 4.13%;for the tablet dataset,the improvements were 9.52%,6.94%and 2.56%;for the grain dataset,the improvements were 20.57%,9.85%and 15.66%.In conclusion,CARS-GADF-2DCNN effectively selected the optimal wavelength subset from near infrared spectra,and revealed the latent features between different wavelengths.CARS-GADF-2DCNN addresses the issues of high complexity in prediction models and low prediction accuracy in near infrared spectral modeling,and could be effectively applied to near infrared spectral prediction analysis of different substances.
4.Construction and identification of recombinant fowl adenovirus 4 expressing Cap protein of goose astrovirus virus genotype 2
Xingyu LI ; Yan LI ; Panpan YANG ; Junjie LIU ; Mengjia XIANG ; Yutao ZHU ; Luyao QIU ; Qilong QIAO ; Boshun ZHANG ; Dexin BU ; Chenghao HAN ; Chunmei YU ; Yanfang CONG ; Zeng WANG ; Jianli LI ; Baiyu WANG ; Jun ZHAO
Chinese Journal of Veterinary Science 2025;45(3):443-448,513
To construct a recombinant fowl adenovirus 4(FAdV-4)expressing the Cap protein of goose astrovirus genotype 2(GoAstV-2),the expression cassette of Cap gene was inserted into the natural 1 966 bp deletion region of the FAdV-4 genome in the infectious clone p15A-cm-FAdV4-HNJZ.The resulted recombinant plasmid p15A-cm-FAdV4-HNJZ-Cap/GoAstV-2 was linearized with restriction enzyme and transfected into chicken hepatoma cell line(LMH)to rescue the recombinant FAdV-4 expressing the Cap protein of GoAstV-2,rF Ad V4-Cap/GoAstV-2.After 15 passages in LMH cells,the recombinant rFAdV4-Cap/GoAstV-2 was identified by PCR using primers flanking the insertion site of the Cap gene expression cassette and using viral genome DNA extracted from rFAdV4-Cap/GoAstV-2 infected LMH cells as template.LMH cells were in-fected with 15th passage rFAdV4-Cap/GoAstV-2 and indirect immunofluorescence was performed with a polyclonal antibody against Cap protein as the primary antibody.Western blot was carried out with lysates of rFAdV4-Cap/GoAstV-2 infected LMH cells.The in vitro replication dynamic of the 15th passage of the rFAdV4-Cap/GoAstV-2 was also investigated in LMH cells.The results demonstrated that the Cap gene of GoAstV-2 was presented in the genome of the recombinant vi-rus rF AdV4-Cap/Go Ast V-2,and could be expressed stably.The prepared recombinant virus in this study will lay a foundation for developing inactivated bivalent vaccine candidate against co-in-fection of FAdV-4 and GoAstV-2 in goose.
5.Water extract of Rehmannia glutinosa improves bleomycin-induced pulmonary fibrosis in mice and its metabolic mechanism
Zi-yu ZHANG ; Meng-nan ZENG ; Peng-li GUO ; Yu-han ZHANG ; Xiang-da LI ; Yan-xing WU ; Shuang-ying FU ; Zi-chang LIAN ; Wei-sheng FENG ; Xiao-ke ZHENG
Chinese Pharmacological Bulletin 2025;41(12):2315-2325
Aim To investigate the intervention effect of Rehmannia radix water extract on bleomycin(BLM)-induced pulmonary fibrosis in mice combined with metabolomics and to reveal the potential mechanism,in order to provide new ideas for clinical treatment of pul-monary fibrosis.Methods Male C57BL/6N mice were randomly divided into the control group,model group,pirfenidone group(positive control,PFD,270 mg·kg-1),and low dose(DH-L,4.55 g·kg-1)group,medium dose(DH-M,9.1 g·kg-1)group and high dose(DH-H,18.2 g·kg-1)group of Rehman-nia.Except for the control group,BLM(5 mg·kg-1)was instilled into the trachea to establish the model of pulmonary fibrosis in the other groups.The survival rate,lung index and blood oxygen saturation of mice in each group were evaluated.HE and Masson staining were used to observe the pathological changes of lung tissue.WBP was used to detect lung function.Flow cytometry was used to detect the apoptosis of primary lung cells,ROS and immune cells.ELISA was used to detect the levels of fibrosis markers and inflammatory factors(α-SMA,collagen Ⅰ,collagen Ⅲ,TGF-β1,TNF-α,IL-1 β,and IL-6).Biochemical method was employed to detect the contents of GSH-Px,T-SOD and MDA.Liquid chromatograph mass spectrometer(LC-MS)metabolomics was used to analyze the changes of serum metabolic profile.Results Water extract of Re-hmannia significantly increased the survival rate,oxy-gen saturation and lung function of mice with pulmona-ry fibrosis,reduced the lung coefficient,ameliorated pathological damage and collagen deposition in lung tissue,reduced the levels of apoptosis and oxidative stress,and down-regulated the levels of inflammatory factors in lung tissue.It regulated the levels of metabo-lites such as bile acid metabolism,sphingolipid metabo-lism,and unsaturated fatty acid metabolism.Conclu-sions Water extract of Rehmannia inhibits lung injury and collagen deposition in mice with pulmonary fibrosis by inhibiting inflammatory response,which may be a-chieved by regulating the levels of inflammatory factors through the metabolic pathways of bile acid and sphin-golipid.
6.Important factors affecting depression:modulatory effects of Cx43 on neuroinflammation
Xuan ZENG ; Zi-han YAN ; Zhi-feng TIAN ; Hong-bin WANG ; Qi-di AI ; Mei-yu LIN ; Xuan LIU ; Nai-hong CHEN ; Song-wei YANG ; Yan-tao YANG
Chinese Pharmacological Bulletin 2025;41(11):2027-2031
Numerous studies have shown that depression is main-ly associated with the abnormal expression of connexin 43(Cx43)in astrocytes(Astro)and its mediated dysfunction of gap junction(GJ).However,the molecular mechanism of post-translational modifications targeting Cx43 to regulate neuroin-flammation-associated depression is still unclear.Post-transla-tional modifications of Cx43 mainly include phosphorylation of specific amino acid sites by PKC,PKA,PKG,MAPK and PTK,and protein degradation of Cx43 through the K48/K63 polyubiq-uitylation and deubiquitination pathways,which ultimately lead to protein degradation through K48/K63 polyubiquitination and deubiquitination.These modifications are ultimately involved in the regulation of neuroinflammatory responses through the associ-ation of GJ function.In this paper,we systematically review the role of Cx43 post-translational modifications in neuroinflamma-tion,with the aim of further exploring the potential application of targeting these modifications to modulate the inflammatory re-sponse mechanism in improving depressive symptoms.
7.Important factors affecting depression:modulatory effects of Cx43 on neuroinflammation
Xuan ZENG ; Zi-han YAN ; Zhi-feng TIAN ; Hong-bin WANG ; Qi-di AI ; Mei-yu LIN ; Xuan LIU ; Nai-hong CHEN ; Song-wei YANG ; Yan-tao YANG
Chinese Pharmacological Bulletin 2025;41(11):2027-2031
Numerous studies have shown that depression is main-ly associated with the abnormal expression of connexin 43(Cx43)in astrocytes(Astro)and its mediated dysfunction of gap junction(GJ).However,the molecular mechanism of post-translational modifications targeting Cx43 to regulate neuroin-flammation-associated depression is still unclear.Post-transla-tional modifications of Cx43 mainly include phosphorylation of specific amino acid sites by PKC,PKA,PKG,MAPK and PTK,and protein degradation of Cx43 through the K48/K63 polyubiq-uitylation and deubiquitination pathways,which ultimately lead to protein degradation through K48/K63 polyubiquitination and deubiquitination.These modifications are ultimately involved in the regulation of neuroinflammatory responses through the associ-ation of GJ function.In this paper,we systematically review the role of Cx43 post-translational modifications in neuroinflamma-tion,with the aim of further exploring the potential application of targeting these modifications to modulate the inflammatory re-sponse mechanism in improving depressive symptoms.
8.Construction and identification of recombinant fowl adenovirus 4 expressing Cap protein of goose astrovirus virus genotype 2
Xingyu LI ; Yan LI ; Panpan YANG ; Junjie LIU ; Mengjia XIANG ; Yutao ZHU ; Luyao QIU ; Qilong QIAO ; Boshun ZHANG ; Dexin BU ; Chenghao HAN ; Chunmei YU ; Yanfang CONG ; Zeng WANG ; Jianli LI ; Baiyu WANG ; Jun ZHAO
Chinese Journal of Veterinary Science 2025;45(3):443-448,513
To construct a recombinant fowl adenovirus 4(FAdV-4)expressing the Cap protein of goose astrovirus genotype 2(GoAstV-2),the expression cassette of Cap gene was inserted into the natural 1 966 bp deletion region of the FAdV-4 genome in the infectious clone p15A-cm-FAdV4-HNJZ.The resulted recombinant plasmid p15A-cm-FAdV4-HNJZ-Cap/GoAstV-2 was linearized with restriction enzyme and transfected into chicken hepatoma cell line(LMH)to rescue the recombinant FAdV-4 expressing the Cap protein of GoAstV-2,rF Ad V4-Cap/GoAstV-2.After 15 passages in LMH cells,the recombinant rFAdV4-Cap/GoAstV-2 was identified by PCR using primers flanking the insertion site of the Cap gene expression cassette and using viral genome DNA extracted from rFAdV4-Cap/GoAstV-2 infected LMH cells as template.LMH cells were in-fected with 15th passage rFAdV4-Cap/GoAstV-2 and indirect immunofluorescence was performed with a polyclonal antibody against Cap protein as the primary antibody.Western blot was carried out with lysates of rFAdV4-Cap/GoAstV-2 infected LMH cells.The in vitro replication dynamic of the 15th passage of the rFAdV4-Cap/GoAstV-2 was also investigated in LMH cells.The results demonstrated that the Cap gene of GoAstV-2 was presented in the genome of the recombinant vi-rus rF AdV4-Cap/Go Ast V-2,and could be expressed stably.The prepared recombinant virus in this study will lay a foundation for developing inactivated bivalent vaccine candidate against co-in-fection of FAdV-4 and GoAstV-2 in goose.
9.Water extract of Rehmannia glutinosa improves bleomycin-induced pulmonary fibrosis in mice and its metabolic mechanism
Zi-yu ZHANG ; Meng-nan ZENG ; Peng-li GUO ; Yu-han ZHANG ; Xiang-da LI ; Yan-xing WU ; Shuang-ying FU ; Zi-chang LIAN ; Wei-sheng FENG ; Xiao-ke ZHENG
Chinese Pharmacological Bulletin 2025;41(12):2315-2325
Aim To investigate the intervention effect of Rehmannia radix water extract on bleomycin(BLM)-induced pulmonary fibrosis in mice combined with metabolomics and to reveal the potential mechanism,in order to provide new ideas for clinical treatment of pul-monary fibrosis.Methods Male C57BL/6N mice were randomly divided into the control group,model group,pirfenidone group(positive control,PFD,270 mg·kg-1),and low dose(DH-L,4.55 g·kg-1)group,medium dose(DH-M,9.1 g·kg-1)group and high dose(DH-H,18.2 g·kg-1)group of Rehman-nia.Except for the control group,BLM(5 mg·kg-1)was instilled into the trachea to establish the model of pulmonary fibrosis in the other groups.The survival rate,lung index and blood oxygen saturation of mice in each group were evaluated.HE and Masson staining were used to observe the pathological changes of lung tissue.WBP was used to detect lung function.Flow cytometry was used to detect the apoptosis of primary lung cells,ROS and immune cells.ELISA was used to detect the levels of fibrosis markers and inflammatory factors(α-SMA,collagen Ⅰ,collagen Ⅲ,TGF-β1,TNF-α,IL-1 β,and IL-6).Biochemical method was employed to detect the contents of GSH-Px,T-SOD and MDA.Liquid chromatograph mass spectrometer(LC-MS)metabolomics was used to analyze the changes of serum metabolic profile.Results Water extract of Re-hmannia significantly increased the survival rate,oxy-gen saturation and lung function of mice with pulmona-ry fibrosis,reduced the lung coefficient,ameliorated pathological damage and collagen deposition in lung tissue,reduced the levels of apoptosis and oxidative stress,and down-regulated the levels of inflammatory factors in lung tissue.It regulated the levels of metabo-lites such as bile acid metabolism,sphingolipid metabo-lism,and unsaturated fatty acid metabolism.Conclu-sions Water extract of Rehmannia inhibits lung injury and collagen deposition in mice with pulmonary fibrosis by inhibiting inflammatory response,which may be a-chieved by regulating the levels of inflammatory factors through the metabolic pathways of bile acid and sphin-golipid.
10.Risk factors and their predictive efficacy for early postoperative complications in elderly patients with hip fracture
Deen WAN ; Yongzhou YAN ; Feng SHUANG ; Hao LI ; Zhi ZENG ; Mudan HUANG ; Lu HAN ; Xiang PENG ; Di YANG ; Ming CHEN ; Qixin LIU
Chinese Journal of Trauma 2025;41(3):274-281
Objective:To investigate the risk factors and their predictive efficacy for early postoperative complications in elderly patients with hip fracture.Methods:A retrospective cohort study was conducted on the clinical data of 203 elderly patients with hip fracture admitted to the 908th Hospital of the Joint Logistics Support Force of the PLA and the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University from January 2022 to December 2023, including 54 males and 149 females, aged 65-100 years [(80.5±7.7)years]. There were 96 patients with femoral neck fracture and 107 patients with intertrochanteric fracture. According to the AO/OTA classification, the fracture was classified as type 31A in 107 patients and type 31B in 96. Among them, 81 patients were treated with proximal femoral nail antirotation (PFNA), 65 with semi-hip arthroplasty, 52 with total hip arthroplasty (THA), and 5 with closed reduction and cannulated nail internal fixation. The patients were divided into complication group ( n=65) and non-complication group ( n=138) according to whether complications (mainly including delirium, lung infection, stress ulcer, and deep vein thrombosis of the lower limbs) occurred within 15 days after surgery. The gender, age, age stage, educational level, cause of injury, associated underlying diseases before surgery, AO/OTA classification, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification, 5-factor modified frailty index (mFI-5) score, prognostic nutritional index (PNI), anesthesia method, operation method, operation time, intraoperative blood loss, length of hospital stay, etc., were recorded in the two groups. Univariate analysis and multivariate binary logistic regression analysis were used to evaluate the correlation between the above indexes and the occurrence of early postoperative complications in elderly patients with hip fracture and to determine their independent risk factors. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted and the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated to evaluate the predictive efficacy of each risk factor for the occurrence of early postoperative complications in elderly patients with hip fracture. Results:Univariate analysis showed a certain correlation between age, age stage, associated underlying diseases before surgery, AO/OTA classification, ASA classification, mFI-5 score, PNI, operation method, and length of hospital stay and the occurrence of early postoperative complications in elderly patients with hip fracture ( P<0.05), while gender, educational level, cause of injury, anesthesia method, operation time, and intraoperative blood loss were not correlated with the occurrence of early postoperative complications in elderly patients with hip fracture ( P>0.05). The results of multivariate binary logistic regression analysis showed that the associated underlying diseases before surgery ( OR=5.46, 95% CI 1.33, 22.39, P<0.05), mFI-5 score ( OR=15.90, 95% CI 5.36, 47.15, P<0.01), and PNI ( OR=0.70, 95% CI 0.60, 0.81, P<0.01) were significantly correlated with the occurrence of early postoperative complications in elderly patients with hip fracture. The results of ROC curve analysis showed that mFI-5 score (AUC=0.85, 95% CI 0.80, 0.91) and PNI (AUC=0.87, 95% CI 0.82, 0.93) had moderate predictive efficacy, while the early warning efficacy of associated underlying diseases was low (AUC=0.54, 95% CI 0.45, 0.62). The combination of the above risk factors was more effective in predicting early postoperative complications in elderly patients with hip fracture (AUC=0.95, 95% CI 0.92, 0.98). Conclusions:The mFI-5 score, PNI, and associated underlying diseases before surgery are independent risk factors for early postoperative complications in elderly patients with hip fracture. The mFI-5 score and PNI have a higher predictive efficacy than associated diseases before surgery on the occurrence of early postoperative complications in elderly patients with hip fracture, while the combination of the above risk factors provides a significantly better predictive performance.

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