Objective:To investigate the risk of falls in patients with Parkinson's disease and establish and validate a prediction model.Methods:We selected 372 patients with Parkinson's disease at Sichuan Nanchong Mental Health Centre from January 2022 to Septem-ber 2023.The patients were divided in a 7:3 ratio into model group(260 cases)and validation group(112 cases).According to previ-ous literature and suspected factors found in clinical practice,we collected general information(sex,age,etc.)and disease-related factors(the duration of Parkinson's disease,the type of medications taken,etc.)that may be associated with falls in patients with Parkinson's disease.In the model group,between patients with and those without falls within 1 year as reported by the patients or their family members,potential predictors for falls were determined through comparison of general information and disease-related factors,least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO)regression,and multivariable logistic regression.Based on the significant factors,a nomogram model was established and validated.Results:In the model group,81(31.15%)of the 260 patients experienced falls.According to the LASSO regression and multivariable logistic regression results,alcohol consumption,the type of medications,the score of the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale part Ⅲ(UPDRS-Ⅲ),the Berg Balance Scale score,the presence of arthritis,and the presence of osteoporosis were independent factors influenc-ing falls in patients with Parkinson's disease.The area under curve(AUC)of the receiver operator characteristic curve(ROC)for pre-dicting the risk of falls in patients with Parkinson's disease was 0.896(95%CI=0.856-0.935)in the model group and 0.883(95%CI=0.840-0.926)in the validation group.The calibration curve analysis results showed that the prediction curves of the model and valida-tion groups closely fitted the standard curves.The decision curve analysis results indicated that when the probability threshold for pre-dicting the fall risk in Parkinson's disease using the nomogram was 0.10-0.90,the net benefit rate of the patients was greater than 0.Conclusion:The risk of falls in patients with Parkinson's disease are mainly influenced by factors such as alcohol consumption and the type of medications.The nomogram model established in this study can be used to predict the fall risk in patients with Parkinson's disease.

Objective To provide scientific basis for layout planning and standardized cultivation the species of Chrysanthemum indicum complex in future periods,the potential ecological suitable areas was analyzed,.Methods By collecting distribution data of 1379 valid C.indicum complex species nationwide and 104 ecological factors,combined with MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software,the potential ecological distribution areas of C.indicum complex under 17 different climate scenarios was analyzed.Results Precipitation and solar radiation are key environmental variables affecting the suitable habitats of C.indicum complex.The most suitable regions for the growth of C.indicum complex was concentrated in Hubei(C.indicum L.),Shanxi(C.lavandulifolium),Jiangsu(C.nankingense),and Hubei(C.indicum var.aromaticum)regions.Under different scenarios,the suitable habitat area for C.indicum L.and C.lavandulifolium showed an overall decreasing trend,while those for C.indicum var.aromaticum and C.nankingense showed an expanding trend.The centroid shift indicates sensitivity of C.indicum complex to climate change.Conclusion The potential distribution areas of C.indicum complex is classified into ecological suitability levels,providing important reference for the sustainable use,introduction cultivation,and scientific zoning of related resources.

Objective To provide scientific basis for layout planning and standardized cultivation the species of Chrysanthemum indicum complex in future periods,the potential ecological suitable areas was analyzed,.Methods By collecting distribution data of 1379 valid C.indicum complex species nationwide and 104 ecological factors,combined with MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software,the potential ecological distribution areas of C.indicum complex under 17 different climate scenarios was analyzed.Results Precipitation and solar radiation are key environmental variables affecting the suitable habitats of C.indicum complex.The most suitable regions for the growth of C.indicum complex was concentrated in Hubei(C.indicum L.),Shanxi(C.lavandulifolium),Jiangsu(C.nankingense),and Hubei(C.indicum var.aromaticum)regions.Under different scenarios,the suitable habitat area for C.indicum L.and C.lavandulifolium showed an overall decreasing trend,while those for C.indicum var.aromaticum and C.nankingense showed an expanding trend.The centroid shift indicates sensitivity of C.indicum complex to climate change.Conclusion The potential distribution areas of C.indicum complex is classified into ecological suitability levels,providing important reference for the sustainable use,introduction cultivation,and scientific zoning of related resources.