1.Cost-utility analysis of anlotinib combined with penpulimab in first-line treatment of unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma
Wenying YAN ; Na YANG ; Ranran ZHANG ; Xinyue TAO ; Shengnan GAO ; Guoqiang LIU
China Pharmacy 2026;37(3):344-349
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of anlotinib combined with penpulimab versus sorafenib as first- line treatment for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC) from the perspective of China’s healthcare system. METHODS Based on data from the APOLLO study, a partitioned survival model was established with a 21-day model cycle to simulate patient survival status over 10 years under anlotinib combined with penpulimab regimen or sorafenib monotherapy. Quality-adjusted life year (QALY) was used as the core evaluation parameter to assess the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of different treatment regimens. Using 3 times China’s per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024 (287 247 yuan/QALY) as the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold, cost-utility analysis was performed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the treatment regimens. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to validate the robustness of the baseline analysis conclusion. Scenario analysis was performed to consider the impact of anlotinib and penpulimab assistance programs on the results; the price reduction of penpulimab to ensure the cost-effectiveness of the combination regimen was examined under varying WTP thresholds (specifically, 1, 2, and 3 times China’s per capita GDP in 2024). RESULTS The baseline analysis revealed that the ICER of anlotinib combined with penpulimab regimen relative to the sorafenib regimen was 338 611.20 yuan/QALY, which exceeded the WTP threshold set in this study. Univariate sensitivity analysis indicated that the utility value of progression free survival and penpulimab price significantly influenced the baseline analysis results. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis validated the robustness of the baseline results. The results of scenario analysis indicated that when considering the assistance programs for anlotinib and penpulimab, the obtained ICER values were all below the WTP threshold set at 3 times China’s per capita GDP in 2024. When the price of penpulimab was reduced by 58%, 35%, and 13%, the ICER values were below the WTP threshold, which was 1, 2 and 3 times the per capita GDP of China in 2024, respectively. CONCLUSIONS From the perspective of China’s healthcare system, anlotinib combined with penpulimab regimen for first-line treatment of uHCC lacks cost-effectiveness compared to sorafenib regimen. However, this conclusion would be reversed if the anlotinib and penpulimab assistance programs are taken into account or if the price of penpulimab is reduced by more than 13% and above.
2.Cost-utility analysis of amivantamab combined with lazertinib in the first-line treatment of EGFR-mutated advanced NSCLC
Ran LIU ; Shengnan GAO ; Yuxi ZHANG ; Ranran ZHANG ; Congxin LI ; Guoqiang LIU
China Pharmacy 2026;37(5):633-638
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of amivantamab combined with lazertinib (hereinafter referred to as “AL”) regimen as first-line treatment for EGFR -mutated advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) from the perspective of China’s healthcare system. METHODS A partitioned survival model was established based on updated data from the MARIPOSA study, with a 10-year time horizon and 28-day cycles. The primary outcome index was quality adjusted life year (QALY), and the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold was set at three times China’s per capita GDP in 2024 (287 247 yuan/QALY). Cost-utility analysis was used to calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of AL regimen versus osimertinib monotherapy regimen as first-line treatment for EGFR -mutated advanced NSCLC. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to test model robustness. Scena rio analyses were conducted to explore the impact of utility values for different health states on the outcomes and determine the required price reductions of amivantamab and lazertinib to achieve cost-effectiveness. RESULTS Compared with the osimertinib monotherapy regimen, the ICER for the AL regimen as first-line treatment for advanced EGFR -mutated NSCLC was 2 062 096.15 yuan/QALY, significantly exceeding the WTP threshold established in this study. One-way sensitivity analysis revealed that the utility value of progression-free survival state and the price of amivantamab were the primary factors influencing the ICER. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed that the AL regimen only became cost-effective when the WTP threshold was set at 2 050 000 yuan/QALY. Scenario analysis indicated that altering the utility value still rendered the AL regimen non-cost-effective. When amivantamab (350 mg) prices decreased by 80%, 85%, and 90% respectively, lazertinib (80 mg) prices would need to decrease by 95.97%, 40.63%, 5.29%, respectively. This would enable the AL regimen’s ICER to consistently fall within the WTP threshold established in this study. CONCLUSIONS At the WTP threshold established in this study, the AL regimen does not demonstrate cost-effectiveness for first-line treatment of advanced EGFR -mutated NSCLC compared to the osimertinib monotherapy regimen. Significant price reductions for both drugs would be required to alleviate the financial burden on patients.
3.Pharmacoeconomic evaluation of culmerciclib combined with fulvestrant in the second-line treatment of HR+/HER2− locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer
Ran LIU ; Shengnan GAO ; Congxin LI ; Yuxi ZHANG ; Ranran ZHANG ; Yue WANG ; Ziyi LIU ; Guoqiang LIU
China Pharmacy 2026;37(8):1033-1038
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of culmerciclib combined with fulvestrant as second-line treatment for patients with hormone receptor-positive(HR+)/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative (HER2–) locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer, within the context of the Chinese healthcare system. METHODS A partitioned survival model was established based on the CULMATE-1 study, with a simulation time horizon set at 15 years and a cycle length of 28 days. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of culmerciclib combined with fulvestrant versus fulvestrant monotherapy as second-line treatment for HR+/HER2– breast cancer was calculated. One-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were performed to assess the robustness of the model. Meanwhile, scenario analysis of culmerciclib price reduction was conducted; the required price reduction and price to reach the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold in this study were calculated. RESULTS The results of the base-case analysis indicated that, compared with the fulvestrant monotherapy regimen, culmerciclib combined with fulvestrant yielded an additional 0.823 quality-adjusted life year (QALY), with a corresponding ICER of 371 696.26 yuan/QALY, which exceeded the WTP threshold (199 330 yuan/QALY). The results of the univariate sensitivity analysis indicated that the cost of culmerciclib, the discount rate, the utility values for progression disease and progression free survival status were significant factors influencing the ICER; both the univariate sensitivity analysis and the probabilistic sensitivity analysis validated the robustness of the model results. Scenario analysis indicated that when the price of culmerciclib was reduced by 30%, 55% and 85% respectively, the corresponding ICER values fell below 3, 2, and 1 times China’s per capita GDP in 2025, with the probability of cost-effectiveness being 3.00%, 94.90%, 100%. When the cost of culmerciclib (60 mg) was reduced by 52.6% to 50.96 yuan, the ICER value met the WTP threshold established in this study. CONCLUSIONS When the WTP threshold is set at twice China’s per capita GDP in 2025, second-line treatment with culmerciclib combined with fulvestrant for HR+/HER2– locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer does not exhibit cost-effectiveness advantage over fulvestrant monotherapy. Therefore, a reasonable price reduction is required to alleviate the financial burden on patients.
4.Cost-effectiveness analysis of onradivir and oseltamivir for the treatment of influenza A in adults
Yongzan ZHANG ; Shengnan GAO ; Xianying WANG ; Guoqiang LIU
China Pharmacy 2026;37(12):1579-1583
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of onradivir versus oseltamivir in the treatment of influenza A in adults from the perspective of the Chinese healthcare system. METHODS Based on data from a phase Ⅲ clinical trial (NCT04683406), a decision tree model was constructed to simulate the efficacy and cost of using onradivir versus oseltamivir in treating adult patients with influenza A, with a cycle length of 5 days and a simulation period of 29 days. The two drug prices correspond to the median listing prices published by Yaozhi Network and the national negotiated prices. Patient characteristics and influenza utility values were derived from the phase Ⅲ clinical trial of onradivir, and medical costs and complication utility values were sourced from published literature. Quality-adjusted life year(QALY) was used as an effect indicator, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio(ICER) of onradivir versus oseltamivir was calculated, using China’s per capita disposable income in 2025 (43 377 yuan) as the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the results. One-way and probabilistic analyses were performed to verify the robustness of the results. RESULTS Compared with the oseltamivir regimen, the onradivir regimen yielded an incremental 0.000 67 QALY with direct medical cost savings of 12.41 yuan, thus being a dominant strategy. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that the utility values on day 15 of oseltamivir treatment, the incidence of influenza pneumonia in the oseltamivir group and the costs of the two drugs significantly affected the results. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated that at the pre-specified WTP threshold, onradivir had a 70.6% probability of being cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS At a WTP threshold set at the 2025 per capita disposable income of China, compared with oseltamivir, onradivir can improve the health outcomes of adult patients with influenza A and reduce costs, demonstrating greater cost-effectiveness.
5.Research progress of meibomian gland dysfunction-related dry eye
Jianbo ZHONG ; Guoqiang ZENG ; Yi ZHANG ; Xiaoyan DOU ; Wanmei TANG ; Kunling CHEN ; Li CAI
International Eye Science 2025;25(2):259-263
In recent years, with the endless emergence of meibomian gland dysfunction(MGD)diagnostic equipment, rich treatment methods, and in-depth clinical and basic research on MGD at home and abroad, the understanding of MGD has entered a new stage. MGD-related dry eye is considered to be the main cause of lipid abnormal dry eye, and its occurrence and development is a chronic and multi-factorial pathological process. This article reviews the pathogenesis, imaging analysis and clinical treatment progress of MGD-related dry eye, in order to provide scientific evidence and ideas for clinical diagnosis and therapy of MGD-related dry eye.
6.Cost-utility analysis of benmelstobart plus anlotinib and chemotherapy as first-line treatment for extensive-stage small cell lung cancer
Bing FENG ; Ning GAO ; Shengnan GAO ; Yuxi ZHANG ; Ranran ZHANG ; Guoqiang LIU
China Pharmacy 2025;36(5):579-583
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-utility of benmelstobart combined with anlotinib and chemotherapy as first-line treatment for extensive-stage small cell lung cancer (ES-SCLC) from the perspective of China’s healthcare system. METHODS Based on the data from the ETER 701 study, a partitioned survival model was constructed with a cycle of 3 weeks to simulate the total cost, quality-adjusted life years (QALY), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) over 10 years for patients with ES- SCLC treated with benmelstobart plus anlotinib and chemotherapy, or chemotherapy alone. One-way sensitivity analysis and probability sensitivity analysis were performed to verify the robustness of the simulation results. The willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold was set at 3 times the per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of China in 2023, which amounted to 268 074 yuan/QALY. RESULTS Compared with chemotherapy alone, benmelstobart combined with anlotinib and chemotherapy gained 0.438 QALY more at the cost of 403 505.55 yuan more, with an ICER of 922 031.37 yuan/QALY, which was higher than the WTP threshold set in this study. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that benmelstobart’s cost and utility value of the progression-free survival state had a greater impact on the ICER value; probabilistic sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of the model; only when the price of benmelstobart was reduced by 75.4%, the combined regimen would be cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS The first-line treatment of ES-SCLC with benmelstobart combined with anlotinib and chemotherapy is not cost-effective from the perspective of China’s healthcare system at present.
7.Expression and clinical significance of YKL-40 in animal models of chronic renal failure complicating heart dysfunction
Jing BAI ; Hang REN ; Junqi ZHANG ; Guoqiang LIU ; Guiying LI
Chongqing Medicine 2025;54(9):2041-2047
Objective To construct the animal model,and to study the expression and clinical signifi-cance of YKL-40 in the progress of chronic renal failure complicating cardiac dysfunction.Methods C57BL/6N mice were chosen as the experimental subjects and divided into the blank control(BC)group,renal failure(RF)group,heart failure(HF)group and renal combined heart failure group.The renal failure model was constructed by adenine perfusion.The heart failure model was constructed by subcutaneous injection of isopro-terenol.The renal failure and heart failure group model was established by adenine perfusion combined with subcutaneous injection of isoproterenol.The validity of constructed models was evaluated by creatinine(SCr),urea nitrogen(BUN)and BNP levels,renal ultrasound and ultrasonic cardiogram examination results.The levels of C-reactive protein(CRP)and YKL-40 were detected by ELISA,and the YKL-40 mRNA expression level in kidney and heart tissues was measure by RT-qPCR.The Image J software was used to calculate the collagen fiber area of the Masson staining results.Results Except the blank control group,the mice weights in the other 3 groups were decreased,and the differences were statistically significant(P<0.05).SCr,BUN,average renal cross sectional area,average renal volume and renal CVF in the renal failure group and renal combined heart failure group were higher than those in the blank control group and heart failure group(P<0.05).The levels of LVEF,LVCO,LVSV,LVFS,LVPWd and LVPWs in the heart failure group and renal combined heart failure group were lower than those in the blank control group and renal failure group(P<0.05).LVEF and LVFS in the renal combined heart failure group were higher than those in the heart failure group(P<0.05).Compared with the blank control group,the serum CRP and YKL-40 levels in the other three groups were higher(P<0.05);the CRP and YKL-40 levels in the renal combined heart failure group were higher than those in the renal failure group and heart failure group(P<0.05).In the myocardial tis-sues,the YKL-40 mRNA expression level in the heart failure group and renal combined heart failure group was higher than those in the blank control group and renal failure group(P<0.05).YKL-40 had the correla-tion with CRP(r=0.88,P<0.05).Serum YKL-40 had the correlation with renal tissue YKL-40 gene expres-sion(r=0.77,P<0.05),and had the correlation with the renal tissue CVF(r=0.89,P<0.05).Conclusion YKL-40 has the influencing effect on renal failure complicating heart dysfunction,and could serve as the biomarker to mo-nitor the renal insufficiency complicating heart function abnormality.
8.Mechanism of postoperative abdominal adhesion formation and therapeutic prospect of mesenchymal stem cell exosomes
Xingzhou ZHANG ; Ming WEI ; Guoqiang DONG ; Wei DU ; Yiwen LUO ; Nan ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2025;29(1):147-155
BACKGROUND:The formation of postoperative abdominal adhesions is a complicated process,and the prevention of postoperative adhesions is an urgent problem in clinic. OBJECTIVE:To analyze the mechanism of adhesion at cellular and molecular levels,and to provide theoretical basis for the prevention and treatment of adhesion by mesenchymal stem cell exosomes. METHODS:"Abdominal adhesion,pelvic adhesion,postoperative adhesion,epithelial mesenchymal transformation,mesenchymal stem cells,stem cell exosomes,mesenchymal stem cell exosomes"were selected as Chinese and English search terms.We searched PubMed,CNKI,and Chinese biomedical literature and screened relevant articles on postoperative abdominal adhesion and mesenchymal stem cell exosomal intervention published from inception to August 2023.After systematic analysis,54 articles were finally included for the review. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)Any pathological factors such as peritoneal inflammation,mechanical injury,tissue ischemia,and foreign body implantation cause peritoneal surface injury,resulting in postoperative abdominal adhesion.The formation process of adhesion includes the interaction of peritoneal mesothelial cell repair,inflammatory response,fibrinolytic system,coagulation pathway and other processes,involving a variety of cytokines and signaling pathways.Wnt/β-catenin pathway can induce fibrosis and angiogenesis,and cooperate with transforming growth factor-β/Smads signaling pathway to stimulate fibroblast proliferation and cause peritoneal fibrosis.Meanwhile,nuclear factor-κB signaling pathway up-regulates the expression of cellular inflammatory factors,promotes fibroblast proliferation,and plays a key role in the process of tissue fibrosis.(2)The paracrine function of stem cells is an important direction of molecular intervention in abdominal adhesions based on regenerative medicine.It can participate in a variety of complex cytokines and signaling pathways involved in abdominal adhesions.(3)Compared with traditional methods for treating abdominal adhesions,mesenchymal stem cell exosome has biological activity and is safe to use.Mesenchymal stem cell exosomes without special culture and expansion have lower immunogenicity,longer stability and other advantages,can guide a normal repair and healing through a variety of ways.(4)Mesenchymal stem cell exosome has been proven to be involved in regulating the above processes of adhesion formation in previous studies,showing potential application prospects in clinical studies.However,further clinical studies are needed to explore appropriate treatment options for mesenchymal stem cell exosomes to address the problem of clinical translation.
9.Meteorological factor-driven prediction of high-use days of budesonide: construction and comparison of ensemble learning models
Qitao CHEN ; Yue ZHOU ; Xiaojun ZHANG ; Jingwen NI ; Guoqiang SUN ; Fenfei GAO ; Lizhen XIA ; Zihao LI
China Pharmacy 2025;36(21):2723-2726
OBJECTIVE To construct ensemble learning models for predicting high-use days of budesonide based on meteorological factors, thereby providing reference for hospital pharmacy management. METHODS Meteorological data for 2024 and outpatient budesonide usage data from the jurisdiction of Sanming Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine were collected. High-use days were defined as the 75th percentile of outpatient budesonide usage, and a corresponding dataset was established. The prediction task was formulated as a classification problem, and three ensemble learning models were developed: Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Histogram-based Gradient Boosting Classifier. Model performance was evaluated using accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and log-loss. Model interpretability was analyzed using Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP). RESULTS The Histogram-based Gradient Boosting Classifier achieved the best performance (accuracy=0.75, F1-score=0.48), followed by XGBoost (accuracy=0.74, F1-score=0.43) and Random Forest (accuracy=0.72, F1-score=0.22). SHAP results suggested that the prediction results of the last two models have the highest correction. CONCLUSIONS Ensemble learning models can effectively predict high-use days of budesonide, with the Histogram- based Gradient Boosting Classifier demonstrating the best predictive performance. Low temperature, high humidity, and low atmospheric pressure show significant positive impacts on the prediction of daily budesonide usage.
10.Disease burden of coal workers' pneumoconiosis in China from 1990 to 2021 and projection of future trends: Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study of 2021
Guoqiang DONG ; Ying ZHANG ; Lichun QIAO ; Miaoqian LI ; Ronghui LEI ; Xiangyu FAN ; Ying LIU ; Xinxin WEI ; Jing HAN
Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine 2025;42(10):1162-1169
Background China is a major coal producer and consumer country in the world. Coal workers' pneumoconiosis (CWP) is a primary factor endangering the occupational health of coal miners. Research on the disease burden of CWP and its changing trend is significant for disease prevention & control and associated policies. Objective To analyze the disease burden of CWP in China from 1990 to 2021 and its changing trend, and predict the disease burden from 2022 to 2035. Methods Using the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) database of 2021, numbers ofincident cases, prevalent cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) as well as crude and age-standardized rates of CWP in China were retrieved. Linear regression model was used to calculate the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of the age-standardized rates. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the temporal trend of disease burden and the disease burden of different sexes and age groups, and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to forecast the trend of CWP disease burden. Results In 1990, the incident, prevalent, and deaths cases of CWP in China were

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