1.Cost-utility analysis of anlotinib combined with penpulimab in first-line treatment of unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma
Wenying YAN ; Na YANG ; Ranran ZHANG ; Xinyue TAO ; Shengnan GAO ; Guoqiang LIU
China Pharmacy 2026;37(3):344-349
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of anlotinib combined with penpulimab versus sorafenib as first- line treatment for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC) from the perspective of China’s healthcare system. METHODS Based on data from the APOLLO study, a partitioned survival model was established with a 21-day model cycle to simulate patient survival status over 10 years under anlotinib combined with penpulimab regimen or sorafenib monotherapy. Quality-adjusted life year (QALY) was used as the core evaluation parameter to assess the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of different treatment regimens. Using 3 times China’s per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024 (287 247 yuan/QALY) as the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold, cost-utility analysis was performed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the treatment regimens. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to validate the robustness of the baseline analysis conclusion. Scenario analysis was performed to consider the impact of anlotinib and penpulimab assistance programs on the results; the price reduction of penpulimab to ensure the cost-effectiveness of the combination regimen was examined under varying WTP thresholds (specifically, 1, 2, and 3 times China’s per capita GDP in 2024). RESULTS The baseline analysis revealed that the ICER of anlotinib combined with penpulimab regimen relative to the sorafenib regimen was 338 611.20 yuan/QALY, which exceeded the WTP threshold set in this study. Univariate sensitivity analysis indicated that the utility value of progression free survival and penpulimab price significantly influenced the baseline analysis results. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis validated the robustness of the baseline results. The results of scenario analysis indicated that when considering the assistance programs for anlotinib and penpulimab, the obtained ICER values were all below the WTP threshold set at 3 times China’s per capita GDP in 2024. When the price of penpulimab was reduced by 58%, 35%, and 13%, the ICER values were below the WTP threshold, which was 1, 2 and 3 times the per capita GDP of China in 2024, respectively. CONCLUSIONS From the perspective of China’s healthcare system, anlotinib combined with penpulimab regimen for first-line treatment of uHCC lacks cost-effectiveness compared to sorafenib regimen. However, this conclusion would be reversed if the anlotinib and penpulimab assistance programs are taken into account or if the price of penpulimab is reduced by more than 13% and above.
2.Cost-utility analysis of amivantamab combined with lazertinib in the first-line treatment of EGFR-mutated advanced NSCLC
Ran LIU ; Shengnan GAO ; Yuxi ZHANG ; Ranran ZHANG ; Congxin LI ; Guoqiang LIU
China Pharmacy 2026;37(5):633-638
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of amivantamab combined with lazertinib (hereinafter referred to as “AL”) regimen as first-line treatment for EGFR -mutated advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) from the perspective of China’s healthcare system. METHODS A partitioned survival model was established based on updated data from the MARIPOSA study, with a 10-year time horizon and 28-day cycles. The primary outcome index was quality adjusted life year (QALY), and the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold was set at three times China’s per capita GDP in 2024 (287 247 yuan/QALY). Cost-utility analysis was used to calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of AL regimen versus osimertinib monotherapy regimen as first-line treatment for EGFR -mutated advanced NSCLC. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to test model robustness. Scena rio analyses were conducted to explore the impact of utility values for different health states on the outcomes and determine the required price reductions of amivantamab and lazertinib to achieve cost-effectiveness. RESULTS Compared with the osimertinib monotherapy regimen, the ICER for the AL regimen as first-line treatment for advanced EGFR -mutated NSCLC was 2 062 096.15 yuan/QALY, significantly exceeding the WTP threshold established in this study. One-way sensitivity analysis revealed that the utility value of progression-free survival state and the price of amivantamab were the primary factors influencing the ICER. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed that the AL regimen only became cost-effective when the WTP threshold was set at 2 050 000 yuan/QALY. Scenario analysis indicated that altering the utility value still rendered the AL regimen non-cost-effective. When amivantamab (350 mg) prices decreased by 80%, 85%, and 90% respectively, lazertinib (80 mg) prices would need to decrease by 95.97%, 40.63%, 5.29%, respectively. This would enable the AL regimen’s ICER to consistently fall within the WTP threshold established in this study. CONCLUSIONS At the WTP threshold established in this study, the AL regimen does not demonstrate cost-effectiveness for first-line treatment of advanced EGFR -mutated NSCLC compared to the osimertinib monotherapy regimen. Significant price reductions for both drugs would be required to alleviate the financial burden on patients.
3.Pharmacoeconomic evaluation of culmerciclib combined with fulvestrant in the second-line treatment of HR+/HER2− locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer
Ran LIU ; Shengnan GAO ; Congxin LI ; Yuxi ZHANG ; Ranran ZHANG ; Yue WANG ; Ziyi LIU ; Guoqiang LIU
China Pharmacy 2026;37(8):1033-1038
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of culmerciclib combined with fulvestrant as second-line treatment for patients with hormone receptor-positive(HR+)/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative (HER2–) locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer, within the context of the Chinese healthcare system. METHODS A partitioned survival model was established based on the CULMATE-1 study, with a simulation time horizon set at 15 years and a cycle length of 28 days. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of culmerciclib combined with fulvestrant versus fulvestrant monotherapy as second-line treatment for HR+/HER2– breast cancer was calculated. One-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were performed to assess the robustness of the model. Meanwhile, scenario analysis of culmerciclib price reduction was conducted; the required price reduction and price to reach the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold in this study were calculated. RESULTS The results of the base-case analysis indicated that, compared with the fulvestrant monotherapy regimen, culmerciclib combined with fulvestrant yielded an additional 0.823 quality-adjusted life year (QALY), with a corresponding ICER of 371 696.26 yuan/QALY, which exceeded the WTP threshold (199 330 yuan/QALY). The results of the univariate sensitivity analysis indicated that the cost of culmerciclib, the discount rate, the utility values for progression disease and progression free survival status were significant factors influencing the ICER; both the univariate sensitivity analysis and the probabilistic sensitivity analysis validated the robustness of the model results. Scenario analysis indicated that when the price of culmerciclib was reduced by 30%, 55% and 85% respectively, the corresponding ICER values fell below 3, 2, and 1 times China’s per capita GDP in 2025, with the probability of cost-effectiveness being 3.00%, 94.90%, 100%. When the cost of culmerciclib (60 mg) was reduced by 52.6% to 50.96 yuan, the ICER value met the WTP threshold established in this study. CONCLUSIONS When the WTP threshold is set at twice China’s per capita GDP in 2025, second-line treatment with culmerciclib combined with fulvestrant for HR+/HER2– locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer does not exhibit cost-effectiveness advantage over fulvestrant monotherapy. Therefore, a reasonable price reduction is required to alleviate the financial burden on patients.
4.Cost-utility analysis of benmelstobart plus anlotinib and chemotherapy as first-line treatment for extensive-stage small cell lung cancer
Bing FENG ; Ning GAO ; Shengnan GAO ; Yuxi ZHANG ; Ranran ZHANG ; Guoqiang LIU
China Pharmacy 2025;36(5):579-583
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-utility of benmelstobart combined with anlotinib and chemotherapy as first-line treatment for extensive-stage small cell lung cancer (ES-SCLC) from the perspective of China’s healthcare system. METHODS Based on the data from the ETER 701 study, a partitioned survival model was constructed with a cycle of 3 weeks to simulate the total cost, quality-adjusted life years (QALY), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) over 10 years for patients with ES- SCLC treated with benmelstobart plus anlotinib and chemotherapy, or chemotherapy alone. One-way sensitivity analysis and probability sensitivity analysis were performed to verify the robustness of the simulation results. The willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold was set at 3 times the per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of China in 2023, which amounted to 268 074 yuan/QALY. RESULTS Compared with chemotherapy alone, benmelstobart combined with anlotinib and chemotherapy gained 0.438 QALY more at the cost of 403 505.55 yuan more, with an ICER of 922 031.37 yuan/QALY, which was higher than the WTP threshold set in this study. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that benmelstobart’s cost and utility value of the progression-free survival state had a greater impact on the ICER value; probabilistic sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of the model; only when the price of benmelstobart was reduced by 75.4%, the combined regimen would be cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS The first-line treatment of ES-SCLC with benmelstobart combined with anlotinib and chemotherapy is not cost-effective from the perspective of China’s healthcare system at present.
5.Cost-utility analysis of capecitabine metronomic chemotherapy combined with aromatase inhibitor as first-line treatment for HR+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer
Ranran ZHANG ; Guoqiang LIU ; Yuxi ZHANG ; Shengnan GAO ; Ning GAO ; Bing FENG ; Ran LIU ; Qian LI
China Pharmacy 2025;36(15):1893-1898
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of capecitabine metronomic chemotherapy combined with aromatase inhibitor (AI) versus AI monotherapy as first-line treatment for hormone receptor-positive (HR+)/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative (HER2-) metastatic breast cancer, thereby providing evidence-based support for clinical therapeutic decision- making and healthcare policy formulation. METHODS Based on the MECCA trial, a partitioned survival model was constructed using a 4-week cycle length to simulate outcomes over patients’ lifetime. The model outputs included total costs, quality-adjusted life year (QALY), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Sensitivity analyses were performed to validate the robustness of base-case results, while scenario analyses examined the cost-effectiveness of both treatment strategies under 10-year, 20-year, and lifetime time horizons. RESULTS With the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold set at 1 times China’s 2024 per capita gross domestic product (GDP) (95 749 yuan/QALY), patients receiving capecitabine metronomic chemotherapy combined with AI regimen gained incremental utility (0.66 QALYs) while incurring higher costs, with ICER of 27 684.85 yuan/QALY. Results of the one-way sensitivity analysis showed that factors with significant impacts on ICER included the cost discount rate, drug costs of the capecitabine metronomic chemotherapy combined with AI group, utility value in the progression-free survival state, follow-up costs, and treatment costs in the subsequent stablephase. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated that when the WTP threshold ≥49 250 yuan/QALY, the capecitabine metronomic chemotherapy combined with AI regimen had a 100% probability of being cost-effective. Scenario analysis results demonstrated that capecitabine metronomic chemotherapy combined with AI regimen was more cost-effective than the AI alone regimen across 10-year, 20-year, and lifetime study horizons. CONCLUSIONS Under the premise that the WTP threshold is set at 1 times China’s per capita GDP in 2024, capecitabine metronomic chemotherapy combined with AI regimen is more cost-effective than the AI alone regimen as the first-line treatment for HR+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer.
6.Cost-effectiveness analysis of sacituzumab tirumotecan versus single-agent chemotherapy in second-line and later-line treatment for metastatic triple-negative breast cancer
Ranran ZHANG ; Yuxi ZHANG ; Shengnan GAO ; Bing FENG ; Ning GAO ; Guoqiang LIU
China Pharmacy 2025;36(16):2024-2029
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of sacituzumab tirumotecan (ST) versus chemotherapy treatment physician’s choice (TPC) as second-line and later-line treatment for metastatic triple-negative breast cancer (mTNBC) from the perspective of China’s healthcare system. METHODS A partitioned survival model was constructed based on the OptiTROP-Breast 01 trial, with a cycle length of 4 weeks and a time horizon of 10 years, applying a 5% discount rate. Quality adjusted life year (QALY) and costs were used as outcome measures, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of ST versus TPC for second-line and later-line treatment of mTNBC was calculated. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to validate the robustness of the base-case results. RESULTS At a willingness-to-pay threshold (WTP) of 3 times China’s 2024 per capita gross domestic product (GDP) (287 247 yuan/QALY), patients receiving ST gained incremental utility (0.42 QALY) at a higher cost, yielding an ICER of 205 562.07 yuan/QALY, which was lower than WTP, indicating that ST was more cost-effective compared to TPC. One-way sensitivity analysis revealed that key factors influencing the ICER included the utility value of progression-free survival and the price of ST. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis showed that the base-case results were robust. CONCLUSIONS From the perspective of China’s healthcare system, at a WTP of 3 times China’s per capita GDP, ST is more cost-effective than TPC as second-line and later-line treatment for mTNBC.
7.Calcium channel modulators in the treatment of diabetic peripheral neuropathic pain:a rapid health technology assessment
Ning GAO ; Bing FENG ; Shengnan GAO ; Ranran ZHANG ; Yuxi ZHANG ; Guoqiang LIU
China Pharmacy 2025;36(8):1001-1007
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the efficacy, safety and economics of calcium channel modulators in the treatment of diabetic peripheral neuropathic pain (DPNP), and provide evidence-based evidence for clinical drug selection and decision-making. METHODS PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, CNKI, Wanfang data, VIP net, CBM and official websites of foreign health technology assessment (HTA) institutions were systematically searched to collect HTA reports, systematic review/meta-analyses, and pharmacoeconomic studies of pregabalin, gabapentin, crisugabalin, and mirogabalin for the treatment of DPNP. The timeframe for all searches was from the inception to June 2024. After data extraction and quality assessment, the results of the included studies were analyzed descriptively. RESULTS A total of 16 articles were included, involving 1 HTA report, 7 systematic reviews/meta- analyses, and 8 pharmacoeconomic studies. No studies on crisugabalin were retrieved. Compared with placebo, both pregabalin and mirogabalin reduced end point pain scores and increased the proportion of patients with ≥30% and/or ≥50% reduction in pain scores. Pregabalin also improved patient global impression of change (PGIC). Gabapentin was similar to placebo in reducing end point pain scores and increasing the proportion of patients with ≥30% and/or ≥50% reduction in pain scores, but gabapentin improved PGIC of patients. Compared with pregabalin, mirogabalin was more effective in the treatment of pain. The safety of pregabalin and mirogabalin was similar, and compared with placebo, both pregabalin and mirogabalin increased the risk of common adverse reactions such as dizziness and somnolence. The safety of gabapentin was similar to placebo and duloxetine. Compared with duloxetine, pregabalin and gabapentin were not cost-effective. Compared with gabapentin, pregabalin was cost-effective. Mirogabalin was cost-effective, as compared with placebo and pregabalin. CONCLUSIONS Pregabalin and mirogabalin are effective in the treatment of DPNP, the efficacy of mirogabalin is better than pregabalin, and the safety is similar between them. The economic conclusions vary from country to country, pending a pharmacoeconomic study based on our population.
8.Disease burden of coal workers' pneumoconiosis in China from 1990 to 2021 and projection of future trends: Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study of 2021
Guoqiang DONG ; Ying ZHANG ; Lichun QIAO ; Miaoqian LI ; Ronghui LEI ; Xiangyu FAN ; Ying LIU ; Xinxin WEI ; Jing HAN
Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine 2025;42(10):1162-1169
Background China is a major coal producer and consumer country in the world. Coal workers' pneumoconiosis (CWP) is a primary factor endangering the occupational health of coal miners. Research on the disease burden of CWP and its changing trend is significant for disease prevention & control and associated policies. Objective To analyze the disease burden of CWP in China from 1990 to 2021 and its changing trend, and predict the disease burden from 2022 to 2035. Methods Using the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) database of 2021, numbers ofincident cases, prevalent cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) as well as crude and age-standardized rates of CWP in China were retrieved. Linear regression model was used to calculate the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of the age-standardized rates. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the temporal trend of disease burden and the disease burden of different sexes and age groups, and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to forecast the trend of CWP disease burden. Results In 1990, the incident, prevalent, and deaths cases of CWP in China were
9.Expression and clinical significance of YKL-40 in animal models of chronic renal failure complicating heart dysfunction
Jing BAI ; Hang REN ; Junqi ZHANG ; Guoqiang LIU ; Guiying LI
Chongqing Medicine 2025;54(9):2041-2047
Objective To construct the animal model,and to study the expression and clinical signifi-cance of YKL-40 in the progress of chronic renal failure complicating cardiac dysfunction.Methods C57BL/6N mice were chosen as the experimental subjects and divided into the blank control(BC)group,renal failure(RF)group,heart failure(HF)group and renal combined heart failure group.The renal failure model was constructed by adenine perfusion.The heart failure model was constructed by subcutaneous injection of isopro-terenol.The renal failure and heart failure group model was established by adenine perfusion combined with subcutaneous injection of isoproterenol.The validity of constructed models was evaluated by creatinine(SCr),urea nitrogen(BUN)and BNP levels,renal ultrasound and ultrasonic cardiogram examination results.The levels of C-reactive protein(CRP)and YKL-40 were detected by ELISA,and the YKL-40 mRNA expression level in kidney and heart tissues was measure by RT-qPCR.The Image J software was used to calculate the collagen fiber area of the Masson staining results.Results Except the blank control group,the mice weights in the other 3 groups were decreased,and the differences were statistically significant(P<0.05).SCr,BUN,average renal cross sectional area,average renal volume and renal CVF in the renal failure group and renal combined heart failure group were higher than those in the blank control group and heart failure group(P<0.05).The levels of LVEF,LVCO,LVSV,LVFS,LVPWd and LVPWs in the heart failure group and renal combined heart failure group were lower than those in the blank control group and renal failure group(P<0.05).LVEF and LVFS in the renal combined heart failure group were higher than those in the heart failure group(P<0.05).Compared with the blank control group,the serum CRP and YKL-40 levels in the other three groups were higher(P<0.05);the CRP and YKL-40 levels in the renal combined heart failure group were higher than those in the renal failure group and heart failure group(P<0.05).In the myocardial tis-sues,the YKL-40 mRNA expression level in the heart failure group and renal combined heart failure group was higher than those in the blank control group and renal failure group(P<0.05).YKL-40 had the correla-tion with CRP(r=0.88,P<0.05).Serum YKL-40 had the correlation with renal tissue YKL-40 gene expres-sion(r=0.77,P<0.05),and had the correlation with the renal tissue CVF(r=0.89,P<0.05).Conclusion YKL-40 has the influencing effect on renal failure complicating heart dysfunction,and could serve as the biomarker to mo-nitor the renal insufficiency complicating heart function abnormality.
10.Clinical results of 100 cases of modified eversion carotid endarterectomy
Leng NI ; Wenzhuo LIAN ; Rong ZENG ; Xiao DI ; Xitao SONG ; Fangda LI ; Liqiang CUI ; Guoqiang SUN ; Yuehong ZHENG ; Changwei LIU
Chinese Journal of Surgery 2024;62(12):1143-1149
Objective:The primary goal of this study is to explore the safety and effectiveness of a new modified eversion carotid endarterectomy (MECEA).Methods:This is a retrospective case series study. One hundred patients were consecutively treated with MECEA by the same operator at Department of Vascular Surgery,Peking Union Medical College Hospital from January 2019 to December 2023. There were 77 males and 23 females. The age was (66.0±8.6)years (range: 39 to 85 years). Twenty-four (24.0%) patients were symptomatic with the degree of carotid stenosis over 50%,76 patients (76.0%) were asymptomatic with the degree of stenosis over 70%. All these patients meet the indication of carotid endarterectomy. The main difference between MECEA and traditional eversion carotid endarterectomy was the anterior,lateral,and posterior walls of the internal carotid artery were incised obliquely from the origin of the internal carotid artery toward the common carotid artery,leaving the wall of internal carotid artery intact at the bifurcation. The surgical process,cardiovascular and cerebrovascular complications and other surgical complications were recorded. The incidences of complications,restenosis of intraoperative target lesions and re-intervention were collected during follow-up.Results:All procedures were performed successfully under general anesthesia. The total operation time was (36.5±10.1)minutes (range: 22 to 65 minutes),and carotid clamping time was (15.0±6.3)minutes (range: 7 to 31 minutes). One patient (1.0%) occurred postoperative cerebrovascular accident,1 patient (1.0%) developed cerebral hyperperfusion syndrome (CHS),and another 1 patient (1.0%) suffered myocardial infarction. All these patients were recovered after medical treatment within a week. The follow-up time( M(IQR)) was 24 (28) months (range: 6 to 62 months). Two patients (2.0%) were reported to have hemodynamically significant restenosis within 2 years,with one patient requiring intervention. No patient suffered from ipsilateral ischemic stroke. Conclusions:MECEA is a safe and effective surgical method of treating carotid artery stenosis. This method can reduce carotid clamping time and lowers the risk of ischemic stroke. Meantime,it preserves the integrity of the adventitia at the bifurcation of carotid artery,reduces the chance of restenosis. Moreover,it might be helpful to prevent postoperative CHS due to reducing damage to the carotid body and carotid sinus nerve.

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