1.Single-Cell and Machine Learning-Based Identification of Epithelial Subsets and Prognostic Modeling in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer
Jinpeng WU ; Xue GUO ; Engu LIU ; Feng LIN ; Hongtao LI
Cancer Research on Prevention and Treatment 2026;53(4):251-266
Objective To investigate the heterogeneity and key molecular features of epithelial cells in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC), identify prognostic biomarkers, and develop a robust survival prediction model. Methods Using TNBC single-cell transcriptomic data, epithelial cells were extracted, normalized, and subclustered to characterize their molecular signatures and functional differences. High-dimensional weighted gene co-expression network analysis (hdWGCNA) was applied to establish co-expression modules in epithelial cells. Multiple machine learning algorithms were integrated to select key prognostic genes and develop a risk-score model, whose performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and Kaplan-Meier (K-M) survival analysis. In addition, the immune microenvironment features and potential drug-response differences between the high- and low-risk groups were systematically assessed. Finally, PCR was performed to validate the expression differences of the key genes between tumor and normal tissues. Results We characterized the composition and molecular features of TNBC epithelial subpopulations and identified a TNBC-associated epithelial subset. By integrating hdWGCNA with machine learning approaches, 10 key genes were selected to construct a prognostic model, which effectively stratified patients into distinct survival-risk groups and demonstrated favorable predictive performance in ROC and K-M analyses. Immune profiling revealed the differences in the infiltration levels of seven immune cell types and immune function-related features between the high- and low-risk groups. Drug-sensitivity analysis suggested potential differential responses to eight agents across the risk groups. PCR validation further confirmed the differential expression of the ten signature genes between tumor and normal tissues. Conclusion This study reveals epithelial heterogeneity in TNBC at single-cell resolution and establishes a 10-gene prognostic model, which may facilitate the stratification of TNBC risk and the evaluation of immune characteristics and potential therapeutic strategies.
2.Long-term survival outcomes and prognostic factors following radical resection of pancreatic body and tail cancer:a retrospective analysis of 992 patients
Dong XU ; Yang WU ; Kai ZHANG ; Nan LYU ; Qianqian WANG ; Pengfei WU ; Jie YIN ; Baobao CAI ; Guodong SHI ; Jianzhen LIN ; Yazhou WANG ; Lingdi YIN ; Zipeng LU ; Min TU ; Jianmin CHEN ; Feng GUO ; Jishu WEI ; Junli WU ; Wentao GAO ; Cuncai DAI ; Yi MIAO ; Kuirong JIANG
Chinese Journal of Surgery 2026;64(1):46-54
Objective:To investigate the survival outcomes and prognostic factors in patients undergoing radical resection for pancreatic body and tail cancer.Methods:A retrospective case series study was conducted on 992 patients who underwent radical resection for pancreatic body and tail cancer at the Pancreatic Center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University from January 2016 to June 2024. In this study, 577 (58.2%) were male and 415 (41.8%) were female,with an age of (65±9) years (range: 26 to 86 years). Follow-up continued until June 2024. Survival rates were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method,and prognostic factors were identified using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models.Results:Among 992 patients,open surgery was the predominant approach (89.1%, 884/992), and radical antegrade modular pancreatosplenectomy (RAMPS) was performed in 317 patients (32.0%). Combined organ resection,venous resection,and arterial resection were performed in 23.5%, 9.3%,and 11.2% of patients,respectively. The rates of R0, R1-1 mm, and R1-direct resections were 49.8% (494/992),41.5% (412/992), and 8.7% (86/992),respectively. Stage ⅡB was the most common TNM stage (32.2%,319/992). A total of 801 patients (80.8%) received adjuvant chemotherapy. The median follow-up period was 32.0(8.8) months(range:3.2 to 105.3 months),during which 508 patients (51.2%) died. The overall median survival (OS) was 26.4 months,with 1-,3-, and 5-year survival rates of 79.0%,40.0%, and 29.0%, respectively. In the recent five years (from 2020 to 2024), the median OS improved significantly to 34.1 months compared to 20.0 months from 2016 to 2019 ( P<0.01). Histological subtype analysis showed that the median OS time was 26.7 months for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC, n=855),58.9 months for invasive intraductal papillary mucinous carcinoma (IPMC, n=32),and 15.7 months for adenosquamous carcinoma of pancreas (ASCP, n=73) ( P=0.001). Among PDAC patients, adjuvant chemotherapy significantly improved survival (29.1 months vs. 14.4 months, P<0.01);in IPMC patients, adjuvant chemotherapy also extended survival (65.7 months vs. 58.9 months, P=0.047). Although ASCP patients receiving chemotherapy had a longer median OS time than those without (18.8 months vs. 8.9 months),the difference was not statistically significant ( P=0.151). Multivariate Cox regression analysis in PDAC patients indicated that adjuvant chemotherapy, R0 resection, T stage,N stage,and tumor differentiation were independent prognostic factors ( P<0.01). The median OS time by TNM stage was:not reached for stage ⅠA, 51.6 months for ⅠB, 25.5 months for ⅡA, 23.7 months for ⅡB, 23.0 months for Ⅲ, and 14.4 months for Ⅳ. The median OS time for R0,R1-1 mm,and R1-direct resections was 34.1,24.7,and 15.7 months,respectively ( P<0.01). Conclusion:Adjuvant chemotherapy,R0 resection,tumor stage,and differentiation are independent prognostic factors for pancreatic body and tail cancer.
3.Long-term survival outcomes and prognostic factors following radical resection of pancreatic body and tail cancer:a retrospective analysis of 992 patients
Dong XU ; Yang WU ; Kai ZHANG ; Nan LYU ; Qianqian WANG ; Pengfei WU ; Jie YIN ; Baobao CAI ; Guodong SHI ; Jianzhen LIN ; Yazhou WANG ; Lingdi YIN ; Zipeng LU ; Min TU ; Jianmin CHEN ; Feng GUO ; Jishu WEI ; Junli WU ; Wentao GAO ; Cuncai DAI ; Yi MIAO ; Kuirong JIANG
Chinese Journal of Surgery 2026;64(1):46-54
Objective:To investigate the survival outcomes and prognostic factors in patients undergoing radical resection for pancreatic body and tail cancer.Methods:A retrospective case series study was conducted on 992 patients who underwent radical resection for pancreatic body and tail cancer at the Pancreatic Center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University from January 2016 to June 2024. In this study, 577 (58.2%) were male and 415 (41.8%) were female,with an age of (65±9) years (range: 26 to 86 years). Follow-up continued until June 2024. Survival rates were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method,and prognostic factors were identified using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models.Results:Among 992 patients,open surgery was the predominant approach (89.1%, 884/992), and radical antegrade modular pancreatosplenectomy (RAMPS) was performed in 317 patients (32.0%). Combined organ resection,venous resection,and arterial resection were performed in 23.5%, 9.3%,and 11.2% of patients,respectively. The rates of R0, R1-1 mm, and R1-direct resections were 49.8% (494/992),41.5% (412/992), and 8.7% (86/992),respectively. Stage ⅡB was the most common TNM stage (32.2%,319/992). A total of 801 patients (80.8%) received adjuvant chemotherapy. The median follow-up period was 32.0(8.8) months(range:3.2 to 105.3 months),during which 508 patients (51.2%) died. The overall median survival (OS) was 26.4 months,with 1-,3-, and 5-year survival rates of 79.0%,40.0%, and 29.0%, respectively. In the recent five years (from 2020 to 2024), the median OS improved significantly to 34.1 months compared to 20.0 months from 2016 to 2019 ( P<0.01). Histological subtype analysis showed that the median OS time was 26.7 months for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC, n=855),58.9 months for invasive intraductal papillary mucinous carcinoma (IPMC, n=32),and 15.7 months for adenosquamous carcinoma of pancreas (ASCP, n=73) ( P=0.001). Among PDAC patients, adjuvant chemotherapy significantly improved survival (29.1 months vs. 14.4 months, P<0.01);in IPMC patients, adjuvant chemotherapy also extended survival (65.7 months vs. 58.9 months, P=0.047). Although ASCP patients receiving chemotherapy had a longer median OS time than those without (18.8 months vs. 8.9 months),the difference was not statistically significant ( P=0.151). Multivariate Cox regression analysis in PDAC patients indicated that adjuvant chemotherapy, R0 resection, T stage,N stage,and tumor differentiation were independent prognostic factors ( P<0.01). The median OS time by TNM stage was:not reached for stage ⅠA, 51.6 months for ⅠB, 25.5 months for ⅡA, 23.7 months for ⅡB, 23.0 months for Ⅲ, and 14.4 months for Ⅳ. The median OS time for R0,R1-1 mm,and R1-direct resections was 34.1,24.7,and 15.7 months,respectively ( P<0.01). Conclusion:Adjuvant chemotherapy,R0 resection,tumor stage,and differentiation are independent prognostic factors for pancreatic body and tail cancer.
4.Aromatic Substances and Their Clinical Application: A Review
Yundan GUO ; Lulu WANG ; Zhili ZHANG ; Chen GUO ; Zhihong PI ; Wei GONG ; Zongping WU ; Dayu WANG ; Tianle GAO ; Cai TIE ; Yuan LIN ; Jiandong JIANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(22):264-272
Aromatherapy refers to the method of using the aromatic components of plants in appropriate forms to act on the entire body or a specific area to prevent and treat diseases. Essential oils used in aromatherapy are hydrophobic liquids containing volatile aromatic molecules, such as limonene, linalool, linalool acetate, geraniol, and citronellol. These chemicals have been extensively studied and shown to have a variety of functions, including reducing anxiety, relieving depression, promoting sleep, and providing pain relief. Terpenoids are a class of organic molecules with relatively low lipid solubility. After being inhaled, they can pass through the nasal mucosa for transfer or penetrate the skin and enter the bloodstream upon local application. Some of these substances also have the ability to cross the blood-brain barrier, thereby exerting effects on the central nervous system. Currently, the academic community generally agrees that products such as essential oils and aromatherapy from aromatic plants have certain health benefits. However, the process of extracting a single component from it and successfully developing it into a drug still faces many challenges. Its safety and efficacy still need to be further verified through more rigorous and systematic experiments. This article systematically elaborated on the efficacy of aromatic substances, including plant extracts and natural small molecule compounds, in antibacterial and antiviral fields and the regulation of nervous system activity. As a result, a deeper understanding of aromatherapy was achieved. At the same time, the potential of these aromatic substances for drug development was thoroughly explored, providing important references and insights for possible future drug research and application.
5.Percutaneous coronary intervention vs . medical therapy in patients on dialysis with coronary artery disease in China.
Enmin XIE ; Yaxin WU ; Zixiang YE ; Yong HE ; Hesong ZENG ; Jianfang LUO ; Mulei CHEN ; Wenyue PANG ; Yanmin XU ; Chuanyu GAO ; Xiaogang GUO ; Lin CAI ; Qingwei JI ; Yining YANG ; Di WU ; Yiqiang YUAN ; Jing WAN ; Yuliang MA ; Jun ZHANG ; Zhimin DU ; Qing YANG ; Jinsong CHENG ; Chunhua DING ; Xiang MA ; Chunlin YIN ; Zeyuan FAN ; Qiang TANG ; Yue LI ; Lihua SUN ; Chengzhi LU ; Jufang CHI ; Zhuhua YAO ; Yanxiang GAO ; Changan YU ; Jingyi REN ; Jingang ZHENG
Chinese Medical Journal 2025;138(3):301-310
BACKGROUND:
The available evidence regarding the benefits of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) on patients receiving dialysis with coronary artery disease (CAD) is limited and inconsistent. This study aimed to evaluate the association between PCI and clinical outcomes as compared with medical therapy alone in patients undergoing dialysis with CAD in China.
METHODS:
This multicenter, retrospective study was conducted in 30 tertiary medical centers across 12 provinces in China from January 2015 to June 2021 to include patients on dialysis with CAD. The primary outcome was major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), defined as a composite of cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and non-fatal stroke. Secondary outcomes included all-cause death, the individual components of MACE, and Bleeding Academic Research Consortium criteria types 2, 3, or 5 bleeding. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the association between PCI and outcomes. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) and propensity score matching (PSM) were performed to account for potential between-group differences.
RESULTS:
Of the 1146 patients on dialysis with significant CAD, 821 (71.6%) underwent PCI. After a median follow-up of 23.0 months, PCI was associated with a 43.0% significantly lower risk for MACE (33.9% [ n = 278] vs . 43.7% [ n = 142]; adjusted hazards ratio 0.57, 95% confidence interval 0.45-0.71), along with a slightly increased risk for bleeding outcomes that did not reach statistical significance (11.1% vs . 8.3%; adjusted hazards ratio 1.31, 95% confidence interval, 0.82-2.11). Furthermore, PCI was associated with a significant reduction in all-cause and cardiovascular mortalities. Subgroup analysis did not modify the association of PCI with patient outcomes. These primary findings were consistent across IPTW, PSM, and competing risk analyses.
CONCLUSION
This study indicated that PCI in patients on dialysis with CAD was significantly associated with lower MACE and mortality when comparing with those with medical therapy alone, albeit with a slightly increased risk for bleeding events that did not reach statistical significance.
Humans
;
Percutaneous Coronary Intervention/methods*
;
Male
;
Female
;
Coronary Artery Disease/drug therapy*
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Renal Dialysis/methods*
;
Middle Aged
;
Aged
;
China
;
Proportional Hazards Models
;
Treatment Outcome
6.Safety and efficacy of Angong Niuhuang Pills in patients with moderate-to-severe acute ischemic stroke (ANGONG TRIAL): A randomized double-blind placebo-controlled pilot clinical trial.
Shengde LI ; Anxin WANG ; Lin SHI ; Qin LIU ; Xiaoling GUO ; Kun LIU ; Xiaoli WANG ; Jie LI ; Jianming ZHU ; Qiuyi WU ; Qingcheng YANG ; Xianbo ZHUANG ; Hui YOU ; Feng FENG ; Yishan LUO ; Huiling LI ; Jun NI ; Bin PENG
Chinese Medical Journal 2025;138(5):579-588
BACKGROUND:
Preclinical studies have indicated that Angong Niuhuang Pills (ANP) reduce cerebral infarct and edema volumes. This study aimed to investigate whether ANP safely reduces cerebral infarct and edema volumes in patients with moderate to severe acute ischemic stroke.
METHODS:
This randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled pilot trial included patients with acute ischemic stroke with National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) scores ranging from 10 to 20 in 17 centers in China between April 2021 and July 2022. Patients were allocated within 36 h after onset via block randomization to receive ANP or placebo (3 g/day for 5 days). The primary outcomes were changes in cerebral infarct and edema volumes after 14 days of treatment. The primary safety outcome was severe adverse events (SAEs) for 90 days.
RESULTS:
There were 57 and 60 patients finally included in the ANP and placebo groups, respectively for modified intention-to-treat analysis. The median age was 66.0 years, and the median NIHSS score at baseline was 12.0. The changes in cerebral infarct volume at day 14 were 0.3 mL and 0.4 mL in the ANP and placebo groups, respectively (median difference: -7.1 mL; interquartile range [IQR]: -18.3 to 2.3 mL, P = 0.30). The changes in cerebral edema volume of the ANP and placebo groups on day 14 were 11.4 mL and 4.0 mL, respectively ( median difference: 3.0 mL, IQR: -1.3 to 9.9 mL, P = 0.15). The rates of SAE within 90 days were similar in the ANP (3/57, 5%) and placebo (7/60, 12%) groups ( P = 0.36). Changes in serum mercury and arsenic concentrations were comparable. In patients with large artery atherosclerosis, ANP reduced the cerebral infarct volume at 14 days (median difference: -12.3 mL; IQR: -27.7 to -0.3 mL, P = 0.03).
CONCLUSIONS:
ANP showed a similar safety profile to placebo and non-significant tendency to reduce cerebral infarct volume in patients with moderate-to-severe stroke. Further studies are warranted to assess the efficacy of ANP in reducing cerebral infarcts and improving clinical prognosis.
TRAIL REGISTRATION
Clinicaltrials.gov , No. NCT04475328.
Aged
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Female
;
Humans
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Male
;
Middle Aged
;
Double-Blind Method
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Drugs, Chinese Herbal/adverse effects*
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Ischemic Stroke/drug therapy*
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Pilot Projects
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Stroke/drug therapy*
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Treatment Outcome
7.Equivalence of SYN008 versus omalizumab in patients with refractory chronic spontaneous urticaria: A multicenter, randomized, double-blind, parallel-group, active-controlled phase III study.
Jingyi LI ; Yunsheng LIANG ; Wenli FENG ; Liehua DENG ; Hong FANG ; Chao JI ; Youkun LIN ; Furen ZHANG ; Rushan XIA ; Chunlei ZHANG ; Shuping GUO ; Mao LIN ; Yanling LI ; Shoumin ZHANG ; Xiaojing KANG ; Liuqing CHEN ; Zhiqiang SONG ; Xu YAO ; Chengxin LI ; Xiuping HAN ; Guoxiang GUO ; Qing GUO ; Xinsuo DUAN ; Jie LI ; Juan SU ; Shanshan LI ; Qing SUN ; Juan TAO ; Yangfeng DING ; Danqi DENG ; Fuqiu LI ; Haiyun SUO ; Shunquan WU ; Jingbo QIU ; Hongmei LUO ; Linfeng LI ; Ruoyu LI
Chinese Medical Journal 2025;138(16):2040-2042
8.Evaluation of nutritional value of three kinds of medicinal snakes based on content of 15 amino acids.
Xi WANG ; Ye-Yuan LIN ; Wen-Ting ZHONG ; Zhi-Guo MA ; Meng-Hua WU ; Hui CAO ; Ying ZHANG
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(9):2411-2421
A high-performance liquid chromatography method using pre-column derivatization with 6-aminoquinolyl-N-hydroxysuccinimidyl carbamate was developed to determine the content of 15 amino acids in the medicinal snakes Bungarus Parvus, Agkistrodon, and Zaocys. The results showed that the total amino acid(TAA) content ranged from 277.13 to 515.05 mg·g~(-1), with the top four amino acids in all three species being glutamic acid(Glu), glycine(Gly), aspartic acid(Asp), and lysine(Lys). The essential amino acid(EAA) content ranged from 74.56 to 203.94 mg·g~(-1), with Agkistrodon exhibiting the highest content. The non-essential amino acid(NEAA), semi-essential amino acid(semi-EAA), and medicinal amino acid(MAA) content ranged from 189.06 to 318.23, 12.89 to 33.53, and 179.83 to 342.33 mg·g~(-1), respectively, with Zaocys having the highest content in these categories. Amino acid nutritional value was evaluated using the amino acid ratio(RAA), amino acid ratio coefficient(RCAA), and amino acid ratio coefficient score(SRCAA), and the results indicated that all three medicinal snakes possessed good nutritional value. The amino acid composition was similar across the species, though significant differences in content were observed. Based on these differences, an orthogonal partial least squares-discriminant analysis(OPLS-DA) model was established, which could clearly distinguish between the three medicinal snake species. The key differences in amino acid content included Gly, tyrosine(Tyr), Glu, and serine(Ser), which may be related to the observed clinical application differences among the species. Further research into the mechanisms of these differential amino acids is expected to provide more insights into the clinical application disparities of these three medicinal snake species.
Amino Acids/chemistry*
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Animals
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Nutritive Value
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Chromatography, High Pressure Liquid
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Snakes/classification*
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Bungarus
9.Preliminary efficacy observation of 3D printed functional spinal external fixation brace combined with McKenzie therapy in the treatment of lumbar disc herniation.
Ning-Xia WANG ; Ping CHEN ; Hai-Dong WANG ; Jing JI ; Fang-Hong NIAN ; Xin LIU ; Chong-Fei JIN ; Duo-Ming ZHAO ; Hao-Lin LI ; Wei-Gang CHENG ; Gui-Lin LAI ; Guo-Biao WU
China Journal of Orthopaedics and Traumatology 2025;38(10):1047-1054
OBJECTIVE:
To observe the clinical efficacy of 3D printing spinal external fixator combined with McKenzie therapy for patients with lumbar dics herniation (LDH).
METHODS:
Sixty patients with LDH between January 2022 and January 2023 were enrolled. Among them, 30 patients were given McKinsey training. According to different treatment methods, all patients were divided into McKenzie group and McKenzie + 3D printing group, 30 patients in each group. The McKenzie group provided McKenzie therapy. The McKenzie + 3D printing group were treated with 3D printing spinal external fixation brace on the basis of McKenzie therapy. Patients in both groups were between 25 and 60 years of age and had their first illness. In the McKenzie group, there were 19 males and 11 females, with an average age of (48.57±5.86) years old, and the disease duration was (7.03 ±2.39) months. The McKenzie + 3D printing group, there were 21 males and 9 females, with an average age of (48.80±5.92) years old, and the disease duration was(7.30±2.56) months. Pain was evaluated using the visual analogue scale (VAS), and lumbar spine function was assessed using the Oswestry disability index (ODI) and the Japanese Orthopaedic Association (JOA) score. VAS, ODI and JOA scores were compared between two groups before treatment and at 1, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months after treatment.
RESULTS:
All patients were followed up for 12 months. The VAS for the McKenzie combined with 3D printing group before treatment and at 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months post-treatment were(6.533±0.860), (5.133±1.008), (3.933±0.868), (2.900±0.759), (2.067±0.640), (1.433±0.504), respectively. In the McKenzie group, the corresponding scores were (6.467±0.860), (5.067±1.048), (4.600±0.968), (3.533±1.008), (2.567±0.728), (1.967±0.809), respectively. The ODI of the McKenzie group before treatment and at 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months post-treatment were (41.033±6.810)%, (37.933±6.209)%, (35.467±6.962)%, (27.567±10.081)%, (20.800±7.531)%, (13.533±5.158)%, respectively. For the McKenzie combined with 3D printing group, the corresponding ODI were(38.033±5.605)%, (33.000±6.192)%, (28.767±7.045)%, (22.200±5.517)%, (17.700±4.836)%, (11.900±2.771)%, respectively. The JOA scores of the McKenzie combined with 3D printing group before treatment and at 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months post-treatment were(8.900±2.074), (13.133±2.330), (15.700±3.583), (20.400±3.480), (22.267±3.084), (24.833±2.640), respectively. In the McKenzie group, the corresponding scores were(9.200±2.091), (12.267±2.406), (15.333±3.198), (18.467±2.240), (20.133±2.751), (22.467±2.849), respectively. Before the initiation of treatment, no statistically significant differences were observed in the VAS, ODI, and JOA scores between two groups (P>0.05). At 3, 6, 9, and 12 months post-treatment, the VAS in the McKenzie combined with 3D printing group was significantly lower than that in the McKenzie group, and the difference was statistically significant (P<0.05). The comparison of ODI between two groups at 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months post-treatment revealed statistically significant differences (P<0.05). At 6, 9, and 12 months post-treatment, the JOA score in the McKenzie combined with 3D printing group was significantly higher than that in the McKenzie-only group, and the difference was statistically significant (P<0.05).
CONCLUSION
The combination of 3D printed functional spinal external fixation brace with McKenzie therapy can significantly improve and maintain lumbar function in patients with LDH.
Humans
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Male
;
Female
;
Middle Aged
;
Printing, Three-Dimensional
;
Intervertebral Disc Displacement/surgery*
;
External Fixators
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Lumbar Vertebrae/surgery*
;
Adult
;
Braces
;
Treatment Outcome
10.The Valvular Heart Disease-specific Age-adjusted Comorbidity Index (VHD-ACI) score in patients with moderate or severe valvular heart disease.
Mu-Rong XIE ; Bin ZHANG ; Yun-Qing YE ; Zhe LI ; Qing-Rong LIU ; Zhen-Yan ZHAO ; Jun-Xing LV ; De-Jing FENG ; Qing-Hao ZHAO ; Hai-Tong ZHANG ; Zhen-Ya DUAN ; Bin-Cheng WANG ; Shuai GUO ; Yan-Yan ZHAO ; Run-Lin GAO ; Hai-Yan XU ; Yong-Jian WU
Journal of Geriatric Cardiology 2025;22(9):759-774
BACKGROUND:
Based on the China-VHD database, this study sought to develop and validate a Valvular Heart Disease- specific Age-adjusted Comorbidity Index (VHD-ACI) for predicting mortality risk in patients with VHD.
METHODS & RESULTS:
The China-VHD study was a nationwide, multi-centre multi-centre cohort study enrolling 13,917 patients with moderate or severe VHD across 46 medical centres in China between April-June 2018. After excluding cases with missing key variables, 11,459 patients were retained for final analysis. The primary endpoint was 2-year all-cause mortality, with 941 deaths (10.0%) observed during follow-up. The VHD-ACI was derived after identifying 13 independent mortality predictors: cardiomyopathy, myocardial infarction, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pulmonary artery hypertension, low body weight, anaemia, hypoalbuminaemia, renal insufficiency, moderate/severe hepatic dysfunction, heart failure, cancer, NYHA functional class and age. The index exhibited good discrimination (AUC, 0.79) and calibration (Brier score, 0.062) in the total cohort, outperforming both EuroSCORE II and ACCI (P < 0.001 for comparison). Internal validation through 100 bootstrap iterations yielded a C statistic of 0.694 (95% CI: 0.665-0.723) for 2-year mortality prediction. VHD-ACI scores, as a continuous variable (VHD-ACI score: adjusted HR (95% CI): 1.263 (1.245-1.282), P < 0.001) or categorized using thresholds determined by the Yoden index (VHD-ACI ≥ 9 vs. < 9, adjusted HR (95% CI): 6.216 (5.378-7.184), P < 0.001), were independently associated with mortality. The prognostic performance remained consistent across all VHD subtypes (aortic stenosis, aortic regurgitation, mitral stenosis, mitral regurgitation, tricuspid valve disease, mixed aortic/mitral valve disease and multiple VHD), and clinical subgroups stratified by therapeutic strategy, LVEF status (preserved vs. reduced), disease severity and etiology.
CONCLUSION
The VHD-ACI is a simple 13-comorbidity algorithm for the prediction of mortality in VHD patients and providing a simple and rapid tool for risk stratification.

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