1.Outlook on clinical blood demand from 2026 to 2035
Meng JIANG ; Hanmei ZHANG ; Linlin LI ; Jian KONG ; Xin WANG ; Minxiang GUO ; Cheng LIANG ; Hui WU
Chinese Journal of Blood Transfusion 2026;39(8):1074-1082
Objective: To analyze the demographic evolution of China over the forthcoming decade (2026-2035) and to systematically evaluate its potential implications for voluntary blood donation practices and the equilibrium of clinical blood supply and demand. Methods: Leveraging comprehensive blood collection and utilization data from 2021 to 2025 at the national, provincial (Shandong), and municipal (Zibo) levels, we identified and examined critical determinants influencing blood management systems. The DeepSeek-V3.2 large language model was deployed to project future population age structures, and to generate quantitative estimates for hospitalization volumes, clinical blood requirements, available blood supply, and donation frequencies for the target years 2030 and 2035, thereby furnishing an evidence base for strategic planning and priority-setting. Results: DeepSeek-derived projections indicate that the proportion of China's population aged 60 years and above will surpass 27% (370 million/1 380 million) by 2030 and exceed 30% (400 million/1 350 million) by 2035, signaling a marked acceleration in population aging. This demographic shift is projected to reduce the proportion of the national population eligible to donate blood from 59.2% (835 million out of 1.41 billion) to 52% (710 million out of 1.36 billion), while the demand for blood is expected to increase by 87.8% relative to 2024, rising from 26.927 million units to 50.56 million units. Sustaining blood supply-demand balance will necessitate progressive annual increases in donation rates. Under prevailing policy frameworks, the required blood donation rate among the eligible population in Shandong Province would need to rise by 122.57% by 2035 [from 20.07‰ (1.1641 million person-times/58 million people) to 44.67‰ (2.189 million person-times/49 million people)] to potentially satisfy projected clinical requirements. Conclusion: By integrating DeepSeek-V3.2, AI predictive models, and blood donation incentive measures, it is possible to monitor population demographics, forecast clinical blood demand, manage blood supplies, and ensure the long-term sustainability of clinical blood availability. It must be acknowledged, however, that the present analysis is constrained by a limited data foundation (comprising only five annual observation points); accordingly, the projections should be interpreted as directional trend indicators or methodological illustrations rather than definitive quantitative forecasts.
2.Progress in clinical diagnosis and treatment of lung cancer associated with cystic airspaces
Jun CHENG ; Chunfen GUO ; Kun WU ; Jiang GUO ; Songtao KANG ; Jian CHEN
Chinese Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2025;41(2):115-120
Lung cancer associated with cystic airspaces (LCCA) represents a less common subtype of lung cancer, possessing special morphological features and imaging characteristics. The disease often presents atypically in its early stages, frequently leading to misdiagnosis, especially in the variant with the feature of thin, smooth walls. Although there has been a significant body of research on LCCA in recent years, the focus has predominantly been on the pathogenesis, imaging classification and diagnosis, and the correlation between pathological types and imaging morphology. But, there is a limited number of research on surgical treatment strategies and subsequent management of this condition. Furthermore, postoperative consolidation and internal medical treatments for lung cancer patients necessitate integration with TNM staging, particularly the pathological stage. However, due to the unique morphology of LCCA, the primary tumor assessment (T staging) appears insufficient for accurately predicting the prognosis of the tumor. This article provides a comprehensive review of the etiology and pathogenesis of LCCA, its clinical presentation, imaging and morphological features, diagnosis and differential diagnosis, pathological and genetic mutation characteristics, treatment, and prognosis, thereby serving as a reference for the clinical diagnosis and treatment of LCCA.
3.Chromosome 8 Open Reading Frame 76 (C8orf76) Co-Expressed with Cyclin-Dependent Kinase 4 (CDK4) as a Prognostic Indicator of Colorectal Cancer.
Shang GUO ; Cheng Cheng LIU ; Zi Feng ZHAO ; Zhong Xin LI ; Xia JIANG ; Zeng Ren ZHAO
Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2025;38(8):977-987
OBJECTIVE:
To explore the correlation between chromosome 8 open reading frame 76 (C8orf76) and cyclin-dependent kinase 4 (CDK4) and the potential predictive effect of C8orf76 and CDK4 on the prognosis of colorectal cancer (CRC).
METHODS:
We constructed a protein-protein interaction network of C8orf76-related genes and analyzed the prognostic signatures of C8orf76 and CDK4. Clinicopathological features of C8orf76 and CDK4 were visualized using a nomogram.
RESULTS:
C8orf76 and CDK4 levels were positively correlated in two independent human CRC cohorts ( n = 83 and n = 597). A consistent positive correlation was observed between C8orf76 and CDK4 expression in the CRC cell lines. The nomogram included prognostic genes (C8orf76 and CDK4) and pathological N and M stages. The concordance index (C-index) in our cohort was 0.776, which suggests that the ability of the indicators to predict the overall survival of patients with CRC in our cohort was strong.
CONCLUSION
We found that C8orf76 was positively correlated with CDK4 in both the cohorts as well as in CRC cell lines. Therefore, C8orf76 and CDK4 can be used as potential biomarkers to predict the prognosis of CRC.
Humans
;
Colorectal Neoplasms/diagnosis*
;
Cyclin-Dependent Kinase 4/metabolism*
;
Prognosis
;
Male
;
Female
;
Middle Aged
;
Biomarkers, Tumor/genetics*
;
Aged
;
Cell Line, Tumor
;
Gene Expression Regulation, Neoplastic
4.Association of Body Mass Index with All-Cause Mortality and Cause-Specific Mortality in Rural China: 10-Year Follow-up of a Population-Based Multicenter Prospective Study.
Juan Juan HUANG ; Yuan Zhi DI ; Ling Yu SHEN ; Jian Guo LIANG ; Jiang DU ; Xue Fang CAO ; Wei Tao DUAN ; Ai Wei HE ; Jun LIANG ; Li Mei ZHU ; Zi Sen LIU ; Fang LIU ; Shu Min YANG ; Zu Hui XU ; Cheng CHEN ; Bin ZHANG ; Jiao Xia YAN ; Yan Chun LIANG ; Rong LIU ; Tao ZHU ; Hong Zhi LI ; Fei SHEN ; Bo Xuan FENG ; Yi Jun HE ; Zi Han LI ; Ya Qi ZHAO ; Tong Lei GUO ; Li Qiong BAI ; Wei LU ; Qi JIN ; Lei GAO ; He Nan XIN
Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2025;38(10):1179-1193
OBJECTIVE:
This study aimed to explore the association between body mass index (BMI) and mortality based on the 10-year population-based multicenter prospective study.
METHODS:
A general population-based multicenter prospective study was conducted at four sites in rural China between 2013 and 2023. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models and restricted cubic spline analyses were used to assess the association between BMI and mortality. Stratified analyses were performed based on the individual characteristics of the participants.
RESULTS:
Overall, 19,107 participants with a sum of 163,095 person-years were included and 1,910 participants died. The underweight (< 18.5 kg/m 2) presented an increase in all-cause mortality (adjusted hazards ratio [ aHR] = 2.00, 95% confidence interval [ CI]: 1.66-2.41), while overweight (≥ 24.0 to < 28.0 kg/m 2) and obesity (≥ 28.0 kg/m 2) presented a decrease with an aHR of 0.61 (95% CI: 0.52-0.73) and 0.51 (95% CI: 0.37-0.70), respectively. Overweight ( aHR = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.67-0.86) and mild obesity ( aHR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.59-0.87) had a positive impact on mortality in people older than 60 years. All-cause mortality decreased rapidly until reaching a BMI of 25.7 kg/m 2 ( aHR = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.92-0.98) and increased slightly above that value, indicating a U-shaped association. The beneficial impact of being overweight on mortality was robust in most subgroups and sensitivity analyses.
CONCLUSION
This study provides additional evidence that overweight and mild obesity may be inversely related to the risk of death in individuals older than 60 years. Therefore, it is essential to consider age differences when formulating health and weight management strategies.
Humans
;
Body Mass Index
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Male
;
Female
;
Middle Aged
;
Prospective Studies
;
Rural Population/statistics & numerical data*
;
Aged
;
Follow-Up Studies
;
Adult
;
Mortality
;
Cause of Death
;
Obesity/mortality*
;
Overweight/mortality*
5.Pathogen distribution and epidemiological characteristics of acute respiratory infections in hospitalized children:a single-center study in Shanghai in 2023
Yuan FANG ; Jie WANG ; Anna CHENG ; Yuzhe GUO ; Weiqin JIANG ; Lijiao LIU ; Leijun MENG ; Yujuan HUANG
Chinese Journal of Microbiology and Immunology 2025;45(10):817-825
Objective:To analyze the distribution and epidemiological characteristics of non-bacterial pathogens in hospitalized children with acute respiratory infections at a tertiary pediatric hospital in Shanghai during 2023.Methods:A retrospective study was conducted on 10 591 children with acute respiratory tract infections who were hospitalized in Shanghai Children's Hospital from January to December 2023. A multiplex PCR combined with capillary electrophoresis platform was used to detect 11 common non-bacterial respiratory pathogens(including viruses and atypical pathogens). Statistical analysis was carried out using SPSS 29.0 software. Qualitative data were presented as numbers and percentages,and the Chi-square test was employed to make comparisons between groups,aiming to analyze the differences in the distribution of different pathogens according to gender,age group,and season. Additionally,based on the severity of the disease,patients were calssified into a severe pneumonia group and a non-severe pneumonia group to further explore the characteristics of the pathogen spectrum of severe pneumonia.Results:The total detection rate of pathogens was 54.39%(5 760/10 591),and the proportion of mixed infections was 12.76%(735/5 760). The dominant pathogens and their proportions were as follows: Mycoplasma pneumoniae(19.20%,2 034/10 591),human rhinovirus(12.16%,1 288/10 591),influenza A virus(8.31%,880/10 591),and respiratory syncytial virus(8.14%,862/10 591). Epidemiological characteristics showed that:(1)In terms of age: Mycoplasma pneumoniae was more common in older children(29.55%,901/3 049,in the school-age group,χ 2 = 653.67, P<0.001). Influenza A virus had a high incidence in the adolescent group(11.34%,45/397,χ 2=48.69, P<0.001). Respiratory syncytial virus was most susceptible in the infant group(20.94%,280/1 337,χ 2=739.92, P<0.001). Human rhinovirus showed the characteristic of general susceptibility across all ages.(2)Monthly and seasonal distribution: Mycoplasma pneumoniae had a seasonal epidemic in summer and autumn(it began to rise in May and peaked in October at 34.22%,439/1 283);influenza A virus had a bimodal distribution in spring and winter(the peak was 37.15% in March,315/848);respiratory syncytial virus had a dominant epidemic in spring and summer(the detection rate was 21.24% in May,206/970),and human rhinovirus was prevalent throughout the year.(3)Clinical correlation:The detection rate of pathogens in the severe pneumonia group was significantly higher than that in the non-severe group:84.19%(426/506) vs 2.89%(5 334/10 085),χ 2=56.23, P<0.001. Conclusions:In 2023,the pathogen spectrum of hospitalized children with acute respiratory infections in the Shanghai area exhibits an epidemic pattern dominated by Mycoplasma pneumoniae,and its transmission dynamics are significantly age-dependent. This study delineates the pathogen-host-environment tripartite interactions,establishing an evidence-based foundation for formulating precision diagnostic-therapeutic algorithms and seasonal nosocomial infection prevention frameworks.
6.Study on mechanism of Chanbao zhichuang suppository in treating hemorrhoids based on network pharmacology and metabolomics
Chunfeng GUO ; Xin JIANG ; Ruyang CHENG ; Shumin LIU ; Chunxiang XIE ; Fang LU
China Pharmacy 2025;36(13):1622-1628
OBJECTIVE To explore the mechanism of improvement effect of Chanbao zhichuang suppository(CBZCS)on hemorrhoids in rats through network pharmacology and metabolomics.METHODS A hemorrhoid model was established by subcutaneous injection of rhododendron oil to induce anal swelling.SD rats were divided into blank group(NC group,0.32 g/kg vaseline),model group(Model group,0.32 g/kg vaseline),CBZCS low-,medium-,and high-dose groups(CBZCS-L,CBZCS-M,CBZCS-H groups,with dosages of 0.16,0.32,and 0.64 g/kg respectively),and Mayinglong musk hemorrhoids suppository group(Positive group,0.32 g/kg),with 9 rats in each group.Anal administration was performed at 6,12,24,48,and 72 hours after modeling.After the last administration,the pathological changes of the anal tissues in rats were observed,and the serum levels of interleukin-6(IL-6)and tumor necrosis factor-α(TNF-α)in rats were detected.Differential metabolite analysis and enrichment analysis were conducted by metabolomics methods,and the target proteins of CBZCS in treating hemorrhoids were obtained by network pharmacology.The core metabolic pathways were screened by interaction and enrichment analysis of differential metabolites and proteins,and the core proteins were experimentally verified.RESULTS Compared with the NC group,the anal tissues of the Model group showed obvious lesions,and the levels of IL-6 and TNF-α in the serum were significantly increased(P<0.05);compared with the Model group,the pathological damage of the anal tissues in the treatment groups was alleviated to varying degrees,and serum levels of IL-6 in CBZCS-H group,CBZCS-M group,and Positive group as well as serum levels of TNF-α in CBZCS-H group were significantly reduced(P<0.05).The metabolomics results showed that 34 differential metabolites were screened from the anal tissues of rats,and 22 of them showed a return after CBZCS administration.The differential metabolites mainly enriched in arachidonic acid metabolism,histidine metabolism,and glycerophospholipid metabolism.Through the network pharmacology,138 intersection genes of CBZCS against hemorrhoids were determined.The analysis results showed that differential metabolites and target proteins were mainly enriched in the arachidonic acid metabolism pathway,and the regulation of this pathway might be related to cyclooxygenase-2(COX-2),Myc proto-oncogene protein(c-MYC),cytochrome P450 1B1(CYP1B1),interleukin-1β(IL-1β),and IL-6 protein expression.The experimental verification results showed that the expression levels of key proteins(COX-2,c-MYC,CYP1B1,IL-6,IL-1β)in the anal tissues of the Model group were significantly higher than those in the NC group(P<0.05),and the levels of the above proteins in the anal tissues of CBZCS-H group and Positive group were significantly lower than those in the Model group(P<0.05).CONCLUSIONS The mechanism of CBZCS in treating hemorrhoids may be to inhibit the expression of COX-2,c-MYC and CYP1B1 proteins,thereby inhibiting arachidonic acid metabolism and reducing the release of inflammatory factors IL-6 and IL-1β.
7.Clinical guideline for vertebral augmentation of acute symptomatic osteoporotic thoracolumbar compression fractures (version 2025)
Bolong ZHENG ; Wei MEI ; Yanzheng GAO ; Liming CHENG ; Jian CHEN ; Qixin CHEN ; Liang CHEN ; Xigao CHENG ; Jian DONG ; Jin FAN ; Shunwu FAN ; Xiangqian FANG ; Zhong FANG ; Shiqing FENG ; Haoyu FENG ; Haishan GUAN ; Yong HAI ; Baorong HE ; Lijun HE ; Yuan HE ; Hua HUI ; Weimin JIANG ; Junjie JIANG ; Dianming JIANG ; Xuewen KANG ; Hua GUO ; Jianjun LI ; Feng LI ; Li LI ; Weishi LI ; Chunde LI ; Qi LIAO ; Baoge LIU ; Xiaoguang LIU ; Xuhua LU ; Shibao LU ; Bin LIN ; Chao MA ; Xuexiao MA ; Renfu QUAN ; Limin RONG ; Honghui SUN ; Tiansheng SUN ; Yueming SONG ; Hongxun SANG ; Jun SHU ; Jiacan SU ; Jiwei TIAN ; Xinwei WANG ; Zhe WANG ; Zheng WANG ; Zhengwei XU ; Huilin YANG ; Jiancheng YANG ; Liang YAN ; Feng YAN ; Guoyong YIN ; Xuesong ZHANG ; Zhongmin ZHANG ; Jie ZHAO ; Yuhong ZENG ; Yue ZHU ; Rongqiang ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Trauma 2025;41(9):805-818
Acute symptomatic osteoporotic thoracolumbar compression fracture (ASOTLF) can lead to chronic low back pain, kyphosis deformity, pulmonary dysfunction, loss of mobility, and even life-threatening complications. Vertebral augmentation is currently the mainstream treatment method for this condition. In 2019, the Editorial Board of Chinese Journal of Trauma and the Spinal Trauma Group of Orthopedic Surgeons Branch of Chinese Medical Doctor Association collaboratively led the development of Clinical guideline for vertebral augmentation for acute symptomatic osteoporotic thoracolumbar compression fractures. Six years later, with advances in clinical diagnosis and treatment techniques as well as accumulating evidence in related fields, the 2019 guideline requires updating. To this end, the Spinal Trauma Group of Orthopedic Surgeons Branch of Chinese Medical Doctor Association, the Spinal Health Professional Committee of China Human Health Science and Technology Promotion Association, and the Minimally Invasive Orthopedics Professional Committee of Shaanxi Medical Doctor Association have organized experts in the field to develop the Clinical guideline for vertebral augmentation of acute symptomatic osteoporotic thoracolumbar compression fractures ( version 2025) , based on the latest evidence-based medical researches. This guideline incorporates 3 recommendations retained from the 2019 version with updated strength of evidence, along with 12 new recommendations. It provides recommendations from six aspects of diagnosis, pain management, treatment option selection, prevention of postoperative complications, anti-osteoporosis therapy, and postoperative rehabilitation, aiming to provide a reference for standard treatment of vertebral augmentation for ASOTLF in hospitals at all levels.
8.A study on the correlation between symptom networks structure and rehabilitation confidence in middle-aged patients during the recovery period of stroke
Peiran GUO ; Zhixia ZHANG ; Jiao YE ; Rong CHENG ; Linru QIAO ; Qiuxia CHEN ; Fang JIANG ; Yaping LIU
Chinese Journal of Nursing 2025;60(15):1837-1843
Objective To investigate the interaction relationship among symptoms in middle-aged patients during the recovery period of stroke and explore its correlation with rehabilitation confidence,providing a reference for the implementation of precise rehabilitation nursing.Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted,and 365 middle-aged patients in the recovery period of stroke who were hospitalized in 4 tertiary general hospitals in Wuhan from April 20 to August 31,2024 were conveniently selected as the subjects of the investigation.Data were collected using the General Information Questionnaire,Stroke Symptom Experience Scale,and Confidence after Stroke Measure Questionnaire.Symptom network analysis was conducted using R software,and a network structure model of symptoms-rehabilitation confidence was constructed;meanwhile,the stability of the network structure was evaluated.Results Finally,350 middle-aged stroke patients in the recovery period were included.The most common symptom was"limb weakness"(81.1%).Symptom network analysis showed that"limited limb movement"was the core symptom(rs=1.118).The symptoms strongly associated with recovery confidence were"limited physical movement","annoyance at not being able to do what you want to do"and"slow reaction times".Stability tests suggest that the model results are all good.Conclusion Symptoms of middle-aged patients in the recovery period after stroke are interrelated,and the mechanisms by which different symptoms affect rehabilitation confidence are also different.It is recommended that healthcare professionals prioritize interventions based on core symptoms and inter-symptom relationships in order to accurately enhance patient outcomes and improve recovery outcomes.
9.Guideline for Adult Weight Management in China
Weiqing WANG ; Qin WAN ; Jianhua MA ; Guang WANG ; Yufan WANG ; Guixia WANG ; Yongquan SHI ; Tingjun YE ; Xiaoguang SHI ; Jian KUANG ; Bo FENG ; Xiuyan FENG ; Guang NING ; Yiming MU ; Hongyu KUANG ; Xiaoping XING ; Chunli PIAO ; Xingbo CHENG ; Zhifeng CHENG ; Yufang BI ; Yan BI ; Wenshan LYU ; Dalong ZHU ; Cuiyan ZHU ; Wei ZHU ; Fei HUA ; Fei XIANG ; Shuang YAN ; Zilin SUN ; Yadong SUN ; Liqin SUN ; Luying SUN ; Li YAN ; Yanbing LI ; Hong LI ; Shu LI ; Ling LI ; Yiming LI ; Chenzhong LI ; Hua YANG ; Jinkui YANG ; Ling YANG ; Ying YANG ; Tao YANG ; Xiao YANG ; Xinhua XIAO ; Dan WU ; Jinsong KUANG ; Lanjie HE ; Wei GU ; Jie SHEN ; Yongfeng SONG ; Qiao ZHANG ; Hong ZHANG ; Yuwei ZHANG ; Junqing ZHANG ; Xianfeng ZHANG ; Miao ZHANG ; Yifei ZHANG ; Yingli LU ; Hong CHEN ; Li CHEN ; Bing CHEN ; Shihong CHEN ; Guiyan CHEN ; Haibing CHEN ; Lei CHEN ; Yanyan CHEN ; Genben CHEN ; Yikun ZHOU ; Xianghai ZHOU ; Qiang ZHOU ; Jiaqiang ZHOU ; Hongting ZHENG ; Zhongyan SHAN ; Jiajun ZHAO ; Dong ZHAO ; Ji HU ; Jiang HU ; Xinguo HOU ; Bimin SHI ; Tianpei HONG ; Mingxia YUAN ; Weibo XIA ; Xuejiang GU ; Yong XU ; Shuguang PANG ; Tianshu GAO ; Zuhua GAO ; Xiaohui GUO ; Hongyi CAO ; Mingfeng CAO ; Xiaopei CAO ; Jing MA ; Bin LU ; Zhen LIANG ; Jun LIANG ; Min LONG ; Yongde PENG ; Jin LU ; Hongyun LU ; Yan LU ; Chunping ZENG ; Binhong WEN ; Xueyong LOU ; Qingbo GUAN ; Lin LIAO ; Xin LIAO ; Ping XIONG ; Yaoming XUE
Chinese Journal of Endocrinology and Metabolism 2025;41(11):891-907
Body weight abnormalities, including overweight, obesity, and underweight, have become a dual public health challenge in Chinese adults: overweight and obesity lead to a variety of chronic complications, while underweight increases the risks of malnutrition, sarcopenia, and organ dysfunction. To systematically address these issues, multidisciplinary experts in endocrinology, sports science, nutrition, and psychiatry from various regions have held multiple weight management seminars. Based on the latest epidemiological data and clinical evidence, they expanded the guideline to include assessment and intervention strategies for underweight, in addition to the core content of obesity management. This guideline outlines the etiological mechanisms, evaluation methods, and multidimensional management strategies for overweight and obesity, covering key areas such as diagnosis and assessment, medical nutrition therapy, exercise prescription, pharmacological intervention, and psychological support. It is intended to provide a scientific and standardized approach to weight management across the adult population, aiming to curb the rising prevalence of obesity, mitigate complications associated with abnormal body weight, and improve nutritional status and overall quality of life.
10.Clinical characteristics of severe human metapneumovirus infection in children and analysis of risk factors for critical illness
Lijiao LIU ; Jie WANG ; Jing WANG ; Weiqin JIANG ; Yuzhe GUO ; Anna CHENG ; Leijun MENG ; Yujuan HUANG
Chinese Journal of Pediatrics 2025;63(8):864-869
Objective:To investigate the clinical characteristics of children with severe human metapneumovirus (HMPV) infection and identify the risk factors associated with critical illness.Methods:A retrospective cohort study was conducted, enrolling 157 hospitalized children with severe HMPV infection, who tested positive for HMPV nucleic acid via PCR-capillary electrophoresis fragment analysis of nasopharyngeal secretions at Shanghai Children′s Hospital from January 2021 to December 2023.Clinical features, co-infections, treatment, and outcomes were collected. Based on the diagnostic criteria for severe HMPV infection, the patients were categorized into a critical illness group and a non-critical illness group. Intergroup comparisons were performed using the χ2 test or the Mann-Whitney U test. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was employed to identify risk factors for critical HMPV infection and to establish a predictive model.The performance of the model was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and calibration curves. Results:Among the 157 cases of severe HMPV infection, there were 67 males and 90 females, with an onset age of 39.0 (20.0, 55.5) months. Single-pathogen infection was observed in 125 cases (79.6%), while mixed infections accounted for 32 cases (20.4%).Severe pneumonia was diagnosed in 136 cases (86.6%).The predominant manifestations of severe HMPV infection included fever 152 cases (96.8%), cough 151 cases (96.2%), and wheezing 94 cases (59.9%).Sixty-eight patients (43.3%) required non-invasive respiratory support, 58 cases (36.9%) were admitted to the intensive care unit, and 22 cases (14.0%) underwent mechanical ventilation. Of the total, 149 cases (94.9%) were discharged with improvement, 8 cases (5.1%) were discharged against medical advice, and there were no fatal cases. The cohort was further stratified into a critical illness group 31 cases and a non-critical illness group 126 cases. Compared to the non-critical illness group, the critical illness group exhibited significantly higher rates of respiratory distress, lethargy, and intercostal retractions, along with a higher proportion of underlying comorbidities, and elevated levels of C-reactive protein and procalcitonin (all P<0.05).Conversely, albumin and hemoglobin levels were significantly lower in the critical illness group (both P<0.05). ROC curve analysis revealed that the optimal cutoff value for the duration of fever in predicting severe HMPV infection was 4.5 days.The multivariate binary Logistic regression analysis revealed that prolonged fever duration (>4.5 days) ( OR=28.00, 95% CI 5.09-153.93, P<0.001), anorexia ( OR=11.72, 95% CI 1.26-108.75, P=0.030), and immune dysfunction ( OR=36.71, 95% CI 1.55-867.31, P=0.026) were independent risk factors for severe HMPV infection. A predictive model for critical illness was constructed based on these independent risk factors. ROC curve analysis demonstrated excellent discriminative ability, with an area under the curve of 0.96 (95% CI 0.92-1.00, P<0.001). The optimal predictive probability threshold was 0.17, yielding a sensitivity of 0.93 and specificity of 0.92. The calibration curve closely approximated the ideal curve, indicating good model calibration ( P=0.157). Conclusions:Severe HMPV infection is predominantly observed as a single infection and is prone to progress to severe pneumonia, with fever, cough, and wheezing as the main clinical manifestations. A subset of cases progresses to critical illness, though the overall prognosis is favorable. Prolonged fever duration (>4.5 days), anorexia, and immune dysfunction were independent risk factors for critical illness.The risk prediction model constructed for pediatric critical HMPV infection demonstrated robust discriminative ability with excellent calibration.

Result Analysis
Print
Save
E-mail