Objective This study aims to apply the moving average method of time series analysis to forecast outpatient and emergency department visits at our hospital for 2024.Additionally,we will validate the trend prediction model against actual visit data from January to April 2024,assessing the accuracy of the time series fitting.The insights generated will serve as a sci-entific foundation for the hospital to allocate resources effectively,formulate work plans,and meet annual objectives.Methods We collected data on outpatient and emergency visits from 2020 to 2023(n=16 periods)and employed the four moving average method for time series decomposition.We calculated the adjusted seasonal index values and developed a linear trend prediction model(Y=7 3847+568.08t)that incorporates seasonal factors.We then computed the predicted monthly outpatient emergency visits for 2024 and compared these forecasts with actual values from the first four months of 2024 to test the model's reliability.Results The predicted visits for the first four months of 2024 were 84 396,80 633,88 244,and 84 158 respectively.The rela-tive errors compared to actual figures ranged from 1.13％to 8.81％,with an average relative error of 4.22％.The seasonal indi-ces revealed that the third quarter represents the peak period(104.26％),while the second quarter is the low point(95.91％).Conclusion The moving average seasonal index method effectively captures the seasonal variations in outpatient and emergency department visits,offering high prediction accuracy.This methodology can assist hospitals in dynamically adjusting their schedu-ling and optimizing resource allocation.

Objective This study aims to apply the moving average method of time series analysis to forecast outpatient and emergency department visits at our hospital for 2024.Additionally,we will validate the trend prediction model against actual visit data from January to April 2024,assessing the accuracy of the time series fitting.The insights generated will serve as a sci-entific foundation for the hospital to allocate resources effectively,formulate work plans,and meet annual objectives.Methods We collected data on outpatient and emergency visits from 2020 to 2023(n=16 periods)and employed the four moving average method for time series decomposition.We calculated the adjusted seasonal index values and developed a linear trend prediction model(Y=7 3847+568.08t)that incorporates seasonal factors.We then computed the predicted monthly outpatient emergency visits for 2024 and compared these forecasts with actual values from the first four months of 2024 to test the model's reliability.Results The predicted visits for the first four months of 2024 were 84 396,80 633,88 244,and 84 158 respectively.The rela-tive errors compared to actual figures ranged from 1.13％to 8.81％,with an average relative error of 4.22％.The seasonal indi-ces revealed that the third quarter represents the peak period(104.26％),while the second quarter is the low point(95.91％).Conclusion The moving average seasonal index method effectively captures the seasonal variations in outpatient and emergency department visits,offering high prediction accuracy.This methodology can assist hospitals in dynamically adjusting their schedu-ling and optimizing resource allocation.

To investigate the clinical value of endoscopic ultrasound-guided puncture drainage in the treatment for liver abscess and abdominal and pelvic abscess with difficulty in conventional puncture drainage. Data of 12 such patients in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University from January 2015 to November 2023 were retrospectivly analyzed. Results showed liver abscess in 4 cases, abdominal and pelvic abscess in 8 cases. All patients had fever with varying degrees of abdominal pain. Twelve patients with liver abscess and abdominal and pelvic abscess received 13 times of endoscopic ultrasound-guided puncture (1 patient with a large abdominal and pelvic cyst complicated with infection received transgastric and transrectal puncture of 2 times). The puncture needle was successfully penetrated into the pus cavity. Four patients with liver abscess underwent endoscopic ultrasound-guided suction and irrigation, and the abscess was almost completely aspirated. Seven patients with abdominal and pelvic abscess underwent endoscopic ultrasound-guided suction and irrigation, of which 5 cases were almost completely aspirated, and 2 cases had poor drainage effect due to the viscous pus (1 case returned to normal temperature after anti-infection treatment; 1 case had recurrent fever after the operation, and septic shock and death occurred 2 weeks after the operation). A patient with recurrent abdominal and pelvic sclerosis after the operation had multiple abscesses in the abdomen and pelvis, and percutaneous CT-guided drainage was performed for abdominal abscess, but the fever was still repeated. Endoscopic ultrasound-guided balloon dilation plus double pig tail and nasobiliary duct drainage were performed. The patient's temperature returned to normal and abdominal pain was relieved 48 hours after the operation. The total effective rate of abscess drainage was 83.3% (10/12), and the effective rate of suction combined with irrigation for abscess drainage was 81.8% (9/11), and no operation-related complications were observed in all patients. After 3 months of follow-up, no recurrence occurred in 10 patients with effective drainage of abscess, and abscess was self-absorbed in 1 patient with pelvic abscess without effective drainage and no recurrence was observed. Endoscopic ultrasound-guided puncture drainage is of certain clinical value for some liver abscesses and abdominal and pelvic abscesses that are difficult to be drained by conventional puncture, and can reduce the secondary trauma caused by surgical operations.

To investigate the clinical value of endoscopic ultrasound-guided puncture drainage in the treatment for liver abscess and abdominal and pelvic abscess with difficulty in conventional puncture drainage. Data of 12 such patients in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University from January 2015 to November 2023 were retrospectivly analyzed. Results showed liver abscess in 4 cases, abdominal and pelvic abscess in 8 cases. All patients had fever with varying degrees of abdominal pain. Twelve patients with liver abscess and abdominal and pelvic abscess received 13 times of endoscopic ultrasound-guided puncture (1 patient with a large abdominal and pelvic cyst complicated with infection received transgastric and transrectal puncture of 2 times). The puncture needle was successfully penetrated into the pus cavity. Four patients with liver abscess underwent endoscopic ultrasound-guided suction and irrigation, and the abscess was almost completely aspirated. Seven patients with abdominal and pelvic abscess underwent endoscopic ultrasound-guided suction and irrigation, of which 5 cases were almost completely aspirated, and 2 cases had poor drainage effect due to the viscous pus (1 case returned to normal temperature after anti-infection treatment; 1 case had recurrent fever after the operation, and septic shock and death occurred 2 weeks after the operation). A patient with recurrent abdominal and pelvic sclerosis after the operation had multiple abscesses in the abdomen and pelvis, and percutaneous CT-guided drainage was performed for abdominal abscess, but the fever was still repeated. Endoscopic ultrasound-guided balloon dilation plus double pig tail and nasobiliary duct drainage were performed. The patient's temperature returned to normal and abdominal pain was relieved 48 hours after the operation. The total effective rate of abscess drainage was 83.3% (10/12), and the effective rate of suction combined with irrigation for abscess drainage was 81.8% (9/11), and no operation-related complications were observed in all patients. After 3 months of follow-up, no recurrence occurred in 10 patients with effective drainage of abscess, and abscess was self-absorbed in 1 patient with pelvic abscess without effective drainage and no recurrence was observed. Endoscopic ultrasound-guided puncture drainage is of certain clinical value for some liver abscesses and abdominal and pelvic abscesses that are difficult to be drained by conventional puncture, and can reduce the secondary trauma caused by surgical operations.

Objective To explore the clinical value of endoscopic intervention in preventing rebleeding of Forrest Ⅱb grade ulcers.Method A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of 114 patients from January 2015 to April 2023 due to gastrointestinal bleeding,who were confirmed by gastroscopy as Forrest Ⅱb grade ulcers.86 (75.4％,86/114) patients received endoscopic treatment as endoscopic treatment group,while 28 patients only received medication treatment as medication treatment group.Compare the effectiveness of endoscopic treatment and different endoscopic hemostatic methods for preventing rebleeding.Results There were no statistically significant differences in age,gender,clinical symptom,systolic pressure,hemoglobin concentration,and ulcer site between endoscopic and medication treatment patients (P>0.05).In terms of ulcer size,the length of ulcer in the endoscopic treatment group was smaller than that in the medication treatment group[(9.5±5.3) mm vs (12.8±7.7) mm],the difference was statistically significant (P=0.013).The rebleeding rate of medication treatment group was 21.4％ (6/28);Among the endoscopic treatment group,85 patients (98.8％,85/86) successfully underwent endoscopic treatment,with a rebleeding rate of 11.8％ (10/85),which was lower than that of medication treatment group,but the difference was not statistically significant (P=0.337).Among the patients who successfully underwent endoscopic treatment,62 cases were treated with injection of diluted adrenaline alone,6 cases with titanium clips,and 17 cases were treated with electrocoagulation or electrocoagulation combined with other hemostatic methods.The rebleeding rate were 12.9％ (8/62),16.7％ (1/6),and 5.9％ (1/17),respectively,which were lower than that of medication treatment patients,but the difference was not statistically significant (P=0.474).Due to the need for endoscopic treatment,15 patients were treated with a snare or thermal hemostatic forceps to remove the surface blood clot of the ulcer.Among them,3 cases had jet bleeding at the base (2 cases were successfully stopped by electrocoagulation;1 case had a large amount of bleeding,but endoscopic hemostasis failed,and intervention embolization successfully stopped the bleeding).Among of 16 patients with rebleeding,3 patients were treated with conservative management,and all of them were successfully stopped bleeding;6 cases underwent endoscopic treatment again,of which 4 cases were successfully hemostasis by endoscopy,and 2 cases were successfully hemostasis by surgery after endoscopic hemostasis failure;interventional embolization in 1 case,and successfully hemostasis;6 patients underwent direct surgical procedures,all of which successfully stopped bleeding,but one patient developed multiple organ failure during hospitalization and died without bleeding.Conclusion Endoscopic intervention can to some extent reduce the incidence of rebleeding in Forrest Ⅱb grade ulcers.The effect of electrocoagulation hemostasis on preventing rebleeding is better than that of injection dilution adrenaline method.However,there is a risk of iatrogenic rebleeding when removing blood clots on the surface of ulcers,and careful selection should be made when conditions permit.

Humans ; Endoscopic Ultrasound-Guided Fine Needle Aspiration ; Pancreatic Neoplasms ; Pancreas ; Needles

Contrast-induced encephalopathy(CIE)is a rare neurological complication of the intravascular application of a contrast media.The clinical manifestation of CIE which is easily misdiagnosed in clinical is not specific.Recently,with the extensive development of interventional diagnosis and therapy in different disciplines,case report of CIE patient is increasing yearly.At present,there is not a uniform diagnosis and treatment standard for CIE in China and abroad.Chinese Federation of Interventional Clinical Neurosciences organized relevant experts in China and developed the expert consensus,to provide suggestions and references for clinicians at all levels to prevent,identify and treat CIE.

Objective To explore the clinical value of endoscopic intervention in preventing rebleeding of Forrest Ⅱb grade ulcers.Method A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of 114 patients from January 2015 to April 2023 due to gastrointestinal bleeding,who were confirmed by gastroscopy as Forrest Ⅱb grade ulcers.86 (75.4％,86/114) patients received endoscopic treatment as endoscopic treatment group,while 28 patients only received medication treatment as medication treatment group.Compare the effectiveness of endoscopic treatment and different endoscopic hemostatic methods for preventing rebleeding.Results There were no statistically significant differences in age,gender,clinical symptom,systolic pressure,hemoglobin concentration,and ulcer site between endoscopic and medication treatment patients (P>0.05).In terms of ulcer size,the length of ulcer in the endoscopic treatment group was smaller than that in the medication treatment group[(9.5±5.3) mm vs (12.8±7.7) mm],the difference was statistically significant (P=0.013).The rebleeding rate of medication treatment group was 21.4％ (6/28);Among the endoscopic treatment group,85 patients (98.8％,85/86) successfully underwent endoscopic treatment,with a rebleeding rate of 11.8％ (10/85),which was lower than that of medication treatment group,but the difference was not statistically significant (P=0.337).Among the patients who successfully underwent endoscopic treatment,62 cases were treated with injection of diluted adrenaline alone,6 cases with titanium clips,and 17 cases were treated with electrocoagulation or electrocoagulation combined with other hemostatic methods.The rebleeding rate were 12.9％ (8/62),16.7％ (1/6),and 5.9％ (1/17),respectively,which were lower than that of medication treatment patients,but the difference was not statistically significant (P=0.474).Due to the need for endoscopic treatment,15 patients were treated with a snare or thermal hemostatic forceps to remove the surface blood clot of the ulcer.Among them,3 cases had jet bleeding at the base (2 cases were successfully stopped by electrocoagulation;1 case had a large amount of bleeding,but endoscopic hemostasis failed,and intervention embolization successfully stopped the bleeding).Among of 16 patients with rebleeding,3 patients were treated with conservative management,and all of them were successfully stopped bleeding;6 cases underwent endoscopic treatment again,of which 4 cases were successfully hemostasis by endoscopy,and 2 cases were successfully hemostasis by surgery after endoscopic hemostasis failure;interventional embolization in 1 case,and successfully hemostasis;6 patients underwent direct surgical procedures,all of which successfully stopped bleeding,but one patient developed multiple organ failure during hospitalization and died without bleeding.Conclusion Endoscopic intervention can to some extent reduce the incidence of rebleeding in Forrest Ⅱb grade ulcers.The effect of electrocoagulation hemostasis on preventing rebleeding is better than that of injection dilution adrenaline method.However,there is a risk of iatrogenic rebleeding when removing blood clots on the surface of ulcers,and careful selection should be made when conditions permit.

To compare the efficacy, safety and economic cost of endoscopic ultrasound (EUS)-guided puncture sclerotherapy and laparoscopic decapitation decompression for the renal cysts in the upper pole, data of patients with renal cysts in the upper pole who received EUS-guided puncture sclerotherapy (the EUS group, n=9) or laparoscopic decapitation decompression (the laparoscopy group, n=16) in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University from January 2021 to August 2022 were analyzed retrospectively. The effective rate, operation time, intraoperative blood loss, incidence of complications, hospital stay and treatment cost of the EUS group and the laparoscopy group were compared. Results showed that the effective rate was comparable in the EUS group and laparoscopy group (9/9 VS 14/16, P=0.520). The operation time was shorter (29.8±4.8 min VS 70.1±11.1 min, t=10.207, P<0.001), intraoperative blood loss less (0 mL VS 26.1±5.9 mL, t=13.089, P<0.001), postoperative hospital stay shorter (3.5±0.7 days VS 5.4±2.0 days, t=2.663, P=0.014), and total cost lower (10 547.85±2 388.19 yuan VS 15 316.09±5 352.45 yuan, t=2.517, P=0.019) in the EUS group compared with those in the laparoscopy group. There was no significant difference in the total hospital stay (8.1±2.0 days VS 9.3±3.1 days, t=1.019, P=0.319) or operation cost (3 946.79±490.82 yuan VS 3 860.18±857.42 yuan, t=-0.277, P=0.784) between the EUS group and laparoscopy group. There was 1 case of puncture bleeding, 1 case of hematuria, and 1 case of lumbago in the laparoscopy group, while no complication occurred in the EUS group. In conclusion, it is preliminarily believed that EUS-guided puncture sclerotherapy for renal cysts in the upper pole has similar clinical effects with higher safety, shorter postoperative hospital stay and lower total hospitalization cost compared with those of laparoscopic decapitation decompression, which is worth of clinical promotion.

Objective:To evaluate the preoperative localization value of endoscopic ultrasound guided fine needle tattooing (EUS-FNT) for laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy in pancreatic lesions with a maximum diameter ≤3 cm.Methods:From November 2017 to October 2022, at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, the data of patients with pancreatic lesions ≤3 cm who underwent laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy were retrospectively analyzed. Eight patients who underwent EUS-FNT assisted laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy were included in the fine needle tattooing (FNT) combined laparoscopic group. And 14 patients who underwent simple laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy were taken as the simple laparoscopic group. The success rate and complications of EUS-FNT were observed. The differences in operation time, surgery-related complications and complete resection rate of lesions between the two groups were compared. Mann-Whitney U test and descriptive analysis were used for statistical analysis. Results:In the FNT combined laparoscopic group, the lesions of 4 cases were located in the pancreatic body and 4 cases in the pancreatic tail. In the simple laparoscopic group, the lesions of 4 cases were located in the pancreatic body and 10 cases in the pancreatic tail. There was a significant difference in lesion size between the two groups (14.5 mm (10.8 mm, 16.5 mm) vs. 27.0 mm (23.5 mm, 30.0 mm), Z=-3.09, P=0.001). In the FNT combined laparoscopic group, EUS-FNT was successfully performed in all 8 patients. The average time of laparoscopy after EUS-FNT was (98.4±8.8) min. The marks were clearly visible under the laparoscopic field of view, and no complications such as abdominal hemorrhage and hematoma were observed. Laparoscopic pancreaticocaudectomy was performed in 5 cases and pancreaticocaudectomy plus splenectomy in 3 cases. The median operation time was 192.5 min (176.3 min, 203.8 min). The amount of intraoperative bleeding was large in 2 patients and blood transfusion was needed. The lesions were one-time completely resected in all 8 patients. The postoperative pathology were 6 cases of pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasm, 1 case of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN), and 1 case of solid pseudopapilloma. In the simple laparoscopic group, laparoscopic pancreaticocaudectomy was performed in 2 cases and pancreaticocaudectomy plus splenectomy in 12 cases. The median operation time was 202.5 min (192.8 min, 235.0 min), which was longer than that of FNT combined laparoscopic group, but the difference was not statistically significant ( P>0.05). The amount of intraoperative bleeding was large in 2 patients and blood transfusion was needed. In 1 patient with pancreatic body lesions, no lesion was found in the specimen examination after the first pancreatectomy, and the lesions were completely resected after the second partial pancreatectomy. Active abdominal hemorrhage occurred in 1 patient on the second day after operation, and underwent interventional embolization for hemostasis. Two weeks after surgery, 1 patient was found to have a encapsulated fluid with a long diameter of 6 cm around the pancreas by computed tomography re-examination 2 weeks after surgery. The postoperative pathology were 5 cases of pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasm, 2 cases of IPMN, 1 case of solid pseudopapilloma, 1 case of pancreatic cyst with glandular low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia, 1 case of ectopic spleen, and 4 cases of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. Conclusion:EUS-FNT can effectively localize small pancreatic lesions before laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy, shorten the operation time and improve the complete resection rate under laparoscopy.