1.Analysis of the incidence trend of inflammatory bowel disease in the elderly in China from 2002 to 2021 based on the Bayesian age-period-cohort model
Guilian LAN ; Yichao GAN ; Zhenhua ZHU
Chinese Journal of Inflammatory Bowel Diseases 2025;09(5):417-423
Objective:To describe the incidence trends of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) among the elderly in China from 2002 to 2021, estimate age-period-cohort (APC) effects, and predict future trends.Methods:Data on elderly IBD incidence and age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) from 2002 to 2021 were extracted from the global burden of disease study 2021 database. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) evaluated ASIR trends. APC and Bayesian APC (BAPC) models were used to analyze effects and predict incidence from 2022 to 2031. A sensitivity analysis was conducted by applying alternative hyperprior values (a=1, b=0.0005) to assess model stability.Results:From 2002 to 2021, ASIR increased from 0.186 per 100, 000 to 0.272 per 100, 000 (EAPC = 2.234%, 95% CI: 1.715%-2.756%). Age effects showed a downward-then-upward trend in males and a decline in females, with peak incidence at 60-<64 years. Period effects increased steadily in males, while females showed an initial rise followed by a decline. Cohort effects rose and then declined with successive birth cohorts. Projections suggest ASIR will continue to rise through 2031. Sensitivity analysis showed ASIR trends closely matched the main model, indicating robustness. Conclusion:The burden of IBD among older adults in China is increasing. Strengthened prevention, health education, and lifestyle promotion for those aged 60-<70 are recommended.
2.Analysis of the incidence trend of inflammatory bowel disease in the elderly in China from 2002 to 2021 based on the Bayesian age-period-cohort model
Guilian LAN ; Yichao GAN ; Zhenhua ZHU
Chinese Journal of Inflammatory Bowel Diseases 2025;09(5):417-423
Objective:To describe the incidence trends of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) among the elderly in China from 2002 to 2021, estimate age-period-cohort (APC) effects, and predict future trends.Methods:Data on elderly IBD incidence and age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) from 2002 to 2021 were extracted from the global burden of disease study 2021 database. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) evaluated ASIR trends. APC and Bayesian APC (BAPC) models were used to analyze effects and predict incidence from 2022 to 2031. A sensitivity analysis was conducted by applying alternative hyperprior values (a=1, b=0.0005) to assess model stability.Results:From 2002 to 2021, ASIR increased from 0.186 per 100, 000 to 0.272 per 100, 000 (EAPC = 2.234%, 95% CI: 1.715%-2.756%). Age effects showed a downward-then-upward trend in males and a decline in females, with peak incidence at 60-<64 years. Period effects increased steadily in males, while females showed an initial rise followed by a decline. Cohort effects rose and then declined with successive birth cohorts. Projections suggest ASIR will continue to rise through 2031. Sensitivity analysis showed ASIR trends closely matched the main model, indicating robustness. Conclusion:The burden of IBD among older adults in China is increasing. Strengthened prevention, health education, and lifestyle promotion for those aged 60-<70 are recommended.
3.Detection of F-actin autoantibodies in the serum of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus
Zhaoli WU ; Xiang LIU ; Huiqin YANG ; Yong NING ; Lan ZHAO ; Wei HUANG ; Guilian CHENG ; Yin XIONG ; Mei LI ; Ziyao QUAN ; Tianpen CUI
Chinese Journal of Rheumatology 2018;22(8):543-547
Objective To investigate the value of F-actin autoantibodies in the serum of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE),and to explore the relationships between F-actin autoantibodies and other clinical indicators.Methods ELISA was established to detect serum levels of F-actin autoantibodies in 93 inpatients with SLE from March 2017 to January 2018 (case group,n=93),72 patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) (disease control group) and 83 healthy subjects (healthy control group) were included during the same period.The positive rates of F-actin autoantibodies between the case group and the two control group were compared.Clinical data including SLE disease activity index (SLEDAI),immuno-globulin (lg)G,erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR),anti-dsDNA,and antinuclear antibody (ANA) of 93 patients with SLE were collected and the correlation analysis between F-actin autoantibodies units was applied respectively.The diagnostic performance of F-actin autoantibodies in SLE was analyzed by using the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC).T test,Chi-square test and Spearman/Pearson correlation analysis were applied for statistical analysis.Results The serum levels of F-actin autoantibodies in the SLE case group,disease control group,and healthy control group were (18±13),(12±6),and (11±5) U,respectively,the differences between SLE case group and disease control group,and healthy control group were significant (t=3.163,P=0.001 9;t=4.436,P<0.01).The positive rates of F-actin autoantibodies were 33%(31/93) in patients with SLE,10%(7/72) in disease control group,and 4%(3/83) in healthy control group.The F-actin autoanti-bodies units in SLE were correlated with SLEDAI,IgG,ESR,anti-dsDNA,and ANA (r=0.273 7,P=0.008 3;r=0.558 7,P<0.01;r=0.419 9,P=0.000 1,r=0.351 4,P=0.001 1,r=0.460 9,P<0.01),in which F-actin autoantibodies units showed significant correlation with IgG and ANA.In the ROC curve,the area under the curve(AUC) was 0.62 [95%CI(0.54,0.70)],P=0.001 3.which was statistically significant.When the cut-off value of the F-actin autoantibodies was 14.04 U,the Youden's index (YI) was the largest (YI=0.30),and the sen-sitivity for the diagnosis of SLE was 0.77,the specificity was 0.53.Conclusion The positive rate of F-actin autoantibodies in the serum of patients with SLE is higher than that of RA and healthy controls,so it has certain diagnostic value for SLE.The F-actin autoantibodies units is correlated with both SLEDAI,ESR,and anti-dsDNA,suggesting that F-actin autoantibodies units may be a new biomarker for disease activity assessment of SLE patients.
4.Clinical characteristics of gastric Dieulafoy's lesion and risk factors for rebleeding of 111 patients
Qiang WANG ; Shunhua LONG ; Weixiao HU ; Xu SHU ; Bimin LI ; Wangdi LIAO ; Guilian LAN ; Xuan ZHU ; Nonghua Lü ; Youxiang CHEN
China Journal of Endoscopy 2017;23(4):43-48
Objective Dieulafoy's lesion is a rare cause of upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The purpose of this study was to recognize the clinical characteristics of gastric Dieulafoy and to identify possible predictive factors of rebleeding. Methods Retrospective study of patients with gastrointestinal bleeding secondary to Dieulafoy's lesion from January 2009 to June 2016. We analyzed the clinical data and endoscopic findings and the correlated with rebleeding risk factors with Dieulafoy's lesion. Results 111 patients were included in the study, 97 (87.4%) patients were male; the most common location of the bleeding lesions were Proximal stomach of 53 cases (47.7%); According to the Forrest type, 46.8% of the cases were arterial (spurting), 52.3% of the cases were arterial (oozing), there were 101 (91.0%) patients treated by endoscopic combined drug therapy. The success rate of Endoscopic hemostatic treatment was 84.2%, endoscopic hemostatic treatment success rate was as follows: single endoscopic, 85.0%; two endoscopic, 84.8%; three endoscopic, 75.0%. The hemostatic treatment success rate of 101 patients with endoscopic combined drug was as follows: Proximal stomach, 83.7%; mid-stomach, 82.1%; and distal stomach, 88.9%. Age (P = 0.002) and blood transfusion (P = 0.004) were risk factors for rebleeding in the study. Blood transfusion was associated with a higher recurrence rate for bleeding (P = 0.018, OR=37.77, 95% CI = 1.86~766.47) for 101 patients with endoscopic in combination with drug. Conclusion Endoscopic therapy is effective for treating Dieulafoy's lesion. The blood transfusion was associated with a high rate of bleeding recurrence. There were no significant differences between the rebleeding and non-rebleeding groups with respect to bleeding location or hemostatic methods.

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