OBJECTIVES: To analyze the disease burden of melanoma among middle-aged and elderly populations in China, and to predict the future trend. METHODS: Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 were utilized to collect incidence and mortality rates of melanoma, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and corresponding age crude rates among the middle-aged and elderly population in China during 1990 and 2021. Additionally, the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was employed to assess the temporal trends. Age-period-cohort (APC) and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models were utilized to compute age, period, and cohort effects on incidence and mortality rates of melanoma, as well as to predict future trends up to 2035. RESULTS: During 1990-2021, the incidence rate of melanoma for males was higher than that for females among the middle-aged and elderly population in China, and the overall incidence rate increased annually with an EAPC of 2.13 (1.90-2.36), while the overall mortality rate and DALY rate showed a declining trend with an EAPC of －0.28 (－0.41-－0.15) and －0.54 (－0.68-－0.41), respectively. The results of the APC model analysis revealed that age effects on both incidence and mortality rates of melanoma in China's middle-aged and elderly population were significant, with both increasing with age. Period and cohort effects showed an upward trend for incidence rates but a downward trend for mortality rates. Moreover, the period and cohort effects for mortality rates were not significant among females. In the BAPC prediction model, the number of incidences of melanoma in middle-aged and elderly people in China would increase dramatically. By 2035, the number of incidence cases is expected to reach approximately 9600 (males) and 10 300 (females), corresponding to an incidence rate of 2.66/10⁵ and 2.67/10⁵, respectively. The number of deaths is projected to be about 2600 (males) and 3500 (females) by 2035, corresponding to a mortality rate of 0.72/10⁵ and 0.91/10⁵, respectively. CONCLUSIONS The disease burden of melanoma among the middle-aged and elderly population in China remains substantial and is expected to increase over the next decade.
Humans ; Melanoma/mortality* ; China/epidemiology* ; Aged ; Middle Aged ; Male ; Female ; Incidence ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Bayes Theorem ; Cost of Illness ; Skin Neoplasms/epidemiology*

Objective:To observe the efficacy of 3D printing-assisted hematoma puncture and drainage in the treatment of hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage and to explore the factors affecting postoperative brain dysfunction.Methods:A retrospective Case-control study was conducted to select 168 hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage patients who were treated with 3D printing assisted hematoma puncture and drainage in the People′s Hospital of Yuechi County from January 2020 to September 2022 as the observation group, and 125 hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage patients who were treated with CT guided hematoma puncture and drainage in the People′s Hospital of Yuechi County at the same time as the control group. The clinical efficacy of the two groups of patients was compared. According to the occurrence of postoperative brain dysfunction, the patients in the observation group were divided into normal brain function group ( n=121) and brain dysfunction group ( n=47). The clinical data of age, preoperative cerebral hernia, blood loss, ventilator-assisted ventilation, postoperative Glasgow coma index score (GCS) and postoperative complications were compared between the two groups. Multivariate Logistic regression was used to analyze the factors affecting postoperative brain dysfunction in the observation group, and a line chart model was constructed and its predictive efficiency was evaluated. The measurement data of normal distribution is expressed as mean ± standard deviation ( ± s), and independent sample t-test is used for inter group comparison. Chi-square test was used for comparison between count data groups. Results:The proportion of the drainage tube in the hematoma, hematoma clearance rate at 3 and 7 days after surgery, total effective rate of treatment, and GCS score at 1 week after surgery in the observation group were 88.69%(149/168), 54.17%(91/168), 96.43%(162/168), 92.86%(156/168), and 10.72±3.45, respectively, the control group was 75.20%(94/125), 36.80%(46/125), 81.60%(102/125), 76.80%(96/125), and 9.08±3.22, respectively, the difference between the two groups was statistically significant ( P<0.05). Advanced age ( OR=1.983, 95% CI: 1.169-2.732, P=0.017), preoperative cerebral hernia ( OR=1.532, 95% CI: 1.113-2.139, P=0.029), bleeding volume ≥ 50 mL ( OR=2.538, 95% CI: 1.802-3.347, P=0.003), postoperative GCS score 3-5 ( OR=2.874, 95% CI: 2.265-3.449, P<0.001), postoperative hypoxemia ( OR=2.251, 95% CI: 1.673-2.842, P=0.010) and postoperative chronic hydrocephalus ( OR=1.642, 95% CI: 1.214-2.021, P=0.022) were risk factors for postoperative brain dysfunction, while ventilator-assisted ventilation ( OR=0.656, 95% CI: 0.132-0.828, P=0.038) was protective factors. The internal verification of the line chart model by Bootstrap resampling method shows that the model has high differentiation, accuracy and validity. Conclusion:The application of 3D printing-assisted localization in hematoma puncture and drainage can improve the puncture condition and the hematoma clearance rate and clinical effect of patients with hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage. Advanced age, preoperative cerebral hernia and bleeding volume are related to postoperative brain dysfunction. Clinical attention should be paid to patients with risk indicators of postoperative brain dysfunction.