1.Clinical characteristics of elderly patients with sepsis and development and evaluation of death risk assessment scale.
Fubo DONG ; Liwen LUO ; Dejiang HONG ; Yi YAO ; Kai PENG ; Wenjin LI ; Guangju ZHAO
Chinese Critical Care Medicine 2025;37(1):17-22
OBJECTIVE:
To analyze the clinical characteristics of elderly patients with sepsis, identify the key factors affecting their clinical outcomes, construct a death risk assessment scale for elderly patients with sepsis, and evaluate its predictive value.
METHODS:
A retrospective case-control study was conducted. The clinical data of sepsis patients admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) of the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University from September 2021 to September 2023 were collected, including basic information, clinical characteristics, and clinical outcomes. The patients were divided into non-elderly group (age ≥ 65 years old) and elderly group (age < 65 years old) based on age. Additionally, the elderly patients were divided into survival group and death group based on their 30-day survival status. The clinical characteristics of elderly patients with sepsis were analyzed. Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses were used to screen the independent risk factors for 30-day death in elderly patients with sepsis, and the regression equation was constructed. The regression equation was simplified, and the death risk assessment scale was established. The predictive value of different scores for the prognosis of elderly patients with sepsis was compared.
RESULTS:
(1) A total of 833 patients with sepsis were finally enrolled, including 485 in the elderly group and 348 in the non-elderly group. Compared with the non-elderly group, the elderly group showed significantly lower counts of lymphocyte, T cell, CD8+ T cell, and the ratio of T cells and CD8+ T cells [lymphocyte count (×109/L): 0.71 (0.43, 1.06) vs. 0.83 (0.53, 1.26), T cell count (cells/μL): 394.0 (216.0, 648.0) vs. 490.5 (270.5, 793.0), CD8+ T cell count (cells/μL): 126.0 (62.0, 223.5) vs. 180.0 (101.0, 312.0), T cell ratio: 0.60 (0.48, 0.70) vs. 0.64 (0.51, 0.75), CD8+ T cell ratio: 0.19 (0.13, 0.28) vs. 0.24 (0.16, 0.34), all P < 0.01], higher natural killer cell (NK cell) count, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) score, ratio of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) during hospitalization, and 30-day mortality [NK cell count (cells/μL): 112.0 (61.0, 187.5) vs. 95.0 (53.0, 151.0), APACHE II score: 16.00 (12.00, 21.00) vs. 13.00 (8.00, 17.00), IMV ratio: 40.6% (197/485) vs. 31.9% (111/348), 30-day mortality: 28.9% (140/485) vs. 19.5% (68/348), all P < 0.05], and longer length of ICU stay [days: 5.5 (3.0, 10.0) vs. 5.0 (3.0, 8.0), P < 0.05]. There were no statistically significant differences in the levels of inflammatory markers such as C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), interferon-γ (IFN-γ), and interleukins (IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, IL-10) between the two groups. (2) In 485 elderly patients with sepsis, 345 survived in 30 days, and 140 died with the 30-day mortality of 28.9%. Compared with the survival group, the patients in the death group were older, and had lower body mass index (BMI), white blood cell count (WBC), PCT, platelet count (PLT) and higher IL-6, IL-10, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), total bilirubin (TBil), blood lactic acid (Lac), and ratio of in-hospital IMV and continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis indicated that BMI [odds ratio (OR) = 0.783, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 0.678-0.905, P = 0.001], IL-6 (OR = 1.073, 95%CI was 1.004-1.146, P = 0.036), TBil (OR = 1.009, 95%CI was 1.000-1.018, P = 0.045), Lac (OR = 1.211, 95%CI was 1.072-1.367, P = 0.002), and IMV during hospitalization (OR = 6.181, 95%CI was 2.214-17.256, P = 0.001) were independent risk factors for 30-day death in elderly patients with sepsis, and the regression equation was constructed (Logit P = 1.012-0.244×BMI+0.070×IL-6+0.009×TBil+0.190×Lac+1.822×IMV). The regression equation was simplified to construct a death risk assessment scale, namely BITLI score. Receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) analysis showed that the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of BITLI score for predicting death risk was 0.852 (95%CI was 0.769-0.935), and it was higher than APACHE II score (AUC = 0.714, 95%CI was 0.623-0.805) and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score (AUC = 0.685, 95%CI was 0.578-0.793). The determined cut-off value of BITLI score was 1.50, while achieving a sensitivity of 83.3% and specificity of 74.0%.
CONCLUSIONS
Elderly patients with sepsis often have reduced lymphocyte counts, severe conditions, and poor prognosis. BMI, IL-6, TBil, Lac, and IMV during hospitalization were independent risk factors for 30-day death in elderly patients with sepsis. The BITLI score constructed based above risk factors is more precise and reliable than traditional APACHE II and SOFA scores in predicting the outcomes of elderly patients with sepsis.
Humans
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Sepsis/mortality*
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Aged
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Retrospective Studies
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Risk Assessment
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Case-Control Studies
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Prognosis
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Male
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Female
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Intensive Care Units
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Risk Factors
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Aged, 80 and over
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Logistic Models
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Middle Aged
2.Research progress on the classification of sepsis and sepsis-related organ dysfunction.
Chinese Critical Care Medicine 2025;37(4):402-406
Sepsis is a life-threatening organ dysfunction syndrome caused by a dysregulated host response to infection. Due to different infection sources, pathogens and basic conditions of patients, there is significant heterogeneity in clinical manifestations, response to treatment and prognosis of patients with sepsis. Accurate classification and individualized treatment of sepsis will help to further improve the prognosis of patients with sepsis. In recent years, the integration of artificial intelligence and bioinformatics has brought new opportunities for the research of sepsis classification. This review systematically introduces a variety of sepsis classification methods and their clinical application value. The clinical data in the electronic medical record, such as the dynamic changes of vital signs such as body temperature, can be used as the basis for sepsis classification. Different subtypes of body temperature trajectories have differences in physiological characteristics and prognosis, which contributes to predict the prognosis of patients and guide fluid management strategies. Biomarker classification can more comprehensively reflect the pathophysiological state of patients. Immune index classification is helpful to identify immunocompromised patients so as to carry out targeted immunotherapy. Transcriptome data and genotyping reveal the heterogeneity of sepsis at the molecular level and provide a new perspective for precision medicine. In addition, a detailed systematic review of sepsis-related organ function damage, such as acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), acute kidney injury (AKI), and acute liver injury, has also been conducted, which is helpful to develop targeted organ protection and treatment strategies. These typing methods have shown good application prospects in clinical practice. However, there are still limitations in the current research, such as typing stability and biomarker selection, which need to be further explored. Future research should focus on the development of stable and efficient typing tools to achieve precise treatment of sepsis and improve the prognosis of patients.
Humans
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Sepsis/classification*
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Multiple Organ Failure/classification*
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Prognosis
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Artificial Intelligence
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Biomarkers
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Computational Biology
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Respiratory Distress Syndrome
3.The practice of the "three-dimensional closed-loop" emergency system in the guarantee of the Asian Games in Wenzhou
Guangju ZHAO ; Ling JI ; Xinqun LI ; Zhongqiu LU
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine 2023;32(12):1641-1644
Objective:The regional emergency system needs to maintain normal operation in disasters and sudden public health events, ensuring the timely treatment of critically ill patients, and also bearing the responsibility of ensuring various large-scale sports events. This article explores the practice of the "three-dimensional closed-loop" emergency system in the guarantee of the Hangzhou Asian Games in Wenzhou.Methods:After analyzing and integrating existing medical resources, the First Hospital Affiliated to Wenzhou Medical University conducted a two-year medical emergency exercise in a simulated urban road and natural water environment, and improved and optimized the weak links in the medical security system.Results:The hospital established a "three-dimensional closed-loop" emergency system and completed the medical support tasks for the Asian Games. The "three-dimensional closed-loop" emergency rescue system adopted a three-dimensional management team that combined a decentralized organizational structure and a professional medical team, and also has a land-air-sea emergency rescue team. By combining manpower and information technology, the system could provide "4R" medical services: real-time perception of medical emergencies in venues, rapid assessment of the patient's condition, rapid transfer of patients and rapid deployment of medical forces within the hospital. In addition, closed-loop management of the hospital's diagnosis and treatment process improved patients' satisfaction during the treatment process.Conclusions:The the "three-dimensional closed-loop" emergency system provided a strong guarantee for the successful holding of the Hangzhou Asian Games in Wenzhou and also accumulates experience for future urban emergency rescue.
4.Effect of early continuous renal replacement therapy on in-hospital mortality of patients with sepsis
Junjie FANG ; Qianfeng CHEN ; Chensong CHEN ; Guangju ZHAO ; Zhongqiu LU
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine 2023;32(1):59-64
Objective:To investigate the effect of early continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) within 24 h on in-hospital mortality in patients with sepsis.Methods:This study retrospectively analyzed the patients diagnosed as sepsis in the Emergency Intensive Care Unit of the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University from January 2013 to December 2017. According to the prognosis, the patients were divided into the survival group and death group. The clinical baseline data of the two groups were compared, and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to screen out the risk factors of death in patients with sepsis and evaluate the effect of CRRT on mortality. According to whether CRRT was performed within 24 h after admission, the patients were divided into the CRRT group and non-CRRT group to compare fluid balance.Results:Among the 612 patients, 416 (67.9%) patients were male, the median age was 66 years; 362 patients survived and 250 patients died, with a mortality rate of 40.8%. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the independent risk factors for death in patients with sepsis were: sex, simplified acute physiology score Ⅱ, sequential organ failure assessment, lactate, procalcitonin, and complicated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that patients received CRRT within 24 h had a higher risk of mortality ( OR=1.981 95% CI: 1.120-3.504, P=0.019). There was a statistically significant difference in fluid balance between the CRRT group and the non-CRRT group on the first day ( P<0.05), and there was no significant difference in total fluid balance in the first 3 days ( P>0.05). Conclusions:Early CRRT within 24 h cannot reduce the in-hospital mortality of patients with sepsis. The failure of CRRT which did not timely correct the volume overload state of patients with sepsis after fluid resuscitation may affect the outcome.
5.Clinical characteristics of patients with paraquat mixed with diquat poisoning
Xiaorong CHEN ; Xiaoying DU ; Huanle YE ; Hu TANG ; Yahui TANG ; Longwang CHEN ; Jie LIAN ; Bin WU ; Guangju ZHAO ; Zhongqiu LU
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine 2023;32(2):203-209
Objective:To explore the clinical characteristics of patients with paraquat mixed with diquat poisoning.Methods:The clinical data of 145 patients with paraquat mixed with diquat poisoning admitted to the Department of Emergency of the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University from January 20, 2016 to March 31, 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. According to the detection results of plasma toxicants in patients with poisoning, the patients were divided into the paraquat diquat mixed group (mixed group), paraquat group (PQ group) and diquat group (DQ group). The clinical indexes, organ dysfunction, different poisoning doses and prognosis of the three groups were compared. Patients in the mixed group were divided into the survival group and death group according to their 90-day survival, and the differences of each index between the two groups were compared. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was conducted for each index. After Log-rank test, multivariate Cox regression was used to analyze the risk factors of death in the mixed group.Results:A total of 31 patients were included in the mixed group, 92 patients in the PQ group, and 22 patients in the DQ group. There were significant differences in age, toxic dose, number of organ dysfunction, PSS score and APACHE II score among the three groups ( P<0.05). The main injured organs of the mixed group were gastrointestinal tract, kidney, liver, lung and nervous system. The proportion of organ damage in the mixed group was higher than that in the PQ group and DQ group. The white blood cell count, neutrophil count, HB, creatinine, AST, lactic acid, PT and APTT were statistically significant among the three groups ( P<0.05). In the mixed group, patients taking oral administration of < 20 mL all survived; 8 patients taking oral administration of 20 -50 mL died; 11 patients took oral administration of 51-100 mL and 8 (72.7%) died; and 10 patients took oral administration of more than 100 mL and 9 patients (90%) died. In the mixed group, patients with the concentration of diquat > 5000 ng/mL died. Among 31 patients with mixed poisoning, 30 patients (96.78%) had significantly higher concentrations of diquat than paraquat. There were no significant differences in sex, age, time from poisoning to hospitalization, ingestion amount, lymphocyte count, Hb, BNU, CK, total bilirubin, PH, and PT between the survival group and the death group ( P>0.05). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the ingestion amount, plasma PQ concentration at admission, plasma DQ concentration at admission, and lactic acid were independent risk factors for death ( P<0.05). Conclusions:Paraquat mixed with diquat can cause multiple organ function damage. The main damaged organs are gastrointestinal tract, kidney, liver, lung and nervous system. Compared with PQ or DQ poisoning, mixed poisoning has a higher incidence of organ damage, a more serious condition, and a higher mortality rate. Ingestion amount, plasma PQ concentration at admission, plasma DQ concentration at admission and lactic acid were independent factors influencing the prognosis of mixed poisoning.
6.Clinical characteristics and prognostic risk factors of patients with colchicine poisoning
Jiajia LI ; Yahui TANG ; Danyang WU ; Xiaorong CHEN ; Longwang CHEN ; Bin WU ; Guangju ZHAO ; Zhongqiu LU
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine 2023;32(2):210-214
Objective:To explore the clinical characteristics of patients with colchicine poisoning, and analyze the risk factors affecting the prognosis of colchicine poisoning and its value in the prognostic assessment.Methods:Patients with colchicine poisoning admitted to the Emergency Intensive Care Unit of the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University from December 2017 to October 2022 were retrospectively included and divided into the survival group and death group according to the 14-d outcome. The general conditions of the two groups of patients were compared, and the clinical characteristics of patients with colchicine poisoning were analyzed. The differences of laboratory indexes, electrocardiogram, cardiac ultrasound and other clinical indexes during the first admission of patients between the two groups were compared, and their value in the prognosis evaluation of patients with colchicine poisoning was explored.Results:There were 41 patients with colchicine poisoning, aged 15-85 years, including 35 males and 6 females. There were 27 patients (65.9%) in the survival group and 14 patients (34.1%) in the death group, including accumulative poisoning (58.7%) and suicide poisoning (41.3%). The main clinical manifestations of patients with colchicine poisoning were gastrointestinal symptoms (82.93%), multiple organ dysfunction (78.05%), infectious fever (73.17%), myocardial damage (48.78%), coagulation dysfunction (46.34%), and bone marrow suppression (41.46%). Intestinal obstruction (19.51%) and rhabdomyolysis (2.44%) occurred in some patients. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that the increase in absolute value of QTc interval ( OR=1.028, 95% CI: 1.000~1.056, P<0.05), lactic acid ( OR=1.599, 95% CI: 1.088~2.350, P<0.05), prothrombin time ( OR=1.205, 95% CI: 1.002~1.450, P<0.05), D-dimer ( OR=1.242, 95% CI: 1.089~1.417, P<0.05), and alkaline phosphatase ( OR=1.013, 95% CI: 1.002~1.024, P<0.05) were the risk factors for the prognosis of patients with colchicine poisoning. The decrease in the absolute value of ADL score ( OR=0.947, 95% CI: 0.909~0.988, P<0.05) and indirect bilirubin ( OR=0.756, 95% CI: 0.572~0.999, P<0.05) were the protective factors for the prognosis of patients with colchicine poisoning. D-dimer (AUC=0.913), lactic acid (AUC= 0.875) and alkaline phosphatase (AUC=0.770) had predictive value for the prognosis of patients with colchicine poisoning, and their cut-off values were 8.965 mg/L, 4.05 mmol/L and 230.5 U/L, respectively. Conclusions:The patients with colchicine poisoning have multiple organ dysfunction on admission, and are in a critical condition. The early levels of D-dimer, lactic acid and alkaline phosphatase could effectively predict the prognosis of patients with colchicine poisoning.
7.The value of systemic immune inflammation index in predicting the risk of hospital death in critically ill patients
Yuanwen YE ; Feifei LI ; Linglong CHEN ; Xinguo CHEN ; Zhongqiu LU ; Guangju ZHAO
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine 2023;32(3):365-370
Objective:To explore the predictive value of systemic immune inflammation index (SII) for the risk of hospital death in critically ill patients.Methods:The basic information and clinical data of critically ill patients were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care database-Ⅳ (MIMIC-IV) database, including demographic data, vital signs, blood routine, Logistic organ dysfunction score (Lods), Oxford acute severity of illness score (Oasis), simplified acute physiology score (Saps-Ⅱ), acute physiology score Ⅲ (APS-Ⅲ), sequential organ failure score (SOFA) and outcome. The main outcome was hospital death, and the secondary outcomes were length of hospital stay, continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT), invasive ventilation and 1-year mortality. Patients were divided into two groups according to in-hospital death, and the differences between the groups were compared. According to the SII tripartite for inter-group comparison, the patients were further divided into three groups for comparison, and Logistic regression model was used to analyze the odd ratio ( OR) of the three groups. Results:A total of 32 450 critically ill patients were included in the study, of which 3765 died in hospital, with a mortality rate of 11.6%. ① Compared with the survival group, the SII in the death group were significantly higher ( P < 0.05). ② The mortality for the SII tripartite grouping (<817; 817~2 151; >2 151) were 8.4%, 10.2% and 16.3%, respectively, and the differences between groups were statistically significant. ③ Further, Logistic regression model analysis showed that the risk of death increased gradually with the increase of groups (the first group was the reference group, OR of the second group was 1.38, 95% CI 1.24-1.54, and OR of the third group was 2.03, 95% CI 1.83-2.24 ( P < 0.05). Conclusions:SII has a certain value in predicting hospital death in critically ill patients. It is easy to obtain and can be used for risk stratification of critically ill patients.
8.Protective role and mechanism of tubastatin A on renal and intestinal injuries after cardiopulmonary resuscitation in swine.
Xinjie WU ; Xue ZHAO ; Qijiang CHEN ; Ying LIU ; Jiefeng XU ; Guangju ZHOU ; Mao ZHANG
Chinese Critical Care Medicine 2023;35(4):398-403
OBJECTIVE:
To investigate the protective effect and potential mechanism of tubastatin A (TubA), a specific inhibitor of histone deacetylase 6 (HDAC6), on renal and intestinal injuries after cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) in swine.
METHODS:
Twenty-five healthy male white swine were divided into Sham group (n = 6), CPR model group (n = 10) and TubA intervention group (n = 9) using a random number table. The porcine model of CPR was reproduced by 9-minute cardiac arrest induced by electrical stimulation via right ventricle followed by 6-minute CPR. The animals in the Sham group only underwent the regular operation including endotracheal intubation, catheterization, and anesthetic monitoring. At 5 minutes after successful resuscitation, a dose of 4.5 mg/kg of TubA was infused via the femoral vein within 1 hour in the TubA intervention group. The same volume of normal saline was infused in the Sham and CPR model groups. Venous samples were collected before modeling and 1, 2, 4, 24 hours after resuscitation, and the levels of serum creatinine (SCr), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), intestinal fatty acid binding protein (I-FABP) and diamine oxidase (DAO) in serum were determined by enzyme-linked immunoadsordent assay (ELISA). At 24 hours after resuscitation, the upper pole of left kidney and terminal ileum were harvested to detect cell apoptosis by TdT-mediated dUTP-biotin nick end labeling (TUNEL), and the expression levels of receptor-interacting protein 3 (RIP3) and mixed lineage kinase domain-like protein (MLKL) were detected by Western blotting.
RESULTS:
After resuscitation, renal dysfunction and intestinal mucous injury were observed in the CPR model and TubA intervention groups when compared with the Sham group, which was indicated by significantly increased levels of SCr, BUN, I-FABP and DAO in serum. However, the serum levels of SCr and DAO starting 1 hour after resuscitation, the serum levels of BUN starting 2 hours after resuscitation, and the serum levels of I-FABP starting 4 hours after resuscitation were significantly decreased in the TubA intervention group when compared with the CPR model group [1-hour SCr (μmol/L): 87±6 vs. 122±7, 1-hour DAO (kU/L): 8.1±1.2 vs. 10.3±0.8, 2-hour BUN (mmol/L): 12.3±1.2 vs. 14.7±1.3, 4-hour I-FABP (ng/L): 661±39 vs. 751±38, all P < 0.05]. The detection of tissue samples indicated that cell apoptosis and necroptosis in the kidney and intestine at 24 hours after resuscitation were significantly greater in the CPR model and TubA intervention groups when compared with the Sham group, which were indicated by significantly increased apoptotic index and markedly elevated expression levels of RIP3 and MLKL. Nevertheless, compared with the CPR model group, renal and intestinal apoptotic indexes at 24 hours after resuscitation in the TubA intervention group were significantly decreased [renal apoptosis index: (21.4±4.6)% vs. (55.2±9.5)%, intestinal apoptosis index: (21.3±4.5)% vs. (50.9±7.0)%, both P < 0.05], and the expression levels of RIP3 and MLKL were significantly reduced [renal tissue: RIP3 protein (RIP3/GAPDH) was 1.11±0.07 vs. 1.39±0.17, MLKL protein (MLKL/GAPDH) was 1.20±0.14 vs. 1.51±0.26; intestinal tissue: RIP3 protein (RIP3/GAPDH) was 1.24±0.18 vs. 1.69±0.28, MLKL protein (MLKL/GAPDH) was 1.38±0.15 vs. 1.80±0.26, all P < 0.05].
CONCLUSIONS
TubA has the protective effect on alleviating post-resuscitation renal dysfunction and intestinal mucous injury, and its mechanism may be related to inhibition of cell apoptosis and necroptosis.
Male
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Animals
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Swine
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Abdominal Injuries
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Apoptosis
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Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation
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Kidney Diseases
9.Risk factors analysis and early warning evaluation model construction of disease severity in patients with dangerous upper gastrointestinal bleeding
Xinqun LI ; Xinyi CHEN ; Xinlu WANG ; Longwang CHEN ; Guangliang HONG ; Guangju ZHAO ; Zhongqiu LU
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine 2022;31(4):539-543
Objective:To explore the influencing factors of severity of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) and to establish the early warning evaluation model in the form of line chart, so as to provide a feasible basis for emergency nurses' triage.Methods:A total of 680 UGIB patients admitted to the Emergency Department of the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University from January 2019 to January 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. They were divided into a modeling group ( n=510) and a validation group ( n=170) by random number table method, and were divided into a high-risk group and a low-risk group according to the expert Consensus on Emergency Diagnosis and Treatment Procedures for Acute Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding in 2020. The differences of various indicators between groups were compared, the factors affecting the severity of the disease were analyzed by Logistic regression, and the nomogram was drawn and validated. Results:Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that hematemesis ( OR=3.875, 95% CI: 2.212-6.79), diabetes ( OR=2.64, 95% CI: 1.184-5.883), syncope ( OR=10.57, 95% CI: 3.675-30.403), heart rate ( OR=3.262, 95% CI: 1.753-6.068), red blood cell distribution width ( OR=3.904, 95% CI: 2.176-7.007), prothrombin time ( OR=3.665, 95% CI: 1.625-8.269), lactic acid ( OR=3.498, 95% CI: 1.926-6.354) and hemoglobin ( OR=4.984, 95% CI: 2.78-8.938) were the influencing factors of the severity of UGIB patients ( P < 0.05). The nomogram model showed good consistency and differentiation (C-index=0.903, 95% CI: 0.875-0.931), and was verified internally (C-index=0.895) and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test ( P=0.7936). Externally verified C-index was 0.899 (95% CI: 0.846-0.952). The calibration curve prompt warning evaluation model had good stability and the prediction efficiency was better than the modified early warning score ( P < 0.05). Conclusions:The early warning evaluation model has a reliable predictive value, which can provide a reference for emergency medical staff to screen high-risk patients and formulate targeted nursing interventions.
10.Predictive value of early platelet count dynamic changes for prognosis of sepsis patients
Chensong CHEN ; Junjie FANG ; Qianfeng CHEN ; Guangju ZHAO ; Zhongqiu LU
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine 2022;31(5):665-671
Objective:To explore the value of early dynamic changes of platelet count (PLT) in evaluating the prognosis of sepsis patients.Methods:A retrospective study was conducted to select sepsis patients admitted to the Emergency Intensive Care Unit (EICU) of the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University from January 2013 to December 2017. The sepsis patients were divided into the survival group and death group according to the 28-day prognosis after EICU admission. The basic and clinical data of the two groups of patients were compared, and the risk factors for the 28-day prognosis of sepsis patients were screened, and the value of platelet change (ΔPLT) in the prognosis of sepsis was evaluated.Results:A total of 549 sepsis patients were included, 184 died within 28 days, and 365 survived, with a 28-day mortality rate of 33.5%. Compared with the survival group, the death group had a higher proportion of males, were older, and had more chronic diseases and tumors such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD); simplified acute physiology score Ⅱ (SAPS-Ⅱ), sequential organ failure score (SOFA), procalcitonin, C-reactive protein, blood urea nitrogen, fibrinogen, and mean arterial pressure were lower, the PLT was lower on d1-5, the value of ΔPLT d2-5 were decreased more significantly, and the platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) value was higher, and the difference was statistically significant ( P<0.05). However, there was no significant difference in mean platelet volume and platelet distribution width between the two groups (all P>0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that COPD ( OR=4.167, 95% CI: 1.769-9.815, P<0.001), malignant tumor ( OR=1.815, 95% CI: 1.034-3.817, P=0.038), SAPS-Ⅱ score ( OR=1.071, 95% CI: 1.046-1.096, P<0.001), SOFA score ( OR=1.060, 95% CI: 1.001-1.021, P=0.041), and PLR value ( OR=1.001, 95% CI: 1.001-1.002, P<0.001) were independent risk factors affecting the 28-day prognosis of sepsis patients. PLT d1 ( OR=0.996, 95% CI: 0.995-0.998, P<0.001) was a protective factor for better prognosis in sepsis patients. The ROC curve analysis showed that the SAPS-Ⅱ score and SOFA score could predict the 28-day ICU prognosis of sepsis patients, and the SAPS-Ⅱ score had the largest area under the ROC curve (AUC=0.726). The AUC (0.678) of ΔPLT d4 was greater than those of the other days. When the optimal critical value was -26.5×10 9/L, the sensitivity was 57.8% and the specificity was 71.7%. Conclusions:The early dynamic changes of PLT are closely related to the prognosis of sepsis patients, which is worthy of clinical reference and promotion.

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