1.Construction and validation of a risk prediction model for post-operative venous thrombosis in patients with non-small cell lung cancer
Chen CHUNYU ; Gu JIANGKUI ; Zhou JING ; Ge SHENGLIN
Chinese Journal of Clinical Oncology 2025;52(7):338-344
Objective:To investigate the risk factors for postoperative venous thromboembolism(VTE)in patients with non-small cell lung cancer(NSCLC),and establish a nomogram model for the accurate prediction of high-risk individuals.Methods:A total of 472 patients with NSCLC who underwent radical surgical resection in The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University from June 2019 to December 2023 were included in the study.All patients were randomly assigned to the modeling group(n=332)or the internal validation group(n=140)at a ratio of 7∶3.In addition,200 patients with NSCLC admitted to Fuyang Hospital Affiliated with Anhui Medical University during the same period were randomly selected as the external validation group.To analyze the risk factors for post-operative VTE,patients in the modeling group were further assigned to the VTE group(n=58)or the non-VTE group(n=274),and the demographic data,clinicopathological features,and laboratory test results of the two groups were compared.Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors for VTE and to construct a nomogram model to predict VTE risk.The predictive ability of the model was evaluated using receiver op-erating characteristic(ROC)and calibration curves.Results:The incidence of post-operative VTE in patients with NSCLC was 16.9%.Patients in the VTE group were older(P=0.006),had a more advanced TNM stage(P<0.001),had more frequent vascular invasion(P=0.001),and had a longer duration of surgery(P=0.033)than patients in the non-VTE group.In addition,there were significant differences between patients in the VTE and non-VTE groups for pre-operative activated partial thromboplastin time(APTT)(P=0.003),D-dimer level(P<0.001),and serum carcinoembryonic antigen(CEA)level(P=0.029).Age,TNM stage,and pre-operative D-dimer level were independent risk factors for VTE in patients with NSCLC.Based on these four variables,a nomogram model was developed to predict the risk of post-operative VTE.The areas under the ROC curves for the modeling,internal validation,and external validation groups were 0.836,0.871,and 0.864,respectively.The calibration curve indicates a high degree of consistency between the predicted risks of the model and the actual risks that occur.Conclu-sions:The nomogram model based on age,TNM stage,operative time,and pre-operative D-dimer level can effectively identify individuals at risk of VTE,and it promises to be a valuable tool for risk assessment.
2.Construction and validation of a risk prediction model for post-operative venous thrombosis in patients with non-small cell lung cancer
Chen CHUNYU ; Gu JIANGKUI ; Zhou JING ; Ge SHENGLIN
Chinese Journal of Clinical Oncology 2025;52(7):338-344
Objective:To investigate the risk factors for postoperative venous thromboembolism(VTE)in patients with non-small cell lung cancer(NSCLC),and establish a nomogram model for the accurate prediction of high-risk individuals.Methods:A total of 472 patients with NSCLC who underwent radical surgical resection in The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University from June 2019 to December 2023 were included in the study.All patients were randomly assigned to the modeling group(n=332)or the internal validation group(n=140)at a ratio of 7∶3.In addition,200 patients with NSCLC admitted to Fuyang Hospital Affiliated with Anhui Medical University during the same period were randomly selected as the external validation group.To analyze the risk factors for post-operative VTE,patients in the modeling group were further assigned to the VTE group(n=58)or the non-VTE group(n=274),and the demographic data,clinicopathological features,and laboratory test results of the two groups were compared.Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors for VTE and to construct a nomogram model to predict VTE risk.The predictive ability of the model was evaluated using receiver op-erating characteristic(ROC)and calibration curves.Results:The incidence of post-operative VTE in patients with NSCLC was 16.9%.Patients in the VTE group were older(P=0.006),had a more advanced TNM stage(P<0.001),had more frequent vascular invasion(P=0.001),and had a longer duration of surgery(P=0.033)than patients in the non-VTE group.In addition,there were significant differences between patients in the VTE and non-VTE groups for pre-operative activated partial thromboplastin time(APTT)(P=0.003),D-dimer level(P<0.001),and serum carcinoembryonic antigen(CEA)level(P=0.029).Age,TNM stage,and pre-operative D-dimer level were independent risk factors for VTE in patients with NSCLC.Based on these four variables,a nomogram model was developed to predict the risk of post-operative VTE.The areas under the ROC curves for the modeling,internal validation,and external validation groups were 0.836,0.871,and 0.864,respectively.The calibration curve indicates a high degree of consistency between the predicted risks of the model and the actual risks that occur.Conclu-sions:The nomogram model based on age,TNM stage,operative time,and pre-operative D-dimer level can effectively identify individuals at risk of VTE,and it promises to be a valuable tool for risk assessment.
3.Construction and validation of a Nomogram model for postoperative early recurrence in patients with non-small cell lung cancer
Chunyu CHEN ; Jing ZHOU ; Guyue LIU ; Jie YU ; Jiangkui GU
Journal of Clinical Medicine in Practice 2023;27(24):7-13
Objective To explore the risk factors of postoperative early recurrence in patients with non-small cell lung cancer(NSCLC)and establish a new Nomogram model.Methods The clin-icopathological materials of 236 NSCLC patients with surgical resection in Fuyang Hospital Affiliated to Anhui Medical University and Fuyang City People's Hospital Affiliated to Anhui Medical University from January to August 2021 were retrospectively analyzed,and all the patients were randomly divided into a modeling group(n=165)and a validation group(n=71)with a ratio of 7 to 3.The independ-ent risk factors of postoperative recurrence for NSCLC patients were determined by the univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses,and a Nomogram model was constructed.The consistency index(C-index),calibration curve and receiver operating characteristics(ROC)curve were used to evalu-ate the predictive ability of the Nomogram model.Results The early recurrence rate of 236 NSCLC patients after surgery was 17.4%(41/236).Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses indicated that lymph node metastasis(HR=2.342,95%CI,1.214 to 4.517,P=0.011),pleural invasion(HR=2.738,95%CI,1.443 to 5.196,P=0.002),vascular invasion(HR=3.526,95%CI,1.802 to 6.899,P<0.001)and serum D-dimer level(HR=3.656,95%CI,1.265 to 10.561,P=0.017)were the independent predictors of early recurrence and metastasis for NSCLC patients.Based on the above four variables,a Nomogram model was constructed,and the result showed that the C-index of this model in the modeling group and validation group were 0.769(95%CI,0.661 to 0.879)and 0.790(95%CI,0.682 to 0.897)respectively;the area under the curve(AUC)of this model in predicting recurrence free survival(RFS)for patients in the modeling group at 1 year and 2 years was 0.817 and 0.792 respectively,while the AUC for patients in the validation group at 1 year and 2 years was 0.782 and 0.771 respectively.The calibration curve indicated that the predicted probability of this model was consistent with the actual recurrence risk in both groups.Conclusion This Nomo-gram model has good predictive value for early postoperative recurrence of NSCLC,and is of great sig-nificance for assisting clinical doctors in accurately identifying high-risk recurrence populations.
4.Construction and validation of a Nomogram model for postoperative early recurrence in patients with non-small cell lung cancer
Chunyu CHEN ; Jing ZHOU ; Guyue LIU ; Jie YU ; Jiangkui GU
Journal of Clinical Medicine in Practice 2023;27(24):7-13
Objective To explore the risk factors of postoperative early recurrence in patients with non-small cell lung cancer(NSCLC)and establish a new Nomogram model.Methods The clin-icopathological materials of 236 NSCLC patients with surgical resection in Fuyang Hospital Affiliated to Anhui Medical University and Fuyang City People's Hospital Affiliated to Anhui Medical University from January to August 2021 were retrospectively analyzed,and all the patients were randomly divided into a modeling group(n=165)and a validation group(n=71)with a ratio of 7 to 3.The independ-ent risk factors of postoperative recurrence for NSCLC patients were determined by the univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses,and a Nomogram model was constructed.The consistency index(C-index),calibration curve and receiver operating characteristics(ROC)curve were used to evalu-ate the predictive ability of the Nomogram model.Results The early recurrence rate of 236 NSCLC patients after surgery was 17.4%(41/236).Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses indicated that lymph node metastasis(HR=2.342,95%CI,1.214 to 4.517,P=0.011),pleural invasion(HR=2.738,95%CI,1.443 to 5.196,P=0.002),vascular invasion(HR=3.526,95%CI,1.802 to 6.899,P<0.001)and serum D-dimer level(HR=3.656,95%CI,1.265 to 10.561,P=0.017)were the independent predictors of early recurrence and metastasis for NSCLC patients.Based on the above four variables,a Nomogram model was constructed,and the result showed that the C-index of this model in the modeling group and validation group were 0.769(95%CI,0.661 to 0.879)and 0.790(95%CI,0.682 to 0.897)respectively;the area under the curve(AUC)of this model in predicting recurrence free survival(RFS)for patients in the modeling group at 1 year and 2 years was 0.817 and 0.792 respectively,while the AUC for patients in the validation group at 1 year and 2 years was 0.782 and 0.771 respectively.The calibration curve indicated that the predicted probability of this model was consistent with the actual recurrence risk in both groups.Conclusion This Nomo-gram model has good predictive value for early postoperative recurrence of NSCLC,and is of great sig-nificance for assisting clinical doctors in accurately identifying high-risk recurrence populations.

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