BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) as the causative agent of COVID-19 has significantly challenged the public health landscape in late 2019. After almost 3 years of the first ever SARS-CoV-2 case, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of this global health emergency in May 2023. Although, despite the subsequent drop of COVID-19 cases, the SARS-CoV-2 infection still exhibited multiple waves of infection, primarily attributed to the appearance of new variants. Five of these variants have been classified as Variants of Concern (VOC): Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, and the most recent, Omicron. Therefore, the development of methods for the timely and accurate detection of viral variants remains fundamental, ensuring an ongoing and effective response to the disease. This study aims to evaluate the feasibility of the application of an in-house approach in genomic surveillance for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 variants using in silico designed primers.

METHODS

The primers used for the study were particularly designed based on conserved regions of certain genes in the virus, targeting distinct mutations found in known variants of SARS-CoV-2. Viral RNA extracts from nasopharyngeal samples (n=14) were subjected to quantitative and qualitative tests (Nanodrop and AGE). Selected samples were then analyzed by RT-PCR and amplicons were submitted for sequencing. Sequence alignment analysis was carried out to identify the prevailing COVID-19 variant present in the sample population.

RESULTS

The study findings demonstrated that the in-house method was able to successfully amplify conserved sequences (spike, envelope, membrane, ORF1ab) and enabled identification of the circulating SARS-CoV-2 variant among the samples. Majority of the samples were identified as Omicron variant. Three out of four designed primers effectively bound into the conserved sequence of target genes present in the sample, revealing the specific SARSCoV-2 variant. The detected mutations characterized for Omicron found in the identified lineages included K417N, S477N, and P681H which were also identified as mutations of interest. Furthermore, identification of the B.1.448 lineage which was not classified in any known variant also provided the potential of the developed in-house method in detecting unknown variants of COVID-19.

CONCLUSION

Among the five VOCs, Omicron is the most prevalent and dominant variant. The in-house direct PCR product sequencing surveillance (DPPSS) method provided an alternative platform for SAR-CoV-2 variant analysis which is accessible and affordable than the conventional diagnostic surveillance methods and the whole genome sequencing. Further evaluation and improvements on the oligonucleotide primers may offer significant contribution to the development of a specific and direct PCRbased detection of new emerging COVID-19 variants.

Sars-cov-2 ; Polymerase Chain Reaction ; Dna Primers ; Oligonucleotide Primers ; Computer Simulation ; Conserved Sequence ; Coronavirus ; Covid-19 ; Disease ; Emergencies ; Evaluation Studies As Topic ; Genes ; Genome ; Global Health ; Health ; Identification (psychology) ; Infection ; Infections ; Membranes ; Methods ; Mutation ; Oligonucleotides ; Organizations ; Population ; Public Health ; Rna ; Rna, Viral ; Sars Virus ; Sequence Alignment ; Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ; Syndrome ; Viruses ; Whole Genome Sequencing ; World Health Organization

BACKGROUND: Spatiotemporal disparities exist in the disease burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) attributable to kidney dysfunction, which has been poorly assessed. The present study aimed to evaluate the spatiotemporal trends of the global burden of NCDs attributable to kidney dysfunction and to predict future trends. METHODS: Data on NCDs attributable to kidney dysfunction, quantified using deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study in 2019. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of age-standardized rate (ASR) was calculated with linear regression to assess the changing trend. Pearson's correlation analysis was used to determine the association between ASR and sociodemographic index (SDI) for 21 GBD regions. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict future trends up to 2040. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2019, the absolute number of deaths and DALYs from NCDs attributable to kidney dysfunction increased globally. The death cases increased from 1,571,720 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1,344,420-1,805,598) in 1990 to 3,161,552 (95% UI: 2,723,363-3,623,814) in 2019 for both sexes combined. Both the ASR of death and DALYs increased in Andean Latin America, the Caribbean, Central Latin America, Southeast Asia, Oceania, and Southern Sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast, the age-standardized metrics decreased in the high-income Asia Pacific region. The relationship between SDI and ASR of death and DALYs was negatively correlated. The BAPC model indicated that there would be approximately 5,806,780 death cases and 119,013,659 DALY cases in 2040 that could be attributed to kidney dysfunction. Age-standardized death of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and CKD attributable to kidney dysfunction were predicted to decrease and increase from 2020 to 2040, respectively. CONCLUSION NCDs attributable to kidney dysfunction remain a major public health concern worldwide. Efforts are required to attenuate the death and disability burden, particularly in low and low-to-middle SDI regions.
Humans ; Noncommunicable Diseases/epidemiology* ; Global Burden of Disease ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Male ; Female ; Risk Factors ; Middle Aged ; Kidney Diseases/epidemiology* ; Bayes Theorem ; Adult ; Aged ; Global Health ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years

BACKGROUND: Skin cancer is a common skin disease whose incidence and mortality rates have been showing yearly increases. In this report, we update the most recent data on skin cancer as obtained from GLOBOCAN 2022. METHODS: The incidence and mortality rates of skin cancer (melanoma of skin and non-melanoma skin cancer) in GLOBOCAN 2022 were reviewed. These data were analyzed and the characteristics of incidence and mortality across five continents and top five countries and regions in each continent are presented. In addition, correlations between Human Development Index (HDI) and age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of these two skin cancers are described. RESULTS: The GLOBOCAN 2022 data indicated that melanoma was the 17th most common cancer. An estimated 331,722 people were diagnosed with melanoma globally and approximately 58,667 died from this disease. For non-melanoma skin cancer, it ranks as the 5th most common cancer, and an estimated 1,234,533 people were diagnosed with non-melanoma skin cancer globally and approximately 69,416 died from this disease. The incidence of skin cancer varies across geographic regions and countries, with a predominance observed in Oceania, North America, and Europe. Australia was ranked first in terms of incidence, while incidence rates in Africa and Asia were very low. Despite these regional differences in incidence, there was little geographic variation in mortality rates. Currently, the number of deaths from non-melanoma skin cancer exceeds that of melanoma of skin. HDI was positively associated with the incidence of both types of skin cancers, with a positive correlation obtained between HDI and mortality from melanoma of skin and a negative correlation between HDI and mortality from non-melanoma skin cancer. CONCLUSIONS Skin cancer remains a major disease burden worldwide. Substantial variations are observed across countries and regions. Further research on skin cancer will be required to provide a rationale for more effective preventions and treatments of this condition.
Humans ; Skin Neoplasms/mortality* ; Incidence ; Melanoma/mortality* ; Prevalence ; Global Health ; Male ; Female

BACKGROUND: Metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is a common liver disease and may become the leading cause of severe liver disease in the future. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study assesses MAFLD's impact in countries and regions worldwide, providing insights into its prevalence. METHODS: Prevalence data for MAFLD from 1990 to 2021 by country and region in all sex and age groups were collected from the Global Health Data Exchange. The categorization of countries and geographic areas by development was performed using the Sociodemographic Index (SDI). RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2021, the global crude prevalence rate of MAFLD increased from 10.6% to 16.1% (beta-coefficient: 0.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.2-0.2%, P  <0.001), and the age-standardized prevalence rate was increased from 12.1% to 15.0% (beta-coefficient: 0.1%, 95% CI: 0.1-0.1%, P  <0.001). In 2021, MAFLD was estimated to have affected 1.3 billion people worldwide. Significant uptrends were observed in all regions, super regions, and SDI categories. The fastest increase from 1990 to 2021 and the highest prevalence rate in 2021 were experienced by countries and territories with high-middle and middle SDI. An increase in the prevalence of MAFLD from 1990 to 2021 was demonstrated in all but six countries. CONCLUSIONS In 2021, the number of patients affected by MAFLD was doubled compared to 1990, and the prevalence rate increased by over 50%. The burden of MAFLD, as measured by prevalence, was more prominent in countries and territories with middle SDI and in those located in North African and Middle Eastern, possibly due to changes in lifestyle in these areas over the past 30 years.
Humans ; Global Burden of Disease ; Prevalence ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; Global Health ; Fatty Liver/epidemiology* ; Aged

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the disease burden of pelvic fractures at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2023 using data from the 2023 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), and to predict the disease burden through 2050. METHODS: Leveraging data from the GBD 2023, this study investigated the disease burden of pelvic fractures across 204 countries and regions. Assessment indicators included incidence rate, prevalence rate, and years lived with disability (YLDs). The Joinpoint regression model was employed to analyze trends in pelvic fracture burden from 1990 to 2023, while the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was used to quantify this temporal trend. The relationship between the socio-demographic index and pelvic fracture burden was evaluated. Furthermore, the long short-term memory (LSTM) model was applied to predict trends in pelvic fracture burden through 2050. RESULTS: In 2023, the estimated number of new pelvic fracture cases globally was 7 479 884 [95% uncertainty interval ( UI): 5 293 401-10 611 876], representing a 42.74% increase from 1990. In the same year, the number of prevalent pelvic fracture cases and YLDs were 23 007 508 (95% UI: 21 021 518-25 327 165) and 3 909 228 person-years (95% UI: 2 725 498-5 194 385), respectively. Additionally, age-standardized rates exhibited an opposing downward trend. Significant disparities in the disease burden of pelvic fractures were identified across different age groups, genders, and social contexts. According to predictions from the LSTM model, the global age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of pelvic fractures will be approximately 88.44 per 100 000 persons by 2050, while the total number of incident cases will rise to 8 547 095. CONCLUSION Although the overall incidence rate, prevalence rate, and YLDs of pelvic fractures have exhibited an upward trend over the past three decades, the ASIR, age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and age-standardized years of life lost rate (ASYR) have shown a downward trend. It is predicted that over the upcoming 26-year period, the age-standardized rate of disease burden due to pelvic fractures will further decrease, while the number of incident cases and prevalent cases will continue to exhibit an upward trend. Formulating more targeted disease prevention strategies is critical to addressing disparities across genders, regions, and other dimensions, and to mitigating the burden of pelvic fractures.
Humans ; Fractures, Bone/epidemiology* ; Pelvic Bones/injuries* ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; Incidence ; Prevalence ; Aged ; Global Burden of Disease/trends* ; Global Health ; Adolescent ; Cost of Illness ; Young Adult ; Forecasting ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Memory, Short-Term

BACKGROUND: High temperatures are known to be associated with an increased risk of self-harm, but the influence of demographic changes and country-level indicators on the burden of heat-related self-harm remains unclear. This study examined the key factors driving changes in self-harm mortality linked to high temperatures and explored their impact at the country level. METHODS: This is an ecological study that analyzes data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, the World Bank, and the Climate Research Unit (CRU) were analyzed. Decomposition analyses were used to identify key factors driving changes in high temperature-related self-harm mortality between 1990 and 2021. A panel data model assessed the impact of national indicators on heat-related self-harm mortality. RESULTS: In 2021, 14,885 deaths globally were attributed to heat-related self-harm, a 41.94% increase from 1990, with low-middle SDI regions accounting for 47.84% of these deaths. While the global death rate from heat-related self-harm declined slightly over this period, South Asia and low-middle SDI regions contributed most to the decline. However, population aging exacerbated mortality rates. Demographic and meteorological factors were also linked to heat-related self-harm. CONCLUSION The global decline in heat-related self-harm mortality is largely driven by reductions in females, low-middle SDI regions, and South Asia. However, population aging and growth in these regions have added to the mortality burden, slowing the overall decline. Factors such as population density are also associated with heat-related self-harm. Targeted measures are needed to mitigate heat-induced self-harm more effectively in future.
Humans ; Self-Injurious Behavior/etiology* ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects* ; Global Health/statistics & numerical data* ; Female ; Male ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Young Adult ; Adolescent

BACKGROUND: Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) and malaria pose a major health challenge, especially in low- and middle-income countries. METHODS: Initially, we performed a descriptive analysis of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, categorizing data by subtypes. Next, linear regression models were employed to analyze temporal trends. We then utilized four predictive models to forecast the future burden. Additionally, we explored the relationship between estimated annual percentage change (EAPCs) and age-standardized rates (ASRs), as well as Human Development Index (HDI) scores for 2021. Furthermore, decomposition analysis was applied to assess the influence of aging, population dynamics, and epidemiological changes. Lastly, frontier analysis was conducted to examine the connection between disease burden and sociodemographic development. RESULTS: In 2021, NTDs and malaria contributed significantly to the global disease burden, with considerable disparities across genders, age groups, Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions, GBD regions, and individual countries. From 1990 to 2021, both the number of cases and the associated ASRs have shown a recent downward trend. The EAPCs are positively correlated with ASRs and HDI scores. Projections indicate a continued decline in disease burden through 2046. Additionally, our decomposition analysis highlighted the positive impact of aging and epidemiological shifts on the reduction of the disease burden. Finally, frontier analysis revealed that countries and regions with higher SDI scores have greater potential for further reducing their health burden. CONCLUSION While the global burden of NTDs and malaria has improved overall, significant disparities remain across regions and countries. Our findings highlight the importance of implementing targeted intervention strategies and maintaining sustained investments to tackle the ongoing challenges.
Malaria/epidemiology* ; Humans ; Neglected Diseases/epidemiology* ; Global Burden of Disease/trends* ; Global Health/statistics & numerical data* ; Male ; Female ; Tropical Medicine ; Adult ; Cost of Illness ; Child, Preschool ; Middle Aged ; Adolescent ; Young Adult ; Infant

OBJECTIVES: To conduct a comprehensive analysis of the global burden of diarrheal diseases in children under 5 years. METHODS: The data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 were analyzed to assess the incidence, mortality rates and average annual percentage changes (AAPC) of diarrhea among children under 5 years across nations(regions) and GBD regions from 1990 to 2021 using joinpoint regression. Smoothed curve regression was employed to explore the correlation of diarrheal disease burden with the Social Development Index (SDI) and for analyzing the burden of specific diarrheal pathogens. The Slope and Concentration Indices quantified disparities across SDI levels and the future trend were projected by the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, the global incidence (AAPC: -3.65) and mortality (AAPC: -5.15) rates of diarrheal diseases declined steadily in children below 5 years. In 2021, neonates (<28 days) were the most affected, with an incidence rate of 138 058.74 per 100 000 and a mortality rate of 251.14 per 100 000. Rotavirus was the leading cause of death. The incidence rate of diarrheal diseases was negatively correlated with SDI, and the Concentration Index decreased from -0.293 in 1990 to -0.314 in 2021 without a significant gender difference. The BAPC model suggested that the global incidence rate of diarrheal diseases tends to decrease progressively from 2022 to 2050, with a predicted rate of 23 448.04 per 100 000 for male and 29 932.59 per 100 000 for female by 2050. CONCLUSIONS Despite the reduction in the global burden of diarrhea and the projection of its further decline, diarrheal diseases disproportionately affect neonates and low-SDI regions. While rotavirus remains the primary etiological agent worldwide, the predominant pathogens vary by nations (regions) and GBD regions, and strengthened interventions targeting vulnerable populations are needed.
Humans ; Child, Preschool ; Diarrhea/mortality* ; Infant ; Incidence ; Infant, Newborn ; Global Burden of Disease/trends* ; Global Health ; Male ; Bayes Theorem ; Female

Congenital musculoskeletal and limb deformities (CMLD) seriously affect the physical and mental health of patients, and pose great challenges to healthcare systems worldwide. We explored the specific situation and changes of incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years rates, and mortality of CMLD in under-5 children from 1990 to 2021 in different groups, including different regions, periods, genders and socio-demographic indices (SDI), through corresponding analytical models. Overall, the global disease burden of CMLD in under-5 children has decreased from 1990 to 2021. The disease burden of CMLD in under-5 children varied significantly among different regions and countries, and there was a strong correlation between the corresponding burden of disease and the level of SDI. In addition, cross-country inequality analysis showed that while absolute inequalities in the disease burden of CMLD in under-5 children have improved, relative inequalities have worsened. It is essential to reduce the global health impact of CMLD by implementing targeted interventions to improve health care in underdeveloped areas.
Humans ; Global Burden of Disease/trends* ; Child, Preschool ; Global Health/statistics & numerical data* ; Infant ; Male ; Prevalence ; Limb Deformities, Congenital/mortality* ; Musculoskeletal Abnormalities/mortality* ; Female ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Incidence ; Infant, Newborn ; Cost of Illness ; Socioeconomic Factors

OBJECTIVE: To describe survival trends and global patterns of esophageal cancer (EC) using survival data from population-based cancer registries. METHODS: We systematically searched PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, SEER, and SinoMed databases for articles published up to 31 December 2023. Eligible EC survival estimates were evaluated according to country or region, period, sex, age group, pathology, and disease stage. RESULTS: After 2010, Jordan exhibited the highest age-standardized 5-year relative survival rates (RSRs)/net survival rates (NSRs) at 41.1% between 2010 and 2014, while India had the lowest, at 4.1%. Survival rates generally improved with diagnostic age across most countries, with significant increases in South Korea and China, of 12.7% and 10.5% between 2000 and 2017, respectively. Survival was higher among women compared to men, ranging from 0.4%-10.9%. Survival rates for adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma were similar, differing by about 4%. In China, the highest age-standardized RSRs/NSRs was 33.4% between 2015 and 2017. Meanwhile, the lowest was 5.3%, in Qidong (Jiangsu province) between 1992-1996. CONCLUSION Global EC survival rates have improved significantly in recent decades, but substantial geographical, sex, and age disparities still exist. In Asia, squamous cell carcinoma demonstrated superior survival rates compared to adenocarcinoma, while the opposite trend was observed in Western countries. Future research should clarify the prognostic factors influencing EC survival and tailor prevention and screening strategies to the changing EC survival patterns.
Humans ; Esophageal Neoplasms/mortality* ; Registries ; Male ; Female ; Survival Analysis ; Middle Aged ; Survival Rate ; Aged ; Global Health