BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) as the causative agent of COVID-19 has significantly challenged the public health landscape in late 2019. After almost 3 years of the first ever SARS-CoV-2 case, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of this global health emergency in May 2023. Although, despite the subsequent drop of COVID-19 cases, the SARS-CoV-2 infection still exhibited multiple waves of infection, primarily attributed to the appearance of new variants. Five of these variants have been classified as Variants of Concern (VOC): Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, and the most recent, Omicron. Therefore, the development of methods for the timely and accurate detection of viral variants remains fundamental, ensuring an ongoing and effective response to the disease. This study aims to evaluate the feasibility of the application of an in-house approach in genomic surveillance for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 variants using in silico designed primers.

METHODS

The primers used for the study were particularly designed based on conserved regions of certain genes in the virus, targeting distinct mutations found in known variants of SARS-CoV-2. Viral RNA extracts from nasopharyngeal samples (n=14) were subjected to quantitative and qualitative tests (Nanodrop and AGE). Selected samples were then analyzed by RT-PCR and amplicons were submitted for sequencing. Sequence alignment analysis was carried out to identify the prevailing COVID-19 variant present in the sample population.

RESULTS

The study findings demonstrated that the in-house method was able to successfully amplify conserved sequences (spike, envelope, membrane, ORF1ab) and enabled identification of the circulating SARS-CoV-2 variant among the samples. Majority of the samples were identified as Omicron variant. Three out of four designed primers effectively bound into the conserved sequence of target genes present in the sample, revealing the specific SARSCoV-2 variant. The detected mutations characterized for Omicron found in the identified lineages included K417N, S477N, and P681H which were also identified as mutations of interest. Furthermore, identification of the B.1.448 lineage which was not classified in any known variant also provided the potential of the developed in-house method in detecting unknown variants of COVID-19.

CONCLUSION

Among the five VOCs, Omicron is the most prevalent and dominant variant. The in-house direct PCR product sequencing surveillance (DPPSS) method provided an alternative platform for SAR-CoV-2 variant analysis which is accessible and affordable than the conventional diagnostic surveillance methods and the whole genome sequencing. Further evaluation and improvements on the oligonucleotide primers may offer significant contribution to the development of a specific and direct PCRbased detection of new emerging COVID-19 variants.

Sars-cov-2 ; Polymerase Chain Reaction ; Dna Primers ; Oligonucleotide Primers ; Computer Simulation ; Conserved Sequence ; Coronavirus ; Covid-19 ; Disease ; Emergencies ; Evaluation Studies As Topic ; Genes ; Genome ; Global Health ; Health ; Identification (psychology) ; Infection ; Infections ; Membranes ; Methods ; Mutation ; Oligonucleotides ; Organizations ; Population ; Public Health ; Rna ; Rna, Viral ; Sars Virus ; Sequence Alignment ; Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ; Syndrome ; Viruses ; Whole Genome Sequencing ; World Health Organization

Congenital musculoskeletal and limb deformities (CMLD) seriously affect the physical and mental health of patients, and pose great challenges to healthcare systems worldwide. We explored the specific situation and changes of incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years rates, and mortality of CMLD in under-5 children from 1990 to 2021 in different groups, including different regions, periods, genders and socio-demographic indices (SDI), through corresponding analytical models. Overall, the global disease burden of CMLD in under-5 children has decreased from 1990 to 2021. The disease burden of CMLD in under-5 children varied significantly among different regions and countries, and there was a strong correlation between the corresponding burden of disease and the level of SDI. In addition, cross-country inequality analysis showed that while absolute inequalities in the disease burden of CMLD in under-5 children have improved, relative inequalities have worsened. It is essential to reduce the global health impact of CMLD by implementing targeted interventions to improve health care in underdeveloped areas.
Humans ; Global Burden of Disease/trends* ; Child, Preschool ; Global Health/statistics & numerical data* ; Infant ; Male ; Prevalence ; Limb Deformities, Congenital/mortality* ; Musculoskeletal Abnormalities/mortality* ; Female ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Incidence ; Infant, Newborn ; Cost of Illness ; Socioeconomic Factors

OBJECTIVE: To describe survival trends and global patterns of esophageal cancer (EC) using survival data from population-based cancer registries. METHODS: We systematically searched PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, SEER, and SinoMed databases for articles published up to 31 December 2023. Eligible EC survival estimates were evaluated according to country or region, period, sex, age group, pathology, and disease stage. RESULTS: After 2010, Jordan exhibited the highest age-standardized 5-year relative survival rates (RSRs)/net survival rates (NSRs) at 41.1% between 2010 and 2014, while India had the lowest, at 4.1%. Survival rates generally improved with diagnostic age across most countries, with significant increases in South Korea and China, of 12.7% and 10.5% between 2000 and 2017, respectively. Survival was higher among women compared to men, ranging from 0.4%-10.9%. Survival rates for adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma were similar, differing by about 4%. In China, the highest age-standardized RSRs/NSRs was 33.4% between 2015 and 2017. Meanwhile, the lowest was 5.3%, in Qidong (Jiangsu province) between 1992-1996. CONCLUSION Global EC survival rates have improved significantly in recent decades, but substantial geographical, sex, and age disparities still exist. In Asia, squamous cell carcinoma demonstrated superior survival rates compared to adenocarcinoma, while the opposite trend was observed in Western countries. Future research should clarify the prognostic factors influencing EC survival and tailor prevention and screening strategies to the changing EC survival patterns.
Humans ; Esophageal Neoplasms/mortality* ; Registries ; Male ; Female ; Survival Analysis ; Middle Aged ; Survival Rate ; Aged ; Global Health

Climate and weather significantly influence the duration, timing, and intensity of disease outbreaks, reshaping the global landscape of infectious diseases. Rising temperatures and shifts in precipitation patterns driven by climate change can directly impact the survival and reproduction of pathogens and vector organisms. Moreover, climate change is expected to exacerbate extreme weather events, including floods and droughts, which can disrupt infrastructure and increase the risk of water- and foodborne diseases. There are potential shifts in the temporal and spatial patterns of infectious disease transmission owing to climate change. Furthermore, climate change may alter the epidemiology of vaccine-preventable diseases. These climatic variations not only affect the ecological characteristics of pathogens and vectors but also indirectly influence human behaviors and socioeconomic conditions, further amplifying disease transmission risks. Addressing this challenge requires an interdisciplinary collaboration and comprehensive public health strategies. This review aims to synthesize the current evidence on the impact of climate change on climate-sensitive infectious diseases and elucidate the underlying mechanisms and transmission pathways. Additionally, we explored adaptive policy strategies to mitigate the public health burden of infectious diseases in the context of climate change, offering insights for global health governance and disease control efforts.
Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/transmission* ; Humans ; Animals ; Global Health

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the disease burden of pelvic fractures at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2023 using data from the 2023 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), and to predict the disease burden through 2050. METHODS: Leveraging data from the GBD 2023, this study investigated the disease burden of pelvic fractures across 204 countries and regions. Assessment indicators included incidence rate, prevalence rate, and years lived with disability (YLDs). The Joinpoint regression model was employed to analyze trends in pelvic fracture burden from 1990 to 2023, while the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was used to quantify this temporal trend. The relationship between the socio-demographic index and pelvic fracture burden was evaluated. Furthermore, the long short-term memory (LSTM) model was applied to predict trends in pelvic fracture burden through 2050. RESULTS: In 2023, the estimated number of new pelvic fracture cases globally was 7 479 884 [95% uncertainty interval ( UI): 5 293 401-10 611 876], representing a 42.74% increase from 1990. In the same year, the number of prevalent pelvic fracture cases and YLDs were 23 007 508 (95% UI: 21 021 518-25 327 165) and 3 909 228 person-years (95% UI: 2 725 498-5 194 385), respectively. Additionally, age-standardized rates exhibited an opposing downward trend. Significant disparities in the disease burden of pelvic fractures were identified across different age groups, genders, and social contexts. According to predictions from the LSTM model, the global age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of pelvic fractures will be approximately 88.44 per 100 000 persons by 2050, while the total number of incident cases will rise to 8 547 095. CONCLUSION Although the overall incidence rate, prevalence rate, and YLDs of pelvic fractures have exhibited an upward trend over the past three decades, the ASIR, age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and age-standardized years of life lost rate (ASYR) have shown a downward trend. It is predicted that over the upcoming 26-year period, the age-standardized rate of disease burden due to pelvic fractures will further decrease, while the number of incident cases and prevalent cases will continue to exhibit an upward trend. Formulating more targeted disease prevention strategies is critical to addressing disparities across genders, regions, and other dimensions, and to mitigating the burden of pelvic fractures.
Humans ; Fractures, Bone/epidemiology* ; Pelvic Bones/injuries* ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; Incidence ; Prevalence ; Aged ; Global Burden of Disease/trends* ; Global Health ; Adolescent ; Cost of Illness ; Young Adult ; Forecasting ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Memory, Short-Term

PURPOSE: To comprehensively analyze the geographic and temporal trends of foot fracture, understand its health burden by age, sex, and sociodemographic index (SDI), and explore its leading causes from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: The datasets in the present study were generated from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019, which included foot fracture data from 1990 to 2019. We extracted estimates along with the 95% uncertainty interval (UI) for the incidence and years lived with disability (YLDs) of foot fracture by location, age, gender, and cause. The epidemiology and burden of foot fracture at the global, regional, and national level was exhibited. Next, we presented the age and sex patterns of foot fracture. The leading cause of foot fracture was another focus of this study from the viewpoint of age, sex, and location. Then, Pearson's correlations between age-standardized rate (ASR), SDI, and estimated annual percentage change were calculated. RESULTS: The age-standardized incidence rate was 138.68 (95% UI: 104.88 - 182.53) per 100,000 persons for both sexes, 174.24 (95% UI: 134.35 - 222.49) per 100,000 persons for males, and 102.19 (95% UI: 73.28 - 138.00) per 100,000 persons for females in 2019. The age-standardized YLDs rate was 5.91 (95% UI: 3.58 - 9.25) per 100,000 persons for both genders, 7.35 (95% UI: 4.45 - 11.50) per 100,000 persons for males, and 4.51 (95% UI: 2.75 - 7.03) per 100,000 persons for females in 2019. The global incidence and YLDs of foot fracture increased in number and decreased in ASR from 1990 to 2019. The global geographical distribution of foot fracture is uneven. The incidence rate for males peaked at the age group of 20 - 24 years, while that for females increased with advancing age. The incidence rate of older people was rising, as younger age incidence rate declined from 1990 to 2019. Falls, exposure to mechanical forces, and road traffic injuries were the 3 leading causes of foot fracture. Correlations were observed between ASR, estimated annual percentage change, and SDI. CONCLUSIONS The burden of foot fracture remains high globally, and it poses an enormous public health challenge, with population aging. It is necessary to allocate more resources to the high-risk populations. Targeted realistic intervention policies and strategies are warranted.
Humans ; Male ; Female ; Incidence ; Fractures, Bone/epidemiology* ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; Global Health ; Aged ; Global Burden of Disease ; Adolescent ; Child ; Young Adult ; Foot Injuries/epidemiology* ; Cost of Illness ; Child, Preschool ; Aged, 80 and over ; Infant

OBJECTIVES: To analyze sex and age distribution of global disease burden of calcific aortic valve disease (CAVD) from 1990 to 2021. METHODS: CAVD data during 1990-2021 were obtained from the IHME website for Global Burden of Disease (GBD). The prevalence, mortality, years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were analyzed by gender and age groups. Joinpoint regression was used to calculate annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC). RESULTS: In 2021, there were 13.32 million CAVD patients and 142 000 deaths caused by CAVD globally. Age-standardized prevalence was higher in males (193.2/10⁵) than that in females (128.9/10⁵). Patients in 65-<85 age group accounted for 64.0% of total cases, while those ≥85 years old accounted for 16.1%. From 1990 to 2021, prevalence increased in both sexes with an AAPC of 0.72% for males and 0.57% for females, respectively. Prevalence grew fastest from 2000 to 2010, slowed thereafter, and declined from 2015 to 2021. In <65 years old, the mortality of males was 2.4 times higher than that of females, while in ≥85 years old, mortality of females (117.3/10⁵) exceeded that of males (99.1/10⁵). YLD rates increased with age, and were higher in males for all age groups. DALY rates decreased overall but increased in ≥85 years old, with a greater increase in females. CONCLUSIONS There are significant gender and age disparities in global disease burden of CAVD, with the elderly, especially super-elderly females deserving particular attention. It is recommended to develop personalized intervention strategies for these populations.
Humans ; Male ; Female ; Aged ; Calcinosis/mortality* ; Prevalence ; Global Burden of Disease ; Aged, 80 and over ; Middle Aged ; Aortic Valve/pathology* ; Aortic Valve Stenosis/epidemiology* ; Age Distribution ; Adult ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Sex Distribution ; Global Health ; Aortic Valve Disease/epidemiology* ; Sex Factors

OBJECTIVES: To analyze the global disease burden of cervical cancer and the association between screening coverage and the quality of disease management. METHODS: The data of global burden of cervical cancer 2021 and the data of cervical cancer screening 2019 were obtained from IHME Global Burden of Disease (GBD) and the WHO global health observatory, respectively. The age-standardized disease burden index was calculated, the quality of care index (QCI) was determined with principal component analysis, and the correlation between QCI and cervical cancer screening coverage was examined with linear regression analysis by regions and populations. RESULTS: The burden of cervical cancer and the quality of management exhibited significant variability across countries with differing levels of social development. The indicators of cervical cancer burden in China were close to the average level of countries with higher socio-demographic index (SDI). The global QCI was 22.22 (10.50, 35.43), and that of China was 26.30. The global screening coverage rate for cervical cancer was 42% (12%, 86%) and that in China was 31%. After adjusting for the social development level of countries, the coverage level of cervical cancer screening was associated with QCI (β=0.27, P<0.01), with no difference between low and high SDI countries (P>0.05). The association was significantly stronger among 25-30 years old women (β=1.48, P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS There are discrepancies in both the disease burden of cervical cancer and the quality of disease management among countries with different socioeconomic levels, and there is still considerable room for improvement in China. Expanding coverage of cervical cancer screening may be an effective strategy to enhance the management quality of cervical cancer, particularly among younger women where the screening benefits are most pronounced.
Humans ; Uterine Cervical Neoplasms/prevention & control* ; Female ; Early Detection of Cancer ; Global Burden of Disease ; China/epidemiology* ; Mass Screening ; Quality of Health Care ; Disease Management ; Adult ; Middle Aged

BACKGROUND: High temperatures are known to be associated with an increased risk of self-harm, but the influence of demographic changes and country-level indicators on the burden of heat-related self-harm remains unclear. This study examined the key factors driving changes in self-harm mortality linked to high temperatures and explored their impact at the country level. METHODS: This is an ecological study that analyzes data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, the World Bank, and the Climate Research Unit (CRU) were analyzed. Decomposition analyses were used to identify key factors driving changes in high temperature-related self-harm mortality between 1990 and 2021. A panel data model assessed the impact of national indicators on heat-related self-harm mortality. RESULTS: In 2021, 14,885 deaths globally were attributed to heat-related self-harm, a 41.94% increase from 1990, with low-middle SDI regions accounting for 47.84% of these deaths. While the global death rate from heat-related self-harm declined slightly over this period, South Asia and low-middle SDI regions contributed most to the decline. However, population aging exacerbated mortality rates. Demographic and meteorological factors were also linked to heat-related self-harm. CONCLUSION The global decline in heat-related self-harm mortality is largely driven by reductions in females, low-middle SDI regions, and South Asia. However, population aging and growth in these regions have added to the mortality burden, slowing the overall decline. Factors such as population density are also associated with heat-related self-harm. Targeted measures are needed to mitigate heat-induced self-harm more effectively in future.
Humans ; Self-Injurious Behavior/etiology* ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects* ; Global Health/statistics & numerical data* ; Female ; Male ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Young Adult ; Adolescent

BACKGROUND: Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) and malaria pose a major health challenge, especially in low- and middle-income countries. METHODS: Initially, we performed a descriptive analysis of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, categorizing data by subtypes. Next, linear regression models were employed to analyze temporal trends. We then utilized four predictive models to forecast the future burden. Additionally, we explored the relationship between estimated annual percentage change (EAPCs) and age-standardized rates (ASRs), as well as Human Development Index (HDI) scores for 2021. Furthermore, decomposition analysis was applied to assess the influence of aging, population dynamics, and epidemiological changes. Lastly, frontier analysis was conducted to examine the connection between disease burden and sociodemographic development. RESULTS: In 2021, NTDs and malaria contributed significantly to the global disease burden, with considerable disparities across genders, age groups, Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions, GBD regions, and individual countries. From 1990 to 2021, both the number of cases and the associated ASRs have shown a recent downward trend. The EAPCs are positively correlated with ASRs and HDI scores. Projections indicate a continued decline in disease burden through 2046. Additionally, our decomposition analysis highlighted the positive impact of aging and epidemiological shifts on the reduction of the disease burden. Finally, frontier analysis revealed that countries and regions with higher SDI scores have greater potential for further reducing their health burden. CONCLUSION While the global burden of NTDs and malaria has improved overall, significant disparities remain across regions and countries. Our findings highlight the importance of implementing targeted intervention strategies and maintaining sustained investments to tackle the ongoing challenges.
Malaria/epidemiology* ; Humans ; Neglected Diseases/epidemiology* ; Global Burden of Disease/trends* ; Global Health/statistics & numerical data* ; Male ; Female ; Tropical Medicine ; Adult ; Cost of Illness ; Child, Preschool ; Middle Aged ; Adolescent ; Young Adult ; Infant