PURPOSE: To comprehensively analyze the geographic and temporal trends of foot fracture, understand its health burden by age, sex, and sociodemographic index (SDI), and explore its leading causes from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: The datasets in the present study were generated from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019, which included foot fracture data from 1990 to 2019. We extracted estimates along with the 95% uncertainty interval (UI) for the incidence and years lived with disability (YLDs) of foot fracture by location, age, gender, and cause. The epidemiology and burden of foot fracture at the global, regional, and national level was exhibited. Next, we presented the age and sex patterns of foot fracture. The leading cause of foot fracture was another focus of this study from the viewpoint of age, sex, and location. Then, Pearson's correlations between age-standardized rate (ASR), SDI, and estimated annual percentage change were calculated. RESULTS: The age-standardized incidence rate was 138.68 (95% UI: 104.88 - 182.53) per 100,000 persons for both sexes, 174.24 (95% UI: 134.35 - 222.49) per 100,000 persons for males, and 102.19 (95% UI: 73.28 - 138.00) per 100,000 persons for females in 2019. The age-standardized YLDs rate was 5.91 (95% UI: 3.58 - 9.25) per 100,000 persons for both genders, 7.35 (95% UI: 4.45 - 11.50) per 100,000 persons for males, and 4.51 (95% UI: 2.75 - 7.03) per 100,000 persons for females in 2019. The global incidence and YLDs of foot fracture increased in number and decreased in ASR from 1990 to 2019. The global geographical distribution of foot fracture is uneven. The incidence rate for males peaked at the age group of 20 - 24 years, while that for females increased with advancing age. The incidence rate of older people was rising, as younger age incidence rate declined from 1990 to 2019. Falls, exposure to mechanical forces, and road traffic injuries were the 3 leading causes of foot fracture. Correlations were observed between ASR, estimated annual percentage change, and SDI. CONCLUSIONS The burden of foot fracture remains high globally, and it poses an enormous public health challenge, with population aging. It is necessary to allocate more resources to the high-risk populations. Targeted realistic intervention policies and strategies are warranted.
Humans ; Male ; Female ; Incidence ; Fractures, Bone/epidemiology* ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; Global Health ; Aged ; Global Burden of Disease ; Adolescent ; Child ; Young Adult ; Foot Injuries/epidemiology* ; Cost of Illness ; Child, Preschool ; Aged, 80 and over ; Infant

OBJECTIVES: To analyze the disease burden and inequalities of lower extremity peripheral artery disease (LEPAD) among people aged 40 and above in the Belt and Road partner countries from 1990 to 2021. METHODS: Data were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database. The age-standardized prevalence rates, mortality rates, and the annual rate of years lived with disability (YLDs) of LEPAD were analyzed. Trends were measured using the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), and the slope index of inequality (SII) and concentration index were used to quantify the absolute and relative inequalities. RESULTS: In 2021, the age-standardized prevalence and mortality rates of LEPAD were 3168.26/10⁵ and 3.09/10⁵, increasing by 4.30% and 19.31% compared to 1990, while YLDs rates decreased by 4.00%. Females had higher age-standardized prevalence and YLDs rates, while males had higher mortality rates. The EAPC for prevalence rates was slightly higher in males (0.22%) than in females (0.17%); while the EAPC of age-standardized mortality rate was 2.02% for females, compared to 1.45% for males. From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized YLDs rates decreased from 16.23/10⁵ to 15.58/10⁵, with a faster decline in females (－0.12%) than in males (－0.06%). LEPAD prevalence varied across countries, with higher burden in Europe and faster growth in Gulf states. Higher socio-demographic index countries had higher prevalence. Inequity improved, with the SII at 52.90/10⁵ and concentration index at 0.038 in 2021. Gender disparities persisted, with concentration index increased to 0.058 in females and reduced to －0.026 in males. CONCLUSIONS LEPAD prevalence and mortality among people aged 40 and above in the Belt and Road partner countries increased, while YLDs rates decreased from 1990 to 2021. Significant differences among people exist depending on gender and country, highlighting the need for enhanced screening, health education, and shared public health strategies across the Belt and Road partner countries.
Humans ; Peripheral Arterial Disease/mortality* ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; Aged ; Prevalence ; Lower Extremity/blood supply* ; Global Burden of Disease ; Cost of Illness

OBJECTIVES: To analyze sex and age distribution of global disease burden of calcific aortic valve disease (CAVD) from 1990 to 2021. METHODS: CAVD data during 1990-2021 were obtained from the IHME website for Global Burden of Disease (GBD). The prevalence, mortality, years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were analyzed by gender and age groups. Joinpoint regression was used to calculate annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC). RESULTS: In 2021, there were 13.32 million CAVD patients and 142 000 deaths caused by CAVD globally. Age-standardized prevalence was higher in males (193.2/10⁵) than that in females (128.9/10⁵). Patients in 65-<85 age group accounted for 64.0% of total cases, while those ≥85 years old accounted for 16.1%. From 1990 to 2021, prevalence increased in both sexes with an AAPC of 0.72% for males and 0.57% for females, respectively. Prevalence grew fastest from 2000 to 2010, slowed thereafter, and declined from 2015 to 2021. In <65 years old, the mortality of males was 2.4 times higher than that of females, while in ≥85 years old, mortality of females (117.3/10⁵) exceeded that of males (99.1/10⁵). YLD rates increased with age, and were higher in males for all age groups. DALY rates decreased overall but increased in ≥85 years old, with a greater increase in females. CONCLUSIONS There are significant gender and age disparities in global disease burden of CAVD, with the elderly, especially super-elderly females deserving particular attention. It is recommended to develop personalized intervention strategies for these populations.
Humans ; Male ; Female ; Aged ; Calcinosis/mortality* ; Prevalence ; Global Burden of Disease ; Aged, 80 and over ; Middle Aged ; Aortic Valve/pathology* ; Aortic Valve Stenosis/epidemiology* ; Age Distribution ; Adult ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Sex Distribution ; Global Health ; Aortic Valve Disease/epidemiology* ; Sex Factors

OBJECTIVES: To analyze the global disease burden of cervical cancer and the association between screening coverage and the quality of disease management. METHODS: The data of global burden of cervical cancer 2021 and the data of cervical cancer screening 2019 were obtained from IHME Global Burden of Disease (GBD) and the WHO global health observatory, respectively. The age-standardized disease burden index was calculated, the quality of care index (QCI) was determined with principal component analysis, and the correlation between QCI and cervical cancer screening coverage was examined with linear regression analysis by regions and populations. RESULTS: The burden of cervical cancer and the quality of management exhibited significant variability across countries with differing levels of social development. The indicators of cervical cancer burden in China were close to the average level of countries with higher socio-demographic index (SDI). The global QCI was 22.22 (10.50, 35.43), and that of China was 26.30. The global screening coverage rate for cervical cancer was 42% (12%, 86%) and that in China was 31%. After adjusting for the social development level of countries, the coverage level of cervical cancer screening was associated with QCI (β=0.27, P<0.01), with no difference between low and high SDI countries (P>0.05). The association was significantly stronger among 25-30 years old women (β=1.48, P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS There are discrepancies in both the disease burden of cervical cancer and the quality of disease management among countries with different socioeconomic levels, and there is still considerable room for improvement in China. Expanding coverage of cervical cancer screening may be an effective strategy to enhance the management quality of cervical cancer, particularly among younger women where the screening benefits are most pronounced.
Humans ; Uterine Cervical Neoplasms/prevention & control* ; Female ; Early Detection of Cancer ; Global Burden of Disease ; China/epidemiology* ; Mass Screening ; Quality of Health Care ; Disease Management ; Adult ; Middle Aged

BACKGROUND: Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) and malaria pose a major health challenge, especially in low- and middle-income countries. METHODS: Initially, we performed a descriptive analysis of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, categorizing data by subtypes. Next, linear regression models were employed to analyze temporal trends. We then utilized four predictive models to forecast the future burden. Additionally, we explored the relationship between estimated annual percentage change (EAPCs) and age-standardized rates (ASRs), as well as Human Development Index (HDI) scores for 2021. Furthermore, decomposition analysis was applied to assess the influence of aging, population dynamics, and epidemiological changes. Lastly, frontier analysis was conducted to examine the connection between disease burden and sociodemographic development. RESULTS: In 2021, NTDs and malaria contributed significantly to the global disease burden, with considerable disparities across genders, age groups, Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions, GBD regions, and individual countries. From 1990 to 2021, both the number of cases and the associated ASRs have shown a recent downward trend. The EAPCs are positively correlated with ASRs and HDI scores. Projections indicate a continued decline in disease burden through 2046. Additionally, our decomposition analysis highlighted the positive impact of aging and epidemiological shifts on the reduction of the disease burden. Finally, frontier analysis revealed that countries and regions with higher SDI scores have greater potential for further reducing their health burden. CONCLUSION While the global burden of NTDs and malaria has improved overall, significant disparities remain across regions and countries. Our findings highlight the importance of implementing targeted intervention strategies and maintaining sustained investments to tackle the ongoing challenges.
Malaria/epidemiology* ; Humans ; Neglected Diseases/epidemiology* ; Global Burden of Disease/trends* ; Global Health/statistics & numerical data* ; Male ; Female ; Tropical Medicine ; Adult ; Cost of Illness ; Child, Preschool ; Middle Aged ; Adolescent ; Young Adult ; Infant

OBJECTIVES: Nasopharyngeal carcinoma is often diagnosed at a late stage due to its concealed location and exhibits marked regional clustering, posing a significant public health challenge in China. This study aims to analyze the disease burden of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China using the latest 2021 Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) database, providing epidemiological evidence for precise prevention and control of nasopharyngeal carcinoma. METHODS: Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), mortality rate, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate were used as indicators of disease burden. Stratified analyses were conducted by age, sex, socio-demographic index (SDI), and relevant risk factors. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model were employed to project ASIR trends through 2050. RESULTS: In 2021, China's age-standardized incidence, mortality, and DALY rates of nasopharyngeal carcinoma were 3.4/100 000, 1.5/100 000, and 48.7/100 000, respectively, all higher than the global average. Across all age groups, Chinese males exhibited higher ASIR, mortality, and DALY rates than females. From 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China decreased gradually with rising SDI. The proportion of nasopharyngeal carcinoma burden attributed to alcohol consumption, smoking, and occupational formaldehyde exposure in China exceeded global levels, especially among males. Projections from both models indicate a rising trend in ASIR for males, females, and the general population in China and globally from 2022 to 2050. CONCLUSIONS Over the past 30 years, the disease burden of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China has decreased with the increasing SDI values but remains higher than the global average. Furthermore, ASIR is projected to increase over the next 30 years. It is imperative for China to enhance healthcare resource allocation for nasopharyngeal carcinoma prevention, diagnosis, and treatment, particularly among high-risk male populations.
Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Male ; Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma/mortality* ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Nasopharyngeal Neoplasms/mortality* ; Adult ; Incidence ; Global Burden of Disease ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Aged ; Risk Factors ; Adolescent ; Databases, Factual ; Young Adult ; Cost of Illness ; Child ; Bayes Theorem

OBJECTIVES: Near vision loss (NVL) is one of the leading causes of visual impairment worldwide, exerting a profound impact on individual quality of life and socio-economic development. This study aims to analyze the burden of NVL in China by sex and age groups from 1990 to 2021 and to project trends over the next 15 years. METHODS: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, we conducted descriptive analyses of NVL prevalence in China, calculated age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rates (ASDR) to compare burden differences between sexes and age groups, and applied an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict NVL trends for the next 15 years. The model selection was based on best-fit criteria to ensure reliable projections. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, China's ASPR of NVL rose from 10 096.24/100 000 to 15 624.54/100 000, and ASDR increased from 101.75/100 000 to 158.75/100 000. In 2021, ASPR (16 551.70/100 000) and ASDR (167.69/100 000) were higher among females than males (14 686.21/100 000 and 149.76/100 000, respectively). China ranked highest globally in both NVL cases and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), with female burden significantly exceeding male burden. Projections indicated this trend and sex gap will persist until 2036. Compared with 1990, the prevalence cases and DALYs increased by 239.20% and 238.82%, respectively in 2021, with the highest burden among females and the 55-59 age group. The ARIMA model predicted continued increases in prevalence and DALYs by 2036, with females maintaining a higher burden than males. CONCLUSIONS This study reveals a marked increase in the NVL burden in China and predicts continued growth in the coming years. Public health policies should prioritize NVL prevention and control, with special attention to women and middle-aged populations to mitigate long-term societal and health impacts.
Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Male ; Female ; Prevalence ; Middle Aged ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Adult ; Global Burden of Disease ; Adolescent ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Aged ; Sex Factors ; Child ; Young Adult ; Child, Preschool ; Cost of Illness ; Infant ; Aged, 80 and over ; Vision Disorders/epidemiology*

BACKGROUND: Spatiotemporal disparities exist in the disease burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) attributable to kidney dysfunction, which has been poorly assessed. The present study aimed to evaluate the spatiotemporal trends of the global burden of NCDs attributable to kidney dysfunction and to predict future trends. METHODS: Data on NCDs attributable to kidney dysfunction, quantified using deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study in 2019. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of age-standardized rate (ASR) was calculated with linear regression to assess the changing trend. Pearson's correlation analysis was used to determine the association between ASR and sociodemographic index (SDI) for 21 GBD regions. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict future trends up to 2040. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2019, the absolute number of deaths and DALYs from NCDs attributable to kidney dysfunction increased globally. The death cases increased from 1,571,720 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1,344,420-1,805,598) in 1990 to 3,161,552 (95% UI: 2,723,363-3,623,814) in 2019 for both sexes combined. Both the ASR of death and DALYs increased in Andean Latin America, the Caribbean, Central Latin America, Southeast Asia, Oceania, and Southern Sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast, the age-standardized metrics decreased in the high-income Asia Pacific region. The relationship between SDI and ASR of death and DALYs was negatively correlated. The BAPC model indicated that there would be approximately 5,806,780 death cases and 119,013,659 DALY cases in 2040 that could be attributed to kidney dysfunction. Age-standardized death of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and CKD attributable to kidney dysfunction were predicted to decrease and increase from 2020 to 2040, respectively. CONCLUSION NCDs attributable to kidney dysfunction remain a major public health concern worldwide. Efforts are required to attenuate the death and disability burden, particularly in low and low-to-middle SDI regions.
Humans ; Noncommunicable Diseases/epidemiology* ; Global Burden of Disease ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Male ; Female ; Risk Factors ; Middle Aged ; Kidney Diseases/epidemiology* ; Bayes Theorem ; Adult ; Aged ; Global Health ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years

BACKGROUND: As an essential part of health services, rehabilitation is of great significance to improve the health and quality of life of the whole population. Accelerating aging calls for a significant expansion of rehabilitation services in China, but rehabilitation needs remain unclear. We conducted the study to explore the rehabilitation needs in China and project the trend of rehabilitation needs from 2020 to 2034. METHODS: The data of health conditions that might potentially benefit from rehabilitation were obtained from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to quantify the trends of the age-standardized rates. Projections of rehabilitation needs were made until 2034 using Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis (BAPC). RESULTS: Approximately 460 million persons (33.3% of the total population) need rehabilitation in China, contributing to 63 million years lived with disabilities (YLDs) in 2019. The number of prevalent cases that need rehabilitation increased from around 268 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 257-282) million in 1990 to almost 460 (95% UI: 443-479) million in 2019, representing an increase of 71.3%. The highest contribution to the need for rehabilitation was musculoskeletal disorders with about 322 (95% UI: 302-343) million persons in seven aggregate disease and injury categories, and hearing loss with over 95 (95% UI: 84-107) million people among 25 health conditions. Based on the projection results, there will be almost 636 million people (45% of the total population) needing rehabilitation services in China by 2034, representing an increase of 38.3%. The rehabilitation needs of neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases, and neurological disorders are expected to increase significantly from 2019 to 2034, with increases of 102.3%, 88.8% and 73.2%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS The need for rehabilitation in China substantially increased over the last 30 years. It is predicted that over two in five people will require rehabilitation by 2034, thus suggesting the need to develop rehabilitation services that meet individuals' rehabilitation needs.
Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Global Burden of Disease ; Female ; Male ; Musculoskeletal Diseases/epidemiology* ; Rehabilitation/trends* ; Quality of Life ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Bayes Theorem

BACKGROUND: Research has indicated that the disease burden of alopecia areata (AA) in China exceeds the global average. Therefore, accurate and updated epidemiological information is crucial for policymakers. In this study, we aimed to comprehensively assess the disease burden of AA in China. METHODS: The following four key indicators were utilized: the prevalence of cases; disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs); the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR); and the age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) of AA according to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2021. We analyzed the epidemiological burden of AA in China during 2021, examined changes between 1990 and 2021, and performed a Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis to predict trends over the course of the next decade (2022-2030). Additionally, a Gaussian process regression model was applied to estimate the relationship between the gross domestic product (GDP) and the ASPR and ASDR of AA at the provincial level between 1992 and 2021. RESULTS: In 2021, the estimated number of patients with AA in China was approximately 3.49 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 3.37-3.62 million); of these patients, 1.20 million (95% UI, 1.16-1.25 million) were male and 2.29 million (95% UI, 2.20-2.37 million) were female. This large number of patients with AA resulted in a total of 114,431.25 DALYs (95% UI, 74,780.27-160,318.96 DALYs). Additionally, the ASPR and ASDR were 224.61 per 100,000 population (95% UI, 216.73-232.65 per 100,000 population) and 7.41 per 100,000 population (95% UI, 4.85-10.44 per 100,000 population), respectively; both of these rates were higher than the global averages. The most affected demographic groups were young and female individuals 25-39 years of age. Slight regional disparities were observed, with the northern and central regions of China bearing comparatively higher burdens. Between 1990 and 2021, the health loss and disease burden caused by AA in China remained relatively stable. The ASPR and ASDR of AA increased with the GDP when the annual GDP was less than 2 trillion Chinese yuan; however, a downward trend was observed as the GDP surpassed 2 trillion Chinese yuan. A slight upward trend in the disease burden of AA in China is predicted to occur over the next decade. CONCLUSIONS AA continues to be a public health concern in China that shows no signs of declining. Targeted efforts for young individuals and females are necessary because they experience a disproportionately high burden of AA.
Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Alopecia Areata/epidemiology* ; Global Burden of Disease ; Female ; Male ; Adult ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Middle Aged ; Prevalence ; Adolescent ; Young Adult ; Bayes Theorem ; Child ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Child, Preschool