BACKGROUND: As an essential part of health services, rehabilitation is of great significance to improve the health and quality of life of the whole population. Accelerating aging calls for a significant expansion of rehabilitation services in China, but rehabilitation needs remain unclear. We conducted the study to explore the rehabilitation needs in China and project the trend of rehabilitation needs from 2020 to 2034. METHODS: The data of health conditions that might potentially benefit from rehabilitation were obtained from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to quantify the trends of the age-standardized rates. Projections of rehabilitation needs were made until 2034 using Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis (BAPC). RESULTS: Approximately 460 million persons (33.3% of the total population) need rehabilitation in China, contributing to 63 million years lived with disabilities (YLDs) in 2019. The number of prevalent cases that need rehabilitation increased from around 268 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 257-282) million in 1990 to almost 460 (95% UI: 443-479) million in 2019, representing an increase of 71.3%. The highest contribution to the need for rehabilitation was musculoskeletal disorders with about 322 (95% UI: 302-343) million persons in seven aggregate disease and injury categories, and hearing loss with over 95 (95% UI: 84-107) million people among 25 health conditions. Based on the projection results, there will be almost 636 million people (45% of the total population) needing rehabilitation services in China by 2034, representing an increase of 38.3%. The rehabilitation needs of neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases, and neurological disorders are expected to increase significantly from 2019 to 2034, with increases of 102.3%, 88.8% and 73.2%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS The need for rehabilitation in China substantially increased over the last 30 years. It is predicted that over two in five people will require rehabilitation by 2034, thus suggesting the need to develop rehabilitation services that meet individuals' rehabilitation needs.
Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Global Burden of Disease ; Female ; Male ; Musculoskeletal Diseases/epidemiology* ; Rehabilitation/trends* ; Quality of Life ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Bayes Theorem

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the current status and temporal trends of the disease burden of spinal fractures in China from 1990 to 2021 based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021), aiming to provide evidence for developing prevention and treatment strategies. METHODS: Epidemiological data on spinal fractures in China, the United States of America (USA), and globally were extracted from the GBD 2021 database. Joinpoint regression models were applied to analyze temporal trends. Age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates were calculated, with comparisons of gender- and age-group disparities. RESULTS: In 2021, the number of incident cases, prevalent cases, and DALYs of spinal fractures in China increased by 52.28%, 113.68%, and 106.98%, respectively, compared to 1990. The age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rates rose by 11.80%, 16.11%, and 14.79%, respectively. The disease burden escalated significantly with age, peaking in individuals aged ≥75 years. Males exhibited higher age-standardized incidence and DALYs rates than females. Comparative analysis revealed that the age-standardized DALYs rate in China (4.19/100 000) was lower than that in globally (6.62/100 000) and USA (15.92/100 000). However, China showed an upward trend [annual average percentage change (AAPC)=0.19%], contrasting with a declining trend in the USA (AAPC=-0.08%). CONCLUSION The escalating disease burden of spinal fractures in China is closely linked to population aging, gender disparities, and insufficient targeted prevention policies. Future strategies should integrate age- and gender-specific interventions, including strengthened osteoporosis prevention, trauma risk control, and big data-driven precision measures, to mitigate this burden.
Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Global Burden of Disease/trends* ; Male ; Female ; Spinal Fractures/epidemiology* ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Prevalence ; Incidence ; Adult ; Young Adult ; Adolescent ; Aged, 80 and over ; United States/epidemiology* ; Cost of Illness ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Child

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the disease burden of pelvic fractures at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2023 using data from the 2023 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), and to predict the disease burden through 2050. METHODS: Leveraging data from the GBD 2023, this study investigated the disease burden of pelvic fractures across 204 countries and regions. Assessment indicators included incidence rate, prevalence rate, and years lived with disability (YLDs). The Joinpoint regression model was employed to analyze trends in pelvic fracture burden from 1990 to 2023, while the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was used to quantify this temporal trend. The relationship between the socio-demographic index and pelvic fracture burden was evaluated. Furthermore, the long short-term memory (LSTM) model was applied to predict trends in pelvic fracture burden through 2050. RESULTS: In 2023, the estimated number of new pelvic fracture cases globally was 7 479 884 [95% uncertainty interval ( UI): 5 293 401-10 611 876], representing a 42.74% increase from 1990. In the same year, the number of prevalent pelvic fracture cases and YLDs were 23 007 508 (95% UI: 21 021 518-25 327 165) and 3 909 228 person-years (95% UI: 2 725 498-5 194 385), respectively. Additionally, age-standardized rates exhibited an opposing downward trend. Significant disparities in the disease burden of pelvic fractures were identified across different age groups, genders, and social contexts. According to predictions from the LSTM model, the global age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of pelvic fractures will be approximately 88.44 per 100 000 persons by 2050, while the total number of incident cases will rise to 8 547 095. CONCLUSION Although the overall incidence rate, prevalence rate, and YLDs of pelvic fractures have exhibited an upward trend over the past three decades, the ASIR, age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and age-standardized years of life lost rate (ASYR) have shown a downward trend. It is predicted that over the upcoming 26-year period, the age-standardized rate of disease burden due to pelvic fractures will further decrease, while the number of incident cases and prevalent cases will continue to exhibit an upward trend. Formulating more targeted disease prevention strategies is critical to addressing disparities across genders, regions, and other dimensions, and to mitigating the burden of pelvic fractures.
Humans ; Fractures, Bone/epidemiology* ; Pelvic Bones/injuries* ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; Incidence ; Prevalence ; Aged ; Global Burden of Disease/trends* ; Global Health ; Adolescent ; Cost of Illness ; Young Adult ; Forecasting ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Memory, Short-Term

BACKGROUND: Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) and malaria pose a major health challenge, especially in low- and middle-income countries. METHODS: Initially, we performed a descriptive analysis of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, categorizing data by subtypes. Next, linear regression models were employed to analyze temporal trends. We then utilized four predictive models to forecast the future burden. Additionally, we explored the relationship between estimated annual percentage change (EAPCs) and age-standardized rates (ASRs), as well as Human Development Index (HDI) scores for 2021. Furthermore, decomposition analysis was applied to assess the influence of aging, population dynamics, and epidemiological changes. Lastly, frontier analysis was conducted to examine the connection between disease burden and sociodemographic development. RESULTS: In 2021, NTDs and malaria contributed significantly to the global disease burden, with considerable disparities across genders, age groups, Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions, GBD regions, and individual countries. From 1990 to 2021, both the number of cases and the associated ASRs have shown a recent downward trend. The EAPCs are positively correlated with ASRs and HDI scores. Projections indicate a continued decline in disease burden through 2046. Additionally, our decomposition analysis highlighted the positive impact of aging and epidemiological shifts on the reduction of the disease burden. Finally, frontier analysis revealed that countries and regions with higher SDI scores have greater potential for further reducing their health burden. CONCLUSION While the global burden of NTDs and malaria has improved overall, significant disparities remain across regions and countries. Our findings highlight the importance of implementing targeted intervention strategies and maintaining sustained investments to tackle the ongoing challenges.
Malaria/epidemiology* ; Humans ; Neglected Diseases/epidemiology* ; Global Burden of Disease/trends* ; Global Health/statistics & numerical data* ; Male ; Female ; Tropical Medicine ; Adult ; Cost of Illness ; Child, Preschool ; Middle Aged ; Adolescent ; Young Adult ; Infant

OBJECTIVES: To conduct a comprehensive analysis of the global burden of diarrheal diseases in children under 5 years. METHODS: The data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 were analyzed to assess the incidence, mortality rates and average annual percentage changes (AAPC) of diarrhea among children under 5 years across nations(regions) and GBD regions from 1990 to 2021 using joinpoint regression. Smoothed curve regression was employed to explore the correlation of diarrheal disease burden with the Social Development Index (SDI) and for analyzing the burden of specific diarrheal pathogens. The Slope and Concentration Indices quantified disparities across SDI levels and the future trend were projected by the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, the global incidence (AAPC: -3.65) and mortality (AAPC: -5.15) rates of diarrheal diseases declined steadily in children below 5 years. In 2021, neonates (<28 days) were the most affected, with an incidence rate of 138 058.74 per 100 000 and a mortality rate of 251.14 per 100 000. Rotavirus was the leading cause of death. The incidence rate of diarrheal diseases was negatively correlated with SDI, and the Concentration Index decreased from -0.293 in 1990 to -0.314 in 2021 without a significant gender difference. The BAPC model suggested that the global incidence rate of diarrheal diseases tends to decrease progressively from 2022 to 2050, with a predicted rate of 23 448.04 per 100 000 for male and 29 932.59 per 100 000 for female by 2050. CONCLUSIONS Despite the reduction in the global burden of diarrhea and the projection of its further decline, diarrheal diseases disproportionately affect neonates and low-SDI regions. While rotavirus remains the primary etiological agent worldwide, the predominant pathogens vary by nations (regions) and GBD regions, and strengthened interventions targeting vulnerable populations are needed.
Humans ; Child, Preschool ; Diarrhea/mortality* ; Infant ; Incidence ; Infant, Newborn ; Global Burden of Disease/trends* ; Global Health ; Male ; Bayes Theorem ; Female

Congenital musculoskeletal and limb deformities (CMLD) seriously affect the physical and mental health of patients, and pose great challenges to healthcare systems worldwide. We explored the specific situation and changes of incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years rates, and mortality of CMLD in under-5 children from 1990 to 2021 in different groups, including different regions, periods, genders and socio-demographic indices (SDI), through corresponding analytical models. Overall, the global disease burden of CMLD in under-5 children has decreased from 1990 to 2021. The disease burden of CMLD in under-5 children varied significantly among different regions and countries, and there was a strong correlation between the corresponding burden of disease and the level of SDI. In addition, cross-country inequality analysis showed that while absolute inequalities in the disease burden of CMLD in under-5 children have improved, relative inequalities have worsened. It is essential to reduce the global health impact of CMLD by implementing targeted interventions to improve health care in underdeveloped areas.
Humans ; Global Burden of Disease/trends* ; Child, Preschool ; Global Health/statistics & numerical data* ; Infant ; Male ; Prevalence ; Limb Deformities, Congenital/mortality* ; Musculoskeletal Abnormalities/mortality* ; Female ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Incidence ; Infant, Newborn ; Cost of Illness ; Socioeconomic Factors

OBJECTIVE: Asthma imposes a significant global health burden. This study examines changes in the asthma-related disease burden from 1990 to 2021 and projects future burdens for 2050 under different scenarios. METHODS: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study, we analyzed asthma incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2021. We projected the disease burden for 2050 based on current trends and hypothetical scenarios in which all risk factors are controlled. Temporal trends in age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALY rates were explored using Annual Percent Change. RESULTS: In 2021, the age-standardized rates for asthma incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs in China were 364.17 per 100,000 (95% uncertainty interval [ UI]: 283.22-494.10), 1,956.49 per 100,000 (95% UI: 1,566.68-2,491.87), 1.47 per 100,000 (95% UI: 1.15-1.79), and 103.76 per 100,000 (95% UI: 72.50-145.46), respectively. A higher disease burden was observed among Chinese men and individuals aged 70 years or older. Compared to the current trend, a combined scenario involving improvements in environmental factors, behavioral and metabolic health, child nutrition, and vaccination resulted in a greater reduction in the disease burden caused by asthma. CONCLUSION Addressing modifiable risk factors is essential for further reducing the asthma-related disease burden.
Humans ; Asthma/mortality* ; China/epidemiology* ; Male ; Female ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Child ; Adolescent ; Global Burden of Disease/trends* ; Child, Preschool ; Young Adult ; Infant ; Cost of Illness ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Prevalence ; Incidence ; Infant, Newborn ; Aged, 80 and over ; Risk Factors

BACKGROUND: Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) imposes a significant economic and social burden in China. We aim to assess the epidemiological trends of IBD in China, and to predict the burden in the near future. METHODS: The incidence, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life year (DALYs) of IBD from 1990 to 2021 were obtained from Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), average annual percent change, total percent change, and age-period-cohort model were used to access trends. Bayesian age-period-cohort model was utilized to predict the risk of incidence and mortality. RESULTS: In 2021, IBD affected 168,077 people in China, with 24,941 new cases and 5640 deaths. The age-standardized rate (ASR) of incidence and death was 1.4 and 0.3, respectively. The incidence and prevalence in China were lower than the global and high socio-demographic index (SDI) regions, but the ASR of incidence and prevalence (EAPC: 2.93 and 2.54, respectively) had rapidly increased from 1990 to 2021. The ASR of death and DALYs had significantly decreased (EAPC: -3.05 and -2.93, respectively). Middle-aged and elderly populations faced a severe burden of incidence and prevalence, while the elderly population faced a severe mortality burden. It is projected that by 2035, the ASR of incidence will continue to rise, whereas the death rate will continue to decline. CONCLUSIONS The burden of IBD in China is serious and increasingly severe. Establishing a comprehensive disease management system in China will help better control the medical burden of IBD.
Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Inflammatory Bowel Diseases/epidemiology* ; Male ; Global Burden of Disease/trends* ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; Prevalence ; Incidence ; Adolescent ; Aged ; Young Adult ; Bayes Theorem ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Child