OBJECTIVE: To compare the expected population impact of benefit and risk of aspirin treatment strategies for the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases recommended by different guidelines in the Chinese Electronic Health Records Research in Yinzhou (CHERRY) study. METHODS: A decision-analytic Markov model was used to simulate and compare different strategies of aspirin treatment, including: Strategy ①: Aspirin treatment for Chinese adults aged 40-69 years with a high 10-year cardiovascular risk, recommended by the 2020 Chinese Guideline on the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Diseases; Strategy ②: Aspirin treatment for Chinese adults aged 40-59 years with a high 10-year cardiovascular risk, recommended by the 2022 United States Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement on Aspirin Use to Prevent Cardiovascular Disease; Strategy ③: Aspirin treatment for Chinese adults aged 40-69 years with a high 10-year cardiovascular risk and blood pressure well-controlled (< 150/90 mmHg), recommended by the 2019 Guideline on the Assessment and Management of Cardio-vascular Risk in China. The high 10-year cardiovascular risk was defined as the 10-year predicted risk over 10% based on the 2019 World Health Organization non-laboratory model. The Markov model simulated different strategies for ten years (cycles) with parameters mainly from the CHERRY study or published literature. Quality-adjusted life year (QALY) and the number needed to treat (NNT) for each ischemic event (including myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke) were calculated to assess the effectiveness of the different strategies. The number needed to harm (NNH) for each bleeding event (including hemorrhagic stroke and gastrointestinal bleeding) was calculated to assess the safety. The NNT for each net benefit (i.e., the difference of the number of ischemic events could be prevented and the number of bleeding events would be added) was also calculated. One-way sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty of the incidence rate of cardiovascular diseases and probabilistic sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty of hazard ratios of interventions were conducted. RESULTS: A total of 212 153 Chinese adults, were included in this study. The number of people who were recommended for aspirin treatment Strategies ①-③ was 34 235, 2 813, and 25 111, respectively. The Strategy ③ could gain the most QALY of 403 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 222-511] years. Compared with Strategy ①, Strategy ③ had similar efficiency but better safety, with the extra NNT of 4 (95%UI: 3-4) and NNH of 39 (95%UI: 19-132). The NNT per net benefit was 131 (95%UI: 102-239) for Strategy ①, 256 (95%UI: 181-737) for Strategy ②, and 132 (95%UI: 104-232) for Strategy ③, making Strategy ③ the most favorable option with a better QALY and safety, along with similar efficiency in terms of net benefit. The results were consistent in the sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION The aspirin treatment strategies recommended by the updated guidelines on the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases showed a net benefit for high-risk Chinese adults from developed areas. However, to balance effectiveness and safety, aspirin is suggested to be used for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases with consideration for blood pressure control, resulting in better intervention efficiency.
Adult ; Humans ; Aspirin/therapeutic use* ; Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology* ; Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage ; Myocardial Infarction/prevention & control* ; Primary Prevention/methods* ; Middle Aged ; Aged

China/epidemiology* ; Environmental Monitoring ; Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage/etiology* ; Humans ; Meteorological Concepts ; Particulate Matter ; Seasons

To explore the differences in biological characteristics for the small gastrointestinal stromal tumors and the incidence of complications and recurrence between the traditional surgical treatment and endoscopic treatment.
 Methods: We collected the relevant clinical and pathological data from patients who were diagnosed as gastrointestinal stromal tumors with the diameter less than 2 cm by the Department of Pathology of Xiangya Hospital from January 2009 to December 2015. The complications and recurrence after the surgical treatment were analyzed.
 Results: In patients with small gastrointestinal stromal tumors, the proportion of female was higher than that of male (male:female=1:1.69). The median age for patient with this disease was 49 years old and it was more common in middle-aged and elderly. Most lesions were found in the stomach, followed by the esophagus and the small intestine. The small gastrointestinal stromal tumors occurred in the colon and rectum were rare. There was 60.3% (47/78) patients with abdominal pain, 7.7% (6/78) patients with hematochezia or melena, and 98.7% (78/79) with small gastrointestinal stromal tumors' mitotic count ≤5/50 HPF. The positive rates for CD, CD34, DOG-1, actin-smooth, and S-100 were 98.7%, 86.1%, 82.3%, 31.6%, and 24.1%, respectively. Three patients occurred surgical complications, 2 suffered recurrence during the follow-up. There was no significant difference in the incidence of complications and recurrence between the traditional surgical treatment and endoscopic treatment (P>0.05).
 Conclusion: Small gastrointestinal stromal tumors' malignant potential is low, and the recurrence and metastasis rate is low. Its biological behavior tends to be benign. The traditional surgical treatment and endoscopic treatment are both safe and effective for small gastrointestinal stromal tumor. Endoscopic treatment has the advantages in lower cost, shorter hospitalization time, and small trauma. Therefore, endoscopic treatment could be the first choice for small GIST resection under the condition of mature endoscopic technology.
Aged ; Endoscopy, Gastrointestinal ; Female ; Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage ; etiology ; Gastrointestinal Neoplasms ; complications ; pathology ; surgery ; Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors ; complications ; pathology ; surgery ; Humans ; Incidence ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Neoplasm Recurrence, Local ; Postoperative Complications ; epidemiology ; Retrospective Studies ; Tumor Burden

OBJECTIVETo investigate the clinical epidemiology change trend of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) over the past 15 years.

METHODSConsecutive patients who was diagnosed as continuous UGIB in the endoscopy center of The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun-Yat University during the period from 1 January 1997 to 31 December 1998 and the period from 1 January 2012 to 31 December 2013 were enrolled in this study. Their gender, age, etiology, ulcer classification, endoscopic treatment and hospitalization mortality were compared between two periods.

RESULTSIn periods from 1997 to 1998 and 2012 to 2013, the detection rate of UGIB was 9.99%(928/9 287) and 4.49%(1 092/24 318)(χ=360.089, P=0.000); the percentage of male patients was 73.28%(680/928) and 72.44% (791/1 092) (χ=0.179, P=0.672), and the onset age was (47.3±16.4) years and (51.4±18.2) years (t=9.214, P=0.002) respectively. From 1997 to 1998, the first etiology of UGIB was peptic ulcer bleeding, accounting for 65.2%(605/928)[duodenal ulcer 47.8%(444/928), gastric ulcer 8.3%(77/928), stomal ulcer 2.3%(21/928), compound ulcer 6.8%(63/928)],the second was cancer bleeding(7.0%,65/928), and the third was esophageal and gastric varices bleeding (6.4%,59/928). From 2012 to 2013, peptic ulcer still was the first cause of UGIB, but the ratio obviously decreased to 52.7%(575/1092)(χ=32.467, P=0.000)[duodenal ulcer 31.9%(348/1092), gastric ulcer 9.4%(103/1092), stomal ulcer 2.8%(30/1092), compound ulcer 8.6%(94/1092)]. The decreased ratio of duodenal ulcer bleeding was the main reason (χ=53.724, P=0.000). Esophageal and gastric varices bleeding became the second cause (15.1%,165/1 092, χ=38.976, P=0.000), and cancer was the third cause (9.2%,101/1 092, χ=3.352, P=0.067). The largest increasing amplitude of the onset age was peptic ulcer bleeding [(46.2±16.7) years vs. (51.9±18.9) years, t=-5.548, P=0.000), and the greatest contribution to the amplitude was duodenal ulcer bleeding [(43.4±15.9) years vs. (48.4±19.4) years, t=-3.935, P=0.000], while the onset age of esophageal and gastric varices bleeding [(49.8±14.1) years vs. (48.8±13.9) years, t=0.458, P=0.648] and cancer [(58.4±13.4) years vs. (58.9±16.7) years, t=-0.196, P=0.845] did not change significantly. Compared with the period from 1997 to 1998, the detection rate of high risk peptic ulcer rebleeding (Forrest stage I(a, I(b, II(a and II(b) increased (χ=39.958, P=0.000) in the period from 2012 to 2013. From 1997 to 1998, 54 patients underwent endoscopic treatment, and the achievement ratio of hemostasis was 79.6% (43/54). From 2012 to 2013, 261 patients underwent endoscopic treatment and the achievement ratio of hemostasis was 96.9%(253/261), which was significantly higher (χ=23.287, P=0.000). Compared to the period from 1997 to 1998, more patients with variceal bleeding or non-variceal bleeding received endoscopic treatment in time (39.0% vs. 70.3%, χ=51.930, P=0.000; 3.6% vs. 15.6%, χ=62.292, P=0.000, respectively), and higher ratio of patients staging Forrest stage I(a to II(b also received endoscopic treatment in the period from 2012 to 2013 [27.4%(26/95) vs. 68.5%(111/162), χ=40.739, P=0.000]. More qualified endoscopic hemostatic techniques were used, containing thermocoagulation (0 vs. 15.2%, χ=79.518, P=0.000), hemostatic clip (0 vs. 55.9%, χ=20.879, P=0.000), hemostatic clip combined with thermocoagulation (4.3% vs. 16.4%, χ=5.154, P=0.023), while less single injection was used (87.1% vs. 6.2%, χ=10.420, P=0.001), and single spraying for hemostasis was completely abandoned in the period from 2012 to 2013. The ratio of inpatients undergoing reoperation decreased obviously in the period from 2012 to 2013 [9.3%(86/928) vs. 6.0%(65/1092), χ=7.970, P=0.005], while no significant difference was found in mortality during hospitalization between two periods.

CONCLUSIONCompared with the period from 1997 to1998, the mean onset age of UGIB increased, and the ratio of peptic ulcer bleeding decreased due to the reduction of duodenal ulcer bleeding, the detection rate of high risk peptic ulcer rebleeding increased, the cure rate of endoscopic treatment for UGIB increased, more reasonable and immediate hemostatic methods were used, but overall mortality did not change obviously in the period from 2012 to 2013.

Adult ; Age of Onset ; Aged ; Electrocoagulation ; methods ; trends ; Endoscopy, Digestive System ; trends ; Esophageal and Gastric Varices ; pathology ; therapy ; Esophagus ; pathology ; Female ; Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage ; classification ; epidemiology ; etiology ; mortality ; Gastrointestinal Neoplasms ; pathology ; Hemostasis, Endoscopic ; methods ; trends ; Hemostatic Techniques ; trends ; Hemostatics ; therapeutic use ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Peptic Ulcer ; pathology ; therapy ; Peptic Ulcer Hemorrhage ; pathology ; therapy ; Reoperation ; trends ; Stomach Ulcer ; pathology ; therapy ; Surgical Instruments ; trends ; Ulcer ; epidemiology ; therapy

Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are well known to be associated with serious upper gastrointestinal complications, such as peptic ulcer, bleeding, perforation, and obstruction. Recently, attention has been mainly focused on the small bowel injuries caused by NSAIDs, and new endoscopic techniques such as capsule endoscopy and double balloon endoscopy can help in detecting such injuries. This article reviewed the epidemiology, pathogenesis, clinical manifestations, diagnosis, and treatment of small bowel injuries caused by NSAIDs. Small bowel injures by NSAIDs might occur with a similar frequency and extent as those observed in the upper gastrointestinal tract. The pathogenesis of NSAID-induced enteropathy is complex and not clearly understood. The various lesions observed in the small bowel, including petechiae, reddened folds, loss of villi, erosions, and ulcers can be detected by capsule endoscopy. A drug that could prevent or treat NSAID-induced enteropathy has not yet been developed. Therefore, further investigations should be performed to elucidate the pathogenesis of such enteropathy and develop suitable preventive and treatment strategies.
Anti-Inflammatory Agents, Non-Steroidal ; Capsule Endoscopy ; Diagnosis ; Endoscopy ; Epidemiology ; Hemorrhage ; Peptic Ulcer ; Purpura ; Ulcer ; Upper Gastrointestinal Tract

OBJECTIVETo compare clinically relevant postoperative complications after open, laparoscopic, and robotic gastrectomy for gastric cancer.

METHODSClinical data of patients with gastric cancer who underwent gastrectomy between January 1, 2014 and October 1, 2016 at Chinese People's Liberation Army General Hospital were analyzed retrospectively. All the patients were diagnosed by upper endoscopy and confirmed by biopsy without distant metastasis. They were confirmed with R0 resection by postoperative pathology. Patients with incomplete data were excluded. The complications among open group, laparoscopic group and robotic group were compared. The continuous variables were analyzed by one-way ANOVA, and categorical variables were analyzed by χtest or Fisher exact test.

RESULTSA total of 1 791 patients (1 320 males and 471 females) were included in the study, aged from 17 to 98 (59.0±11.6) years, comprising 922 open, 673 laparoscopic and 196 robotic gastrectomies. There were no significant differences among three groups in baseline data (gender, age, BMI, comorbidity, radiochemotherapy) and some of operative or postoperative data (blood transfusion, number of lymph node dissection, combined organ resection, resection site, N stage, postoperative hospital stay). The blood loss in laparoscopic and robotic groups was significantly lower than that in open group[(185.7±139.6) ml and (194.0±187.6) ml vs. (348.2±408.5) ml, F=59.924, P=0.000]. The postoperative complication occurred in 197 of 1 791(11.0%) patients. The Clavien-Dindo II(, III(a, III(b, IIII(a, and IIIII( complications were 5.5%, 4.0%, 1.2%, 0.1%, and 0.2% respectively. The anastomotic leakage (2.4%), intestinal obstruction(1.3%) and pulmonary infection(1.2%) were the three most common complications, followed by wound infection(0.8%), cardiovascular disease(0.7%), anastomotic bleeding (0.7%), delayed gastric emptying (0.6%), duodenal stump fistula(0.5%), intraperitoneal hemorrhage (0.5%), pancreatic fistula (0.3%), intra-abdominal infection(0.2%), chylous leakage (0.1%) and other complications(1.7%). There were no significant differences among three groups as the complication rates of open, laparoscopic and robotic gastrectomy were 10.6%(98/922), 10.8%(73/673) and 13.3%(26/196) respectively (χ=1.173, P=0.566). But anastomotic leakage occurred more common after laparoscopic and robotic gastrectomy compared to open gastrectomy [3.1%(21/673) and 5.1%(10/196) vs. 1.3%(12/922), χ=12.345, P=0.002]. The rate of cardiocerebral vascular diseases was higher in open group[1.3%(12/922) vs. 0.1%(1/673) and 0, χ=8.786, P=0.012]. And the rate of anastomotic bleeding was higher in robotic group [2.0%(4/196) vs. open 0.4%(4/922) and laparoscopic 0.6%(4/673), χ=6.365, P=0.041]. In view of Clavien-Dindo classification, III(a complications occurred more common in laparoscopic group [5.5%(37/673) vs. open 3.3%(30/922) and robotic 2.6%(5/196), χ=6.308, P=0.043] and III(b complications occurred more common in robotic group [3.1%(6/196) vs. open 1.1%(10/922) and laparoscopic 0.7%(5/673), χ=7.167, P=0.028].

CONCLUSIONSMorbidities of postoperative complications are comparable among open, laparoscopic and robotic gastrectomy for gastric cancer. However, in consideration of the high difficulty of anastomosis, the minimally invasive surgery should be performed by more experienced surgeons.

Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Anastomotic Leak ; epidemiology ; etiology ; Blood Loss, Surgical ; statistics & numerical data ; Cerebrovascular Disorders ; epidemiology ; etiology ; Chylous Ascites ; epidemiology ; etiology ; Comorbidity ; Comparative Effectiveness Research ; Duodenal Diseases ; epidemiology ; etiology ; Female ; Gastrectomy ; adverse effects ; methods ; Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage ; epidemiology ; etiology ; Gastroparesis ; epidemiology ; etiology ; Gastroscopy ; Hemoperitoneum ; epidemiology ; etiology ; Humans ; Intestinal Fistula ; epidemiology ; etiology ; Intraabdominal Infections ; epidemiology ; etiology ; Laparoscopy ; adverse effects ; Length of Stay ; Lymph Node Excision ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Postoperative Complications ; epidemiology ; etiology ; Postoperative Hemorrhage ; epidemiology ; etiology ; Postoperative Period ; Respiratory Tract Infections ; epidemiology ; etiology ; Retrospective Studies ; Risk Assessment ; Robotic Surgical Procedures ; adverse effects ; Stomach Neoplasms ; surgery ; Surgical Wound Infection ; epidemiology ; etiology

INTRODUCTIONLarge, recent population-based data for evaluating the predictors of oesophageal variceal bleeding (OVB) among cirrhotic patients is still lacking. This study aimed to determine the cumulative incidence of OVB among cirrhotic patients and identify the predictors of OVB occurrence.

METHODSPatient information on 38,172 cirrhotic patients without a history of OVB, who were discharged between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2007, was obtained from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Database for this study. All patients were followed up for three years. Death was the competing risk when calculating the cumulative incidences and hazard ratios (HRs) of OVB.

RESULTSOVB was present in 2,609 patients (OVB group) and absent in 35,563 patients (non-OVB group) at hospitalisation. During the three-year follow-up period, the cumulative incidence of OVB was 44.5% and 11.3% in the OVB and non-OVB group, respectively (p < 0.001). Modified Cox regression analysis showed that the HR of OVB history was 4.42 for OVB occurrence (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.13-4.74). Other predictors for OVB occurrence included hepatocellular carcinoma (HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.09-1.24), young age (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.98-0.98), ascites (HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.37-1.56), alcohol-related disorders (HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.12-1.28), peptic ulcer bleeding (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.13-1.41) and diabetes mellitus (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.06-1.23).

CONCLUSIONCirrhotic patients have a fourfold increased risk of future OVB following the first incidence of OVB.

Adult ; Aged ; Alcoholism ; complications ; Ascites ; complications ; Carcinoma, Hepatocellular ; complications ; Databases, Factual ; Diabetes Complications ; Esophageal and Gastric Varices ; epidemiology ; etiology ; Female ; Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage ; epidemiology ; etiology ; Humans ; Incidence ; Liver Cirrhosis ; complications ; physiopathology ; Liver Neoplasms ; complications ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Peptic Ulcer ; complications ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Recurrence ; Retrospective Studies ; Risk ; Taiwan

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is often performed therapeutically, and antithrombotic treatment is required for at least 12 months after stent implantation. However, the development of post-PCI upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) increases morbidity and mortality. We investigated the incidence and risk factors for UGIB in Korean patients within 1 year after PCI. METHODS: The medical records of 3,541 patients who had undergone PCI between January 2006 and June 2012 were retrospectively reviewed. We identified 40 cases of UGIB. We analyzed the incidence and clinical risk factors associated with UGIB occurring within 1 year after PCI by comparing the results for each case to matched controls. The propensity score matching method using age and sex was utilized. RESULTS: UGIB occurred in 40 patients (1.1%). Two independent risk factors for UGIB were a history of peptic ulcer disease (odds ratio [OR], 12.68; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.70 to 59.66; p=0.001) and the use of anticoagulants (OR, 7.76; 95% CI, 2.10 to 28.66; p=0.002). CONCLUSIONS: UGIB after PCI occurred at a rate of 1.1% in the study population. Clinicians must remain vigilant for the possibility of UGIB after PCI and should consider performing timely endoscopy in patients who have undergone PCI and are suspected of having an UGIB.
Aged ; Anticoagulants/adverse effects ; Case-Control Studies ; Female ; Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage/epidemiology/*etiology ; Humans ; Incidence ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Peptic Ulcer/complications ; Percutaneous Coronary Intervention/*adverse effects ; *Postoperative Complications ; Propensity Score ; Republic of Korea/epidemiology ; Retrospective Studies ; Risk Factors

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Hepatic damage during transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is a critical complication in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Apart from its role in preventing HBV reactivation, there is some evidence for the benefits of preemptive antiviral therapy in TACE. This study evaluated the effect of preemptive antiviral therapy on acute hepatic deterioration following TACE. METHODS: This retrospective observational study included a prospectively collected cohort of 108 patients with HBV-related HCC who underwent TACE between January 2007 and January 2013. Acute hepatic deterioration following TACE was evaluated. Treatment-related hepatic decompensation was defined as newly developed encephalopathy, ascites, variceal bleeding, elevation of the bilirubin level, prolongation of prothrombin time, or elevation of the Child-Pugh score by ≥2 within 2 weeks following TACE. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to identify factors influencing treatment-related decompensation. Preemptive antiviral therapy involves directing prophylaxis only toward high-risk chronic hepatitis B patients in an attempt to prevent the progression of liver disease. We regarded at least 6 months as a significant duration of preemptive antiviral treatment before diagnosis of HCC. RESULTS: Of the 108 patients, 30 (27.8%) patients received preemptive antiviral therapy. Treatment-related decompensation was observed in 25 (23.1%) patients during the follow-up period. Treatment-related decompensation following TACE was observed more frequently in the nonpreemptive group than in the preemptive group (29.5% vs. 6.7%, P=0.008). In the multivariate analysis, higher serum total bilirubin (Hazard ratio [HR] =3.425, P=0.013), hypoalbuminemia (HR=3.990, P=0.015), and absence of antiviral therapy (HR=7.597, P=0.006) were significantly associated with treatment-related hepatic decompensation. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that preemptive antiviral therapy significantly reduces the risk of acute hepatic deterioration. Preventing hepatic deterioration during TACE by applying such a preemptive approach may facilitate the continuation of anticancer therapy and thus improve long-term outcomes.
Aged ; Antiviral Agents/*therapeutic use ; Bilirubin/blood ; Carcinoma, Hepatocellular/*therapy ; Chemoembolization, Therapeutic/*adverse effects ; Female ; Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage/etiology ; Guanine/*analogs & derivatives/therapeutic use ; Hepatitis B/complications/*drug therapy ; Humans ; Hypoalbuminemia/etiology ; Incidence ; Liver/physiopathology ; Liver Diseases/epidemiology/*etiology ; Liver Neoplasms/*therapy ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Retrospective Studies ; Risk Factors ; Treatment Outcome

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The aim of this study was to identify the ability of Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS) and pre-endoscopic Rockall score (pre-E RS) to predict the occurrence of hypotension in patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding who are initially normotensive at emergency department. METHODS: Retrospective observational study was conducted at Asan Medical Center emergency department (ED) in patients who presented with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding from January 1, 2011 to December 31, 2013. Study population was divided according to the development of hypotension, and demographics, comorbidities, and laboratory findings were compared. GBS and pre-E RS were estimated to predict the occurrence of hypotension. RESULTS: A total of 747 patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding were included during the study period, and 120 (16.1%) patients developed hypotesion within 24 hours after ED admission. The median values GBS and pre-E RS were statistically different according to the occurrence of hypotension (8.0 vs. 10.0, 2.0 vs. 3.0, respectively; p<0.001). In the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis of hypotension development, the area under the curve of GBS and pre-E RS were 66% and 64%, respectively. The sensitivity and the specificity of GBS using optimal cut-off value were 81% and 46%, respectively, while those based on the pre-E RS were 74% and 46%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: GBS and pre-E RS were both not sufficient for predicting the occurrence of hypotension in non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Development of other scoring systems are needed.
Adult ; Aged ; Area Under Curve ; Demography ; Emergency Service, Hospital ; Female ; Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage/complications/*diagnosis/pathology ; Humans ; Hypotension/epidemiology/*etiology ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Predictive Value of Tests ; ROC Curve ; Retrospective Studies ; Severity of Illness Index ; Upper Gastrointestinal Tract